Jon Niese
Like most people, I like to play the projection game going into a season. I’m curious what other people think about the Mets. A vast majority of us are really using gut instinct and intuition to make these judgments. A site like Fangraphs uses hard data to arrive at their projections.
While much attention has been made about the projected standings, not at lot of attention has been paid to the different drivers to that calculation. Specifically, I’m referring to the Mets decision to trade Jon Niese for Neil Walker. At least according to Fangraphs, the way too early returns on this trade are not good for the Mets. It’s not the whole reason, but it’s at least part of the reason they are projected to finish behind the Nationals.
Let’s start at the switch from Murphy to Walker. Last year, Murphy hit .281/.322/.449. In his career, he’s a .288/.331/.424 hitter. He’s played most of his career with Citi Field as his home park. Last year, he worked with Kevin Long and saw some increased power. His replacement, Walker, is projected to hit .258/.329/.427. Essentially, Fangraphs sees Walker as a downgrade from what the Mets previously had offensively at second base. They see Walker as a downgrade from a player who really wanted to return to the Mets.
As we know, the side effect of the Walker trade was Murphy signing with the Nationals. Now that he’s away from Citi Field, he’s projected to hit .308/.351/.440. Effectively, Murphy is taking the place of Ian Desmond because Danny Espinosa is moving from second to short. Desmond hit .233/.290/.384. By the Mets not re-signing Murphy, it allowed the Nationals to do so, and as a result, their 2016 team projects to be a lot better than the 2015 version.
Sure, you could argue Murphy’s projected 2.3 WAR isn’t significantly better than Walker’s 2.2 WAR. This does neglect the fact that the Mets could’ve had Murphy for nothing. They had to give up Jon Niese for him. Niese has a reasonable, team friendly contract with team options for $10 and $11 million respectively in 2017 and 2018. Niese was a big trade chip. They used it on Walker, who isn’t even an upgrade.
Don’t believe me? Consider this. For his career, Niese has a 3.91 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 7.0 K/9. Wei-Yin Chen has a career 3.72 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and a 7.0 K/9. Both are left-handed. Both put up similar stats. Niese is 29, and Chen is 30. Chen just received a five year $80 million deal. Niese makes $9 million this year. If he gets injured, a team can walk away. If Niese is good, a team has him on a two year $20 million deal. Niese’s production and his contract carry a lot of value.
The Mets used Niese and didn’t even upgrade at second. They treaded water. Their old second baseman has gone to the Mets main competition in the NL East and has made them markedly better. To make matters worse, the Mets don’t have Niese to use as a trade chip for a big bat this year. Instead, they have the 42 year old Bartolo Colon, who has next to no trade value next year. This leaves the Mets hoping everyone outplays their predicted production.
As a result, the very early returns suggest the Mets made a bad trade and will regret losing Daniel Murphy.
Editor’s Note: this article also ran on metsmerizedonline.com
Perhaps, the Mets biggest free agent remains unsigned. No, not Yoenis Cespedes. I’m of course referring to Keith Hernandez. As Adam Rubin reported, Keith remains unsigned. Most people expect him to return. I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t.
We know this isn’t the first time it was rumored that Keith was leaving SNY. There was his infamous 2009 sign-off where he hinted he may not return. As we know, Keith returned, and he has been a part of the Gary, Keith, and Ron (GKR) booth ever since. So, why is this time any different?
For starters, we had the Bobby Ojeda situation last year. Every Mets fan seemed to enjoy his work. I believe that was because Ojeda didn’t mince words. He called it as he saw it. Mets fans appreciated it regardless of whether we agreed with him or not. Unsurprisingly, it was reported the issue was money. Ojeda was replaced with Nelson Figueroa, who was presumably cheaper and definitively less critical.
We don’t currently know what the reason why Keith’s deal hasn’t been completed. We also know this isn’t the first time this offseason it was rumored the GKR booth was breaking up. There were the rumors Ron Darling may be poached by NESN to call Red Sox games. It turns out there was nothing to the rumors as Ron never had any conversations with NESN. I still question how those rumors arose.
What we do know is the Mets have been penny pinching this offseason. Instead of $12.5 million a year for Daniel Murphy, it’s around $9 million for Neil Walker. Instead of $9 million for Jon Niese, it’s $7.25 million for Bartolo Colon. Free agent Tyler Clippard earned $8.3 million last year, but the Mets did bring back Jerry Blevins for $4 million. Then there’s every Mets fans’ favorite, Cespedes was paid $10.5 million last year, and he remains unsigned (he seems to want double that). In his stead is the $5.75 million Alejandro De Aza. The total savings of those moves is $14.3 million.
Sure, I didn’t include the $8.25 million to Asdrubal Cabrera. That would reduce savings to $6.05 million. However, I also didn’t include the retirement of Michael Cuddyer, which took $12.5 million off the books. In total, that’s $18.55 million in savings. The Mets have increased revenues and attendance, and yet, they’re still cutting corners. Put aside your feelings on the wisdom of these moves, it’s fair to say the Mets saved money in each mechanation.
With that in mind, why should we feel the Wilpons will act differently with SNY? They already did it with Ojeda. Is Keith really immune to cost cutting measures? I’d argue no, and admittedly fans are partially to blame.
Be honest with yourself. If Keith is gone, will you stop watching Mets games in 2016? Of course not. You’re watching them to see if they can go back to the World Series. As we all know, there is higher attendance figures and higher ratings when a team is good. The Mets could hire Joe Buck and Bobby Bonilla to call the games, and you’d still watch. It may be on mute, but you’d still watch.
That’s the reason I wouldn’t be surprised if Keith wasn’t re-signed. The Mets are good again. SNY doesn’t need GKR to help drive ratings. They have a good team to do that. With all that said, I still believe Keith will be back next year.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if he wasn’t.
If you’ve read Andy Martino’s Winter Meetings article, there’s a lot to digest. There’s many ways to go, but first I wanted to address the Asdrubal Cabrera situation.
As you well know, the Mets acquired Cabrera. Depending on your point-of-view, Cabrera may or may not be an upgrade at shortstop. He’s a weaker defender. You’re relying on a good second half being a sign that he’s ready to overcome his struggles of the past five seasons. For all that, the Mets signed him to a two year $18.5 million contract. It’s a contract that might’ve depended on what Ben Zobrist did.
Supposedly, the Mets were willing to sign Zobrist to a four year $60 million contract. That would’ve been an average annual value of $15 million per year. This is what the Mets conveyed to Zobrist’s agent, Alan Nero, who coincidentally represents Cabrera. The Mets talked about both players with the agent. However, pay careful attention to this quote:
Before Zobrist made his decision, [Assistant GM John] Ricco felt he had to approach the pursuit of Cabrera delicately. The Mets needed to appear interested, but not so much that Nero thought they were turning away from Zobrist. Now, with that barrier lifted, Ricco and his group go hard after Cabrera, offering a two year, $18.5 million deal, and landing him that night. The process is simple: Will you take our money? Yes? Great, we have a deal.
I’m sure there are a number of ways to reasonably interpret that statement. Personally, I interpret it as the Mets didn’t have $24+ million in their budget, at least not for the middle infield. From the beginning of their conversations, Cabrera was a fallback option.
As Mets fans, we were informed if attendance increased than payroll would increase. Well, attendance increased. As a result, the Mets revenue increased somewhere between $45 – 60 million. Now, before the Mets made any moves, their projected payroll was going to be around $92 million. Adding $24 million to the middle infield would’ve increased the payroll to $116 million.
Keep in mind with that $116 million payroll, the Mets infield and rotation would’ve been locked down. You could’ve justified not pursuing a Yoenis Cespedes because you would’ve shown to everyone, let alone your fan base, that:
- The Mets were willing to outbid everyone to get the most coveted free agent on the market;
- You were willing to spend to address what you saw as a position of need; and
- You would’ve actually increased the payroll.
After having minimum $45 million in extra revenue, Cabrera should not have been contingent on Zobrist. The Mets should’ve been able to bring in both players. Either they are still facing budget constraints from the Madoff scandal, or the team doesn’t feel compelled to have a league average payroll despite whatever promises were made.
In any event, the Mets fans have been lied to by this team. It’s not alright. Attendance and revenues significantly increased. There will be a modest increase in payroll. This should make you question everything they do this offseason. Was Neil Walker really an improvement over Daniel Murphy, or is the team just selling that to us? Did the Mets trade Jon Niese because it was a reasonable deal, or was it because they needed to shed some payroll to have enough room for Walker and Cabrera?
I just look forward to the next free agent move, if there will be one. I’m curious how they’ll sell it to the fans. I wonder how much there’s left in the budget. These questions are more than reasonable and fair after reading this article.
Today, Michael Mayer broke yet another big Mets story. This time it was the Mets re-signing Bartolo Colon to a one year $7.25 million contract. Most Mets fans rejoiced. Personally, I don’t get the love affair.
When I look at Colon’s Mets career, I see an ERA+ of 86, which means he was below average. He had a 4.13 ERA while pitching half his games in a pitcher’s park. The best argument you could make for his Mets career is: (1) he had an average FIP of 3.77; and (2) he didn’t miss a start. Why is it a player who’s average at best a folk hero? It has to be more than this play:
Maybe it’s because of at bats like this, but I can’t imagine why:
Fact is, he’s not even that good. He’s not going to be any younger. Next year, he’s going to be 43 years old. Why would you want him over Jon Niese? Niese was at minimum just as good as Colon. More likely he was better and will be better next year at 29. He also showed himself more capable in the bullpen that Colon. Throw in the two extra years of control Niese has, and you’ve downgraded your rotation and possibly your bullpen.
Fair or not, I’ll remember Colon’s failings in the World Series. In Game 1, he walked a tightrope walk for two innings before imploding in his third inning of work earning the loss in a very frustrating game. In Game 5, he entered the game to clean up Addison Reed‘s mess. The Mets were down 4-2, and the bases were loaded with one out. Colon would allow a bases clearing double to the first batter he faced putting the game and World Series out of reach.
I don’t blame Colon for all that happened in the World Series. He may not have been put in the best position to succeed. Fact is, he didn’t succeed. I don’t hold it against him. However, I do look at it and ask why is this 43 year old pitched so revered? If the same thing happened to Niese, the fans would’ve ran him out of town. Colon? It’s like it never happened. I just don’t get it.
Someone please explain it to me.
It was unofficial for quite some time, but it finally happened. Dillon Gee is an ex-Met. I’m still not 100% sure how or why this happened.
Gee’s entire career might be the one positive contribution from Jerry Manuel. Manuel like him, and it gave someone who wasn’t a big prospect a chance. Gee took advantage of his chance. In his first call-up he went 2-2 in five starts with a 2.18 ERA and a 1.212 WHIP.
In 2014, he was named the Opening Day starter. This was in part due to the Mets options at the time. It was also a testament to Gee’s resiliency. Just two years prior, he needed surgery to repair an aneurysm in his throwing shoulder. From 2010 – 2014, Gee would go 40-34 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP. Every so often, he’d threaten to be the first Met to throw a no-hitter. Not bad for a guy who got guys out with locating his pitches. Not bad for a guy who had a sub 90s fastball.
Unfortunately, it just didn’t happen for Gee this year. It’s a shame because he was a winner on Mets teams that were losing. He deserved a chance to go out a winner. Instead he pitched sporadically, had constantly changing roles without notice, and he suffered a groin strain. They never recall him. They gave his number to someone else. Instead of sticking by him, the Mets designated him for assignment. While the Mets were making a World Series run, Gee was no longer a free agent. He was a class act about it:
Congrats @Mets. So happy fo yall. First offseason I'll actually want to watch baseball. Can't wait!!
— Dillon Gee (@DillonGee35) September 26, 2015
Congrats boys! #NLPennant #WorldSeries2015 @Mets
— Dillon Gee (@DillonGee35) October 22, 2015
Gee is now a member of the Royals organization. The team that just won the World Series with character guys got another one. The Mets will feel his loss. After the Jon Niese–Neil Walker trade, the Mets need a fifth starter. The common response is the Mets should bring back 42 year old Bartolo Colon.
I’d rather have Gee back. He gave the Mets everything he had each and every time he toed the rubber. In many ways, he was never supposed to be a Met and/or a major leaguer. He took that with him to the mound every time. He deserved better than how he was treated in 2015. I hope he gets that better treatment next year with the Royals.
Thank you for your time with the Mets.
I am reminded of being in the seventh grade. I grew a lot, especially my feet. It must’ve been beyond annoying and expensive for my parents. My mother always insisted on good footwear. My father on the other hand always looked for a deal.
We went to Fayva Shoes (remember that place?). There was some insane sale where if you purchased one shoe, you got the next one half off. The strange thing about this sale was if you got a third it was half-off the half-off price (for example, a $20 sneaker cost $5). Basically, every sneaker after the first one followed this computation.
Anyway, my father made me pick out a shoe that I liked (or hated least). He then literally purchased that sneaker in every half size up to a size 13. His theory was he’d never have to buy me another sneaker again. Plus, he got me a sneaker that cost $0.30. Not an exaggeration. Side note to this story is his plan never would’ve worked as my feet are about a size 14.
Guess how well this worked out? C’mon, we were able to purchase a sneaker for $0.30. They were flimsy sneakers. I was playing football, juked, rolled my ankle, and broke my foot. We may have had a sneaker that cost $0.30, but now there was also medical bills. It was penny wise, pound foolish.
The Neil Walker trade is the Mets $0.30 pair of sneakers. We can reasonably argue over whether Walker or Daniel Murphy is the better player. You want to tell me it’s Walker, fine. However, as a result of obtaining Walker for Niese, the Mets now have to look to acquire a fifth starter. By the way, you’re looking for a fifth starter who will agree to only pitch for half the year because at that point Zack Wheeler will return. Good luck with that.
I know Murphy is a free agent, but Ben Zobrist‘s deal was for an average annual value of $14 million a year. Murphy will probably get $2 million less a year than Zobrist. Yes, it would probably be $2 million more than Walker will receive in arbitration. However, Murphy can serve as insurance for David Wright‘s back, whereas Walker can’t.
Sure, the Mets did sign Asdrubal Cabrera. Whether you like the move or not, we should all be able to agree $12 million to Murphy and $9 million to Niese shouldn’t have precluded that signing especially since the Mets aren’t pursuing Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes. Instead, the Mets need to convince a starting pitcher to start for only half a year and an everyday player to accept being in a centerfield platoon with Juan Lagares.
This is ultimately why the Walker deal was a bad trade. The Mets weakened themselves in the rotation without a clear cut replacement in a market where pitchers are getting big deals. Ultimately, the Walker deal had to be about money as he and Niese are going to make similar money, give or take a million.
My $0.30 sneakers? Well, they would have to donated, i.e. we got rid of them. That’s what the Mets will do with Walker after this year. I just hope Walker will be a better fit before he’s gone.
Going into last year, the Mets were well noted for their organizational pitching depth. It wasn’t just the pitchers that were in the majors, but it was also the pitchers on the way. The thought process was the Mets could select the pitchers to keep to help the rotation and trade the others for a bat.
Well, the Mets are going into the 2016 season, and their depth isn’t the same as this regime seems comfortable jettisoning this team’s pitching depth. A large part of the reason was the unwillingness and/or inability to spend in the offseason last year. Here is the list of pitchers gone from the Mets organization:
- Greg Peavey
- Randy Fontanez
- Cory Mazzoni
- Brad Wieck
- Casey Meisner
- John Gant
- Robert Whalen
- Michael Fulmer
- Luis Cessa
- Matt Koch
- Miller Diaz
- Dawrin Frias
- Jack Leathersich
- Jon Niese
- Matthew Bowman
This list doesn’t include Logan Verrett, who was selected in last year Rule 5 draft and returned. It also doesn’t include Tyler Clippard, Bartolo Colon, Eric O’Flaherty, Bobby Parnell, and Alex Torres because, at least in theory, they all could return to the Mets next year. In any event, that’s a lot of pitchers gone and/or potentially gone from the 2014 Winter Meetings and the 2015 Winter Meetings.
After losing all these pitchers, the Mets only have two . . . TWO . . . players on their 2016 major league roster resulting from these moves: Addison Reed and Neil Walker. Also, the Mets still need a fifth starter and possibly bullpen help. You would think after losing 15 pitchers in a year, you’d be in a better position.
Now, the important caveat here is not all of these pitchers are of the same caliber. For example, Peavey and Fontanez were selected in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft. Also, I did defend the trade that brought in Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson. On the flip side, I did not like the trades which brought in Clippard and Yoenis Cespedes.
I’m not in the crowd that justifies these deals due to the Mets winning the pennant. You win the World Series, you’re untouchable because you did what was necessary. However, the Mets lost all that pitching and still fell short. Think of it another way. Do you think the Tigers would’ve traded winning the AL East for John Smoltz‘ career?
With all that said, the Mets still deserve some credit here. Even though they lost all that pitching, they still have good pitching prospects like Robert Gsellman. I just wish they spent more money last offseason and kept some of those pitchers to give them more options to make deals this winter or this upcoming summer.
Keep in mind that sooner or later losing all this pitching will eventually catch up with them. I’m not looking forward to the day that happens.
You know Jon Niese never made it easy, did he? He was at times cantankerous. He seemingly always had a chip on his shoulder. He was no different on his way out the door:
Jon Niese: “I’m sure what I’ll appreciate more than anything is the way (#Pirates) play defense. I’m looking forward to that.”
— RobBiertempfel (@RobBiertempfel) December 10, 2015
Was it a shot at the Mets for trading him? Who knows? He once fought with Terry Collins in the dugout (not physically). He blamed a poor start on Travis d’Arnaud. Personally, I’d like to think this was all part of him being a fiery competitor. I didn’t always think this way. My opinion changed when he approached Collins to join the bullpen.
The story with Niese was he was born on the date the Mets last won the World Series. He came to the team and offered to do whatever it took to help them win another. He acted like a player who lived through the last collapse and finally got a chance to pitch in the postseason. I think most Mets fans thought he would whine and demand the ball. Instead, he just said he wanted to help.
He was terrific. He helped the Mets solve an issue they had all year. They never had a lefty in the pen. It became Niese, and he pitched well. Other than this run, Niese was known for his attitude, troubles in the sixth inning, and Carlos Beltran paying for his nose job. Now, he’s also known for Celebratory Slip ‘N Slides.
For me, I remember Niese for this blog’s first big break. The piece about the birth of Niese’s child got this blog noticed by the great Faith and Fear in Flushing with a link on the website. If you’ve come across this site, please repay the favor by buying his new book. You know it’ll be terrific, so just go ahead and buy it. I digress.
Anyway, part of the success of this blog is attributable to Niese. Part of the run to the World Series was attributable to Niese. These may be two things I never thought would come true, but they did. Now Niese is in Pittsburg with a pitching coach that’s really going to turn his career around, and it’s quite possible he’ll make the Mets look bad for giving up on him.
In a small way, I hope he does. With his pitching this postseason, he earned well wishes from Mets fans. It’s great that he’s closer to his boyhood home in Ohio. Overall, i wish him and his growing family well.
I remember back when Jose Reyes left the Mets for the Marlins. I was angry. The Mets were in the beginning stages of the Madoff fallout, and Reyes was the first casualty of that.
After the Reyes’ signing, the Mets proceeded to become curiously active the next day. The Mets signed Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco. They also traded Angel Pagan for Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres. Sure, the Mets lost their homegrown All Star shortstop, but look over here, look at the flurry of moves. Nothing to see in Miami. We’re having a press conference on SNY to announce the addition of FOUR . . . count them . . . FOUR NEW PLAYERS! The Mets would be terrible in 2012 finishing in fourth place with a 74-88 record.
Today had that type of feel to me. The Mets lost Ben Zobrist to the Cubs, and they didn’t look particularly good in the process. So naturally, the Mets went back to what they do best: deflection. Instead of rebuilding their bullpen, they rebuilt their middle infield by trading for Neil Walker and signing Asdrubal Cabrera.
Now, I have said both of these players were worth investigating. However, I would’ve preferred keeping Daniel Murphy and Jon Niese over adding Walker. In that scenario, the Mets still could’ve added Cabrera. Right now, I’d probably be commenting how the Mets vastly improved their middle infield situation. Instead, I’m baffled how the Mets traded away another pitcher while adding a poor defensive SS on a two year deal.
I’ll admit I was distracted a little bit four years ago. I wasn’t the biggest Angel Pagan fan. Now, I’m just wondering why the cost saving moves instead of bringing back the NLCS MVP. I’m also curious as to why an organization that values OBP added low OBP players. I’m nonplussed at the Mets adding yet another steroids guy to the roster.
I would’ve accepted all of it if the Mets were made better in the process. However, they didn’t. They’re worse off defensively, and they lost a reasonably priced starting pitcher. I just see the same bluster I saw four years ago.
It leaves me feeling sad. My son’s favorite player will be playing elsewhere next year. He’s disappointed to say the least. There’s nothing the Mets can do to make me forget that.
Put Eric O’Flaherty aside. The last free agent the Mets should be interested in bringing back is Bartolo Colon, and yet here we are:
Mets and Blevins still have mutual interest in reunion; same with Bartolo in swing man role. interest in bringing him back.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) December 6, 2015
Yoenis Cespedes may not be a true CF, but he’s got power, and he’s shown he can thrive in New York. Daniel Murphy may not be the best defender, but he’s versatile. He also comes up big in the big moments. There are roles for these players even if they are not perfect players. What’s Colon’s role?
He’s not the fifth starter. That spot is being presumably held by Jon Niese until Zack Wheeler‘s rehab is complete. Why would the Mets make him the long man? Carlos Torres and Sean Gilmartin are much cheaper alternatives who have succeeded in that role. What’s his role?
Do we really want to see him back with the Mets? Do we trust Terry Collins having him in the bullpen? Collins has already showed an over reliance on him over younger and better relievers. Put that all aside, do we even know if Colon at the age of 43 can manage being a reliever? Is this really the best use of the Mets resources?
It’s time to move away from Colon and sign a player that can fulfill an actual need.