Kelly Johnson
In order for the Mets to win tonight, Jacob deGrom needs to be great, and he will be. However, at some point, the Mets will need to get a big hit. Anyone is possible. Here’s why everyone on this roster is capable of it:
Yoenis Cespedes because he’s already homered off of Zack Greinke in this series
Michael Conforto because like Cespedes he has too.
David Wright because he already has a big hit in this series.
Curtis Granderson because he’s been the best Mets hitter in this series
Wilmer Flores because it’s an emotional game, and he’s at his best when he’s emotional
Lucas Duda because he’s due, he’s hit Greinke, and because he knows how to clinch things
Daniel Murphy because he’s clutch, and he knows how to give deGrom run support in this series
Travis d’Arnaud because he’s had one big game in this series and is due for another
Kirk Nieuwenhuis because he already has a huge pinch hit homerun in a big spot this year
Juan Lagares because he’s more than a glove, and he’s already hit a homerun in Dodger Stadium
Michael Cuddyer because he still has something up his sleeve
Kelly Johnson because we knew the Mets were onto bigger and better things when he homered in his first game as a Met (against the Dodgers)
Kevin Plawecki and/or Matt Reynolds because you never know who’s going to get the big hit
It’ll happen tonight. If you need more inspiration to believe it’s true just remember what happened 19 years ago today:
LETS GO METS!
If you’ve read this site before, you know I’m a big fan of Lucas Duda. So is my son. I’m rooting for him even if he’s having a rough NLDS.
He’s 2-15 with two walks and nine strikeouts. That’s a triple slash line of .133/.188/.133. That’s ugly. It’s hard to justify giving him playing time. With that said, he has to start in Game Five tomorrow. Now, unlike most, I’ll admit my bias here. I like Duda as a player. However, that’s not the only reason I want him to start tomorrow.
He’s had some success against Zack Greinke. He’s 3-12 with one homerun, one RBI, and two walks. It is a small sample size, and he went 0-3 against him in Game Two. With his cold streak, you could argue it’s time to play someone else.
If you sit Duda, then who do you play? One popular opinion floating around is moving Daniel Murphy to first and starting Kelly Johnson at second. That shouldn’t be an option with Johnson going 0-9 against Greinke. He’s also 0-3 with two strikeouts in his pinch hitting appearances this postseason.
The next option would be Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer has had some success against Greinke as well going 10-40 with a double and a homer. He’s also struck out 10 times against Greinke. Given the comparability of Duda’s and Cuddyer’s numbers against Greinke you could argue the Mets should start Cuddyer, which is something no Mets fan is lobbying for right now.
However, I believe you have to start Duda over Cuddyer. If you don’t, this leaves your right handed pinch hitting options to Kevin Plawecki, your backup catcher, and Juan Lagares, the Mets defensive replacement. The Dodgers will have three lefties in the pen assuming Clayton Kershaw isn’t available. I’d prefer Cuddyer pinch hitting in this spot over Lagares or Plawecki.
Lastly, Duda has been extremely streaky this year. He can flip the switch at any moment. He did go 0-4 last night, but he also gave one a ride last night. Hopefully, it was a sign he’s coming out of it. It’s reason enough to play him tomorrow. I like focusing on this reason other than the lack of better options.
So, I’m hoping the Mets play Duda, and he gives one a ride. He’s done it before against Greinke. He can do it again.
After Ruben Tejada‘s injury, the Mets had to replace him on the roster. We knew Wilmer Flores [standing ovation] was going to be the starting SS, but the Mets had to pick a backup. Even though Kelly Johnson played one game this year, he wasn’t going to fit the bill.
The Mets chose Matt Reynolds because he’s a SS. He’s the Mets 12th ranked prospect. He had a disappointing year in AAA. He dropped from a .335/.385/.479 hitter in AAA to a .267/.319/.402 hitter. Part of that may have to do with his mid-season elbow injury. His worst month was July when he went on the DL.
Overall, it doesn’t really matter how he hits. Flores was original at SS because of his bat. Reynolds just needs to be ready to be called upon. Most likely that means as a pinch runner (13/17 in SB attempts this year) or as a defensive replacement. He’s been improving defensively.
With all that said, he most likely will not play today or at any point in the playoffs. If he does get his chance, I would not discount him from doing something great.
This past week I’ve mainly focused on the big pitchers because that’s where I think the series will be won and lost.
While you can argue the best two pitchers in this series are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the Mets have historically performed slightly better than the rest of baseball against these two. I’m not sure that matters all that much because Kershaw and Greinke have pitched very well against the Mets.
On the flip side, Noah Syndergaard is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now. He’s been close to unhittable for a month now. Additionally, Jacob deGrom has had a terrific year, and he pitched well while amped up. Finally, the Mets have a big advantage in the Game 3 matchup between Matt Harvey and Brett Anderson. Overall, as you can see the Dodgers and Mets pitching is a wash:
Love the graphic in this story. Look at how even Mets and Dodgers pitching staff were in 2015 http://t.co/OQUfNM7Si0
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 8, 2015
The biggest advantage for the Mets is their bullpen. So far this year, the Mets bullpen has been better. Additionally, it is comprised of relievers who can go multiple innings, if necessary, to put the game away. Therefore, the Mets don’t need to out duel Greinke and Kershaw. Rather, they just need to do their thing out there and let it become a bullpen game.
No, I’m not counting on Kershaw performing as poorly as he had in past postseasons. I’m not expecting the Mets to completely neutralize Adrian Gonzalez. However, I am not discounting the Mets 4-3 record against the Dodgers.
I remember that the Mets won those games before David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud were healthy. I remember these games were before the Mets traded for Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson. I remember the Mets bullpen is even better with the additions of Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard. I remember the Mets have never lost a five game series or an NLDS game at home.
During the regular season, the Mets showed they could pitch with the Dodgers. They showed they had enough offense to beat the Dodgers. Then, they got better pitching and significantly better hitting.
I see the Mets earning a split in LA. I see Harvey winning Game 3. I see the Mets outlasting Kershaw who will be pitching on three days rest. I see the Mets bats taking advantage of the Dodgers bullpen.
Mets in four.
Yesterdsy, I looked at how the Mets fared against Clayton Kershaw. Game Two promises to have its own pitcher’s duel between Zack Greinke and Noah Syndergaard.
That means if the Mets want/need to win Game Two, they will need to get some runs off of Greinke or get into the Dodgers bullpen. With that said, here’s how the Mets have fared against Greinke:
Starting Lineup
Curtis Granderson 10-52 with 2 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, and 11 Ks
David Wright 3-9 with 1 double and 2 Ks
Daniel Murphy 4-13 with 2 BBs and 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 1-5 with 1 BB and 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-12 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BBs, and 4 Ks
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-2 with 1 RBI and 1 K
Ruben Tejada 0-6 with 1 K
Combined 21-99 (.212 BA) with 5 BBs (.274 OBP), 3 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HRs (.343 slugging), 5 RBIs, and 21 Ks
Bench
Kevin Plawecki 2-6 with 1 double and 1 K
Wilmer Flores 3-8 with 1 K
Kelly Johnson 0-9
Michael Cuddyer 10-40 with 1 double, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 2 BBs, 10 Ks
Juan Lagares 1-8 with 1 HR, 3 RBIs, and 1 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-5 with 1 K
Combined 17-76 (.224) with 2 BBs (.244 OBP), 2 doubles, 2 HRs (.329 slugging), 10 RBIs, and 14 Ks
Team Totals 38-175 (.217 BA) with 7 BBs (.241), 5 doubles, 2 triples, 4 HRS (.337 slugging), 15 RBIs, and 35 Ks
Obviously, the .215/.241/.337 line indicates the Mets don’t hit Greinke well, but then again who does? Greinke has limited batters to .187/.231/.276 this year. So, the Mets do hit Greinke than the league as a whole.
This goes especially for the top of the Mets lineup. Granderson, Wright, and Murphy have historically hit Greinke very well. If the Mets want to score runs, it’s going to have to start at the top.
As far as Syndergaard goes, he’s only faced the Dodgers once, and it was at Dodger Stadium. In that game, he pitched six innings allowing two hits, one earned, two walks, and six strikeouts. He got a no decision, but the Mets went on to a 2-1 win. That game was against Kershaw.
Thor is certainly capable of repeating that performance. In his last four starts, he’s had a 2.93 ERA, a 0.651 WHIP, and a 12.0 K/9. In this stretch, he’s limited opposing hitters to .163/.188/.337. He’s the key to everything. He’s primed for this playoff run.
It’s strange to say I’m confident the Mets can pull a game out against Greinke, but Thor gives me that confidence. I can’t wait for him to take the mound Saturday night.
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
The Mets have already begun the process of putting together the NLDS roster. The Mets are now starting to address Eric Young, Jr.:
Terry said Eric Young is "heavily" in the mix for a postseason spot, but pointed out it's much easier for AL teams to bring specific PR.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) September 30, 2015
Essentially, the Mets would like to add him and what he brings, but they are afraid to put him on the roster. The reason is right now he is viewed as a nothing more than a pinch runner. On an NL roster that is limiting with the need to pinch hit for a pitcher and/or double switch to help get multiple innings from a reliever. EY is no longer a good hitter (if he ever was one), but he can play the OF and 2B.
Before Juan Uribe‘s back injury, I assumed he would be on the roster leaving no room for EY. However, Uribe is hurt, so choices need to be made.
The first option is Kirk Nieuwenhuis. He doesn’t have EY’s speed, but he can run. He can play all three defensive outfield positions well, which is important with Yoenis Cespedes‘ recent injury. He has some if homeruns, but overall he has not hit well this year. The Dodgers lefty pitchers presents a problem for Nieuwenhuis, who is hitting lefties .000/.100/.000. That’s right. He has no hits against a lefty this year.
The next option option would be Eric Campbell. Campbell plays each infield position, which could be important with Wilmer Flores‘ recent back troubles. He can also play both corner OF spots, and he can be an emergency catcher. For all the versatility he has around the field defensively, he is very limited offensively. Campbell is hitting .210/.318/.302. There’s no way to spin this even with him hitting the ball hard.
So, if the Mets are looking for offense, they could look at Dilson Herrera. He’s still only 21 years old, but he shows a lot of promise at the plate. Unfortunately, his .218/.320/.379 triple slash line makes him a better offensive weapon than EY, Kirk, and Campbell. He hadn’t played much since his call-up, but he did have quite the game in Cincinnati last week going 3-4 with a walk, two runs, two RBIs, and a homerun.
The problem with Herrera is versatility. He’s only played 2B. If you’re on the bench, you may be needed to play somewhere other than where you’re most comfortable. However, that issue may be assuaged with Daniel Murphy‘s and Kelly Johnson‘s versatility.
I’m not sure which direction the Mets are going on now. Each choice has problems of its own. I don’t dven know which way I would go right now. What I do know is that this may be the biggest decision the Mets had since getting Cespedes.
I hope this choice will work out just as well.
After clinching the NL East, the Mets celebrated and partied. They deserved it. However, there are nine guys that are going to have to play today, including starter Jacob deGrom.
I remember when the Mets clinched in 2096, the next day’s lineup was a mess. It’s going to be worse with a day game. I’m assuming some players will be arriving at the ballpark straight from the club. With that in mind, here’s my guess on who’s in the starting lineup today:
- Eric Young, Jr. CF
- Ruben Tejada SS
- Michael Conforto LF
- Kelly Johnson 1B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis RF
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Dilson Herrera 2B
- Jacob deGrom P
The lineup may be different, and I could see some changes. This looks like a lineup from the aggravating first half. The difference is this time this lineup stays in Cincinnati as opposed to traveling with them.
It should be fun. Lets Go Mets!
Right now, there are 14 Mets players who look to have a strong claim to a playoff spot with two players on the cusp of cracking into that group. Of these 16 players, only seven players have postseason experience. Here’s how they’ve fared:
- Juan Uribe (44 games) .204/.241/.338, 5 HR, 24 RBI
- David Wright (10 games) .216/.310/.378, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Kelly Johnson (8 games) .143/.250/.429, 0 HR, 0 RBI
- Yoenis Cespedes (10 games) .340/.395/.525, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Michael Cuddyer (22 games) .338/.372/.473, 2 HR, 8 RBI
- Curtis Granderson (36 games) .229/.333/.458, 6 HR, 17 RBI
- Eric Young, Jr. (2 games) .000/.000/.000
Now, these are short sample sizes, but outside of Cespedes, they’re not promising. Outside of Cespedes, the only player that has had success consistently in the playoffs is Cuddyer, who is a part time player.
If these stats hold true, and I’m not sure we can expect that, this means one of two things: (1) Cespedes will have to carry the Mets offensively; and/or (2) the Mets will need players, who haven’t been to the playoffs before, to perform.
The Royals last year showed you didn’t need postseason experience. They took out Jon Lester, who’s a terrific postseason pitcher. They swept an experienced Angels team in the ALDS. They then beat an Orioles team in the ALCS who had recently been in the playoffs.
The Royals mainly lost the World Series because they were beaten by a great manager in Bruce Bochy and an all-time postseason pitcher in Madison Bumgarner. As always, it comes down to pitching, and right now, the Mets have that in spades. As long as they get enough offense and Terry Collins doesn’t implode, the Mets can have a run just like the Royals did.
It appears like this October will feature low scoring, tight games. I think the Mets will be ready for it. Lets Go Mets!