Ruben Tejada
The 2015 Mets had a number of free agents. Of all the players that were on the World Series roster, the only one they brought back was 42 year old Bartolo Colon. They need to bring another player to provide real depth to the major league roster.
Right now, the Mets are expecting Wilmer Flores to literally back up every infield position. He’s the answer to every contingency. David Wright needs a break or has to go on the DL? Flores to third. Neil Walker doesn’t hit well against lefties. Flores to second. Lucas Duda needs a day off? Flores to first. Asdrubal Cabrera reverts back to the way he has the prior five and a half seasons? Flores to short. That is unless Ruben Tejada‘s leg completely heals, then Flores and Tejada will become part of the triumvirate over there.
The Mets need another option. Last year, Wright and Daniel Murphy got hurt. This lead to the Mets moving the deckchairs around the Titanic. We saw a lot of Dilson Herrera, who wasn’t ready. We also saw a lot of Eric Campbell, who is nothing more than a bench player. They were pressed into action because frankly, Flores and Tejada showed they couldn’t hold down the fort. They shouldn’t have been everyday players, at least not in the first half. Remember, for all the Mets vaunted new depth, they’re still two injuries away from Flores and a Tejada both being everyday players. It didn’t go so well last year.
Their relative ineptitude lead to the best trade the Mets made last year. They brought in Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. They provided real depth, and they took the pressure off of everyone else. It’s of little surprise that once they came to the Mets, Tejada began to establish himself as an everyday player. They way it appears, the Mets have one roster spot left. Uribe or Johnson should be brought back for 2016.
The argument for Johnson is he can play all the infield positions, including being an emergency SS, and both corner outfield positions. He provides more depth and versatility than a Ryan Raburn or a Steve Pearce. In 49 games, he hit .250/.304/.414 as a Met. He’s a career .251/.333/.424 hitter. While the Mets would prefer a right-handed bat, Johnson has fairly even platoon splits where that shouldn’t matter. In his career, he has hit .244/.330/.421 against righties and .272/.334/.431 against lefties. More than anyone Johnson has the versatility to provide the depth the Mets need.
Uribe on the other hand is much more limited. He is now a third baseman, but he was willing to play some second last year. It’s possible given an offseason, he may be willing to learn first. It would help considering he’s a right-handed bat, and he was a leader in the clubhouse. Last year, Uribe only hit .219/.301/.430 as a Met. However, he did hit .253/.320/.417 overall. Like Johnson, he had no real platoon splits. He hits .258/.303/.419 against righties and .251/.302/.427 against lefties. It should be noted if Uribe comes back, Flores probably needs to learn to play the outfield as well.
I’d prefer to add both players, but as it stands, the Mets only have one bench spot open. Johnson had the versatility, but Uribe has the leadership skills, which are crucial on a young team. If the Mets go either way I can’t fault them. In fact, I’d argue they’re needed because the Mets can’t have Flores be the answer for everything.
No, the Mets need a veteran presence with versatility so the Mets can make good at the deeper and more versatile overtures they have been making.
There are many out there calling the Mets offseason a success so far. Personally, I don’t see it. Yes, I know the offseason isn’t over, but we’re also pretty sure the Mets aren’t replacing Yoenis Cespedes‘ bat.
Overall, the Mets as constituted now are not better than the team that lost the World Series. Here was the lineup for the team that just lost the World Series, with their respective WAR from the 2015 season:
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- David Wright 0.5
- Daniel Murphy 1.4
- Yoenis Cespedes 6.3
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
Combined 20.9
If the Mets make no other additions this offseason, which still remains a possibility, here’s the Mets 2016 starting lineup with the player’s WAR from last year.
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- Neil Walker 2.4
- David Wright 0.5
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Asdrubal Cabrera 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 17.1
On paper, barring any further additions the 2016 starting lineup is worse than the 2015 World Series team. This is despite how more “athletic” the Mets are in the middle infield. In response, the argument is the Mets are now deeper. Are they? Let’s compare the 2015 and 2016 benches.
Before comparing, it should be noted I’m going to use a traditional 13 position players and 12 pitchers split. That means I will have to eliminate once bench player from the 2015 Mets. I’m choosing to remove Kirk Nieuwenhuis from the roster as he was called up in September.
I’m also dropping Juan Uribe from the 2015 roster. When building a team, you’re going to want a backup shortstop. Uribe doesn’t fit the bill. Since Ruben Tejada was injured, and thus unavailable, I’m replacing him with Matt Reynolds, whom I’m assigning a 0.0 WAR since he didn’t play at all last year.
Here’s the modified 2015 World Series bench:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Matt Reynolds 0.0
- Michael Cuddyer 0.5
- Kelly Johnson 0.3
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 2.3
Here’s the current bench, which would be subject to change with a free agent signing:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
- Ruben Tejada -0.1
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.7
- Eric Campbell -0.5
Combined 1.8
Now to be fair, the 2016 bench will mostly likely not have Eric Campbell on the Opening Day roster. Eliminating his -0.5 would balance out these benches.
Here’s one big problem, if not Campbell then who? Let’s assume Mets fans get their way, and the team signs Denard Span. Span had a 0.7 WAR last year. Yes, that’s the same as Kirk’s. Slotting Span into the everyday lineup has this effect:
- Starting Lineup WAR increased from 17.1 to 17.2
- Bench WAR decreased from 1.8 to 1.7
- Eric Campbell or Kirk Nieuwenhuis is still on the Opening Day roster
Now, first counter-argument will be the offseason isn’t over, so the Mets can still make additional moves. Currently, without any other moves, the Mets payroll stands around $105.7 million. Let’s assume for arguments sake, the Mets have around $10 million to spend. With that $10 million, the Mets are looking to add a reliever, a CF, and another bat.
Span is estimated to receive about $12 million a year. Well, that blows the whole budget. Even assuming the Mets could get Span for less, they’re not going to have enough money for a reliever and another bat after that. So again, chances are either Campbell or Kirk will be in the Opening Day roster.
The next counter-argument is last year’s WAR doesn’t account for full years from Wright, d’Arnaud, or Conforto. This point-of-view is acceptable. However, you also have to acknowledge Granderson may be due for a regression at 35 years of age with a repaired torn ligament in this thumb. Also, based upon their histories, you can’t rely on Wright or d’Arnaud to last a full season. Essentially, while you can expect some players to improve or play more often, you can expect others to regress and/or suffer injuries.
Overall, the Mets still might be able to win the NL East and return to the playoffs in 2016. They will do so because of their pitching. However, objectively speaking, you have to admit the 2016 Mets are and will be weaker than the 2015 Mets team that lost the World Series.
That is unacceptable.
Now that Ben Zobrist is a Cub, the Mets have to figure out what they’re doing at second base. It’s a subject that’s been covered extensively. Here’s a brief synopsis of what the Mets could do.
Dilson Herrera
Dilson Herrera is a well regarded prospect the Mets surely hope can be the second baseman soon, regardless of the Zobrist flirtation. They are comfortable having him there. It’s not surprising because he’s regarded as a future All Star.
Like Daniel Murphy, Herrera is regarded as an offensive second baseman. He’s a gap hitter with the speed to steal some bases. He’s not known for his defense, but he’s got potential. That’s the thing with Herrera. He’s got lots of potential. It’s a good and bad thing. If he’s the second baseman next year it’s not a failing of the front office per se. He’s a very viable option.
Daniel Murphy
As noted, there are misconceptions out there about Murphy. However, one thing that appears to be true is the Mets do not appear to value him the way they do other players. Murphy is a good player that can take another team to the next level. For the time being, it appears the Mets will look elsewhere.
Neil Walker
After Murphy, it appears the Mets would need to turn to the trade market, and it appears Neil Walker is available. Furthermore, the Mets appear at least have some interest.
Walker replaces Murphy’s left handed bat in the lineup. He’s a similar hitter too. Unfortunately, he has not had Murphy’s postseason success, and he’s a worse fielder. However, he’s a year away from free agency. If he has a great year, the Mets could give him a Qualifying Offer. If not, the Mets can give the job right to Herrera.
Walker may be nothing more than a stop gap, but he’s a good player that can help the Mets next year.
Howie Kendrick
There’s a lot to like with Howie Kendrick. He’s the best option defensively. He’s in the prime of his career. He’s a solid hitter. However, he was offered a Qualifying Offer, and the Mets don’t appear eager to sign him.
Wilmer Flores
If the Mets move Wilmer Flores to second, he officially becomes the New Murphy. In some ways, it may be destiny.
For this to happen, someone else needs to be the shortstop. Ian Desmond is coming off a few bad years, and he received a Qualifying Offer. Again, the Mets probably won’t forfeit a draft pick. So for Flores to play second, Herrera is probably going to have to struggle, and Ruben Tejada is going to have to be able to be the everyday shortstop. Despite a nice second half, Tejada has yet to do that. Additionally, Tejada now has less range there than Flores.
If Flores is the second baseman, it probably means all other options have completely failed.
Pipe Dreams
The Mets could look elsewhere, but players like Robinson Cano aren’t coming to the Mets. He makes too much money, and the Mets probably don’t want to dip into their prospects and starting pitchers to obtain him.
Overall, it seems like the Mets may go with Herrera. However, there are still viable alternatives out there the Mets can still pursue.
I just wish Murphy was the choice.
There has been a lot of handwringing over the Mets choices over the 40 Man Roster. There are quality prospects now exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Some pointed to Eric Campbell still being on the roster. I don’t like how the Ruben Tejada situation is impacting the roster. Mostly, I don’t understand how Darrell Ceciliani is on the 40 Man Roster.
I know it was a very small sample size, but Ceciliani showed us nothing that would lead you to believe he’s a major league player. In 39 games last year, Ceciliani hit .206/.270/.279. He had more strikeouts than hits. He struck out in one-third if his plate appearances. His OPS+ was 55, which is just abysmal. Really, the only good thing you could say about him was he was an adequate fielder.
Now, he’s only 25, and he’s still a prospect. However, he’s not really a good prospect. Essentially, he’s projected to be a 4th OF. It’s nothing to sneeze at, but it’s also not a reason to let better prospects walk. Keep in mind Ceciliani’s potential role with the team is already filled by Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Nieuwenhuis has at least showed that he can be a good pinch hitter, pinch runner, and/or platoon option for Juan Lagares.
Unfortunately, the Mets went with Ceciliani over the pitching prospects and/or Wuilmer Becerra. I don’t understand the logic. The Mets are sacrificing players who may very well be selected in the Rule 5 draft for a player who might not have even been claimed off waivers.
Ceciliani should not be on the 40 man roster.
Yesterday, the Mets made their additions to the 40 man roster to protect their prospects from the Rule 5 draft. I can understand only having 39 players on the roster because if there’s a player available, you want the roster space to select that player. If you’re roster is at 40, you’re not permitted to make a Rule 5 draft selection.
What I can’t understand is if the Mets lose a prospect and non-tender Ruben Tejada later. The rumors have been circling the Mets want to non-tender Tejada because he’s too expensive. That merits its own separate argument (it’s a dumb move). I only bring it up here because if you know you’re not keeping him, why let him stand in the way of keeping a prospect?
For me personally, there were two players who were non-tendered that jumped right out: Wuilmer Becerra and Matt Bowman. Now, there are legitimate reasons to expose these players to the Rule 5 draft. Becerra has never played above A ball and is really two plus years away from being able to play in the majors. Bowman had a horrific year last year.
I also suspect both will be taken in the Rule 5 draft. They both could return to the Mets. However, if a team like the Braves picks them up, they’ll probably stay there all year as the Braves seem to be renting the 2015 Mets June offense. If either of these players are taken the Mets made a critical and unacceptable mistake.
Essentially, they’re sacrificing players for no good reason. If you’re non-tendering Tejada, do it now. Protect another player from the Rule 5 draft. Why let Tejada stand in the way of the Mets keeping Becerra who could be a fixture in the Mets outfield for years to come? Why let Tejada stand in the way of Bowman rebounding and becoming a big trade chip and/or a contributed in 2016? If the reports are true about Tejada, the handling of the 40 man roster is just negligent.
The Mets have created a situation where they need to keep Tejada, not just for an option at shortstop, but also as justification for losing two prospects for nothing. If they let Tejada walk, they may lose three players over $3 million. Absurd.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
MLB Trade Rumors updated where the Mets are this offseason. Unsurprisingly, the prognosis isn’t good. Despite the overtures that increased attendance will mean increased payroll, it appears the Mets won’t make good on that promise.
In the post, it discussed how the Msts appear unwilling to make the type of contract it would take to sign the following players:
The Mets just came off of an NL Pennant. There’s more money. There are holes in this roster. Instead of filling the holes, the Mets are creating new ones. It’s making an already frustrating offseason even more so.
If the Mets choose not to spend any money on these players, who are they going to pursue? Jason Heyward? Not likely. Instead the Mets will turn to the likes of Dilson Herrera, Matt Reynolds, and whatever other cheap players they could acquire. This is what the Mets seem to believe is the appropriate course.
By not negotiating with Murphy inseason, the Mets have put themselves in the predicament of having to overpay for a player. They didn’t mind it last year with Michael Cuddyer. However, now it’s a problem with Murphy and Tejada. It’s a problem with two players that helped bring you to the postseason and the World Series. I’m still perplexed this team isn’t going to spend to try to bring this team right back to the World Series.
I guess that just means all Mets fans are Charlie Brown and the Mets are like Lucy. They give us hope and taking it away laughing. We’re just flat on our backs looking like idiots.
Since Sandy Alderson has become the Mets General Manager, he has shown two weaknesses: (1) building a bench; and (2) building a bullpen.
The main reason for the bench issue is he doesn’t value what he has. A few years ago, he non-tendered a quality bench player in Justin Turner. Now, it appears the Mets will make the same mistake again with Ruben Tejada. The reason? Well essentially it boils down to the possibility Tejada may receive a raise in arbitration of about $1.2 million meaning he would earn around $3 million next year.
It’s penny wise, pound foolish. Tejada has his flaws, but he’s a capable bench piece. He can play a reasonable shortstop for one to two games at a clip. His bat isn’t awful. If his broken leg proves to be too much, the Mets could cut him before the season begins and only owe him 30-45 days worth of salary.
Remember, Mets fans were told that if we came out to the ballpark, the team would spend. Mets fans came to the park in 2015. Ticket prices are going up in 2016. There really isn’t a better option than Tejada in the trade market. Is this team really going to let $1 million stand in the way of building a credible major league bench?
The Mets should think about it this way. They paid John Mayberry, Jr. $1.45 million to hit .164/.227/.318 in 59 games. Wouldn’t the Mets be better served by giving Tejada that money to hit .261/.338/.350 in 116 games. Isn’t it better to keep Tejada around if he can’t be a free agent until 2018? Are we really to believe this money is what is going to stand between the Mets getting that one key player?
If $1 million stands in the way of anything, this team isn’t serious about adding payroll or competing. Yet again, they will not be serious about building a competent major league bench. This just exposes Sandy’s biggest weakness. It’s not just the ability to build a bench.
It’s the payroll given to him year in and year out to build a contender.
In 2013, the Red Sox signed Stephen Drew to a one year deal. In that year, Drew presumably built up his value in a year the Red Sox won the World Series. The Red Sox and Drew at least thought so. The Red Sox offered him a Qualifying Offer, and Drew rejected it. His career has never been the same.
Drew just kept on waiting for a deal commensurate with his perceived value. He waited and waited and waited. He waited into the 2014 season. At that point the Red Sox knew no one was signing him, so they were not going to get draft pick compensation. They had injuries and a need for an infielder. They brought Drew back on a prorated portion of the Qualifying Offer.
He wasn’t good, and he hadn’t been good since. In 2014, he hit .162/.237/.299 in 85 games. He was so poor the Red Sox had no problem trading him to a Yankee team still hoping to make the playoffs. In 2015, the Yankees brought him back to play second. He hit .201/.271/.381 in 131 games. If he’s been this bad, why should the Mets sign him?
For starters, he’s a left handed bat that can be plugged into the middle infield. For his career, Drew hits righties to the tune of .260/.329/.436. While he had a disappointing year last year, he did hit 17 home runs with 14 coming against righties. Only nine of the homers were at Yankee Stadium, so it’s not like he’s completely a creation of that bandbox.
He’s also been a decent fielder. The last three years he’s recorded UZRs of 5.3, 3.0, and -0.6. In a full season at second last year, his UZR was -0.2. Basically, if he played for the 2015 Mets, he clearly would’ve been their best defensive middle infielder.
No, I’m not expecting him to be an everyday player. He’s going to be 33 years old next year. His best baseball is behind him. At best, I think he’s a platoon player at either second or short. He allows Dilson Herrera extra time in the minors if needed. He’s an insurance policy against Ruben Tejada‘s injured leg. He’s also bound to come cheap.
Honestly, I can’t imagine it would take more than a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training to obtain Drew. If that’s the case, it’s a no lose proposition. If he’s terrible or the younger players are ready, cut him or send him to the minors as an insurance policy. If he’s good or the younger players aren’t ready, you have a player who can contribute next year.
With the available free agents and the Mets budgetary constraints, these are the type of signings that will be most likely for the middle infield.
Simply put, the free agent market for shortstops isn’t good when there is no clear-cut upgrade over Wilmer Flores. Accordingly, the Mets will probably have to get creative if they want a new shortstop.
With the Reds having a fire sale, there is plenty available. They have quality major leaguers at a number of positions. Of all of these players, the most expendable and easy to obtain player should be Zack Cozart. Due to his injury last year, the Reds saw their shortstop of the future, Eugenio Suarez, play everyday and earn a spot as the Opening Day shortstop in 2016.
Cozart would be an interesting addition for the Mets. For a team looking to add offense this season, he’s a player whose value is almost solely derived from his defense. It better be because he’s not a good hitter, not even in a hitter’s park like the Great American Ballpark. He’s a career .245/.284/.375 hitter with an OPS+ of 79. That’s bad. To put it in perspective, Juan Lagares struggled at the plate last year, and his OPS+ was 80.
So if the Mets are adding Cozart, they will be adding him solely for his defense. During his five year career, his average UZR is 6.5, which means he’s above average. Not great, but above average. If you remove his injury shortened 2015, the average rises to a 7.6, which is better, but it still does not put him in any Gold Glove discussions.
It’s a risk even before taking his knee injury into account. He’s also a terrible hitter who probably doesn’t have the glove to justify the bat. So why take a risk? Easy, he’s going to come cheap. That’s important for a team with limited resources.
Assuming he’s tendered a contract by the Reds, he’s projected to make $2.9 million. With Ruben Tejada also on the mend, the Mets could carry both of these players into the spring, and see who is healthier and/or better. If Cozart reaches his potential, he may one day become a Gold Glover. If he can’t play, the Mets can simply cut him before the start of the season. It that case the Mets would owe either him or Tejada 30-45 days of salary.
Ideally, the Mets should wait for Cozart to be non-tendered. If he’s not, it would be prudent to add him to the shortstop mix.