Noah Syndergaard
This past week I’ve mainly focused on the big pitchers because that’s where I think the series will be won and lost.
While you can argue the best two pitchers in this series are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the Mets have historically performed slightly better than the rest of baseball against these two. I’m not sure that matters all that much because Kershaw and Greinke have pitched very well against the Mets.
On the flip side, Noah Syndergaard is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now. He’s been close to unhittable for a month now. Additionally, Jacob deGrom has had a terrific year, and he pitched well while amped up. Finally, the Mets have a big advantage in the Game 3 matchup between Matt Harvey and Brett Anderson. Overall, as you can see the Dodgers and Mets pitching is a wash:
Love the graphic in this story. Look at how even Mets and Dodgers pitching staff were in 2015 http://t.co/OQUfNM7Si0
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 8, 2015
The biggest advantage for the Mets is their bullpen. So far this year, the Mets bullpen has been better. Additionally, it is comprised of relievers who can go multiple innings, if necessary, to put the game away. Therefore, the Mets don’t need to out duel Greinke and Kershaw. Rather, they just need to do their thing out there and let it become a bullpen game.
No, I’m not counting on Kershaw performing as poorly as he had in past postseasons. I’m not expecting the Mets to completely neutralize Adrian Gonzalez. However, I am not discounting the Mets 4-3 record against the Dodgers.
I remember that the Mets won those games before David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud were healthy. I remember these games were before the Mets traded for Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson. I remember the Mets bullpen is even better with the additions of Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard. I remember the Mets have never lost a five game series or an NLDS game at home.
During the regular season, the Mets showed they could pitch with the Dodgers. They showed they had enough offense to beat the Dodgers. Then, they got better pitching and significantly better hitting.
I see the Mets earning a split in LA. I see Harvey winning Game 3. I see the Mets outlasting Kershaw who will be pitching on three days rest. I see the Mets bats taking advantage of the Dodgers bullpen.
Mets in four.
The Mets seem close to setting the NLDS roster (my projections were on point), but there is still one major decision left. The Mets need to decide if they want to put Steven Matz or Sean Gilmartin on the roster. It’s a major decision.
In essence, the Mets are deciding between the pitcher they want to start Game Four and the last man in the bullpen. In reality, they hope that Matz doesn’t have to pitch (sweep), but they really don’t want Gilmartin pitching (starter knocked out early). Gilmartin flew to LA, and Matz flew to Florida. If Matz has a successful bullpen, he will be added to the roster. If not, it’s Gilmartin’s job.
Personally, I would go with Gilmartin regardless. Matz has proven to be injury prone, and his back injury had lingered. If he sleeps on it wrong again, he’s out until the World Series. There are other more practical reasons why I would prefer Gilmartin.
First, if the Mets are down 2-1 in the series, I want to see Jacob deGrom on short rest, as was previously suggested by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, over the Mets other options whether that pitcher be Matz or Bartolo Colon. If I’m going down, I’m going down with my best. This year it was deGrom. Noah Syndergaard can then start Game Five on normal rest.
Second, the Mets are carrying Colon and Jon Niese on the roster. That’s two starters in the bullpen. If your best shot of winning this series is going with the stud muffins, then Matz serves no purpose on the team. He’s had zero bullpen experience. With that said, if the Mets feel an extra reliever is needed, they should carry the guy who is actually a reliever. Gilmartin has been used in a myriad of ways. He’s the more valuable bullpen piece, even with the reverse splits.
Finally, Matz hasn’t pitched since September 24th, which will be 19 days between appearances. He’s going to be rusty. You don’t want a rusty pitcher pitching in a do-or-die game. Matz may be the Mets 4th best starter when healthy, but he hasn’t been. I think he can shake off the rust, but it’s only a guess. If you’re guessing at this time of the year, you’re tealky just gambling. You don’t gamble with Game Four.
I’d send Matz to Florida to join the taxi squad. If the Mets advance, you’ll have a much better idea if he’s capable of starting a game. If he is, put him on the NLCS roster. If he’s not, you can stick with Gilmartin, who is accustomed to sitting for stretches at a time.
I realize the Mets will go with Matz if they can. I just don’t think it’s the right time. I think his time is the NLCS. It’s Gilmartin’s time now.
For all my issues with Terry Collins, he’s shown himself to be a great presence in the clubhouse. He certainly showed himself to be that today with Matt Harvey missing the workout:
Here’s TC’s version of the Harvey Episode: pic.twitter.com/69xkGdDhhg
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) October 6, 2015
He tried to quash it. He tried to put an end to the story. As he said, “Its over. Done. End of story. Still pitching Game 3.” He said it wasn’t a big deal. That’s how a leader handles it.
Let’s see how David Wright handles his issues with Harvey. Let’s first visit the innings limit drama. On the day of the press conference, here’s how Wright treated Harvey:
Yup, Wright snubbed him for all to see exacerbating the story. After the snub was reported everywhere, Wright needed to change course, and he did:
David Wright had "a four-inning conversation" with Harvey yesterday in the dugout, per Collins. Mets consider the clubhouse aspect resolved.
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 7, 2015
That’s right. He had a four inning conversation in the dugout for all to see so everyone can praise him and forget his snub. The Mets then started winning, and Harvey announced he would pitch in the playoffs. All was forgotten until Harvey screwed up today. Wright’s response?
“I’m concerned with the guys who are here.” Are you kidding me? He could’ve squashed it. He could’ve said a million other things. He’s turning this into a Jeter/A-Rod type of situation. Instead, he gave the impression there’s a clubhouse problem. Collins is then answering questions about Harvey’s perception:
TC likes to say “perception is reality.” Here’s what he said about Harvey in that regard: pic.twitter.com/uBvk3U8vx9
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) October 6, 2015
Yes, this story is all Harvey’s fault. However, where was the Captain, the team leader, to step in and put an end to all of it? He was adding fuel to the fire while making sure everyone was at their assigned lunch seats.
Did that moment help Noah Syndergaard? Probably. However, I’m not sure how it helped the rookie to have that story leaked in Spring Training. All that happened there was Wright got to look like the Captain, and Thor got smacked down by everyone.
I don’t mean to beat up on Wright. He’s been a great Met, and I commend him for fighting to come back this year. However, that makes him a great player and a winner. It doesn’t make him a team leader, whether or not he is the Captain.
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
In actuality, these tickets were a birthday gift from my wife and son. My wife said she might be getting me tickets, and I requested a Sunday game so I might be able to bring my son into the field for the Mr. Met Dash.
I’m happy she picked the last game of the season. Tomorrow, I get to go to Citi Field and salute the improbable 2015 NL East Champions. Even after an ugly loss, the mood should still be jubilant. This team should be saluted for an incredible season. I’m happy that I’ll be able to get this snapshot to remember this year by.
The problem is that unless the Mets win the World Series, their year will end on a down note. I remember 1999 for the Kenny Rogers‘ walk. I remember 2000 for Timo Perez not running, Roger Clemens‘ [alleged] roid rage, and a Mike Piazza ball that did not travel quite far enough. I remember 2006 for the Adam Wainwright curveball.
It’s a shame because those were terrific Mets seasons. What they did is no small feat, especially for a franchise that has gone to the playoffs eight times in 53 years. I want to remember 2015 for more than just how the season ends, even if the Mets win the World Series.
There was the 11 game winning streak. There was the return of Matt Harvey from Tommy John surgery. There was the deGrominance of Jacob deGrom including his amazing All Star Game appearance. There was the amazing rookies seasons of Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto. There was “A Cespedes for the Rest of Us.” There was the David Wright homerun on his return from spinal stenosis.
On a personal note, it’s the year I finally came to love Citi Field. I brought my son to a few games. He got to meet Mr. Met TWICE! He got to play baseball. He had Shake Shack. He learned the Mets lineup. He watched games with me. He saw the Mets celebrate a division title. I may have loved the 1999 and 2006 teams more, but this has been my favorite season.
The Mets had a lot to do with it by winning. However, to me, this year has been about my son and I bonding over baseball. It started with a Spring Training Game with him imitating Gary Cohen’s excited, “LUCAS DUDA!” call. He’s learning the game. He loves the Mets.
I want to go to the game to celebrate all of that. The icing on the cake would be if we can run the bases. I know he will love it much like he loved this season. This is the last game of the year we can go to and just enjoy the day. We’re going to. I hope you will too. It was a great season.
Lets Go Mets!
The Mets have lost. Homefield advantage is not important. In fact, the Mets may be better off without it. These last three games are about getting ready for the playoffs.
When you look at today’s game through that prism. Today was a good day. Noah Syndergaard was dominant going seven innings allowing two hits, one earned, one walk, and 10 strikeouts. He looked ready to start Game Two of the NLDS no matter where it will be played.
Also important was no one got hurt or tweaked a bat. Yoenis Cespedes played. It’s too early to judge if there will be lingering effects from the bruises, but he did look alright out there.
Jon Niese came out of the bullpen and pitched himself in and out of trouble. In many ways that’s very encouraging because part of pitching out of the bullpen is getting out of trouble. Even better, Niese did not have a meltdown when he got in trouble.
So yes, I’m downplaying Daniel Murphy not turning a double play. I’m not giving much attention to Addison Reed giving up a go-ahead two run homerun to Bryce Harper. It was the first runs he’s allowed as a Met. It was a meaningless 3-1 loss. I’m focusing on the positive because the first time in nine years there’s something positive.
I’m more excited because Thor was dominant, and that’s what the Mets will need in the playoffs. I hope you are too.
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
In 2013, Michael Wacha burst on the scene in the playoffs, and it was declared “Wachtober.” If the Mets go far in the postseason, here are some suggestions for the new Wachtober:
Matt Harvey – Mattober or Dark Knightober
Jacob deGrom -Jaketober
Noah Syndergaard – Thortober
Steven Matz – Matztober
Bartolo Colon – Bartober
Curtis Granderson – Curtober
Daniel Murphy – Murphtober
David Wright – Wrightober
Michael Conforto – Confortober
Yoenis Cespedes – Yotober
Of course, this is dependent on the Mets making a deep run and one, or more of these guys being a major contributor. I hope I get to use these.
If you have a suggestion (even to an existing one), please pass it along. If I like it, I will update the list and credit your Twitter handle.
If rumors are correct, the Mets will go with the four man rotation of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz. I put them purposefully in that order because that’s how the Nets intend to line them up in the playoffs.
These four pitchers have had zero postseason appearances. In fact, as a group, they have less than five years of experience. This just highlights the total lack of postseason experience for the entire Mets staff. Overall, there are only three pitchers on the Mets who have any playoff experience:
- Bartolo Colon (10 starts) 2-4, 3.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 1.389 WHIP
- Tyler Clippard (3 appearances) 0-0, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 0 SV, 0.667 WHIP
- Eric O’Flaherty (1 appearance) 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0 SV, 2.00 WHIP
Unless his back prevents him, Clippard will be on the postseason roster. I believe the Mets will find a spot for Colon even if he isn’t starting. There’s no shot that O’Flaherty makes the team.
I’m not concerned at all. This was the case with the 1991 Braves rotation,nand they went to the World Series. The same goes for the 2003 Marlins. The 2008 Giants had a young core of starting pitchers they relied upon to win their first World Series in San Francisco. K-Rod burst on the scene on the 2002 Angels World Series Championship team. There’s another, better example for Mets fans. 1986.
In 1986, the Mets had Dwight Gooden (3 major league seasons), Ron Darling (4 major league seasons), Bobby Ojeda (7 major league season), and Sid Fernandez (4 major league seasons) make starts. Combined they had more than triple the major league experience of this current group of pitchers. However, they were still young and had zero postseason experience. The lack of postseason experience didn’t hold them back. The reason was their talent.
That’s right. For all the talk about what wins in the playoffs, we always forget the talent gap. This Mets rotation is the most talented in the NL, most likely all of baseball. If I have to choose between experience and talent, I pick talent every time.
It looks like the Mets are as well. Then again what choice do they have?
Look, this is Sandy Alderson’s team. He decided to keep the players he kept and trade the players he traded. He pulled off the trades and signed the free agents. However, he was able to do a lot of what he did because he was left with good players after Omar Minaya was terminated.
Here are the players in the 40 man roster who have a link to Omar Minaya (asterisked players are players obtained with players combined by Minaya and Alderson):
Jerry Blevins – obtained for 2010 draft pick Matt den Dekker.
Eric Campbell – 2008 draft pick.
Darrell Ceciliani – 2009 draft pick.
Travis d’Arnaud – part of the R.A. Dickey trade. Dickey was a free agent signing. Josh Thole was a 2005 draft pick. Mike Nickeas was initially obtained by trade in 2006.
Jacob deGrom – 2010 draft pick.
Lucas Duda – 2007 draft pick.
Jeurys Familia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Wilmer Flores – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Erik Goeddel – 2010 draft pick.
Matt Harvey – 2010 draft pick
Dilson Herrera* – part of Marlon Byrd/John Buck trade. Buck was part of the Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Juan Lagares – 2006 amateur free agent signing.
Steven Matz – 2009 draft pick.
Jenrry Mejia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Akeel Morris -2010 draft pick.
Daniel Murphy – 2006 draft pick.
Bobby Parnell – 2005 draft pick.
Addison Reed* – obtained in exchange for Matt Koch and Miller Diaz (signed by Mets in 2009).
Hansel Robles – 2008 amateur free agent.
Noah Syndergaard – part of Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Ruben Tejada – 2006 amateur free agent.
Again, these players are in the roster because Alderson kept them. The decision of who to keep and trade is important. That is what makes them Alderson’s players and team. Additionally, while It was Alderson that hired Terry Collins, it was Minaya who brought him into the Mets organization.
However, it is important to truly acknowledge Minaya’s role, especially when he has been unfairlyand wrongly marginalized.
You see I was on the same Jet Blue flight as Omar Minaya. The photo with this post was Minaya and me in the terminal before the flight. He was accessible to Mets fans who wanted to shake his hand and take a picture. No one, and I mean no one, had the “courage” to mock him on the flight.
Additionally, this should dispel the notion that Minaya left the Mets with a depleted farm system. On the contrary, he built a strong farm system that helped make up this team. Minaya had his faults, and he probably deserved to be fired when he was. That doesn’t mean we should ignore his work.
It doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t extend our gratitude to him for what he left behind.