Noah Syndergaard

Who’s the Next Shawn Estes?

There’s a moment that will forever live in Mets infamy:

  
(Seriously, how is there no video of this moment available?)

After all the garbage with Roger Clemens and Mike Piazza, the Mets finally had a chance to get revenge. Clemens came to Shea and finally had to stand in the batter’s box to answer for all his sins. Then Shawn Estes, who wasn’t a Met when everything happened, just missed. Missed!  

There were discussions on whether it was fair to put Estes in that spot. I always disregarded them. Estes was Piazza’s teammate. You stand up for your teammates. The Mets will have that opportunity again with that coward re-signing with the Dodgers. After the World Series, the hope is it’s Noah Syndergaard standing 60’6″ away from Chase Utley

After Utley’s dirty slide, the Mets have an opportunity to exact revenge. It will be all the more important if Ruben Tejada remains on the team. Assuming the rotation is the same set-up as in the World Series, the Mets re-set the rotation after the first two games of the season, and the Mets having a full five man rotation from that point forward the job will fall to Steven Matz. If the Mets don’t reset the rotation, the job will fall to Jacob deGrom

In some ways, the task will be easier for whoever the pitcher is because they were on the team when it happened. On the other hand, the situation is more difficult because the pitcher will have to do it in Los Angeles. 

Whomever it is, they need to actually plunk Utley. For the psyche of the team and the fan base, that pitcher can’t miss. 

Mets Real Problem

Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon. 

At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max ScherzerBryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards. 

What happened?  The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer. 

Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite. 

Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench playerWilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben TejadaDilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions. 

Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.

No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015. 

What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team. 

Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away?  Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close

Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready?  How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year?  Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?

That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason. 

When Does the Thor Backlash Begin?  

Sadly, Victor Cruz’s attempts to comeback from last season’s patella tendon injury has ended as he needs to have season ending calf surgery. Cruz sustained the latter injury while rehabbing his prior injury. It’s a cruel twist of fate. 

Cruz has overcome so much. In high school, his father committed suicide. He has been dismissed from the UMass football team due to his grades. He was an undrafted rookie free agent. He made the Giants, but he had a season ending hamstring injury in his first season meaning he’d have to prove himself all over again. 

He did. In 2011, he lead the Giants in receptions. He caught a touchdown in the Super Bowl. The next year he became a Pro Bowler. He’s been there for fans during times of tragedy. He’s always there when in need. He started the Victor Cruz Foundation to help children with education. He’s a role model. So what happens when he breaks down announcing he can’t return this year after working so hard to return:

What does it have to do with anything?  

Exactly. It’s just people kicking Cruz while he’s down.  Also, is it a surprise to anyone that Matt Harvey‘s name was invoked?  Not to me. He’s been the subject of gratuitous shots himself. Their crime?  Being visible. They’re not at clubs. They’re not beating women. They’re just visible. Apparently, it gives people the right to negate all of their hard work and effort. 

You know who’s been visible a lot lately?  Noah Syndergaard

  


  

  

If we’ve learned anything from Harvey, you’re not allowed to go to sporting events, especially Rangers games. 

Seriously, one day Harvey and Cruz were Kings of New York. Then they got hurt, and everybody had something to say about them.  If Thor gets hurt or sees a dip in performance, the wolves will come out. His comments during the World Series about being 60′ 6″ away will go from being  tough to being a clown. Just watch. 

I’m going to thank Cruz for his play with the Giants. I’m going to thank Harvey for his play with the Mets. I’m going to thank Syndergaard for his play with the Mets. I’m not going to change the narrative during a low point in their careers and/or lives. 

I hope the Syndergaard backlash never happens. If it does, just remember what they had to say about a good guy like Victor Cruz. 

Who’s the Fourth Member of the Big 4?

When discussing the 2016 Mets, I see many people referring to their Big 4. Now, I knew there was a Big 3, who were referred to as stud muffins by Tom Seaver. My question is who is the fourth member of this proverbial Big 4. 

Let’s start with the obvious. It’s not Jon Niese. He’s the definition of an average pitcher. Also, even if he’s the fourth best pitcher, I’m assuming it’s not Jeurys Familia. I doubt a closer would be thrown in with a Big 4 starting pitching group.

No, the fourth member would be either Steven Matz or Zack Wheeler. I like both Matz and Wheeler, but they haven’t earned this distinction yet. 

In his career, Wheeler is 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9. His ERA+ is 100, which means he’s just an average pitcher. That should be no surprise given his other statistics. While this is nothing to sneeze at, it does not merit putting him in the same conversation as Harvey, Thor, and deGrom. This is before taking his return from Tommy John into account. Wheeler is a tremendous talent, but he’s not a part of a Big 4 yet.

The more obvious choice for the Big 4 is Matz because he was in the postseason rotation. The only thing I can say about Matz right now is we had no idea what he is. He was incredible in his first two starts before being shut down with a lat injury. He was average when he came back only to hurt his back sleeping on the sofa. When he returned he was only good through five innings in the postseason. 

This isn’t a knock on him. He sat for long stretches which would challenge anyone’s effectiveness. The overall point is we don’t know what he is yet. He could very well reach the level of the stud muffins. He could also be nothing more than an average pitcher. 

Long story, short, there’s no Big 4. There could be one. There could be a Big 5. There’s a number of possibilities. However, right now it’s just a Big 3. 

Freaky Idea 

You know who used to be awesome?  Tim Lincecum. In 2008 and 2009, he won back-to-back Cy Young Awards. In 2010, he helped pitch the Giants to their first Workd Series title since they moved to San Francisco. 

After 2010, things have not gone well for Lincecum. His ERAs have been over 4.00, he’s had injuries, and he hasn’t been able to stay in the rotation. He was in the bullpen for the 2012 title run. He had only one relief appearance in the entire 2014 postseason. Last year, his year ended early because he needed hip surgery. He’s now a free agent. 

There’s a number of red flags. I look at that, and I see discount signs. It’s where you need to go if you truly have limited resources to improve in the offseason. You need to take what will hopefully be low cost, high reward signings. Ultimately, what the Mets would be looking for is the 2012 postseason version of Big Time Timmy Jim. 

Somewhat surprisingly, Lincecum was in the bullpen making six appearances (one NLCS start). He had a 2.55 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, and a 10.2 K/9. He showed a glimpse of having the ability to be great in the bullpen. What he hasn’t shown is the ability to be durable or good enough to make 32 starts per year. 

Long lost in baseball is the true long man. The player who could make a few appearances one week and make a start the next week. It’s something the Mets needed last year, and if they’re honest, they will want one next year with Matt HarveyJacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard throwing more innings last year than they’ve thrown before in their careers.

With all the troubles he’s had recently, it might be good to convince Lincecum he needs a new start. Convince him he could use a one year contract to re-establish his value so he may become the next Dennis Eckersley or John Smoltz. With two Cy Youngs and three World Series rings, you’re selling him on his Hall of Fame chances. His best chance would be moving to the bullpen. 

There’s one spot left in the bullpen. Why not offer it to Lincecum?  It may seem Freaky, but it may be equally beneficial to all involved. 

Let’s Not Throw Away Draft Picks

There are many thoughts about this offseason that baffles me. One is this notion that since the Mets offered Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, it doesn’t matter if the Mets sign a player whose received a qualifying offer. The premise is the two moves cancel each other out. 

For the uninitiated, the way the qualifying offer system works, if you sign a player who was offered a qualifying offer by another team, you forfeit your first round pick. In exchange, the team that lost a player has a pick tacked on to the end of the first round. 

The only exception to this is if you have a Top 10 pick. In that instance, you forfeit your second round pick. The team losing the player still has a pick added to the end of the first round. 

Right now, the Mets have the 24th pick in the 2016 draft. That pick will go higher if someone between 11-23 signs Murphy. In addition, the Mets will get another pick somewhere after the Cardinals and the start of the second round. 

Now, I don’t buy the cancel each other nonsense. People are saying moving down a few slots is not a big deal. What’s the difference between picking 24th and say 33rd. That’s flawed thinking for a few reasons. 

The first is their focus is misplaced.  Say Murphy signs with the Rockies as reported. This means the Mets keep their 24th pick and receive the 31st pick (depending on how many teams lose a player in free agency and their W-L records). That’ll give you two picks in the top say 35. If the Mets forfeit their first round pick, their second pick will be in the 50’s to 60’s. 

Now, draft picks aren’t a guarantee, but I’d assume that the player picked at 24 will be thought of as a better player than the player picked at 33 and the player picked 52. In addition, wouldn’t you rather have three picks in the top 60 as opposed to two?  

This also brings me to my second point. The Mets farm system is decent, but it’s taken some hits lately:

  1. There was no 2015 first round pick due to the signing of Michael Cuddyer;
  2. Trading potential future ace Casey Meisner for Tyler Clippard; and 
  3. Trading an even better pitcher in Michael Fulmer for Yoenis Cespedes.

In essence, the Mets could benefit from bringing in some more talented players. The idea here is to create a flow of prospects to the major league level. If you lose someone, you want to have a player waiting in the wings. If you need to make a trade, you want a well regarded prospect to make the trade you need to make. 

Now, if the Mets feel they are one player away, sign that player. The goal is to win the World Series, and the Mets are so close. However, you have to be right. The Mets thought they were close to becoming a contender coming into the 2015 season, so they signed Cuddyer. Turns out they were right, but only after trading for Cespedes and calling up Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto

Moral of the story is you have to be right otherwise you have a $12 million bench player instead of a first round pick who could’ve been a stud. Remember, prospects are always worth more than aging, expensive bench players.  That’s why you don’t just sign someone with a qualifying offer attached to him.  

You only sign that player if they’d be worth a big prospect because that’s what you’re doing. 

No Contrived Trade Rumors

The Mets have some definite holes on their team. They did in 2015, but those holes didn’t prevent them from making the World Series. One of those holes continues to be the SS position. Unfortunately, the free agent market doesn’t appear to be a solution. That means you either roll with what you have or make a trade. 

Now, everyone on the Mets roster can be traded except David Wright, who is a 5-and-10 player meaning the Mets can’t trade him without his permission. So other than him, any player on the roster is available for trade. No one is ever untouchable. Not even Noah Syndergaard. If the Angels call tomorrow and offer Mike Trout for him, you’re making the deal. 

With that said, we’re pretty sure that is not going to happen. Funny thing is, I’m sure there are Mets fans who would object to such a trade. Overall, I’m not going to create trade rumors because you wind up sounding ridiculous. Sure, I’ll comment on rumors that exist as I’ve done in the past. However, it’s another thing to create them.

So I won’t be doing anything like suggesting the Mets trade Matt Harvey for Xander Bogaerts or Corey Seager. First, you’re assuming either team would do it. Second, you’re only creating the same unfillable SS hole on another team when there is decent to great starting pitchers on the free agent market. Seriously, are we to assume the Red Sox and Dodgers need to trade young SS because they can’t afford to pay Zack Greinke or David Price?

Furthermore, the Mets starting pitching is the reason the Mets were able to stay afloat. It’s the reason the Mets made it to and were competitive in the World Series. Great starting pitching covers up a lot. When you deal from a position of strength, you only serve to weaken yourself. So no, I don’t advocate trading the starting pitching. 

I also don’t advocate creating rumors out of thin air. 

Happy Harvey Comeback Day

The Mets are on the brink on losing the World Series. They’re down 3-1. You’ll hear a lot of stats and reasons why this is impossible. Today, I offer you one reason why they’re going to win tonight: Matt Harvey

Put all the Dark Knight stuff aside. He’s not the Dark Knight tonight. That was a persona bestowed upon him as part of his rise and return from Tommy John surgery. No. Tonight is about the ace. The leader of the staff. The man who promised Terry Collins the Mets will be here. The man who delivered on that promise.

Gone is all the Harvey Dent nonsense. Harvey always has wanted this. The man did everything he could do to get himself to this point. He pushed himself past what his agent, his doctors, and his organization wanted. He will be there for his teammates, his fans, and his city tonight. 

When Harvey went down two Augusts ago, Mets fans were depressed because we knew there was no chance of winning in 2014. When he came back in 2015, he rejuvenated the fan base. He rejuvenated the Mets. We all knew there was hope in 2015. Hope became promise. Promise became reality. 

The reality now is Harvey takes the mound 27 outs away from extending the series. Twenty-seven outs away from fulfilling not only the promise he’s made with his words to Terry Collins, but also the promise he has with that terrific right arm. He’s going to deliver tonight. As you can tell from this post, I’m not focusing on fantasy in this belief . . . I’m relying on cold hard facts.

First, Harvey is terrific at home. This year he was 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, and a 8.8 K/9. Second, he’s feeling more comfortable with his normal rest. Last time that happened in the postseason, he dominated the Cubs over 7.2 innings allowing only four hits, two earned, two walks, and nine strikeouts. He was a Juan Lagares misplay away from a much bigger night too. Third, the Royals haven’t seen him yet . . . at least the real Harvey. 

In Games 1 & 2, the Mets were not doing what they do best. With one pitch and one game from Noah Syndergaard, the Mets starters are back. Harvey is now going to come in and get that 95+ MPH fastball going. Once that’s firmly established, he’s going to keep the Royals off balance with the offspeed and breaking stuff.

The Mets have their backs against the wall. Harvey is angry and raring to go. The comeback starts tonight. 

Quick Halloween Recap

Well, I won and lost in the selection of the Halloween costume. I wanted to dress my son up in a Mets jersey with the hammer. My wife said no one would get it. I didn’t care. I thought Thor would’ve been an awesome costume. She works with too many Yankee fans because none of them got it, and I lost. 

Instead, he was Yoda. Well, he was Yoda until he got tired of the hat. He then became either Luke Skywalker or a generic Jedi depending on your point of view. He was adorable, and he loved Trick or Treating. We went to five different spots. At each spot, I was stopped several times. 

I can’t tell you how many people thanked me for the wisdom, insight, and at times, humor on the site. No I’m kidding. People saw the Mets hat and would say things like “Lets Go Mets,” “We’re Mets fans too,” or”How do you think we’ll do tonight?”  There were some high fives and head nods. 

There was one idiot in a Yankee cap who said there’s another bandwagon Mets fan referencing in my new World Series fleece. Apparently, he didn’t think I could hear him. He had no answer when I asked him who Gene Michael is. He chuckled and said, “See, there’s no one named Gene Michael on the Mets.”  Yup. 

Anyway, today was awesome. The candy haul was great. There was so much my son was dragging his pail on the ground. There’s more than he could eat. Guess I’ll just have to help him out. ; )

It was also great to see so many people interested in the Mets. The perfect way to cap off today is a win. 

Will Youth be Served?

I’m not the Elias Sports Bureau, but I’m guessing there have not been two starters back to back who have made fewer starts than Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Between the two of them, they have 30 combined starts, or about half an Old Hoss Radbourn season. 

Last night, Thor started the game like Old Hoss, or at least like his Twitter profile. In essence, he came out like a veteran. He effectively mixed his pitches limiting the Royals offense. Unlike the first two games, the Mets let their starter be who he was, and he pitched well. He pitched the Mets back into the series. 

Where Thor had to pitch the Mets back into the series, Matz has to keep them in the series. Thor showed him the blueprint. It wasn’t just the high and hard pitch to open the game. It wasn’t the 98 MPH fastball. It was Thor going out there and doing what he does well. That’s what Matz had to do tonight to give the Mets a chance to win. 

For Matz, that means establishing his fastball and keeping batters off balance with his curveball. He’s facing a team hitting .226 against lefties in the postseason (as opposed to .272 in the regular season). Arguably, the Royals best hitter, Kendrys Morales, will be on the bench. Matz is being put in a good position to have a strong game tonight. 

Both he and Thor are in there with the season on the line. A team driven by young starting pitching is now relying on the two youngest and most inexperienced pitchers. It worked in Game 3. They now turn to the local boy in Game 4. 

This is the moment every little boy dreams of, to play for your favorite team in the World Series. He’s getting that chance tonight. Hopefully, youth will be served.