Jacob deGrom
We all know the Mets are in bullpen trouble and they’re mismanaging the situation. You know the only way it could be worse? Putting Noah Syndergaard in the bullpen.
In 18 starts, he’s 7-6 with a 3.17 ERA. He’s got an ERA+ of 119, which loosely translated makes him 19% better than the league. He has a 9.5 K/9, which is better than Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. His FIP is 3.16, which equates to him being a great starting pitcher. On a team with a weak bullpen, he averages 6.1 innings per start. On top of all of this, he’s going to finish within his innings limits.
Now, please tell me why we should pull him from the rotation? Is it because we don’t want to be successful? Is it because we think Steven Matz MIGHT be better? Is it because we’d rather him make a few appearances pitching one inning a piece over six starts at six plus innings a piece? Fact is, there is no good reason.
We know the Mets have a weak bullpen. One way to mitigate that is to keep the weak arms in the bullpen. You do that with pitchers, like Syndergaard, who go deep into games. I like out-of-the-box thinking, but I also like ideas that make sense.
Syndergaard belongs in the starting rotation.
According to Carlos Gonzalez, Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball. This is notable because he shares a division with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Madison Bumgarner. With that said, I wanted to take a way too early look at deGrom’s chances of winning the Cy Young Award.
In doing this analysis. I wanted to take a look at different stats and predictors. I wanted to do this because I don’t think anyone one factor or stat should ever held to be dispositive. I went with the factors I fr most comfortable discussing. For each, I will only list the top five as that how many pitchers may be listed on a ballot.
ESPN Cy Young Predictor
The ESPN Cy Young Predictor focuses more on traditional stats like wins, losses, and ERA. As of right now, here are the rankings:
- Zack Greinke
- Trevor Rosenthal
- Michael Wacha
- Jacob deGrom
- Clayton Kershaw
WAR
WAR seeks to adjust the runs a pitcher allows in a season (I’m way oversimplifying, but fully explaining this is a post or 10 in and of itself). Here are the league leaders:
- Zack Greinke
- Max Scherzer
- Jacob deGrom
- Clayton Kershaw
- Jake Arrieta
FIP
Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, measures a pitcher’s effectiveness in preventing HR, BB, and HBP while causing strikeouts. Really, this measures the “Three True Outcomes.” Here are the league leaders:
- Clayton Kershaw
- Max Scherzer
- Zack Greinke
- Jacob deGrom
- Jake Arrieta
ERA+
ERA+ adjusts a pitcher’s ERA for various factors like ballpark and defense. Here are the league leaders:
- Zack Greinke
- Jacob deGrom
- Jake Arrieta
- Max Scherzer
- Clayton Kershaw
Winner
To calculate the winner, I’m using the BBWAA 7-4-3-2-1 formula to select the winner, i.e. first place gets seven points and fifth gets one.
- Zack Greinke (24 points)
- Jacob deGrom (13 points)
- Clayton Kershaw (11 points)
- Max Scherzer (10 points)
- Jake Arrieta (5 points)
- Trevor Rosenthal (4 points)
- Michael Wacha (3 points)
Analysis
Much of this seems to suggest what we already assume we know: Zack Greinke is going to win the Cy Young. It’s always great when the stats are in agreement.
I think it also shows we are right in assuming the top pitchers also include Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer. However, it was enlightening to see Jake Arrieta is having a tremendous year, and yet, he wasn’t an All Star.
Overall, deGrom is a strong second, but still second in projected voting. There is still a lot of season left, so there still might be a chance. Even if he doesn’t win, he’s still had a great year.
About three weeks ago, I addressed the Mets innings limitations problem. Without completely regurgitating everything here, my conclusion was that without a spot starter, Jacob deGrom would be the only stud muffin able to make a postseason start. Even at that, he would only be available for one game.
I thought with the latest go-round of stud muffin starts, it would be helpful to re-visit where we are on the innings limits:
Matt Harvey: I’ve noted his innings limits are between 180 – 190 innings. Right now, he’s at 148.0, or 42.0 innings before a hypothetical shutdown (don’t worry Collins said there’s no shutdown). By my rudimentary calculation, Harvey has nine starts left, at most. He’s averaging 6.2 innings per start meaning he will go over his limit by 18 innings (about three starts), not including the postseason.
Jacob deGrom: I’ve noted his innings limits are between 208 – 214 innings. Right now, he’s at 146.2, or 71.1 innings before needing to be shutdown. With approximately nine starts left and his averaging 6.2 innings per start, he looks to finish the year with 206.2 innings. It looks like he will be below his limits, postseason aside.
Noah Syndergaard: I’ve noted his innings limits are between 159.0 – 163.0 innings. Right now, he’s at 105.2, or 57.1 innings before needing to be shut down. With nine starts remaining and his averaging 6.2 innings per start, he looks to finish the year with 165.2 innings. He will be slightly above his innings limits right before the postseason.
So interestingly enough, if you’re only looking at the regular season, there isn’t an innings limitation problem with anyone but Harvey. This is yet again a sign the Mets shouldn’t “Matz” with the rotation right now.
While not addressing the pitching, Sandy Alderson did say, “[i]t’s about this year. Not next year.” I hope he keeps this in mind and puts Steven Matz in the bullpen. Remember it’s all about this year.
Way back when the Mets used to be good, an old friend and I would always lament these days games. It wasn’t just because we had to intermittently listen to the game on the radio, but it was also because odd things tend to happen to the Mets in weekday day games.
I was reminded of that a few weeks ago with that bizarre game against the Padres. With the way Noah Syndergaard started the game, I was afraid of another one of those games. In the first he let up two solo homeruns. The Mets got him the lead in the bottom of the first, and he gave it away in the third.
It looked like this was going to be a high scoring game, and Thor would be lucky to get through five. The Mets upheld their end of the bargain by scoring 12 runs. The Rockies wouldn’t score past the third for a 12-3 final. Amazingly, Thir finished with five strikeouts, 2 walks, four hits, and three earned runs in seven innings. Good for Terry Collins for sticking with him.
This may not have been the game in which he had his most impressive stuff or control, but it might’ve been his most impressive game to date. It’s one thing to win when it’s all working. It’s another to have a rough start with less than your best stuff and still find a way. This is the type of game where you say he could join Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey in being considered an ace.
Offensively, the lefties were hitting on National Lefthanders’ Day. Curtis Granderson went 1-3 with a walk, two runs scored, and a three run homer. Daniel Murphy went 1-5 with a run scored and an RBI double. Kelly Johnson went 3-4 with a double, a home run, a run scored, and three RBIs. Michael Conforto went 2-3 with a walk and three runs scored. The only left not in on the action? Lucas Duda, who missed his third straight game with his back injury.
It was also great to see Juan Lagares hit a pinch hit three run homer. He’s been going well pretty lately. It’ll be great to see him continue because the Mets could use his glove in the field everyday.
On another note, you have to admit you feel great about this team right now. I’m sure there are fans still scared from 2007 and 2008, but this team isn’t that team. Plus, the Nationals aren’t the Phillies. The Mets swept the Rockies and made them look like a last place team. The Rockies beat the Nationals two out of three.
I’m not guarantee in a division title, but I think it’s fine to feel confident and enjoy these games. Don’t let bad memories stop you from enjoying these new ones.
Good morning Mets fans. For some reason, food tastes better this morning. The air smells a little sweater. Overall, everything seems just a little bit better. Why? Here’s why:
AL East
Team W L GB
Blue Jays 63 52 –
Yankees 61 51 0.5
NL East
Team W L GB
Mets 62 52 –
Nationals 58 55 3.5
That’s right. The Mets are in first, and the Yankees aren’t. It seems like an Abbott and Costello routine. Not even ol’ Sebastian Dimwitty could figure this one out. Do you know the last time the Mets were in first place and the Yankees weren’t this late in the season? 1990!
Here’s a snapshot of what things were like in 1990:
- There were only four divisions and no Wild Card
- There was no interleague play
- Gary Cohen did radio and Howie Rose did TV
- Bud Selig owned the Brewers
- Tom Seaver was not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame
- Ron Darling pitched for the Mets
- Keith Hernandez was finishing his career in Cleveland
- Matt Harvey was one, Jacob deGrom was two, and Bartolo Colon was 30 (numbers are approximate).
- Noah Syndergaard, Wilmer Flores, and Michael Conforto weren’t born yet.
We know now that 1990 was the last hurrah for those 1980’s Mets teams. Now, it just seems like the beginning. Like I’ve said before, it’s a lot easier to raise a Mets fan when the Mets are good. It’s also easier when they’re better than the Yankees.
I know this may only last a day, but let’s enjoy it while it lasts. I get a feeling the Mets are in first to stay. Let’s Go Mets!
Personally, I love how quietly Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey are in this competition amongst themselves to be the ace of this staff. We shouldn’t be surprised the Mets have had two straight shut outs. Last night, Harvey allowed 4 hits and no walks with four strikeouts in eight innings.
Tonight, deGrom was brilliant behind that brilliant fastball of his. He ended his last inning brilliantly with his 10th strikeout in the seventh. Overall, he allowed two hits with an uncharacteristic four walks. All the more remarkable, he didn’t allow a run with first and third with no out in the fifth (much of that due to poor Rockie base running).
Offensively, Travis d’Arnaud is red hot going four for last nine. Michael Cuddyer played his second game in a row. He plated Juan Uribe, who had an RBI double of his own. We saw Yoenis Cespedes show a “Feat of Strength.” Other than that, there was much not going on offensively. This included a Michael Conforto pop-out in the seventh, when he pinch hit for deGrom. However, on a night with deGrom, three runs (3-0 final score) was all the Mets needed, especially with Tyler Clippard and Jeurys Familia locking down the win.
I guess I should also mention Cespedes had quite the armband . . .
. . . that just so happened to match the color of the new Rally Parakeet
Whether it’s the black cat in 1969, or the yellow parakeet in 2015, I’ll take all the help we can get.
Jacob deGrom is taking the mound tonight. Mets fans are all excited for his start tonight. Why shouldn’t we be. The man has been “deGrominant,” whether it was him winning Rookie of the Year, his All Star Game appearance, or his terrific 2015 season. How quickly we all forget that this was never supposed to happen.
When deGrom was first called-up to the Mets, he was supposed to be in the bullpen while Rafael Montero was supposed to be in the rotation. As we know, deGrom had a strong rookie season, and in the beginning of 2015, it was Montero who was assigned to the bullpen (at least initially). It turns out that would have been a colossal mistake. In fact, this should make Mets fans question every pitching move this front office makes.
To be fair, Montero did enter last year ranked ahead of deGrom. However, that is an independent rating of those two players. Each organization should know their prospects better than fine sites like Baseball America. Additionally, this is the same team that gave up on Collin McHugh, a very dependable major league starter for a team that wants to go to a six man rotation, for Eric Young, Jr., who is a part time player on an under .500 Braves team.
It didn’t stop there. Right before the season began, the Mets traded for Alex Torres, who pitched so well he’s in AAA right now. The cost was Cory Mazzoni, who was a prospect the Mets became frustrated with due to his injury history. It should be noted these were non-arm related injuries. Mazzoni has a decent repertoire that makes the 2011 former second round pick a back end starter or reliever. This is something the Mets need now. Instead, the Padres have the prospect and the Mets have dead weight. I just hope we don’t have another Heath Bell situation here.
This is why I wasn’t happy with the Tyler Clippard and Yoenis Cespedes trades. These are both rentals, who aren’t resigning with the team. If the A’s didn’t trade Clippard to the Mets, then the Nationals overpay or Billy Beane finally accepts the Mets offer. Overall, this is bad negotiation.
It’s also bad valuation of assets. Remember if not for injuries deGrom would be setting up for Jeurys Familia, or possibly closing while the Mets are figuring out the rotation on a sub .500 team.
This is why I question this front office. People may disagree with me, but this is partially why I question their treatment of Michael Conforto and Kevin Plawecki. Given their other moves, I think they invite this skepticism. I hope I’m not the only one.
I don’t understand what the Mets are doing with their prospects right now. First, they are actively stunting the development of Michael Conforto by keeping him in the majors and not playing him everyday. Keep in mind, this is a player, they didn’t want to call-up in the first place.
Additionally, there is the constant noise over the six man rotation, but their young stud muffins are set to far exceed their innings limits. Plus, these prized arms’ aches and pains are largely ignored until it becomes more serious. They even have Dan Warthen playing doctor. It’s inexcusable.
Their treatment of Kevin Plawecki is almost as ponderous. I understand he might’ve been the best option at backup catcher, but it’s not like he’s been good. It’s just that Anthony Recker and Johnny Monell have been that bad. That was, in part, the rationale behind keeping Plawecki up when Travis d’Arnaud came off the DL on July 30th. Let’s see how that worked out for Plawecki:
- 3 games played out of 11l
- .111 average
- 12 extra days of accumulated service time
In essence, the decision was just short of being a disaster. Plawecki is going to be a Super Two player. Overall, he’s hit .228/.283/.296. Those are ugly numbers, especially when he’s a .292/.368/.435 hitter in the minors. Obviously, he should’ve been in the minors trying to get better. For those that argue that there’s value sitting on a major league bench, it sure hasn’t helped him thus far.
Plawecki probably would’ve benefitted from time in AAA making him a better player. d’Arnaud did the same last year, and he’s the better for it. Plawecki didn’t, and he’s worse off. The Mets catching situation is also worse off.
Overall, the Mets prospects are worse off the past two years in how they’ve been handled. I only hope Plawecki and Conforto can overcome it because they have real promise . . . promise that isn’t being g cultivated by the Mets.
Now that was special. Even with Jacob deGrom and Tyler Clippard unable to keep the game tied, the Mets found a way.
First, Juan Uribe ties the game with a homer after this game started to look like the Grady Sizemore Show (homerun and stole a homerun from Wilmer Flores). After deGrom gave up a James Loney homer, Daniel Murphy hits a game tying homerun. Tyler Clippard gave up the lead on an Evan Longoria homerun that just skipped off the top of the right center field wall.
In the ninth, after Lucas Duda reached in an error and moved over on a wild pitch, Michael Conforto had the biggest hit of his young career (in a terrific AB) with a hustle RBI double to tie the game. He was moved over to third in a Travis d’Arnaud infield single and scored the go-ahead run when Flores served the ball into right [standing ovation].
Jeurys Familia closed out the game to secure the 4-3 win. In an odd sequence it took the Mets a few times to record the first out. Uribe was aggressive in fielding balls in front of third, but the umpire correctly called the ball foul each time.
With Clippard getting the win, when in actuality all he did was put the Mets on the brink of losing, I thought of how my thinking has evolved on wins. As I’ve stated before, I’m generally more open and accepting of Sabermetrics. I do think the pitcher wins are an overrated stat. For example, the horrendous Bartolo Colon is tied for the team lead in wins with Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. Luckily, no one on the Mets side had a loss to put in their ledger tonight.
Some other fun notes:
- The sound of the crowd made it sound like a home game;
- It was great seeing Dwighg Gooden at the game; and
- Terry Collins shows he’s delirious with some of these lineups
With the DH, he had his lefty platoon lineup out there which meant Conforto and Kelly Johnson (2B). He had Uribe and his defense at third. However, I don’t understand Flores at SS instead of Ruben Tejada. Collins brought in Juan Lagares for defense in the ninth. He should’ve done the same with Tejada. At least the mistake didn’t cost the Mets the game.
In other great news, the Rockies beat the Nationals to extend the Mets lead to 2.5 games (two in the loss). Tonight was a great night for baseball and an even better night to be a Mets fan.
Coming out of the All Star Break, the Mets wisely set their rotation to allow their stud muffins to face the Nationals twice. Initially, the move was a bust. However, after the Yoenis Cespedes trade, the Met took off and swept the Nationals. Now, it seems like the Mets want to go back to the six man rotation, or at a minimum have some spot starts. If the Mets did not go to the six man rotation or have any spot starts, here’s how the rotation would shake out:
8/7 @ Rays
8/12 vs. Rockies
8/18 @ Orioles
8/24 @ Phillies
8/29 vs. Red Sox
9/4 @ Marlins
9/9 @ Nationals
9/14 vs. Marlins
9/20 vs. Yankees
9/25 @ Reds
10/1 @ Phillies
8/8 @ Rays
8/13 vs. Rockies
8/19 @ Orioles
8/25 @ Phillies
8/30 vs. Red Sox
9/5 @ Marlins
9/10 @ Braves
9/15 vs. Marlins
9/21 vs. Braves
9/26 @ Reds
10/2 vs. Nationals
8/9 @ Rays
8/14 vs. Pirates
8/21 @ Rockies
8/26 @ Phillies
8/31 vs. Phillies
9/6 @ Marlins
9/11 @ Braves
9/16 vs. Marlins
9/22 vs. Braves
9/27 @ Reds
10/3 vs. Nationals
8/10 vs. Rockies
8/15 vs. Pirates
8/22 @ Rockies
8/27 @ Phillies
9/1 vs. Phillies
9/7 @ Nationals
9/12 @ Braves
9/18 vs. Yankees
9/23 vs. Braves
9/29 @ Phillies
10/4 vs. Nationals
8/11 vs. Rockies
8/16 vs. Pirates
8/23 @ Rockies
8/28 vs. Red Sox
9/2 vs. Phillies
9/8 @ Nationals
9/13 @ Braves
9/19 vs. Yankees
9/24 @ Reds
9/30 @ Phillies
Now, we are all aware of the rumblings of the Mets using a spot starter or returning to the six man rotation. What we also know is the Mets are going to rip past the innings limits anyway. So in this somewhat academic analysis, just go back and take a look again at how the rotation will work out. For starters, it’s great that Colon only pitches one game against a team over .500 until the last week of the season. Additionally, if everything works out according to plan, you don’t have to finagle the rotation to start the postseason with Harvey, Matz, and Syndergrom. Isn’t that your goal? Now, if things get hectic towards the end, remember the Mets don’t have a huge lead right now, they can shift starts around in September so you can have the stud muffins going against the Nationals in the last series of the season.
Overall, if you are going to rip through the innings limits, why not do it properly and set the team up for success in September and October? My belief is that if you don’t change the rotation as it stands right now, the Mets look to be in good shape for the rest of the season, and they will have their stud muffins front and center entering the postseason. Let’s not overthink things and keep it the way it is.