Jacob deGrom
Let’s face facts. If not for Madison Bumgarner, this would be a title defense for the Royals as opposed to redemption. It took Bumgarner everything he had to help the Giants win the World Series.
In the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner went 2-0 with 1 save, a 0.43 ERA, 0.476 WHIP, and a 7.3 K/9. He basically said to his teammates, I got three; you just need to get one. In the three games he pitched in, the Royals averaged one run per game. In the other games, the Royals averaged six runs per game. That’s a huge gap.
With all the noise over the Royals hitting the 95+ MPH pitching well, I wanted to see what Bumgarner threw in that World Series:
- 93.40 MPH fastball 52.23% of the time
- 85.04 MPH changeup 3.78% of the time
- 76.25 MPH curve 15.12% of the time
- 87.46 MPH cutter 27.84% of the time
- 67.20 MPH slow curve 1.03% of the time
This shows not only how to beat the Royals but how to pitch in general. You want to establish the fastball and keep the batters off balance with the offspeed pitches. Let’s see how the Mets stud muffins compare this postseason:
- 95.86 MPH fastball 59.56% of the time
- 88.08 MPH change 11.48% of the time
- 90.29 MPH slider 14.75% of the time
- 84.01 MPH curve 14.21% of the time
- 96.23 MPH fastball 37.89% of the time
- 96.44 MPH sinker 18.01% of the time
- 86.54 MPH change 15.84% of the time
- 90.03 MPH slider 12.01% of the time
- 81.63 MPH curve 16.15% of the time
- 98.66 MPH fastball 26.64% of the time
- 98.63 MPH sinker 32.31% of the time
- 89.46 MPH change 16.16% of the time
- 87.96 MPH slider 8.73% of the time
- 81.53 MPH curve 16.16% of the time
What does this information tell us? The Mets three aces pitch similarly to Bumgarner. They establish the fastball and use the same ratio of breaking pitches to keep the hitters off balance. There are two key differences here: (1) Bumgarner is a lefty; and (2) the Royals offense is much improved.
However, keep in mind the Royals couldn’t handle Bumgarner at all last year. Now, the Mets are running out three Bumgarners out there. They will pitch in six of the seven games if necessary.
In the end, I’m not sure how the Royals can keep up their 5.9 runs per postseason game. If they want to beat the Mets they will either have to find a way or pitch much better. If they don’t do either or both, the Mets will win the World Series.
It seemed like the immediate narrative after the conclusion of both League Championship Series was the Mets biggest strength may not be a strength in the World Series:
Royals vs. 95-mph+ pitches, MLB ranks in parentheses:
BA: .284 (1st)
SLG: .432 (2nd)
K%: 15.1% (1st)Mets throw the most 95-mph+ pitches.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 24, 2015
As we all know, the Mets greatest strength is its good young pitching. The Mets pitching throws it hard and over 95 MPH:
- Matt Harvey – 96.54 MPH four seamer and 96.11 MPH sinker
- Jacob deGrom – 95.81 MPH four seamer and 95.49 MPH sinker
- Noah Syndergaard – 97.75 MPH four seamer and 97.78 MPH sinker
- Steven Matz 94.57 MPH four seamer
- Jeurys Familia 98.21 MPH four seamer and 97.66 MPH sinker
That’s not good news. Fortunately for the Mets, that’s not the whole story. While the Royals hit high heat well, they do not hit offspeed pitching and breaking balls well. The Royals are only hitting .220 on pitches 87 MPH and below. The highest percentage of Mets pitches this postseason was in this range.
We saw it in the NLCS. The Mets did throw their 95+ MPH fastballs, but they also mixed in their offspeed and breaking pitches early. The Mets pitching isn’t great just because of their fastballs. They’re great because they pitch great.
During the regular season, the Mets ranked second in WHIP with a 1.18 mark. They ranked fourth with a 3.49 K/BB ratio. They ranked fourth with a 3.43 ERA. They allowed the second least amount of walks, and they were sixth with a .243 batting average against. All said and done, if you want to beat the Mets pitching, you have to beat them. They’re not going to walk you, and they’re not giving up many hits.
This either lines up perfectly for the Royals or it’ll be a complete disaster. The Royals were second to last in walks. They struck out the least amount of times. They were third in team batting average. They were 24th (last in the AL) in homers, but they were 11th in slugging.
Overall, the Royals put a lot of balls in play against a staff that doesn’t allow a lot of hits. At times like this, I’m reminded of the adage of good pitching beats good hitting. It’s worked for the Mets so far this postseason.
Throughout 2015, Jacob deGrom has been the Mets ace. He deserved to get the ball in the first game of the playoffs. He delivered not once, not twice, but in all three of his postseason starts. So why hand the ball to Matt Harvey now?
First, it was his turn in the rotation. Players are creatures of habit. This goes doubly so for starting pitchers. There’s no need to take the pitchers out of their routine right now, especially with a long layover after sweeping the Cubs.
Second, deGrom needs a little more rest. His velocity has dipped by about three MPH. He’s had less control going from 71.7% strikes to just 61.5% in the NLCS. In addition, deGrom could benefit from extra rest. During the regular season, he posted a 2.63 ERA with more than five days of rest. That’s worse than his four day rest (1.47 ERA) numbers, but it is better than his five days rest numbers (3.27 ERA).
Third, Harvey may have more availability:
TC to Matt Harvey on Game 1:
"You ready for it?"
Harvey: "Damn right"
And on working Game 7 in relief:
"I'll be ready."
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) October 24, 2015
We saw the advantage it was having Noah Syndergaard available in Game 5 of the NLDS. You want your best pitchers as much as possible. That should include Harvey pitching in Game 7. Note, I believe deGrom would go to the whip as well if the roles were reversed.
Fourth, Harvey is pitching a little better right now. In his last start, Harvey pitched 7.2 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 earned, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts. He was perfect through four. I’m not sure the Cubs even get a run in the game if not for a Juan Lagares misplay.
In his last start deGrom pitched well. He pitched 7.0 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 earned, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts. It’s picking nits, but deGrom wasn’t as good as Harvey. However, when you have three great starting pitchers, picking nits is all you have.
Fifth, through all of it Harvey might just be the better pitcher. It doesn’t change the fact that deGrom had a better year, but Harvey has better stuff. No, I don’t have something to link here. It’s just my belief. Harvey has pitched extremely well coming off of Tommy John surgery; the year in which pitchers struggle the most. Harvey has his same repertoire of pitches and added a curveball. He has more ways to get you out.
Overall, I’d go with Harvey. You can make an excellent case for deGrom as well. You can make a compelling case for Thor as well. In the end, that’s the best news. We’re arguing over three pitchers who would all arguably take the ball in Game One for the Royals.
Sometimes, minor discussions like this gives you the biggest hope the Mets will win this World Series.
My favorite Mets team was the 1999 team. I loved everything about that team from Bobby V to Mike Piazza to Edgardo Alfonzo to Robin Ventura to John Olerud. It was my first real taste of a pennant race and the playoffs. I was lucky to be there for Pratt’s All Folks and the Grand Slam Single. I look back on the year with melancoly because of this:
In 2000, the Mets got Mike Hampton. The season became World Series or bust. A strange feeling for a Mets fan. Hampton would deliver. He was the NLCS MVP. The Mets then had to face the Yankees in the World Series. It was a cruel series with Todd Zeile‘s ball landing on the wall and falling back into play. Timo Perez didn’t run and didn’t score. Roger Clemens threw a bat at Piazza and wasn’t ejected. The series then ended in the most heartbreaking way possible:
The Mets would be terrible for the next few years, but everything came together in 2006. Our homegrown stars, Jose Reyes and David Wright, we’re becoming superstars. They were joined by the two Carloses: Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado. It was a team that ran roughshod over the National League. Beltran was the best baseball player on the planet that year (who somehow didn’t win the MVP). The Mets had momentum in Game Seven with Endy Chavez’s catch. Here’s how that season ended:
In 2007, the Mets reloaded and were primed to go back to the World Series. They were up 7 with 17 to play. On the final game of the season, they sent future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine to the mound with his 300 wins. He wouldn’t be devastated when he got out of the first, but we would:
In 2008, the Mets diagnosed their problem, and much like 2000, they went out to get it. The Mets brought in Johan Santana, and he delivered. they needed him in a strange year that saw Wille Randolph fired after a win on the first game of a west coast trip. The interim manager threatened to cut Reyes if he didn’t come off the field after pulling up lame, and people acted like it was a good thing. Through all of that, the Mets were collapsing again, and yet an injured Santana took the ball on three days rest. He saved the season, but only for a day:
The last three were the most difficult for me because I was there. It got more difficult because Citi Field was initially a disappointment. It got worse because the product on the field was bad.
Then Matt Harvey came up and was an All Star. Jacob deGrom came from seemingly nowhere to become a Rookie of the Year and an All Star. They were joined by Noah Syndergaard. The Mets made a flurry of trades including one for Yoenis Cespedes. Daniel Murphy had an out of body experience. Then this happened:
All that pain. All that suffering. We know what it’s like to be Mets fans. There’s pain and suffering. However, there are moments of pure joy. It’s all the losing that makes nights like last night all the more special.
We’re Mets fans. We were there for all of this. There are older fans who experienced more pain, but also more joy. There are younger fans who only know losing. Now, we’re all Pennant Winners. It’s like the 80’s again when the Mets are the best team of baseball. We’re “Back in the New York groove!”
Nothing can make a team look bad like great pitching. Nothing can take a red hot team to their knees like great pitching. As anticipated, the Mets have had great pitching. Here’s how the Mets starters have performed:
Matt Harvey 7.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Noah Syndergaard 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Jacob deGrom 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
It’s the reason why the Cubs have been shut down thus far. This is the same Cubs team that scored 20 runs in a 3-1 win over the Cardinals in the Division Series. The Cubs entered the playoffs winning eight in a row before taking out the Pirates in the Wild Card Game.
The Cubs back are against the wall, and they get a slight break tonight with Steven Matz. We’re going to see what the Cubs are made of tonight. I expect them to bring their best.
I still expect the Mets to win.
Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:
April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0
- Juan Lagares CF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- John Mayberry, Jr. RF
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Dilson Herrera 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Matt Harvey P
July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Ruben Tejada SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Wilmer Flores 2B
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
- Juan Lagares CF
August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Michael Conforto LF
- Bartolo Colon P
September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
October 21, 2015 (estimated)
- Curtis Granderson RF
- David Wright 3B
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Steven Matz P
Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight.
I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series.
My favorite part of the postseason so far has been the Mets on the verge of going to the World Series. My favorite off the field part has been the David Wright–Jacob deGrom–Daniel Murphy postgame press conferences.
After Game One of the NLDS, we got “Yowsa!”
They were put together again last night and more hijinx ensued:
— SNY (@SNYtv) October 21, 2015
deGrom fixes murphys mic pic.twitter.com/o9PSS734hg
— jenny ? (@AHotMetss) October 21, 2015
#DavidWright says Daniel Murphy has been ridiculous. #MetsWIN #Mets #LGM pic.twitter.com/nIHYwMnPYd
— New York Mets (@Mets) October 21, 2015
Wright, deGrom and Murphy after the game https://t.co/6nE01Idlmo pic.twitter.com/UYQDV6umc2
— SNY (@SNYtv) October 21, 2015
There were more, but not all have been screen capped. I love seeing this team loose when they’re on the verge of the World Series. The pressures not getting to them and that’s why they’re winning.
I can’t wait to see another press conference with these three because it’s been fun. More importantly, it means something good has happened again.
Normally, if I said to you there was a run scored on an out, you’d assume a fielder’s choice or a sacrifice fly. You’d see the occasional suicide squeeze. In this strange postseason where you don’t have to touch a base to be safe and Daniel Murphy became Babe Ruth, the Mets scored the go-ahead run on a two out strikeout.
In the sixth, Yoenis Cespedes lead off with a single, and he moved to second on a Lucas Duda sac bunt. I thought he was going for a hit against the shift, but they awarded him with a sac bunt. Cespedes would steal third. Michael Conforto came up with two outs and would strike out:
.@ynscspds and @mconforto8 proved three strikes doesn't necessarily mean you're out: https://t.co/Jj12nYEGnV pic.twitter.com/9jj0tMhPzW
— Cut4 (@Cut4) October 21, 2015
Then the inning got strange. Wilmer Flores went the other way and hit a sinking line drive to right. It went under the glove of Jorge Soler. Conforto was already around third by the time the ball disappeared in the ivy.
The common joke all over the place was Bartolo Colon could’ve scored on the play if he hit it. However, because of ground rules written in 1912, it was ruled a groundrule double. No runs scored. Conforto to third and Flores to second. They would be stranded, but the Mets escaped with a 3-2 lead.
That lead would expand in the seventh. Cespedes knocked in David Wright, who had a great game, with a single off of Kyle Schwarber‘s glove. For the second time this series, Schwarber’s inexperience in the outfield cost the Cubs a run. Later in the inning, Murphy would score on a Duda groundout.
On the mound, Jacob deGrom finally had a good start in Wrigley Field. His final line was 7.0 innings, two earned, one walk, and seven strikeouts. Tyler Clippard held down the eighth, and well Jeurys Familia got the save again.
In other news, we care about from this game, Murphy did this in the third inning:
He’s now the Mets all time and single postseason homerun leader with six. He also tied a major league record by hitting a homerun in five straight postseason games.
Wright was terrific. He went 3-4 with two runs, a walk, and a double. Duda snapped out of his funk a bit by going 1-3 with an RBI and no strikeouts. There something else I’m forgetting.
Oh yeah, after the 5-2 win, the Mets are now one win away from the World Series. I can’t believe it. I can’t wait for tomorrow.
There may or may not be a good reason, but sometimes it doesn’t work for you in a particular place. I remember it was that way for Henrik Lundqvist in Montreal. He had not won there in over five years. Sure enough, he won the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals in Montreal en route to winning the series in six.
As a Mets/Rangers fan, I found this to be informative. It shows that no matter what happens in the regular season, the best players raise their games in the postseason. It doesn’t matter if it’s Nrw York, Montreal, or even Chicago. Yes, Chicago because it’s Jacob deGrom‘s Montreal.
In his two starts in Wrigley Field, he’s been terrible. He’s 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and a 1.700 WHIP. In his career, deGrom is 23-14 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.047 WHIP. deGrom has struck out 7.2 batters per nine in Wrigley as compared to his 9.5 career numbers. He’s allowed a triple slash line of .263/.383/.553 in Wrigley compared to his career numbers of .220/.269/.321. It’s the reason why his innings per start has dropped from his career average of 6.1 innings per start to 5.0 in Wrigley.
These are ugly numbers. They promise to get uglier with the current conditions in Wrigley. We know that when the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, it can get ugly for pitchers. So, how do you neutralize batters in conditions primed for hitters? Strikeouts.
This year deGrom has struck out 9.7 per nine. In Game One of the NLDS, he was pumped up, and he struck out 13. Overall, he averaging 13.8 strikeouts per nine this postseason. It’s a big reason he’s only allowed two earned runs in the deciding Game Five when he had nothing. When you can strike batters out, you can always get out of a tough inning. deGrom did that time and again in Game Five.
Overall, I’ve seen it happen. How a player performs doesn’t depend on the venue, it depends on the player. deGrom is special, and he will special again tonight. Wrigley will finally be friendly to him.
While Terry Collins has made some strange tactical decisions, he made one very good one. He has started Noah Syndergaard in Game Two of the NLDS and the NLCS. This means he has gone up against Zack Greinke, and he will go up against Jake Arrieta. Depending on your point of view, he will have gone up against the two best pitchers in the NL this year.
It also means the Mets have set themselves up nicely in a pivotal Game Three of a series. In the first round, Thor had actually outdueled Greinke, but for an egregious call. As a result of that call, the NLDS was tied 1-1 instead of 2-0. The Mets got a 2-1 lead in large part because of the big advantage the Mets had in the Matt Harvey–Brett Anderson matchup.
Regardless of what happens tonight, the Mets have a huge advantage in Game Three. The Mets will be throwing Jacob deGrom (14-8, 2.54 ERA) against Kyle Kendricks (8-7, 3.95 ERA). Now, anything can happen, but you have to like the Mets chances to go up 2-1 or 3-0.
The Mets are fortunate they have three great pitchers. Yes, Thor is their third best pitcher, but he’s almost as good. As he showed in the NLDS, he can matchup with the best pitchers in the game. Anytime he toes the rubber, you have to believe the Mets have a chance to win. The Mets will tonight. They will in Game Three too.
They have a chance to win the World Series.