Noah Syndergaard
The Mets are on the brink on losing the World Series. They’re down 3-1. You’ll hear a lot of stats and reasons why this is impossible. Today, I offer you one reason why they’re going to win tonight: Matt Harvey.
Put all the Dark Knight stuff aside. He’s not the Dark Knight tonight. That was a persona bestowed upon him as part of his rise and return from Tommy John surgery. No. Tonight is about the ace. The leader of the staff. The man who promised Terry Collins the Mets will be here. The man who delivered on that promise.
Gone is all the Harvey Dent nonsense. Harvey always has wanted this. The man did everything he could do to get himself to this point. He pushed himself past what his agent, his doctors, and his organization wanted. He will be there for his teammates, his fans, and his city tonight.
When Harvey went down two Augusts ago, Mets fans were depressed because we knew there was no chance of winning in 2014. When he came back in 2015, he rejuvenated the fan base. He rejuvenated the Mets. We all knew there was hope in 2015. Hope became promise. Promise became reality.
The reality now is Harvey takes the mound 27 outs away from extending the series. Twenty-seven outs away from fulfilling not only the promise he’s made with his words to Terry Collins, but also the promise he has with that terrific right arm. He’s going to deliver tonight. As you can tell from this post, I’m not focusing on fantasy in this belief . . . I’m relying on cold hard facts.
First, Harvey is terrific at home. This year he was 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, and a 8.8 K/9. Second, he’s feeling more comfortable with his normal rest. Last time that happened in the postseason, he dominated the Cubs over 7.2 innings allowing only four hits, two earned, two walks, and nine strikeouts. He was a Juan Lagares misplay away from a much bigger night too. Third, the Royals haven’t seen him yet . . . at least the real Harvey.
In Games 1 & 2, the Mets were not doing what they do best. With one pitch and one game from Noah Syndergaard, the Mets starters are back. Harvey is now going to come in and get that 95+ MPH fastball going. Once that’s firmly established, he’s going to keep the Royals off balance with the offspeed and breaking stuff.
The Mets have their backs against the wall. Harvey is angry and raring to go. The comeback starts tonight.
Well, I won and lost in the selection of the Halloween costume. I wanted to dress my son up in a Mets jersey with the hammer. My wife said no one would get it. I didn’t care. I thought Thor would’ve been an awesome costume. She works with too many Yankee fans because none of them got it, and I lost.
Instead, he was Yoda. Well, he was Yoda until he got tired of the hat. He then became either Luke Skywalker or a generic Jedi depending on your point of view. He was adorable, and he loved Trick or Treating. We went to five different spots. At each spot, I was stopped several times.
I can’t tell you how many people thanked me for the wisdom, insight, and at times, humor on the site. No I’m kidding. People saw the Mets hat and would say things like “Lets Go Mets,” “We’re Mets fans too,” or”How do you think we’ll do tonight?” There were some high fives and head nods.
There was one idiot in a Yankee cap who said there’s another bandwagon Mets fan referencing in my new World Series fleece. Apparently, he didn’t think I could hear him. He had no answer when I asked him who Gene Michael is. He chuckled and said, “See, there’s no one named Gene Michael on the Mets.” Yup.
Anyway, today was awesome. The candy haul was great. There was so much my son was dragging his pail on the ground. There’s more than he could eat. Guess I’ll just have to help him out. ; )
It was also great to see so many people interested in the Mets. The perfect way to cap off today is a win.
I’m not the Elias Sports Bureau, but I’m guessing there have not been two starters back to back who have made fewer starts than Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Between the two of them, they have 30 combined starts, or about half an Old Hoss Radbourn season.
Last night, Thor started the game like Old Hoss, or at least like his Twitter profile. In essence, he came out like a veteran. He effectively mixed his pitches limiting the Royals offense. Unlike the first two games, the Mets let their starter be who he was, and he pitched well. He pitched the Mets back into the series.
Where Thor had to pitch the Mets back into the series, Matz has to keep them in the series. Thor showed him the blueprint. It wasn’t just the high and hard pitch to open the game. It wasn’t the 98 MPH fastball. It was Thor going out there and doing what he does well. That’s what Matz had to do tonight to give the Mets a chance to win.
For Matz, that means establishing his fastball and keeping batters off balance with his curveball. He’s facing a team hitting .226 against lefties in the postseason (as opposed to .272 in the regular season). Arguably, the Royals best hitter, Kendrys Morales, will be on the bench. Matz is being put in a good position to have a strong game tonight.
Both he and Thor are in there with the season on the line. A team driven by young starting pitching is now relying on the two youngest and most inexperienced pitchers. It worked in Game 3. They now turn to the local boy in Game 4.
This is the moment every little boy dreams of, to play for your favorite team in the World Series. He’s getting that chance tonight. Hopefully, youth will be served.
There’s an old saying, “Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.” After losing to the Mets 9-3 yesterday, the sound you heard was glass breaking, or whining you decide.
Let’s rewind before the series. Daniel Murphy was the hottest hitter on the planet. When asked about how to pitch to him, here’s how Dave Eiland, the Royals pitching coach, responded, “He stands very close to the plate. I’ll leave it at that.” In Game 1, Murphy was pounded inside including this pitch from Edison Volquez:
Since Game 1, the Royals have continued pounding Murphy inside. It’s baseball.
Now coming into the World Series, Alcides Escobar was the American League version of Daniel Murphy. He was coming off an ALCS where he hit .478/.481./.652. The Royals leadoff hitter swung at the first pitch of every game. According to the official scorer, he lead off Game 1 of the World Series with an inside the park homerun.
Both he and the Royals have been comfortable at the plate. In Game 2, the Royals were very comfortable at the plate winning 7-1. To combat this, Noah Syndergaard said he would “have a few tricks up [his] sleeve” to deal with the free swinging Escobar and the Royals. Here was Syndergaard’s first pitch:
Here’s the still of where the ball was when it passed by Escobar:
Escobar would strike out in the at bat. He would strike out twice. The Royals lost 9-3. After a loss like that, any team would be upset. The Royals were no exception. However, I was startled by the reason. They thought Syndergaard was head hunting.
Escobar accused Syndergaard of throwing at his head. The whole team felt that Syndergaard was head hunting. For his part Syndergaard said it was the plan to go high and tight first pitch and then to drop a curveball. He would strike out out Escobar on the first pitch. When Syndergaard was informed of the Royals objections, his response was perfect:
"If they have a problem with me throwing inside, than they can meet me 60 feet, 6 inches away." Noah Syndergaard @Mets #WorldSeries
— Linda Cohn (@lindacohn) October 31, 2015
Now, I will never, ever defend head hunting. Personally, I have called out the Mets for bush league tactics. Syndergaard responsibly threw inside yesterday. It was above Escobar’s head and the ball never entered the batter’s box. Syndergaard was just keeping a red hot Escobar uncomfortable.
If Kansas City has a problem with that maybe they shouldn’t have thrown at Murphy like they inferred they would do. Until they stop throwing in high and tight on Murphy, they can be quiet.
Right now, the momentum is going against the Mets in the World Series. They’re down 0-2 in the series, but momentum in baseball is the next day’s starting pitcher. For the Mets, it’s Noah Syndergaard. That spells trouble for the Royals:
Thor’s path to victory is clear. He just needs to pitch the way he has all year. He has been incredible at home going 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA, 0.821 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/9. His fastball velocity is up over 98 MPH in the postseason. He’s gone 1-1 with one hold, a 2.77 ERA, 1.077 ERA, and a 13.8 K/9. By the way, that was all on the road where he’s supposedly bad.
He keeps improving, and it’s scary. He’s the only Mets starter with increased velocity right now. It’s difficult to hit him:
Noah Syndergaard, bring the heat … map pic.twitter.com/gmSr8CtrVQ
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 30, 2015
Think the Royals are going to hit him? Think again. Thor brings a different type of heat that the Royals aren’t as successful against:
The team least likely to swing and miss at a 98+ MPH fastball this season … it wasn't the Royals. It was the Mets (13% miss rate)
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 29, 2015
Thor is coming into this game with a “few tricks upon his sleeve.” I can tell you what they are. It’s his fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. He goes on the mound and turns the series and the narrative tonight. He’s going to bring the hammer. He’s going to have the Royals shaking their heads. He’s going to have everyone going:
Time to make this series 2-1. Lets Go Mets!
Before the series, I detailed how the Mets would win this series because they essentially had three Madison Bumgarners. I have to admit after two games, I have to admit my comparison doesn’t look good. I obsess over everything, and I have to know why. Note to my son, good luck dealing with me buddy.
When I first looked at everything, I saw that Bumgarner established his fastball and then mixed in his breaking pitches. It’s how the Mets three stud muffins pitched all year long. My eyes told me in Game 1 and 2 that Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom abandoned who they were.
They didn’t establish the fastball. Instead, they started mixing in the offspeed changes immediately. When they needed to get the big outs in the fifth for deGrom and sixth for Harvey, the Royals had seen everything, and they weren’t surprised by anything. However, I’m a fan. I see a lot of things, and usually what I see is pro-Mets.
Here is deGrom’s breakdown from the regular season:
- 96.23 MPH fastball 37.89%
- 96.44 MPH sinker 18.01%
- 86.54 MPH change 15.84%
- 90.03 MPH slider 12.01%
- 81.63 MPH curve 16.15 %
Here’s deGrom last night:
- 95.48 MPH fastball 28.72%
- 95.48 MPH sinker 27.66%
- 86.53 MPH change 10.64%
- 87.96 MPH slider 13.83%
- 81.02 MPH curve 19.15 %
Here’s what I see. He had a slight dip in velocity. He was throwing more lower in the zone and not moving the ball horizontally in the zone. He threw more breaking pitches than changing speeds. In more ways than one, he was a different pitcher.
Harvey was more successful, but he couldn’t hold a lead. I’m curious what, if anything, he did different than deGrom and/or during the regular season. Here’s Harvey’s regular season:
- 95.86 MPH fastball 59.56%
- 88.08 MPH change 11.48%
- 90.29 MPH slider 14.75%
- 84.01 MPH curve 14.21%
Here’s his Game 1 start:
- 94.72 MPH fastball 37.50%
- 87.56 MPH change 25.00%
- 89.57 MPH slider 21.25%
- 83.09 MPH curve 16.25%
Like deGrom, he had a slight velocity dip. He was more drastic in how he pitched. Harvey pretty much threw any pitch at anytime. I’m not sure if that indicates he kept the Royals more off balance and that’s why he went deeper in the game giving up more runs. I’m not sure if Harvey’s secondary pitches are just that much better.
What I do see is that Harvey and deGrom changed how they pitched. Personally, I think it’s from an over reliance on scouting reports. I’m not a dinosaur. I think you have to scout your opponent to find out how to best beat your opponent.
However, you also have to scout yourself. You need to find out the things you do well. The Mets didn’t do enough of that in Kansas City, and they suffered. It’s a lesson for Noah Syndergaard. You have to be yourself on the mound. Establish the fastball and mix in your secondary pitches.
It worked against the Royals last year. It’s worked for Thor this year. It’s how the Mets will turn this series around.
I’ve been watching Mets baseball for over 30 years. It doesn’t matter if it’s the 1986 or the 2015 team, it’s never easy. After last night’s admittedly disheartening loss, I saw way too many Mets fans giving up and/or trying to come to terms with losing the World Series. It reminded me of this:
We saw a historically inept offense transform with two trades, some health, and yes, some luck. The team had a debilitating loss to the Padres. They rebounded, swept the Nationals, and claimed first place. They would’ve give it back.
The Mets then lost a potential clincher at home in the NLDS forcing them to have to travel cross-country to face presumptive Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. The Mets would win the do or did game on the road to advance to the NLCS to face the favored Cubs. The Mets swept the Cubs and won the pennant.
Yes, the last two games were hard, but you know what? We’ve all forgotten how hard the regular season was. It was brutal. That coupled with putting themselves on the brink of losing the NLDS, the entire season has been one tense moment after another. What have anyone the idea that: (1) this was going to be easy; and/or (2) the Mets don’t have what it takes to win this series now.
The Mets are going home, and they have Noah Syndergaard pitching in Game 3. We all know he’s dominant at home. It just takes that first win to get things going. You have to like Thor’s chances. It then becomes a series, and that’s where things will get interesting.
Overall, nothing is over. Look how far the Mets are. Look at his they got here. If you don’t think the Mets can pull this off, I don’t know what to tell you other than:
LETS GO METS!
Those 90’s Braves teams were built on pitching. By any measure, the third best pitcher was John Smoltz. However, he was the best postseason pitcher. It’s a big reason why he’s in the Hall of Fame.
Curt Schilling was on the same staff as Randy Johnson with the 2001 Diamondbacks. He was on the same staff as Pedro Martinez in 2004. Again, Schilling was not as good as those legends. However, when the postseason came the manager have Schilling the ball because he was the better postseason pitcher.
Tonight, this is what is on the line for Jacob deGrom. He’s been terrific this postseason. He’s 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 12.2 K/9. He’s won a deciding Game 5 on the road with nothing. Now, he’s on the verge of making major league history:
https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/659434494475292673
You can argue if Matt Harvey or Noah Syndergaard are better. I have. Right now, this isn’t about who’s the better pitcher. It’s about who is the clutch pitcher. Who’s the great postseason pitcher. deGrom is on well on his way to showing he belongs in the class of Smoltz and Schilling. He can cement that status tonight.
He’s the reason Mets fans should be optimistic. He may be the reason why the Mets may win the World Series. It’s time for him to firmly establish his newly earned status as a Big Game Pitcher.
Just like the NLDS, all the Mets have to do is split on the road. After the first two games, the Mets will have Noah Syndergaard for Game 3 in Citi Field.
This is a tremendous advantage for the Mets. Thor is 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA, 0.821 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/9 at home. In the playoffs, he’s 1-1 with a one hold, a 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, and a 13.8 K/9. In his one postseason start at home, in three days rest, he pitched 5.2 innings allowing 3 hits, 1 earned, 1 walk, and 9 K. I don’t care if the Royals feel Yordano Ventura is their ace. Thor is better.
Ventura in four starts this postseason is 0-1 this postseason with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. How am I to believe he will shut down a Mets team that is raking this postseason. Then after this, you can call Game Four a coin flip between Steven Matz and old friend Chris Young. After this, the rotations flip, and the Mets continue their strong starting pitching advantage.
Overall, the more I think about it, this is like 1969. The Mets weren’t supposed to be there. They were underdogs. They started the franchise, Tom Seaver, in Game One. He was the Cy Young Award winner. The Mets superstar and best chance of winning. The Mets lost Game One, and it seemed the sweep was on.
The Mets had a strong young pitching staff that went beyond just Seaver. Jerry Koosman flipped the script with a dominant Game Two performance. The Mets then took care of the Orioles in five.
The moral of the story is the Mets just need to split in Kansas City, and they are in great shape to win this World Series. I think they will win.
LETS GO METS!
Let’s face facts. If not for Madison Bumgarner, this would be a title defense for the Royals as opposed to redemption. It took Bumgarner everything he had to help the Giants win the World Series.
In the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner went 2-0 with 1 save, a 0.43 ERA, 0.476 WHIP, and a 7.3 K/9. He basically said to his teammates, I got three; you just need to get one. In the three games he pitched in, the Royals averaged one run per game. In the other games, the Royals averaged six runs per game. That’s a huge gap.
With all the noise over the Royals hitting the 95+ MPH pitching well, I wanted to see what Bumgarner threw in that World Series:
- 93.40 MPH fastball 52.23% of the time
- 85.04 MPH changeup 3.78% of the time
- 76.25 MPH curve 15.12% of the time
- 87.46 MPH cutter 27.84% of the time
- 67.20 MPH slow curve 1.03% of the time
This shows not only how to beat the Royals but how to pitch in general. You want to establish the fastball and keep the batters off balance with the offspeed pitches. Let’s see how the Mets stud muffins compare this postseason:
- 95.86 MPH fastball 59.56% of the time
- 88.08 MPH change 11.48% of the time
- 90.29 MPH slider 14.75% of the time
- 84.01 MPH curve 14.21% of the time
- 96.23 MPH fastball 37.89% of the time
- 96.44 MPH sinker 18.01% of the time
- 86.54 MPH change 15.84% of the time
- 90.03 MPH slider 12.01% of the time
- 81.63 MPH curve 16.15% of the time
- 98.66 MPH fastball 26.64% of the time
- 98.63 MPH sinker 32.31% of the time
- 89.46 MPH change 16.16% of the time
- 87.96 MPH slider 8.73% of the time
- 81.53 MPH curve 16.16% of the time
What does this information tell us? The Mets three aces pitch similarly to Bumgarner. They establish the fastball and use the same ratio of breaking pitches to keep the hitters off balance. There are two key differences here: (1) Bumgarner is a lefty; and (2) the Royals offense is much improved.
However, keep in mind the Royals couldn’t handle Bumgarner at all last year. Now, the Mets are running out three Bumgarners out there. They will pitch in six of the seven games if necessary.
In the end, I’m not sure how the Royals can keep up their 5.9 runs per postseason game. If they want to beat the Mets they will either have to find a way or pitch much better. If they don’t do either or both, the Mets will win the World Series.