Hot Stove
Unsurprisingly, the Mets have interest in both Darren O’Day and Joakim Soria. If you’re looking for an elite setup guy, you’re going to be interested in both players.
Soria is now three years removed from Tommy John surgery. In the four seasons prior to the one he was injured, Soria was an elite closer recording 132 saves with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.988 WHIP. He got injured, and he became a different player. Still a good closer/reliever, but not an elite closer.
After coming back from surgery, he went to Texas where he recorded 17 saves with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP in two years. He then signed with the Tigers, who seem desperate for relief help every year (sound familiar?). In two years, he recorded 24 saves with a 3.29 ERA and s 1.115 WHIP. When he was traded to the Pirates, he was terrific in the bullpen because he’s a good pitcher and everyone is terrific in the Pirates bullpen. In 29 games he had a 2.03 ERA with a 1.163 WHIP.
With the Mets seeking an eighth inning reliever, Soria would be an upgrade over Addison Reed, who has a career 4.01 ERA and a 1.261 career WHIP. Soria is a huge upgrade. Soria is expected to receive a 2 year $14 million contract or $7 million per season. Reed is slated to receive $5.7 million in arbitration. Soria would be worth the $1.3 million increase.
O’Day appears like he will command a 3 year $21 million contract or $7 million per year. While I think the $7 million per year on both O’Day and Soria are fair estimates, the increased interest may bump those numbers up to around $8 million per season.
Right now, the Mets projected payroll is around $92 million with about $18 million left in the budget. Would it be wise to blow almost all of it on relievers? I think so. The current free agent market lacks the elite second base, shortstop, or center fielders who would improve the Mets offense. The Mets don’t seem inclined to bring back Daniel Murphy.
The best solution might be to create an absolute shut down pitching staff. Going from the Mets elite starters to O’Day-Soria-Jeurys Familia will hold up any lead the Mets can muster. Also, keep in mind, the Mets will have full years from David Wright, Michael Conforto, and Travis d’Arnaud, which should offset the losses of Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes.
The Mets best approach to this offseason might be to create a shutdown bullpen to match their starting pitching. Bring on both O’Day and Soria.
It didn’t start this year with the drama surrounding the Matt Harvey innings limits. Fans revile him. Why?
Maybe it’s a misunderstanding of his job. Boras has one singular job, and that job is to be a player’s agent. Typically, that means maximizing the amount of money his clients receive either in arbitration and/or free agency. It’s why he has one of the most valuable agencies in all of professional sports. It’s why he represents players like Matt Harvey.
A corollary to his job is to protect his players when he thinks they need protecting. It’s why he started the issue over Harvey’s innings. People forget at that time, Harvey had pitched 171.2 innings, and had four remaining scheduled starts. If he made those starts, and threw six innings per starts, he would’ve finished with 195.2 innings.
By stepping in, Boras and the Mets were able to create a plan which allowed Harvey to pitch in the postseason. As it turned out, Harvey still threw more innings than anyone has in the year after Tommy John surgery. Without Boras, we miss that incredible Harvey Game 5 start.
Another note for Mets fans: he’s been skewering the Mets front office much in the same way the fans have. As Mets fans were angry over the lack of spending, it was Boras who mocked them stating they were shopping in the frozen food aisle. Basically, he said what every fan was thinking. With the Mets winning the pennant, he gave credit where credit was due.
Ultimately, Boras is great at what he does. It’s the reason why he gets clients like Harvey. If you were a baseball player, you’d most likely hire him. You and I are no different than any athlete. We just want to make as much money as possible. We want someone to protect our interests. Boras does that.
He protects his clients and makes sure they get paid. He calls out owners whose payroll isn’t commensurate with their market. He doesn’t do anything to hurt the game. So why does everyone hate him? I really don’t get it.
After one uneven season and a poor throw in the World Series, Mets fans seem ready to move on from Lucas Duda. Some see it as an avenue to keep the very popular Daniel Murphy. Others just don’t seem to like him.
While I tend to think this is overplayed, I wanted to do a Player A and Player B comparison. I used the last two years because those are the years Duda has been an everyday first baseman. Player A and Player B are both first baseman. They are both the same age. Both players are left-handed hitters.
Player A
2014 – .196/.300/.404, OPS+ 96, WAR 1.8
2015 – .262/.361/.562, OPS+ 146, WAR 5.2
Player B
2014 – .253/.349/.481, OPS+ 137, WAR 3.6
2015 – .255/.352/.486, OPS+ 132, WAR 3.0
Which player would you rather have? It’s certainly debatable.
Well, Player A is Chris Davis, who is expected to receive a free agent contract in the area of 5 years $100 million or $20 million per season.
As you guessed, Player B is Lucas Duda, who cannot be a free agent until 2018. Lucas Duda is projected to receive $6.8 million in arbitration. Even if you picked Player A above, would you have paid him $13.2 million more a year? Of course not, regardless of the Mets financial situation.
I already know the following arguments:
- I’m omitting Davis’ 2013 season; and
- Davis has hit more homeruns over the last two years.
That’s fine. I am. However, Davis gets to play half his games in Camden Yards over Citi Field. Last year, Davis hit .285/.376/.650 at home and .241/.348/.482 on the road. Davis’ road numbers look awfully similar to Duda’s .255/.352/.486 from last year. This just shows that Lucas Duda is a very good baseball player. Mets fans should appreciate him. He’s got enormous value.
Move Duda to Camden Yards and maybe he’s the guy getting a $100 million contract.
By any measure, Jon Niese was a disappointment in 2015. Maybe it was having a new child. Those sleepless nights wreck havoc in everything you do. It may explain Niese being more ornery than usual. In any event, Niese should be back as the team’s fifth starter to at least start the year.
For his career, Niese is 61-61 with a 3.91 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.361 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. Righties have hit .274/.332/.444. Lefties have hit .266/.328/.400. Anyway you slice or dice it, he’s a fifth starter. That’s fine. They will need a fifth starter until June or July when Zack Wheeler should be ready to come back.
That’s when Niese can move to the bullpen, which is a role he really excelled in during the postseason. He only got touched up in Game 2 of the World Series. He shouldn’t have pitched that night. Terry Collins unnecessarily used him for a second inning after pitching two innings the previous night. Even with that game, Niese had a 1.125 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9.
It’s a small sample size for sure, but he’s proven he can excel in the bullpen. Depending on the state of the Mets bullpen, he can become a LOOGY, 7th or 8th inning guy, or the long man. The possibilities are endless. It’s an incredible weapon to have in the bullpen in August and September when playoff spots are on the line.
Last year, Niese gave a glimpse into what he could be in 2016. He showed he will do what the team needs to win. I expect he will be even better in that role in 2016.
He will be an important player next year.
I’ll be completely honest with you. I’ve never understood the Mets fans love of Bartolo Colon. As a Met, he was 29-26 with a 4.13 ERA, and a 1.232 WHIP. His signature moments were he cartoonish at bats. There was a terrific defensive play, but where was the signature pitching performance?
The performances I remember are his two extra inning World Series performances. He got the loss in Game One. He allowed a big hit to put the clinching Game 5 out of reach. I really harbor no ill will towards Colon for these games. Personally, I think he was put in a position to fail both times. Additionally, to blame him is to fail to acknowledge what he was.
Colon is nothing more than a fifth starter, a durable one at that. He took the ball every fifth day. Sometimes he was effective, other times he wasn’t. However, his time has passed as it normally does for 42 year old players. It’s time for Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler.
He wants to pitch next year. He probably wants to catch and surpass Pedro Martinez fir most wins by a Dominican born pitcher. He’s just one away from tying. If he starts, he’ll have his best chance to do it. Also, he’s a starter, not a bullpen arm. There will be a team that wants him to start. Let him go there. He no longer has a place with the Mets.
He did a good job with the Mets. He’ll deserve the applause he will receive when he returns to Citi Field, although I suspect he will get much more than that. I may not understand all the fanfare he receives, but I do understand he did his job well with the Mets.
Good luck at your next stop Colon.
With the Mets having limited money to spend, they seemingly have two options: (1) improve a strength; or (2) address a weakness. With the Mets have holes at both middle infield spots and centerfield, depending on your point of view, the Mets may be looking to improve a strength:
Sounds like Mets like O’Day too, which is obvious. But easy to see his market heating up and being out of reach.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
Without making a move, the Mets already have a good bullpen. Why improve it with all the other holes? Why address the bullpen when the Mets are losing Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes? The reason is you can’t bring back both. Therefore, no matter what happens you’re going to be playing in tight games next year. The best way to handle those games is with great pitching.
The Mets have great starting pitching, but only a good bullpen. The addition of Darren O’Day would make the bullpen great. In six of the eight years he’s pitched, he has had an ERA of 2.28 and below. For his career, righties hit .193/.261/.279. Lefties hit him better to the tune of .235/.294/.409. As you would expect, lefties hit the submarining O’Day better than righties, but they don’t exactly hit him well. Furthermore, O’Day has been improving against them while he’s been in Baltimore:
- 2014: .189/.264/.368
- 2015: .210/.293/.333
O’Day has become a terrific set-up man. Combining him with Jeurys Familia would make every game a seven inning game with the Mets. With their starting pitcher, that’s a dangerous proposition for the Mets opponents.
It may also be what the Mets need with what promises to be a diminished Mets offense.
Despite last pitching for the Mets in 2012, Johan Santana is still trying to make a comeback. God bless him.
Santana missed the entire 2011 season after shoulder surgery on his left arm to repair a torn anterior capsule. He came back in 2012, and he pitched well. Then on one magic night, This happened:
It’s a night that still haunts Terry Collins. He let a pitcher coming back from shoulder surgery throw 134 pitches. Collins was noticeably upset in his post game press conference. He feared what ended up happening. Santana’s career effectively ended that day.
Santana would have a re-tear in the capsule requiring further surgery. He would miss the entire 2013 season, his last with the Mets. He tore his Achilles’ tendon while rehabbing the shoulder surgery costing him the 2014 season. Last year, he had a toe infection which prevented his latest comeback. He now wants another chance.
The Mets can afford to give it to him. They are looking for lefties in the bullpen. All Santana will require is a minor league deal for the minimum with an invitation to Spring Training. Worst case scenario is he doesn’t have it, and you cut him. No harm, no foul. But if there is something, anything there, you could have a good reliever. A reliever who can handle New York, and who can be a mentor to the entire pitching staff.
The other reason to give it to him is the Mets owe him. It sounds funny because the Mets paid him $137.5 million. However, they pushed him to the limit in 2008 trying to make the playoffs. They pushed him past the limit to get the elusive no-hitter. We don’t know if these events lead to the shoulder surgeries. What we do know is Johan gave the Mets all he had.
With Johan giving the Mets all he could, the Mets should at least offer him the least they could. If he doesn’t have it, it’s better coming from a friend that respects him and can thank him for his play with the Mets. If he does have it, Johan can go out on his own, and the Mets can strengthen their team.
The Mets should bring back Johan.
From reports, the Mets have about $20 million to spend this offseason. The free agent market is a dud. The Mets seem to want a left handed bat for CF to replace Daniel Murphy even though the options aren’t really better than Juan Lagares.
In addition, the Mets bullpen will look good regardless of whether the Mets add a reliever or not. Their rotation is set for years to come. The Mets seem comfortable with the Murphy alternatives at second base. They seemingly just want that left-handed bat to balance out the lineup. With that in mind, they should just go out there and use their full budget on the best available player: Jason Heyward.
Heyward is a 25 year old outfielder who has yet to reach his prime. While he was with the Braves, he showed promise to be a power hitting outfielder hitting 27 homers in 2012. His numbers have not returned to that level. However, he’s been a productive hitter slashing .268/.353/.431 for his career and .293/.359/.439 last year. As he heads towards his prime, you can reasonably expect those numbers to improve.
In addition to his solid, if unspectacular hitting, Heyward has a reputation for being a good defensive player. Unlike Gerardo Parra, Heyward’s numbers match his reputation. Heyward won a deserved Gold Glove in 2014. He’s deservingly a finalist for the award which will be announced tonight. Over the past four years, Heyward has posted a UZR over 20. That’s definitively Gold Glove caliber.
The caveat is the Mets don’t need a RF, they want a left handed hitting CF. in his career, Heyward has been limited to just 32 games in CF. In those games, his UZR is 1.9. This would indicate he would be at least average in CF. However, truth be told 32 games is too small a sample size to rely upon for anything in baseball. Basically, it’s a gut decision. Can Heyward effectively handle CF for at least two years (Curtis Granderson has two years left on his deal)?
I believe he can (as do more reputable sources). I believe Heyward is a special player who just needs the right situation. Terry Collins has been good nurturing talent. Kevin Long had been good helping hitters find their swing. The Mets have a good locker room in general. This may be the ideal situation for Heyward even if he’s not playing at his preferred position.
He’s projected to receive about an 8 year $184 million contract. At the end of said contract, he would only be 33 years old. Translation: you’ve locked up a very good player for a reasonable price throughout his prime. You don’t have to pay for the down years like you typically do in a long term contract.
If the Mets are truly serious about contending in 2016, this is the move to make. Get Heyward in here and watch him blossom into the star we all thought he was when he was first brought up by the Braves. It’s rare you get the opportunity that helps you win now and in the future. The Mets have to seize that opportunity even if he’s the only player the Mets sign this offseason.
The Mets should sign Heyward.
I’m sure I’m not breaking any new ground when I say the Mets are not going to re-sign Daniel Murphy. However, it wasn’t until I read the tea leaves that I lost hope.
Look who the Mets have interest in signing as free agents:
My sense of the free agent CF types who are on the Mets’ radar at this point: Span, Fowler, Parra.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
They’re going after two left-handed and one switch hitting CF. Sure, it’s an indictment on how the Mets feel about Juan Lagares because you can’t expect these players to all of a sudden sign on to become a platoon player. It’s also a sign the Mets are not re-signing Murphy.
When and if the Mets lose Murphy, they’re losing a left-handed second baseman and presumably replacing him with one of two right-handed bats: Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores. This will make the Mets lineup right handed dominant with only three lefty hitters. This takes away the L-R-L switching in the lineup that Terry Collibs likes to do.
To keep the L-R-L in place the simple solution would be to keep Murphy. He’s seeking comparable money to the free agent CF. He’s insurance against David Wright breaking down, Lucas Duda slumping, Herrera not being ready, and/or Ruben Tejada being physically ready and able to play shortstop.
No, the Mets have announced they want to go with a left-handed CF. That’s how they’ll keep the L-R-L in the lineup. Things could change, but I doubt it. It’s a shame because Murphy was a good Met and the CF options aren’t that great.
So I will begin to make my piece with Murphy going to another team. I wish him the best.
Despite a good postseason and an offseason to heal, the Mets seem intent on having a different centerfielder in 2016. One of the players the Mets are interested in is Gerardo Parra.
This isn’t a new interest mind you. The Mets tried to trade for him last year before putting Michael Cuddyer on the DL and calling up Michael Conforto. Instead, the Mets watched Conforto become more than anyone dreamed he could be and saw Yoenis Cespedes play so well he garnered MVP consideration. With free agency, the Mets are circling back to Parra.
Parra is a career .277/.326/.404 hitter. He’s coming off his best offensive year. He hit .328/.369/.517 in 100 games in Miller Park, a hitter’s park. If you’re signing him based on these numbers, you believe these numbers translate to Citi Field. You believe he’s entering the prime of his career at age 28. You believe his .237/.268/.357 slash line in 55 games with the Orioles is too small a sample size to rely upon.
These are all reasonable assumptions. I can believe Parra is going to be a better offensive player in 2016 no matter where he signs. Coupled with Parra’s reputation as a good defensive player, he may be a bargain at the 3 year $24 million contract he’s expected to garner could be a bargain.
The problem is Parra’s defense is by reputation only. His UZR does not support his reputation. Last year, he had a -4.2 UZR as a leftfielder, which equates to him being a poor left fielder. It was a precipitous drop from his 3.2 UZR in 2014. I bring this up to be instructive. If he’s not as great a leftfielder as the numbers suggest, why would he be a good centerfielder?
The answer is he isn’t. He was abominable in CF last year with a -10.0 UZR in 289 innings. This was even worse than his -4.3 in 2014 in 65 innings. Translation, the more Parra plays in center, the more his flaws are exposed. Why would you want to see this over a 162 game season for the next three years?
Part of the reason the Mets lost the 2015 World Series was their defense. With that being the case, why would you seek to diminish the one area the Mets were Gold Glove caliber? Yes, Lagares had a down year. Yes, he’s had trouble against righties. However, even in a bad year, he’s still much better than Parra in center.
I understand looking to upgrade in center, but Parra is not the answer.