Hot Stove
If you’ve read Andy Martino’s Winter Meetings article, there’s a lot to digest. There’s many ways to go, but first I wanted to address the Asdrubal Cabrera situation.
As you well know, the Mets acquired Cabrera. Depending on your point-of-view, Cabrera may or may not be an upgrade at shortstop. He’s a weaker defender. You’re relying on a good second half being a sign that he’s ready to overcome his struggles of the past five seasons. For all that, the Mets signed him to a two year $18.5 million contract. It’s a contract that might’ve depended on what Ben Zobrist did.
Supposedly, the Mets were willing to sign Zobrist to a four year $60 million contract. That would’ve been an average annual value of $15 million per year. This is what the Mets conveyed to Zobrist’s agent, Alan Nero, who coincidentally represents Cabrera. The Mets talked about both players with the agent. However, pay careful attention to this quote:
Before Zobrist made his decision, [Assistant GM John] Ricco felt he had to approach the pursuit of Cabrera delicately. The Mets needed to appear interested, but not so much that Nero thought they were turning away from Zobrist. Now, with that barrier lifted, Ricco and his group go hard after Cabrera, offering a two year, $18.5 million deal, and landing him that night. The process is simple: Will you take our money? Yes? Great, we have a deal.
I’m sure there are a number of ways to reasonably interpret that statement. Personally, I interpret it as the Mets didn’t have $24+ million in their budget, at least not for the middle infield. From the beginning of their conversations, Cabrera was a fallback option.
As Mets fans, we were informed if attendance increased than payroll would increase. Well, attendance increased. As a result, the Mets revenue increased somewhere between $45 – 60 million. Now, before the Mets made any moves, their projected payroll was going to be around $92 million. Adding $24 million to the middle infield would’ve increased the payroll to $116 million.
Keep in mind with that $116 million payroll, the Mets infield and rotation would’ve been locked down. You could’ve justified not pursuing a Yoenis Cespedes because you would’ve shown to everyone, let alone your fan base, that:
- The Mets were willing to outbid everyone to get the most coveted free agent on the market;
- You were willing to spend to address what you saw as a position of need; and
- You would’ve actually increased the payroll.
After having minimum $45 million in extra revenue, Cabrera should not have been contingent on Zobrist. The Mets should’ve been able to bring in both players. Either they are still facing budget constraints from the Madoff scandal, or the team doesn’t feel compelled to have a league average payroll despite whatever promises were made.
In any event, the Mets fans have been lied to by this team. It’s not alright. Attendance and revenues significantly increased. There will be a modest increase in payroll. This should make you question everything they do this offseason. Was Neil Walker really an improvement over Daniel Murphy, or is the team just selling that to us? Did the Mets trade Jon Niese because it was a reasonable deal, or was it because they needed to shed some payroll to have enough room for Walker and Cabrera?
I just look forward to the next free agent move, if there will be one. I’m curious how they’ll sell it to the fans. I wonder how much there’s left in the budget. These questions are more than reasonable and fair after reading this article.
Look, there are reasons why a team wouldn’t want either Daniel Murphy or Yoenis Cespedes. However, I can’t believe the #3 and #4 hitters for an NL Pennant winner have no market right now.
At different points this year both of the players showed their value. They showed how they can carry a team for almost one month at a time. Cespedes carried the Mets in August. Murphy carried the Mets in October. They were clutch. They were essential members of their teams. They both seem to have no suitors on the free agent market.
As for Murphy, the Mets went out to the trade market to get Neil Walker rather than sign Murphy to a deal. The Nationals have seemingly done the same by seeking to acquire Brandon Phillips. The Nationals are going this route despite needing a quality left handed bat. As for other teams, it’s pure conjecture on who would be interested.
That’s the same situation for Cespedes. The only thing we know about his market is his last two teams are out on him. The Mets aren’t interested in re-signing the CF who helped them go to the playoffs. The Tigers apparently don’t want their Gold Glove LF to return.
We know markets for these players should eventually develop, but I’m surprised it’s taking this long. If I were the Mets I would seek to move in quickly with shorter term deals to try to acquire these players. While I wouldn’t be thrilled with Cespedes in CF, I wouldn’t object to him signing a short term deal or a deal with an early opt out. As for Murphy, I still like the idea of bringing him back. I like the idea especially because of David Wright‘s back.
We’ll see what happens next. I know I’m even more intrigued because I didn’t see either player going unsigned for this long.
In looking to fill out their bench, the Mets have shown some interest in Ryan Raburn. As a right handed bat, you could do worse.
Last year was the best year of Raburn’s career. He set career highs in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging. It’s odd, but it’s not unusual for a player to have a career year at 34. It’s definitely strange that someone coming off a .301/.393/.543 season didn’t have his $3 million option picked up. It’s strange even if the team was a mid-market team like the Indians. It really makes you question what is happening there.
What’s happening was Raburn was limited to just 82 games. No, he wasn’t injured. It’s just that the Indians really limited him to playing against lefties. He had 176 plate appearances against lefties and only 25 against righties. It was a decision that makes sense. In his career, Raburn has hit .250/.297/.326 against righties and .264/.339/.487.
Looking at Raburn, two other players immediately come to mind. The first was Scott Hairston, who had some success in a similar role with the Mets. Where Hairston got into trouble was when a Mets team lacking depth had to play him more frequently than they would’ve liked. The other player was John Mayberry, Jr., who hit .164/.227/.318 in 59 games with the Mets. He was released in July.
Why was Hairston successful where Mayberry wasn’t? Who knows? They’re bench players. Bench players typically can’t be relied upon for yearly consistency. The main reason is you’re always relying on a small sample size.
Looking at his career numbers, we see Raburn hits lefties well, but nowhere near as well as he hit them last year. We see a player who is a poor pinch hitter with a triple slash line of .184/.309/.368 in 136 plate appearances (small sample size). We also see a player who is predominantly a corner OF. Here’s his games played by position over his 10 year career:
- 1B – 9 games
- 2B – 143 games
- 3B – 27 games
- LF – 261 games
- CF – 28 games
- RF – 171 games
- DH – 93 games
Last year, he only played left, right, and DH. He was predominantly a DH. It’s surprising because he’s been an average fielder. You know what he isn’t? A first baseman. You’re not a first baseman if you play 9 games there in 10 years. It doesn’t mean he can’t play there. It means we don’t know. If you remember with Mike a Piazza playing first is easier said than done.
Raburn would be an improvement over a player like Eric Campbell with his hitting against lefties. Campbell has hit .220/.318/.339 in 149 plate appearances. It should be noted, even if for argument’s sake, Campbell is a slightly better defender, a better bet at first base, and a much better pinch hitter. Campbell is a career .293/.426/.390 pinch hitter in 54 plate appearances.
So who would I rather have? Raburn. He’s the better player. However, if signing Raburn stands in the way of the Mets making a significant addition, then I’m alright with the Mets proceeding with Campbell on the bench. Overall, while Raburn is an improvement, he’s not so much of an improvement that he’s worth losing out on another player.
I’m not so much interested in Raburn as much as I’m interested as in what a Raburn signing would mean for the Mets.
While reading up on my nightmare scenario of Daniel Murphy signing with the Nationals, I noticed something interesting. Look at this blurb from MLB Trade Rumors:
At the time of this writing [December 16, 2015], it’s not exactly clear who the leading teams are for the infielder, who turns 31 in April. The incumbent Mets apparently haven’t ruled out a reunion with Murphy, though they would like to sign him to a one- or two-year deal.
(Emphasis added, internal links omitted)
It’s a fascinating scenario. By reintroducing Murphy to the mix, you’re creating even more infield depth and even more versatility. With Neil Walker‘s platoon splits, Murphy can effectively platoon there. When David Wright needs to rest his back, Murphy can play there. Murphy can also play some first base allowing Lucas Duda to sit occasionally against the really nasty lefties.
Sure, you could argue he’s usurping Wilmer Flores‘ role. However, Murphy is a much better player. You’d rather have Murphy playing over Flores. Furthermore, that frees up Flores to focus on SS and possibly work on learning the OF to give Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto the occasional day off, especially against lefties.
The move makes sense except for the following reasons:
- You’re asking Murphy to accept a reduced role and contract;
- You’re expecting Walker to accept a reduced role in a contract year; and
- You’re expecting Flores to be an effective MI and corner OF.
Unfortunately, it seems like the rumor was outdated. It was before the Mets obtained Walker. It seems unlikely Murphy will return to the Mets. I got excited for a minute until I realized it wasn’t realistic. Upon further review, it wasn’t.
However, it would’ve been interesting.
There are many out there calling the Mets offseason a success so far. Personally, I don’t see it. Yes, I know the offseason isn’t over, but we’re also pretty sure the Mets aren’t replacing Yoenis Cespedes‘ bat.
Overall, the Mets as constituted now are not better than the team that lost the World Series. Here was the lineup for the team that just lost the World Series, with their respective WAR from the 2015 season:
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- David Wright 0.5
- Daniel Murphy 1.4
- Yoenis Cespedes 6.3
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
Combined 20.9
If the Mets make no other additions this offseason, which still remains a possibility, here’s the Mets 2016 starting lineup with the player’s WAR from last year.
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- Neil Walker 2.4
- David Wright 0.5
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Asdrubal Cabrera 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 17.1
On paper, barring any further additions the 2016 starting lineup is worse than the 2015 World Series team. This is despite how more “athletic” the Mets are in the middle infield. In response, the argument is the Mets are now deeper. Are they? Let’s compare the 2015 and 2016 benches.
Before comparing, it should be noted I’m going to use a traditional 13 position players and 12 pitchers split. That means I will have to eliminate once bench player from the 2015 Mets. I’m choosing to remove Kirk Nieuwenhuis from the roster as he was called up in September.
I’m also dropping Juan Uribe from the 2015 roster. When building a team, you’re going to want a backup shortstop. Uribe doesn’t fit the bill. Since Ruben Tejada was injured, and thus unavailable, I’m replacing him with Matt Reynolds, whom I’m assigning a 0.0 WAR since he didn’t play at all last year.
Here’s the modified 2015 World Series bench:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Matt Reynolds 0.0
- Michael Cuddyer 0.5
- Kelly Johnson 0.3
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 2.3
Here’s the current bench, which would be subject to change with a free agent signing:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
- Ruben Tejada -0.1
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.7
- Eric Campbell -0.5
Combined 1.8
Now to be fair, the 2016 bench will mostly likely not have Eric Campbell on the Opening Day roster. Eliminating his -0.5 would balance out these benches.
Here’s one big problem, if not Campbell then who? Let’s assume Mets fans get their way, and the team signs Denard Span. Span had a 0.7 WAR last year. Yes, that’s the same as Kirk’s. Slotting Span into the everyday lineup has this effect:
- Starting Lineup WAR increased from 17.1 to 17.2
- Bench WAR decreased from 1.8 to 1.7
- Eric Campbell or Kirk Nieuwenhuis is still on the Opening Day roster
Now, first counter-argument will be the offseason isn’t over, so the Mets can still make additional moves. Currently, without any other moves, the Mets payroll stands around $105.7 million. Let’s assume for arguments sake, the Mets have around $10 million to spend. With that $10 million, the Mets are looking to add a reliever, a CF, and another bat.
Span is estimated to receive about $12 million a year. Well, that blows the whole budget. Even assuming the Mets could get Span for less, they’re not going to have enough money for a reliever and another bat after that. So again, chances are either Campbell or Kirk will be in the Opening Day roster.
The next counter-argument is last year’s WAR doesn’t account for full years from Wright, d’Arnaud, or Conforto. This point-of-view is acceptable. However, you also have to acknowledge Granderson may be due for a regression at 35 years of age with a repaired torn ligament in this thumb. Also, based upon their histories, you can’t rely on Wright or d’Arnaud to last a full season. Essentially, while you can expect some players to improve or play more often, you can expect others to regress and/or suffer injuries.
Overall, the Mets still might be able to win the NL East and return to the playoffs in 2016. They will do so because of their pitching. However, objectively speaking, you have to admit the 2016 Mets are and will be weaker than the 2015 Mets team that lost the World Series.
That is unacceptable.
Today, Michael Mayer broke yet another big Mets story. This time it was the Mets re-signing Bartolo Colon to a one year $7.25 million contract. Most Mets fans rejoiced. Personally, I don’t get the love affair.
When I look at Colon’s Mets career, I see an ERA+ of 86, which means he was below average. He had a 4.13 ERA while pitching half his games in a pitcher’s park. The best argument you could make for his Mets career is: (1) he had an average FIP of 3.77; and (2) he didn’t miss a start. Why is it a player who’s average at best a folk hero? It has to be more than this play:
Maybe it’s because of at bats like this, but I can’t imagine why:
Fact is, he’s not even that good. He’s not going to be any younger. Next year, he’s going to be 43 years old. Why would you want him over Jon Niese? Niese was at minimum just as good as Colon. More likely he was better and will be better next year at 29. He also showed himself more capable in the bullpen that Colon. Throw in the two extra years of control Niese has, and you’ve downgraded your rotation and possibly your bullpen.
Fair or not, I’ll remember Colon’s failings in the World Series. In Game 1, he walked a tightrope walk for two innings before imploding in his third inning of work earning the loss in a very frustrating game. In Game 5, he entered the game to clean up Addison Reed‘s mess. The Mets were down 4-2, and the bases were loaded with one out. Colon would allow a bases clearing double to the first batter he faced putting the game and World Series out of reach.
I don’t blame Colon for all that happened in the World Series. He may not have been put in the best position to succeed. Fact is, he didn’t succeed. I don’t hold it against him. However, I do look at it and ask why is this 43 year old pitched so revered? If the same thing happened to Niese, the fans would’ve ran him out of town. Colon? It’s like it never happened. I just don’t get it.
Someone please explain it to me.
It was unofficial for quite some time, but it finally happened. Dillon Gee is an ex-Met. I’m still not 100% sure how or why this happened.
Gee’s entire career might be the one positive contribution from Jerry Manuel. Manuel like him, and it gave someone who wasn’t a big prospect a chance. Gee took advantage of his chance. In his first call-up he went 2-2 in five starts with a 2.18 ERA and a 1.212 WHIP.
In 2014, he was named the Opening Day starter. This was in part due to the Mets options at the time. It was also a testament to Gee’s resiliency. Just two years prior, he needed surgery to repair an aneurysm in his throwing shoulder. From 2010 – 2014, Gee would go 40-34 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP. Every so often, he’d threaten to be the first Met to throw a no-hitter. Not bad for a guy who got guys out with locating his pitches. Not bad for a guy who had a sub 90s fastball.
Unfortunately, it just didn’t happen for Gee this year. It’s a shame because he was a winner on Mets teams that were losing. He deserved a chance to go out a winner. Instead he pitched sporadically, had constantly changing roles without notice, and he suffered a groin strain. They never recall him. They gave his number to someone else. Instead of sticking by him, the Mets designated him for assignment. While the Mets were making a World Series run, Gee was no longer a free agent. He was a class act about it:
Congrats @Mets. So happy fo yall. First offseason I'll actually want to watch baseball. Can't wait!!
— Dillon Gee (@DillonGee35) September 26, 2015
Congrats boys! #NLPennant #WorldSeries2015 @Mets
— Dillon Gee (@DillonGee35) October 22, 2015
Gee is now a member of the Royals organization. The team that just won the World Series with character guys got another one. The Mets will feel his loss. After the Jon Niese–Neil Walker trade, the Mets need a fifth starter. The common response is the Mets should bring back 42 year old Bartolo Colon.
I’d rather have Gee back. He gave the Mets everything he had each and every time he toed the rubber. In many ways, he was never supposed to be a Met and/or a major leaguer. He took that with him to the mound every time. He deserved better than how he was treated in 2015. I hope he gets that better treatment next year with the Royals.
Thank you for your time with the Mets.
I am reminded of being in the seventh grade. I grew a lot, especially my feet. It must’ve been beyond annoying and expensive for my parents. My mother always insisted on good footwear. My father on the other hand always looked for a deal.
We went to Fayva Shoes (remember that place?). There was some insane sale where if you purchased one shoe, you got the next one half off. The strange thing about this sale was if you got a third it was half-off the half-off price (for example, a $20 sneaker cost $5). Basically, every sneaker after the first one followed this computation.
Anyway, my father made me pick out a shoe that I liked (or hated least). He then literally purchased that sneaker in every half size up to a size 13. His theory was he’d never have to buy me another sneaker again. Plus, he got me a sneaker that cost $0.30. Not an exaggeration. Side note to this story is his plan never would’ve worked as my feet are about a size 14.
Guess how well this worked out? C’mon, we were able to purchase a sneaker for $0.30. They were flimsy sneakers. I was playing football, juked, rolled my ankle, and broke my foot. We may have had a sneaker that cost $0.30, but now there was also medical bills. It was penny wise, pound foolish.
The Neil Walker trade is the Mets $0.30 pair of sneakers. We can reasonably argue over whether Walker or Daniel Murphy is the better player. You want to tell me it’s Walker, fine. However, as a result of obtaining Walker for Niese, the Mets now have to look to acquire a fifth starter. By the way, you’re looking for a fifth starter who will agree to only pitch for half the year because at that point Zack Wheeler will return. Good luck with that.
I know Murphy is a free agent, but Ben Zobrist‘s deal was for an average annual value of $14 million a year. Murphy will probably get $2 million less a year than Zobrist. Yes, it would probably be $2 million more than Walker will receive in arbitration. However, Murphy can serve as insurance for David Wright‘s back, whereas Walker can’t.
Sure, the Mets did sign Asdrubal Cabrera. Whether you like the move or not, we should all be able to agree $12 million to Murphy and $9 million to Niese shouldn’t have precluded that signing especially since the Mets aren’t pursuing Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes. Instead, the Mets need to convince a starting pitcher to start for only half a year and an everyday player to accept being in a centerfield platoon with Juan Lagares.
This is ultimately why the Walker deal was a bad trade. The Mets weakened themselves in the rotation without a clear cut replacement in a market where pitchers are getting big deals. Ultimately, the Walker deal had to be about money as he and Niese are going to make similar money, give or take a million.
My $0.30 sneakers? Well, they would have to donated, i.e. we got rid of them. That’s what the Mets will do with Walker after this year. I just hope Walker will be a better fit before he’s gone.
Going into last year, the Mets were well noted for their organizational pitching depth. It wasn’t just the pitchers that were in the majors, but it was also the pitchers on the way. The thought process was the Mets could select the pitchers to keep to help the rotation and trade the others for a bat.
Well, the Mets are going into the 2016 season, and their depth isn’t the same as this regime seems comfortable jettisoning this team’s pitching depth. A large part of the reason was the unwillingness and/or inability to spend in the offseason last year. Here is the list of pitchers gone from the Mets organization:
- Greg Peavey
- Randy Fontanez
- Cory Mazzoni
- Brad Wieck
- Casey Meisner
- John Gant
- Robert Whalen
- Michael Fulmer
- Luis Cessa
- Matt Koch
- Miller Diaz
- Dawrin Frias
- Jack Leathersich
- Jon Niese
- Matthew Bowman
This list doesn’t include Logan Verrett, who was selected in last year Rule 5 draft and returned. It also doesn’t include Tyler Clippard, Bartolo Colon, Eric O’Flaherty, Bobby Parnell, and Alex Torres because, at least in theory, they all could return to the Mets next year. In any event, that’s a lot of pitchers gone and/or potentially gone from the 2014 Winter Meetings and the 2015 Winter Meetings.
After losing all these pitchers, the Mets only have two . . . TWO . . . players on their 2016 major league roster resulting from these moves: Addison Reed and Neil Walker. Also, the Mets still need a fifth starter and possibly bullpen help. You would think after losing 15 pitchers in a year, you’d be in a better position.
Now, the important caveat here is not all of these pitchers are of the same caliber. For example, Peavey and Fontanez were selected in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft. Also, I did defend the trade that brought in Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson. On the flip side, I did not like the trades which brought in Clippard and Yoenis Cespedes.
I’m not in the crowd that justifies these deals due to the Mets winning the pennant. You win the World Series, you’re untouchable because you did what was necessary. However, the Mets lost all that pitching and still fell short. Think of it another way. Do you think the Tigers would’ve traded winning the AL East for John Smoltz‘ career?
With all that said, the Mets still deserve some credit here. Even though they lost all that pitching, they still have good pitching prospects like Robert Gsellman. I just wish they spent more money last offseason and kept some of those pitchers to give them more options to make deals this winter or this upcoming summer.
Keep in mind that sooner or later losing all this pitching will eventually catch up with them. I’m not looking forward to the day that happens.
In my mind the juxtaposition of Neil Walker and Bernard Gilkey is as preposterous as it is hilarious. It’s even more so when you consider Gilkey’s Men in Black cameo:
Despite this, I kept thinking how similar their coming to the Mets was.
Gilkey was St. Louis through and through. He was the local kid playing for the local team. It really is everyone’s dream come true. Gilkey was solid was the Cardinals, but they were looking to improve their team. The Mets had some young prospects in the outfield that they wanted to give more time for development. Naturally, the Mets and Cardinals made a trade.
Leaving your home is hard. It’s even harder to be living your dream only to be waken from it and be shipped to a sub-.500 team. It turns out it was the best thing that happened to Gilkey. He became the rare player who had a better year after leaving the Cardinals.
Gilkey had a career year. It was an all time year for a Mets outfielder. Gilkey hit .317/.393/.562 with 30 home runs and 117 RBI. His 44 doubles is a Mets single season record. He never repeated the performance, but it was a wild ride for a fan base starving for something positive with the Mets. Gilkey helped provide hope that hadn’t been around for years.
Walker arrives to the Mets under different circumstances. Where Gilkey led the big Mets revival, Walker is arriving a year later, but the Mets are still counting on Walker to help them get to the next level. Like Gilkey, Walker is leaving his hometown.
Now, Walker is Pittsburg. He was born and raised there. Having been born in 1985, he probably only knew the bad times. He experienced the 20 consecutive seasons as a fan and as a player. However, it was more than that. He was a key cog in the Pirates team that turned it around and made the Pirates winners. It meant a lot to someone who was a Pittsburgher through and through:
Be a Pittsburgher and love this area with all my heart! God bless you all and have a great holiday season! Thank you thank you thank you….
— Neil Walker (@NeilWalker18) December 10, 2015
There’s also something intersting about Walker, the Pittsburgh native and Pirates farmhand. He’s here for the same reason Roberto Clemente isn’t. Walker’s father was a former player, who had a close friendship with Clemente. Walker’s father was part of Clemente’s charitable efforts. Walker actually helped Clemente load that fateful plane that would crash claiming the life of Clemente and others. It was Clemente that advised Walker Sr. not to get in that plane.
In Saving Private Ryan fashion, Walker earned it. He gave Pittsburgh the local hero that turned them into winners. It’s part of the reason Pirates fans are crushed. I sympathize with them. Seeing how Walker is already working to endear himself to Mets fans, I can see why he was so popular:
Neil Walker will attend Mets holiday party for schoolchildren on Tuesday at Citi Field. Matz is Santa. Terry Collins is elf.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) December 10, 2015
As a Mets fan, I wasn’t a fan of the trade, in part, because it means no more Daniel Murphy. However, I’m rooting for Walker. I want him to succeed in every way. Ironically, I never thought the Mets could get him. I thought pursuing him was a good idea. I just wanted Murphy more. Im hoping he’s better than Murphy. I’m hoping that like Gilkey, Walker can show his hometown team they were wrong for trading him.
Gilkey helped the Mets take the next step. It’s time for Walker to do the same.