Juan Uribe
There are many out there calling the Mets offseason a success so far. Personally, I don’t see it. Yes, I know the offseason isn’t over, but we’re also pretty sure the Mets aren’t replacing Yoenis Cespedes‘ bat.
Overall, the Mets as constituted now are not better than the team that lost the World Series. Here was the lineup for the team that just lost the World Series, with their respective WAR from the 2015 season:
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- David Wright 0.5
- Daniel Murphy 1.4
- Yoenis Cespedes 6.3
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
Combined 20.9
If the Mets make no other additions this offseason, which still remains a possibility, here’s the Mets 2016 starting lineup with the player’s WAR from last year.
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- Neil Walker 2.4
- David Wright 0.5
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Asdrubal Cabrera 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 17.1
On paper, barring any further additions the 2016 starting lineup is worse than the 2015 World Series team. This is despite how more “athletic” the Mets are in the middle infield. In response, the argument is the Mets are now deeper. Are they? Let’s compare the 2015 and 2016 benches.
Before comparing, it should be noted I’m going to use a traditional 13 position players and 12 pitchers split. That means I will have to eliminate once bench player from the 2015 Mets. I’m choosing to remove Kirk Nieuwenhuis from the roster as he was called up in September.
I’m also dropping Juan Uribe from the 2015 roster. When building a team, you’re going to want a backup shortstop. Uribe doesn’t fit the bill. Since Ruben Tejada was injured, and thus unavailable, I’m replacing him with Matt Reynolds, whom I’m assigning a 0.0 WAR since he didn’t play at all last year.
Here’s the modified 2015 World Series bench:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Matt Reynolds 0.0
- Michael Cuddyer 0.5
- Kelly Johnson 0.3
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 2.3
Here’s the current bench, which would be subject to change with a free agent signing:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
- Ruben Tejada -0.1
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.7
- Eric Campbell -0.5
Combined 1.8
Now to be fair, the 2016 bench will mostly likely not have Eric Campbell on the Opening Day roster. Eliminating his -0.5 would balance out these benches.
Here’s one big problem, if not Campbell then who? Let’s assume Mets fans get their way, and the team signs Denard Span. Span had a 0.7 WAR last year. Yes, that’s the same as Kirk’s. Slotting Span into the everyday lineup has this effect:
- Starting Lineup WAR increased from 17.1 to 17.2
- Bench WAR decreased from 1.8 to 1.7
- Eric Campbell or Kirk Nieuwenhuis is still on the Opening Day roster
Now, first counter-argument will be the offseason isn’t over, so the Mets can still make additional moves. Currently, without any other moves, the Mets payroll stands around $105.7 million. Let’s assume for arguments sake, the Mets have around $10 million to spend. With that $10 million, the Mets are looking to add a reliever, a CF, and another bat.
Span is estimated to receive about $12 million a year. Well, that blows the whole budget. Even assuming the Mets could get Span for less, they’re not going to have enough money for a reliever and another bat after that. So again, chances are either Campbell or Kirk will be in the Opening Day roster.
The next counter-argument is last year’s WAR doesn’t account for full years from Wright, d’Arnaud, or Conforto. This point-of-view is acceptable. However, you also have to acknowledge Granderson may be due for a regression at 35 years of age with a repaired torn ligament in this thumb. Also, based upon their histories, you can’t rely on Wright or d’Arnaud to last a full season. Essentially, while you can expect some players to improve or play more often, you can expect others to regress and/or suffer injuries.
Overall, the Mets still might be able to win the NL East and return to the playoffs in 2016. They will do so because of their pitching. However, objectively speaking, you have to admit the 2016 Mets are and will be weaker than the 2015 Mets team that lost the World Series.
That is unacceptable.
Once Michael Cuddyer‘s retirement was confirmed, seemingly everyone sought out the best way to spend his $12.5 million forfeited salary. The prevailing thought was that the Mets should re-sign Yoenis Cespedes. I do admit for a time being the Mets could’ve better spent their money.
These are interesting and worthwhile discussions, but they also neglect the void Cuddyer leaves behind. I know he was slated to make a lot of money. Money, frankly, that could be better spent elsewhere. Put that aside for a second. That money was already budgeted. Instead, let’s focus on the role Cuddyer was going to play:
- Veteran presence in the clubhouse;
- Solid pinch hitter; and
- Right handed bat against tough lefties.
At a minimum, you knew you could slate him in to give Lucas Duda an occasional day off while having a credible bat and glove at first base. He could take some at bats from Curtis Granderson against lefties. Remember, Granderson has definitive platoon splits, and he will be 35 years old next year. He can also ease the transition of Michael Conforto into his role as an everyday player.
Now, many people will naturally call for Juan Uribe to take his place. It seems like a fit. Uribe was a great addition to the clubhouse, and can spell David Wright at third on occasion. Last year, Uribe was uncomfortable playing first, but he may have more aptitude after having an offseason to prepare for the role. He will also cost much less than $12.5 million.
However, Uribe is not the player Cuddyer is or was. Cuddyer is a career .277/.344/.461 hitter. Last year, Cuddyer hit .259/.309/.391. As a pinch hitter, Cuddyer hits .355/.431/.548. Conversely, Uribe is a career .256/.303/.421 hitter. Last year, he hit .219/.301/.430 with the Mets and .253/.320/.417 overall. As a pinch hitter, Uribe has hit .281/.363/.461.
For the money, sure, you’d probably rather have Uribe. However, that first implies the Mets will reallocate the money (not a given). Second, it ignores the fact that Cuddyer also plays the outfield, which Uribe doesn’t. Lastly, Uribe would be redundant as he would just be signing on to play Wilmer Flores‘ role.
No, to fully replace Cuddyer the Mets need a right handed 1B/OF who can serve as a mentor to the players on the team. Looking at the free agent market that player doesn’t exist. Therefore, finding a replacement for Cuddyer will be next to impossible. The Mets are not a better team after his retirement.
I suppose the biggest testament to the type of player and Cuddyer is is noting that the 2016 Mets are worse off for his retirement.
The facts are the facts. Eric Campbell is just not a very good Major League Baseball player. With that said, I’m alright with the Mets keeping him on the 40 man roster.
Over the past two seasons, the 28 year old Campbell has played 156 games. In those games, he has played every defensive position except centerfield and catcher, and he’s trying to become an emergency catcher. For a part time basis, he’s passable to barely passable at each of these positions. While he’s not great at any position, you can put him in for one game and feel like he’s not going to cost you a game.
Offensively, he’s hit .231/.317/.328. Not that good. His OPS+ is 84, which means he’s not a league average hitter. Looking at his wRC+, he’s at 88, which again means he’s below average. Add all this up, and he’s got a -0.1 career WAR again meaning he’s a below average player. Now that I’m done confirming everything you know about him to be true, here’s some additional information you may not have considered.
Campbell is actually a good pinch hitter. For his career, Campbell has had 54 plate appearances hitting .293/.426/.390. Remember that earlier this year, he had a key go-ahead pinch hit that helped the Mets win a game. He hits the ball hard (statistically speaking). He ran into some bad luck last year with a BABIP of .230, which suggests he hit into a lot of hard luck last year. If those base hits start falling in, his 2015 season looks much better. With BABIP typical being .300, you can expect that better outcome next year.
With all that said, Campbell was left off the roster for both Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. With the Mets, Johnson hit .250/.304/.414. His OPS+ was 99. His WAR was 0.3. His wRC+ was an 87. As a pinch hitter, he’s hit .209/.341/.309. This makes him a very average baseball player.
On the other hand, Juan Uribe hit .219/.301/.430 for the Mets. His OPS+ was 102. His wRC+ was a mere 104. His WAR was 108. However, unlike Johnson and Campbell, he really only plays third now. He did begrudgingly play some second, and he was uncomfortable playing first.
Campbell will most likely be paid something in the vicinity of $500,000 to $600,000. Johnson was just paid $1.5 million next year. I’m presuming Uribevwould fetch around the same amount now. For a bench player who is expected to pinch hit and be versatile, is Johnson really that much better than Campbell? Would you want a bench player who has little to no versatility like Uribe? Are Johnson and Uribe a million dollars or more better than Campbell? I’d argue no.
Even if you believe they are, that’s a reason you sign them to be a utility players on the major league 25 man roster. Campbell is going to be on the 40 man roster being stashed away in the minors in case of an injury. Overall, despite fans ire, Campbell has real value to this Mets team, and he has earned his spot on the 40 man roster.
Does that mean you put yourselves in a position to lose a potential star in the Rule 5 draft to keep Campbell? Of course not. A million times no. However, before getting upset about Campbell consider the following:
- The Mets still have one extra spot on the 40 man roster;
- Ruben Tejada is rumored to be a non-tendered candidate, but the Mets will keep him waste a spot on the 40 man roster; and
- There are other players like Darrell Ceciliani who are much worse than Campbell taking up roster spots.
So, yes, Campbell is a flawed player. That’s why he’s a minor league depth player. It’s why he’s a bench player at best. However, he’s not the worst player on the 40 man roster, and he’s not the reason that the Mets may lose Wuilmer Becerra and Matt Bowman in the Rule 5 draft.
The reason is because the Mets chose to gamble by exposing them or by keeping worse players like Ceciliani on the roster. Campbell has earned his spot on this roster and may yet help the Mets in 2016.
Unfortunately, after quite the colorful year, it seems that the Mets no longer have a spot for Juan Uribe on the roster. It’s a shame because he was a terrific locker room presence and leader. However, there may be a way to keep him around.
As Keith Law mentioned in his chat yesterday, the Mets could consider him as a bench coach. It’s possible the position will be open with Bob Geren interviewing for the Dodgers job. However, he’s not likely to get the job, and the Mets have invited the entire coaching staff to return. Furthermore, Uribe seems to love this game and may not want to retire.
He’s going to be 37 years old. This may be his last year in the majors. Although, I’m sure Uribe will force them to tear the uniform off his back. While his skills are diminishing, I’d like to see the Mets find a way to keep him. At the very least, they should offer him a minor league deal in the event he can’t get a major league deal elsewhere.
He has so much to contribute both this year and in the future. I hope the Mets find a way to keep him in the organization.
Tonight is Halloween, and we’re saying goodbye to the incredible month of Murphtober. If this game goes into the late evening hours, it will be the second time the World Series will go into November (it will anyway).
After Daniel Murphy dominated October, it’s time for a Met to take up the mantle for November. Here are some suggestions:
Curtis Granderson – Grandvember
David Wright – Davember
Daniel Murphy – Murphvember
Yoenis Cespedes – Yovember
Travis d’Arnaud – Travember
Wilmer Flores – Wilvember or Flovember
Juan Lagares & Juan Uribe – Juanvember
Matt Harvey – Harvember
As usual, I’m open to any suggestions you may have.
Lets Go Mets
All I’ve heard everywhere today is the Mets need to get Juan Uribe in the lineup. People are starting to question at what point you sit David Wright. Do you rearrange the lineup? Stop.
Let’s start with Uribe. He’s not a good postseason player. You’re looking to substitute Wright’s .171/.320/.220 triple slash this offseason with Uribe’s career postseason stats of .204/.241/.338. It’s not exactly a massive upgrade especially when you consider Uribe hasn’t played in a month and the fact that he still may not be ready:
Terry Collins says his hesitancy to use Juan Uribe stemmed from chest injury. But #Mets expect Uribe to play a bigger role back at Citi.
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) October 28, 2015
Another consideration is defense. Wright is a much better defensive player. Yes, he made one error in Game 1, but he’s been very good in every game.
With respect to the lineup, what are you changing? Yes, I know Wright’s not hitting. However, go over the stats. The only Mets hitting this postseason are Curtis Granderson, Daniel Murphy, and only recently, Lucas Duda. You still want to go L-R-L in the lineup, so who’s the right that’s hitting? If anyone was tearing it up, if consider it, but they’re not.
David Wright is the captain. He waited a long time for this. He worked hard to get back here. What effect would have on the team if he’s benched or put lower in the lineup. It’s a real consideration.
I’m probably harder on Wright than anyone, but I respect him and his game. That probably goes a million times over for his teammates and the organization. I still hope he comes through in a game. He needs to be in there.
Lets Go Mets!
Terry Collins strengths are in the clubhouse. He’s just not a good in game manager. For the second time this postseason, he’s made decisions that cost the Mets the game.
Not Starting Lagares in CF
The first pitch of the game was a flyball to left center. It was Yoenis Cespedes‘ ball. Since he’s come here, he’s run Michael Conforto off balls like that. Any CF would, it’s an easy play. He turned it into an inside the park homerun.
Cespedes said he looked at Conforto and lost ball. Did not call for it. Back-handed attempt was just to try to get it.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) October 28, 2015
This does not happen if Juan Lagares is playing. A million times over, he’s a better CF than Cespedes. If someone suggests otherwise they know nothing about baseball. The Mets would recover from this, but it shouldn’t have come to that.
Michael Cuddyer Got Three ABs
I’ll admit when Michael Cuddyer pinch hit for Kelly Johnson, I was on board even if the Mets were removing their backup SS. The Royals brought in the left Danny Duffy. It was the right move even if Cuddyer watched a fastball go right down the middle of the plate for strike three.
My problem arose when he got at bats after that. We all know Cuddyer hasn’t been good in the playoffs. He’s looked old and slow. He still got three ABs in Game 1. He ended a rally striking out again in the eighth. He struck out again in the 11th with Lagares in scoring position.
It wasn’t until the 13th that Collins figured out what we all knew: Cuddyer wasn’t getting a hit. By that time the damage was done as Cuddyer had already killed two rallies.
DHing Kelly Johnson
With the Mets roster construction, Johnson is the backup SS. This meant that once he was put in the lineup as DH, the Mets didn’t have their best defensive outfield, nor did they truly have Juan Uribe available.
Urbe was the only backup IF available. Uribe has to be held back just in case. At a minimum, it meant Uribe could not be the first bat off the bench. Collins was forced to pinch hit Cuddyer by his own lineup. I’m not saying Uribe comes through in any of the three situations. He’s had a longer layoff than Cuddyer. What I’m saying is why put him on the roster and not be in a position to use him?
Overall by DHing Johnson, you weaken your defense and limit your bench. It doesn’t make sense. Couple that with the inside the park homerun and Cuddyer killing two rallies, it might’ve cost the Mets the game.
Bunting Flores
Lost in the loss was a great game by Lagares. He set up a run in the eighth with a basehit and a stolen base. He would score when Eric Hosmer couldn’t field Wilmer Flores‘ hard hit bouncer. As we know, this rally would end with a Cuddyer strikeout.
In the eleventh, Lagares lays down a beautiful bunt to get aboard to leadoff the inning. Up comes Flores. It’s true Flores was hitless in the game, but he had good at bats. He was robbed of a extra base hit in the sixth that would’ve expanded the then 3-1 lead. Batting behind him was the 0-2 with two strikeouts lost at the plate Cuddyer. Naturally, he has Flores bunt Lagares over to second.
We know what happens next – Cuddyer strikes out. Effectively, the Mets handed the Royals two outs. Putting aside the statistical data saying sac bunts are a bad idea, it was just a bad move. If you were watching that game you had to say, there’s no way Cuddyer gets a hit here. So why bunt the runner over for him? It does the make sense.
Flores has pop in his bat. He didn’t have a hit, but he was hitting the ball hard and was taking good at bats. Bunting him in that spot showed no sense of the stats, and it showed Collins had no feel for the game.
Going Too Long with Colon
I’ll give Collins some credit. He managed the pitching staff well into the 14th inning. I had no problem with him replacing Jeurys Familia with Jon Niese. Niese was terrific for two innings. I would’ve gone the extra inning, but with him not pitching that much over the past month, I understood pulling him.
I also understood using Bartolo Colon next. However, it was either a bad matchup, or he didn’t have it. All three innings he pitched in, he was in trouble. He was bending, and he finally broke in the 14th.
At that time, the Mets still had not used Hansel Robles or Sean Gilmartin. If you check my Twitter feed, you will see I first guessed Colon pitching to Hosmer with the bases loaded and no outs.
First, Robles has a 10.2 regular season K/9. It was 12.1 in the second half. He’s a better bet to get the strikeout. Second, Robles pitches extremely well against lefties limiting them to .167/.214/.346 triple slash line. Third, Robles is capable of pitching multiple innings, if necessary.
Instead, Collins again showed a remarkable lack of feel for the game by sending Colon out for his third inning and/or letting him face Hosmer. You let Robles try to get out of the jam. Then you still have another well rested long man in Gilmartin to take over. Maybe the Mets still lose; maybe they don’t.
Overall, it was the players on the field who lost. They relinquished 3-1 and 4-3 leads. However, Collins never put them in a position to succeed. It’s why they lost Game 1. Collins can’t have another one of these games, nor can the Mets.
Even after last night debacle, the Mets were close to winning. They were in the exact position they wanted to be in, but it didn’t work out. Everyone needs to be better tonight, Collins especially. They can be.
Lets Go a Mets!
He’s worked hard to get to this point, and the Mets have rewarded the work by adding Juan Uribe to the World Series roster:
Juan Uribe is on the #Mets World Series roster. Matt Reynolds is off.
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) October 27, 2015
The Case for Uribe
This team turned around with the Uribe trade. He’s been on World Series winners in 2005 and 2010. You’re hoping for a little five year luck there.
Unlike most teams, the Royals have two lefties in the pen with Danny Duffy and Franklin Morales. Adding Uribe gives the Mets an extra right handed bat off the bench. After Michael Cuddyer the Mets can turn to Uribe. This allows Juan Lagares to be a defensive replacement, and Kevin Plawecki to be ready for a Travis d’Arnaud injury. Don’t worry I tapped on every piece of wood within the nearest square mile after typing that.
Additionally, it lengthens the bench. In a way, it’s amazing the Mets playing with a 24 man roster never caught up with them. In actuality, there was no way Matt Reynolds was going to play. At least now, the Mets don’t have a dead roster spot.
I have to say it’s a pretty convincing case. I still don’t like the move.
The Case Against Uribe
The last time the Mets thought Uribe could go, he exacerbated his chest injury. If that happens in the World Series, the Mets will be burning through 3-4 players in one at bat (original player, Uribe, new batter, defensive replacement). If this happens in Citi Field, this team is in real trouble.
The next reason is your backup SS is now Kelly Johnson. He’s only played one game at SS, and that was this year. He’s the DH in Game One. If anything happens to Wilmer Flores, the Mets have a terrible choice to make. Do you lose the DH? Do you move David Wright and his back there? Do you put Uribe there? Or my personal favorite:
Is everyone forgetting they can put Jacob deGrom at SS in a pinch?
— Joe DeMayo (@PSLToFlushing) October 27, 2015
Yes, the Mets can put Reynolds on the roster for the injured player, but that’s only AFTER the game. If anything happens to Flores, you’re playing a game without a SS [insert Flores isn’t a SS jokes here]. How quickly the Mets have forgotten that Flores almost had to leave Game 4 of the NLCS after hitting his head.
Furthermore, you’re risking a lot for someone who’s not a terrific hitter. In his playoff career, he has hit .204/.241/.338. As a Met, he has hit .219/.301/.430. As a pinch hitter this year, he has hit .190/.320/.333. He’s 0-4 this year as a DH. It’s just too much to risk for someone that really only plays third and just doesn’t hit the way you think he does.
Yes, he can change a game and a series with one swing of the bat. It still doesn’t change the fact that this move is extremely risky. I hope he does not only because he’s a Mets fan, but also he’s a big part of this team.
Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst.
With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings.
Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?
Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K
Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:
Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K
In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:
Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K
Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this? Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow? It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:
March/April .208/.269/.349
May .222/.282/.364
June .235/.298/.367
July .252/.324/.365
August .243/.305/.412
September/October .275/.335/.426
Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will.