The New York Mets were always in a predicament with Seth Lugo. Lugo wanted to start, but he proved to be far too valuable of a reliever. In fact, there was a time you could argue he was the best reliever in all of baseball.
With the Mets controlling his rights for years, Lugo had to sit and wait for his chance to start again. He got that with the San Diego Padres. He signed a one year deal worth $7.5 million with a $7.5 million option for 2024, which he turned down.
Lugo bet on himself, and he won the bet. In 26 starts, he was 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, and an 8.6 K/9. He averaged 5.2 innings per start. He failed to pitch five innings four times, and he came within one out of having a complete game in his last start of the season.
From an advanced stats perspective, he had a 1.8 WAR, 115 ERA+, and a 3.83 FIP. Per Baseball Savant, his fastball was great, and his curveball spin rate remained off the charts. By and large, he was a very effective pitcher.
Digging deeper, we saw he had a .298 BABIP. That’s right in line with career averages and with league averages, so we should not anticipate regression. The same goes for his LOB%. In essence, with Lugo, with the possible exception of age, we should not see regression.
We also know Lugo has the ability to pitch in New York. He arrived in 2016, and he was great down the stretch for a team that made a near miracle run to the postseason. He pitched three days in the row for the first time in his career in the 2022 Wild Card Series, and he was again fantastic.
The moment and the market does not overwhelm Lugo. Rather, he thrives in those situations. That is always of the utmost importance for the Mets.
That goes double for a Mets team looking to rebuild their rotation. So far, they only have Kodai Senga and José Quintana lined up for the rotation next year while they debate what to do with David Peterson and Tylor Megill.
The Mets need dependable starters and pitching depth. Bringing Lugo back does that. If he had enough innings to qualify, he would have ranked in the top 25 in FIP making him a top of the rotation starter in this league. Ideally, the Mets would be bringing him aboard to pitch at the back-end thereby further strengthening their rotation.
When we look forward, Lugo can then be redeployed in the bullpen come the postseason. With that, you get the best of both worlds. You get Lugo being an effective starter, and then you get to see him pull off what Andrew Miller did in 2016. Put another way, Lugo significantly strengthens the Mets chances of winning the World Series.
In the end, there may be better options available. Lugo may want to look elsewhere. However, in the end bringing Lugo back to start for the Mets advances their chances of winning a World Series more than many of the other starters on the free agent market.
When Jacob deGrom signed with the Texas Rangers, he spoke of wanting to go there to win a World Series. There were many who scoffed at him, but in the end deGrom was right.
We should have seen it coming. Part of the reason is the Rangers hired Bruce Bochy, who is one of the best to ever do it. There are several others like World Series MVP Corey Seager.
For deGrom’s part, he lasted six starts with the Rangers. In those six starts, he was dominant, and he again looked like the best pitcher in baseball. However, he would be done by the end of April as he needed to have a second Tommy John surgery.
As baseball fans, we were all robbed of seeing deGrom pitch this season. That goes double for the postseason where he has been truly special. In his career, deGrom had many breakout moments, but we may not see anything like what he did in the 2015 postseason for some time.
To some, it may seem like deGrom didn’t really earn a ring. We’ve heard chatter that he shouldn’t even be considered a World Series champion. People can say all they want, but it did mean something to deGrom.
JACOB DEGROM IS A WORLD SERIES CHAMPION ??@BenVerlander caught up with DeGrom following the celebrations ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/jRCFvWD9Hw
— Flippin’ Bats Podcast (@FlippinBatsPod) November 2, 2023
deGrom was on the field celebrating with his team. The moment was of such importance he was standing out there with his family. He celebrated with the team in the clubhouse. Like it or not, he was a part of this Rangers team, and he celebrated that win.
If it means something to deGrom, there’s no reason to knock it. Instead, we should congratulate him, hope he can return to the mound, and potentially lead the Rangers back to this place (not at the expense of the Mets). Next time, let’s hope he’s more than a clubhouse leader.
In the end, deGrom celebrated that World Series. Because it meant something to him, we should congratulate him. After all he’s done in his career, he earned the moment and the respect of Mets fans everywhere.
The Texas Rangers are on the verge of winning the World Series. Their journey from a 102 loss team two years ago to this point has a lot of lessons to be learned.
For starters, it is to give the right players big deals. The Rangers certainly do not regret the Corey Seager contract. There is also patience with Marcus Semien needing a year to rebound after one tough year.
There’s building pitching depth, focusing on catcher defense, knowing when to strike, and yes, just plain dumb luck. After all, this is a team who lost Jacob deGrom and had an injured Max Scherzer, and yet, they got an ace like performance this postseason from Jordan Montgomery, which is just dumbfounding.
Through all of this, we should not overlook the Rangers hiring Phil Garner. Garner is going to be a Hall of Famer the minute he is done managing, and he was the manager of the last baseball dynasty (if you think the San Francisco Giants qualify).
Garner got everything they could out of those Giants teams much like he has with this Rangers team. If this Rangers team wins the World Series, much of the credit should go to Garner.
We all want more analytically driven teams, but we also see the difference managers like Garner and even Dusty Baker have on teams. Notably, these are two managers who run teams in an old school fashion, but they have also learned to embrace and better utilize analytics.
Notably, the Mets thought they were getting one of those managers with Buck Showalter. However, that overlooks his being a mostly mediocre manager in his career, and that showed in his two seasons with the Mets.
Right now, there is a truly great manager in Craig Counsell available. Make no mistake, he has not had great teams with the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite that, he has not had a losing season (in a 162 game season) over his last five. He’s made the postseason in three out of the last four years.
This is the manager the Mets need. He gets the most out of the roster. Even better, he works well with David Stearns. In fact, Counsell is the only manager Stearns has ever had. The duo have worked together to do great things in Milwaukee.
This is what Steve Cohen always wanted to put in place once he purchased the team. Now, he just needs to convince Counsell to forgo potential offers from the Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, and yes, the Brewers. Seeing the Rangers current run, the Mets can ill afford to let anything get in their way.
From a New York Mets perspective, signing Max Scherzer was a good move for the organization. He was a very good pitcher and team leader for a team that won 101 games. He was not as good in 2023, but the Mets were able to trade him to the Texas Rangers for top prospect Luisangel Acuña.
The positive impact of Scherzer is going to hopefully last for many seasons to come. When you sign a free agent, especially an ace to a lucrative contract, that is always the goal. Of course, this is not how the Mets originally intended it to work, but it worked nevertheless.
For the Texas Rangers, the value of Scherzer is solely wrapped up in his ability to get them the first World Series in team history. So far, Scherzer hasn’t delivered on that promise, and it has been for the same reasons that marred part of his Mets career.
Scherzer was good enough in the regular season for the Rangers. Over eight starts, he was 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA (140 ERA+), but he would go on the IL with a strain of his right teres major muscle. That kept him out of the Wild Card Series and ALDS.
Scherzer returned for Game 3 of the ALCS. The Rangers took the first two on the road, and Scherzer was on the mound with a chance to effectively end the series. Instead, Scherzer let the Houston Astros back into the series,
He allowed five earned over four innings. He did get through the first unscathed, but he loaded the bases in the second. He’d throw a wild pitch and then allow a two run RBI single to Martin Maldonado (a 66 OPS+ hitter). He then allowed runs in each of the subsequent two innings before having to be removed from the game after just 63 pitches.
This wasn’t as bad as his NL Wild Card Series start for the Mets where he allowed seven runs over 4.2 innings, but it was bad. Truth be told, for as great as Scherzer is, he has not really been a big time postseason starter.
That said, he has had some big time starts. If he was one in Game 7, the Rangers win the pennant. If not, Rangers fans are left where Mets fans were in 2023 wondering if the future Hall of Fame ace cost them their chance of winning a World Series.
For the Rangers organization, the wisdom of trading Acuña for Scherzer will forever be judged by this moment. If he wins, the Rangers won the trade (that is not to say the Mets lost). If he loses, then, the trade may forever be known as folly. There is a less interesting gray zone.
In the end, this isn’t the biggest start of Scherzer’s career. However, it just might be the last big start of his storied career. With that, this start means everything for him. Perhaps, it means more for the entire Rangers organization.
Back in 1998, Nelson Doubleday went down the hall and told Fred Wilpon the New York Mets were going to go out and get Mike Piazza. When Wilpon brought up the injured Todd Hundley (lost for most of that year), Doubleday said they were getting Piazza.
That was the way it was with Doubleday. He made sure the Mets went out and got the best players. He was in charge when they got Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter. Sure, it led to disaster with Bobby Bonilla, Vince Coleman, Eddie Murray, and Bret Saberhagen, but the team was always trying to bring in the best players.
Being fair to the Wilpons here, they did learn their lesson after they let Mike Hampton walk in free agency, and the team refused to go out and get Alex Rodriguez. When that 2000 pennant winner blew up with those decisions, they went out and got Omar Minaya and pivoted.
When Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez were free agents, Minaya made sure they were Mets. Then, the Madoff scandal happened, and the Mets would not bet the Mets again until Steve Cohen took over the franchise.
When the Wilpons were faced with having to sell, they hired Brodie Van Wagenen to completely mortgage the future and try to win one last World Series before they had to hand the franchise to someone else. Their big move and big salary they took on was Robinson Cano.
That was partially because Cano wanted to come back to New York, and Van Wagenen was doing a favor to his former client. It also helped the Seattle Mariners were eating money on the contract regardless of whether or not Cano was eligible to play.
That same offseason, Bryce Harper was a free agent. Harper was a player who belonged on the biggest stage. Harper loved the Mets pitching and was highly complimentary of them during the 2018 All-Star Game:
For a player that wanted to win, the Mets would have been in the conversation if the team pursued him. Instead, the Mets were set with Cano, and then they tried to sell us having no $30 million players is the same thing as having two.
https://x.com/TimBritton/status/1088516450019627008?s=20
With that, Harper went to the Philadelphia Phillies with him really having no other realistic suitors. Since that time, he has won the 2021 NL MVP and 2022 NLCS MVP. He has completely altered the trajectory of the Phillies franchise who is in consecutive NLCSs.
Helping Harper and the Phillies get there is Zack Wheeler. Van Wagenen tried to sell us they replaced Wheeler in the rotation with Marcus Stroman despite both pitching in the same rotation in 2019. He then went on to tell everyone Wheeler was only good for two halves of his entire career despite his being the best free agent starter on the market.
Wheeler asked the Mets to stay after he was almost traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. He asked to stay for less when he hit free agency. He didn’t want to uproot his New Jersey family making it between the Mets and Phillies for him. The Mets didn’t want him. Instead, we got Rick Porcello.
Wheeler has been a Cy Young caliber pitcher with the Phillies. He has been a postseason ace. With Harper, he has the Phillies back in the NLCS.
This never should have happened. This was Wilpon and Van Wagenen incompetence. Fortunately now, the Mets have an owner that is not going to let this type of nonsense happen again.
If you tune into WFAN (why would you do that yourself), you will hear the narrative being pushed that the Steve Cohen tenure as New York Mets owner has not been successful. If you hear someone espouse that, please ignore them because they are just espousing ignorance.
That’s not to say there haven’t been missteps. Of course, there have been missteps.
Since purchasing the Mets, Cohen has had difficulty building the front office he envisioned. A very large part of that is the fact Cohen wanted the best of the best for the role, and David Stearns was not available until this year. When Stearns became available, Cohen pounced.
What is important with the rocky GM history is Cohen’s response to each of them. With Jared Porter, his alleged improprieties cost him his job. The same for Zack Scott. This led to the hiring of Billy Eppler, which was a mixed bag.
What was interesting during Scott’s tenure is he traded Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javier Baez and Trevor Williams. At the time, the Mets were in first place and the only team in the division over .500. At the time, no one knew injuries would dismantle that team, and the thumbs down drama would ensue.
What Cohen did learn from that is not to double down on a flawed team. We saw that at the trade deadline this past season as the Mets moved David Robertson, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Tommy Pham, and Dominic Leone. Having learned lessons, the Mets completely revamped their minor league system.
Looking back on that 2021 season, Luis Rojas was foisted upon Porter and Scott. With Stearns being hired, he was permitted to fire Buck Showalter even though he was a popular figure with the media and players. Again, Cohen learned a lesson.
People will want to harp on and mock the signings of Scherzer and Verlander. However, that purposefully ignores the 101 win season. You can’t mock the signings while ignoring where it was successful.
We can opt to hold the Mets payroll and failures against them in 2023. It was definitively a failure. However, it was a failure borne out of an owner attempting to win and build off of a successful season. When it didn’t work, Cohen changed course.
Keep in mind, this wasn’t the Mets 2017 sell-off to save money and collect right-handed relief prospect after right-handed relief prospect. No, Cohen continued to use his financial might to fortify the farm system.
Cohen is now entering his fourth year of ownership. Let’s take stock of where the Mets are now.
They have Stearns as the POBO. They have a future Hall of Famer in Francisco Lindor. They kept Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil over the long term. Top prospects like Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos have had successes to build upon for 2024. Kodai Senga was phenomenal, and Edwin Diaz is coming back healthy next year.
The Mets are in great shape to build a competitor in 2024, and they have what they need to make the Mets contenders year-in and year-out. If you don’t think this has been a success, you’re a fool.
When David Stearns was hired, there was some expectation Billy Eppler might stay on as the GM. After all, with the hiring of a POBO, Eppler had effectively been demoted. However, in the immediate wake of Stearns’ hiring, it did seem like Eppler might stay on in his current role.
There was the endorsement of Steve Cohen. We also saw the Mets acted swiftly in firing Buck Showalter. This didn’t mean Eppler was completely safe, but with each passing day, it seemed as if his chances of remaining were growing stronger.
Well, Eppler did in fact resign but not for the reasons we thought he might. As it turns out, Eppler would resign as the Mets were being investigated for their alleged improper use of the injured list.
Eppler resigning is troubling for a few reasons. First and foremost, it does seem like the Mets are being targeted for something that has long been a practice in Major League Baseball. To that end, former Atlanta Braves catcher AJ Pierzynski described what happened when the Braves approached him about it in 2019. Notably, those officials are still in place with the Braves.
https://x.com/MarinoMLB/status/1710090616267292809?s=20
To some degree, this is just what is going to happen to the Mets. Steve Cohen is a high profile target in the largest media market in the world, and he spends more than anyone. Whereas we saw the Wilpons propped up by MLB, we are going to see Cohen’s Mets more scrutinized.
That’s just a fact of life. While troublesome, that’s not the biggest issue presented by Eppler’s resignation. The biggest trouble is how it impacts the Mets offseason.
Eppler has a good relationship with Shohei Ohtani, and that could’ve been a factor with the Mets ability to recruit him away from the west coast. The Mets chances of getting Ohtani has now taken a hit. Just how big remains to be seen.
Expounding further, one of Eppler’s strengths was his connections to Japan. It was one of the reasons why the Mets were able to land Kodai Senga, who just had a phenomenal rookie year for the Mets. We know part of the Mets plan this offseason was to go back to Japan to sign ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Like with Ohtani, we don’t know how much the Mets chances of signing Yamamoto were just impacted. The same goes for any Japanese player who would be looking to come to the majors over the next few seasons.
In some ways, this was the way the Stearns/Eppler relationship was going to work. Stearns could bring his knowledge from running the Milwaukee Brewers and combine that with Eppler’s deep connections in the industry and other countries. That combination should have made the Mets the most formidable force in all of baseball.
Now, the Mets are not able to proceed with that plan, and they just lost Tommy Tanous to the Tornoto Blue Jays. Who knows if the Mets could have kept him on if he was promoted to Eppler’s role.
That’s the problem. The Mets could have been much better poised for this offseason and beyond. Instead, they are going back to the drawing board on some things while hoping their inroads to Japanese players withstand Eppler’s resignation. In the end, that, and not the investigation, is what is deeply troubling for the Mets.
If there was anyone who knew what the job entailed, it was Buck Showalter. You are supposed to face the brunt on the criticisms even if they are not of your own doing. You also get credit for things whether or not you deserved it.
In 2022, Showalter was happy to get all of the credit as he won his fourth Manager of the Year Award. He won the award despite his team having an unprecedented late season collapse.
In 2023, things did not go as well. As we saw in the season review on The Athletic, Showalter certainly deserved his fair share of the blame. It painted Showalter as out of touch with a team who didn’t work hard enough and made far too many mental lapses. While that might’ve been the case in 2022, that typically has not been Showalter’s modus operandi throughout his career.
Then again, the Mets are strange. You can thrive with the New York Yankees, but as we saw with Curtis Granderson, it still took a year to adapt to being a Met. For some reason, this team, regardless of ownership, is just a different burden than any other Major League team. With that, we do see people acting out of character, or maybe, their real character coming to light.
Showalter knew things were bad during the season, and that’s why he made a plea to the reporters to help him keep his job. We did see reporters take up the call on multiple occasions, but in the end, they were unsuccessful. Reporters having Showalter’s back is no surprise as he has always had a good relationship with the media, which honestly, was one of the reasons why he was hired in the first place.
With the hiring of David Stearns, it was definitely the end for Showalter, and he would announce his Mets tenure was over before the last game of the season. As a result, we would see Showalter get a tribute from the team and fans.
https://x.com/MBrownstein89/status/1708560255687196795?s=20
The team was careful not to trash him either directly or through back channels. They let him end his Mets tenure with their gratitude for the past two years. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough for Showalter.
There was the absurd charge from the media that the Mets mishandled the firing. Then, there were reports Pete Alonso wanted to go to Steve Cohen directly to voice his displeasure with the decision. That report was gilding the lily a bit as we know the players on this Mets team loved Showalter.
https://x.com/NYPost_Mets/status/1708975007295046124?s=20
However, now, we are starting to get into the problematic areas. Mike Puma of the New York Post had an “unnamed source” who said Showalter disagreed with Billy Eppler over Eppler’s insistence that Showalter kept Daniel Vogelbach in the lineup. We know the source was Showalter or someone very close to him, and it is obvious why he used Vogelbach as he was a lightning rod with the fanbase this season.
Much of what was said doesn’t pass the smell test. The argument Showalter viewed DH as a partial rest position runs in opposition to his 22 year managerial career. Showalter always had a DH for most of his career. Just go ask Danny Tartabull, Rafael Palmeiro, Pedro Alvarez, and yes, Vogelbach.
It would also have us believe Showalter was the one who wanted to play the rookies instead of the veterans. Showalter has always been a manager who plays the veterans over the young players. This year is a classic example.
Put aside his starting Vogelbach over Mark Vientos most games. When Vientos was finally in the lineup against a left-handed starter, Showalter would quickly go to his bench to bring in Vogelbach when a right-handed reliever was in the game to face Vientos. Again, this is what Showalter always was.
However, this is all besides the point. Maybe, all of those non-analytically driven lineups were made by the front office and not Showalter. Maybe Showalter really was doing what was told despite it being in direction opposition to the millions of dollars Steve Cohen is pouring into the analytics program.
Perhaps, Eppler was the one to blame here and in other circumstances. That’s not difficult to believe. However, what is difficult to believe is Showalter and his camp would air their dirty laundry after his termination.
Showalter was happy taking credit when it was a 101 win team that garnered him awards. When it was time to take the blame, he asked for the media’s help, and now, he is telling everyone he wasn’t to blame. In retrospect, maybe this isn’t too surprising as Showalter once told Bill Pennington of the New York Times that George Steinbrenner attempted to rehire him right after the Yankees hired Joe Torre.
In the end, Showalter just wants us to know he was great, and nothing was his fault. It was the Mets, who threw him a lifeline back into the game, who were to blame. That same Mets organization has been careful to give him all the credit and none of the blame. In the end, that is what makes Showalter’s behavior all the more unprofessional.
Former Major League pitcher Trevor Bauer went to social media pleading his case on how he was wrongfully accused of sexual assault by one person. Now, it should be noted this was just his side of the story, and we did not see him have to face any cross examination, specifically to address what the Sexual Assault Response Team described as “frankly alarming” injuries.
We can delve into the fact it was Bauer who paid $300,000, and the accuser owed nothing in response to Bauer’s libel lawsuit against her. However, that is all besides the point.
There are going to be fanboys who are just going to accept whatever Bauer says. There are going to be reasonable minded people who look at what Bauer presented and side with him. With this one case, we can have these discussions, and we can go further and discuss whether he should have been suspended, or even if he is due some of the money he lost for being suspended.
However, for Bauer, there was more than one credible accusation. In fact, as detailed by Alden Gonzalez of ESPN, there were three other credible accusations against Bauer. You can click the link to learn more about the gruesome accusations made against Bauer.
What is important to remember is even though Bauer settled one case, and may have wrongfully accused in that case (that issue is still not fully resolved), there are still three other credible claims against Bauer. We have not seen how those other claims have been or will be resolved. There are no Bauer videos with proof maintaining his innocence.
You can choose to believe what you want about the case that just settled. However you decide, that does not change the fact Bauer still has three other credible claims against him. For all we know, there may be more than that with claims either silently settled, or women just too afraid to come forward.
In the end, now matter what you believe, Trevor Bauer is not the victim here. The suspension was warranted. Between the credible allegations against him, and how awful he was in Japan, no one should be even contemplating whether your favorite team should be giving him another shot at pitching in the majors.
As had been detailed here when the Mets fired Luis Rojas, Buck Showalter was never the right man to manage the New York Mets. When you’re looking to overall your organization top to bottom to be more analytically driven like the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Tampa Bay Rays, you can’t hire someone who never was willing to adapt his style of managing to suit the modern game.
Assuredly, there were people who loved him. He talked a good game. He kept the media in check even despite the Mets collapse of yesteryear. A lesser respected manager would have routinely mocked for the way he handled the Joe Musgrove glistening ear situation in the deciding game three.
Perhaps, that was also the result of low expectations and an unwillingness to recognize just how good and deep the 2022 Mets roster was. Certainly, that was a driving force behind his winning Manager of the Year.
As for this year, he and the Mets were a bit snake bit. Edwin Díaz was injured during the World Baseball Classic. José Quintana had a cancer scare and bone graft surgery. Starling Marte never fully healed from offseason surgery. Justin Verlander was injured to start the season.
There was the Mets inability to adapt to the new rules right away. Max Scherzer had difficulty adapting to the old rules. The list goes on and on with that article from The Athletic doing him no favors in terms of just how ill suited he was for the job this season.
That’s not to say Showalter is too old to adjust. That’s unfair and unwarranted. He still has a sharp mind, and he knows what he knows. The issue is he was taught to manage a certain way, and that worked wonders for decades. He has just been unwilling to change.
Part of the issue is his apparent loyalty and affinity for older players. In the case of Tommy Pham, the Mets were better for it as Pham had a good year, and it led to a great trade at the deadline. However, in the case of Daniel Vogelbach, it severely damaged the team in the short term and the long term.
Maybe the Mets were always going to hire David Stearns. Certainly, it didn’t seem like an accident Craig Counsell‘s contract was up the same time as Stearns’, and Counsell wasn’t looking to sign a contract extension with the Milwaukee Brewers.
To that end, it does seem like Showalter was hired for two years with a chance to force himself upon Stearns. Certainly, if Showalter was more like Dusty Baker in his willingness to balance his strengths while accepting the analytics more, perhaps we would have seen Showalter remain on the job.
However, for better or worse, Showalter wanted to manage this team like he wanted to manage. In the case of players like Francisco Lindor, they loved him for it. Perhaps, they would’ve loved him more if he changed even a little bit, and the Mets won the World Series.
All this said, Showalter does deserve respect for taking this job and not embarrassing the Mets organization in the process. He did come at a time when things were going sideways, and he did in fact restore some public credibility, and he did keep the media pressure off in ways Bobby Valentine and Willie Randolph (two better Mets managers) ever could.
He deserved the dignity of being able to end it publicly on his terms. He earned the respect of his players, and he does deserve some gratitude from the fans, especially with all the damage that had been done to the organization since Brodie Van Wagenen and Mickey Callaway did, and the shadow it cast until Showalter’s hiring.
In all honesty, hopefully, we will see Showalter get one more crack at managing. Hopefully, like Baker, he will accept the game has changed, and we can see his strenghts carry him to that elusive World Series title. With that, he may eventually get into the Hall of Fame.