Hot Stove
With Adam Rubin’s latest report, I have newfound faith the Mets can re-sign Daniel Murphy. I had began the process of letting him go, even if I was still holding out hope.
The news that the Mets will at least make a competitive offer perked me up a bit. I began to think if there’s anyone who would turn down more money, it’s Murphy. I think it even if it’s not true. I need Red to come over here and snap me out of it. I wish he’d come and say something along the lines of:
You shouldn’t be doing this to yourself. This is just some pipe dream. Murphy’s value is way up here and the Mets budget is way down there . . . and that’s the way it is.
However, the closest thing I have is Marc Carig. He’s a very good reporter, but he’s no Red:
Re: Murphy, his chances of returning to the Mets still appear quite slim unless he's ready to leave a boatload of money on the table.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 19, 2015
Also, keep in mind that Murphy made it clear he's talk in season about an extension, and the Mets did not take him up on that offer.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 19, 2015
However, I go back to thinking about Shawshank. I think of all the garbage Murphy went through in his time with the Mets. The moving him around the field. The focus on what he didn’t do well rather than all the positive attributes he brought to the table. In the end, Murphy went through all of that, and he came out clean on the other side. From also ran to the 2015 NLCS MVP.
All season long, I was never quite sure what that Italian man was singing about during the seventh inning stretch. I don’t want to know as somethings are best left unsaid. I’d like to think they were singing about something so beautiful like Murphy’s swing. The balls off his bat soaring higher and farther than anyone in Citi Field dares to dream. It’s like each ball hit brought you closer to a World Series. In those brief moments, you believed.
Ultimately, I still think he leaves. I think he goes on to better and brighter things to a team that wants and respects him more. It makes me sad. I’ll have to remind myself he deserves better. He deserves the money he’ll receive on the free agent market. Still, Citi Field and the Mets won’t be as entertaining when he’s gone.
All I have is hope right now that he’ll stay. Hope that we will both be at Citi Field on Opening Day wearing our Mets caps. That’s the funny thing about hope:
Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best if things, and no good thing ever dies.
In 2013, the Red Sox signed Stephen Drew to a one year deal. In that year, Drew presumably built up his value in a year the Red Sox won the World Series. The Red Sox and Drew at least thought so. The Red Sox offered him a Qualifying Offer, and Drew rejected it. His career has never been the same.
Drew just kept on waiting for a deal commensurate with his perceived value. He waited and waited and waited. He waited into the 2014 season. At that point the Red Sox knew no one was signing him, so they were not going to get draft pick compensation. They had injuries and a need for an infielder. They brought Drew back on a prorated portion of the Qualifying Offer.
He wasn’t good, and he hadn’t been good since. In 2014, he hit .162/.237/.299 in 85 games. He was so poor the Red Sox had no problem trading him to a Yankee team still hoping to make the playoffs. In 2015, the Yankees brought him back to play second. He hit .201/.271/.381 in 131 games. If he’s been this bad, why should the Mets sign him?
For starters, he’s a left handed bat that can be plugged into the middle infield. For his career, Drew hits righties to the tune of .260/.329/.436. While he had a disappointing year last year, he did hit 17 home runs with 14 coming against righties. Only nine of the homers were at Yankee Stadium, so it’s not like he’s completely a creation of that bandbox.
He’s also been a decent fielder. The last three years he’s recorded UZRs of 5.3, 3.0, and -0.6. In a full season at second last year, his UZR was -0.2. Basically, if he played for the 2015 Mets, he clearly would’ve been their best defensive middle infielder.
No, I’m not expecting him to be an everyday player. He’s going to be 33 years old next year. His best baseball is behind him. At best, I think he’s a platoon player at either second or short. He allows Dilson Herrera extra time in the minors if needed. He’s an insurance policy against Ruben Tejada‘s injured leg. He’s also bound to come cheap.
Honestly, I can’t imagine it would take more than a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training to obtain Drew. If that’s the case, it’s a no lose proposition. If he’s terrible or the younger players are ready, cut him or send him to the minors as an insurance policy. If he’s good or the younger players aren’t ready, you have a player who can contribute next year.
With the available free agents and the Mets budgetary constraints, these are the type of signings that will be most likely for the middle infield.
The Mets have a lot of needs this offseason. The only thing everyone seems to know is the Mets aren’t going to spend money or re-sign their third place hitter, Daniel Murphy, or their clean-up hitter, Yoenis Cespedes.
Here’s the thing. The only free agent who has signed a deal was Rich Hill. The only major trade was the Andrelton Simmons deal, and we know Simmoms wasn’t going to be traded to the Mets. With all the rumors flying around, one thing is for certain. Nothing has been decided yet.
It’s an important offseason for the Mets. They were just in the World Series. If they want to return and/or win there’s work to do. The Mets also have to make good on some promises. They always said if fans came to the ballpark, they would have money to spend on payroll. Well, the Mets had a 19.5% increase in attendance. SNY ratings are up 60%. The Mets are increasing ticket prices. There should be more money to spend. In fact, there is. There’s about $45 – $60 million extra revenue from 2015.
No, that’s not what we’re hearing. We’re hearing free agents are costing too much. We’re reminded small market teams outspend them. The reason might be because the Wilpons and their entities have significant debt payments due. There’s supposedly more than $29 million due. If the Mets don’t do anything, that will be the story and deservedly so.
Personally, I don’t think there is much out in the free agent market. I advocated letting Cespedes walk. However, there are realistic avenues to spend money. They can bring back Murphy. They can create a dominant bullpen. They could also start trying to extend their starting pitchers. There’s room to spend money.
I’m frustrated with the Mets right now because they’ve done nothing, but then again, there’s been very little movement in the offseason. It’s also frustrating not being able to vent about what most Mets fans feel is inevitable. We all assume the Mets won’t spend, but we can’t exactly call them out on something that hasn’t happened yet because the possibility remains they might.
All in all, it all just creates a very irritating and frustrating offseason. By the way, the offseason has only been a little over two weeks old. There’s the definite possibility it’s going to get worse.
Before starting this post, I feel the need to re-state how much: (1) Daniel Murphy is one of my favorite all time Mets; (2) I think the Mets are better off re-signing him; and (3) I’ve defended him against unfair and untrue statements. If you don’t believe me, I’ve taught my son he’s the Mets second baseman.
However, with Murphy now all but gone, I wonder if the Mets made the right decision keeping him over Justin Turner. To be fair, it wasn’t an either/or decision back in 2012 when the Mets non-tendered him. Furthermore, the Mets decided they would rather have Murphy as their everyday second baseman over Turner the prior year.
Now, Murphy and Turner are the same age. It appeared as if Murphy was the better everyday player while Turner was able to admirably be a utility player. There was no room for either at third with David Wright. Also, back then it appeared as if Ike Davis would be the first baseman for years to come. We knew it wasn’t the right move to get rid of Turner. However, the question really is, should Turner have been playing over Murphy?
In 2011, Turner and Murphy basically played everyday due to injuries and the ineffectiveness of other options (see Brad Emaus). In 117 games, Turner hit .260/.334/.356. In 109 games, Murphy hit .320/.362/.448. Based upon those numbers, of course Murphy should’ve been the player the Mets wanted at second base. So yes, the Mets made the right decision there.
In 2012 and 2013, the Mets had a chance to reassess. Murphy hit .291/.332/.403 and .286/.319/.415 respectively while playing every day. In part time duty. Turner would hit .269/.319/.392 and .280/.319/.385. Again, it appears the Mets made the right decision.
So why now is there a question? First, there is a service time issue. Murphy is now a free agent, who may well be priced out of the Mets market (if they were interested). Second, after waving the Mets, Turner has been better than Murphy.
In Turner’s two years in Los Angeles, he’s hit .340/.404/.493 and .294/.370/.491. His WAR has been 4.2 and 3.9. Conversely, Murphy has hit .289/.332/.493 and .281/.322/.449. His WAR has been 1.9 and 1.4 respectively. By either measure, Turner has been a better player. To make matters worse, Murphy is a free agent and Turner will not be one until 2017.
The lesson here isn’t that the Mets let the better player walk. The lesson here is that the Mets did a poor job with player analysis. That lead to them cutting Turner loose. The Mets could’ve used him in 2015 with all of the injuries. He could’ve been a viable Murphy alternative for 2016.
Instead, he’s in Los Angeles, and we don’t know where Murphy will play next year. If Murphy isn’t re-signed, it may very well be another example of how the Mets don’t scout well internally and/or value their own players enough.
The Mets better hope Murphy doesn’t make them look as bad as Turner has. I think Murphy will.
I’m still holding out hope the Mets willer-sign Daniel Murphy. In the unfortunately likely event Murphy leaves the Mets, Wilmer Flores is ready to take his place.
When Murphy was first called up he was placed in LF and played there until he showed he couldn’t. Being blocked at the positions he plays better, he learned how to play shortstop. Ironically, it was Murphy’s presence at second that lead the Mets to try Flores at shortstop.
Murphy played second and Flores plays short because the organization believed in their bats. Unfortunately, neither player plays very well in their new middle infield positions. As a result, the Mets moved them off the position for stretches of time whenever they could. A big part of the reason is both players had early on problems turning the double play. For Murphy, it was first and third. For Flores, it was second. As a result, the two players have become versatile even if their real value to the Mets is their weakest defensive position.
Because they are forced to play out of position, the Mets have seemingly been constantly trying to find an upgrade over them. Much like Murphy at second, the Mets have been unsuccessful in finding a better long term shortstop option for Flores. Additionally, both players have been rumored to be moved by the Mets. Somewhat surprisingly, Flores was closer to getting traded than Murphy ever was.
Finally, both are fan favorites. For Murphy, it started with his heroicsin 2008, and it continued with his hard work and play ever since. For Flores, it was him crying on the field after he thought he was traded. These two fan favorites were the double play combination for a pennant winning Mets team.
Sadly, the main difference between these two players isn’t Murphy batting lefty and Flores batting righty, it may be the team they play on in 2016. I still think it’s in the Mets best interest to keep them both in 2016, but I don’t work for the front office. If Murphy has truly been pushed out the door, Flores has some mighty big shoes to fill.
If he matches Murphy’s hard work and dedication, he will. I believe Flores can and will.
Simply put, the free agent market for shortstops isn’t good when there is no clear-cut upgrade over Wilmer Flores. Accordingly, the Mets will probably have to get creative if they want a new shortstop.
With the Reds having a fire sale, there is plenty available. They have quality major leaguers at a number of positions. Of all of these players, the most expendable and easy to obtain player should be Zack Cozart. Due to his injury last year, the Reds saw their shortstop of the future, Eugenio Suarez, play everyday and earn a spot as the Opening Day shortstop in 2016.
Cozart would be an interesting addition for the Mets. For a team looking to add offense this season, he’s a player whose value is almost solely derived from his defense. It better be because he’s not a good hitter, not even in a hitter’s park like the Great American Ballpark. He’s a career .245/.284/.375 hitter with an OPS+ of 79. That’s bad. To put it in perspective, Juan Lagares struggled at the plate last year, and his OPS+ was 80.
So if the Mets are adding Cozart, they will be adding him solely for his defense. During his five year career, his average UZR is 6.5, which means he’s above average. Not great, but above average. If you remove his injury shortened 2015, the average rises to a 7.6, which is better, but it still does not put him in any Gold Glove discussions.
It’s a risk even before taking his knee injury into account. He’s also a terrible hitter who probably doesn’t have the glove to justify the bat. So why take a risk? Easy, he’s going to come cheap. That’s important for a team with limited resources.
Assuming he’s tendered a contract by the Reds, he’s projected to make $2.9 million. With Ruben Tejada also on the mend, the Mets could carry both of these players into the spring, and see who is healthier and/or better. If Cozart reaches his potential, he may one day become a Gold Glover. If he can’t play, the Mets can simply cut him before the start of the season. It that case the Mets would owe either him or Tejada 30-45 days of salary.
Ideally, the Mets should wait for Cozart to be non-tendered. If he’s not, it would be prudent to add him to the shortstop mix.
With the Mets most likely losing Daniel Murphy in free agency, there is a hole at second base. The Mets seem comfortable with Dilson Herrera in his place. With that said, Herrera is 21 and may need some more time before being able to take over the position full time.
The problem is the second base free agent market is devoid of stopgap options. When that is the case, you can either stick with what you have, or you could look to trade for a stopgap option. Right now, the Cincinnati Reds are conducting a fire sale and have Brandon Phillips. Would Phillips be worth pursuing?
For his career, Phillips has hit .273/.320/.421. Last year, Phillips hit .294/.328/.395. Now, most of these stats come from his hitting at the Great American Ballpark, which is a hitter’s park. His career OPS+ is 96. Last year, it was at 97. Basically, Phillips is around a league average hitter who shows he’s not in decline offensively despite being 34 years old.
He has an average UZR of 5.8, which makes him an above average second baseman. Like his offense, Phillips has shown that he’s not declining defensively. In the last five years, his respective UZRs have been 11.1, 8.7, 8.6, 8.1, and 2.0. Last year was a drop defensively, but he’s also the best defensive option.
There are two hurdles to him becoming a Met. The first is you need to trade for him (I don’t try to guess what’ll take). The next is his contract. He still has two years and $27 million left on his deal. That’s a lot for a team with limited resources, but still less than what the free agent second baseman are commanding. If the Mets want to add a second baseman, Phillips might be the cheapest option.
Phillips might be the best second option the Mets have right now.
The two most versatile infield options are Ben Zobrist and Daniel Murphy. The Mets are rumored to be interested in Zobrist despite his declining production and his age. What’s surprising is the Mets aren’t even remotely linked to Howie Kendrick.
Like the other two players, Howie Kendrick is a former All Star second baseman. While he doesn’t have their versatility, he has played some outfield and firstbase. Unlike Murphy and Zobrist, he bats right handed. He’s expected to receive a similar contract to Murphy and Zobrist. He’s slated for a four year deal worth $52 million or $13 million per year. He also rejected a qualifying offer.
However, it is possible that Kendrick is the best secondbase option of the three players. Here’s how he compares to the other free agent second baseman:
Howie Kendrick
- 31 years old
- 10 year career
- Career .293/.333/.423
- 2015 .295/.336/.407
- UZR Average 3.13
- 2015 UZR -4.5
- Career WAR 28.6
- 2015 WAR 1.1
Daniel Murphy
- 30 years old
- 7 year career
- Career .288/.331/.424
- 2015 .281/.322/.449
- UZR Average -4.0
- 2015 UZR -1.3
- Career WAR 12.5
- 2015 WAR 1.4
Ben Zobrist
- 34 years old
- 10 year career
- Career .265/.355/.431 hitter
- 2015 .276/.359/.450
- UZR Average 3.3
- 2015 UZR -6.7
- Caree WAR 38.5
- 2015 WAR 1.2
From all of this, we can glean that Zobrist has had the best career, but he’s also the oldest. Murphy’s only real edge is that he’s done it in New York, which is a market where we’ve seen many good players faulter.
Like Murphy, Kendrick is in the prime of his career. Like Zobrist, Kendrick has shown himself to traditionally be a good second baseman. In 2014, his UZR was 6.7, and he hit .294/.347/.397. If that’s the player the Mets would be getting, he would clearly be the best option. However, after last year, you don’t know if Kendrick can still be that player.
There’s a case to be made for all three. Kendrick would be an interesting addition considering the Mets point go defense as a big reason why they lost the World Series. Unfortunately, it seems the Mets are only interested in Zobrist.
Whatever happens tonight, it’s been a good ride for Terry Collins. He’s shown his humanity. He kept the Mets together when all hope seemed lost around the All Star Break. He was the manager of a team that went to the World Series.
For all of this, he was rewarded with the two year contract extension he wanted. Also, he was named as a Manager of the Year finalist. After managing a rebuilding Mets team since 2011, he finally got a chance to manage a winner, and they won the National League.
He’s spent his life in baseball. He had some issues with the Astros and Angels teams. He had trouble adapting to the culture in Japan. However, he returned to what he did best – developing young talent as a minor league coordinator. Regardless of the GM you credit, Collins has a role in the development of most of this team first as the minor league coordinator and then as manager.
Given the run to the World Series, I’d say Collins was successful. He’s being recognized for that today, win or lose. Today’s not the day to point out his faults, it’s time to celebrate a man who has given his life to baseball. Baseball is a better sport for having people like Terry Collins in it.
Congratulations Terry Collins for receiving recognition for all you’ve accomplished and the positive imprint you have left on the game.
Let me start off by saying, I’m not in favor of trading the Mets starting pitching. They’re still cheap, and they’re the main reason the Mets won the NL East and went to the World Series.
With that said, everyone wants at least one of the Mets young starters. It at least appears the Mets are shopping Zack Wheeler. There’s a lot of smoke surrounding the Mets moving Matt Harvey. It’s probably due to the double standards applied to him. It’s more likely that it involves him being arbitration eligible with the Mets having limited resources.
In any event, the Harvey rumors and trade suggestions are abound. At my cousin’s wedding on Saturday (congratulations Brian and Alison), my brother and I discussed the Mark Simon article regarding the proposed Harvey for Mookie Betts trade. My brother’s main objection to the idea of trading Harvey was his value will only increase next year. If we’ve seen anything with pitcher’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s they are better in Year 2.
My brother is right in principle. You want to trade players at their peak value. Right now, that pitcher is Jacob deGrom. For much of the season, he was a Cy Young candidate. He was the story at the All Star Game. He had a terrific postseason. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2018, and he can’t be a free agent until 2021. His value may be at its absolute peak.
He will also be 28 years old next year making him the oldest Mets starting pitcher, at least the oldest amongst those who the Mets have control over past 2016. In some ways, he emerged as the staff ace rendering him untradeable. In other ways, it makes it the right time to trade him.
You don’t trade someone like Harvey who is still building up his trade value. You trade the player who you believe is at peak value. Again, while I don’t advocate trading a starting pitcher, we should at least identify the one who will bring back the most value and be at the most risk for regression.
That player is deGrom.