Addison Reed
It all came down to the seventh inning. Terry Collins pushed Noah Syndergaard a little too far. Thor left the game after 6.1 innings with runners on first and third.
Puzzlingly, Collins would bring on Bartolo Colon. Colon induced a ground ball, and Daniel Murphy made a nice play. He flipped the ball to Ruben Tejada, and I’m not sure what happened next:
Chase Utey epitomizes what it means to be a scumbag pic.twitter.com/V2UwSjUzah
— Mets Citi (@metsciti) October 11, 2015
You see, the umps ruled Chase Utley safe. No, seriously. They called him safe. You see Tejada missed the bag. It doesn’t matter that Utley didn’t touch the bag. It doesn’t matter he didn’t begin his slide until after the out call was made. MLB will pick and choose which rules they will enforce:
https://twitter.com/chisportsfan03/status/653057143520686080
@AndyGlockner @jareddiamond even more so the explanation why… pic.twitter.com/kGMuZyoVvo
— John Willey (@jdubs44) October 11, 2015
Here’s another angle:
https://twitter.com/athwayoflife/status/653063091614183424
That’s right, if the rule was properly enforced, it’s an inning ending double play. Instead, Utley is ruled safe, and Tejada is done with a broken right fibula.
Speaking of a double play, the umpires ruled that it was not a neighborhood play because Murphy’s throw pulled Tejada off the bag. No, seriously. The fact that Tejada thought he touched second and began to spin to throw to first wasn’t indicative that there was a double play chance.
Yes, I know the Mets bullpen, lead by Addison Reed imploded. The bullpen was handed a 2-1 lead courtesy of Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto homeruns. The game ended there. It became a 5-2 loss.
The Mets bullpen failed. The umpires failed. Replay failed. MLB failed.
This past week I’ve mainly focused on the big pitchers because that’s where I think the series will be won and lost.
While you can argue the best two pitchers in this series are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the Mets have historically performed slightly better than the rest of baseball against these two. I’m not sure that matters all that much because Kershaw and Greinke have pitched very well against the Mets.
On the flip side, Noah Syndergaard is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now. He’s been close to unhittable for a month now. Additionally, Jacob deGrom has had a terrific year, and he pitched well while amped up. Finally, the Mets have a big advantage in the Game 3 matchup between Matt Harvey and Brett Anderson. Overall, as you can see the Dodgers and Mets pitching is a wash:
Love the graphic in this story. Look at how even Mets and Dodgers pitching staff were in 2015 http://t.co/OQUfNM7Si0
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 8, 2015
The biggest advantage for the Mets is their bullpen. So far this year, the Mets bullpen has been better. Additionally, it is comprised of relievers who can go multiple innings, if necessary, to put the game away. Therefore, the Mets don’t need to out duel Greinke and Kershaw. Rather, they just need to do their thing out there and let it become a bullpen game.
No, I’m not counting on Kershaw performing as poorly as he had in past postseasons. I’m not expecting the Mets to completely neutralize Adrian Gonzalez. However, I am not discounting the Mets 4-3 record against the Dodgers.
I remember that the Mets won those games before David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud were healthy. I remember these games were before the Mets traded for Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson. I remember the Mets bullpen is even better with the additions of Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard. I remember the Mets have never lost a five game series or an NLDS game at home.
During the regular season, the Mets showed they could pitch with the Dodgers. They showed they had enough offense to beat the Dodgers. Then, they got better pitching and significantly better hitting.
I see the Mets earning a split in LA. I see Harvey winning Game 3. I see the Mets outlasting Kershaw who will be pitching on three days rest. I see the Mets bats taking advantage of the Dodgers bullpen.
Mets in four.
Everyone is expecting great starting pitching in the NLDS. As seen earlier today, Jacob deGrom is as good against the Dodgers as Clayton Kershaw has been against the Mets. Potentially, this means the starting pitching will cancel each other out creating a battle of the bullpens.
Working backwards (using ESPN’s depth chart) the Mets and Dodgers each have terrific closers:
Jeurys Familia 2-2, 43 saves, 1.85 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 (.207/.261/.309)
Kenley Jansen 2-1, 36 saves, 2.41 ERA, 0.783 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 (.176/.215/.298)
However, after that, the Mets have the better set-up men (note these numbers are the numbers with the team only):
Addison Reed 1-1, 1 save, 1.17 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 (.200/.267/.273)
Tyler Clippard 4-1, 2 saves, 3.06 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 (.200/.287/.336)
Jim Johnson 0-3, 1 save, 10.13 ERA, 2.036 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 (.381/.422/.524)
Carlos Frias 5-5, 4.06 ERA, 1.468 WHIP, 5.0 K/9 (.297/.356/.405)
This is a major advantage. If the Mets can stop the game from getting from the starter to Jansen, they can put runs on the board. However, according to Baseball Reference, the Dodgers have reshuffled their bullpen:
Juan Nicasio 1-3, 1 save, 3.86 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 (.263/.358/.384)
Yimi Garcia 3-5, 1 save, 3.34 ERA, 0.953 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 (.209/.249/.346)
Pedro Baez 4-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 (.247/.288/.405)
These are much better, but hittable right handed pitchers. The Dodgers only have one left handed reliever right now, J.P. Howell, which means Terry Collins will get to pick and choose his spots with Michael Conforto, Kelly Johnson, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. The Mets have a major matchup advantages in the late innings.
The bullpen disparity and Mets roster construction is the biggest reason I believe the Mets can and will win this series.
Update: Johnson is not on the roster.
Reliever Jim Johnson won't be on roster. Has been sent home "out of respect." "Didn't see him as next man up" so not sent to complex in AZ
— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) October 7, 2015
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
The Mets have lost. Homefield advantage is not important. In fact, the Mets may be better off without it. These last three games are about getting ready for the playoffs.
When you look at today’s game through that prism. Today was a good day. Noah Syndergaard was dominant going seven innings allowing two hits, one earned, one walk, and 10 strikeouts. He looked ready to start Game Two of the NLDS no matter where it will be played.
Also important was no one got hurt or tweaked a bat. Yoenis Cespedes played. It’s too early to judge if there will be lingering effects from the bruises, but he did look alright out there.
Jon Niese came out of the bullpen and pitched himself in and out of trouble. In many ways that’s very encouraging because part of pitching out of the bullpen is getting out of trouble. Even better, Niese did not have a meltdown when he got in trouble.
So yes, I’m downplaying Daniel Murphy not turning a double play. I’m not giving much attention to Addison Reed giving up a go-ahead two run homerun to Bryce Harper. It was the first runs he’s allowed as a Met. It was a meaningless 3-1 loss. I’m focusing on the positive because the first time in nine years there’s something positive.
I’m more excited because Thor was dominant, and that’s what the Mets will need in the playoffs. I hope you are too.
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
Look, this is Sandy Alderson’s team. He decided to keep the players he kept and trade the players he traded. He pulled off the trades and signed the free agents. However, he was able to do a lot of what he did because he was left with good players after Omar Minaya was terminated.
Here are the players in the 40 man roster who have a link to Omar Minaya (asterisked players are players obtained with players combined by Minaya and Alderson):
Jerry Blevins – obtained for 2010 draft pick Matt den Dekker.
Eric Campbell – 2008 draft pick.
Darrell Ceciliani – 2009 draft pick.
Travis d’Arnaud – part of the R.A. Dickey trade. Dickey was a free agent signing. Josh Thole was a 2005 draft pick. Mike Nickeas was initially obtained by trade in 2006.
Jacob deGrom – 2010 draft pick.
Lucas Duda – 2007 draft pick.
Jeurys Familia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Wilmer Flores – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Erik Goeddel – 2010 draft pick.
Matt Harvey – 2010 draft pick
Dilson Herrera* – part of Marlon Byrd/John Buck trade. Buck was part of the Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Juan Lagares – 2006 amateur free agent signing.
Steven Matz – 2009 draft pick.
Jenrry Mejia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Akeel Morris -2010 draft pick.
Daniel Murphy – 2006 draft pick.
Bobby Parnell – 2005 draft pick.
Addison Reed* – obtained in exchange for Matt Koch and Miller Diaz (signed by Mets in 2009).
Hansel Robles – 2008 amateur free agent.
Noah Syndergaard – part of Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Ruben Tejada – 2006 amateur free agent.
Again, these players are in the roster because Alderson kept them. The decision of who to keep and trade is important. That is what makes them Alderson’s players and team. Additionally, while It was Alderson that hired Terry Collins, it was Minaya who brought him into the Mets organization.
However, it is important to truly acknowledge Minaya’s role, especially when he has been unfairlyand wrongly marginalized.
You see I was on the same Jet Blue flight as Omar Minaya. The photo with this post was Minaya and me in the terminal before the flight. He was accessible to Mets fans who wanted to shake his hand and take a picture. No one, and I mean no one, had the “courage” to mock him on the flight.
Additionally, this should dispel the notion that Minaya left the Mets with a depleted farm system. On the contrary, he built a strong farm system that helped make up this team. Minaya had his faults, and he probably deserved to be fired when he was. That doesn’t mean we should ignore his work.
It doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t extend our gratitude to him for what he left behind.
I thought I knew Jon Niese. I thought he was the guy who was weak mentally and made excuses for his poor outings. After the Mets clinched, we found out he’s a guy that will do whatever he can to win:
Jon Niese approached Terry Collins about pitching out of the bullpen — not the other way around. He'll start doing so this week. #Mets
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 27, 2015
Niese has been a starter for his entire career. He made his one and only relief appearance in 2011. This is no small gesture on his part even if he knows it’s his only chance to be on the playoff roster. If he does make the roster, what will his bullpen role be?
Well, for starters, we know, he won’t be a set up guy for Jeurys Familia. Those roles are firmly in the hands of Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard (back willing). If either of them faulter, the Mets could go with multiple inning appearances from Familia or go to Hansel Robles. That means the bullpen spots remaining are long man and LOOGY.
I’m not sure he qualifies as a LOOGY. For his career, lefties hit .262/.314/.397 off of him. This year lefties are hitting .285/.325/.431 off of him. By comparison, lefties are hitting .169/.217/.351 off of Robles. I’m not sure if Terry Collins would be willing to use Robles as a LOOGY in the playoffs.
He may feel inclined to use the only effective lefty reliever he has: Sean Gilmartin. He’s been better than Niese against lefties, but not by much. Lefties hit .264/.316/.341 off of him. It’s probably one of the reasons he became the long man. Gilmartin and Niese will face some competition for that role against Bartolo Colon.
Unlike Colon, Niese is moving to the bullpen now. It’s possible with him being able to max out for one inning, he will be much better against lefties. He may be better against righties for that matter. Niese has occasionally liked to drop his arm angle. If some effectively, he could be another Pedro Feliciano. If not, at least he tried.
Honestly, I hope he makes it. Of all the pitchers on the Mets staff, he’s been here the longest. I’m glad he’s getting his chance. I hope he makes the most of it.
Now that the Mets have clinched the NL East, the time is fast approaching to set the NLDS roster. Keep in mind, this is for the NLDS only. The Mets can the roster if they advance to the NLCS.
I’ve made some changes to my prior analysis. The reason is due to injuries to players like Juan Uribe. Another reason was the possibility that Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon may move to the bullpen.
Note, this is not what I would do, but rather, what I think the Mets will do. I am taking into consideration the Dodgers lefty heavy starting rotation and lineup. Without further ado, here’s my best guess:
Catchers
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
Outfielders
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Rotation
15. Matt Harvey
16. Jacob deGrom
17. Noah Syndergaard
18. Steven Matz
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Tyler Clippard
21. Addison Reed
22. Hansel Robles
23. Sean Gilmartin
24. Jon Niese
25. Bartolo Colon
I’m not 100% confident in this. I could see Uribe getting healthy enough to play knocking EY, Lagares, or Johnson out of the lineup. With all the lefties, I could see Eric Campbell or Dilson Herrera (3-4 with a walk, a homer, two runs, and a two RBIs on Sunday) making the team as well.
I also think there is real competition and consideration for the last three bullpen spots. Erik Goeddel has been great all year (when healthy). Carlos Torres is a Terry Collins’ favorite, who may make the team if healthy. Logan Verrett has made his car all year bouncing between starting and reliever. If Colon takes Matz’s spot in the rotation, there will be more bullpen spots because the Mets won’t put Matz in the bullpen.
No matter who is on the roster I’m excited for the playoffs again. Lets Go Mets!
The most important part of today’s game was Steven Matz‘s start because you want to determine if he should start in the NLDS.
Tonight, there was some good and some bad. Matz struck out a career high eight batters and looked strong early. However, he couldn’t hold onto a 3-1 lead. He only lasted 5.2 innings. He left the game with the game tied at 3-3.
Offensively, it seems the Mets bats woke up. It could’ve been just clearing their heads. It could’ve been seeing the Nationals losing as they took the field. It could’ve been the difference between Citi Field and The Great American Ballpark. Whatever it was, the Mets put six runs on the board.
Most impressively, the team responded to losing the lead by scoring three in the seventh. It started with Curtis Granderson scoring on a Daniel Murphy triple. This was followed by a Yoenis Cespedes RBI single, and a Lucas Duda RBI double, off a lefty to boot.
Itwas an impressive night for Murphy, Cespedes, and Duda. Murphy went 3-5, with a double, a triple, two runs scored, and the game winning RBI. Cespedes was 2-4 with a run and two RBI. Duda was 2-3 with 2 doubles, a walk, and two RBI.
The bullpen was solid with Erik Goeddel getting the win. Terry Collins smartly used Addison Reed in the seventh with the top of the Reds lineup due up. Hansel Robles allowed a homerun (more on that later). Jeurys Familia rebounded from last night to record his 42nd save preserving the Mets 6-4 win.
Getting back to Robles, there was an incident prior to the Jay Bruce homerun. During the at bat, Robles of course tried to quick pitch him since the bases were empty. The home plate umpire appeared to yell at him prompting Collins to come out of the dugout. Of course, Angel Hernandez tried to intervene from first base even though the home plate umpire and crew chief was there.
After everything, Robles allows the home run. With Robles’ quick pitch tendencies, this issue will arise again in the playoffs. If Robles wants to continue to quick pitch, he’s going to need to respond better.
On the bright side, this is going to be an issue because the Mets are going to go to the playoffs.