Yoenis Cespedes

Not This Murphy Garbage Now

There appears to be two types of Mets fans: (1) those who love Daniel Murphy; and (2) those who don’t. I’m in the former camp. Gary Cohen is in the latter (full audio). 

Now, it is way too early to do a postmortem on the Mets season. It’s too early. There’s still an important Game 5. However, I can’t fault Joe & Evan for addressing the topic with Gary Cohen. You don’t get him everyday, so when you get him, you want to address everything with him. That includes addressing the free agency situations of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy. 

I don’t disagree with Gary regarding how the Mets will treat the Cespedes and Murphy situations. I agree that neither one will be back. Where I disagree with Gary is his statements about Murphy. 

First, he called Murphy a “net negative.”  Frankly, that’s nonsense. I understand Murphy’s flaws. He’s not a high .OBP guy. He sometimes makes curious fielding and baserunning mistakes. However, calling Murphy a net negative is a gross overstatement. 

If you’re using WAR, he’s generally been between a 2.5 – 3.1 player, which means he’s a solid starter. That’s nothing to sneeze at. If you’re using weighted runs created, or wRC+, his range is between 107-126 in the years he’s been a starter meaning he’s an above average player. Basically, Murphy’s a good player; not a “net negative.”

My other dispute with Gary is that Wilmer Flores and/or Dilson Herrera can take Murphy’s spot. First of all neither of them is the hitter Murphy is now. Murphy is a career .288/.331/.424 hitter. This year he hit .281/.322/.449. This year Flores hit .263/.295/.408, and Herrera hit .211/.311/.367. These two are young (22 and 20 respectively) with potential, but they’re not in Murphy’s league as a hitter yet. 

This is a playoff team now. Next year regardless of their free agency maneuvers, they will be a possible contending team with their pitching staff. It would be better to have some proven hitters like Murphy. It would also be nice to have Murphy as an insurance policy.

This year the SS situation was never fully resolved. It seemed like Ruben Tejada finally wrestled the position away until Chase Utley‘s dirty “slide.”  It’s the second time he’s broken his right leg. Flores may be forced to play more SS than anyone would like next year. 

Also, who knows about David Wright?  The Mets want to limit him to four games in a row. That means you need someone capable of playing third base on a semi-regular basis. It would be preferable to have someone like Murphy who can move other there and competently play the position. 

That doesn’t mean I think the Mets should give Murphy a huge free agent deal. Rather, I would start by offering him the $15.8 million qualifying offer. If he accepts it, great. You have him for one year while you wait for Herrera to develop and you find out about Wright’s back over a 162 game season. It’s an expensive insurance policy, but it may be a necessary one. 

If he rejects it, you at least get a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere. Alternatively, it will limit is market allowing the Mets to negotiate with him on their terms. With all that said, I don’t want to be talking about this. I want to talk about his two homeruns this postseason. I want to talk about Game Five. I want to be talking about the NLCS. 

So, let’s focus on what’s important here. That’s Game Five. The only Murphy discussion now should be how he can help the Mets win that game. 

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Yotober Dominance

Mets fans had every reason to be pumped before the game. The fans came and they brought it tonight:

From the first pitch to the last pitch, the crowd was amazing. I loved the Mets pausing introductions when Utley was introduced to prolong the booing. This is what happens when the Mets haven’t been in the playoffs for nine years. It’s what happens when Chase Utley injures Ruben Tejada on a dirty slide. It’s what happens when Matt Harvey finally gets to start in October. 

After a smooth first, Harvey got into some trouble in the second. There were three soft singles, and Terry Collins brought in the corners with bases loaded and no out. Why?  No one knows. In any event, Yasmani Grandal hit an RBI single to right. If the infielders were properly positioned, it would’ve been a 3-6-3 double play. Because they weren’t, it was a single. 

The bases would clear on the single after a Curtis Granderson throwing error. It was 3-0 with a runner on second. Harvey struggled from that point forward, but he kept the Dodgers at bay. His final line was five innings, seven hits, three runs, two earned, two walks, and seven strikeouts. He kept the Mets in the game, and he gave them a chance to win. 

The Mets seized that opportunity. Everyone reached base at least once. Travis d’Arnaud got the Mets on the board with an RBI single in the bottom of the second. The Mets loaded the bases and Curtis Granderson came up to the plate. He hit a double off the wall clearing the bases giving the Mets a 4-3 lead. 

d’Arnaud would expand the lead with a third inning two run homer. The Mets would put the game away with a six run fourth capped by a massive three run Yoenis Cespedes homerun:

It’s officially Yotober. 

In total, the Mets put 14 runs on the board. They were lead by three big bats:

  1. Granderson 2-5 with two doubles and five RBIs;
  2. Cespedes 3-5 with three runs, one homerun, and three RBIs; and
  3. d’Arnaud 3-4 with three runs, one homerun, and three RBIs. 

The Mets also got big contributions from Wilmer Flores and Juan Lagares. Flores played well at short, and I’m not grading on a curve. Lagares went 1-3 with three runs, one double, and a walk. Neither player was thought to get any start in this series, and yet, due to extenuating circumstances, they came in and played extremely well. 

Essentially, none of the Dodgers played well. Trash talking lefty starter Brett Anderson only pitched three innings allowing seven hits and six earned. The Dodgers bullpen went five innings allowing six hits, seven earned, and, five walks. On top of that the Dodgers and/or Chase Utley were gutless in not putting him in the game. They couldn’t find a spot for him in a 13-7 loss. Pathetic. 
The Mets rallied around Ruben Tejada. The only downside was having to use Jeurys Familia after Erik Goeddel allowed three runs and couldn’t record one out. 

The Mets are a win away from the NLCS. They’re one win away from exacting revenge on the Dodgers for what Utley did to Tejada. I can’t wait to be there tomorrow. Lets Go Mets!

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Replays Show MLB Doesn’t Know the Rulebook

It all came down to the seventh inning. Terry Collins pushed Noah Syndergaard a little too far. Thor left the game after 6.1 innings with runners on first and third. 

Puzzlingly, Collins would bring on Bartolo Colon. Colon induced a ground ball, and Daniel Murphy made a nice play. He flipped the ball to Ruben Tejada, and I’m not sure what happened next:

You see, the umps ruled Chase Utley safe. No, seriously. They called him safe. You see Tejada missed the bag. It doesn’t matter that Utley didn’t touch the bag. It doesn’t matter he didn’t begin his slide until after the out call was made. MLB will pick and choose which rules they will enforce:

https://twitter.com/chisportsfan03/status/653057143520686080

Here’s another angle:

https://twitter.com/athwayoflife/status/653063091614183424

That’s right, if the rule was properly enforced, it’s an inning ending double play. Instead, Utley is ruled safe, and Tejada is done with a broken right fibula. 

Speaking of a double play, the umpires ruled that it was not a neighborhood play because Murphy’s throw pulled Tejada off the bag. No, seriously. The fact that Tejada thought he touched second and began to spin to throw to first wasn’t indicative that there was a double play chance. 

Yes, I know the Mets bullpen, lead by Addison Reed imploded. The bullpen was handed a 2-1 lead courtesy of Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto homeruns. The game ended there. It became a 5-2 loss. 

The Mets bullpen failed. The umpires failed. Replay failed. MLB failed. 

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deGrominant Start to the NLDS

Mets fans have been waiting nine years for this game. They were treated to a special, record setting game:

Everyone expected a pitcher’s duel, and both teams delivered. Clayton Kershaw pitched 6.2 innings allowing four hits, three earned (two were inherited runners scored), four walks, and 11 strikeouts. Jacob deGrom was better. He threw 121 pitches over seven innings. He allowed five hits, one intentional walk, and 13 strikeouts. He was Tom Seaver-esque:

This was the type of game if you have no rooting interest, you enjoy every minute of it. When you’re a Mets fan, you live and die with every pitch. It’s tense. It’s trying. It’s worth it.  I actually checked with my Dad to see if his defribulator was working. I took it that since he replied it was. 

Personally, I don’t think I was breathing until the seventh inning. deGrom and Kershaw, though dominant, were seemingly in trouble every inning. Michael Cuddyer, and his extra shoddy defense, made sure of that. 

Up until the seventh inning, the only run was from a fourth inning Daniel Murphy home run. It was a special moment. Murphy was first around for the second collapse in 2008. He’s the second longest tenured position player. He fought to be an everyday player. With one swing of the bat, he showed everyone he deserved this chance. 

Ironically, on a night the Mets sat Michael Conforto because of Kershaw, only the Mets lefties got hits off of Kershaw. However, the Mets batters did their job in the seventh. Lucas Duda walked. Ruben Tejada fought back from an 0-2 count to walk. After a deGrom sacrifice, Curtis Granderson battled to walk. The bases were loaded with two outs, and Mattingly panicked. 

He lifted Kershaw and brought in Pedro Baez. He looked nervous. He got David Wright to a full count, and Wright delivered with a two RBI single. I screamed and woke up the house. It was worth it. My celebration was something like this:

I breathed a little easier when Juan Lagares came in for Cuddyer shifting Yoenis Cespedes to left. Of course, Tyler Clippard allowed a run in the eighth giving me angina again. Terry Collins didn’t let it get out of control. He brought in Jeurys Familia, who got ended the rally, and earned the four out save preserving the Mets 3-1 victory. 

Overall, this night wasn’t about Murphy, or Wright, or the fans who waited nine years for this moment. This was about deGrom. He has answered every call in his career.  He was Rookie of the Year. He was an All Star. He earned this start, and he more than delivered. He was better than the Franchise. 

The Mets are up 1-0 in the series. Later tonight, we’re expecting another pitcher’s duel, and the Mets are sending out the hottest pitcher in baseball. I like the Mets chances. Lets Go Mets!

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Gold Glove Defensive Replacement

After a promising year last year, Juan Lagares had a down year. The Mets knew it was a problem, so they pulled the trigger on the Yoenis Cespedes trade. With the Dodgers lefties coming into this series, Terry Collins has elected to go with Michael Cuddyer over Lagares. 

However, that is only in the starting lineup. This is going to be a close series. When and if, the Mets get a lead, they’re going to have to protect it. This means defensive replacements and double switches. This will get more innings to the Mets incredible bullpen (which is their biggest advantage), and they will get better fielders out there. 

Getting Lagares into the game moves Cespedes to LF, where he is much better suited. It also puts Lagares in center, so he can do Lagares things:

In my heart of hearts, I know the Mets are going to need his defense. This year’s golden moment is going to be better than any play he made last year. 

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NLDS Prediction 

This past week I’ve mainly focused on the big pitchers because that’s where I think the series will be won and lost. 

While you can argue the best two pitchers in this series are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the Mets have historically performed slightly better than the rest of baseball against these two. I’m not sure that matters all that much because Kershaw and Greinke have pitched very well against the Mets. 

On the flip side, Noah Syndergaard is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now. He’s been close to unhittable for a month now. Additionally, Jacob deGrom has had a terrific year, and he pitched well while amped up. Finally, the Mets have a big advantage in the Game 3 matchup between Matt Harvey and Brett Anderson. Overall, as you can see the Dodgers and Mets pitching is a wash:

The biggest advantage for the Mets is their bullpen. So far this year, the Mets bullpen has been better. Additionally, it is comprised of relievers who can go multiple innings, if necessary, to put the game away. Therefore, the Mets don’t need to out duel Greinke and Kershaw. Rather, they just need to do their thing out there and let it become a bullpen game. 

No, I’m not counting on Kershaw performing as poorly as he had in past postseasons. I’m not expecting the Mets to completely neutralize Adrian Gonzalez. However, I am not discounting the Mets 4-3 record against the Dodgers.

I remember that the Mets won those games before David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud were healthy. I remember these games were before the Mets traded for Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson. I remember the Mets bullpen is even better with the additions of Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard. I remember the Mets have never lost a five game series or an NLDS game at home. 

During the regular season, the Mets showed they could pitch with the Dodgers. They showed they had enough offense to beat the Dodgers. Then, they got better pitching and significantly better hitting. 

I see the Mets earning a split in LA. I see Harvey winning Game 3. I see the Mets outlasting Kershaw who will be pitching on three days rest. I see the Mets bats taking advantage of the Dodgers bullpen. 

Mets in four. 

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Game Two Pitching Matchup

Yesterdsy, I looked at how the Mets fared against Clayton Kershaw. Game Two promises to have its own pitcher’s duel between Zack Greinke and Noah Syndergaard. 

That means if the Mets want/need to win Game Two, they will need to get some runs off of Greinke or get into the Dodgers bullpen. With that said, here’s how the Mets have fared against Greinke:

Starting Lineup

Curtis Granderson 10-52 with 2 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, and 11 Ks

David Wright 3-9 with 1 double and 2 Ks

Daniel Murphy 4-13 with 2 BBs and 1 K

Yoenis Cespedes 1-5 with 1 BB and 1 K

Lucas Duda 3-12 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BBs, and 4 Ks

Travis d’Arnaud 0-0

Michael Conforto 0-2 with 1 RBI and 1 K

Ruben Tejada 0-6 with 1 K

Combined 21-99 (.212 BA) with 5 BBs (.274 OBP), 3 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HRs (.343 slugging), 5 RBIs, and 21 Ks

Bench

Kevin Plawecki 2-6 with 1 double and 1 K
Wilmer Flores 3-8 with 1 K

Kelly Johnson 0-9

Michael Cuddyer 10-40 with 1 double, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 2 BBs, 10 Ks

Juan Lagares 1-8 with 1 HR, 3 RBIs, and 1 K

Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-5 with 1 K

Combined 17-76 (.224) with 2 BBs (.244 OBP), 2 doubles, 2 HRs (.329 slugging), 10 RBIs, and 14 Ks

Team Totals 38-175 (.217 BA) with 7 BBs (.241), 5 doubles, 2 triples, 4 HRS (.337 slugging), 15 RBIs, and 35 Ks

Obviously, the .215/.241/.337 line indicates the Mets don’t hit Greinke well, but then again who does?  Greinke has limited batters to .187/.231/.276 this year. So, the Mets do hit Greinke than the league as a whole. 

This goes especially for the top of the Mets lineup. Granderson, Wright, and Murphy have historically hit Greinke very well. If the Mets want to score runs, it’s going to have to start at the top. 

As far as Syndergaard goes, he’s only faced the Dodgers once, and it was at Dodger Stadium. In that game, he pitched six innings allowing two hits, one earned, two walks, and six strikeouts. He got a no decision, but the Mets went on to a 2-1 win. That game was against Kershaw. 

Thor is certainly capable of repeating that performance. In his last four starts, he’s had a 2.93 ERA, a 0.651 WHIP, and a 12.0 K/9.  In this stretch, he’s limited opposing hitters to .163/.188/.337. He’s the key to everything. He’s primed for this playoff run. 

It’s strange to say I’m confident the Mets can pull a game out against Greinke, but Thor gives me that confidence. I can’t wait for him to take the mound Saturday night. 

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Mets Against Kershaw

This series comes down to the Mets stud muffins against Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. There could be a lot of 2-1 and 1-0 games. After Kershaw’s last game against the Mets, it’s hard to believe they can even hit him. 

However, that game was in July. The Mets clean-up hitter was John Mayberry, Jr.  Since that time, the Mets have added Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud, and David Wright to the lineup.  Here’s how the current Mets lineup has fared against Kershaw: 

Starting Lineup 

Curtis Granderson 1-10, 1 BB, 1 K

David Wright 3-14, 1 double, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 2 Ks

Daniel Murphy 3-10 with an RBI

Yoenis Cespedes 0-3

Michael Cuddyer 4-16 with 2 RBIs and 3 Ks
Lucas Duda 1-10 with 1 BB and 7 Ks
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Ruben Tejada 5-14 with 3 BBs and 3 Ks
Combined 17-77 (.220 BA) with 9 BBs (.302 OBP), one double (.234 slugging), 4 RBIs, and 16 Ks

Bench

Wilmer Flores 3-6 with 1 RBI and 1 K
Kelly Johnson 3-15 with 1 HR, 2 RBIs and 5 Ks
Michael Conforto 0-0
Juan Lagares 0-7 with 1 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0-0
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Combined 6-31 (.194 BA & OBP) with a HR (.290 slugging), 3 RBIs, and 7 Ks

Team Totals 23-108 (.213 BA) with 9 BBs (.274 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.250 slugging), 7 RBIs, and 23 Ks. 

This season Kershaw allowed batters to hit .194/.237/.284. Therefore, arguably, the Mets as a team have hit Kershaw better than the rest of the league.  However, the truth really is Kershaw has dominated the Mets. 

Looking over the numbers, the Mets would be best served by sitting Duda, moving Murphy to 1B, and letting Flores play 2B. I’m not sure the Mets will do that. They se inclined to put Duda out there. 

This leaves the Mets hoping they can work the count to get to an awful Dodgers bullpen. The other Hope is Kershaw reverts to being a bad playoff pitcher. Kershaw is 1-5 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP. 

Either way, the Mets have as good a chance as anyone to beat Kershaw. 

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Does Uribe’s Injury Hurt the Mets?

Right now, it appears that Juan Uribe will miss the NLDS with torn cartilage in his rib cage. He won’t be on the roster, but the better question is, “Will the Mets miss him?”

Despite rumors to the contrary, Uribe is not a good postseason player. He’s hit .204/.241/.338 in 44 postseason games. As a Met, he’s hit .219/.301/.430 in 44 games.  He has hit lefties well going .272/.350/.543. As a pinch hitter, he’s 4-21 with a homer, four walks, and nine strikeouts. 

He’s 3-11 against Clayton Kershaw with a double, a homerun, and three strikeouts. He’s 5-20 against Zack Greinke with a double, a homerun, a walk, and a strikeout.  He’s 1-3 with a strikeout against Alex Wood. He’s 1-2 with a double against Brett Anderson. He’s never faced Kenly Jansen. 

Overall, Uribe has not been good with the Mets, even if he’s had his moments.  However, he wasn’t going to play in the NLDS even with all of the Dodgers’ lefties. The Mets are not going to sit Daniel Murphy. If they were inclined to sit Lucas Duda, Michael Cuddyer would play first with Juan Lagares in center and Yoenis Cespedes in left. At best, Uribe would be a pinch hitter. 

Whether or not he can play, Uribe still has an important role on this team. He has won two World Series. He’s a veteran leader. He keeps the clubhouse loose. I appreciate players feel more a part of a team while being able to play, but Uribe has shown he’s a special clubhouse guy. He’s needed in the dugout and in the clubhouse. 

So no, the Mets aren’t hurt by Uribe’s inability to play. That still doesn’t mean he’s not needed. 

UPDATE: Uribe is definitely out

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Re-Revised NLDS Roster

Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr.  I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad. 

With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection. 

Catchers

1. Travis d’Arnaud

2. Kevin Plawecki

Infielders

3. Lucas Duda

4. Daniel Murphy

5. David Wright

6. Ruben Tejada

7. Wilmer Flores

8. Kelly Johnson

Outfielders

9. Michael Conforto

10. Yoenis Cespedes

11. Curtis Granderson

12. Michael Cuddyer

13. Juan Lagares

14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis 

Starting Pitchers

15. Jacob deGrom

16. Noah Sundergaard

17. Matt Harvey

18. Bartolo Colon

Bullpen

19. Jeurys Familia

20. Addison Reed

21. Tyler Clippard

22. Hansel Robles

23. Jon Niese

24. Erik Goeddel

25. Sean Gilmartin

If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster. 

I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster. 

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