The Royals named Edison Volquez as their Game One starter. The Volquez-Johnny Cueto decision wasn’t like what the Mets faced before in the playoffs. However, it merited consideration, and the Royals went with Volquez.
This year Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.308 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. That’s where the good ends for Volquez. In his career, he is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s been slightly better this postseason going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.1 K/9. In the end, what matters most is how he’s pitched against the Mets:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB and 2 K
Combined 18-99 (.182 BA), 12 BB (.270 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.253 slugging), 11 RBI, and 22 K
Here’s how the bench has fared against Volquez:
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kelly Johnson 4-14 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-0
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench 6-23 (.263) with 3 BB (.346 OBP), 2 double (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, 1 K
In essence, Volquez had pitched well against the Mets. However, the Mets players have gotten to him. When the Mets have made contact, they’ve hit homeruns. It’ll be tough to hit homers in a stadium like Kauffman.
Fortunately, the Mets have better pitching than the Royals. If the Mets pitch how they should, they will need just one of those blasts to win the game, similar to the NLDS.
It seemed like the immediate narrative after the conclusion of both League Championship Series was the Mets biggest strength may not be a strength in the World Series:
Royals vs. 95-mph+ pitches, MLB ranks in parentheses:
BA: .284 (1st)
SLG: .432 (2nd)
K%: 15.1% (1st)Mets throw the most 95-mph+ pitches.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 24, 2015
As we all know, the Mets greatest strength is its good young pitching. The Mets pitching throws it hard and over 95 MPH:
- Matt Harvey – 96.54 MPH four seamer and 96.11 MPH sinker
- Jacob deGrom – 95.81 MPH four seamer and 95.49 MPH sinker
- Noah Syndergaard – 97.75 MPH four seamer and 97.78 MPH sinker
- Steven Matz 94.57 MPH four seamer
- Jeurys Familia 98.21 MPH four seamer and 97.66 MPH sinker
That’s not good news. Fortunately for the Mets, that’s not the whole story. While the Royals hit high heat well, they do not hit offspeed pitching and breaking balls well. The Royals are only hitting .220 on pitches 87 MPH and below. The highest percentage of Mets pitches this postseason was in this range.
We saw it in the NLCS. The Mets did throw their 95+ MPH fastballs, but they also mixed in their offspeed and breaking pitches early. The Mets pitching isn’t great just because of their fastballs. They’re great because they pitch great.
During the regular season, the Mets ranked second in WHIP with a 1.18 mark. They ranked fourth with a 3.49 K/BB ratio. They ranked fourth with a 3.43 ERA. They allowed the second least amount of walks, and they were sixth with a .243 batting average against. All said and done, if you want to beat the Mets pitching, you have to beat them. They’re not going to walk you, and they’re not giving up many hits.
This either lines up perfectly for the Royals or it’ll be a complete disaster. The Royals were second to last in walks. They struck out the least amount of times. They were third in team batting average. They were 24th (last in the AL) in homers, but they were 11th in slugging.
Overall, the Royals put a lot of balls in play against a staff that doesn’t allow a lot of hits. At times like this, I’m reminded of the adage of good pitching beats good hitting. It’s worked for the Mets so far this postseason.
On one warm May night, Matt Harvey took the mound. I had never seen anyone as dominant as Harvey was that night. To say he was perfect was an understatement.
Through 6.2 innings, no one could touch him. He had already struck out nine batters. He walked no one. Then Alex Rios stepped to the plate. I remember leaning over to my brother and saying, “this is it right here. He’s the only one that can do it.” Then he did.
Actually, it wasn’t that simple. Rios hit the ball to an out of position Ruben Tejada, who couldn’t get enough on the ball to throw out a speedy Rios. That was all Harvey allowed. After that, he would strike out another three and pitch nine innings needing just 107 pitches. Believe it or not, it was a no decision as the Mets couldn’t score until the tenth inning.
A lot has happened since then. Harvey had Tommy John. He went from fan favorite to villain to fan favorite again. Rios has changed teams twice in the hopes of making the postseason. He did this year. In Game One, he faces off against Matt Harvey for the first time since that fateful at bat.
Yet again, Alex Rios stands in the way of the Mets making history. It’s time to rewrite the ending.
Throughout 2015, Jacob deGrom has been the Mets ace. He deserved to get the ball in the first game of the playoffs. He delivered not once, not twice, but in all three of his postseason starts. So why hand the ball to Matt Harvey now?
First, it was his turn in the rotation. Players are creatures of habit. This goes doubly so for starting pitchers. There’s no need to take the pitchers out of their routine right now, especially with a long layover after sweeping the Cubs.
Second, deGrom needs a little more rest. His velocity has dipped by about three MPH. He’s had less control going from 71.7% strikes to just 61.5% in the NLCS. In addition, deGrom could benefit from extra rest. During the regular season, he posted a 2.63 ERA with more than five days of rest. That’s worse than his four day rest (1.47 ERA) numbers, but it is better than his five days rest numbers (3.27 ERA).
Third, Harvey may have more availability:
TC to Matt Harvey on Game 1:
"You ready for it?"
Harvey: "Damn right"
And on working Game 7 in relief:
"I'll be ready."
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) October 24, 2015
We saw the advantage it was having Noah Syndergaard available in Game 5 of the NLDS. You want your best pitchers as much as possible. That should include Harvey pitching in Game 7. Note, I believe deGrom would go to the whip as well if the roles were reversed.
Fourth, Harvey is pitching a little better right now. In his last start, Harvey pitched 7.2 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 earned, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts. He was perfect through four. I’m not sure the Cubs even get a run in the game if not for a Juan Lagares misplay.
In his last start deGrom pitched well. He pitched 7.0 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 earned, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts. It’s picking nits, but deGrom wasn’t as good as Harvey. However, when you have three great starting pitchers, picking nits is all you have.
Fifth, through all of it Harvey might just be the better pitcher. It doesn’t change the fact that deGrom had a better year, but Harvey has better stuff. No, I don’t have something to link here. It’s just my belief. Harvey has pitched extremely well coming off of Tommy John surgery; the year in which pitchers struggle the most. Harvey has his same repertoire of pitches and added a curveball. He has more ways to get you out.
Overall, I’d go with Harvey. You can make an excellent case for deGrom as well. You can make a compelling case for Thor as well. In the end, that’s the best news. We’re arguing over three pitchers who would all arguably take the ball in Game One for the Royals.
Sometimes, minor discussions like this gives you the biggest hope the Mets will win this World Series.
If there’s one thing that drives me crazy every year, it’s position by position breakdowns. I see it with the Subway Series. It is done with the playoffs. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com did one of these. It was well thought out and put together. However, it really doesn’t mean anything.
I don’t say this to diminish his work. I’m just tired of the story. I’ve seen the feedback to the breakdown. The biggest argument people seem to have is Lorenzo Cain as being a better CF than Yoenis Cespedes. The focus there is misplaced and not just because he was right. It’s misplaced because Cain doesn’t battle Cespedes. No position player battles another one unless Chase Utley is involved.
Think about any position to position breakdown you might see. Does it really matter if someone has Wade Davis or Jeurys Familia as the better closer? Think about it. Even if Davis is a better closer, do Mets fans really think Familia is going to blow a save because Davis is better? Are the Mets going to lose this series because the Royals have a better SS? Are the Mets going to win because they have the better RF? Of course not.
The Mets will win or lose because of matchups and in game maneuvers. The Mets will win because they have the better pitching. The Mets may lose because the Royals have superior team defense, speed, and bullpen. This is what people should analyze.
It’s exactly what I did in the NLDS and NLCS in predicting a Mets victory. It’s the right way to do it. I’ll have a prediction tomorrow. I hope the numbers again (and not just my heart) will point to the Mets
Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst.
With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings.
Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?
Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K
Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:
Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K
In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:
Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K
Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this? Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow? It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:
March/April .208/.269/.349
May .222/.282/.364
June .235/.298/.367
July .252/.324/.365
August .243/.305/.412
September/October .275/.335/.426
Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will.
In June if you told Mets fans Ben Zobrist would be traded, and his new team would make the World Series, they would’ve been excited. At one point, it seemed a foregone conclusion Zobrist would be a Met. Thankfully, that deal fell apart, and the Mets made better trades that provided the Mets with better talent and depth.
In any event, Zobrist became a Royal for a hefty price. It’s no surprise the Royals were going for it after losing the World Series last year by 90 feet. Since this trade, Zobrist has played LF and 2B for the Royals. As a Royal, he has hit .284/.364/.453. These are good numbers, but the Mets were better off without Zobrist.
If he played second base, he would have surplanted Daniel Murphy at second base. That would’ve mean no #Murphtober, and quite possibly, the Mets lose the NLDS.
If the Mets moved him to LF, that probably would’ve meant no Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes was an immediate spark plug after the trade. He was so good early on, there was talk of him becoming the NL MVP. The Mets went on 37-22 after the trade, which is a .627 winning percentage or a 102-60 pace.
Zobrist in LF also would’ve meant no Michael Conforto. He made the jump from A ball to the majors. He hit .270/.335/.506. He was much better than advertised defensively. He had good range with a strong, accurate arm. He’s got a bit of the clutch gene homering in his first postseason game off of Zack Greinke.
Also, you don’t know what the A’s were asking for Zobrist. Some of the other deals that took place may not have happened. One of the strengths of the Mets have bee a deep bench giving Terry Collins the ability to platoon.
There was a time if Mets fans had heard Zobrist was traded in season and helped his new team into the World Series, they would’ve been giddy. It was largely assumed he would wind up with the Mets. He didn’t.
Because of that, both the Mets and the Royals made the World Series.
In Game One of the NLCS, a comebacker hit Matt Harvey in the right arm. The ball was said to have “dented” Harvey’s triceps putting his next start into question. When questioned about it, Harvey gave a Narrator type of response:
"I'm not a trainer. I'm not Harvey's arm." That's David Wright's medical assessment of Matt Harvey for Game 5
— Mike Vorkunov (@MikeVorkunov) October 19, 2015
“I’m not Harvey’s arm” is what the Narrator would say. It reminded me of Jack’s writings found in the Paper Street House. I could see the Narraor reading something entitled “I am Harvey’s Dented Tricep.” The next line would be something along the lines of “I injure Harvey and I ruin his career.”
For all we know, Harvey is Tyler Durden. If I’m right that makes Bartolo Colon Robert Paulson. It would also make Noah Syndergaard Angel Face. When Colon gets knocked out early in the game getting roughed up, I could see Thor leading the pitching staff in a “His name is Bartolo Colon” chant.
It could also explain some of Harvey’s behavior. When he’s talking about innings limits and his career, he’s being the narrator. When he’s complaining about the six man rotation, he’s Tyler Durden. The Tyler Durden side of his wants to throw acid all over his career screaming, “First you have to bear down, first you have to know, not fear, know that someday your career is going to be over.”
This Harvey, err Durden, wants to pitch three times in the World Series. He wants to unleash his pitching repertoire causing mayhem and confusion on the Royals bench. The Royals won’t be talented or uniquely talented; they’ll all be strikeout victims. I can see the Royals saying they haven’t been struck out that way since grade school.
Pretty clever, huh? Good I’ll keep it up then.
He’s going to stand on the mound in Game 1 of the World Series and say, “I want you to hit me as hard as you can.” When he strikes them out, he’ll lecture them saying, “Listen to me! You have to consider the possibility that God does not like you, never wanted you, and in all probability he HATES you.” He’ll strike them out because they’re too young, too fat, too old.
At the end of the games, all stories will be “I am Harvey’s Game One victory.”
In a postseason where the Mets have been slaying demons, there is one Phillie left. In the NLDS, the Mets dispatched with Jimmy Rollins and the dirty and cowardly Chase Utley. There is one member of that 2007-2008 Phillies team left: Ryan Madson. He may not garner the same reaction as Utley and Rollins, but he was still a large part of those Phillies teams.
Just like 2008, Madson is a key set-up man on the Royals. After not appearing on a major league roster for four years, he resurfaced and had his typically good season. He went 1-2 with a 2.13 ERA, 0.963 WHIP, and a 8.2 K/9. This postseason he’s been hittable in the 5.1 innings he’s pitched. He’s got a 2.25 WHIP and a 8.44 ERA.
He’s gone from major strength to liability. It may just be a short sample size. It may be his four year layoff out of the major leagues. Hopefully, it’s the latter because he’s been good against the Mets. In 61 games (1 start), he has a 2.87 ERA with a 1.149 WHIP and a 7.6 K/9.
I’m not sure all of that matters. The only Mets remaining from that time are David Wright and Daniel Murphy, who is playing on a different level. With that said, it probably matters to the fans more. And yes, I care. I want that World Series. I don’t like the idea of another 2007-2008 Phillie standing in the way.
It’s time for those Phillies to go away for good.
Before the playoffs began, my Dad, brother, and I went in together and got three World Series tickets. It was more than we wanted to spend, but it is theWorld Series. This opportunity does not come often for Mets fans.
I was so excited after the NLCS, I though about getting more tickets. They are quite expensive. If you want to go with a friend, it’ll cost you $650.00 to get a seat (plus fees). Seeing that it made me consider going to Kauffman Stadium for the World Series.
If you want to go to Kansas City, it’ll cost you only $360.00 per seat (plus fees) for Game 1. It’s much cheaper, but here’s the problem. You have to get there. The cheapest flight will cost you $1,027, so you’re going to have to drive. The trip will take about 20 hours (with stops). Realistically, you’re going to have to stay overnight.
If you leave Monday and stay the night after Game 2, the hotel will cost $39 per night or $117 total (plus fees). Dividing between two people, that’s $58.50 per person. While you’re there, you might want to go to another game. On Stubhub, an additional ticket will cost $359.00 per seat. All said and done, it will cost you $777.50 to attend two games in Kansas City.
Therefore, it would only cost you an additional $127.50 to go to two games in Kansas City. While you’re there, you can also have some great BBQ and go to the Negro League Baseball Museum ($10.00 admission). I know $777.50 is s lot of money, but if you’re shelling out this much money, what’s the extra $127.50.
If I could get the time off and didn’t have a son I couldn’t stay a night away from, I’d be making the reservations now myself. The only downside I see is you won’t be amongst Mets fans.