The New York Mets did everything they could do to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Everything.
Steve Cohen flew his private jet to meet him in Japan. He hosted him in his home. He also offered him the largest ever contract for a starting pitcher.
12 years. $325 million. Opt out after five years.
Short of hypnosis, the Mets did all they could. They went above where even the New York Yankees were willing to go. They just couldn’t overcome Yamamoto wanting to join Shohei Ohtani.
The Los Angeles Dodgers matched the Mets offer, and now, Yamamoto chose the Dodgers. If the Dodgers didn’t match, or the Mets were given a chance to match, who knows how this ends?
While we can guess, in the end, Yamamoto is a Dodger. Worse yet, the Mets offseason was structured as Yamamoto or bust. The Mets busted.
The question is where do the Mets go from here. There’s mid rotation options like Jordan Montgomery. Blake Snell is also available, but he isn’t an innings eater.
If the Mets want everyone to forget about the failed Yamamoto pursuit, they could give Pete Alonso an extension. Other than that, the fans will be up in arms over this failed pursuit.
They can also do what they were going to do all along. Cohen waited years for David Stearns, and it’s now time to see what he can do.
Whatever he does, he will be doing it without Yamamoto. Maybe that’s a good thing considering that cost and complete and utter lack of MLB experience.
Yes, that’s sour grapes.
That doesn’t mean the Mets can’t contend. There are still players here. An 84 sim Arizona Diamondbacks team went to the World Series. Just get in, and anything is possible.
That all said, the Mets did all they could. Doesn’t matter. Yamamoto is a Dodger.
In the end, the New York Mets never walked away from Pete Alonso. They offered him one of two deals allowing Alonso to pick one.
Rather than take the three year $71 million deal, Alonso chose the two year $54 million deal with an opt out after the first year.
Looking at it, it’s effectively a one year deal unless Alonso completely craters. Alonso gets $30 million the first year, and he can repeat this process again.
We know Alonso already bet on himself once and lost badly. That seven year $158 deal is gone forever. Maybe if he’s great this year, he could beat it.
Here’s the thing, the 2025 season will likely be it for the Mets and Alonso.
We already know the Mets were actively pursuing Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. on the trade market. They’ve always been pursuing him.
They almost signed him in international free agency long ago, and instead settled for his cousin Gregory Guerrero. During the last IFA, they signed his half-brother.
The worst kept secret in baseball is the Mets will be all out for Guerrero like they were for Juan Soto this offseason. It’s the right decision for the Mets as Guerrero is younger and better than Alonso.
With Guerrero not available for now, the Mets opted for Alonso. It was either him or move Mark Vientos to first so they could pursue Alex Bregman. That plan never materialized, and in reality, was not seriously pursued.
The Mets are giving Alonso the chance to surpass Darryl Strawberry for the team’s all-time HR record. With Alonso behind by 26, he should move to the franchise lead.
Mostly, the Mets are giving Alonso the chance to win the World Series. This should be the best Mets team of his career. If he repeats his postseason heroics, the Mets just might win in 2025.
The Mets are also allowing Alonso to rebuild his value with a safety net. They’re giving him a large pay raise in 2025 to allow him to save some face.
Mostly, the Mets sent a message about the type of organization this is. They could’ve easily walked away and left Alonso in a lurch. Instead, they showed their loyalty and willingness to take care of their own. That probably goes a long way in the future as they pursue other free agents.
Ultimately, the 2025 season should be the last one for Alonso and the Mets. Hopefully, Alonso has a better contract year this time. More than that, let’s hope he leaves with a World Series.
Multiple things can be true at once. In no way should anyone expect Jose Iglesias to repeat his 2024 season or come even close.
That said, the Mets should bring him back for the 2025 season.
Iglesias was a shocking revelation in 2024. In 85 games, he hit .337/.381/.448. That was good for a career best 137 wRC+.
Most of his damage came against left-handed pitching. Over 101 plate appearances, he had an astounding 184 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
It’s a small sample size for sure, but Iglesias has always fared well against left-handed pitching with a 110 wRC+ over his career.
It’s an important consideration with Jeff McNeil struggling against left-handed pitching in his career. McNeil had a 78 wRC+ against lefties last year and a 104 over the past three years.
Iglesias has been better against left-handed pitching than McNeil. Having both allows Carlos Mendoza to have a platoon and/or late game flexibility. He can find the matchups he wants by having both players.
There’s also the Pete Alonso factor. Right now, Alonso is unsigned, and the way it looks now, he will not be a Met in 2025. As part of the planning for that potentially happening, Mark Vientos will likely move to first.
If the Mets cannot make another move, it would mean yet another chance for Brett Baty. If he fails, maybe Ronny Mauricio, who is returning from a torn ACL. Maybe not.
Whatever the case, Iglesias is a nice insurance policy. He can be a right-handed bat who shields the young players from the tough lefties. He could also take over at third if needed.
Iglesias has always been a very good fielder. He can absolutely handle third as a stop gap until the Mets add someone at the trade deadline. If Iglesias hits somewhere close to a 100 wRC+, he could hold the position all year.
There’s also his presence in the clubhouse. He was a very well liked player by teammates and fans alike. The OMG song and sign was a massive part of the 2024 success story.
It wouldn’t feel right seeing him taking that to another team. It’s forever part of Mets lore, and the good vibes there should carry forward for at least another season.
If Alonso returns or leaves, theres a role here for Iglesias. The Mets would benefit from his presence and more OMG. Iglesias was a significant part of the success story of the 2024 season and can be that again in 2025.
This just may be me, but for the life of me, I’ve never understood the obsession with the 1987 New York Mets road jerseys. It lasted one year, and it probably should’ve remained that way.
First of all, that 1987 season was as disappointing as any in Mets history. It started with the Dwight Gooden steroid suspension and didn’t get much better from there.
The defending World Series champions that we were hoping were on the precipice of a dynasty fell apart. Basically every starter was injured at some point, and every returning starter not named Darryl Strawberry had a down year.
It’s a matter of personal taste, but they also aren’t as aesthetically pleasing as the traditional Tiffany font road jerseys. Yet, there are some ardent fans of that jersey, and now, we see some form of a return to those jerseys.
Honestly, these are better with the blue than the gray. Still, it’s a little too monotone. Maybe if the New York was all orange, they’d be better, but maybe not.
The old blue alternates had the gray lettering with the orange outline, and those were very well received. Maybe that would’ve been better.
Then again, I’m a dad. I’m not who the Mets are targeting with these even if it’s a callback to my youth when I watched the Mets.
To that point, my kids LOVE them. They think they’re awesome. I’ve already received requests for a Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor one.
Who am I kidding? They want both just like they wanted one of every Met for the city connect jerseys. To that end, the jerseys are a MASSIVE success.
The Mets want to create jerseys people want to go out and buy. If my kids love them, then I’m probably going to buy them one eventually.
So, while I’m not a big fan, it doesn’t matter. I’m buying two. Maybe three when the kids want me to have one to match them.
With the New York Mets pursuing Roki Sasaki, the team was indicating they’re looking towards a six man rotation. They’re also looking for starting pitching depth.
While there are internal options like Griffin Canning and Paul Blackburn, the Mets could turn to the free agent market. One name that stands out there is former Met Max Scherzer.
Scherzer, 40, is not the prime target he was when the Mets signed him back in 2021. Rather, he’s a future Hall of Famer looking for one last chance to win, one last chance for glory before he retires.
The Mets could present that. However, the question is what could Scherzer present to the Mets at this stage of his career.
For starters, Scherzer provides a veteran presence and competitive edge. As detailed by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Scherzer served as a mentor to the younger Mets pitchers, and the Mets thrived in 2022 as a result.
In many ways, Scherzer acted as an extension of Jeremy Hefner. There’s real value there as the Mets look to make Frankie Montas this year’s version of Luis Severino. They’re also trying to reclimate Canning, and hopefully, we will soon see Brandon Sproat.
This is all well and good, but this is also why the Mets have Hefner. It’s also why Steve Cohen has invested so much money in analytics. It doesn’t matter at all if Scherzer is done.
Fortunately, it appears Scherzer has something left in the tank. In an injury riddled season, he had a 101 ERA+, 4.18 FIP, and an 8.3 K/9. There are numbers there to justify him as a fifth starter.
Looking at his Baseball Savant page, Scherzer can still miss bats. It’s not at the same rate as his prime or even two years ago. Fortunately, even when opposing batters make contact, he’s limiting the damage.
Yes, he’s injury prone now. It may sound odd to say, but that does somewhat help the Mets. It would give a chance for a Canning or Sproat to prove themselves.
In essence, Scherzer buys the Mets time. It’s time for the younger starters. It’s time for Montas to figure it out. It’s time between starts for Kodai Senga.
Scherzer pitched well for the Mets when his body let him. He was the co-ace they needed. Now, they need a placeholder and veteran staff leader. Once again, he’s a perfect fit.
Go back to October 3, 2024. It’s a deciding Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series. No one knew what was going to happen, but New York Mets fans were convinced Pete Alonso would not be a factor in the game.
Check that. Mets fans wouldn’t have been surprised by a big error or strikeout. We just didn’t think it’d be a big hit. Fortunately, Alonso proved us wrong.
Up until that point, Mets fans were very okay with Alonso walking in free agency, and they were increasingly vocal about it. It’s not thar anyone truly wanted Alonso gone. It’s just that it seemed to be the right time.
As luck would have it, Alonso would have a good postseason. He’d hit three more homers and was one of the driving forces of the Mets surprising run.
Behind that run was a lackluster 2024 season. He had a career low in homers, RBI, SLG, OPS+, and WAR for a full 162 game season. He also posted the second most strikeouts in his career.
The barrel rates and exit velocities are trending in the wrong direction. He had a career worst OAA. He’s become a worse base runner.
This wasn’t just the pressures of a contract year or wanting to do better than the Mets extension offer. This is a negative trend with Alonso having turned 30.
The calls to bring Alonso back started with a fervor when Juan Soto was signed. Somehow people believe Alonso, and only Alonso, can protect Soto in the lineup.
Put that nonsense aside. The question is what makes the most sense.
Short term, it’s worth keeping Alonso. Let’s see if the decline is a blip. It’s worth the investment. After all, Alonso plays everyday and works tirelessly to improve as a player.
Long term? That just seems like it’s a risk not worth taking.
Taking the fan perspective, this may be the exact right time for Alonso to leave. No, fans don’t want him to leave. Rather, it’s the right time.
No one. Absolutely no one wants to ever be in a position to boo Alonso or beg the Mets to release him. Alonso has been special to fans, and to be put in that position would be cruel.
That is the exact risk in giving Alonso a big deal. The risk is the decline is real, and the fans will want him gone.
If Alonso leaves today, everyone will have fond memories of Alonso. The recording setting rookie season. The Home Run Derbies. LFGM. The homer off Devin Williams.
It would be a fond farewell instead of a good riddance. To a certain extent, it’s what’s best for both sides. It may just be time for Alonso to leave even if it’s impossible to imagine Alonso in another uniform.
There are examples where narratives take hold, and it seems to be the case with CC Sabathia. As a player, he was viewed upon as a future Hall of Famer, and he went in on the first ballot.
The average Hall of Fame starting pitcher has a 73.0 WAR, 49.9 WAR7, and a 61.5 JAWS. He averaged a 4.5 WAR per 162 games.
Sabathia fell short of all those marks. He was a 62.3 WAR, 39.4 WAR7, and a 50.8 JAWS while averaging a 3.8 WAR per 162 games. Looking at the numbers, Sabathia was a borderline Hall of Famer, not a first ballot guy.
Look at David Cone, a Hall of Fame case previously made on this site. Cone and Sabathia have an identical WAR with Cone having a better WAR7, JAWS, and WAR per 162 games.
Cone also had a superior ERA+ FIP, and K/9. Cone was a far superior postseason pitcher with a perfect game to his name. Despite all this, Cone fell off the ballot after one year.
Think about that. Cone, the superior pitcher, fell off the ballot after one year while Sabathia was a first ballot inductee. This is either narrative taking hold or standards changing.
Cone is far from the only example. Of course, we can point to Curt Schilling, but we know Schilling not being inducted is partially the result of his post playing days behavior.
We can make a case for Jim McCormick, but he played the entirety of his career in the 1800s. Without more research, making his Hall of Fame case is disingenuous.
There’s Luis Tiant, who was also a better pitcher than Sabathia.
Tiant had a superior WAR, WAR7, JAWS, and WAR/162. While he had a lower ERA+, he did have a superior FIP. Now, with a better understanding of the game, he likely would’ve garnered at least one Cy Young and more All-Star appearances.
Tiant was also a signature player with his wild delivery. He’s also one of the first big Cuban stars in a shaky history between American and Cuban baseball. He’d never reach 40% of the vote when he was on the ballot.
Mark Buehrle has a better ERA than Sabathia, and like Cone, has thrown a perfect game. Buehrle was a different style pitcher, a sinker ballet who pitched to contact. He’d back that up winning five Gold Gloves.
As a previous analysis on this site noted Buehrle was a true workhorse who threw 200 innings 14 straight years. All told, he has an interesting Hall of Fame case, but he only received 11.4% of the vote.
Johan Santana had a far superior ERA+ and FIP. He had more Cy Youngs, a pitching triple crown, three ERA titles, and a Gold Glove. Partially the result of an injury shortened career, he fell off the ballot after his first try.
All told, there were better pitchers than Sabathia who never came close to the Hall of Fame. Some didn’t last a year, and really, many were never truly analyzed or considered.
This is not to take anything away from Sabathia. He had a great career, and he deserved induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
To take it a step further, knowing how he battled and overcame alcoholism, his induction was necessary. It’s a true testament to the person and pitcher he is. We need more Sabathias in the Hall of Fame, and in reality, we need more in society.
All that said, from a pure baseball perspective, his induction on the first ballot demands we take a look at pitchers who were dismissed. We should start with Cone and go from there.
When you look back at Billy Wagner’s career, we can now say it was a Hall of Fame career. He’s second all-time in saves among left-handed relievers, and his K/9 was the best all-time.
There are many moments we can pinpoint in his career worth highlighting. Perhaps, his best moment was August 20, 2009.
In September 2008, with the New York Mets in the heat of a battle for the postseason, Wagner needed Tommy John. Typically, that surgery has players sit out at least a year.
For the Mets, the 2009 seaaon was an unmitigated disaster. Citi Field was not well received, and the team on the field made matters worse.
Remember, this was the year of Luis Castillo dropping the pop up. The less said about this, the better.
Point is the Mets were dreadful. They entered August 49-53, 9.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies. By August 20, the Mets were 13.5 games back.
Despite this, Wagner fought to return. In less than a year removed from Tommy John, he pitched a scoreless inning against the Atlanta Braves allowing no hits or walks while striking out two.
From there, Wagner would make one more scoreless appearance for the Mets before being traded to the Boston Red Sox Red Soxin what was really a salary dump trade. (Apologies to Chris Carter). He’d pitch one more year at a high level before retiring.
This moment shows us why Wagner was a Hall of Famer. He did whatever he needed to do to beat the odds. He forced his way on the field and was dominating.
This is what you expect from a naturally right-handed pitcher who learned to throw left-handed after breaking his dominant arm twice. You expect that from a 5’10” pitcher hitting triple digits on the gun.
Wagner will likely go in the Hall of Fame as a Houston Astro, as he should. However, he showed us all his best as a Met. He recorded his only three postseason saves with the team, and he made his superhuman return from Tommy John.
Wagner will always be a Met even if he’s an Astro in Cooperstown. We’ll remember the “Enter the Sandman” intro, that great 2006 team, and his fight. He did all he could to beat great and help the team.
He did that in his four years in New York, and every Mets fan is grateful he was a Met. Hopefully, he will get a day at Citi Field honoring his well deserved accomplishment.
Congratulations Billy Wagner.
Everywhere you listen, they say Pete Alonso is a must sign for the New York Mets. The theory is he’s the big bat who can protect Juan Soto in the lineup.
The protection theory is all well and good, but we need to stop pretending Alonso is anywhere near the level of Aaron Judge. For the rest of his career, Soto will never have the level of protection he had with the New York Yankees.
Taking a step further, Alonso is in no way going to force teams to pitch to Soto. They’re not taking their chances with Soto to avoid Alonso.
Put another way, Soto is not your excuse for Alonso.
That’s not to say Alonso wouldn’t help this team. He’s a 40 HR bat who would slot in well in the lineup. With as studious as he can be, he may well benefit from being able to share notes with Soto.
That said, we can’t pretend Alonso is the only option remaining this offseason. For a point of reference, he’s coming off a 121 wRC+, and he had a 122 wRC+ the previous season.
Internally, Brandon Nimmo has a 119 wRC+. If teams are pitching around Soto to get to Nimmo, they know have a pitcher not throwing strikes facing a hitter with a great eye. Soto followed by Nimmo is an instant rally.
If you want the power quotient, look no further than Mark Vientos. He’s coming off a breakout season with a 133 wRC+. In fact, he was a better hitter than Alonso and may very well continue to be that for the next decade.
Of course, the Mets need someone at either first or third. Vientos would be better at first giving the Mets some other options.
Alex Bregman is still a free agent. Over the last three years, he has a 122 wRC+, and he’s a far superior defender. In an overall picture, the Mets don’t lose with the bat, and they get better in the field.
On the trade market, Nolan Arenado is still available. He also presents a superior glove, but he has slipped offensively with a 104 wRC+ over the past two years.
With Arenado, we’re obviously looking at Vientos and/or Nimmo as protection in the lineup for Soto. The Mets can also have the option to move Nimmo back to lead off with Francisco Lindor as Soto’s protection.
There’s also the possibility Francisco Álvarez emerges. Of course, while the Mets would like for that to happen, they can’t make hope their plan.
The plan should be something concrete. There are definite options beyond just Alonso.
For Alonso, the real question is what is he thinking? He turned down a seven year $158 million offer, and he doesn’t seem to be able to reach anything near that this offseason.
There’s also the rumored three year $90 million deal he turned down from the Mets. The discourse is he wants more years but also wants to remain a Met.
At some point, there’s just no avenue for Alonso to be a Met anymore, and maybe, it’s just pride. He can’t handle accepting fewer years, or he wanted better money. Who knows?
Whatever the case, he may feel it’s better to take a short term deal for a high AAV with another team. This way, he’s not taking less from the Mets that they once offered.
Put another way, the Mets need to prepare for Alonso being too frustrated and accepting a deal elsewhere. They need to fully assess all of their options and do what is best for 2025 and beyond.
Whatever the case, it’s not Alonso or bust. It’s whatever makes the Mets better. Fortunately, there are still plenty of good viable options.
In the 121 years Major League Baseball had existed, you know you have to be truly great to be considered the best at anything. For Rickey Henderson, he was the undisputed greatest at two things: (1) stealing bases, (2) leadoff hitter.
Sadly, as immortal as he was as a baseball player, he was still a mortal man. Sadly, he had died at the age of 65 after battling pneumonia.
With Rickey, there is so much to discuss with his Hall of Fame career. He’s the all-time leader in runs and stolen bases. He has over 3,000 hits. He was the 1990 AL MVP and a two time World Series champion.
There was the funny story with the Mets where he walked up to John Olerud to tell him he had a teammate in Toronto who also wore his helmet in the field. That player, of course, was John Olerud.
That story may or may not be true, but it was quintessential Rickey.
When it comes to his Mets tenure, Rickey was a very important part of a team that captured Mets fans hearts. Steve Phillips and the Mets took a chance the 40 year old still had something in the tank, and boy, did he deliver.
In what was the last big year of his storied career, he had a .423 OBP and stole 37 bases. More than that, he was a mentor for a team looking to take the next step. He’d help Roger Cedeño set the Mets then single season stolen base record (66).
More than his mentorship, he came up big when needed. That included his great performance in the NL Wild Card Tiebreaker game.
He’d follow that with a great postseason. He hit .400 with a .500 OBP against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLDS. It shouldn’t be a surprise he was great as he was always a clutch player.
In some ways, Bobby Valentine helped coax Rickey’s last great year by finding him spots to rest. What it did was create unrest. Rickey would force his way away from the Mets in 2000.
While it seemed he quit on the Mets, he never quit on baseball. When teams didn’t want to sign him, he played in the Independent Leagues waiting for Major League teams to call (they would).
Imagine loving baseball that much. A future Hall is Famer, the greatest leadoff hitter of all-time, playing with has beens and never will bes just because he loved the game that much.
Rickey always had an ego (well deserved), but his ego wouldn’t stand in the way of his playing the game he loved. He played baseball until no one would have him play. His career spanned until he was 44.
Eventually, Rickey lost that fight and retired. Sadly, he lost the fight for his life as well. Despite losing those fights, he wins because Rickey is immortal.
He’s enshrined in Cooperstown. He’s the stolen base king and best lead-off hitter of all-time. People remember him for that and his talking about himself in the third person, and the great stories.
We’ve been lucky to be able to see Rickey at his best. We’re lucky to have experienced his greatness. We’re lucky because even in death his legend will never die.
The commentary when the New York Mets signed Francisco Lindor was he was grossly overpaid. That was a narrative screamed all over the airwaves, and it was at its most intense during Lindor’s early season slump.
Of course, the narrative was always false, and as usual, it had a twinge of #lolMets to it. With his near MVP season leading the Mets to the NLCS, Lindor shut that narrative up . . . for now.
Enter Juan Soto.
Soto received a MLB record 15 year $765 million contract. That carries a $51 million AAV. It’s a staggering number, and when he’s paid more than Shohei Ohtani, you’re allowed to question the disparity.
We can point out Soto is four years younger and just now entering his prime years. We can discuss Soto’s durability against Ohtani’s injury history. There’s more to contemplate, but it’s all a pointless exercise.
Determining whether or not Soto is overpaid is directly tied to the value he brings the team.
Each offseason had its own trends, but over the past six seasons, teams have paid roughly $7.6 million per 1 WAR. As a result, for Soto to be worth the deal, he would have to produce a 6.7 WAR per season.
On that note, Soto is coming off a season with a 7.9 WAR. Two of his past four seasons have exceeded 7.0 WAR. If Soto produces at this level during the peak years of his deal, he’s exceeding the AAV paid to him.
Of course, the $7.6 million is an average. We have twice seen the value surpass $9 million. At a $9 million valuation, Soto would only need to average a 5.7 WAR to be worth the deal.
Of course, this presumes WAR/$ doesn’t increase with increased revenues in baseball. As the WAR/$ increases, Soto’s production need not be at the 5-7 WAR value to be worth the deal.
Of course, the Mets signed him to be exactly that. As seen with pure hitters like Yordan Alvarez, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas a hitter of Soto’s caliber can absolute produce that value.
Yes, this presupposes Soto will hit like a Hall of Famer. That’s what he’s done in his career, and there is zero expectation he will suddenly cease being that.
Look, the Mets signed Ted Williams. With apologies to Darryl Strawberry, the Mets finally landed the next Ted Williams.
There’s knowledge that comes with being that level of a hitter. As Soto discussed in his press conference, his discussions with Aaron Judge made both better.
Notably, it was the best years of Soto’s and Judge’s careers. It’s a relationship Soto can now have with Lindor. Moreover, think of the impact Soto can have on Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos.
There’s also the message adding a player like Soto sends to the rest of the league. Look at the Mets back at Pedro Martinez in the 2004 offseason. It paved the way for Carlos Beltran and eventually Billy Wagner.
Was Pedro worth his contract? Well, partially thanks to Jeff Wilson, certainly not. However, it was a move which made the Mets relevant, and it led to helping the Mets acquire players which would nearly lead to a pennant.
The Mets arguably already had that with Lindor. However, acquiring Soto pushes things even further. It puts the team on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers and their three MVPs.
The Mets are at a completely different level now. They haven’t been here since the 1980s. The Mets are now set to have a decade plus run as a World Series contender.
Lindor brought relevance. Soto takes the Mets to a new level entirely. Yes, Soto’s production will mostly likely be worth $51 million per year. The extra intangibles he brings means he will assuredly be worth every single last penny of the deal.