Hot Stove
Fans are clamoring for Yoenis Cespedes. They want him. They need him. Here’s the problem. What’s the corresponding move?
When the Cubs signed Ben Zobrist, they were prepared. They had a deal worked out for Starlin Castro to go to the Yankees. Having the deal in place helped prevent the market from suppressing Castro’s value because the Cubs would’ve had to trade Castro. If the Mets want to sign Cespedes, they’re going to have to do the same thing.
Right now, the Mets have Michael Conforto in left, Juan Lagares and Alejandro De Aza platooning in center, and Curtis Granderson in right. If you sign Cespedes, something’s gotta give. Let’s start with the obvious. You’re not moving Conforto. Also, with the Mets signing De Aza cannot be traded until June 15th. That leaves Granderson and Lagares. Which one do you move? It’s a matter of selling low on Lagares or selling high on Granderson.
If you trade Lagares, you’re trading an elite defensive player. He was a 5.5 WAR player and a Gold Glover just in 2014. He had a down year in 2015. We don’t know how much of it had to do with his elbow injury, but he fell off the map defensively. He went from an 18.6 UZR to a 3.5. Basically, he went from a Gold Glover to merely above average. If Lagares isn’t elite defensively, he’s not an everyday player.
I still think Lagares has value. He had a terrific postseason hitting .348/.375/.435. He performed well in Winter League action this, even if he showed platoon splits. He’s still just 26 years old. The hope is he rebuilds his value. If he does, and you sell low, you’re going to regret it.
The other choice is Granderson, who may be at the apex of his value. Last year he hit .259/.364/.457. He was a dynamic leadoff hitter. For long stretches of the season, he was the only legitimate hitter in the lineup holding things together. He was a Gold Glove finalist. He was the best position player on the Mets last year. He then followed it up with a great postseason. He hit three World Series homeruns. He’s a great fit for a win-now team like the Mets.
However, he is turning 35 before the start of the next season. He’s a year removed from a .237/.326/.388 season. He just had surgery on a torn ligament in his thumb. There are risks relying upon his production for next year.
The last option would be to keep everyone. That is a monumental task for Terry Collins. You have to keep Lagares and De Aza happy with even more limited at bats. You have to hold off on the temptation of benching Conforto for stretches if he struggles or goes into a prolonged slump. There’s an issue of relying on Wilmer Flores too much. Remember, he hit .263/.295/.408 last year. The Mets still need a 1B/OF option.
Putting aside the issues it would create, Cespedes is a good player who could help the Mets. The fans want him. The issue then becomes who do the fans want to jettison?
There are real and legitimate reasons for the Mets not re-signing Yoenis Cespedes. Advanced stats like UZR and DRS suggest he’s a poor defensive centerfielder. Despite his hot streak with the Mets, he still only has a career .319 OBP. Also, you can knock the Mets finances all you want, but is a 30 year old outfielder worth a long term deal? Those deals typically end badly.
Well with Cespedes still unsigned, and the fans still clamoring for him, the Mets decided to offer some more reasons. As John Harper reported in his New York Daily News article, the Mets had other issues with Cespedes, which included:
- He marches to his own drumbeat;
- He refuses to take batting practice;
- He doesn’t hustle;
- He smokes during games; and
- He will be a headache if he receives a long-term deal.
I’m not going to say any of these reasons are incorrect. I’ve never seen Cespedes take batting practice. We saw him miss player introductions at Citi Field during the World Series. I’ve yet to see him go to first base when he struck out on a ball in the dirt. He was lacksadasical running down a routine flyball leading to the infamous inside-the-park homerun to open the World Series. Better yet, he didn’t even run after the ball once it got by him. So yes, I believe the Mets on all of these fronts.
However, why are you telling this to us now? I never heard of the batting practice issue in August. Apparently, there was no issue with smoking in September. Why are the Mets smearing Cespedes now?
If it’s to change the public opinions of Mets fans on him, it’s misguided. If it’s to distract about how the Mets aren’t spending, it’s not working. If it’s to drive down his market to put him within their range, it’s not happening. So again, what did leaking all this information to the New York Daily News accomplish?
To me, all it accomplished was making the Mets seem small and petty. This guy was a good player for your team for three months. He was a fan favorite. He was a thrill a minute. For all of that, the Mets just spat in his face and kicked him out the back door. They did it even when everyone knew the Mets had zero intention of re-signing him. At the end of the day, there was no need for it.
Cespedes deserved to be treated better.
Editor’s Note: a version of this article also ran on metsmezmerizedonline.com
From what I gather from reading incorrect interpretations of the book, I take many people did not actually read Moneyball. If you haven’t, you should go and read it. If you have, now is the time to re-read it.
The reason to re-read it now is the script for the Mets postseason lies within those pages. I know Sandy Alderson was no longer the A’s GM at the time; it was Billy Beane. However, remember Beane’s top two lieutenants were J.P. Riccardi and Paul DePodesta. Until recently, they were Alderson’s top lieutenants. They were at least in place when the Mets were creating their offseason plans.
One of the many aspects of the book, which the movie seemed to get purposefully wrong, was how the A’s went about replacing Jason Giambi and one-year rental Johnny Damon. In essence, the A’s determined they flat out didn’t have enough money to replace these guys with other high priced players. Instead, the A’s were going to have to replace their production using a different line of thinking. I’m summing up here and being a little over simplistic, but here was the thought process:
- The team needed to identify what was undervalued on the free agent market (OBP);
- They needed the cumulation of their entire roster to replace Giambi and Damon since they couldn’t just sign two big name free agents to do it; and
- They needed to do it as cheaply as possible.
So what did they do? Well we know the Scott Hatteberg story with him being moved to first due to his traditionally high OBP (more on that later). In the movie and most other places, the story behind the David Justice acquisition is plain wrong. The A’s obtained him from the Mets, not the Yankees, in exchange for a LOOGY by the name of Mark Guthrie and a mistake waiting to happen by the name of Tyler Yates. It was the Mets, not the Yankees, who kicked in salary. It was only $1.2 million.
Now for the moves that haven’t received much fanfare. The A’s handed the secondbase job to a young Mark Ellis, who was capable of higher production than last year’s second baseman Frank Menechino. Menechino was moved to the bench to create a deeper roster. The A’s traded for Carlos Pena, who was a promising young player. Pena was supposed to be the first baseman with Hatteberg at DH and Justice in LF. That’s the way it was up until the trade deadline. They also traded for Billy Koch to sure up the closer’s role for the departed Jason Isringhausen.
By design, the A’s replaced Giambi and Damon not only with Pena and Justice, but by also improving their DH spot (Olmedo Saenz and Jeremy Giambi) and secondbase. In essence, the A’s added three new starters putting their old starters on the bench. The A’s left some payroll flexibility and had assets for the trade deadline.
The A’s used Pena in a three way trade to acquire Ted Lilly to sure up the rotation behind their three young big pitchers. They then used a prospect to acquire Ray Durham to DH with some needed cash. Hatteberg moved to be the full time first baseman. And yes, like in the movie, the A’s also added Ricardo Rincon to be the LOOGY to sure up the bullpen.
Did it work? If you look at the record, it absolutely did. They went from a 102 win team to a 103 win team. However, the reason wasn’t Hatteberg or Rincon. No, the part we forget is Barry Zito won the Cy Young, and Miguel Tejada win the MVP. They were powered by an insane 20 game winning streak. Lost in that streak was the A’s played only one team over .500 and played two teams that lost over 100 games that year.
The 2002 A’s got top notch performances from their top guys, and they made sure to beat the teams they were supposed to beat. Make no mistake. The 2002 A’s were worse. They scored 84 less runs and allowed nine more runs. However, at the end of the day, it didn’t matter. They won one more game.
The Mets are in a similar position as the A’s were. Make no mistake about it, the Mets have limited funds. With those funds, they needed to go out and replace the production of Daniel Murphy and a half a season of Yoenis Cespedes. Last year, Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 with 14 homers and 73 RBI. Cespedes hit .287/.337/.604 with 17 homers and 44 RBI in his time with the Mets.
We already know how the Mets replaced that production. They traded for Neil Walker, who hit .269/.328/.427 with 16 homers and 71 RBI. He’s a career .272/.338/.431 hitter. The Mets then decided to go with a platoon in center. There is in-house option Juan Lagares to hit against lefties. He hit .273/.333/.438 against lefties last year and .279/.325/.427 for his career. Platooning with him is Alejandro De Aza, who hit .278/.351/.448 against righties last year and .274/.338/.418 for his career. Now, this isn’t enough to replace the production of both of Murphy and Cespedes.
That’s where Asdrubal Cabrera comes in. Last year, Wilmer Flores played the bulk of time at shortstop hitting .263/.295/.408. Ruben Tejada played a lot there hitting .261/.338/.350. The Mets hoped by signing Cabrera they have significantly upgraded the position to cover the loss of Murphy and Cespedes. Cabrera hit .265/.315/.430 last year with the Rays. Speaking of replacing Cespedes’ second half production Cabrera hit .328/.372/.544 in the second half last year. Tangentially, the bench is theoretically better by having Flores and Tejada there.
Following the script they invented in Oakland, the Mets have already done what they believe they needed to do to replace the production they have lost. Right now, the Mets projected payroll is ~$106 million or about $4 million less than the 2015 payroll. Accordingly, the Mets are maintaining payroll flexibility like the A’s did so they can make trades at the deadline.
And, by the way, the Mets are powered by their three big young starters. How will it work out in 2016? We don’t know yet. However, if history is any lesson, the 2016 Mets will be worse than the 2015 version. If they want to have a better record, the 2016 Mets will need to take advantage of their games against bad teams like the Phillies and Braves. One of the young pitchers will have to step up even more. We’ll see which everyday player can step up to have the Tejada-like season.
At some point or another, we have all heard of the Five Stages of Grief, which are:
- Denial
- Anger
- Bargaining
- Depression
- Acceptance
Not to demean anyone’s grief, but this truly feels like what the Mets fans are currently going through with Yoenis Cespedes.
When the Mets first acquired Cespedes, there wasn’t any question whether the Mets could re-sign him. Cespedes had a quirky contract that forced the team he was on to negotiate a deal within five days. If the deal was not completed, he could not be re-signed by that team for basically another year or so. However, there were some events that changed that.
The first was Cespedes got hot. Not just hot; no, he was insanely hot. From August 12th – September 14th, he hit .323/.379/.805 with 17 homers and 37 RBI. He then waived the obstructive clause in his contract thereby allowing the Mets to sign him at any point in the offseason.
As the offseason began, the Mets fans entered the denial stage. Despite all evidence pointing to the contrary, Mets fans believed that Cespedes would return. The reports all said he would t return. Mets fans focused on the team having extra money from the postseason run, money freed up from Michael Cuddyer‘s retirement, and Cespedes’ own overtures that he wanted to come back to the Mets.
Then the Mets signed Alejandro De Aza to be the left-hand hitting platoon option for Juan Lagares in centerfield. At this point, the idea of Cespedes not returning to the Mets became more real, and the Mets fans responded angrily. They besieged every Mets tweet with a “Re-sign Cespedes” or something of that nature. They began to point out how the Mets have all that extra revenue from an extended postseason run, and they’re still not spending it.
With the Tigers signing Justin Upton, the Mets fans have entered the bargaining phase. With one less suitor for Cespedes, the Mets fans now believe Cespedes may take a shorter term deal from the Mets. Sure, they want the Mets to give him a long term deal, but they’re willing to accept that the Mets can re-sign him for a one to three year deal. The Mets can make it work with lots of opt outs.
This leaves Mets fans with two more stages: Depression and Acceptance. Depression will surely come as another team swoops in and signs Cespedes. They’ll be depressed thinking about Lagares and De Aza manning center while Cespedes is off bringing his unique skill set somewhere else. Finally, probably around Opening Day, Mets fans will see their team in action and accept the roster for what it is.
So while this offseason is almost over, Mets fans are really only halfway through the Five Stages of Cespedes. If only it were as fun as celebrating the holiday of Cespedes.
Like most people, I like to play the projection game going into a season. I’m curious what other people think about the Mets. A vast majority of us are really using gut instinct and intuition to make these judgments. A site like Fangraphs uses hard data to arrive at their projections.
While much attention has been made about the projected standings, not at lot of attention has been paid to the different drivers to that calculation. Specifically, I’m referring to the Mets decision to trade Jon Niese for Neil Walker. At least according to Fangraphs, the way too early returns on this trade are not good for the Mets. It’s not the whole reason, but it’s at least part of the reason they are projected to finish behind the Nationals.
Let’s start at the switch from Murphy to Walker. Last year, Murphy hit .281/.322/.449. In his career, he’s a .288/.331/.424 hitter. He’s played most of his career with Citi Field as his home park. Last year, he worked with Kevin Long and saw some increased power. His replacement, Walker, is projected to hit .258/.329/.427. Essentially, Fangraphs sees Walker as a downgrade from what the Mets previously had offensively at second base. They see Walker as a downgrade from a player who really wanted to return to the Mets.
As we know, the side effect of the Walker trade was Murphy signing with the Nationals. Now that he’s away from Citi Field, he’s projected to hit .308/.351/.440. Effectively, Murphy is taking the place of Ian Desmond because Danny Espinosa is moving from second to short. Desmond hit .233/.290/.384. By the Mets not re-signing Murphy, it allowed the Nationals to do so, and as a result, their 2016 team projects to be a lot better than the 2015 version.
Sure, you could argue Murphy’s projected 2.3 WAR isn’t significantly better than Walker’s 2.2 WAR. This does neglect the fact that the Mets could’ve had Murphy for nothing. They had to give up Jon Niese for him. Niese has a reasonable, team friendly contract with team options for $10 and $11 million respectively in 2017 and 2018. Niese was a big trade chip. They used it on Walker, who isn’t even an upgrade.
Don’t believe me? Consider this. For his career, Niese has a 3.91 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 7.0 K/9. Wei-Yin Chen has a career 3.72 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and a 7.0 K/9. Both are left-handed. Both put up similar stats. Niese is 29, and Chen is 30. Chen just received a five year $80 million deal. Niese makes $9 million this year. If he gets injured, a team can walk away. If Niese is good, a team has him on a two year $20 million deal. Niese’s production and his contract carry a lot of value.
The Mets used Niese and didn’t even upgrade at second. They treaded water. Their old second baseman has gone to the Mets main competition in the NL East and has made them markedly better. To make matters worse, the Mets don’t have Niese to use as a trade chip for a big bat this year. Instead, they have the 42 year old Bartolo Colon, who has next to no trade value next year. This leaves the Mets hoping everyone outplays their predicted production.
As a result, the very early returns suggest the Mets made a bad trade and will regret losing Daniel Murphy.
Editor’s Note: this article also ran on metsmerizedonline.com
For all of his faults as a centerfielder, Yoenis Cespedes is an incredibly gifted baseball player coming off of a career year at the relatively young age of 30. In 2015, he hit .291/.328/.542 with 35 homers and 105 RBI. He was the Gold Glove left fielder in the AL, and he set the world ablaze upon coming to the NL. Teams should be lining up to give him a big contract.
So far, they’re not. They’re also not lining up for Justin Upton, who at 27, is just entering his prime. His 162 game average is .271/.351/.473 with 26 homers and 84 RBI. Are we supposed to believe teams aren’t interested because he had a down year offensively while playing at Petco Park? Then there’s an established player like Dexter Fowler, who is a leadoff hitter and a centerfielder on a team that just won 97 games at went to the NLCS. These guys would make a great outfield from left to right.
Heck, you can surround them with a pretty good team. There’s Chris Davis at first, who’s 47 homers lead the AL. There’s Howie Kendrick at second, who’s a good glove and high average guy. The 2013 playoff hero, David Freese, mans the hit corner. Ian Desmond is the rare shortstop who averages around 20 homers a year. By the way, these are all Top 50 free agents who are all unsigned, and we’re 36 days away from pitchers and catchers.
It’s insane! In fact seven of the top 15 free agents remain unsigned. One that did sign was Alex Gordon. He signed a team friendly contract that has been described as a bargain. We’re now hearing questions whether three-time All Star Justin Upton will only seek a one year deal. The Mets, who once discussed a two to three year deal with Cespedes, is now thinking of offering him only a one year deal (of course they’re expecting him not to take it). This all sounds a little too much like Andre Dawson to me.
Due to the owner’s collusion back in 1987, Andre Dawson offered a blank check to get him out of Montreal. Did I just use the word collusion? Yes, I did. At what point does someone bring it up? There are simply too many big time free agents unsigned.
The offseason was somewhat slow to develop, and then we saw a lot of deals happening. The top players were receiving opt out clauses to the dismay of the Commissioner. After that, free agent signings came to a crawl. There are several top free agents left with the start of Spring Training a little more than a month away. The top free agent that did sign in Janusry signed a team friendly deal. Can we at least be suspicious? Doesn’t the Mets reducing their offer to Cespedes scream a little foul?
Better yet, doesn’t it make you yet again question the Mets jumping the gun signing Alejandro De Aza? With all these big time free agents, why wouldn’t you wait a little longer? Even if De Aza fills a real need, is it worth signing him and losing out on Cespedes or Fowler? Did the Mets just get a really bad read on this free agent market or is something else going on here?
I don’t know because none of this makes sense. Players in their prime putting up huge numbers are not supposed to be available now. Yet, here we are. These players are available, and they might be seeking team friendly deals like Gordon because the market seems to be suppressing their value. Whether that’s artificially or not is up for debate.
What is not up for debate is the fact that the Mets had a bad read on this market. As a result, they have De Aza, and they probably won’t have Cespedes. No one is coming to the Mets with an open check. Instead, they’ll go elsewhere on team friendly deals.
When gauging the free agent market, Sandy Alderson noted there aren’t many pitchers out there who aren’t much better than what they already have:
Alderson yesterday: "Does it really improve the team to give a reliever a 1-2 year deal if we don't believe he's better than what we have?"
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) January 8, 2016
There are dwindling options because the Mets didn’t act while there were high impact guys available. They waited and waited . . . . At that point, the only thing you can hope for is high upside relievers. That’s what “The Final Boss” was. He was a huge upside reliever. He dominated the Korean Leagues. We don’t know if he’s a closer, a high leverage reliever, or just an adept bullpen arm.
We do know he received a two year deal. He received a two year deal with an average annual value of around $3.7 million a year. That’s less than what the Mets are paying Jerry Blevins to be a LOOGY. What’s a better use of the money? A pitcher could be a dominant reliever or someone who can only get lefties out? I like Blevins, and the Mets do need a LOOGY. However, is that more valuable than a late inning reliever who could spell Jeurys Familia on occasion. Blevins isn’t going to take any innings away from Familia. He’s not going to allow the Mets to save Familia from being overworked.
However, that’s a false narrative. The Mets should be able to afford Blevins and The Final Boss. Sure, I think the bullpen is good as is, but the Mets didn’t at the beginning at the offseason. All of a sudden, it’s fine? Is this more of the Mets inability to spend? This isn’t alright. The Mets are just spinning.
Whether or not the Mets are going to add another reliever isn’t the issue. They’ve missed out on yet another reliever. They’ve missed out on yet another high upside player. However, this time the player signed a cheap short-term deal.
The Mets now aren’t even signing the players in their wheelhouse.
When assessing what’s left of this offseason, Sandy Alderson has given fair critiques on what remains. He has stated Yoenis Cespedes was a square peg for a round hole. In essence, Alderson was saying Cespedes’ bat doesn’t justify his poor defense.
Last year, Cespedes’ UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in centerfield was -3.2, which is also his career average. UZR tells us he’s a below average centerfielder. DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) paints an uglier picture. Cespedes was a -17 in center last year, which is about as bad as it gets. His career average in his prior years in center is -4, which suggests he’s below average. Therefore, no matter what stat you want to use, Cespedes is a poor defensive centerfielder in a spacious Citi Field outfield.
Mets fans seem to feel differently because Cespedes hit extraordinarily well when he came to the Mets. When he was hitting like that you could justify his poor defense in a key defensive position. Problem is Cespedes just doesn’t hit like that. He’s a low OBP with good power (or potencia). He is a career .261/.319/.486 hitter. He is a career .236/.302/.491 hitter at Citi Field. I know I expected that to be a lot higher too. Thing is if Cespedes reverts back to these numbers, you can’t justify playing him in centerfield everyday.
Understandably, Mets fans remember him more for his insane hot streak. They overly correlate winning the division with Cespedes’ arrival. Some will dismiss the statistics and point to the eye test. With respect to the eye test, all I can say is Cespedes gave up not one, but two, Little League homeruns last year. How many centerfielders do that?
Overall, the Cespedes’ situation leaves me irritated. No, I’m not irritated because the Mets aren’t going to re-sign him. I’m irritated because of what they gave up to get him.
The Mets gave up Michael Fulmer for three months of Cespedes. At the time of the trade, the industry believed Fulmer was an unbelievable get for the Tigers. Yes, baseball people said the Tigers won the deal; not the Mets. Part of the reason might be the fact the Tigers most likely couldn’t re-sign him due to the language in his contract. Cespedes wouldn’t and most likely couldn’t re-sign with the Tigers, and they got Fulmer in the deal? It just wasn’t a good trade. The Tigers were the more desperate team, and the Mets still gave up too much value for a player they knew they weren’t going to re-sign.
Fulmer could be a potential ace. Last year in AA, he was the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year. He’s a guy who can get his fastball up to 97 MPH with a full repertoire. He can probably help a big league team in 2016. He will be bringing that talent to the Tigers instead of the Mets.
Usually, it’s at this point I hear how you have to give up something to get something. That’s fine, but that doesn’t change the fact the Mets have up too much for a player they had no intentions of re-signing. I’ll also hear how it was worth it because the Mets won the NL East and made the postseason. That’s a stretch considering the Nationals imploded, and the Mets won the division by seven games.
Furthermore, this trade ignores the John Smoltz trade. In 1987, the Tigers traded Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. Alexander was terrific for the Tigers going 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA. He helped the Tigers win the AL East. I’m sure Tigers fans were elated. The problem is the Tigers didn’t win the World Series, and oh yeah, they traded away a future Hall of Famer. Do you think the Tigers and their fans would want a do-over on that trade?
Is Fulmer a Hall of Famer? We don’t know that yet. We don’t know if he’ll be an ineffective starter and have to go to the bullpen. The thing is his value as a potential ace was much higher than a rental.
Here’s what we do know:
- The Mets lost 15 pitchers over the last year;
- The Mets had to sign a fifth stater this offseason; and
- The Mets didn’t win the World Series.
That’s it in a nutshell. The Mets tout all this pitching depth, and yet they’re signing guys like Bartolo Colon because they didn’t have a fifth starter. Furthermore, the Mets don’t have a World Series title to show for losing all that pitching. In fact, they don’t even have a Cespedes. So while I agree with Sandy Alderson that Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder, I can’t agree with him giving up a potential ace to a desperate team for someone he saw as a square peg to a round hole.
Just like most Mets fans, I’m irritated over the Cespedes situation. However, I’m irritated because they gave up a lot to bring him to New York. I’m alright with them admitting he wasn’t a centerfielder. I just wish they realized that before sacrificing a part of their future. A part of their future that will come all the more important when the Mets may not have the money to re-sign any of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, or Noah Syndergaard.
When that times comes, what will you be thinking? Will you be thinking the three months of Cespedes was worth it, or will you be wondering about how the Mets really could’ve used Fulmer to cushion the blow? My bets on the latter.
Editor’s Note: this first ran on metsmerizedonline.com
I think it’s fair to say that Mets fans have been disappointed in this offseason. No matter how you look at it, the 2016 Mets are worse the the Mets team that lost the World Series. There are still some moves to make, but I agree with Sandy Alderson when he says Yoenis Cespedes isn’t one of those moves.
The issue is Cespedes just isn’t a centerfielder. It’s the reason why Alderson said signing Cespedes is trying “to fit a round peg in a square hole.” Cespedes was great for a stretch, but it was mostly with the bat. Be honest with yourself for a second and think about Cespedes’ tenure with the Mets. What was the great fielding play he made in center? I tried racking my brain, and I couldn’t come up with one. The only thing I could think of was a throw:
Look, it was an awesome throw. He has an incredible arm. However, the throw was made possible because he played the ball poorly. No, I’m not saying he should’ve caught that. I’m saying he was in poor position. Go watch it again. The ball splits the outfielders and goes to the wall. While the ball is rolling to the wall, Cespedes is still heading towards left field. Given the curvature if the Citi Field walls, it’s physically improbable that ball bounced towards left. Sure, Cespedes turn it into a remarkable play, but it doesn’t change the fact he almost misplayed a double into a triple.
Here’s the part where many people will say I’m over-analyzing one play. That’s a fair critique. With that said, let’s look at his defensive metrics. Cespedes had a UZR of -3.2, which rates him as a below average centerfielder in a large outfield. It’s not a one year fluke as Cespedes’ career UZR in center is -12.6, which equates to an average UZR of -3.2 per season.
If you don’t like UZR, let’s look at Cespedes’ DRS (defensive runs saved). Cespedes was a -17 in center last year! That’s worse than below average. It’s flat out awful. It was the worst of his career. Typically, Cespedes averages a -4, which is still below average. There’s simply no reason to believe Cespedes is a good centerfielder. He’s not even an average one.
Typically, when I raise this argument, I’m told the eye test shows Cespedes is a good centerfielder. Are you sure:
Don’t know about you, but my eyes tell me that was a bad defensive play. He didn’t look like a great centerfielder there. It’s also not nitpicking just one play. Here’s another:
How many good centerfielders allow two Little League homeruns in one year? The answer is none. By the way, you have to hate his lack of hustle going back for the ball he missed there.
Ultimately, we remember Cespedes being better than he was defensively in centerfield because he has a canon of an arm, and we were distracted by his bat. It was a fun run with him, but the truth is it was nothing more than an insane hot streak. For his career, Cespedes is a .261/.319/.486 hitter. He has hit .236/.302/.491 at Citi Field. Those aren’t the types of numbers that can cover up bad defense at a position where defense is at a premium.
Like all Mets fans, I appreciate what Cespedes did. However, let’s be honest his career statistics prove out he’s not a centerfielder. I’m not saying you need to be happy with Alejandro De Aza. I’m saying you need to be honest and admit Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder. He’s a corner outfielder on a team with two terrific incumbent options with Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson.
Cespedes is just a square peg that can’t fit the holes the Mets have.
It’s funny when you think about it, but Kelly Johnson is now an ex-Met. He has returned to the Atlanta Braves where he has played most of his career. However, at least to me, in his three plus months with the team, he became a Met.
It might’ve been the circumstances in which he came to the team. The offense was historically bad. Terry Collins was trying to stick Danny Muno sized pegs into a Krakatoa sized hole. I used Krakatoa there because it was a disaster. Sandy Alderson finally responded by making a shrewd trade to bring on Johnson and Juan Uribe. In his first game as a Met, Johnson hit cleanup, played second, and did this:
The Mets who couldn’t hit their way out of a paper bag suddenly beat the Dodgers 15-2. The season had a different feel. The Mets made a move, and it was paying off. The Mets would win three straight. Everything changed when Johnson and Uribe joined the team. Everything that happened afterwards started with them.
Johnson did all he could do to help. He played every position but pitcher, catcher, and center. I appreciated it, but to me that wasn’t the moment he became a Met. That moment was after Game Two of the NLDS. He lambasted that coward. He was emotional defending his teammate, a teammate that was a New York Met.
Before the trade, I was never a fan of Kelly Johnson. The reason is as simple as it might’ve been unfair. He was an Atlanta Brave. Now, however, I see him as a New York Met even if he’s back in a Braves uniform. He was a key part of a World Series team and wish him the best of luck. When he returns to Citi Field this year, I’ll stand up and clap. He deserves it.
Thank you Kelly Johnson.