Jacob deGrom

Happy Harvey Playoff Day

Between this past season, the missed workout, to the recent Boras interview, Mets fans were going to make Matt Harvey‘ first playoff start a referendum on him as a person and as a player. Then Ruben Tejada broke his leg due to a dirty Chase Utley “slide.”  

  
I know everyone wants to make it bigger than what it is, but one simple truth remains. Harvey’s only job is to put the Mets in a position to win. Jacob deGrom did. Noah Syndergaard did as well (even if the Mets lost). The reason we’re expecting more than that?  Well, it’s because it’s Harvey. 

Even after deGrom’s great year and his record setting Game One performance, Tery Collins came out and said:

He’s the ace on a staff of young aces. He’s the Dark Knight. He’s the guy who came back this year and gave Mets fans hope that all if this was possible.  Harvey helped turn this hope into reality.  Coming off of Tommy John surgery, he’s had a great year with terrific moments. 

He went into Yankee Stadium, and he went 8.1 innings allowing two runs and striking out seven. He’s shut down the highest scoring team in the majors. He was the winning pitcher when the Mets clinched the NL East. Famously, he stayed in that game later than originally intended to get ready for the playoffs. 

The playoffs are here. If you’re being honest, there is no one you want on the mound with the series tied 1-1 than a motivated Harvey. He’s motivated to show he’s better than deGrom. He’s motivated to avenge Tejada. He’s motivated to win the game. 

This is the biggest game of the year.  The Mets have never lost a home NLDS game. With Harvey in the mound, that’s not going to change. I’m expecting today to be a Happy Harvey Day. 

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That’s Messed Up Jake

For the past few years, I’ve lived and died with the New York Rangers deep postseason runs in an attempt to win a Stanley Cup. Whether the Rangers won or lost, I was too wired to go right to bed, so I would go to MSG to consume as much post-game coverage as I could. 

In those shows, you see the players get interviewed in the locker room. You get a sense of where the team is mentally. These past few years, I could see the Rangers had a steely resolve. They had the best goaltender in the sport, and they believed they could win no matter what happens. 

Early this morning, after an exhilarating 3-1 win, I turned on the SNY post game show. Originally, David Wright and Daniel Murphy were on the dais. They talked about their big hits, but they were more interested in singing the praises of Jacob deGrom, who would shortly join them on the dais. Here’s what happened next:

https://twitter.com/itsstephanieg/status/652719302492200960

That’s right. After the biggest game of deGrom’s career, his first inclination is to prank Murphy eliciting a “Yowsa!” from Murphy. I don’t know if it was the prank or the “Yowsa!” but deGrom and Wright were chuckling to themselves. While this was going on, Murphy let him know “that’s messed up Jake.”

This moment tells me that this team is loose. It tells me that the moment isn’t too big for these guys. It lets me know that when times get tough this postseason, and we know that it will, this team can handle it because they have good team chemistry. It gives me confidence that the Mets can make a real run here. 

I hope the Mets can laugh all the way to the World Series. 

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deGrominant Start to the NLDS

Mets fans have been waiting nine years for this game. They were treated to a special, record setting game:

Everyone expected a pitcher’s duel, and both teams delivered. Clayton Kershaw pitched 6.2 innings allowing four hits, three earned (two were inherited runners scored), four walks, and 11 strikeouts. Jacob deGrom was better. He threw 121 pitches over seven innings. He allowed five hits, one intentional walk, and 13 strikeouts. He was Tom Seaver-esque:

This was the type of game if you have no rooting interest, you enjoy every minute of it. When you’re a Mets fan, you live and die with every pitch. It’s tense. It’s trying. It’s worth it.  I actually checked with my Dad to see if his defribulator was working. I took it that since he replied it was. 

Personally, I don’t think I was breathing until the seventh inning. deGrom and Kershaw, though dominant, were seemingly in trouble every inning. Michael Cuddyer, and his extra shoddy defense, made sure of that. 

Up until the seventh inning, the only run was from a fourth inning Daniel Murphy home run. It was a special moment. Murphy was first around for the second collapse in 2008. He’s the second longest tenured position player. He fought to be an everyday player. With one swing of the bat, he showed everyone he deserved this chance. 

Ironically, on a night the Mets sat Michael Conforto because of Kershaw, only the Mets lefties got hits off of Kershaw. However, the Mets batters did their job in the seventh. Lucas Duda walked. Ruben Tejada fought back from an 0-2 count to walk. After a deGrom sacrifice, Curtis Granderson battled to walk. The bases were loaded with two outs, and Mattingly panicked. 

He lifted Kershaw and brought in Pedro Baez. He looked nervous. He got David Wright to a full count, and Wright delivered with a two RBI single. I screamed and woke up the house. It was worth it. My celebration was something like this:

I breathed a little easier when Juan Lagares came in for Cuddyer shifting Yoenis Cespedes to left. Of course, Tyler Clippard allowed a run in the eighth giving me angina again. Terry Collins didn’t let it get out of control. He brought in Jeurys Familia, who got ended the rally, and earned the four out save preserving the Mets 3-1 victory. 

Overall, this night wasn’t about Murphy, or Wright, or the fans who waited nine years for this moment. This was about deGrom. He has answered every call in his career.  He was Rookie of the Year. He was an All Star. He earned this start, and he more than delivered. He was better than the Franchise. 

The Mets are up 1-0 in the series. Later tonight, we’re expecting another pitcher’s duel, and the Mets are sending out the hottest pitcher in baseball. I like the Mets chances. Lets Go Mets!

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NLDS Prediction 

This past week I’ve mainly focused on the big pitchers because that’s where I think the series will be won and lost. 

While you can argue the best two pitchers in this series are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the Mets have historically performed slightly better than the rest of baseball against these two. I’m not sure that matters all that much because Kershaw and Greinke have pitched very well against the Mets. 

On the flip side, Noah Syndergaard is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now. He’s been close to unhittable for a month now. Additionally, Jacob deGrom has had a terrific year, and he pitched well while amped up. Finally, the Mets have a big advantage in the Game 3 matchup between Matt Harvey and Brett Anderson. Overall, as you can see the Dodgers and Mets pitching is a wash:

The biggest advantage for the Mets is their bullpen. So far this year, the Mets bullpen has been better. Additionally, it is comprised of relievers who can go multiple innings, if necessary, to put the game away. Therefore, the Mets don’t need to out duel Greinke and Kershaw. Rather, they just need to do their thing out there and let it become a bullpen game. 

No, I’m not counting on Kershaw performing as poorly as he had in past postseasons. I’m not expecting the Mets to completely neutralize Adrian Gonzalez. However, I am not discounting the Mets 4-3 record against the Dodgers.

I remember that the Mets won those games before David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud were healthy. I remember these games were before the Mets traded for Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson. I remember the Mets bullpen is even better with the additions of Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard. I remember the Mets have never lost a five game series or an NLDS game at home. 

During the regular season, the Mets showed they could pitch with the Dodgers. They showed they had enough offense to beat the Dodgers. Then, they got better pitching and significantly better hitting. 

I see the Mets earning a split in LA. I see Harvey winning Game 3. I see the Mets outlasting Kershaw who will be pitching on three days rest. I see the Mets bats taking advantage of the Dodgers bullpen. 

Mets in four. 

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Game 4 is TBA vs. TBA

Neither the Dodgers nor the Mets have officially announced a Game 4 starter. For the Mets part, it seems like they are waiting on Steven Matz. I’m not sure what the Dodgers reasons are for waiting. 

Overall, both teams are but on their starting pitching. For the Dodgers, it’s Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. For the Mets, it’s their stud muffins. With the way the NLDS schedule is set up, the Game 1 starter can pitch Game 4 on three days rest, and the Game 2 starter can pitch Game 5 on normal rest. 

With that schedule, I have to believe the Dodgers will start Kershaw on three days rest in Game Four whether the Dodgers are up 2-1 or down 1-2. On the Mets side, I think Jacob deGrom is the only pitcher they would consider pitching on three day’s rest, and I’m still not sure they will do it. I think Terry Collins and deGrom are lobbying behind the scenes to make it happen. 

However, Matz pitched well in a simulated game today. If his back responds well, we will be on the postseason roster. If that is the case, I believe the Mets will start him in Game 4, no matter what. Only time will tell if this is the right decision. 

Overall, the TBA I’m mostly interested in is who will win this series. The Game 4 starter will probably have a lot to say about that. 

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Matz or Gilmartin

The Mets seem close to setting the NLDS roster (my projections were on point), but there is still one major decision left. The Mets need to decide if they want to put Steven Matz or Sean Gilmartin on the roster. It’s a major decision. 

In essence, the Mets are deciding between the pitcher they want to start Game Four and the last man in the bullpen. In reality, they hope that Matz doesn’t have to pitch (sweep), but they really don’t want Gilmartin pitching (starter knocked out early). Gilmartin flew to LA, and Matz flew to Florida. If Matz has a successful bullpen, he will be added to the roster. If not, it’s Gilmartin’s job. 

Personally, I would go with Gilmartin regardless. Matz has proven to be injury prone, and his back injury had lingered. If he sleeps on it wrong again, he’s out until the World Series. There are other more practical reasons why I would prefer Gilmartin.

First, if the Mets are down 2-1 in the series, I want to see Jacob deGrom on short rest, as was previously suggested by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, over the Mets other options whether that pitcher be Matz or Bartolo Colon. If I’m going down, I’m going down with my best. This year it was deGrom. Noah Syndergaard can then start Game Five on normal rest. 
Second, the Mets are carrying Colon and Jon Niese on the roster. That’s two starters in the bullpen. If your best shot of winning this series is going with the stud muffins, then Matz serves no purpose on the team. He’s had zero bullpen experience. With that said, if the Mets feel an extra reliever is needed, they should carry the guy who is actually a reliever. Gilmartin has been used in a myriad of ways. He’s the more valuable bullpen piece, even with the reverse splits. 

Finally, Matz hasn’t pitched since September 24th, which will be 19 days between appearances. He’s going to be rusty. You don’t want a rusty pitcher pitching in a do-or-die game. Matz may be the Mets 4th best starter when healthy, but he hasn’t been. I think he can shake off the rust, but it’s only a guess. If you’re guessing at this time of the year, you’re tealky just gambling. You don’t gamble with Game Four. 

I’d send Matz to Florida to join the taxi squad. If the Mets advance, you’ll have a much better idea if he’s capable of starting a game. If he is, put him on the NLCS roster. If he’s not, you can stick with Gilmartin, who is accustomed to sitting for stretches at a time. 

I realize the Mets will go with Matz if they can. I just don’t think it’s the right time. I think his time is the NLCS. It’s Gilmartin’s time now. 

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Bullpen Advantage

Everyone is expecting great starting pitching in the NLDS. As seen earlier today, Jacob deGrom is as good against the Dodgers as Clayton Kershaw has been against the Mets. Potentially, this means the starting pitching will cancel each other out creating a battle of the bullpens. 

Working backwards (using ESPN’s depth chart) the Mets and Dodgers each have terrific closers: 

Jeurys Familia 2-2, 43 saves, 1.85 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 (.207/.261/.309)

Kenley Jansen 2-1, 36 saves, 2.41 ERA, 0.783 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 (.176/.215/.298)

However, after that, the Mets have the better set-up men (note these numbers are the numbers with the team only):

Addison Reed 1-1, 1 save, 1.17 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 (.200/.267/.273)

Tyler Clippard 4-1, 2 saves, 3.06 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 (.200/.287/.336)

Jim Johnson 0-3, 1 save, 10.13 ERA, 2.036 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 (.381/.422/.524)

Carlos Frias 5-5, 4.06 ERA, 1.468 WHIP, 5.0 K/9 (.297/.356/.405)

This is a major advantage. If the Mets can stop the game from getting from the starter to Jansen, they can put runs on the board. However, according to Baseball Reference, the Dodgers have reshuffled their bullpen:

Juan Nicasio 1-3, 1 save, 3.86 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 (.263/.358/.384)

Yimi Garcia 3-5, 1 save, 3.34 ERA, 0.953 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 (.209/.249/.346)

Pedro Baez 4-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 (.247/.288/.405)

These are much better, but hittable right handed pitchers. The Dodgers only have one left handed reliever right now, J.P. Howell, which means Terry Collins will get to pick and choose his spots with Michael Conforto, Kelly Johnson, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. The Mets have a major matchup advantages in the late innings. 

The bullpen disparity and Mets roster construction is the biggest reason I believe the Mets can and will win this series. 

Update: Johnson is not on the roster. 

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Dodgers Against deGrom

Earlier today, I covered how the Mets have fared against Clayton Kershaw. In Game One, Kershaw is going up against Jacob deGrom, and we’re expecting a pitcher’s duel. 

From the earliest post, we learned that while Kershaw has dominated the Mets, like he does every other team, the Mets have fared better against him than the average team. Here’s how the Dodgers have fared against deGrom:

Starting Lineup

Carl Crawford 0-3 with 2 BBs and 1 K
Howie Kendrick 0-3 with 1 K

Adrian Gonzalez 3-8 with 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, 1 BB, and 3 Ks
Yasiel Puig 1-6 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, and 3 Ks
Andre Ethier 2-6 with 1 triple and 1 K
Corey Seager 0-0
Justin Turner 0-5 with 1 K

Yasmani Grandal 0-3 with 1 K
Combined 6-38 (.158 BA) with 2 BBs (.200 OBP) with one triple, three HRs (.447 slugging), 6 RBIs, and 12 Ks

Bench

A.J. Ellis 0-2 with 2 BBs
Jimmy Rollins 1-8 with 1 BB and 2 Ks
Chase Utley 3-10 with 2 BBs and 1 K
Enrique Hernandez 0-0
Joc Pederson 0-3

Ronald Torreyes 0-0
Combined 4-23 (.174 BA) with 5 BBs (.321 OBP), no extra base hits (.174 slugging), and 3 Ks

Team Totals 10-61 (.164 BA) with 7 BBs (.250 OBP), 1 triple, 3 HRs (.344 slugging), 6 RBIs, and 15 Ks

So overall, the Dodgers have not hit deGrom well with the exception of Gonzalez, Ethier, and Utley. It also seems that when the Dodgers get to deGrom, they hit him hard. As long as deGrom can keep the ball in the ballpark, the Dodgers are going to really struggle to score runs. 

deGrom was amazing this season. He was the Mets ace. He’s shown he’s unhurt able when he’s amped up. He’s limited hitters to .215/.255/.318. He’s primed and ready to hold up his end of the bargain in an anticipated Game One pitcher’s duel. 

Against Kershaw, you normally do not have much hope. The Mets will because their pitcher is just as deGrominant. 

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Mets Pitchers Against Dodgers Hitters

Earlier posts addressed the Mets postseason pitching experience as well as the Dodgers postseason offense. While it is interesting to see how theses players fared in October’s past, I’m more interested in seeing how the Mets pitchers have performed against the Dodgers (* – not on team, ** – not on projected roster):

July 3, 2015 Dodger Stadium

Noah Syndergaard ND, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Hansel Robles W, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Jeurys Familia S, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K

July 4, 2015 Dodger Stadium

Matt Harvey L, 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4

Alex Torres* 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Carlos Torres** 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

June 5, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Steven Matz W, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Logan Verrett** S, 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
July 23, 2015 Citi Field
Bartolo Colon L, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Sean Gilmartin, 0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Carlos Torres** 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

July 24, 2015 Citi Field
Jon Niese L, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Carlos Torres** 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Hansel Robles 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Alex Torres* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

July 25, 2015 Citi Field
Matt Harvey W, 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Jenrry Mejia* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jeurys Familia 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

July 26, 2015 Citi Field 
Jacob deGrom ND, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Jeurys Familia, BS, 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Jenrry Mejia, W, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Cumulative

Here are the cumulative stats for the pitchers who are projected to make the playoff roster:

Noah Syndergaard, 0-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Matt Harvey 1-1, 12.0 IP, 13 H, 5 ER, 6 BB, 8 K

Steven Matz 1-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Bartolo Colon 0-1, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Jon Niese 0-1, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Jacob deGrom 0-0, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Hansel Robles 1-0, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Jeurys Familia S, BS, 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Overall, with the exception of Niese, who will not start in the NLDS, have pitched well against the Dodgers. The Mets pitchers faced most of the Dodgers batters they will face in the playoffs. These stats give me confidence the Mets can win this series. 

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Re-Revised NLDS Roster

Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr.  I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad. 

With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection. 

Catchers

1. Travis d’Arnaud

2. Kevin Plawecki

Infielders

3. Lucas Duda

4. Daniel Murphy

5. David Wright

6. Ruben Tejada

7. Wilmer Flores

8. Kelly Johnson

Outfielders

9. Michael Conforto

10. Yoenis Cespedes

11. Curtis Granderson

12. Michael Cuddyer

13. Juan Lagares

14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis 

Starting Pitchers

15. Jacob deGrom

16. Noah Sundergaard

17. Matt Harvey

18. Bartolo Colon

Bullpen

19. Jeurys Familia

20. Addison Reed

21. Tyler Clippard

22. Hansel Robles

23. Jon Niese

24. Erik Goeddel

25. Sean Gilmartin

If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster. 

I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster. 

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