Hot Stove
The Mets seemingly have one last opportunity to spend this offseason. They’ve made promises to increase payroll of attendance went up, but they haven’t done so thus far. They’re running out of opportunities to do so as well.
Fans will immediately jump and scream Yoenis Cespedes. I’ll admit that despite my reservations, the Mets should bring him back if it’s a two or three year deal. However, I think Cespedes is still holding out for more. He may go into Spring Training holding out for more. Honestly, if he only gets a three year deal, I would get suspicious there was collision on the free agent market. This is all a round about way to say I don’t think Cespedes is returning.
As far as I see it, there’s one player where you can look at add payroll. Right now, the Mets need someone who can play first base and the corner outfield slots. That is unless Eric Campbell is your guy. Seemingly, I’m the only fan who has any respect for him, so that’s out. The other rumored guys for that spot are Ryan Raburn and Steve Pearce. They could be solid if not spectacular options. There’s one name who’s available that does excite me. Nick Swisher.
The Braves are desperate to move him and will eat a significant part of his contract to move him. They better be for a guy with two surgically replaced knees owed $10 million (Indians are paying $5 million of his $15 million due this year) coming off of a .196/.312/.320 season. With all that said, I still like Swisher. I think he can still help a team as a bench player. I believe he has more upside than Raburn and Pearce.
Yes, he is coming off two consecutive bad years, but it was following surgery on both of his knees. He’s had a full season in his rear view mirror, and hopefully, he knows his limitations and/or what he needs to do to get through a season. Additionally, I like the idea of reuniting him with Kevin Long.
If we remember, Curtis Granderson hit .227/.326/.388 in his first year as a Met. His contract looked like a disaster. In 2015, Granderson was reunited with Long, and he hit .259/.364/.457. At the age of 34, Granderson went from albatross to the Mets MVP.
Swisher hit .268/.367/.483 in four years as a Yankee. It was the best four year stretch of his career. They were all under Kevin Long. Seeing how Lonh helped rejuvenate Granderson, I’m intrigued by what Long could do with Swisher. Sure, Swisher is older than Granderson was, and he has injury problems that Granderson didn’t. However, Long has shown a knack in helping both players. I’d like to see him get another opportunity.
I also like having a switch hitter on the bench. For his career, Swisher hits lefties better, but he’s a viable bench player against lefties and righties. He has hit .243/.334/.453 against righties and .264/.389/.435 against lefties. Considering most of the talent on the current roster fares better against righties, it’s a positive to have a hitter that hits lefties better. It’s also good to have a pinch hitter who will not be neutralized by a pitching change.
The last reason I like Swisher is who he is. Seemingly, every team he was on commented on his enthusiasm. A 162 game schedule is a grind. A player like Swisher can help you through it (although it apparently works better on winning teams). This offseason the Mets have seemingly lost a lot of character and glue guys from the team. If you’re filling out a bench, it’s probably a good thing to add a guy who keeps the clubhouse upbeat.
We know the issues with Swisher. He’s going to be more expensive than the alternatives. He’s had two knee surgeries. He’s going to cost a player. However, it has seemingly affected him more at the plate than in the field. Also, he has more upside at the plate and in the clubhouse. I’d buy low on Nick Swisher and let him work with Kevin Long.
The Mets should acquire Nick Swisher.
There are all sorts of pitching prospects. There are pitchers who were uber prospects like Matt Harvey. The question with these prospects is where they’ll slot in the rotation. Then there are prospects like Jeremy Hefner.
The prospects like Hefner aren’t no doubters. You’re not a no doubter when you’re a 5th round draft pick who was twice placed on waivers before pitching one big league inning. Hefner referred to himself as “an average prospect.” Average prospects need to make the best of not only their stuff, but also their chances. Somehow, it’s more satisfying when these guys make it. You want the Hefners of the world to succeed because you want to believe in a player that really is doing everything he can do. It’s what you tell yourself you would do if you had enough talent to get that chance.
Well, Hefner made the most of his chances. He showed the Mets enough in 2012 for him to be in the 2013 rotation (even though he might’ve been a placeholder for Zack Wheeler). As the calendar turned to June, he seemed to figure something out. He went on a stretch of eight straight starts allowing two earned or less. Now what happened next is up for debate. Initially, it was thought he regressed to the mean. The truth may just be he was injured. In August 2013, Hefner had Tommy John surgery.
It’s a crushing blow to a player who just arrived on the scene. It was also crushing to him, but also to the Mets. They lost not only Hefner, but also Harvey to a torn UCL. The two rehabbed together. Seeing Hefner’s promise, the Mets kept him around rather than release him. Then something horrible happened. Hefner was not progressing in his rehab. He needed a second surgery. It definitively ended his Mets career. It put his baseball career into question.
Anytime a player like Hefner suffers a setback like this it’s deflating. Part of what makes sports fun is the out of nowhere stories. Everyone knows Tom Brady’s and Mike Piazza‘s stories. They’re reminders that what you need to succeed in sports, and in life, is hard work and determination. Hefner had those qualities. His mind was willing, but his flesh seemed weak.
Fortunately, that’s not the end of the story. Hefner again worked his tail off. We shouldn’t expect anything else. He started pitching in the Winter Leagues. He pitched well enough to sign a minor league deal with the Cardinals. Normally, I hate the Cardinals and their players. However, I’m making an exception here. The world is a lot better when the Hefners of the world are given a chance to succeed. It’s even better when they do.
I thought the Mets should’ve brought him back. I thought he could’ve filled a need as a spot starter or a bullpen arm. Instead, Hefner is a Cardinal, and I couldn’t be happier for him. I’ll be rooting for him.
Good luck next year Jeremy Hefner.
It seems like long ago the Mets decided they didn’t want the expensive top end talent for 2016. They are actively seeking a deeper 25 man roster over a more talented starting nine. To that end, the Mets have interest in Steve Pearce.
Pearce is a career .246/.325/.431 right handed hitter. He has a career OPS+ of 105. He had a great 2014 hitting .293/.373/.556 with 21 homers, 49 RBI, and an OPS+ of 157 in 102 games. Last year, he had a steep drop off. He hit .218/.289/.422 with 15 homers, 40 RBI, and a 91 OPS+ in 92 games. Overall, this tells us he’s a bench player. You really never know what you’re going to get year to year. He has the potential to be really good and really bad. The question is if he can help the Mets.
The 2014 version can. The 2015 version was no better than Eric Campbell. On average, he’s a useful player. He’s an adequate 1B/OF. To that end, he could replace Michael Cuddyer‘s expected production, even if he won’t replace his clubhouse presence. If the Mets do obtain Pearce, it should be as an occasional started against tough lefties instead of being your prototypical National League bench player.
For his career, Pearce hits .238/.314/.400 against righties and .262/.343/.481 against lefties. With platoon splits like these, he is a good candidate to take at bats against tough lefties in place of Curtis Granderson or Michael Conforto. Just don’t ask him to pinch hit. As a pinch hitter, Pearce hits .170/.255/.284. Yes, 98 plate appearances is a small sample size, but those numbers are just bad no matter how you slice and dice it. Signing him fills out the roster almost completely. It also makes Wilmer Flores that top right handed pinch hitter. That’ll be hard with the Mets having him play everywhere next season.
Overall, Pearce could help the Mets. He may not be an exciting move, but then again depth moves rarely are. To that end, signing him would be the perfect end to the offseason.
There are always players we like more than others. Putting aside Obviously Mets, I liked Kirk Nieuwenhuis more than your average fan.
Every year, my brother and I have the same argument. I think of Nieuwenhuis as a useful player. He’s a solid defender at three outfield positions. He is a platoon player/fourth outfielder. His problem has always been the fact that he’s overexposed by a poor Mets team needing to play him more frequently than he should.
Most Mets fans were like my brother. They saw a guy with admittedly underwhelming statistics. At times, Kirk was one of the symbols of what was wrong with the Mets. This season the Mets were so bad offensively that they had to bring back Kirk after he was released by the Angels. The Angels had originally obtained him after the Mets designated him for assignment.
When he returned, he would become the first Met to hit three home runs in a home game:
He helped send the Mets into the All Star Break with a sweep of the Diamondbacks. He helped the Mets stay within two games of the Nationals. This allowed the Mets to make some deadline moves to help overtake the Nationals. He then put the final nail in the 2015 Nationals coffin:
Kirk went from cast away to afterthought to a contributor. He would make the post season roster. Unfortunately, he won’t be on the roster next year to help the Mets defend their National League title. A title he helped the Mets obtain.
No, Kirk is now a Brewer. He was put on waivers to make room for Alejandro De Aza. I’d prefer the Mets to waive someone else. I’d like Kirk to remain with the Mets. This time though the Mets will lose a homegrown player to the Nationals. There’s no hip issues stopping this move. None. Unlike Wilmer Flores, Kirk is now an ex-Met.
Kirk will never be forgotten. He’s the answer to a trivia question. I’ll remember him more for that pinch hit homerun. I’ll remember him more for how hard he played. I’ll always appreciate him for what he did with the Mets.
Thank you Kirk.
In some ways it’s ironic that Festivus is the first full day in which the Mets fans lost all hope for the continuation of Cespedes. It all started with this:
Oh my god. @Mets
I can't believe I can actually say this, but is it true that there is now
"A Cespedis for the rest of us"?#mets#T7L— Jerry Seinfeld (@JerrySeinfeld) July 31, 2015
Now, it unofficially ends with the Mets signing Alejandro De Aza. Personally, I thought the Mets didn’t have room anymore for Yoenis Cespedes. I didn’t like the trade that brought him here. But boy oh boy did I enjoy the ride.
We can all debate whether Cespedes was the reason the Mets won the NL East. Undoubtedly, he was a huge help to the cause. Furthermore, he added fun and excitement to a season which was frustrating and at times hard to watch. Seemingly overnight the Mets went from a team barely scoring any runs to a high powered offense. That offense was powered by La Potencia.
If nothing else, Cespedes made the Mets fun to watch with plays like these:
Also, let’s not forget the arm sleeve and the parakeet:
Whatever you want to say about Cespedes, you have to admit he brought energy to the team and the fanbase. He was fun to watch. He was the type of player you had to stop to watch. At any moment, he could unleash a laser from the outfield to nail a runner, or he could hit one out of the park in the blink of an eye.
When Cespedes was at his best, there were none like him. He made the game fun. He made the game exciting. I’m sincerely going to miss that. I appreciate all he did in his short time in Queens. He deserves the standing ovations when he returns. He will deserve the invitations back to Citi Field when the Mets celebrate big events. While Cespedes was only a Met for three months, he left his mark here. I wish him the best of luck.
Thank you for your time here Cespedes.
After the Mets signed Alejandro De Aza, the Mets fans realized the team was breaking its promises, and they became angry. They came to the realization that the team was not going to increase payroll, at least not significantly, after attendance increased.
Right now, I could remind everyone of the Mets great starting pitching in an attempt to calm everyone down. However, I don’t think it’s that time. Honestly, the fans need to be angry with the team lying to them. The team needs to answer questions why ticket prices increased while the payroll was decreased. The only way I truly know how to make that happen is to tell everyone the Mets punted on Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespedes is projected to receive a contract around $21.5 million per year. Jason Heyward signed a deal worth approximately $23 million a year. If you assume Heyward was the top free agent, the $21.5 million is a good approximation.
We know Michael Cuddyer. We don’t know if he received a buyout. He was due to make $12.5 million. De Aza just signed for $5.75 million, and he can earn up to $1.25 million in incentives. That’s potentially $7 million. Collectively, that’s potentially $19.5 million.
That’s right. The De Aza signing really did cost the Mets Cespedes. The money saved in the series of transactions starting with the Neil Walker trade and Cuddyer retirement wasn’t used to get the power bat the Mets need.
Yes, I don’t think the Mets should re-sign him. However, I do think they should’ve used the money to improve the roster. They haven’t done that. For me, I thought the Mets should’ve created a lockdown bullpen while bringing back Daniel Murphy. For others, it’s Cespedes.
For the Mets, it was pocketing the money while bringing on De Aza.
Personally, I don’t have a problem with Alejandro De Aza as the Mets fourth outfielder and/or a platoon option for Juan Lagares. I didn’t trust Denard Span‘s ability to return to form. I never thought Gerardo Parra would come to the Mets to accept a reduced role. In a vacuum, I thought the move made sense.
Apparently, I was the only one, and you know what? I completely understand. For many Mets fans the De Aza signing was a signal that the Mets weren’t spending money. It meant the Mets weren’t going to bring in Span, who was a popular free agent target amongst fans. It meant the Mets weren’t going to bring back fan favorite Yoenis Cespedes. It meant the Mets were going to pocket all that playoff money.
It showed the Mets were not going to keep their promise that payroll would increase if attendance increased. Well attendance and revenues increased, so what happened:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/679393422684381184
#Mets payroll alert: $107m. I'll leave now.
— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) December 22, 2015
This means the Mets payroll is at or near the 2015 Opening Day payroll. That’s less than the Mets payroll at the end of the 2015 season. In essence, attendance increased and PAYROLL DECREASED!
It’s unacceptable, especially when you consider the Mets needed to improve a team that lost the World Series. They’re now worse than that team. It’s not right, and frankly it’s unfair to the fans.
One thing that’s funny is I had some on ask me why I wasn’t more upset about the De Aza signing. It’s simple. The Mets already signaled they weren’t going to spend this offseason with the Neil Walker trade. It was a cheap move that saved a couple of million.
Yes, Walker’s and Jon Niese‘s 2016 salaries are effectively a wash. However, the Mets needed to add Bartolo Colon to take Niese’s spot in the rotation for $7.25 million. The Mets might’ve been able to sign Daniel Murphy for an average annual value of $12 million. That’s a $4.75 million difference. By saving that money, the Mets lost a trade chip in Niese, which is important since the Mets have lost a lot of pitching over the past year. They also let everyone know they’re saving money. It’s just now confirmed the cost savings were for the Wilpons and not for a big payroll acquisition.
Overall, the Walker trade signaled this was coming. I was angry when that trade happened. I’m not going to get angry again over the same issue. I’m not going to get angry over a signing that makes some sense. Don’t get me wrong. Like you, I’m angry.
It’s just that I’ve been angry much longer than you have.
Apparently, the Mets are in no rush to acquire a centerfielder who can hit right-handed pitching:
The #Mets have Denard Span, Will Venable and Alejandro De Aza on their radar as left-handed CF options. They're slow-playing it.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 21, 2015
The name there that is new is Alejandro De Aza. He will turn 32 next year, and he’s a left-handed outfielder. In his career, he has hit .274/.338/.418 against righties. He hit .278/.351/.448 against them last year while playing 90 games for three different teams. So he fits as a platoon partner for Juan Lagares offensively. The question is how does he fit defensively?
He’s not bad actually. Not great, but not bad. For some reason, he only played CF eight innings last year, but his career UZR there is 1.8, meaning he can handle the position. Typically, he averages a 0.2 per season.
Does he have the potential upside of a Denard Span? No, but he also doesn’t have the same downside. Span has just had labrum surgery on his hip on top of two other surgeries. Span has been as defensively two years running. While he and De Aza are the same age, Span has a lot more tread on those tires.
De Aza is also a definitive upgrade over Kirk Nieuwenhuis. While they are similar defensively, De Aza hits righties much better. Nieuwenhuis hit righties .210/.277/.403 last year and .245/.314/.423 for his career.
Overall, De Aza is the perfect fit for the Mets. He hits righties. He can play a respectable centerfield. He’s also going to be cheap. De Aza made $5 million last year. There’s no reason to expect he’ll make much more than that. It’s also possible he signs for less. With the Mets current financial situation, De Aza should be the direction they go.
You know what you’re getting from him. He’s going to provide exactly what you need. If Lagares rebounds, you can justify sitting De Aza for him. Also, did I mention he’s going to come cheap? If you’re getting Span on a one-year heavy incentive laden deal, I understand going that direction. However, his agent may have something to say about that.
With all that said, I’ll take De Aza.
Commissioner Rob Manfred recently spoke out against player opt out clauses. The issue, if you want to call it an issue, came about, in part, due to the Jason Heyward and David Price signings. Here’s the Commisioner’s take:
The logic of opt-out clauses escapes me. You make an eight year agreement with a player. He plays well, and he opts out after three. You either pay the player again or you lose him. Conversely, if the player performs poorly, he doesn’t opt out and gets the benefit of the eight year agreement. That doesn’t strike me as a very good deal. Personally, I don’t see the logic of it. But clubs do what they do.
Keep in mind, the Commissioner could’ve said the same thing about teams carrying player options, but he didn’t say that. No, he essentially said these opt out agreements are bad for teams. I couldn’t disagree more.
First, let’s keep in mind who is getting opt out clauses in their contracts. In this offseason, it was a former Cy Young Award winner in Price and a young three time Gold Glove winner in Hayward. They were the two top free agents. Accordingly, they had the leverage to get the clauses inserted in their contracts. Without those clauses, it’s reasonable to assume those players go elsewhere.
With that in mind, let’s also keep in mind the opt out clause is a way to get a player you might not have otherwise obtained. The Marlins have one to Giancarlo Stanton as an attempt to keep a budding superstar around longer than they usually could. The Yankees used the provision to lure CC Sabathia to the Bronx. It was reported Sabathia didn’t want to come to New York, but rather, he wanted to return home to California. The opt out clause allowed the Yankees to offer an out in case Sabathia hated New York. Without the clause, it’s very possible the Yankees didn’t get him.
Speaking of Sabathia, the opt out clause protects the team from having to pay a player on the downside of his career. Sabathia had an opt out after his third year. To that point, the Yankess paid Sabathia $48.5 million over the course of three years. Sabathia was good for them goimg 50-23 a 3.17 ERA. In two of the three years, he was an All Star. The Yankees won the World Series. In all three years, he was top four in the Cy Young voting. He was also turning 32.
Sabathia never really officially opted out. Instead, he renegotiated his deal. The five year contact became an eight year contract. In the first four years, Sabathia has earned $92 million. For that $92 million, he has been 38-33 with a 4.35 ERA. He’s had one All Star appearance and no Cy Young votes. It’s been a disaster, especially when you consider the extenuating circumstances.
If the Yankees walked away when they should’ve, Sabathia gets a huge deal elsewhere. Sabathia’s down years happen elsewhere while the Yankees have free up cash to get whatever else they needed. Instead, they signed Sabathia to another deal, and Sabathia is taking up a roster spot for more money than he’s now worth.
Overall, if you want a top player, you don’t want to pay him during his decline, and you can show restraint not to re-sign an older player, the opt out clause is the way to go. Therein is the logic in the deal.
Going into the 2015 season, the Mets told everyone they were comfortable with Wilmer Flores as their shortstop. Going into this offseason, the Mets reminded everyone they made the World Series with Flores as their shortstop. As it turns out the Mets don’t regard Flores as anything more than a bench player.
With Daniel Murphy being a free agent, the Mets had the option to do the following with Flores: (1) leave him at shortstop or (2) move him to secondbase. The secondbase option became more viable when Ben Zobrist became a Cub. Instead the Mets traded for Neil Walker. After that, they signed Asdrubal Cabrera. In about a 34 hour timespan Flores went from starting middle infielder to a bench player.
Simply put, the Mets gave up on him. They gave up on a 25 year old baseball player they seemed to really like. They gave up on the idea that a hard worker like Flores would improve. Make no mistake, this has more to do with Flores’ bat than it has to do with his glove. It’s surprising because it was Flores’ bat that earned him the opportunity to play in the big leagues.
Simply put, while Flores showed some power, he was not very good at the plate. Last year, he hit .263/.295/.408. Walker hit .269/.328/.427. Cabrera hit .265/.315/.430. As an aside, Murphy hit .281/.322./.449. Seems important to mention since the Mets were making offensive and not defensive upgrades.
Last year, Flores had a UZR of 2.0 at secondbase and -2.5 at shortstop. Walker is coming off consecutive -6.8 UZR seasons at second. Here are Cabrera‘s UZRs at short since 2009: -5.0, -5.5, -11.0, -7.7, -12.8, -6.6, -6.0. Look at those numbers again. I know it’s hard for Mets fans to accept, but Flores is a better defender than Walker and Cabrera.
The reason it’s so hard is the early season troubles Flores had. He had trouble turning the double play. He had trouble making a play off his backhand. Here’s the thing. Remember the NLCS and World Series? Did either of those issues arise once? No. He was very solid at short, even if it was a limited sample size.
Ultimately, the Mets made these moves because of Flores’ offense, not his defense. They made these moves because they lost faith that Flores could ever improve enough to be an everyday player. Yes, they gave up on him being an everyday player. When you move a 25 year old to the bench, you’ve given up on him. You’ve given up on him when you bring in two weaker defenders in their 30s.
The Mets made these moves to improve their offense. It’s up for debate m as to whether it was the right move. What is not up for debate is the Mets giving up on Flores. It’s pretty clear that they did.