Zack Wheeler
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
Let me start off by saying, I’m not in favor of trading the Mets starting pitching. They’re still cheap, and they’re the main reason the Mets won the NL East and went to the World Series.
With that said, everyone wants at least one of the Mets young starters. It at least appears the Mets are shopping Zack Wheeler. There’s a lot of smoke surrounding the Mets moving Matt Harvey. It’s probably due to the double standards applied to him. It’s more likely that it involves him being arbitration eligible with the Mets having limited resources.
In any event, the Harvey rumors and trade suggestions are abound. At my cousin’s wedding on Saturday (congratulations Brian and Alison), my brother and I discussed the Mark Simon article regarding the proposed Harvey for Mookie Betts trade. My brother’s main objection to the idea of trading Harvey was his value will only increase next year. If we’ve seen anything with pitcher’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s they are better in Year 2.
My brother is right in principle. You want to trade players at their peak value. Right now, that pitcher is Jacob deGrom. For much of the season, he was a Cy Young candidate. He was the story at the All Star Game. He had a terrific postseason. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2018, and he can’t be a free agent until 2021. His value may be at its absolute peak.
He will also be 28 years old next year making him the oldest Mets starting pitcher, at least the oldest amongst those who the Mets have control over past 2016. In some ways, he emerged as the staff ace rendering him untradeable. In other ways, it makes it the right time to trade him.
You don’t trade someone like Harvey who is still building up his trade value. You trade the player who you believe is at peak value. Again, while I don’t advocate trading a starting pitcher, we should at least identify the one who will bring back the most value and be at the most risk for regression.
That player is deGrom.
Last summer, the Mets understandably almost traded Zack Wheeler. They thought they were getting Carlos Gomez, an All Star Gold Glove CF with another year of control. They were trying to make a playoff run by trading an injured pitcher. Ironically, the deal fell apart due to Gomez’s, not Wheeler’s, medical records.
Once the trade was undone, it seemed like the Mets were primed to create an even deeper super rotation. The only thing that stands in that way is the amount of holes this Mets team has coupled with the financial constraints. The Mets have roughly $18 million in the budget to get a second baseman and a shortstop. Depending on your point of view, the Mets also need a centerfielder and a reliever. Good luck filling all of those needs with that little money.
If you want to do it, you’re going to have to make a trade or two. With the Mets unloading their best trade chips, they’re going to have to trade from their major league talent pool to improve their roster. Everyone wants the Mets young pitching. Perhaps the best way to do that would be to trade Wheeler. He’s still highly regarded, but he also wasn’t there for the run to the World Series. Only the Mets say they’re not shopping him.
That’s what they say. In actuality, they are shopping Wheeler around to teams. Here was Assistant GM John Ricco’s quote about the prospect of trading Wheeler:
We’re not actively shopping Zack by any stretch. But as with the other starters, if something came up that we thought would make us better, we’re going to talk about it.
***
If there’s a deal that we think really makes us better, I can’t say we would [trade Wheeler again].
Here’s the thing about these quotes: there have been no Wheeler trade rumors. None! This is a salvo from the Mets to let people know they Wheeler is there for the taking . . . again.
It’s a smart move. He’s probably at his peak value. People remember his terrific stuff. They just saw the Mets young pitching go to the World Series. Wheeler was good enough to fetch an All Star CF with a reasonable contract last year, and that was when Wheeler was at least a year away.
Wheeler hasn’t had a set back during his rehab. He hasn’t come back and faltered. Neither of these may happen, but they are certainly possibilities. It’s also important to remember that Wheeler has a wealth of talent, but he has only been an average pitcher.
With that said, it’s a good time to shop Wheeler to see if you can get even more than the All Star CF they were set to obtain. This was the first time Wheeler’s name has been mentioned by anyone as a trade candidate. You’ll probably start to hear it a lot more. The Mets put his name out there to field offers.
They should start coming in. That’s what happens when you shop a player around. That’s what the Mets started doing by saying they’d consider trading him.
When discussing the 2016 Mets, I see many people referring to their Big 4. Now, I knew there was a Big 3, who were referred to as stud muffins by Tom Seaver. My question is who is the fourth member of this proverbial Big 4.
Let’s start with the obvious. It’s not Jon Niese. He’s the definition of an average pitcher. Also, even if he’s the fourth best pitcher, I’m assuming it’s not Jeurys Familia. I doubt a closer would be thrown in with a Big 4 starting pitching group.
No, the fourth member would be either Steven Matz or Zack Wheeler. I like both Matz and Wheeler, but they haven’t earned this distinction yet.
In his career, Wheeler is 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9. His ERA+ is 100, which means he’s just an average pitcher. That should be no surprise given his other statistics. While this is nothing to sneeze at, it does not merit putting him in the same conversation as Harvey, Thor, and deGrom. This is before taking his return from Tommy John into account. Wheeler is a tremendous talent, but he’s not a part of a Big 4 yet.
The more obvious choice for the Big 4 is Matz because he was in the postseason rotation. The only thing I can say about Matz right now is we had no idea what he is. He was incredible in his first two starts before being shut down with a lat injury. He was average when he came back only to hurt his back sleeping on the sofa. When he returned he was only good through five innings in the postseason.
This isn’t a knock on him. He sat for long stretches which would challenge anyone’s effectiveness. The overall point is we don’t know what he is yet. He could very well reach the level of the stud muffins. He could also be nothing more than an average pitcher.
Long story, short, there’s no Big 4. There could be one. There could be a Big 5. There’s a number of possibilities. However, right now it’s just a Big 3.
By any measure, Jon Niese was a disappointment in 2015. Maybe it was having a new child. Those sleepless nights wreck havoc in everything you do. It may explain Niese being more ornery than usual. In any event, Niese should be back as the team’s fifth starter to at least start the year.
For his career, Niese is 61-61 with a 3.91 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.361 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. Righties have hit .274/.332/.444. Lefties have hit .266/.328/.400. Anyway you slice or dice it, he’s a fifth starter. That’s fine. They will need a fifth starter until June or July when Zack Wheeler should be ready to come back.
That’s when Niese can move to the bullpen, which is a role he really excelled in during the postseason. He only got touched up in Game 2 of the World Series. He shouldn’t have pitched that night. Terry Collins unnecessarily used him for a second inning after pitching two innings the previous night. Even with that game, Niese had a 1.125 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9.
It’s a small sample size for sure, but he’s proven he can excel in the bullpen. Depending on the state of the Mets bullpen, he can become a LOOGY, 7th or 8th inning guy, or the long man. The possibilities are endless. It’s an incredible weapon to have in the bullpen in August and September when playoff spots are on the line.
Last year, Niese gave a glimpse into what he could be in 2016. He showed he will do what the team needs to win. I expect he will be even better in that role in 2016.
He will be an important player next year.
I’ll be completely honest with you. I’ve never understood the Mets fans love of Bartolo Colon. As a Met, he was 29-26 with a 4.13 ERA, and a 1.232 WHIP. His signature moments were he cartoonish at bats. There was a terrific defensive play, but where was the signature pitching performance?
The performances I remember are his two extra inning World Series performances. He got the loss in Game One. He allowed a big hit to put the clinching Game 5 out of reach. I really harbor no ill will towards Colon for these games. Personally, I think he was put in a position to fail both times. Additionally, to blame him is to fail to acknowledge what he was.
Colon is nothing more than a fifth starter, a durable one at that. He took the ball every fifth day. Sometimes he was effective, other times he wasn’t. However, his time has passed as it normally does for 42 year old players. It’s time for Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler.
He wants to pitch next year. He probably wants to catch and surpass Pedro Martinez fir most wins by a Dominican born pitcher. He’s just one away from tying. If he starts, he’ll have his best chance to do it. Also, he’s a starter, not a bullpen arm. There will be a team that wants him to start. Let him go there. He no longer has a place with the Mets.
He did a good job with the Mets. He’ll deserve the applause he will receive when he returns to Citi Field, although I suspect he will get much more than that. I may not understand all the fanfare he receives, but I do understand he did his job well with the Mets.
Good luck at your next stop Colon.
Terry Collins came into this season as a lame duck manager. That can be poison going into a year. A lot of that was alleviated by the Mets 11game winning streak in April. Then the injuries came.
On April 14th, David Wright went on the DL with a hamstring, but we would later learn it could be much worse. On April 19th, Travis d’Arnaud went to the DL with a right hand fracture. He would come off the DL on June 10th, and he would return to the DL on June 23rd. Jerry Blevins went on the DL with a broken forearm on the same day as d’Arnaud’s first DL stint. On June 5th, Daniel Murphy went on the DL with a left quad injury.
These injuries were on top of season ending injuries to Zack Wheeler and Josh Edgin. The Mets lost Jenrry Mejia first two injury on Opening Day and then to a steroids suspension. Rafael Montero was first an option in the bullpen and then the rotation. He went on the DL with a shoulder injury and would never pitch again. Dillon Gee was in and out of the rotation, and he went on the DL. Eventually, he went into the doghouse.
There was also the issues of ineffectiveness. Lucas Duda started out hot, and then got really, really cold. He had trouble carrying the offense. It’s no wonder his back went out. Kirk Nieuwenhuis was terrible, and he was traded to the Angels. When Nieuwenhuis flopped with the Angels, the Mets and their dreadful offense took him back. Of course, Michael Cuddyer had a typical first year with the Mets.
Through all of this, Collins kept it together. It was a miracle. The Mets should not have been in position to make trades. They were in a small part because the Nationals didn’t run away with it. A larger part was Collins holding it together. Then when he finally had a real MLB roster, his abilities as a tactician into question.
He started making questionable choices, and he cost his team some games. Then the season defining series against the Nationals. Collins said he was treating it like a playoff series. He made a number of moves. He was brilliant. However, it leaves me to question which is the true Terry Collins. Is he the man that is better at getting the most out of a team? Is he a guy that can jeopardize a game with questionable moves? Is he the guy that can pull it together to make all the right moves when a series is in the line?
Is he all these things? I don’t know. Part of the reason why is this is Collins first real pennant race as the team to beat. Another reason is he’s never had a team this good. Finally, he’s never been in the playoffs. He’s going to get his chance now.
It’s funny that with no new contract, this could be Collins first and last chance at a World Series. I hope he gets it. Not just because I’m a Mets fan, but because he’s a good man. He’s spent his life in baseball, and he has earned his chance.
I just hope when the time comes we see the Collins that managed against the Nationals.
NOTE: hat tip to @koosman2pointOh for his suggestion on this post.
The Mets have a terrific team doctor whom they trust. They allowed him to kill the very important Carlos Gomez deal that initially left them with egg all over their face.
It’s because of this that I don’t believe the Mets consult with their team physician when a player has complaints. Matt Harvey was the most important part of the otlrganization in 2013. They let him pitch through forearm tightness, and he would subsequently need Tommy John surgery.
Never ones to learn their lessons, the Mets permitted Zack Wheeler to pitch with ligament damage while Harvey was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He needed Tommy John surgery.
Now, after losing two major pitching prospects to injury two of the past three seasons, they repeated the same mistake with Steven Matz. After telling the team of pains in his side in his first major league start, Dan Warthen declared him fit to pitch after watching a bullpen session. Matz was shut down for three weeks and only recently began his rehab outing.
It’s an epidemic. You need look no further than Friday’s game. Bartolo Colon was not fit to pitch. His wrist was swelling up more and more. The Mets answer? Ray Ramirez sat there rubbing some ice on it and then sent Colon back out there. I guess we should be happy it wasn’t leeches.
You see that’s the problem. Injuries aren’t taken seriously. They’re not properly addressed. Players are not placed on the DL and their conditions get worse.
This became evident again with Lucas Duda‘s back. The Mets saw with David Wright the severity of back injuries and how long they take to heal. Similar to Harvey/Wheeler, the Mets showed an inability to learn their lesson.
Arguably, Duda is the Mets most important offensive player. You need to take care of him. Despite his back pain, they never bothered to send him for an MRI. That’s right they didn’t order a necessary test despite having gone through what they did with Wright. Only now are they conferring with Wright’s back specialist, Dr. Watkins.
For some reason the information isn’t going from the player to the right people. Maybe it is, and I dint know it. Maybe the Mets are ignoring the advice. Maybe they don’t know to to properly gauge when a doctor needs to be consulted. Whatever the case may be, there is something wrong here.
The Mets need to change something and fast. Not everything is a flesh wound. Sometimes an important player gets hurt and is out longer because of the team’s actions. It just happened again with Duda.
We all have those conversations that we just hate having. For some of us, it’s that conversation when it’s time to go on a diet. For others, it’s about the household budget. For all Mets fans, it’s about injuries.
They all start out seemingly innocuous and become something more. When it originally seems bad, we’re told it’s not and the player sits on the bench until they can hobble on the field for a PH appearance.
Prior to this year, it was the awful way, the Mets responded to Matt Harvey‘s and Zack Wheeler‘s arm complaints. It continued this year with Dan Warthen playing doctor with Steven Matz.
Also, this year we saw David Wright‘s hamstring injury become a spinal stenosis issue. Then the Mets refused to put Michael Cuddyer on the DL, severely limiting the team. Now, Lucas Duda has missed three straight games with an unknown back injury.
Yes, I know it says stuff back in the link, but that’s a symptom; not a diagnosis. For example, a throbbing leg is a symptom. When x-rays show a fracture that’s a diagnosis. Duda has missed three straight games. It’s time to get some tests.
Honestly, I can’t believe I’m saying this after David Wright. You’d think the Mets would be extra sensitive to back injuries. However, when looking at the facts, I’m naive. You’d think the Mets would’ve show extra precaution when a young starting pitcher has arm complaints after Harvey, yet they ignored Wheeler.
I’m not calling for Duda to be put in the DL yet. You need to know what the problem is before making that decision. However, I will note that when they finally put Cuddyer on the DL, he got better, and it looks like he’s playing better.
I’d rather see Duda get right than try to play through this and get more hurt. While we know rest may not be the best cure, he can do the exercises needed to get his back strong for the rest of the year. It’s not about RIGHT NOW; it’s about this season. You need healthy players for the stretch run. First base can be manned by Cuddyer and Daniel Murphy in the interim.
Please let the Mets learn from their mistakes and take care of Duda. They’ll need him.
The Mets have a real problem with their rotation right now . . . and I don’t just mean Bartolo Colon. No, I’m referring to the innings limit problem.
I was naively hoping the Mets were going to ignore the limitations while being smart about how they use their pitchers. For example, if any of the stud muffins are having a rough start, they would pull them a little early. If there is a large run differential, the pitcher could sit down earlier.
I was wrong. It appears the Mets still intend to manage the innings of the stud muffins by having spot starters during the rest of the season. In fact, Terry Collins stated the Mets will soon use a spot starter.
However, the Mets still ultimately want to go with a six man rotation. The most likely candidate is Steven Matz, who was reported to have begun throwing yesterday. If all goes according to plan, Matz will rejoin the rotation for the September stretch run. While we all enjoyed his first two starts, I’m not anxious for his return.
It is too late in the season to mess around with the pitching rotation, which has carried the team thus far. Furthermore, the statistics are not kind to six man rotations. In fact, pitchers’ ERA increases with the extra day of rest.
This begs the question: why would you mess with your biggest strength? We all know it’s pitching that will carry the Mets into the playoffs. The new offense is performing well, but it’s pitching that will help the Mets win now, and we know pitching wins in October.
I already know your answer: we want to protect the young arms. Mets fans have scars from Generation K. Younger fans may remember Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. I think everyone knows the story of Stephen Strasburg sitting out the 2012 postseason.
The end result? The Nationals lost in the NLDS to the eventual World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals three games to two. Strasburg’s replacement in the rotation was the immortal Edwin Jackson. Now Strasburg is injured again (not the elbow) and many question his mental makeup, fairly or unfairly. Thankfully, Terry Collins has assured us we will not see a repeat of the Strasburg incident as the stud muffins will pitch in the playoffs.
However, I’m still troubled by the innings limits. The main reason is because it is based upon the disproven “Verducci Effect.” I’m not willing to risk a whole season on faulty logic. Furthermore, I think the six man rotation overtures are disingenuous.
If the Mets were truly serious about the six man rotation, Dillon Gee would be in the rotation now. Over his last five starts, he’s 4-0 with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and two consecutive complete games. He’s doing this in an extreme hitter’s league. I know he was not good this year while he was being jerked around regarding his role with the team and the organization. However, I must ask, if the Mets are truly concerned with results, why is Colon in the rotation?
I’m not going to belabor the point, but he’s been awful this year. I’m not going to turn in the blinders because he had a good start against the worst offensive team in baseball, who is without Giancarlo Stanton. Overall, Colon has the fifth worst ERA in the NL. Even with a revived offense, is this the guy you want to run out there every fifth day? If you tell me you want to replace Colon with Matz, I’d say it would be a great move.
Furthermore, if you want to protect the arms, it’s simple. The Mets need to fire Dan Warthen. First, in 2013, Harvey was permitted to make multiple starts with forearm tightness. Harvey had Tommy John surgery. Second, Zack Wheeler pitched with ligament damage last season. Zack Wheeler had Tommy John surgery. Finally, Warthen, himself, declared Steven Matz fit to pitch. Matz then went on the DL.
If it’s not Warthen’s fault, fine. Who is it? The Mets need to root out the cause for the ignored aches and pains of their prime young pitchers. These problems became major injuries. If the Mets are really concerned with their young pitchers, they should start looking there instead of instituting another version of the six man rotation.