The Los Angeles Dodgers made the first big signing of the offseason by inking two time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a five year deal. The deal was worth $182 million comprised of a $52 million signing bonus and deferred money.
With Snell, the perfect conditions were in place for things to get done this quickly:
- The Dodgers targeted Snell;
- The Dodgers will World Series contenders in 2025;
- The Dodgers have very deep pockets; and
- Snell lingered on the free agent market last offseason leading him to want to strike a quick deal this offseason.
For the Mets, Manae has vocalized his wanting to return to the Mets. The team and organization love him with teammates attending his wedding.
Manae finally seemed to hit that ceiling people thought he was capable of reaching. Part of that was changing his delivery to emulate Chris Sale. Another important factor was the analytics department coupled with Manaeās work with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner.
While not as long as Snell, Manae did have to wait until January to sign. He got a similar deal to Snell in both received a one year deal with a player option (both obviously declined their options).
Manea is a year older than Snell without the same historic success. Snell was the better of the two, but Manae was one of the better starters in the second half of the season.
Manae is not going to get a similar contract. That said, there should be an avenue for the Mets to strike early.
We know the team needs at least two starters. We donāt know where Corbin Burnes market will go. There are prevalent rumors Roki Sasaki going to the Dodgers is a fait accompli. There are other options with equal issues.
With Manae, you know thereās a pitcher who wants to be there. You know this is a pitcher who thrived in New York. Heās a pitcher who is everything the Mets could need or want.
The Mets need to move quickly to lock in Manae like the Dodgers did with Snell. They need to remove some uncertainty with their rotation. They need to move quick to sign Manae before someone else does.
All signs point to the New York Mets signing Juan Soto. Steve Cohen will not be outdone here, and heās found a player seemingly eager to be the next great player to come to the Mets.
Arguably, Soto would be THE best hitter to ever don a Mets uniform. When you go to the create a player on MLB the Show, in terms of hitting, it looks like Soto.
At 26, the Mets would be getting their next Mike Piazza, Carlos Beltran, or Francisco Lindor, i.e. a future Hall of Famer in their prime. However, Soto might be the most promising.
Thatās from an offensive standpoint. Defensively, itās an entirely different discussion.
Yes, Soto has been nominated for a Gold Glove the past two years. However, seeing how Lindor canāt get nominated, we see how much stock we should put into that process.
Soto is not a good outfielder. He had a -1 OAA in 2024, and he has a cumulative -25 OAA over the past three seasons. Over that time frame, he has rated as the worst defensive right fielder in all of baseball.
Making matters worse is Sotoās speed. Heās slow. To put it into perspective, DJ Stewart is faster. There were only six right fielders in all of baseball slower than him.
As a result, heās a poor to middling base runner. Put another way, heās effectively a one tool player, but that one tool is so worth it.
That goes double for the Mets. Soto hits .333/.466/.709 at Citi Field. Thatās Barry Bonds PED level production.
That production takes the Mets to the next level. Instead of losing in six games to the Los Angeles Dodgers they beat them. Heās that much of a difference maker.
Of course, contracts are not made in a bubble. They carry long term risks. As noted, we can argue Soto is already poised to move to DH, and we donāt know his feelings on being a full-time DH.
Of course, some of the concern could be mitigated with opt outs. That creates the drama of revisiting this every few years. It could also hasten a mistake contact in the future.
All told, there are obvious risks with Soto signing a megadeal. We canāt pretend they donāt exist. Itās something that needs to be considered, especially for David Stearns who puts an emphasis on run prevention.
All told, the Mets still should do everything possible to sign him. Heās the perfect fit for this team. Theyāre blessed to have an owner who wonāt hamstring building this roster because of this deal.
Soto should be a Met even if we should stop pretending this deal would carry significant risks.
Well, it looks like Harrison Bader will not be returning to the New York Mets because the Mets obtained Jose Siri from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Eric Orze.
Siri, 29, is a year younger than Bader and essentially does the same exact thing Bader did last year.
In 2024, Siri had a 16 OAA to Baderās 10. Over the past three years, Siri leads in OAA 16 to 14.
Siri is one of the fastest players in baseball with a sprint speed of 29.9 ft/sec. Bader was also quick, but he was at a 28.2. Itās one of the reasons Bader was a -1 Runner Run last year to Siriās 2.
Where Bader is better is hitting. Last year, Bader was an 85 wRC+ and has a 90 wRC+ for his career. Siri had a 70 wRC+ and an 89 for his career.
Against left-handed pitchers, Bader had a 70 wRC+ against lefties and for his career itās a 109. Siri had a 92 wRC+ against lefties last year and has a 76 for his career.
Siri rarely walks and strikes out far too often. He does have a good barrel rate, but his exit velocities are low. If you get the right hitting coach, maybe you could unlock something, but itās highly unlikely.
In reality, Siri is nothing more than a defensive specialist. Thatās all the Mets need from their fifth outfielder making him a much better fit for the role than Bader would be.
Thatās no slight on Bader who was a great fit for the Mets last year. Itās just that Siri will be a better fit for a team looking to sign Juan Soto while also having Jett Williams and Ryan Clifford on the horizon.
Siri was just the better fit for a defensive replacement and specialist. Bader is probably better, but Siri fits the role better. Getting him for a reliever the Mets wonāt use just makes this a smart move.
Heading into 2024, the New York Mets made it clear they werenāt rebuilding. It was a retooling. Even in that reset, they expected to make the postseason.
The decision made sense. They were paying for contracts like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. There were young players they needed to get a real look at the Major League level to see if they were part of the future.
Even if the Mets did not make the postseason, the 2024 season shouldāve been considered successful because they found out a lot about their team.
Brett Baty wasnāt the third baseman of the present, and now, he wonāt be the third baseman of the future. Thats fine because Mark Vientos was, and he was the best hitter at the position at the Major League level.
David Peterson finally emerged to be the starter the Mets thought he could be. Jose Butto and Dedniel NĆŗƱez emerged as very good relievers.
Even though he needed Tommy John and will be lost for 2025, Christian Scott looks like a real rotation piece in the future.
Thatās similar to what happened to Ronny Mauricio. He went from 2024 second baseman to a man potentially without a spot. For the Mets, they saw something in him and have interest to see if itās still there.
Speaking of second base, Luisangel AcuƱa helped save the Mets season when Francisco Lindor injured his back. Is he the Opening Day second baseman? He did enough to put himself in the mix.
Of course, AcuƱa has defensive versatility. He could be in the mix at center or third depending on a number of Mets offseason moves. Heās not the only player with defensive versatility.
Jett Williams is the Mets best prospect. He could be the second baseman, shortstop, or center fielder of the future. He mightāve gotten a look last year if not for injuries, and we may well see him in 2025.
The same can be said for Drew Gilbert. He was arguably the prize of the 2023 trade deadline. If not for injuries, he mightāve been up last year.
Heās one of several knocking on the door at Syracuse. Dom Hamel, Blade Tidwell, and Mike Vasil are awaiting their chances to see if theyāre the next Butto or Peterson.
Thatās nothing to say of the Double-A talent. For years, the Mets kept trying to draft Brandon Sproat, and when they finally got him, we all saw why they desperately wanted him. His battery mate, Kevin Parada, has struggled, but you never know when he finally figures it out.
There is a lot of young talent here waiting to help lead the Mets like we just saw Vientos do. That makes David Stearns job all the more challenging.
Who is the player you trade to try to get that big pitcher like Garrett Crochet? Who is untouchable? Who do you try at all costs not to block at the Major League level?
Certainly, none of these players impact the decisions on Juan Soto or bringing Pete Alonso back. However, there are other quality free agents out there who could forever block a Gilbert or a Vasil.
When making those decision, the Mets better be right. This is why this is still a retool and reset than need to go all-in.
The Mets already have enough. There is so much on the way. They donāt need a lot of help. They just need the right help.
Old friend, Michael Mayer of MMO and MMN, reports the New York Mets have reached out to Willy Adames to see if he would switch to third base for the New York Mets. For his part, Adames seems amenable to the switch.
Adames, 29, is in the prime of his career. Over the past four seasons, heās been a 3+ WAR player, and heās had a 119 wRC+ or better in three of the past five years.
Looking deeper at the stats at Baseball Savant, his strikeout rate has been steadily decreasing while his walk rate has been improving. His exit velocities and barrels are consistent with his sweet spot rates improving.
Defensively, he can still play short. Thats important because as we saw with Francisco Lindorās back, itās good to have a real backup shortstop option. Being fair, Luisangel AcuƱa did a great job, but if heās going to be an everyday player for the Mets, heās obviously going to need a position change.
That said, we did see Adames go from a 10 and 16 OAA at SS to a 1 in 2024. That was more in line with the negative OAAs he posted with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Looking at the whole picture, he has a strong arm and moves well to his right. That would allow Lindor to play up the middle more to compensate for his not moving as well up the middle and his weaker arm for the position.
Having Adames and Lindor on the left side of the infield promises to be the Mets best left side of the infield since it was manned by Rey OrdoƱez and Robin Ventura. This helps with run prevention and makes their pitching staff stronger.
This also improves the defense by moving Mark Vientos from third to first. Even with Vientosā defensive strides, he was still a -5 OAA there. Truth is, long term, he needs to move to first.
Yes, this would all hurt because it means losing Pete Alonso. However, when all is said and done, the Mets infield and team is better with Adames over Alonso. Thatās not said with any enthusiasm, and itās still true even if it will be a deeply unpopular opinion.
Again, if you want to blame someone here, blame the Wilpons. Alonso shouldāve been a Met in 2025.
Stearns is going to value run prevention. Adames does that far better than Alonso. Adamesā 119 wRC+ will offset losing Alonsoās 122. Truth is, Adames is the better and more complete player.
The Mets should forward and sign Adames because it makes the Mets better. It moves them closer to winning the World Series. Adames is the better option as much as it hurts to admit.
There was a report from Hector Gomez of Z101 Digital that Steve Cohen has discussed making Juan Soto the highest paid player of all time. Based on Sotoās statements after the season, that should mean the New York Mets are going to sign Soto.
For what itās worth, this is the same Gomez who had reported in 2022 that Soto was nearing an extension with the Washington Nationals. After that, we saw Soto twice traded.
Still, Soto hired Scott Boras, which is unusually indicative of a player who wants the largest deal possible. In Sotoās case, thatās the largest ever deal.
During Cohenās tenure, weāve seen him and Boras have a good rapport. The Mets did sign Max Scherzer with Cohen taking a part of those negotiations with Boras.
Cohen has also shown a willingness to open the checkbook for players in their prime. His first big move was to trade for Francisco Lindor and give him the largest deal in Mets history.
Similarly, Cohen made sure to keep Edwin DĆaz and Brandon Nimmo. Certainly, Cohen had shown he understands the prudence in signing players in their prime in the hopes of bringing the Mets their first World Series since 1986.
As we know, heās not always successful, but there are caveats. Carlos Correa failed a physical. The Los Angeles Dodgers matched Cohenās offer for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That said, in both cases, Cohen made the best offer.
When it comes to Soto, if Cohen wants him, itās hard to imagine another team makes a better offer. With Soto seemingly wanting the best possible contract, it would appear the Mets look like they will be the team best suited to sign him.
We can have discussions about whether this is the best course for Soto or the Mets. We can and should have those discussions, but at the time, with Cohen flying to meet with Boras, it does seem like the Mets are best positioning themselves.
While this sounds like a Mets fan setting himself up for disappointment, it appears the Mets will sign Soto before the offseason is over. With Cohen wanting it, this is something that should happen.
The New York Mets gambled last season offering Luis Severino a one year $13 million contract. The deal could not have gone better for either side.
Severino made 31 starts for the Mets pitching 182 innings. He had a 101 ERA+ and a 4.21 FIP. He wasnāt the All-Star caliber pitcher he was with the New York Yankees before all the injuries, but he proved he could be durable enough to last a full season.
Severino stopped tipping his pitches. He occasionally flashed brilliance. His first two starts of the postseason were very good. The work with Driveline and Jeremy Hefner paid off, and Severino was entering free agency poised to truly cash in.
The Mets opted to gamble again and extended Severino a qualifying offer, which is $21.05 million. If he accepts, thatās a nice pay raise for Severino albeit with some risk.
Last offseason, with his injuries and top pitching, Severino needed a one year deal to rebuild his value. In 2024, he accomplished that and appeared in line for a multi-year deal.
That was at least until he was given a qualifying offer. With that, there are going to be teams who will not pursue Severino. Severino was good in 2024 but probably not good enough to justify losing a draft pick and/or international bonus pool money.
For Severino, that puts him in a bad spot. At 31, does he want to try to find a multi year deal in an already limited market? Would such a deal be worth passing on $21.05 million? Certainly, his AAV would look more like his 2024 salary than the QO.
For the Mets, they need starters, and Severino as a mid rotation guy would be perfect. This buys time for Christian Scott to return from Tommy John. It also buys time for prospects like Blade Tidwell and Brandon Sproat.
Mostly, it gets a key part of their rotation locked in as the Mets look to take the next step in 2025. Doing that while not over leveraging into the future is the best case scenario.
Thatās Severino accepting the QO. Itās the best case scenario. It strengthens the 2025 rotation while mitigating the risk he doesnāt have any durability after pitching 100 more innings in a year.
Severino returning on a QO is a best case scenario. It would be a great start to the offseason. Itās the first step towards the Mets winning the 2025 World Series.
Back in 2019, the Wilpons hired Brodie Van Wagenen as GM. Knowing what we know now, their previous financial situation was going to force them to sell, and Van Wagenenās directive was apparently to get the Wilpons a World Series trophy with zero regard to the future of the franchise.
During this time, Van Wagenen strip mined the Mets farm system. Most of the trades made zero to no sense. Who else remembers the Keon Broxton trade?
Worse than any of that was putting Pete Alonso on the Opening Day roster.
We heard the platitudes. You do the right thing. You canāt risk losing games in April while Alonso is in Vegas. Your owe your fans the best possible roster with the best 25 players.
It sounded good, but like most things with the Wilpons, it was pure BS. They were lying, and they didnāt care about the long term ramifications because they wouldnāt own the team then.
Yes, Alonso being up at the beginning of the season allowed Alonso to break Aaron Judgeās rookie home run record. It certainly helped Alonso win Rookie of the Year.
Make no mistake. This all meant a lot to Mets fans at the time. Alonso deserved all of it. Still, it made little to no sense.
Remember at that trade deadline, the Wilpons (shockingly) went cheap and did not address the bullpen or the bench. The Washington Nationals would, and they would beat out the Mets for the Wild Card en route to winning the World Series.
The Mets were āall-inā when it came to Robinson Cano. They were all-in when it came to giving up a year of control to Alonso. They werenāt all-in when it came to finishing the roster at the trade deadline.
Those two weeks are bow proving far more damaging than we ever could have imagined.
Right now, Alonso should be locked in for the 2025 season as the first baseman. They couldāve had the luxury of having him securely in place as the Mets worked around the edges to make this a World Series contending roster.
Instead, they have to address Alonso and his power production while sureing up their rotation, bullpen, and outfield.
Itās not like the Steve Cohen led Mets havenāt tried. They offered Alonso a seven year $158 million extension. Alonso, now represented by Scott Boras, turned it down.
The Mets tried, but Alonso wanted more. There is no blame here on either side. That goes double with Alonso, who will likely only get one true crack at free agency.
Just remember, the Mets are in this spot because of the Wilpons. Instead of Alonso and Juan Soto, the Mets may be in an either/or situation. Worse yet, they may not sign either player.
This has also created the unfortunate circumstance of having to debate the merits of keeping Alonso. It feels dirty and wrong to point out heās lost some exit velocity and barrels.
Heās a player who is leaving his peak, and you donāt want to be on the hook for big dollars. Worse yet, with his defense, he will be a DH sooner rather than later. That will mean big bucks to a reluctant DH who may not be anywhere near this caliber of power hitter midway through his next deal.
The best thing for the Mets was to keep Alonso another year and see if he rebounded from the 2024 regular season. They needed to see if he was the player reborn in the postseason.
https://twitter.com/awfulannouncing/status/1842019321888821370?s=46&t=C-cAjvMjkzGA7iCb6Xr6ng
Sadly, that wonāt happen because the Wilpons tried to mortgage everything to win the 2019 World Series. However, they were too over leveraged to actually accomplish that goal.
Now, we are pondering life without Alonso. Weāre pondering if it makes sense to keep him. Weāre pondering if the money for him is better spent on other players.
Weāre doing all of this when Alonso should be a Met in 2025. However, heās not because of another Wilpon grift. Hopefully, this will be the very last time the Wilpons can ever harm this franchise, its players, or the fans ever again.
When looking at the New York Mets free agents, itās obvious they need to push to keep Sean Manae. Of course, fans want to keep Pete Alonso.
However, when you break it all done, Jesse Winker might just be the most important free agent to re-sign this offseason.
Winker has had an interesting relationship with this franchise. First, he was an irritant. Then, he joined a Mets franchise he said he long wanted to play for. He following a massively disappointing post-trade deadline regular season with a great postseason.
With the postseason, we saw Winker slot nicely in as a platoon DH option. It was from that position, he did the most damage as a Met including his NLDS homer against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Looking at this Mets team, there isnāt a pure DH option available. Digging deeper into free agency, there isnāt a clear cut better option than Winker, and no, weāre not going to consider that horrendous human being, Marcell Ozuna, as an option.
Winker, 31, has been a solid hitter and on-base machine in his career. Over his eight year career, he has a 121 wRC+ and a .367 OBP. In many ways, you could describe him as Brandon Nimmo lite.
Heās at the tail end of his prime. After a troubling decline in his metrics the previous few seasons, he rebounded in 2024 showing an improved exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate.
Mostly, with the Mets, he brings something different to the table. He brings an edge they havenāt had in years, and he has a way of getting under everyoneās skin the way he used to irritate Mets fans in previous seasons.
Going back to Nimmo for a moment, the Mets do need other everyday outfield options to help keep him healthy. For his part, Winker can play left field but canāt everyday. In all honesty, heās one of the worst corner outfielders in the game as evidenced by the Mets keeping a hobbled Nimmo in left over him.
That said, itās a 162 game season. The Mets can find spots for Winker to give Nimmo a day. Thereās certainly value in that.
The other downside is heās really just a platoon option at DH with a career 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. However, when looking at the Mets roster, that might be a benefit for them.
Starling Marte is 36, struggles against right-hand pitching, and might actually be a worse fielder than Winker. The Mets always need Mark Vientos in the lineup, but they donāt need his glove in the field. Francisco Ćlvarez can benefit from more days off behind the plate while getting consistent plate appearances.
All told, whether or not the Mets sign Juan Soto, Winker is a fit at DH. The team can use his bat from the left side at DH, his flair for the dramatic, and his edge. Heās the rare player built to thrive in New York, and the Mets should work quickly to keep him here.
The one shock in the New York Mets loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS was the fact Freddie Freeman didnāt kill them. Not once.
Instead, it was Tommy Edman. As a Mets fan, you had to be livid seeing him bobble that Anthony Volpe grounder allowing Jazz Chisholm Jr. to score and give the New York Yankees a 3-2 lead in the 10th.
All that did was set the stage.
As baseball fans, we thought it was the stage for Shohei Ohtani. Instead, it was the stage for Aaron Boone to show the world just how awful a manager he is.
It was also for Freeman to show heās not just a Mets killer. Heās a New York killer.
With two on and one out, Boone went to Nestor Cortes, who had not pitched in over a month, to pitch to Ohtani. Not Tim Hill who had a phenomenal 2024 season and a 0.84 career postseason ERA. No, he opted for Cortes.
Cortes would throw two pitches. Ohtani fouled out on a great play by Alex Verdugo. With Verdugo falling out of play, the runners advanced. and the Yankees walked Mookie Betts to load the bases.
This set the stage for Freeman, who has been hobbled by an ankle injury, to do his best Kirk Gibson impression. On the first pitch Freeman saw, he hit the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history:
Mets fans are all too familiar with Freemanās antics. If you are a Mets fan rooting for the Dodgers in this series, you canāt even enjoy that win because of the flashbacks that homer gives you.
Speaking of flashbacks, this is reminiscent of the 1988 Dodgers. That team had the league MVP, beat the Mets in the NLCS, and had a shocking walk-off win in Game 1 of the World Series.
That Dodgers team beat the Oakland Athletics in five games. With the Dodgers winning the game where the Yankees threw Gerrit Cole, you start to wonder if this World Series will be similarly short.
Of course, that discussion and all discussions is because the Dodgers won Game 1. They won because Freddie Freeman transformed from Mets killer to become the New York killer.