Growing up, watching those 80’s teams I remember going to a game or two when Gary Carter would get out from behind the plate and play on the field. It was a way to give him a day off while keeping his bat in the lineup.
I was thinking of that when I saw a report the Mets were not considering moving either Travis d’Arnaud or Kevin Plawecki out from behind the plate. Personally, I agree that they both help the Mets as catchers. d’Arnaud has hit well, especially for a catcher, while Plawecki has offensive potential. They are also excellent pitch framers. However, I still think it’s important d’Arnaud gets some work to let him play some games at third.
The Plawecki Reason
The first reason is Plawecki is still developing. You don’t want him languishing away on the bench as a backup for 162 game season.
Looking over the 2015 season, the catchers who caught most caught between 112 – 139 games this year. The average amount of games caught between them is about 125 games a season. This leaves Plawecki with only 37 games. If you could find another spot for d’Arnaud once a week, you could have Plawecki catch about two times per week. There’s 26 weeks in the MLB season. If Plawecki can play two games per well, that’ll get him an additional 15 games
It’s still not enough for a developing player, but it’s a lot better.
Injury Factor
d’Arnaud has been named the Mets 2014 and 2015 Opening Day catcher. He didn’t make it through either season without a trip to the DL.
In 2015, they were fluke injuries that landed him on the DL. One injury was a broken pinkie on a hit by pitch. The other was a strained elbow on a play at the plate. I don’t believe d’Arnaud is injury prone. However, it’s getting harder and harder to say that.
Truth is last year he had two separate DL stints costing him around 50 games. With a dismal Mets offense, they had to turn to Plawecki, especially with Anthony Recker and Johnny Monell doing nothing offensively. It’s that reason the Mets will use Plawecki as the backup next year. You don’t want to stunt Plawecki’s development, but d’Arnaud has a bat you don’t want to take out if the lineup.
The best solution is to allow d’Arnaud to play some games at another position to get him some at bats while letting him rest a bit by bit being behind the plate.
The David Wright Factor
Ultimately, I think the reason you let d’Arnaud play some third is because of David Wright. He can’t play more than four games in a row. Assuming he has to take off a game at least once a week, that’s 26 games. He still may need more than that as he re-adjusts to playing over 162 games.
When he returned, he had similar numbers to his whole career. Last year, he hit .289/.379/.434 (yes that includes the right games he played in April). For his career, he has hit .298/.377/.493. Sure, there’s less power, but he’s still a good hitter. It’s a bat they’ll miss when he’s not in the lineup. Right now, it seems the Mets have interest in bringing back Kelly Johnson as a utility player. Presumably, he will play the majority of games Wright doesn’t play.
Johnson is a career .251/.331/.424 hitter. Last year, he hit .250/.304/.414. d’Arnaud hit .268/.340/.485 last year. He’s a better hitter than Johnson. If you’re concerned about defense, Johnson isn’t exactly a Gold Glover. He’s average. There’s no reason d’Arnaud can’t be average out there with some work.
Overall
I think it would help d’Arnaud to stay healthy to get out from behind the plate. It would help Plawecki’s development to get some extra reps out there. It would help the Mets offense to have d’Arnaud’s bat out there when Wright can’t play. This move will help the Mets in 2016 and beyond.
Today was supposed to be the day I was able to put baseball aside for a little bit. Game 7 was supposed to be last night. However, I was reminded of the Mets blowing the World Series because:
Today is the day. Wake up and get your free A.M. Crunchwrap between 7-11 a.m. Rules: https://t.co/yyutdNEGEA pic.twitter.com/iNv9pDuaxY
— Taco Bell (@tacobell) November 5, 2015
The reason for the free AM crunch wraps? It’s because the Royals were able to steal a base during the World Series. The steal that got us free breakfast was Lorenzo Cain stealing second in the sixth inning of Game 1 of the World Series. He would score to bring the game to 3-2.
Overall, the Royals were 6/6 stealing bases off of Travis d’Arnaud in the World Series. This includes a whopping 4/4 in the deciding Game 5. It caused me to sarcastically text my Dad and brother during the game that when we say we wanted d’Arnaud to be like Mike Piazza this isn’t what we meant. Look, I know there are many elements to what causes stolen bases, but a catcher loses the benefit of the doubt when he can’t reach second base.
In any event, it’s hard to say the Mets lost the World Series because of d’Arnaud. There were so many different elements that it’s hard to point a finger at d’Arnaud. I also don’t think it’s a reason to move him out from behind the plate because he does everything else well.
He’s a terrific pitch framer, who makes sure his pitchers get that borderline strike call. As the stats suggest, his work behind the plate gets his pitcher not just the corner but a little off of it. Also, he’s a good hitter. His triple slash line this year was .268/.340/.485. To put that in perspective, another great Mets catcher, the late great Hall of Famer, Gary Carter, hit .262/.335/.439 for his career.
Is d’Arnaud as good as Piazza or Carter? No, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good catcher for the Mets. All he needs is a little health and to work on his throwing mechanics a bit. (Note: I’m not comparing him to Mackey Sasser. Not going to happen).
In any event, I had my AM crunch wrap courtesy of a stolen base in the World Series. A World Series the Mets should’ve won. Hopefully, I’ll have one next year because of a Juan Lagares‘ stolen base.
By any measure, the Mets had a pleasantly surprising run this year capturing the 2015 National League pennant. The 2015 Mets weren’t perfect. They had some holes to fill. On top of that, new holes were created by free agency. Can the Mets fill in those holes?
The answer to that question begins with another question – do the Mets actually have money to spend? There are reports out there that suggest they don’t despite the additional postseason revenue. There are various reasons why. However, as a Mets fan, all you care about is what can they spend. The answer may not be what you want to hear:
Alderson pegged this year's opening day payroll at $103M and said 2016's should be "somewhat" higher, with room to add at trade deadline.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) November 4, 2015
Now, the Mets 2015 payroll was $120.4 million. However, a significant portion of that was covered by insurance due to David Wright‘s back injury. By my estimation, the Mets saved about $10 million. If we back that out, it means the Mets paid roughly $110.4 million in salary. Given Sandy Alderson’s statements that the Mets payroll will increase from the 2015 Opening Day payroll of $103 million, we should see the 2016 Opening Day payroll to be around the $110 million it was at the end of last year.
Right now, the Mets payroll obligations are estimated to be at $92 million for 25 players. Note, not all of these players will be on the Opening Day payroll due to various reasons from trades to the fact that the list has eight relievers on it. However, if the Mets keep all of these players, they’re paying them regardless if they’re playing in New York or Las Vegas.
In any event, that means the Mets have roughly $18 million to build the major league roster. That may be a problem because the Mets have question marks at 2B, SS, and/or CF. They also need a versatile player that is competent enough at third to play there semi-regularly. Effectively, this puts an end to my relatively modest Daniel Murphy–Dexter Fowler–Kelly Johnson plan.
That’s problematic because all three were expected to get somewhat reasonable deals Murphy and Fowler were only pegged to get four year deals. It’s not like the plan was Jayson Hayward and Zack Greinke. The plan was Murphy and Fowler. It’s absurd and depressing when you think about it.
It’s even worse when you consider an elite young starting rotation is slated to be paid a combined $7.1 million or $3.9 million less than what they paid for Bartolo Colon last year. It’s worse when you consider there’s no need for a bullpen upgrade.
Honestly, after seeing that comment from Sandy Alderson, I felt deflated a bit. After a pennant, the Mets will not be able to address their issues. It means if their cheap young pitching keeps them in it again, they’ll have to grossly overpay again at the trading deadline.
I’m sorry, but this isn’t how a pennant winner responds to falling just short. This isn’t how a New York team should operate, especially in an uncapped sport. There is no reason the Opening a Day payroll can’t be at least $120 million, which by the way, would’ve ranked them 15th, middle of the pack, last year.
Now, I truly can’t get upset until I see what the Mets do this offseason. They very we may spend more than they’re alluding. The payroll may not significantly rise, but they could pull off some shrewd trades to offset that. With that said, I’m not too enthusiastic at the moment.
We were promised if attendance went up the Mets would spend. Attendance went way up. It’s time for the Mets to finally spend some money.
Remember when the Lakers were winning titles with Shaq and Kobe? They were unquestionably the stars of the team. However, what everyone was talking about after the victory parade was Mark Madsen:
Jonny Gomes took up the Madsen mantle at the victory parade:
Powerful speech. It almost made me forget he played in 12 games and had 34 at bats for the Royals this year. It almost made me forget he was left off the postseason roster. Put another way, Eric Campbell has a greater impact on the season.
Look, I’m all for fun and a little trash talk, but you have to earn that right. It’s not like Gomes was a long time Royal, or he was waiting for his first ring. It’s not like he had to sit and watch from the bench all year. He was a waiver wire August 31 acquisition that didn’t play.
He’s now going up and down the stage with an American flag like he’s Hacksaw Jim Duggan without the looks or brains. There were plenty of Royals there who actually contributed, but he was the spokesperson. Every Mets played should watch this as motivation not just for Opening Day, but also to win the 2016 World Series.
I can’t wait to hear Campbell’s speech in the Canyon of Heroes.
The Mets lost the World Series in large part due to the bullpen blowing three leads in the eighth inning or later. Normally, this would be a point of emphasis in the offseason, but I think there were more pressing issues there:
- There were errors that lead to those blown leads; and
- How the bullpen was deployed.
If these issues are not addressed, I’m not sure it matters if anyone is added to the bullpen. If they are resolved, the Mets have the makings of a terrific bullpen in 2016.
First and foremost, the Mets have a terrific closer in Jeurys Familia. He’s the rare closer that can come in and get a team out of a jam. He’s the rare closer that can go for more than three outs. He’s coming off a year in which he recorded 43 saves, 1.000 WHIP, and a 9.9 K/9. Just when we thought he couldn’t get any better, he developed the devastating splitter.
The issue becomes who will be the other six people in the bullpen. For the other six people you want a 7th inning guy, an 8th inning guy, a long man, and at least one lefty. That leaves you with two guys to either be an extra lefty, an extra long man, or preferably, just a good reliever.
8th Inning
Now, at the end of the year, everyone was clamoring for Addison Reed to replace Tyler Clippard in the 8th inning. It appears everyone will get their wish as the Mets look like they’ll keep Reed and let Clippard walk. As a Met, Reed had a 1.17 ERA with a 1.043 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. That’s elite, but it may also be unsustainable.
Reed has a career 4.01 ERA, 1.261 WHIP, and a 9.3 K/9. There could be many reasons for the improvement with the Mets. For starters, Reed improves as the year progresses. In April and May, his career ERA is over 4.00, but from August on it’s under 1.35. Ultimately, it’s great to have a reliever who gets better as the year goes on.
Furthermore, it’s nice having someone with closing experience so the Mets don’t have to overextend Familia during the regular season.
7th Inning
For me, this is obvious. The Mets need to go with Hansel Robles here. He’s a guy who has the ability to get lefties and righties out, and he can go for more than three outs.
In 2015, he had a 3.67 ERA with a 1.019 WHIP and a 10.2 K/9. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story. Once a rookie has pitched for a while, there is tape on him. Typically, this results in some struggles for the rookie until he adjusts. However, Robles got better as the year progressed. Here are his first and second half splits:
- First Half: 4.37 ERA with a 1.191 WHIP and a 7.9 K/9
- Second Half: 3.16 ERA with a 0.891 WHIP and a 12.1 K/9
Like Reed, he got stronger as the year progressed. His was criminally under utilized in a World Series that saw the Mets blow three late inning leads only to lose in extra innings. The Mets shouldn’t make the same mistake in 2016. It’s time to use Robles.
Long Man
Next to Familia closing, Sean Gilmartin being the long man is the biggest lock in the bullpen. He had a 2.67 ERA with a 1.186 WHIP and a 8.5 K/9. He took a strangle hold on this job, and there’s no reason to take it away from him.
LOOGYs
Going into the playoffs, this was the Mets biggest question mark. Fortunately, Jon Niese took over the role quite successfully. However, he will not be an option to re-join the bullpen until Zack Wheeler comes back from Tommy John surgery, which will not be until around the All Star break.
Speaking of injuries, that was the reason the Mets didn’t have a LOOGY. At different times, they had Jerry Blevins, Josh Edgin, Dario Alvarez, and Jack Leathersich go down with injuries. Blevins is free agent, but he’s a candidate to return. Alvarez should be healthy for Opening Day. The Mets also have intriguing prospect Josh Smoker.
There are plenty of viable options here. The Mets should be able to carry one or two LOOGYs from this group.
Remaining Options
After taking the above into account, there will be one or two remaining spots remaining. There are a number of viable candidates:
Erik Goeddel. He is injury prone, but he has good numbers. He had a 2.43 ERA with a 1.000 WHIP and a 9.2 K/9. Those are good mumbers. Numbers that were good enough to land him on the NLDS roster. He should be part of the 2016 bullpen.
Carlos Torres. There are many things you can say about Torres, but the most important one is he’s always available to take the ball. He has a career 4.26 ERA with a 1.357 WHIP and a 7.9 K/9. However, there is value in having someone that can take the ball.
Logan Verrett. He was all over the place last year. He was a starter and a reliever. He kept bouncing back and forth. It didn’t hurt his performance. He had a 3.03 ERA with a 0.879 WHIP and an 8.4 K/9. He should be in the mix.
Jenrry Mejia. He’s one more positive test away from his career being over. He won’t be available until around the All Star Break. He’s likely to be released, which is odd since the Mets haven’t had problems with steroids guys under the Sandy Alderson regime. If he isn’t released, he could help this team in the bullpen. Personally, I’d rather him gone.
Rafael Montero. There was a time the organization believed he was better than Jacob deGrom. When that proved to be false, he was placed in the bullpen to start 2015. The Mets did stretch him out to make go to a six man rotation. He got hurt, and he disappeared. Given the Mets rotation, if he’s going to help the Mets, it’s going to have to be in the bullpen.
Looking over all these options, there is no reason to go outside the organization for bullpen help. Except for Reed, these relievers are cheap, young, and talented. We don’t know the Mets financial situation, but we do know that even if there is no money to spend, the bullpen will be in great shape.
The best part is even if it isn’t, there’s many quality choices in reserve, and that’s just from the players we know.
There’s no nice way to put it. Juan Lagares did not have a good 2015. He took a step back offensively and defensively. He basically forced the Mets to go out and get Yoenis Cespedes and play him out of position.
The Mets made it work in July and August. However, when you play with fire you eventually get burned, and the Mets got burned in the World Series. It showed the need to have an actual centerfielder in centerfield. On the flip side, Lagares started to play much better in the postseason, even if he wasn’t all the way back defensively.
The Mets now have two options. They can go with Lagares or they can go out and sign someone. The argument for Lagares is:
- He was injured and may be better with an offseason to heal;
- Even in a down year, he was an above average defensive centerfielder; and
- He will have more time to work with Kevin Long to get better at the plate.
The argument against Lagares was he regressed in every way possible. He had real platoon splits, and if you can’t hit righties, you can’t play everyday in the majors. Also, this is a championship contending team. You need to be ready to compete day one, especially when you’ve lost your two biggest trade chips on rental players.
The cheapest option, and possibly the best, is to carry Kirk Nieuwenhuis as your 4th outfielder. After an abysmal 2015, he will be cheap. He’s also an every other year player:
- 2012 – .252/.315/.376
- 2013 – .189/.278/.337
- 2014 – .259/.346/.482
- 2015 – .195/.270/.375
Sometimes things don’t make sense. That goes doubly for every other year players, but it seems to be a thing. If it continues, Nieuwenhuis is primed to be better in 2016, which would be good news.
For all his faults, Nieuwenhuis is a useful player. He can play all three OF positions. He’s got some pop in his bat and some speed. Looking over his UZR, he grades out as average at all three positions (making him a much better CF than Cespedes). That’s important because very few big league teams carry a legitimate CF on the bench.
It’s important because if Lagares can’t hit righties again, the Mets need to figure something out quickly. We saw the platoon work in 2015, and it should in 2016:
- Lagares vs. Lefties – .279/.325/.427
- Nieuwenhuis vs. Righties – .245/.314/.423
The numbers aren’t tremendous, but keep in mind this comes with good to great defense. It also comes with a presumably improving Lagares and the good year Nieuwenhuis. Also, this is going to presumably come from the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup.
If the Mets don’t like these numbers, they have a baseline for external options. Right now, here are the free agent centerfielders:
- Rajai Davis career .269/.316/.387 hitter with a 3.4 UZR last year
- Dexter Fowler career .267/.363/.418 hitter with a -1.7 UZR last year
- Austin Jackson career .272/.333/.399 with a 7.5 UZR last year
- Justin Maxwell career .220/.303/.399 with a -1.6 UZR last year
- Colby Rasmus career .245/.313/.443 hitter with a 2.1 UZR last year
- Shane Robinson career .237/.302/.313 hitter with a 0.9 UZR last year
- Denard Span career .287/.352/.395 with a -4.9 UZR last year
- Drew Stubbs career .244/.313/.395 with a -0.2 UZR last year
Looking over the list, the only players that could be an improvement are Fowler, Jackson, or Span. I’ll address them in reverse order.
Span is the best offensive player of the group and could leadoff. He is projected to receive a three year $36 million offer. It’s 50/50 if he’ll receive a qualifying offer. However, in a large outfield, it is not wise to go with a centerfielder with poor range. He’s a definite no if he gets a qualifying offer. You do not want the Nationals getting your first round pick.
Jackson is the best defensive player. He is projected to receive a three year $30 million contract, but he probably won’t receive a qualifying offer. However, isn’t he essentially an older, more expensive Lagares? I’m not sure this is the way to go.
That leaves Fowler. The benefit of Fowler is he’s a switch hitting leadoff hitter. He’s in the middle of his prime. He just played well for a playoff team, even if he did not have a good postseason. He will receive a qualifying offer, and he’s projected to get a 4 year $56 million contract.
There’s no doubt in my mind Fowler would improve this team. Realistically, the Mets should be able to get him and re-sign Daniel Murphy, who is projected to receive 4 year $48 million contract. To put it in perspective, Fowler and Murphy are worth a combined $26 million a year or just $4 million more than what Cespedes is slated to receive. If the Mets have money, this is the way to go.
However, my Fowler/Murphy choice presumes they can sign them and give arbitration raises to everyone. If Fowler or Murphy prevents you from signing one pitcher, you go with Lagares. I’d be comfortable going that way.
Ultimately, centerfield is one of the positions the Mets can improve easily in 2016. If the Mets can’t bring in Fowler, they’ll need it to come from Lagares.
A large part of what happened in the second half of the season was the Mets obtaining Yoenis Cespedes. I’m not in the camp that the Mets wouldn’t have won the division without him. However, I do believe it prevented a dog fight for the division.
While it was a wild ride, it came at a cost. A huge cost. I remember being vilified for suggesting the Mets would not sign him. Now, it seems like after an awful World Series, fans are on board with the sentiment. There seems to be a multitude of reasons why people do or do not want Cespedes to come back to the Mets. For what it’s worth, it appears he will not return.
I know its academic, but it’s the right decision. There’s no room for him on the roster. Michael Conforto will be the everyday leftfielder. Curtis Granderson has two more years on his contract to be the rightfielder. The Mets are set at the corner outfield positions. As for centerfield, Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder. I know he played there for the Mets, but it wasn’t a great decision. It was a decision to increase offense.
Looking over his career, Cespedes has poor range in centerfield. His UZR in centerfield this year was a -3.2, which equates to being a below average centerfielder. It just wasn’t those lazy World Series plays, it was the entire second half. By the way, this was the worst he’s been in three years in centerfield. His prior UZRs were -1.3 and -1.7. It’s the reason three teams didn’t see him as a centerfielder. People didn’t notice it as much because he was impossibly hot at the plate.
Look at it this way, everyone jumped all over Juan Lagares for having a down year defensively. His UZR was 3.5, which equates to him being an above average centerfielder. So to get this straight, Lagares was bad, and Cespedes was good? No, Cespedes hit, and Lagares didn’t.
I do think Cespedes will continue to hit for power. In his four year career, his 162 game average is .271/.319/.486 with 30 homers and 106 RBI. Whether or not he’s a poor on base percentage player, he will continue to mash. That still doesn’t make him a CF. It makes him a terrific left fielder. The Mets have one of those.
So we should all thank Cespedes for what he’s done for this team because he won’t be back. It was a wild ride, and I wish him the best at his next stop.
As I noted before, it was not a good idea to spend your money on any 2015 postseason gear. Right now, it’s all on sale:
Today until 6p there is a sale on postseason merchandise in the merch tent on Mets plaza. Sale will continue all week in the Team Store.
— New York Mets (@Mets) November 2, 2015
The reason? It’s because the Mets lost the World Series. It’s because typically no one wants gear from the time their team lost. Right now when I look at postseason stuff, I think more about the Mets blowing three World Series games instead of Murphtober.
It’s why you don’t see Mets fans wearing 1999, 2000, or 2006 gear. It’s why the gear is on sale now. By the end of next season you will no longer see 2015 postseason gear. In the smallest of consolations, at least the World Series gear is terrible.
Hopefully, it will be much better next year when the Mets win the World Series. I guarantee it won’t go on sale right after the World Series ends. People will want to wear those forever.
Did you know the Mets are 10-1 to win the 2016 World Series? Did you know people are speculating that the Mets could do what the Royals just did? Really?
It’s too early to start this nonsense. People playing this game is the reason casinos and bookies made so much money. If the 2015 Mets return, I can see you taking the bet. If the 2016 Mets are a better team than the 2015 Mets on paper, I can see you taking the bet. However, it’s way too early to determine what will happen next year.
We have no idea what the Mets are going to do. We don’t know if the Mets have money to spend. The Mets got rid of their two best trade chips. Would it shock anyone to see the Opening Day double play combination be Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada? Would that combination give you confidence that the Mets can return to the playoffs let alone the World Series? Me neither.
With the pitching staff, it’s easy to get excited. However, it wasn’t enough in June and July. I need to see more before I get excited for 2016. I’m curious to see what will happen.
Goumg into last year, the Mets thought they had sufficiently addressed the offense by signing Michael Cuddyer to play LF and John Mayberry, Jr. to bat against lefties and pinch hit.
Well Mayberry was so bad he was released, and Cuddyer had a disappointing season even before the knee injury. Cuddyer hit .259/.309/.391 this year. He looked old and slow during the postseason. He will enter the 2016 as a $12.5 million bench player. Just keep that in mind as you watch the Mets moves this offseason.
The reason Cuddyer will be a bench player is Michael Conforto. Due to Cuddyer’s knee injury and a historicall inept offense, Conforto was called up to the majors from AA in late July. He would play in 56 games hitting .270/.335/.506 with 14 doubles, 9 homers, and 26 RBIs. Also, he was much better than advertised defensively:
In the limited time Conforto was with the Mets, his UZR was 7.5, which means he is an above average to great defensive left fielder. As he learns the position, he could one day compete for a Gold Glove. With an accurate arm like his, he may very well replace Curtis Granderson in a few years.
At the plate, we saw the promise he has, and how he’s delivering on that promise. This upcoming year, the Mets will make him an everyday player and not just a platoon player. He’s shown he can handle lefties and righties in the minors. We saw him do it in the World Series:
All postseason he took good at bats even if the results weren’t there. He did have three homeruns. One was in his first postseason at bat against Zack Greinke of all people.
Conforto has what it takes to be just not just a great hitter but a great overall player. If you had Conforto for the whole year, his numbers would’ve averaged out to .270/.335/.506 with 41 doubles, 26 homers, and 75 RBI. Those are All Star numbers. If Conforto improves just a little next year, he will be a star in this league. He will be the best player on the Mets.
He’s the reason no matter what the Mets do in the offseason, the biggest upgrade they make is in left field.