Hot Stove
Last summer, the Mets understandably almost traded Zack Wheeler. They thought they were getting Carlos Gomez, an All Star Gold Glove CF with another year of control. They were trying to make a playoff run by trading an injured pitcher. Ironically, the deal fell apart due to Gomez’s, not Wheeler’s, medical records.
Once the trade was undone, it seemed like the Mets were primed to create an even deeper super rotation. The only thing that stands in that way is the amount of holes this Mets team has coupled with the financial constraints. The Mets have roughly $18 million in the budget to get a second baseman and a shortstop. Depending on your point of view, the Mets also need a centerfielder and a reliever. Good luck filling all of those needs with that little money.
If you want to do it, you’re going to have to make a trade or two. With the Mets unloading their best trade chips, they’re going to have to trade from their major league talent pool to improve their roster. Everyone wants the Mets young pitching. Perhaps the best way to do that would be to trade Wheeler. He’s still highly regarded, but he also wasn’t there for the run to the World Series. Only the Mets say they’re not shopping him.
That’s what they say. In actuality, they are shopping Wheeler around to teams. Here was Assistant GM John Ricco’s quote about the prospect of trading Wheeler:
We’re not actively shopping Zack by any stretch. But as with the other starters, if something came up that we thought would make us better, we’re going to talk about it.
***
If there’s a deal that we think really makes us better, I can’t say we would [trade Wheeler again].
Here’s the thing about these quotes: there have been no Wheeler trade rumors. None! This is a salvo from the Mets to let people know they Wheeler is there for the taking . . . again.
It’s a smart move. He’s probably at his peak value. People remember his terrific stuff. They just saw the Mets young pitching go to the World Series. Wheeler was good enough to fetch an All Star CF with a reasonable contract last year, and that was when Wheeler was at least a year away.
Wheeler hasn’t had a set back during his rehab. He hasn’t come back and faltered. Neither of these may happen, but they are certainly possibilities. It’s also important to remember that Wheeler has a wealth of talent, but he has only been an average pitcher.
With that said, it’s a good time to shop Wheeler to see if you can get even more than the All Star CF they were set to obtain. This was the first time Wheeler’s name has been mentioned by anyone as a trade candidate. You’ll probably start to hear it a lot more. The Mets put his name out there to field offers.
They should start coming in. That’s what happens when you shop a player around. That’s what the Mets started doing by saying they’d consider trading him.
You know who used to be awesome? Tim Lincecum. In 2008 and 2009, he won back-to-back Cy Young Awards. In 2010, he helped pitch the Giants to their first Workd Series title since they moved to San Francisco.
After 2010, things have not gone well for Lincecum. His ERAs have been over 4.00, he’s had injuries, and he hasn’t been able to stay in the rotation. He was in the bullpen for the 2012 title run. He had only one relief appearance in the entire 2014 postseason. Last year, his year ended early because he needed hip surgery. He’s now a free agent.
There’s a number of red flags. I look at that, and I see discount signs. It’s where you need to go if you truly have limited resources to improve in the offseason. You need to take what will hopefully be low cost, high reward signings. Ultimately, what the Mets would be looking for is the 2012 postseason version of Big Time Timmy Jim.
Somewhat surprisingly, Lincecum was in the bullpen making six appearances (one NLCS start). He had a 2.55 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, and a 10.2 K/9. He showed a glimpse of having the ability to be great in the bullpen. What he hasn’t shown is the ability to be durable or good enough to make 32 starts per year.
Long lost in baseball is the true long man. The player who could make a few appearances one week and make a start the next week. It’s something the Mets needed last year, and if they’re honest, they will want one next year with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard throwing more innings last year than they’ve thrown before in their careers.
With all the troubles he’s had recently, it might be good to convince Lincecum he needs a new start. Convince him he could use a one year contract to re-establish his value so he may become the next Dennis Eckersley or John Smoltz. With two Cy Youngs and three World Series rings, you’re selling him on his Hall of Fame chances. His best chance would be moving to the bullpen.
There’s one spot left in the bullpen. Why not offer it to Lincecum? It may seem Freaky, but it may be equally beneficial to all involved.
After we found out Daniel Murphy rejected the qualifying offer, there were many people saying good bye to Murphy. Others celebrated his departure. These were all premeditated even if Murphy’s return is unlikely:
For those wondering, was told contract extension talks with Murphy never became serious. Again, all signs point to him going elsewhere.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) November 14, 2015
Yes, it’s likely Murphy leaves, but it’s not definitive. Murphy could still sign with the Mets. This is one of many misconceptions out there:
Mets Are Better Without Murphy
I really don’t understand this one. I’m well aware of his faults. He’s not a good baserunner. He’s not good defensively at second. He doesn’t walk a lot, and he doesn’t have a lot of power.
Well he is a second baseman, and he is one of the top hitters at that position. He hit .281/.322/.449 last year. Amongst second basemen:
- Batting average ranked ninth in the majors and fourth in the NL.
- OBP ranked twelfth in the majors and fifth in the NL. He was
- Slugging ranked fourth in the majors and first in the NL.
He had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. He’s making more and better contact. He’s clutch. Very clutch! Losing Murphy would be a big blow to the 2016 Mets, and that’s before you take into account if Dilson Herrera is ready or if David Wright can play everyday over 162 games.
The Money Can Be Better Allocated
This one is just wrong. With Murphy presumably gone, the Mets at least have issues to address in the middle infield. Some believe the Mets need another CF. Others want to get some more relievers. There’s also a group that wants to get an insurance option for Wright at third.
That’s a lot to add, especially for a team that only has about $18 million in their budget to resolve all of these problems. If you re-sign Murphy, you have at least address second base and the Wright insurance plan. With Murphy pegged to receive around $12 million annually, there is sufficient funds to add another reliever and/or a backup CF.
The only other free agent who can check these boxes is Ben Zobrist, who is a mistake signing waiting to happen. He’s 35 and in the midst of a three year decline. Last year, he was actually WORSE than Murphy defensively. I can’t believe the Mets will walk down this path again after signing a 35 year old Michael Cuddyer last year.
The Mets Have Better Internal Options
This is just ponderous. If you go the Wilmer Flores route, you’ve eliminated the Mets best possible shortstop option. Also, if you’re beating up Murphy for low OBP and the like, here’s Flores’ stats from last year: .263/.295/.408. He’s right handed and not even in the same league as Murphy as a hitter.
The other option is Dilson Herrera, who I think has a promising future. However, he’s still only 21. In limited major league duty over the past two years, he’s hit .215/.308/.383. Are we really confident he’s going to be handle the job next year? He will eventually, but this is a team that was just in the World Series. You should go with players who you know you can trust, not ones you hope can.
He’s a Net Negative
This is actually an oldie, but it is a good place for summation. Overall, for all of Murphy’s faults, he’s been a good guy that has performed well in New York. He was bounced all over the place, and he never complained. That’s important to have on any team, especially when it comes from a veteran.
More importantly, we should look at how he responded to the comment. He went on a homerun tear in the playoffs like we’ve never seen. Most people wilt under the bright lights of New York. He rose to the occasion.
Can you win a World Series with Murphy being the best player on your team? Probably not. However, as he showed this postseason, you’re probably not getting to the World Series without at least one Murphy in your team. Whoever signs Murphy is going to get a very good baseball player. A player who is versatile, hits well, and does not complain.
Until such a time as Murphy signs with another team, I’m not writing an obituary on his Mets career. I’m not saying good-bye yet. Instead, I’m holding out hope the Mets can push the misconceptions aside and re-sign Murphy.
The Mets are reported to have interest in Ben Zobrist along with the rest of baseball. Let’s get one thing out of the way. Ben Zobrist is a better player than Daniel Murphy.
Zobrist hit .276/.359/.450 last year. For his career, he’s a .265/.355/.431 hitter. He wasn’t good at second last year. His UZR was a -6.7. However, last year was a blip. He’s averaged a 3.3 UZR, which would make him slightly above average at the position. Last year, his WAR was 1.9. His career WAR is 38.5.
For his part, Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 last year, and he’s hit .288/.331/.424 for his career. His UZR at second last year was -1.3, his best ever at second (for a full season). His average UZR is -4, which means he’s a bad fielder. Last year, his WAR was 1.4, and his career WAR is 12.5.
By any measure, Zobrist is a better player than Murphy. Zobrist has more versatility than Murphy as he can play some short and can play the OF. So why would I rather pay Murphy $48 million over four years than pay Zobrist $42 million over three years? Murphy is five years younger and in the prime of his career.The Murphy/Zobrist decision is an examination of paying players for past over future performance.
Zobrist is old and in decline. Here’s his WAR over the last five years:
- 2011 – 8.7
- 2012 – 5.7
- 2013 – 5.0
- 2014 – 4.9
- 2015 – 1.9
Here’s his UZR at second base the last five years:
- 2011 – 6.6
- 2012 – (3.1)
- 2013 – 10.0
- 2014 – 4.7
- 2015 – (6.7)
If you want to tell me Zobrist will be better than Murphy next year, I can’t argue. But what about 2017? What about 2018? With all the teams interested, he could get a four year contract. Do you think a 40 year old Zobrist will be better than a 35 year old Murphy?
Just remember the Mets signed a 35 year old Michael Cuddyer last year, and now they have a $12.5 million bench player. This is the danger you face when you sign Zobrist.
Murphy is the safer bet going forward.
Today is the deadline for Daniel Murphy to accept or reject the $15.8 million qualifying offer. While I anticipate he will reject it, the possibility remains that he could accept it:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/665195238332452864
Sooner or later, the Mets will have to give the second base job to Dilson Herrera. He’s got the potential to be an All Star one day. He hit .327/.387/.511 in AAA this year. He might not have been ready when he was called up this year, but he’s only 21 years old. He may need another year to be ready. Another year of Murphy helps that.
This will be David Wright‘s first full season after his spinal stenosis diagnosis. We will find out how much he can play. If he’s limited in how much he can play, Murphy has shown he’s more than capable of playing at third for a stretch. It’s possible the Mets could let Wright go on the DL to rest permitting Murphy to play third and get Herrera comes time at second to see if he’s ready. Having Murphy around another year is a nice insurance policy.
It would also give Murphy more time to work with Kevin Long. I’m not expecting Murphy to repeat Murphtober, but it should be noted he had the most homeruns he’s ever had. He did this while hitting 38 doubles, the second highest he’s ever had. It was the highest slugging percentage he’s ever had over a full year. Another year with the Mets should let us know if it was a career year or something else.
I can understand not wanting Murphy on a multi-year deal. He’s still not good defensively at second. You might be paying him for postseason performance rather than what he has been his whole career. However, on a one year deal? It makes too much sense.
I’m not worried about it “ruining” the Mets offseason plans. The bullpen is in good shape. The rotation should be better with a full year of Steven Matz, no Bartolo Colon, and Zack Wheeler scheduled to return. The shortstop options out there aren’t better than Wilmer Flores. The CF market is full of players who shouldn’t play in center. Therefore, Juan Lagares is probably their best option. So with that said, how does Murphy “ruin” their offseason?
It doesn’t. Murphy taking the qualifying offer is the Mets best case scenario. As Sandy Alderson stated himself, you only make the offer if you want the player back. Well, the offer was made. Hopefully, Murphy comes back for 2016.
Through everything that has happened with Ruben Tejada this postseason, one thing gets lost in the shuffle. He’s not a good SS and he’s starting to get expensive. With these things in mind, he’s not a lock to return in 2016:
Also, it doesn't sound as if Ruben Tejada is a slam dunk to be tendered a contract. Could be Matt Reynolds for that spot, competing for SS.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) November 12, 2015
Tejada is expected to receive $2.5 million in arbitration. He cannot be a free agent until 2018. He may have poor range (-5.6 UZR), but he catches everything hit to him. He’s a career .255/.340/.323 hitter. Long story, short. He’s a major leaguer. Maybe not a great one, but a major leaguer nevertheless.
It also means he’s as asset. Yes, this is the second time he’s broken his right leg. I know he’s not what everyone imagined he would be when the other shortstop left in free agency. However, he’s a competent player who is not making that much money. Last time the Mets made a penny wise, pound foolish decision like this was Justin Turner, and we know how that worked out.
Tejada is about to turn 27, so you can argue he’s about to be entering the prime of his career. The Mets seem to be letting Daniel Murphy walk and installing Dilson Herrera at second. If Herrera isn’t ready, Wilmer Flores (the lesser of all evils at SS) would be the most likely candidate to play second. Except he can’t in that situation because the Mets non-tendered Tejada. Also, what happens if Flores repeats his early season SS struggles?
I’m sure the Mets will look to get someone to replace Tejada, but it’s slim pickings. Do you really want to see Jimmy Rollins or Alexei Ramirez there everyday? It’s one thing to bring them in and give them a chance, it’s another to have to rely upon them. This more than anything is the reason why Tejada is so important.
The Mets need to keep Tejada.
Well now that the Andrelton Simmons drama is over, you would think the idea of a Mets-Braves trade would go away. At least you would think it would go away after the Braves overreach in their asking price. It turns out the asking price was even worse than we all thought:
#Braves officials told #Mets it would take a young arm plus Conforto to do a deal. NYM never got back to Atl — as you would expect.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 13, 2015
You would think that this would put an end to any idea that the Mets and Braves would enter into a trade for a everyday player. Nope because the Braves received Erick Aybar as part of the trade. Naturally, everyone sees the name and goes there’s a fit:
Now #Mets and #Braves are set up nicely for an Aybar for prospects type trade.
— Jim Bowden⚾️ (@JimBowdenGM) November 13, 2015
It’s at this point it should be noted Jim Bowden was a terrible GM in more ways than one. There’s a reason why he hasn’t had a front office job since 2009. If you didn’t have any reason to call his judgment into question, look no further than his idea that the Mets obtain Aybar.
Aybar is coming off a year where he hit .270/.301/.338. For his career, he is hitting .270/.316/.378. He will be 32 years old on Opening Day. He’s in the last year of his deal, and he’s owed $8.5 million. That’s a lot of money for a guy that’s not a good hitter. However, the Mets have a need for a defensive SS, so maybe you bite the bullet here. Aybar has won a Gold Glove.
Except, it was just the one, and it was five years ago. Now, he’s got horrible range. His UZR this past season was -7.1. If you want to argue that UZR can change from year to year, and he was much better in 2014, I agree. However, he was also a -6.6 in 2013. Essentially, in two of the last three years, his range is close to fall down left – fall down right.
Let’s put it another way, we all agree Wilmer Flores was good defensively last year. Well, at a -2.5 UZR, he had much better range than Aybar. As we saw after Ruben Tejada went down in the postseason, Flores was much better at SS. Gone were the wild throws and awkwardness in turning the double play.
Now, what is more likely? Is it more likely that Aybar suddenly rediscovers his range from five years ago at the age of 32, or is it more likely that the 24 year old Flores is improving at SS? Would you want to pay Aybar $8.5 million against Flores’ $500-600 k salary to find out? Is Aybar really worth $8 million more plus prospects? Isn’t Flores the better bet, especially with his 16 homeruns last year?
Look, if you’re not comfortable with Flores, I get it. However, that does not mean you make a bad trade for a bad player who plays a bad SS. The fact of the matter is there are no good shortstop options. You can stick with Flores and/or wait to get a veteran insurance policy on the cheap. You could also trade for a SS.
The trade route is fine as long as you’re not trading for Aybar because he’s no longer a good SS. I’d rather stick with Flores.
The recent Andrelton Simmons trade rumors suggests again the Mets know there is a hole at shortstop.
Last year, Wilmer Flores showed he wasn’t an everyday shortstop. On top of that with Daniel Murphy likely departing, he may be needed at second if Dilson Herrera isn’t ready. On top of that, Ruben Tejada once again exhibited limited range for the position, and that is before taking into account his broken leg. You’d like to say Matt Reynolds is an option, but he regressed at the plate last year in a hitter’s league and park. Furthermore, he, like Flores, is someone who may not profile as a major league shortstop.
The Mets have two well regarded shortstop prospects with Gavin Cecchini and Ahmed Rosario. Both played in AA for the first time last year. While Michael Conforto made the jump from AA to the majors, it would be unfair to presume these two could. Conforto did something rare. Accordingly, it’s safe to assume Cecchini and Rosario are at least two to three years away from playing with the big league club.
The free agent market is thin at shortstop with the best option being a high priced player in decline for the past two years. Furthermore, the Mets unloaded their best trade pieces on rentals to go all-in last year. This begs the question, what do you do?
Well, there’s only one thing to do. You let the free agent market shake out. You look to take on one of the remaining shortstops on either a minor league deal or a cheap major league deal. I’m sure a player like Jimmy Rollins is looking for one last chance to win a World Series. Alexei Ramirez may want a one year deal to re-establish his value.
No, I’m not excited about these players either. However, it’s the reality of the Mets situation. Much like they wanted to catch lightning in a bottle with Flores last year, they’re looking to do it again next year with Flores or whoever else it may be.
It’s difficult knowing the Mets real shortstops are two plus years away, but the team is ready to win now.
Last night, Jonah Keri broke the rumor that the Braves were discussing trading Andrelton Simmons to an NL West team. With him rumored to be on the block, and the Mets current SS situation, everyone wondered if the Mets would join the bidding.
Well, the Mets can join the bidding all they want. There’s no deal to be had for Simmons. To their credit, the Mets tried to trade for Simmons last season before the trade deadline. While the names of the players were not disclosed, the Mets labeled Simmons as “basically unreachable.” Well today, we found out why the Mets characterized Simmons as unreachable:
Braves seek to have one of mets big 4 starters included in a simmons deal. They have asked about matz in past. #simmons
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 12, 2015
There’s no way the Mets will trade one of their starting pitchers for Simmons. If the Mets do trade one of them, the names you’ll hear is Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, or Andrew MCutchen. Does anyone think those teams will be trading those players? That’s exactly why the Mets won’t trade their starting pitchers.
Now, I could create a realistic trade without the Mets starters, but that would involve the Mets taking on Michael Bourn‘s $14 million salary. Do you really see that happening? Neither do I. I could analyze whether it’s a good idea or not to take on Simmons, but it’s a moot point. Further, the addition of more interested teams will not lessen the Braves demands.
The Mets are not getting Andrelton Simmons.
One of the Mets biggest mistakes last year might have been passing on the opportunity to obtain Jung Ho Kang. The Rookie of the Year candidate hit .287/.355/.461 in 126 games at SS. His WAR was 4.0. His UZR was 1.6 making him an average SS with a good bat. Basically, he was what the Mets hoped Wilmer Flores would be.
The Mets may now have the opportunity to add a Korean player, who could help them in the bullpen. Seung-hwan Oh is coming to the United States next week in search of an offer to pitch in the majors next year. Unlike Kang, Oh is a free agent so the team interested in him does not have to pay a posting fee to obtain his rights. Even with success in the Korean and Japanese leagues, the 33 year old closer is an unknown commodity. An unknown commodity who has recorded a 1.81 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 11 professional seasons.
We don’t know how those stats translate to the majors. What we do know is his stuff. He has what he calls a “Stone Fastball” which has a velocity between 92-94 MPH. He can add a little to it to get it up to 97 MPH. He also has a slider that he deviates the speeds between 80-89 MPH. He also has a curveball he throws in the 70s.
He has the type of arsenal that should work well in the majors. Overall, he’s an unknown commodity who carries the burden of having had Tommy John surgery in 2001 and a second elbow surgery in 2010. His last contract earned him $4.15 million per season in Japan. If he asked for a similar contract, he would cost about half of what the elite set-up options cost in this market.
For what it’s worth, here’s some video of him pitching in Japan:
He certainly looks like he has the stuff to pitch in the majors. He’s a risk, but he’s got swagger. As stated above, he calls his fastball the “Stone Fastball.” He goes by the nickname “The Final Boss.” He at least sounds like the type of player and personality that could succeed in New York.
This Mets bullpen may just need one final boss. Oh is worth the risk.