Jeurys Familia
Last year, the Mets were carried by their pitching. It helped them sustain an anemic offense until the Mets got healthy and made trades. It helped carry them to the World Series. It’s the promise for the future.
That future first comes into question around 2019. That is the year that Matt Harvey becomes a free agent. Zack Wheeler could become a free agent the same year or the subsequent year. Two years later Jacob deGrom becomes a free agent. After that, the Mets will have to address the free agent case of Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Naturally, this prompts the discussion of who the Mets should extend and when they should do it.
When these discussions take place, I find everyone to be extremely short-sided. Yes, it’s important to make a decision on the Mets starters, especially on Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard. However, I find that these discussions ignore Jeurys Familia. Like Harvey, Familia will be a free agent in 2019.
Familia was an exceedingly important part of the 2015 Mets. He was the stabilizing force at the back-end of a beleaguered bullpen. During 2015, Familia had the fifth most appearances. Of players who were strictly relievers, he had the third most innings pitched. He lead the league in games finished. He tied the Mets single season record for saves.
The advanced statistics also loved Familia’s 2015 season. He had an ERA+ of 200, which is astounding. It was the best amongst Mets pitchers. In fact, it’s a tick below Mariano Rivera‘s career 205 mark, which is the best in major league history. Familia’s FIP was 2.74, which, unsurprisingly, rates him as an excellent pitcher. Mariano’s career mark was 2.76. In essence, Familia’s 2015 was Riveraesque.
Keep in mind, Collins initially deployed Familia like Rivera. When it came time to close out the NLDS, Familia pitched two shutout innings. In the whole postseason, Familia had 12 appearances, and of those 12 appearances, he pitched more than one inning five times. He pitched 14.2 innings in those 12 appearances. Yes, he blew three saves in the World Series, but he only allowed one earned run the entire postseason. In reality, the blown saves were not on Familia but the Mets team as a whole.
Its important to lock-up some starting pitchers. If Harvey, deGrom, or Syndergaard leave, the Mets have other starters to keep having a strong rotation. If Familia were to leave, the Mets do not appear to have another reliever to take Familia’s spot. This makes extending Familia absolutely imperative.
So when it comes down to which Mets pitcher I would extend first, my answer is Jeurys Familia.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
Am I the only one that finds it incredibly fitting that Yoenis Cespedes is being introduced during a rainy day? Remember, it might’ve been a rainy day that brought him here in the first place.
Roughly half a year ago, there was some hope in the Mets season. The team had just acquired Tyler Clippard, Kelly Johnson, and Juan Uribe. Michael Conforto was up with the team and producing well ahead of schedule. Travis d’Arnaud was soon to return. While Mets fans had seen some bad baseball for far too long, things were seemingly getting much better. Then disaster struck.
There was the inexplicable drama surrounding the failed Carlos Gomez trade. Wilmer Flores was left standing on the field crying. Then we discover the trade didn’t happen. The Mets say Gomez failed a physical. The Brewers said the Mets wanted money in the deal. With all that hovering, the Mets took the field for a rainy day game. They had a 7-1 lead going into the seventh, and a 7-5 lead heading into the ninth. The Padres had two outs and Jeurys Familia had an 0-2 count on Derek Norris.
The heavens opened causing the umps to call a rain delay for a game that could’ve ended with one more pitch. The delay nearly lasted an hour. When they game resumed Familia allowed a single to Norris, another single to Matt Kemp, and then a three run homer to one-time trade target Justin Upton. After another rain delay of around two and a half hours, the game resumed seeing the Mets go down meekly 1-2-3 in the ninth. Whatever good feelings and momentum in the season was there, it was seemingly washed away. The fans were angry.
The rains eventually cleared. There would be a new day both literally and metaphorically when the Mets pulled the trigger on the trade for Yoenis Cespedes. Sure the Mets win the NL East without him, but man, the 2015 season had a different feel to it when he came on board. It was a fun run, and now he’s back. We’re ready for another ride.
But first, he’s going to be re-introduced to the fans on a rainy day. Seeing how it was a rainy day that brought him here, I wouldn’t have it any other way.
Welcome back Cespedes.
Last year, when the Mets had delusions of grandeur that the worst offense in Mets history could go to the World Series, the Mets traded for Tyler Clippard. In exchange for two months of Clippard, the Mets have up Casey Meisner, who was a well regarded prospect.
Initially, Clippard delivered for the Mets. Up until his back injury, Clippard pitched very well. From July 28th to September 16th, Clippard made 26 appearances pitching 26.1 innings. In those innings, he had a 2.73 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP limiting hitters to a .182/.257/.364 batting line. In short, he combined with Jeurys Familia to make it a seven inning game, which is all the more frightening for opponents when you consider the Mets pitching staff.
Apparently, despite the Mets adding a couple of relievers, they are still interested in Clippard, but only on a one year deal. I don’t get it. Yes, Clippard had the worst year of his career last year. However, in the midst of that year, the Mets traded away a promising young starter. Now, the Mets don’t have to give up any young players. Instead, they only have to give Clippard an extra year. They’re balking at that second year. It doesn’t make sense.
Keep in mind, the Mets just handed Antonio Bastardo a two year $12 million contract. Bastardo turns 31 in September. For his career, Bastardo has a 3.58 ERA, 109 ERA+, 1.198 WHIP, and an 11.0 K/9. Last year, Bastardo pitched 57.1 innings in 66 appearances. He had a 2.98 ERA, 129 ERA+, 1.134 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9.
Clippard turns 31 in two weeks. For his career, he has a 2.88 ERA, 138 ERA+, 1.089 WHIP, and a 9.8 K/9. Last year, Clippard pitched 71.0 innings in 69 appearances. He had a 2.92 ERA, 134 ERA+, 1.127 WHIP, and an 8.1 K/9.
Looking at the numbers, Clippard is a better reliever than Bastardo. Furthermore, Clippard established he could not only pitch well in New York, but he could also pitch well as the main set-up guy in a pennant race in New York. With that said, the Mets should offer Clippard the extra year, like they did with Bastardo, and get the deal done.
When gauging the free agent market, Sandy Alderson noted there aren’t many pitchers out there who aren’t much better than what they already have:
Alderson yesterday: "Does it really improve the team to give a reliever a 1-2 year deal if we don't believe he's better than what we have?"
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) January 8, 2016
There are dwindling options because the Mets didn’t act while there were high impact guys available. They waited and waited . . . . At that point, the only thing you can hope for is high upside relievers. That’s what “The Final Boss” was. He was a huge upside reliever. He dominated the Korean Leagues. We don’t know if he’s a closer, a high leverage reliever, or just an adept bullpen arm.
We do know he received a two year deal. He received a two year deal with an average annual value of around $3.7 million a year. That’s less than what the Mets are paying Jerry Blevins to be a LOOGY. What’s a better use of the money? A pitcher could be a dominant reliever or someone who can only get lefties out? I like Blevins, and the Mets do need a LOOGY. However, is that more valuable than a late inning reliever who could spell Jeurys Familia on occasion. Blevins isn’t going to take any innings away from Familia. He’s not going to allow the Mets to save Familia from being overworked.
However, that’s a false narrative. The Mets should be able to afford Blevins and The Final Boss. Sure, I think the bullpen is good as is, but the Mets didn’t at the beginning at the offseason. All of a sudden, it’s fine? Is this more of the Mets inability to spend? This isn’t alright. The Mets are just spinning.
Whether or not the Mets are going to add another reliever isn’t the issue. They’ve missed out on yet another reliever. They’ve missed out on yet another high upside player. However, this time the player signed a cheap short-term deal.
The Mets now aren’t even signing the players in their wheelhouse.
Supposedly, this documentary was directed at Mets fans. As such, I really wanted to like it. With that said, wow that completely missed the mark.
Yes, completely. I know it’s an hour show. However, it missed so many HUGE storylines. First, there was no real mention of Matt Harvey. Seriously? He was coming back from Tommy John surgery. It was the reason for the flip-flopping on the six man rotation all season. There was the Yankee game. There was the innings limit drama. There was the whole keeping him in too long in Game 5. Harvey was a huge, important, and at times, divisive figure. He barely received a blurb.
Speaking of pitching. This could’ve been the year Jacob deGrom became the staff ace. He was utterly dominant in the first half. He was the story of the All Star Game. He opened the postseason with a 13 strikeout performance. He somehow gutted out Game 5 of the NLDS, which is known as The Murphy Game.
Both pitchers got less coverage than Steven Matz‘s debut and his grandfather. It was a big moment in the season, but also lost there was the Mets mismanaging his injury in a season of the Mets mismanaging injuries. Heck, Matz got more coverage than any pitcher. That includes Noah Syndergaard, who was probably standing 60′ 6′ away. It also includes Jeurys Familia, who got thrust into the closer’s role due to two Jenrry Mejia PED suspensions. Familia was arguably the team MVP, but you wouldn’t know if from any of this.
Speaking of MVPs, if he wasn’t interviewed, I wouldn’t have known Curtis Granderson was even on the team. Granderson may have been the sole professional bat on an injury ridden deplorable offense. We heard about David Wright‘s back, but we didn’t hear about any of the other injuries (even in passing) that led to John Mayberry, Jr. and Eric Campbell hitting in the middle of the lineup. How do you miss this? Ask any Mets fan, and they will tell you that was a seminal moment in the season.
It was part of the whole Mets mockery of the fans with Panic City. It lead to an important Mike Vaccaro column about the Mets malpractice. This column really touched upon what it meant to be a Mets fan since the Madoff scandal. We were angry. Very angry. There was a campaign to buy a billboard did the Wilpons to sell the team. That side of the story wasn’t voiced, not even with Joe & Evan.
Instead, we got The 7 Line Army story. I mean no disrespect to Darren Meenan and what he’s created, but why was The 7 Lime Army featured more than anything else? The 7 Line Army got more coverage than Yoenis Cespedes being the hottest hitter anyone has ever seen. Seriously, when Cespedes hit the NLDS homer, we saw The 7 Line Army celebrating instead of an epic bat flip. Interview Darren Meenan? Absolutely. He’s a fan, and he’s made a successful business out of his fandom. However, I’m sorry. The 7 Line Army was not the defining story of the 2015 season. Yet, it got a lot of coverage. Maybe the most coverage.
With that, a lot was missed. Think about it. There were many key games this past season. If you take longer than a nanosecond to pinpoint the Padres game as the nadir, you’re a casual fan. If you don’t know the game to which I’m referring, you’re not a Mets fan. That game set the stage for the exhilaration fans felt after the Cespedes’ trade. No matter your feelings about the trade, you were excited to se degree that the Mets were remade and going for it.
That trade flipped the script on the season for the fans . . . perhaps for the team as well. The Mets went from an under-.500 team falling apart at the seams to real contenders. They went from a laughingstock with the Carlos Gomez trade debacle to a force to be reckoned. The documentary took the incredible, real-life drama that unfolded and omitted it. You could do a mini-series on July 30th and July 31st. Instead, we get a snarky Tom Verducci comment about Mets fans not being happy. I would say the quote was taken out of context, but really, how could it be? Until that trade, the Mets had cheap owners and an under-.500 ball club. Any fan had a right to be angry.
That’s the thing overall. You simply cannot discuss the fans without capturing their anger. It’s an example of how passionate Mets fans are. We’re not the hapless bunch we were presented as to the world. We are fans that have lived through nightmares. There was the worst team ever assembled. The Midnight Massacre. There were the misses in the 80’s. The Worst Team Money Can Buy. Kenny Rogers walked in the series winning run. Mike Piazza‘s ball died on the warning track. Carlos Beltran struck out looking followed by two collapses. All hope was then seemingly lost with the Madoff scandal.
However, Mets fans have seen enough magic to believe in anything. The Miracle Mets. Ya Gotta Believe! A little roller up the first base line. The Grand Slam Single. Overall, Mets fans don’t expect the worst. We’re not Cubs fans or pre-2004 Red Sox fans. No, we believe anything can and will happen. It’s a feeling that was awoken with Harvey’s right arm. It’s a feeling that’s not going away.
So no, Tears of Joy didn’t tell the world about Mets fans. It missed the mark despite excellent work by Anthony DiComo, Jared Diamond, and Jim Breuer.
Also, it didn’t tell me about the team or the season. From my understanding of Tears of Joy, Daniel Murphy had a hot streak before losing the World Series with an error. All 27 homerun Lucas Duda did was make a poor throw home. I could go on and on ad nauseum, but you get it. You watched the season. You know just as well as I do that Tears of Joy didn’t do a good job describing the ups and [mostly] downs of the season.
No, overall it mostly failed to capture the season or the fans. It’s disappointing really, just as the end of the 2015 season was. I guess there it at least hit the right tone.
Like everyone else, I’ve gone on and on about Ben Zobrist, Daniel Murphy, and the whole second base situation. Now, Zobrist seems to be close to making a decision, and many have speculated he may just become a Met. Honestly, why would he do that?
First and foremost, the obvious reason is the Mets may be offering the most money, which frankly, is a rarity in these situations. Other than that, I can only think of five other reasons Zobrist would want to be a Met:
Sure, the Mets are an NL East team closer to Zobrist’s Tennessee home than an NL West team, and they intend to put him at second where he prefers. The Mets did win the pennant establishing they are ready to win now. There are other nice pieces on the team, but they carry question marks: Curtis Granderson (age), David Wright (back), Travis d’Arnaud (injury history), and Juan Lagares (right handed pitching).
Zobrist would be joining a team losing its #3 and #4 hitters and replacing them both with just him. The Mets also have a bottom third payroll with apparently not much room to increase it despite the additional playoff revenue. Sure, every team has problems, but the other two teams interested in Zobrist will go out and spend. The other options may be more attractive than the Mets.
Washington Nationals
Keep in mind, the Nationals remain a dangerous team. They still have Max Scherzer (who no-hit the Mets) and Stephen Strasburg headlining the rotation. Bryce Harper took his game to the next level and won the MVP award. Anthony Rendon is a very good young player, who may very well be a Top 5 Third Baseman. There are exciting young players like Michael Taylor and Trea Turner.
The Nationals also had the third highest payroll in the sport last year (no one was going higher than the Dodgers and Yankees). They already addressed their biggest problem from last year by firing Matt Williams and hiring Dusty Baker. Dusty has his flaws, but he always seems to get the most out of his players. Lastly, the Nationals have already stated they want Zobrist to play second base.
Overall, the Nationals are still poised to win a lot of games next year, have a lot of terrific pieces, and have the ability to spend the money necessary to be a contender to win the World Series.
San Fransicso Giants
Speaking of contenders to win the World Series, next year is an even numbered year, which means the Giants are due to win the World Series. The Giants were the other team that no-hit the Mets this year.
Overall, there is a lot to like with the Giants. Madison Bumgarner is the best money pitcher in the sport. Buster Posey might just be the best position player in the NL (if it’s not Harper). Bruce Bochy is the best manager in all of baseball as well. There’s also the matter of the Giants hitting coach, who has been doing wonders with some of their younger players.
Gold Glover Brandon Crawford has increasingly hit for more power. Joe Panik has become an underestimated high OBP second baseman (sound familiar?). Matt Duffy showed increased power while finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Seriously, so what if the Giants want Zobrist to play LF? This is a team built to contend for the long and short team. They also have the sixth highest payroll in baseball. This team has an eye for young talent and is willing to spend to either keep their players or bring in new ones to fill their holes. The Giants have truly created a wonderful organization.
The Decision
If you’re being honest with yourself, and the money is even, why would you pick the Mets? They don’t have the wherewithal to spend the other teams do. The other teams have been addressing needs this offseason, while the Mets have yet to bring someone in to improve their team. It’s still debatable if the Mets have enough money to make another significant move if Zobrist becomes a Met.
If it was me, I’d always pick the Mets because I’m a die hard fan. However, if we’re looking at these teams on paper, I’m not sure the Mets are the most attractive option for any free agent. You have to know that going to the Mets may mean you’re going to be the only major league signing. That’s been pretty much true of ever offseason for the Sandy Alderson regime.
Given the fact that Zobrist wants to win, play second, and stay closer to home, why shouldn’t he pick the Nationals? They have pitching and an arguably better lineup then the Mets. They also have the ability to spend more money than the Mets.
While I would always choose to be a Met, if I’m being honest, a sure with no such loyalty could/should choose differently.
There’s always a surprise or two amongst the players who were non-tendered regardless of whether or not the move made sense. It might’ve been surprising to see Greg Holland‘s name out there, but the move made sense.
Holland was slated to possibly receive $11.3 million in arbitration. You can’t pay that to someone who is going to miss all next year due to Tommy John surgery. You can’t pay him that when it’s his last year of team control before he becomes a free agent. The Royals tried to do the prudent thing in offering Holland a two year deal. However, the Royals were rebuffed leading to the non-tender.
The reason the Royals were rebuffed probably had a lot to do with the fact that Scott Boras is his agent. Boras probably wants to shop Holland around looking for the best offer. He should with 145 saves over the past four years. In 2013 and 2014, when he was the full time closer and healthy, he averaged 47 saves with a 1.32 ERA.
When healthy, he’s an elite shutdown closer in the ilk of any closer you want to mention. It’s the reason you would be willing to give him a two year deal. You want to get him on the cheap. He’d be a dream to pair with Jeurys Familia. If he returns to form in 2017, you have a reliever you could extend a Qualifying Offer thereby recouping a possible draft pick.
If I’m the Mets my selling point is how well things went with Matt Harvey (not sarcasm). However, I think Holland is going to go to the team that’ll offer him the most money, which he should. It’s at that point the Mets probably fall out of contention.
It’s a shame too because having that kind of bullpen in place would be another step in making a one year World Series run into a three year period of playoff runs.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.