Jacob deGrom

Jake Will Be Great

Sure I could’ve gone with deGrominant or some other meme. They’re childish (in a good way) and fun. However, this is a serious time. It’s a time for men. 

This is Jacob deGrom‘s time. He was supposed to be a reliever, but he forced his way into the starting rotation. He became the Rookie of the Year. He became an All Star. He was THE STORY of the All Star Game. He earned the right to be the Game One starter. He was deGrominant in that game (sorry, I couldn’t help myself). 

You know what else?  He’s been a stopper this year:

He has given the Mets a chance to win whenever they needed it most. That’s tonight. If all of this doesn’t show you he has an advantage tonight, there’s this:

https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/654462405716504577

There is every reason to believe he will be great tonight. There are legitimate reasons to believe deGrom will be better than Zack Greinke. Seriously, you have to invent reasons why deGrom and the Mets won’t be great tonight. 

The Mets have a huge game tonight. I’m confident they can win tonight because they have deGrom on the mound, and he will be great.

Lets Go Mets!

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Jake and the Fatman

This postseason the Mets have had two breakout pitching stars: Jacob deGrom and Bartolo Colon. 

deGrom came out in Game 1, and had a historic night. Anytime you’re in the conversation with Tom Seaver, you know you’re in rarified air. He has proven that the Mets made the right decision in making him the Game 1 starter. If the pitched anything like Game 1 of the All Star team, the Mets will be in great shape. 

If the Mets need to go to the bullpen, they can go to the suddenly reliable Colon. In this NLDS , Colon has pitched in three games going four innings allowing not much more than a homerun to Adrian Gonzalez. He’s struck out five, and he has a 0.750 WHIP. He’s become the Mets best and most reliable reliever not named Jeurys Familia. 

Tonight, in this do or die Game 5, all hands are on deck. Hopefully, the Mets won’t need anyone else besides Jake and the Fatman before handing the ball to Familia for the save. If the Mets follow this formal they will earn a trip to the NLCS. 

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There’s Reason to Hope

The Mets have to play a do or die Game 5 at Dodger Stadium against Zack Greinke. It’s a seemingly daunting task, but the Mets are more than capable of winning this game and going home to Citi Field for the NLCS. 

First, the Mets had Greinke beat at Dodger Stadium. We don’t need to go back there, but the Mets had a 2-1 lead in the seventh inning before all mayhem broke lose followed by some curious managerial decisions by Terry Collins. If none of this happened, it would’ve been the second time the Mets beat him. 

Second, the Mets have Jacob deGrom. He’s coming off a deGrominant Game 1 performance. The Dodgers hitters couldn’t touch him. They couldn’t hit him before the playoffs. There’s no reason to believe they’ll hit him now. 

Third, for some reason, home teams are ponderously bad in Game 5’s at home:

I’m not sure why this is the case, but I’ll take it. Sure, you could argue that the Dodgers won’t be susceptible to the same fate because they have Greinke, but history shows that may not be the case:

Anyone can lose a Game 5. Funny things can happen in a do or due game. The Mets have the better overall team. They have more weapons on offense. They just need deGrom to be deGrom. 

There’s legitimate hope the Mets can win Game 5. I think they’re going to do it. 

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Kershaw Still Scares Me

There were three things we knew coming into the NLDS: (1) Clayton Kershaw has had trouble in the postseason; (2) pitchers do not pitch well on three days rest; and (3) Kershaw is awesome. 

In Game One, he was incredible. He struck out 11 Mets. When he left the game, he had only allowed one earned run (the other two were runners he left on base).  Kershaw showed the Mets why he’s the best pitcher in the game. Fortunately, the Mets had Jacob deGrom matched Kershaw pitch for pitch. He outlasted Kershaw. However, unlike deGrom, Kershaw is returning in three days rest. 

This will be the third time Kershaw has pitched on three days rest. In those prior starts he’s gone 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings. In those two starts he’s struck out 15 and walked three. He limited opponents to a .159 batting average. 

The Mets plan should be to do the same thing they did on Game One. Work the count and jump on the fastballs. If Kershaw is on, you need to help get him out of the game. He threw 113 pitches. He shouldn’t be good for more than 100 pitches. As his last two starts indicate, he’s not going past six innings. 

The Mets just need to keep it close until they can get into the Dodgers bullpen. The Mets did it for seven earned runs yesterday. If they do that, the Mets will be on their way to the NLCS. 

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Happy Harvey Playoff Day

Between this past season, the missed workout, to the recent Boras interview, Mets fans were going to make Matt Harvey‘ first playoff start a referendum on him as a person and as a player. Then Ruben Tejada broke his leg due to a dirty Chase Utley “slide.”  

  
I know everyone wants to make it bigger than what it is, but one simple truth remains. Harvey’s only job is to put the Mets in a position to win. Jacob deGrom did. Noah Syndergaard did as well (even if the Mets lost). The reason we’re expecting more than that?  Well, it’s because it’s Harvey. 

Even after deGrom’s great year and his record setting Game One performance, Tery Collins came out and said:

He’s the ace on a staff of young aces. He’s the Dark Knight. He’s the guy who came back this year and gave Mets fans hope that all if this was possible.  Harvey helped turn this hope into reality.  Coming off of Tommy John surgery, he’s had a great year with terrific moments. 

He went into Yankee Stadium, and he went 8.1 innings allowing two runs and striking out seven. He’s shut down the highest scoring team in the majors. He was the winning pitcher when the Mets clinched the NL East. Famously, he stayed in that game later than originally intended to get ready for the playoffs. 

The playoffs are here. If you’re being honest, there is no one you want on the mound with the series tied 1-1 than a motivated Harvey. He’s motivated to show he’s better than deGrom. He’s motivated to avenge Tejada. He’s motivated to win the game. 

This is the biggest game of the year.  The Mets have never lost a home NLDS game. With Harvey in the mound, that’s not going to change. I’m expecting today to be a Happy Harvey Day. 

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That’s Messed Up Jake

For the past few years, I’ve lived and died with the New York Rangers deep postseason runs in an attempt to win a Stanley Cup. Whether the Rangers won or lost, I was too wired to go right to bed, so I would go to MSG to consume as much post-game coverage as I could. 

In those shows, you see the players get interviewed in the locker room. You get a sense of where the team is mentally. These past few years, I could see the Rangers had a steely resolve. They had the best goaltender in the sport, and they believed they could win no matter what happens. 

Early this morning, after an exhilarating 3-1 win, I turned on the SNY post game show. Originally, David Wright and Daniel Murphy were on the dais. They talked about their big hits, but they were more interested in singing the praises of Jacob deGrom, who would shortly join them on the dais. Here’s what happened next:

https://twitter.com/itsstephanieg/status/652719302492200960

That’s right. After the biggest game of deGrom’s career, his first inclination is to prank Murphy eliciting a “Yowsa!” from Murphy. I don’t know if it was the prank or the “Yowsa!” but deGrom and Wright were chuckling to themselves. While this was going on, Murphy let him know “that’s messed up Jake.”

This moment tells me that this team is loose. It tells me that the moment isn’t too big for these guys. It lets me know that when times get tough this postseason, and we know that it will, this team can handle it because they have good team chemistry. It gives me confidence that the Mets can make a real run here. 

I hope the Mets can laugh all the way to the World Series. 

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deGrominant Start to the NLDS

Mets fans have been waiting nine years for this game. They were treated to a special, record setting game:

Everyone expected a pitcher’s duel, and both teams delivered. Clayton Kershaw pitched 6.2 innings allowing four hits, three earned (two were inherited runners scored), four walks, and 11 strikeouts. Jacob deGrom was better. He threw 121 pitches over seven innings. He allowed five hits, one intentional walk, and 13 strikeouts. He was Tom Seaver-esque:

This was the type of game if you have no rooting interest, you enjoy every minute of it. When you’re a Mets fan, you live and die with every pitch. It’s tense. It’s trying. It’s worth it.  I actually checked with my Dad to see if his defribulator was working. I took it that since he replied it was. 

Personally, I don’t think I was breathing until the seventh inning. deGrom and Kershaw, though dominant, were seemingly in trouble every inning. Michael Cuddyer, and his extra shoddy defense, made sure of that. 

Up until the seventh inning, the only run was from a fourth inning Daniel Murphy home run. It was a special moment. Murphy was first around for the second collapse in 2008. He’s the second longest tenured position player. He fought to be an everyday player. With one swing of the bat, he showed everyone he deserved this chance. 

Ironically, on a night the Mets sat Michael Conforto because of Kershaw, only the Mets lefties got hits off of Kershaw. However, the Mets batters did their job in the seventh. Lucas Duda walked. Ruben Tejada fought back from an 0-2 count to walk. After a deGrom sacrifice, Curtis Granderson battled to walk. The bases were loaded with two outs, and Mattingly panicked. 

He lifted Kershaw and brought in Pedro Baez. He looked nervous. He got David Wright to a full count, and Wright delivered with a two RBI single. I screamed and woke up the house. It was worth it. My celebration was something like this:

I breathed a little easier when Juan Lagares came in for Cuddyer shifting Yoenis Cespedes to left. Of course, Tyler Clippard allowed a run in the eighth giving me angina again. Terry Collins didn’t let it get out of control. He brought in Jeurys Familia, who got ended the rally, and earned the four out save preserving the Mets 3-1 victory. 

Overall, this night wasn’t about Murphy, or Wright, or the fans who waited nine years for this moment. This was about deGrom. He has answered every call in his career.  He was Rookie of the Year. He was an All Star. He earned this start, and he more than delivered. He was better than the Franchise. 

The Mets are up 1-0 in the series. Later tonight, we’re expecting another pitcher’s duel, and the Mets are sending out the hottest pitcher in baseball. I like the Mets chances. Lets Go Mets!

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NLDS Prediction 

This past week I’ve mainly focused on the big pitchers because that’s where I think the series will be won and lost. 

While you can argue the best two pitchers in this series are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the Mets have historically performed slightly better than the rest of baseball against these two. I’m not sure that matters all that much because Kershaw and Greinke have pitched very well against the Mets. 

On the flip side, Noah Syndergaard is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now. He’s been close to unhittable for a month now. Additionally, Jacob deGrom has had a terrific year, and he pitched well while amped up. Finally, the Mets have a big advantage in the Game 3 matchup between Matt Harvey and Brett Anderson. Overall, as you can see the Dodgers and Mets pitching is a wash:

The biggest advantage for the Mets is their bullpen. So far this year, the Mets bullpen has been better. Additionally, it is comprised of relievers who can go multiple innings, if necessary, to put the game away. Therefore, the Mets don’t need to out duel Greinke and Kershaw. Rather, they just need to do their thing out there and let it become a bullpen game. 

No, I’m not counting on Kershaw performing as poorly as he had in past postseasons. I’m not expecting the Mets to completely neutralize Adrian Gonzalez. However, I am not discounting the Mets 4-3 record against the Dodgers.

I remember that the Mets won those games before David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud were healthy. I remember these games were before the Mets traded for Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson. I remember the Mets bullpen is even better with the additions of Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard. I remember the Mets have never lost a five game series or an NLDS game at home. 

During the regular season, the Mets showed they could pitch with the Dodgers. They showed they had enough offense to beat the Dodgers. Then, they got better pitching and significantly better hitting. 

I see the Mets earning a split in LA. I see Harvey winning Game 3. I see the Mets outlasting Kershaw who will be pitching on three days rest. I see the Mets bats taking advantage of the Dodgers bullpen. 

Mets in four. 

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Game 4 is TBA vs. TBA

Neither the Dodgers nor the Mets have officially announced a Game 4 starter. For the Mets part, it seems like they are waiting on Steven Matz. I’m not sure what the Dodgers reasons are for waiting. 

Overall, both teams are but on their starting pitching. For the Dodgers, it’s Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. For the Mets, it’s their stud muffins. With the way the NLDS schedule is set up, the Game 1 starter can pitch Game 4 on three days rest, and the Game 2 starter can pitch Game 5 on normal rest. 

With that schedule, I have to believe the Dodgers will start Kershaw on three days rest in Game Four whether the Dodgers are up 2-1 or down 1-2. On the Mets side, I think Jacob deGrom is the only pitcher they would consider pitching on three day’s rest, and I’m still not sure they will do it. I think Terry Collins and deGrom are lobbying behind the scenes to make it happen. 

However, Matz pitched well in a simulated game today. If his back responds well, we will be on the postseason roster. If that is the case, I believe the Mets will start him in Game 4, no matter what. Only time will tell if this is the right decision. 

Overall, the TBA I’m mostly interested in is who will win this series. The Game 4 starter will probably have a lot to say about that. 

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Matz or Gilmartin

The Mets seem close to setting the NLDS roster (my projections were on point), but there is still one major decision left. The Mets need to decide if they want to put Steven Matz or Sean Gilmartin on the roster. It’s a major decision. 

In essence, the Mets are deciding between the pitcher they want to start Game Four and the last man in the bullpen. In reality, they hope that Matz doesn’t have to pitch (sweep), but they really don’t want Gilmartin pitching (starter knocked out early). Gilmartin flew to LA, and Matz flew to Florida. If Matz has a successful bullpen, he will be added to the roster. If not, it’s Gilmartin’s job. 

Personally, I would go with Gilmartin regardless. Matz has proven to be injury prone, and his back injury had lingered. If he sleeps on it wrong again, he’s out until the World Series. There are other more practical reasons why I would prefer Gilmartin.

First, if the Mets are down 2-1 in the series, I want to see Jacob deGrom on short rest, as was previously suggested by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, over the Mets other options whether that pitcher be Matz or Bartolo Colon. If I’m going down, I’m going down with my best. This year it was deGrom. Noah Syndergaard can then start Game Five on normal rest. 
Second, the Mets are carrying Colon and Jon Niese on the roster. That’s two starters in the bullpen. If your best shot of winning this series is going with the stud muffins, then Matz serves no purpose on the team. He’s had zero bullpen experience. With that said, if the Mets feel an extra reliever is needed, they should carry the guy who is actually a reliever. Gilmartin has been used in a myriad of ways. He’s the more valuable bullpen piece, even with the reverse splits. 

Finally, Matz hasn’t pitched since September 24th, which will be 19 days between appearances. He’s going to be rusty. You don’t want a rusty pitcher pitching in a do-or-die game. Matz may be the Mets 4th best starter when healthy, but he hasn’t been. I think he can shake off the rust, but it’s only a guess. If you’re guessing at this time of the year, you’re tealky just gambling. You don’t gamble with Game Four. 

I’d send Matz to Florida to join the taxi squad. If the Mets advance, you’ll have a much better idea if he’s capable of starting a game. If he is, put him on the NLCS roster. If he’s not, you can stick with Gilmartin, who is accustomed to sitting for stretches at a time. 

I realize the Mets will go with Matz if they can. I just don’t think it’s the right time. I think his time is the NLCS. It’s Gilmartin’s time now. 

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