Noah Syndergaard
No matter how you slice or dice it, the Mets have gone from an under .500 team to taking over New York in one year. How did they do it?
For starters, the Mets went to the World Series. They went on a magical run and came up just short. Additionally, they have assembled a roster that is more than capable of returning to the World Series this year, but also in years to come. Just as important as all of this, the Mets have a team that is good to the fans. Even after a loss in the World Series, they came out to share the moment with the fans. The fans love this team, and the feelings seem mutual.
One major reason why the fans love the team is the larger than life personalities on the team.
Matt Harvey travels across the talk show circuit like he’s got a movie about to be released even though “The Dark Knight Rises” was released in 2012. No, it’s not a coincidence that the movie was released the year he was first called up to the majors.
After the World Series, Noah Syndergaard took his own victory tour going to each New York stadium letting them know he owned the city. He actively accepts and plays off the Thor superhero moniker bestowed upon him. He knows what everyone thinks about when they think if him, and then he goes about playing along on Twitter:
Spring Training packing checklist:
-glove✔️
-spikes✔️
-mjolnir?✔️
-lunch box ?— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) February 4, 2016
RT @statcast Your eyes did not deceive you. @Mets starters just throw harder than the rest.https://t.co/tqILsn0vDg pic.twitter.com/cjnAm0Dl6e
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) February 4, 2016
By the way, before he came to the majors, he was thought of as the quiet one.
Overall though, no one moves the needle more than Yoenis Cespedes. He’s got swagger. Say what you will about him, but he is just cool. There are people and players that have that aura. Whatever you want to call it, Cespedes had it. Speaking of which, did you see that car?!?!?
This is Yoenis Cespedes's vehicle today. Unreal. pic.twitter.com/oUMz9HNEP5
— Robert Brender (@robertbrender) February 23, 2016
More shots of Cespedes's new three-wheel ride. Mets teammates even came out to see it. pic.twitter.com/29CkA5Srqf
— Andrew Beaton (@andrewlbeaton) February 23, 2016
Harvey has a Maserati, and people don’t even notice it. For what it’s worth, Harvey could’ve driven a Honda Civic today. No one noticed. Do you realize how big of a person or personality you need to be to make people not notice Matt Harvey?
That’s why the Mets own New York. They get it. They accept and return the fans’ love. They have a certain cool about them. They’re confident. They’re fun. They’re awesome on and off the field.
That’s why the Mets own New York.
(Photo from Mets Twitter account)
In 2014, the Royals were 90 feet away from scoring the tying run of the World Series. Even though most agreed Alex Gordon made the right decision stopping at third, his decision became a topic of discussion when Madison Bumgarner got Salvador Perez to foul out to end the World Series.
The game tying run was forever stranded at third.
Fast forward to the 2015 World Series.
With the exception of Game 2, the Mets had a late lead in each game. They got to that point despite the Mets starting pitching not having one truly great game. In fact, the Mets starting pitching had been somewhat disappointing. With that said, they pitched well enough to put the Mets in position to win four of the five games.
Then the pitching showed up in Game 5. Matt Harvey shut down the Royals much in the same way Bumgarner had shut down the Royals. Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard were ready to go for Games 6 & 7. Before the ninth inning, the Royals had a dejected look in the dugout. Even if they were up 3-1 in the series, they were in real trouble. The Mets great starting pitching had awoken.
In the fateful ninth inning, Eric Hosmer was on third base. He was 90 feet away. Then this happened:
Hosmer had no business running there. None. He was the last out of the game. However, when 90 feet separated you from a World Series championship the previous year.
Yes, we heard it was about the scouting reports on Duda. The Royals scouts said the team should test Duda’s arm when they got the chance. However, that’s not what really happened. Hosmer described it somewhat differently:
We think about [losing the World Series] often. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I think that’s kind of something we turn to mentally . . . . Everyone kind of relates to that and relates to how much that hurt.
***********
You’ve got to try to take a chance. With who was on the mound, Familia, hits are hard to come by, so, you know, you had to be aggressive. If it hadn’t worked out, I’d be answering some hard questions right now, but that’s the way we’ve been doing it all year. We’ve been taking chances, and found a way to get it done.
Hosmer admitted the end of the 2014 World Series impacted and drove the Royals throughout the 2015 season and World Series. The team was not going to let the tying run be stranded on third base. In 2015, the Royals strived to be more aggressive.
It’s now 2016, and now it’s the Mets turn to answer questions about why they lost the World Series. Naturally, one of the issues that arise is Lucas Duda’s throw:
Duda says the throw home in the World Series haunted him. Watched the play a few times on film. Still believes good throw gets him.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) February 18, 2016
In reality, Duda’s throw didn’t cost the Mets the World Series. Overall, it was their defense. You can pinpoint to problems in each and every game the Mets lost.
The Mets have to let this fuel them in 2016 much in the same way the Royals were fueled by the way they lost in the 2014 World Series. They need to use it to be better defensively, to pay better attention to detail in the field. If the Mets do this, they can do what the Royals did. They can return to the World Series.
And when they return chances are Lucas Duda makes that throw home helping thereby helping the Mets win the 2016 World Series.
The general consensus as to why Hall of Famer Walter Johnson was so dominant was the saying, “You can’t hit what you can’t see.” In analyzing MLB’s Statcast data, that saying could now be applied to the young New York Mets pitching staff.
As the article notes, the Mets threw more pitches than any other team over 95 MPH. Nearly a thousand more. The main reason for this was the trio of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. Harvey’s two-seamer averaged 95.4, and his four seamer averaged 95.3. deGrom’s two seamer averaged 95.6, and his four seamer averaged 96.0. As all Mets fans know, Syndergaard led the pack. His two seamer averaged 98.3, and his four seamer averaged 98.4. Amongst starting pitchers Symdergaard threw the fastest.
This trio of hard throwing righties kept the Mets afloat in 2015 while the offense spluttered. When the team then assembled a major league capable offense, these pitchers led the Mets to the World Series. In 2016, it’s only going to get better.
Last year, the Mets had innings limits, skipped starts, and at times, six man rotations. Syndergaard wasn’t called up until May. In 2016, the Mets have said innings limits and the like will not be an issue. As such, all three of the Mets aces should be expected to make 32 starts and throw over 200 innings. This means more 95+ MPH fastballs. Again, batters will have trouble hitting the pitches they can’t see.
If that wasn’t enough, it gets even better. Steven Matz should start the year in the rotation. According to Brooks Baseball, Matz’s fastball averaged 94.57 MPH. Prior to Matz’s lat injury, his fastball averaged 94.90 MPH. With a full season of a healthy Matz, the Mets will further increase the amount of fastballs throw over 95 MPH.
In addition to a full season of Matz, the Mets can expect a half a season of Zack Wheeler. In Wheeler’s career, his four seamer averaged 95.87 MPH, and his sinker averaged 95.50 MPH. All told, upon Wheeler’s return, the Mets will feature a starting rotation that has five pitchers bringing the heat at over 95 MPH. That is just incredible.
However, why does it matter? Well, as FiveThirtyEight showed last year, it is just harder to hit a fastball that’s thrown 95 MPH and above. In total, batters swung and missed at pitches thrown this fast 22.8% of the time. That’s about 5-10% more frequent than pitches thrown slower.
More importantly, as we saw in last year’s NLCS, the Cubs are more likely to swing and miss at these pitches than any other team in baseball. Heading into the 2016 season, it appears that yet again it will be the Cubs standing in the Mets way. The pitching staff the Mets have constructed is not only effective against the Cubs, but also every single team in baseball.
The Mets 2016 pitching staff is the single best argument why any team in baseball will go to and win the World Series. The Mets young starters brought the heat last year. Next year will be more of the same.
Good luck to the National League next year because you can’t hit what you can’t see.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
Last year, the Mets were carried by their pitching. It helped them sustain an anemic offense until the Mets got healthy and made trades. It helped carry them to the World Series. It’s the promise for the future.
That future first comes into question around 2019. That is the year that Matt Harvey becomes a free agent. Zack Wheeler could become a free agent the same year or the subsequent year. Two years later Jacob deGrom becomes a free agent. After that, the Mets will have to address the free agent case of Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Naturally, this prompts the discussion of who the Mets should extend and when they should do it.
When these discussions take place, I find everyone to be extremely short-sided. Yes, it’s important to make a decision on the Mets starters, especially on Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard. However, I find that these discussions ignore Jeurys Familia. Like Harvey, Familia will be a free agent in 2019.
Familia was an exceedingly important part of the 2015 Mets. He was the stabilizing force at the back-end of a beleaguered bullpen. During 2015, Familia had the fifth most appearances. Of players who were strictly relievers, he had the third most innings pitched. He lead the league in games finished. He tied the Mets single season record for saves.
The advanced statistics also loved Familia’s 2015 season. He had an ERA+ of 200, which is astounding. It was the best amongst Mets pitchers. In fact, it’s a tick below Mariano Rivera‘s career 205 mark, which is the best in major league history. Familia’s FIP was 2.74, which, unsurprisingly, rates him as an excellent pitcher. Mariano’s career mark was 2.76. In essence, Familia’s 2015 was Riveraesque.
Keep in mind, Collins initially deployed Familia like Rivera. When it came time to close out the NLDS, Familia pitched two shutout innings. In the whole postseason, Familia had 12 appearances, and of those 12 appearances, he pitched more than one inning five times. He pitched 14.2 innings in those 12 appearances. Yes, he blew three saves in the World Series, but he only allowed one earned run the entire postseason. In reality, the blown saves were not on Familia but the Mets team as a whole.
Its important to lock-up some starting pitchers. If Harvey, deGrom, or Syndergaard leave, the Mets have other starters to keep having a strong rotation. If Familia were to leave, the Mets do not appear to have another reliever to take Familia’s spot. This makes extending Familia absolutely imperative.
So when it comes down to which Mets pitcher I would extend first, my answer is Jeurys Familia.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
Groundhog Day pretty well sums up what it’s been like being a Mets fan since the Madoff scandal a/k/a the Wilponzi Scandal. It was nothing but a series of cost-cutting measures and insulting fans intelligence telling them they would spend if fans came to the park to watch what was a pretty terrible product.
Sandy Alderson was running around like Ned Ryerson . . . BING! . . . telling us about the D.J. Carrascos and Shaun Marcums of the baseball world inviting us to come down to Citi Field. Mets fans ran away tripping into a puddle while everyone seemed to laugh at us. We went about every offseason saying, “Well, the Mets won’t spend money . . . Again.”
Seriously, nothing could go right. Even when something good happened, like Matt Harvey‘s 2013 season, we closed our eyes and *poof* it was all over. The next season rolled around with no Harvey. No hope. Just the same old song with the same old stinging cold shower trying to wash the pain away of another lost season.
BING! We’re all wet and embarrassed again. We took off from Citi Field being told, “Don’t drive angry. Don’t drive angry!”
Yet, everyday things got better. The Mets made shrewd trades for the future. In 2015, they made in-season trades to improve the team. Jacob deGrom won the Rookie of the Year. Harvey was coming back from Tommy John Surgery. Noah Syndergaard fulfilled his promise. The Mets actually made in-season trades to get better. Like Phil Connors wielding a chainsaw, things were taking shape.
After the Mets lost the World Series, it seemed like the Mets fans were going to go to sleep and all the good will gone the way of Alejandro De Aza. Then Jeff Wilpon crawled out of his hole with enough money to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes.
It’s a new day for the Mets. They’re going to go and give it their all to win the World Series. It’s a new feeling in the – BING! – Sandy Alderson Era. Why it’s almost like being in love.
Back in the 90’s when the Braves had Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz, Leo Mazzone was hailed as a genius. When he went to the Baltimore Orioles, not so much. Rick Peterson was a genius with Hudson, Mulder, and Zito. With the Mets, he was a scapegoat. He was replaced with Dan Warthen.
Now that the Mets have Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard, Warthen has gained some notoriety. We now hear about the “Warthen Slider.” As is the case, when you get a trio of young aces, all the fame is going to come your way. They point to certain things you do that makes great pitchers great. Typically, pitching coaches get a lot of praise when they have great pitchers. Warthen, who had survived two GMs and two managers, is no different. How good is he really? Perhaps, we are about to find out.
This past offseason the Mets traded Jon Niese. He was once regarded well enough to receive a five year contract extension with two additional team options. Overall, Niese was somewhat disappointing. He’s had shoulder problems. He was 61-61 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.361 WHIP. I believe it’s fair to say the Mets expected more and didn’t receive it. Now, Niese is a Pittsburgh Pirate where he is now joined with well regarded pitching coach Ray Searage.
Searage is fast developing a reputation as a pitching guru. Unlike most pitching coaches, it’s not because of who he has, but what he does with what he has. Here’s an example of some of his success stories:
- 2012 Twins/White Sox 6-12, 5.34 ERA, 1.468 WHIP
- 2013-2015 Pirates 35-25, 3.26 ERA, 1.241 ERA
- 2011 Yankees 11-11, 5.15 ERA, 1.434 WHIP
- 2012-2013 Pirates 26-21, 3.41 ERA, 1.228 WHIP
- 2014 Phillies 8-18, 4.59 ERA, 1.409 WHIP
- 2015 Pirates 9-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.360 ERA
- 2015 Mariners 4-6, 4.64 ERA, 1.408 WHIP
- 2015 Pirates 7-2, 1.85 ERA, 1.026 WHIP
As noted above, Searage’s next project is Niese. He’s coming off of what might be perhaps the worst year of his career where he went 9-10 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.398 WHIP. Searage has his work cut out for him, especially with a head strong pitcher like Niese. For his part, Niese is seeing an opportunity for improvement with a superior Pirates defense. Is the Pirates defense Searage’s equivalent to Warthen’s slider? Who knows?
At the end of the day, it’s a results based business, and Searage has done something with his pitchers to coax better results than they have elsewhere. If that continues, Niese is about to have the best year of what has so far been a very disappointing career. It’ll be another pitcher that Searage has been able to reach that other pitching coaches couldn’t.
If that’s true, it doesn’t make Warthen a bad pitching coach. Rather, it shows that like this who have come before him, his perceived skill is more closely tied to the skills possessed by his pitching staff.
As a Giants fan, I love Eli Manning. Any true Giants fan would. The man won two Super Bowls picking up an MVP in each game. There’s always the debate if he’s elite or not. That conversation never concerned me because I knew that my guy could go up against Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady (twice) and beat them in the biggest games. He inspires confidence. That’s all I could ask. That’s why he’s a big time QB.
That’s how I feel about the Mets current pitching staff. Last we saw them, they were leading the Mets to an improbable National League Pennant. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard went out there and established they can pitch with anybody. Better yet, they established they can beat anybody. In the NLDS, it was Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke for two starts a piece. In the NLCS, it was Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Mets beat them all.
With Arrieta, Greinke, and Kershaw, the Mets beat the top three in the NL Cy Young voting. With Lester, the Mets beat a pitcher who has a 2.85 postseason ERA along with a 1.071 WHIP. Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard beat them all. Not only did they establish they can pitch with the best, they also established they can beat the best. That’s all you need to know about them.
Sure, the Mets rotation wasn’t ranked ahead of the Cubs rotation, nor was it ranked as the top rotation in baseball. None of the Mets pitchers were ranked as the top 10 pitchers right now. At the end of the day, who cares? Seriously. This stuff is to create and drive debate. What’s not up for debate is that the Mets Big Three can go against any other team’s pitching and win.
So while everyone can go on discussing who is and who is not elite, I’m perfectly comfortable watching my guys collect division titles and pennants. They’ve proven they can do that, and they will do it again. So yes, none of the Mets starters are in the Top 10 right now. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter.
The Mets starters right now are number one in the National League.
With Daniel Murphy signing with the Nationals, my son has to find a new favorite Met. Honestly, I didn’t steer him in the direction of Murphy. I wouldn’t because I knew he might be gone. Initially, his favorite player was Lucas Duda, but somewhere that changed.
Some of it might have been my personal feelings towards Murphy. I was always a huge fan of his. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of Duda, but Murphy was my favorite Met.
Now, Matt Harvey is my favorite Met. He was the one that gave us all hope. I will always appreciate him for what he did in Game Five of the World Series. With that said, I don’t want him to become my son’s favorite player. The main reason is Harvey will be a free agent in 2019. That’s not that far away, and I would prefer for him to root for a player who will be around longer than that. With that said, I’ve narrowed it down to three choices:
I honestly picked these three guys because they broke into the majors last year, and as a natural extension, should be around the longest. Each have their own separate pull.
I like Matz because my son and I attended his first ever game. He’s a lifelong Mets fan who actually became a Met. He’s a left-handed pitcher, and any motivation I can use to get my son to throw left-handed is an added benefit.
Thor has the cool nickname, and he looks like the real deal. It’s easy to get a kid excited about a guy who throws 100 MPH and strikes a lot of guys out. I could also play this Pedro Martinez clip incessantly:
If you don’t think a two year old boy wouldn’t find it fun and hilarious to run around screaming, “THOR!” all day, you’re nuts.
The last option is Conforto. Conforto burst on the scene and played better than fans either reasonably or inreasonably expected. He hits left-handed as my son does now (Murphy left an impression). He’s an everyday player, which is a huge benefit. First, pitchers are more prone to have injuries that could leave them out for extended time or possibly be career threatening. Most importantly, when I bring my son to a game, it is more likely than Conforto will play. I don’t have to count every five days and hope there are no spot starts or skipped starts so he can see his favorite player.
With that said, I think I’m going to spend Spring Training trying to convert my son into a Conforto fan. If the past is any judge, he will select a player on his own. With that said, he may very well choose Conforto as his new favorite Met all on his own. That would be even better.
No matter what happens, I’m playing that Thor clip constantly because to me having him scream “THOR!” will be hilarious. I ask for my wife’s forgiveness in advance.
Honestly, I believe it’s too early to start naming Opening Day starters, but teams are already doing it. I guess when you’re the Diamondbacks it’s easy. When you’re the Mets with a loaded pitching staff, it’s a much more interesting question.
The first choice would be Jacob deGrom. He had the best year out of any Mets starter last year. He was the story of last year’s All Star Game. He was terrific in the NLDS. Also, he was supposed to be the Game Sux starter. Starting him in Kansas City would be the Mets way of saying we’re picking up where we left off, and we’re heading back to the World Series.
The next choice is Matt Harvey. In many ways, he’s the presumptive ace. He’s the guy that burst on the scene in 2013 giving the Mets fans hope this all was coming. He’s another year removed from Tommy John surgery, and the second year back is normally when a pitcher excels. He ended his year with an incredible Game Five performance. Starting Harvey in Kansas City is saying you’re not going to beat us again.
With all that said, I start Noah Syndergaard on Opening Day. The message is plain and simple. We’re not backing down this year from anyone. This was a 23 year old rookie pitcher who toed the rubber at the first ever World Series game at Citi Field, and this was his first pitch:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FMbpt_TtDro
When the Royals complained about the pitch, Thor told them to meet him at the mound. His presence on the mound alone is saying to the baseball world the Mets are intimidated by no one, and they’re back fighting to win 2016. If you have a problem with that, you know where to find them. The story line won’t be about the Royals getting their rings. Instead, it’ll be about how the Royals will handle Thor.
We want the 2016 season to be about the Mets and their pitching staff. We want it to be about the Mets responding to last year’s World Series loss by beating and intimidating other teams. You want all of baseball to look at this staff and wonder how they’re going to beat the Mets. This needs to be the story from day one. Let Terry Collins explain he’s starting the guy who beat the Royals last year. However he presents it, the most important thing is that we all know the Mets are going out there looking to get into their opponents’ heads with their pitching.
That starts day one. That’s why you start Thor on Opening Day.