The facts are the facts. Eric Campbell is just not a very good Major League Baseball player. With that said, I’m alright with the Mets keeping him on the 40 man roster.
Over the past two seasons, the 28 year old Campbell has played 156 games. In those games, he has played every defensive position except centerfield and catcher, and he’s trying to become an emergency catcher. For a part time basis, he’s passable to barely passable at each of these positions. While he’s not great at any position, you can put him in for one game and feel like he’s not going to cost you a game.
Offensively, he’s hit .231/.317/.328. Not that good. His OPS+ is 84, which means he’s not a league average hitter. Looking at his wRC+, he’s at 88, which again means he’s below average. Add all this up, and he’s got a -0.1 career WAR again meaning he’s a below average player. Now that I’m done confirming everything you know about him to be true, here’s some additional information you may not have considered.
Campbell is actually a good pinch hitter. For his career, Campbell has had 54 plate appearances hitting .293/.426/.390. Remember that earlier this year, he had a key go-ahead pinch hit that helped the Mets win a game. He hits the ball hard (statistically speaking). He ran into some bad luck last year with a BABIP of .230, which suggests he hit into a lot of hard luck last year. If those base hits start falling in, his 2015 season looks much better. With BABIP typical being .300, you can expect that better outcome next year.
With all that said, Campbell was left off the roster for both Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. With the Mets, Johnson hit .250/.304/.414. His OPS+ was 99. His WAR was 0.3. His wRC+ was an 87. As a pinch hitter, he’s hit .209/.341/.309. This makes him a very average baseball player.
On the other hand, Juan Uribe hit .219/.301/.430 for the Mets. His OPS+ was 102. His wRC+ was a mere 104. His WAR was 108. However, unlike Johnson and Campbell, he really only plays third now. He did begrudgingly play some second, and he was uncomfortable playing first.
Campbell will most likely be paid something in the vicinity of $500,000 to $600,000. Johnson was just paid $1.5 million next year. I’m presuming Uribevwould fetch around the same amount now. For a bench player who is expected to pinch hit and be versatile, is Johnson really that much better than Campbell? Would you want a bench player who has little to no versatility like Uribe? Are Johnson and Uribe a million dollars or more better than Campbell? I’d argue no.
Even if you believe they are, that’s a reason you sign them to be a utility players on the major league 25 man roster. Campbell is going to be on the 40 man roster being stashed away in the minors in case of an injury. Overall, despite fans ire, Campbell has real value to this Mets team, and he has earned his spot on the 40 man roster.
Does that mean you put yourselves in a position to lose a potential star in the Rule 5 draft to keep Campbell? Of course not. A million times no. However, before getting upset about Campbell consider the following:
- The Mets still have one extra spot on the 40 man roster;
- Ruben Tejada is rumored to be a non-tendered candidate, but the Mets will keep him waste a spot on the 40 man roster; and
- There are other players like Darrell Ceciliani who are much worse than Campbell taking up roster spots.
So, yes, Campbell is a flawed player. That’s why he’s a minor league depth player. It’s why he’s a bench player at best. However, he’s not the worst player on the 40 man roster, and he’s not the reason that the Mets may lose Wuilmer Becerra and Matt Bowman in the Rule 5 draft.
The reason is because the Mets chose to gamble by exposing them or by keeping worse players like Ceciliani on the roster. Campbell has earned his spot on this roster and may yet help the Mets in 2016.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
The first ever draft pick by the Samdy Alderson regime with the Mets was Brandon Nimmo. Today, he should be added to the 40 man roster, and he looks like he will begin the year in AAA.
When the Mets drafted him, they were just drafting on potential. Sure, you could make that argument with any first round pick, but it really applied to Nimmo. He played in Wyoming, a state that produces very few major league players. He showed glimpses of being a give tool player, but in a state like Wyoming, who really knows?
The Mets knew he was a long term project. That’s fine. You draft the best talent. He’s definitely talented. He’s a Top 100 MLB prospect and the Mets number two overall prospect (behind Steven Matz). He’s shown he can handle centerfield everyday. He’s got good speed and a good arm. While he may not have 20 home run power, he’s got a good eye and he’s a contact hitter. In his minor league career, he’s hit .263/.383/.391. After his call-up to AAA last year, he hit .264/.393/418 in 32 games.
It’s possible he gets called up in 2016. It’s even more possible he gets called-up in 2017. Fact is, the sooner he’s ready the better. Right now, the Mets seem to want a platoon bat in CF for Juan Lagares. They deem this such a need they’re talking with players who can’t play the position. Personally, I’d let Kirk Nieuwenhuis be the platoon option until Nimmo is ready. It’s not like Kirk is any worse than the other options. I believe everyone in the Mets organization wants Nimmo to force them to make the decision.
That’s why the clock is ticking. Everyone is waiting for him to take over CF. We’re looking forward to seeing Nimmo and Michael Conforto continue to drive each other to become the best players they can be. If they bring out the best in one another just watch out when they’re reunited in the majors.
I’d like to see Nimmo get his chance. I’d hate to see him blocked by what will be an albatross of a contract. Right now, it’s up to him. Conforto forced his way to the majors. Nimmo has to be the same. He’s now on the 40 man roster, which means there’s one less hurdle.
Soon, it will be Nimmo’s time.
Last summer, the Mets understandably almost traded Zack Wheeler. They thought they were getting Carlos Gomez, an All Star Gold Glove CF with another year of control. They were trying to make a playoff run by trading an injured pitcher. Ironically, the deal fell apart due to Gomez’s, not Wheeler’s, medical records.
Once the trade was undone, it seemed like the Mets were primed to create an even deeper super rotation. The only thing that stands in that way is the amount of holes this Mets team has coupled with the financial constraints. The Mets have roughly $18 million in the budget to get a second baseman and a shortstop. Depending on your point of view, the Mets also need a centerfielder and a reliever. Good luck filling all of those needs with that little money.
If you want to do it, you’re going to have to make a trade or two. With the Mets unloading their best trade chips, they’re going to have to trade from their major league talent pool to improve their roster. Everyone wants the Mets young pitching. Perhaps the best way to do that would be to trade Wheeler. He’s still highly regarded, but he also wasn’t there for the run to the World Series. Only the Mets say they’re not shopping him.
That’s what they say. In actuality, they are shopping Wheeler around to teams. Here was Assistant GM John Ricco’s quote about the prospect of trading Wheeler:
We’re not actively shopping Zack by any stretch. But as with the other starters, if something came up that we thought would make us better, we’re going to talk about it.
***
If there’s a deal that we think really makes us better, I can’t say we would [trade Wheeler again].
Here’s the thing about these quotes: there have been no Wheeler trade rumors. None! This is a salvo from the Mets to let people know they Wheeler is there for the taking . . . again.
It’s a smart move. He’s probably at his peak value. People remember his terrific stuff. They just saw the Mets young pitching go to the World Series. Wheeler was good enough to fetch an All Star CF with a reasonable contract last year, and that was when Wheeler was at least a year away.
Wheeler hasn’t had a set back during his rehab. He hasn’t come back and faltered. Neither of these may happen, but they are certainly possibilities. It’s also important to remember that Wheeler has a wealth of talent, but he has only been an average pitcher.
With that said, it’s a good time to shop Wheeler to see if you can get even more than the All Star CF they were set to obtain. This was the first time Wheeler’s name has been mentioned by anyone as a trade candidate. You’ll probably start to hear it a lot more. The Mets put his name out there to field offers.
They should start coming in. That’s what happens when you shop a player around. That’s what the Mets started doing by saying they’d consider trading him.
Today is the deadline for Daniel Murphy to accept or reject the $15.8 million qualifying offer. While I anticipate he will reject it, the possibility remains that he could accept it:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/665195238332452864
Sooner or later, the Mets will have to give the second base job to Dilson Herrera. He’s got the potential to be an All Star one day. He hit .327/.387/.511 in AAA this year. He might not have been ready when he was called up this year, but he’s only 21 years old. He may need another year to be ready. Another year of Murphy helps that.
This will be David Wright‘s first full season after his spinal stenosis diagnosis. We will find out how much he can play. If he’s limited in how much he can play, Murphy has shown he’s more than capable of playing at third for a stretch. It’s possible the Mets could let Wright go on the DL to rest permitting Murphy to play third and get Herrera comes time at second to see if he’s ready. Having Murphy around another year is a nice insurance policy.
It would also give Murphy more time to work with Kevin Long. I’m not expecting Murphy to repeat Murphtober, but it should be noted he had the most homeruns he’s ever had. He did this while hitting 38 doubles, the second highest he’s ever had. It was the highest slugging percentage he’s ever had over a full year. Another year with the Mets should let us know if it was a career year or something else.
I can understand not wanting Murphy on a multi-year deal. He’s still not good defensively at second. You might be paying him for postseason performance rather than what he has been his whole career. However, on a one year deal? It makes too much sense.
I’m not worried about it “ruining” the Mets offseason plans. The bullpen is in good shape. The rotation should be better with a full year of Steven Matz, no Bartolo Colon, and Zack Wheeler scheduled to return. The shortstop options out there aren’t better than Wilmer Flores. The CF market is full of players who shouldn’t play in center. Therefore, Juan Lagares is probably their best option. So with that said, how does Murphy “ruin” their offseason?
It doesn’t. Murphy taking the qualifying offer is the Mets best case scenario. As Sandy Alderson stated himself, you only make the offer if you want the player back. Well, the offer was made. Hopefully, Murphy comes back for 2016.
With the Mets having limited money to spend, they seemingly have two options: (1) improve a strength; or (2) address a weakness. With the Mets have holes at both middle infield spots and centerfield, depending on your point of view, the Mets may be looking to improve a strength:
Sounds like Mets like O’Day too, which is obvious. But easy to see his market heating up and being out of reach.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
Without making a move, the Mets already have a good bullpen. Why improve it with all the other holes? Why address the bullpen when the Mets are losing Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes? The reason is you can’t bring back both. Therefore, no matter what happens you’re going to be playing in tight games next year. The best way to handle those games is with great pitching.
The Mets have great starting pitching, but only a good bullpen. The addition of Darren O’Day would make the bullpen great. In six of the eight years he’s pitched, he has had an ERA of 2.28 and below. For his career, righties hit .193/.261/.279. Lefties hit him better to the tune of .235/.294/.409. As you would expect, lefties hit the submarining O’Day better than righties, but they don’t exactly hit him well. Furthermore, O’Day has been improving against them while he’s been in Baltimore:
- 2014: .189/.264/.368
- 2015: .210/.293/.333
O’Day has become a terrific set-up man. Combining him with Jeurys Familia would make every game a seven inning game with the Mets. With their starting pitcher, that’s a dangerous proposition for the Mets opponents.
It may also be what the Mets need with what promises to be a diminished Mets offense.
From reports, the Mets have about $20 million to spend this offseason. The free agent market is a dud. The Mets seem to want a left handed bat for CF to replace Daniel Murphy even though the options aren’t really better than Juan Lagares.
In addition, the Mets bullpen will look good regardless of whether the Mets add a reliever or not. Their rotation is set for years to come. The Mets seem comfortable with the Murphy alternatives at second base. They seemingly just want that left-handed bat to balance out the lineup. With that in mind, they should just go out there and use their full budget on the best available player: Jason Heyward.
Heyward is a 25 year old outfielder who has yet to reach his prime. While he was with the Braves, he showed promise to be a power hitting outfielder hitting 27 homers in 2012. His numbers have not returned to that level. However, he’s been a productive hitter slashing .268/.353/.431 for his career and .293/.359/.439 last year. As he heads towards his prime, you can reasonably expect those numbers to improve.
In addition to his solid, if unspectacular hitting, Heyward has a reputation for being a good defensive player. Unlike Gerardo Parra, Heyward’s numbers match his reputation. Heyward won a deserved Gold Glove in 2014. He’s deservingly a finalist for the award which will be announced tonight. Over the past four years, Heyward has posted a UZR over 20. That’s definitively Gold Glove caliber.
The caveat is the Mets don’t need a RF, they want a left handed hitting CF. in his career, Heyward has been limited to just 32 games in CF. In those games, his UZR is 1.9. This would indicate he would be at least average in CF. However, truth be told 32 games is too small a sample size to rely upon for anything in baseball. Basically, it’s a gut decision. Can Heyward effectively handle CF for at least two years (Curtis Granderson has two years left on his deal)?
I believe he can (as do more reputable sources). I believe Heyward is a special player who just needs the right situation. Terry Collins has been good nurturing talent. Kevin Long had been good helping hitters find their swing. The Mets have a good locker room in general. This may be the ideal situation for Heyward even if he’s not playing at his preferred position.
He’s projected to receive about an 8 year $184 million contract. At the end of said contract, he would only be 33 years old. Translation: you’ve locked up a very good player for a reasonable price throughout his prime. You don’t have to pay for the down years like you typically do in a long term contract.
If the Mets are truly serious about contending in 2016, this is the move to make. Get Heyward in here and watch him blossom into the star we all thought he was when he was first brought up by the Braves. It’s rare you get the opportunity that helps you win now and in the future. The Mets have to seize that opportunity even if he’s the only player the Mets sign this offseason.
The Mets should sign Heyward.
Despite a good postseason and an offseason to heal, the Mets seem intent on having a different centerfielder in 2016. One of the players the Mets are interested in is Gerardo Parra.
This isn’t a new interest mind you. The Mets tried to trade for him last year before putting Michael Cuddyer on the DL and calling up Michael Conforto. Instead, the Mets watched Conforto become more than anyone dreamed he could be and saw Yoenis Cespedes play so well he garnered MVP consideration. With free agency, the Mets are circling back to Parra.
Parra is a career .277/.326/.404 hitter. He’s coming off his best offensive year. He hit .328/.369/.517 in 100 games in Miller Park, a hitter’s park. If you’re signing him based on these numbers, you believe these numbers translate to Citi Field. You believe he’s entering the prime of his career at age 28. You believe his .237/.268/.357 slash line in 55 games with the Orioles is too small a sample size to rely upon.
These are all reasonable assumptions. I can believe Parra is going to be a better offensive player in 2016 no matter where he signs. Coupled with Parra’s reputation as a good defensive player, he may be a bargain at the 3 year $24 million contract he’s expected to garner could be a bargain.
The problem is Parra’s defense is by reputation only. His UZR does not support his reputation. Last year, he had a -4.2 UZR as a leftfielder, which equates to him being a poor left fielder. It was a precipitous drop from his 3.2 UZR in 2014. I bring this up to be instructive. If he’s not as great a leftfielder as the numbers suggest, why would he be a good centerfielder?
The answer is he isn’t. He was abominable in CF last year with a -10.0 UZR in 289 innings. This was even worse than his -4.3 in 2014 in 65 innings. Translation, the more Parra plays in center, the more his flaws are exposed. Why would you want to see this over a 162 game season for the next three years?
Part of the reason the Mets lost the 2015 World Series was their defense. With that being the case, why would you seek to diminish the one area the Mets were Gold Glove caliber? Yes, Lagares had a down year. Yes, he’s had trouble against righties. However, even in a bad year, he’s still much better than Parra in center.
I understand looking to upgrade in center, but Parra is not the answer.
Judging from what I’ve read, the Mets seem most interested in adding a CF in free agency. However, what I mostly see is the Mets are interested in lefty bats:
My sense of the free agent CF types who are on the Mets’ radar at this point: Span, Fowler, Parra.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, and Dexter Fowler are everyday players. They’ve been everyday players for several years. They’re expected to receive 3+ year contracts for $8 – 13.8 million a year. There should be a reasonable market for these players meaning they’ll have an option to go where they want to go.
This means they won’t go to the Mets, at least not as a platoon player. Therefore, if any of these players comes to the Mets it will mean they have assurances that they’ll be the everyday CF. They should make them the everyday CF if the Mets are going to spend what’s necessary to bring them into the fold.
So if the Mets sign a CF, it means the Mets have moved on from Juan Lagares. I’m not sure it’s a wise move. Not just yet (even if I think Fowler gives them the best chance to win). He’s a year removed from a Gold Glove season. He’s got an elbow injury that just requires rest. Isn’t it the best case scenario for everyone that Lagares is the everyday CF. After partly losing a World Series due to defense, why downgrade the place where you’re best defensively?
So, while I’m hopeful the Mets will make improvements, I’m not sure it’ll be in CF. This means Lagares will receive one last chance to be an everyday player. I hope he rewards the Mets for their confidence in him. Otherwise, the Mets will bring someone else to do the job.
This will be a big year for both the Mets and Lagares. I’m hoping Lagares will be a part of the Mets plans.
By any measure, the Mets had a pleasantly surprising run this year capturing the 2015 National League pennant. The 2015 Mets weren’t perfect. They had some holes to fill. On top of that, new holes were created by free agency. Can the Mets fill in those holes?
The answer to that question begins with another question – do the Mets actually have money to spend? There are reports out there that suggest they don’t despite the additional postseason revenue. There are various reasons why. However, as a Mets fan, all you care about is what can they spend. The answer may not be what you want to hear:
Alderson pegged this year's opening day payroll at $103M and said 2016's should be "somewhat" higher, with room to add at trade deadline.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) November 4, 2015
Now, the Mets 2015 payroll was $120.4 million. However, a significant portion of that was covered by insurance due to David Wright‘s back injury. By my estimation, the Mets saved about $10 million. If we back that out, it means the Mets paid roughly $110.4 million in salary. Given Sandy Alderson’s statements that the Mets payroll will increase from the 2015 Opening Day payroll of $103 million, we should see the 2016 Opening Day payroll to be around the $110 million it was at the end of last year.
Right now, the Mets payroll obligations are estimated to be at $92 million for 25 players. Note, not all of these players will be on the Opening Day payroll due to various reasons from trades to the fact that the list has eight relievers on it. However, if the Mets keep all of these players, they’re paying them regardless if they’re playing in New York or Las Vegas.
In any event, that means the Mets have roughly $18 million to build the major league roster. That may be a problem because the Mets have question marks at 2B, SS, and/or CF. They also need a versatile player that is competent enough at third to play there semi-regularly. Effectively, this puts an end to my relatively modest Daniel Murphy–Dexter Fowler–Kelly Johnson plan.
That’s problematic because all three were expected to get somewhat reasonable deals Murphy and Fowler were only pegged to get four year deals. It’s not like the plan was Jayson Hayward and Zack Greinke. The plan was Murphy and Fowler. It’s absurd and depressing when you think about it.
It’s even worse when you consider an elite young starting rotation is slated to be paid a combined $7.1 million or $3.9 million less than what they paid for Bartolo Colon last year. It’s worse when you consider there’s no need for a bullpen upgrade.
Honestly, after seeing that comment from Sandy Alderson, I felt deflated a bit. After a pennant, the Mets will not be able to address their issues. It means if their cheap young pitching keeps them in it again, they’ll have to grossly overpay again at the trading deadline.
I’m sorry, but this isn’t how a pennant winner responds to falling just short. This isn’t how a New York team should operate, especially in an uncapped sport. There is no reason the Opening a Day payroll can’t be at least $120 million, which by the way, would’ve ranked them 15th, middle of the pack, last year.
Now, I truly can’t get upset until I see what the Mets do this offseason. They very we may spend more than they’re alluding. The payroll may not significantly rise, but they could pull off some shrewd trades to offset that. With that said, I’m not too enthusiastic at the moment.
We were promised if attendance went up the Mets would spend. Attendance went way up. It’s time for the Mets to finally spend some money.