Michael Fulmer

Cespedes/Fulmer Trade Analysis Enters the Next StageĀ 

There are two times when any particular trade is judged. The first is when the trade is initially made. People look at the value derived from both teams and make a determination. The second is when the players involved play for their respective teams. These impressions are much longer lasting, and at times, these trades become quite infamous. 

On December 10, 1971, a pitching rich Mets organization traded their fifth or sixth starter Nolan Ryan along with three other players for Jim Fregosi. It could be argued it was a shrewd move as Ryan was 29-38 with the Mets, and the Mets were acquiring six time All Star Fregosi to fill a position of need. It was done to help improve a team thought to be a possible World Series contender. 

Ryan played more years than any other player. He won 324 games. He set all time records for strikeouts (5,714) and no-hitters (7). Fregosi played two years for the Mets hitting .233/.319/.328 in two season. The Mets are now universally panned for this trade. 

On August 12, 1987, the Detroit Tigers traded prospect John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander. The Tigers were 1.5 behind the Blue Jays in the AL East race. Alexander would go 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts for a Tiger team that would win the division by two games. He would go 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA in an ALCS the Tigers lost in five games. Alexander made the All Star team for the Tigers in 1988, and he would follow that with a league leading 18 loss season in 1989. 

Smoltz pitched 20 years for the Braves. In his career, he was 213-155 with 154 saves and a 3.33 ERA. He took his game to another level in the postseason. In 41 postseason games (27 starts), he was 15-4 with four saves and a 2.67 ERA. He was the 1992 NLCS MVP, and he was a member of the 1995 Braves World Series Championship team. He was inducted in the Hall of Fame in 2015. The Tigers are now universally panned for this trade. 

On August 30, 1990, the Boston Red Sox traded prospect Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson. The Red Sox had a 6.5 game lead and were trying to sure up the bullpen for the postseason. In the regular season, Anderson pitched in 15 games. He had a 1.23 ERA and one save. In the ALCS, he was 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three appearances. The Red Sox were swept by the Athletics, and Anderson would go to the Phillies in the offseason. 

Bagwell made his debut a year after the trade, and he would win the Rookie of the Year Award. He would win an MVP, be named to four All Star teams, three Silver Sluggers, and a Gold Glove. Last year, he received 71.6% of the Hall of Fame votes. He appears to be on track to be elected next year. The Red Sox are now universally panned for this trade. 

On July 7, 2008, the Cleveland Indians traded CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers for four prospects headlined by Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley (PTBNL). The Brewers were four games out and in third place in the NL Central. They were a half a game out of the Wild Card. Sabathia would make 17 starts, many on short rest, for the Brewers going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. The Brewers won the Wild Card on the last game of the season. Sabathia started that last game allowing only one run in a complete game win. 

In his lone NLDS start, a fatigued Sabathia would only last 3.2 innings while allowing five runs in a Game Two loss. The Brewers would lose the series, and Sabathia would sign with the Yankees in the offseason. 

LaPorta lasted only four years for the Indians hitting .238/.301/.393. He hasn’t played a major league game since 2012. Brantley is in his eighth season for the Indians. He has hit .293/.349/.422 in his career. In 2014, he was an All Star, won the Silver Slugger, and he finished third in the MVP voting. The Brewers now receive universal praise for the trade. 

On July 31, 2015, a pitching rich Mets organization traded Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa for Yoenis Cespedes. At the time of the trade, the Mets trailed the Nationals by three games in the NL East. Cespedes would hit .287/.337/.604 with 17 homeruns and 44 RBI. The Mets would win the NL East by seven games. Cespedes hit .222/.232/.352 with two homers and eight RBI. He signed a three year deal with the Mets with an opt out after one year. To date, a vast amount of Mets fans approve of the trade. 

Cessa was traded by the Tigers to the Yankees. He made his major league debut this year pitching two innings and allowing one earned in his only appearance. He was sent down to Triple-A. It is too early to tell what will become of his career. 

Fulmer was the Tigers main target in the Cespedes trade. Fulmer was a first round pick by the Mets in the 2011 draft. In a deep system stocked with pitching talent, he was a well regarded prospect. Once he became a Tiger, he quickly became their top prospect. 

Tonight is his first career start. It will be not only the first chapter in his career, but it will also be the first chapter on how we judge what the Tigers received in exchange for Cespedes. 

Almost immediately, the Mets wish they could’ve undone the Fregosi trade. Anderson and Alexander undoubtedly helped their teams, but in retrospect, the Red Sox and Tigers wish they could’ve undone those trades. On the other hand, the Brewers are pleased with their trade. 

We’re about to start finding out where the Cespedes trade falls in Nolan Ryan to CC Sabathia spectrum. 

In Retrospect the Cespedes Trade Was Still a Bad Trade

When assessing what’s left of this offseason, Sandy Alderson has given fair critiques on what remains. He has stated Yoenis Cespedes was a square peg for a round hole. In essence, Alderson was saying Cespedes’ bat doesn’t justify his poor defense. 

Last year, Cespedes’ UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in centerfield was -3.2, which is also his career average. UZR tells us he’s a below average centerfielder. DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) paints an uglier picture. Cespedes was a -17 in center last year, which is about as bad as it gets. His career average in his prior years in center is -4, which suggests he’s below average. Therefore, no matter what stat you want to use, Cespedes is a poor defensive centerfielder in a spacious Citi Field outfield. 

Mets fans seem to feel differently because Cespedes hit extraordinarily well when he came to the Mets. When he was hitting like that you could justify his poor defense in a key defensive position. Problem is Cespedes just doesn’t hit like that. He’s a low OBP with good power (or potencia). He is a career .261/.319/.486 hitter. He is a career .236/.302/.491 hitter at Citi Field. I know I expected that to be a lot higher too. Thing is if Cespedes reverts back to these numbers, you can’t justify playing him in centerfield everyday. 

Understandably, Mets fans remember him more for his insane hot streak. They overly correlate winning the division with Cespedes’ arrival. Some will dismiss the statistics and point to the eye test. With respect to the eye test, all I can say is Cespedes gave up not one, but two, Little League homeruns last year. How many centerfielders do that?  

Overall, the Cespedes’ situation leaves me irritated. No, I’m not irritated because the Mets aren’t going to re-sign him. I’m irritated because of what they gave up to get him

The Mets gave up Michael Fulmer for three months of Cespedes. At the time of the trade, the industry believed Fulmer was an unbelievable get for the Tigers. Yes, baseball people said the Tigers won the deal; not the Mets. Part of the reason might be the fact the Tigers most likely couldn’t re-sign him due to the language in his contract. Cespedes wouldn’t and most likely couldn’t re-sign with the Tigers, and they got Fulmer in the deal? It just wasn’t a good trade. The Tigers were the more desperate team, and the Mets still gave up too much value for a player they knew they weren’t going to re-sign. 

Fulmer could be a potential ace. Last year in AA, he was the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year. He’s a guy who can get his fastball up to 97 MPH with a full repertoire. He can probably help a big league team in 2016. He will be bringing that talent to the Tigers instead of the Mets. 

Usually, it’s at this point I hear how you have to give up something to get something. That’s fine, but that doesn’t change the fact the Mets have up too much for a player they had no intentions of re-signing. I’ll also hear how it was worth it because the Mets won the NL East and made the postseason.  That’s a stretch considering the Nationals imploded, and the Mets won the division by seven games. 

Furthermore, this trade ignores the John Smoltz trade. In 1987, the Tigers traded Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. Alexander was terrific for the Tigers going 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA. He helped the Tigers win the AL East. I’m sure Tigers fans were elated. The problem is the Tigers didn’t win the World Series, and oh yeah, they traded away a future Hall of Famer.  Do you think the Tigers and their fans would want a do-over on that trade?

Is Fulmer a Hall of Famer?  We don’t know that yet. We don’t know if he’ll be an ineffective starter and have to go to the bullpen. The thing is his value as a potential ace was much higher than a rental. 

Here’s what we do know: 

  1. The Mets lost 15 pitchers over the last year;
  2. The Mets had to sign a fifth stater this offseason; and 
  3. The Mets didn’t win the World Series. 

That’s it in a nutshell. The Mets tout all this pitching depth, and yet they’re signing guys like Bartolo Colon because they didn’t have a fifth starter. Furthermore, the Mets don’t have a World Series title to show for losing all that pitching. In fact, they don’t even have a Cespedes. So while I agree with Sandy Alderson that Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder, I can’t agree with him giving up a potential ace to a  desperate team for someone he saw as a square peg to a round hole. 

Just like most Mets fans, I’m irritated over the Cespedes situation. However, I’m irritated because they gave up a lot to bring him to New York. I’m alright with them admitting he wasn’t a centerfielder. I just wish they realized that before sacrificing a part of their future. A part of their future that will come all the more important when the Mets may not have the money to re-sign any of Matt HarveyJacob deGrom, or Noah Syndergaard
When that times comes, what will you be thinking?  Will you be thinking the three months of Cespedes was worth it, or will you be wondering about how the Mets really could’ve used Fulmer to cushion the blow?  My bets on the latter. 

Editor’s Note: this first ran on metsmerizedonline.com

Mets Diminishing Pitching Depth

Going into last year, the Mets were well noted for their organizational pitching depth. It wasn’t just the pitchers that were in the majors, but it was also the pitchers on the way. The thought process was the Mets could select the pitchers to keep to help the rotation and trade the others for a bat. 

Well, the Mets are going into the 2016 season, and their depth isn’t the same as this regime seems comfortable jettisoning this team’s pitching depth. A large part of the reason was the unwillingness and/or inability to spend in the offseason last year. Here is the list of pitchers gone from the Mets organization:

  1. Greg Peavey
  2. Randy Fontanez
  3. Cory Mazzoni
  4. Brad Wieck
  5. Casey Meisner
  6. John Gant
  7. Robert Whalen
  8. Michael Fulmer
  9. Luis Cessa
  10. Matt Koch
  11. Miller Diaz
  12. Dawrin Frias
  13. Jack Leathersich
  14. Jon Niese
  15. Matthew Bowman

This list doesn’t include Logan Verrett, who was selected in last year Rule 5 draft and returned. It also doesn’t include Tyler ClippardBartolo ColonEric O’Flaherty, Bobby Parnell, and Alex Torres because, at least in theory, they all could return to the Mets next year. In any event, that’s a lot of pitchers gone and/or potentially gone from the 2014 Winter Meetings and the 2015 Winter Meetings. 

After losing all these pitchers, the Mets only have two . . . TWO . . . players on their 2016 major league roster resulting from these moves: Addison Reed and Neil Walker. Also, the Mets still need a fifth starter and possibly bullpen help. You would think after losing 15 pitchers in a year, you’d be in a better position. 

Now, the important caveat here is not all of these pitchers are of the same caliber. For example, Peavey and Fontanez were selected in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft. Also, I did defend the trade that brought in Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson. On the flip side, I did not like the trades which brought in Clippard and Yoenis Cespedes

I’m not in the crowd that justifies these deals due to the Mets winning the pennant. You win the World Series, you’re untouchable because you did what was necessary. However, the Mets lost all that pitching and still fell short. Think of it another way. Do you think the Tigers would’ve traded winning the AL East for John Smoltz‘ career?

With all that said, the Mets still deserve some credit here. Even though they lost all that pitching, they still have good pitching prospects like Robert Gsellman. I just wish they spent more money last offseason and kept some of those pitchers to give them more options to make deals this winter or this upcoming summer. 

Keep in mind that sooner or later losing all this pitching will eventually catch up with them. I’m not looking forward to the day that happens. 

Sandy Alderson Had a Bad 2015

Here’s a question for you. If you had a GM that gave a bad contract to a 35 year old, forfeiting a pick in the process, and depleted it’s farm system of its top end starting pitching prospects for rentals, what would you call that GM?  Apparently, you call Sandy Alderson the Executive of the Year

Before proceeding, I’d like to note Alderson has generally done a good job with the Mets. The R.A. Dickey trade was a stroke of genius. However, that happened three years ago, and this is a 2015 award.

Alderson made two major league free agent signings for the 2015 season. The first was Michael Cuddyer. It was immediately panned by everyone.  Alderson was out-maneuvered there by the Rockies of all organizations. With the Mets all but declaring they were signing David Wright‘s friend, the Rockies gave Cuddyer a qualifying offer. The Mets then gave Cuddyer a two year $21 million contract. Cuddyer was hurt, and he regressed as 35 year old players do. He’s now a $12.5 million bench player. 

The other free agent deal was John Mayberry, Jr.  Mayberry hit .164/.227/.318. He was released at the end of July. Overall, Alderson’s free agent acquisitions were complete busts. 

His trades weren’t much better. Do you realize for a team touted with organizational starting pitching depth, Alderson depleted much of it. He traded eight minor league arms in total. For all the pitchers that were traded, Addison Reed is the only player the Mets could keep in 2016. By the way, Reed is a non-tender candidate

Yes, the Mets made the World Series. They also lost it. For all the moves and sacrificing the future, the Mets still fell short. Further, it does not appear the moves generated enough revenue to sufficiently increase payroll. In the end, the Mets have up two big pitching prospects for rentals.  If you’re saying it was worth it, I ask you if John Smoltz was worth it?

In 1987, Smoltz was traded for Doyle Alexander. Alexander went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA for the Tigers. His fantastic run certainly mirrors the run Yoenis Cespedes had this year. Like the Mets, the Tigers won their division. Like the Mets, the Tigers didn’t win the World Series. The Tigers lost out on a Hall of Fame career. Time will only tell with Michael Fulmer. However, we do know he’s a highly rated prospect the Tigers believe can contribute very soon. 

It’s the reason I said it was a bad trade from the beginning. It’s even worse when you consider the Tigers had to trade Cespedes because they were about to lose him for nothing. 

Then there’s the issue of giving up another well regarded prospect in Casey Meisner for  Tyler Clippard. Clippard was a rental.  Yes, Clippard was terrific early on with the Mets, and he helped the Mets win the division. Addison Reed was even better, and the Mets obtained him for much less. Again, this was a bad trade. 

No, Alderson won this award for his earlier work and the system built by Omar Minaya. Alderson weakened the farm system in 2015, and he may now need to trade away major league talent rather than minor leaguers to improve the team in 2016. After all his moves, the Mets still don’t have a shortstop. There may also be new holes in center and at second. 

Alderson has had a good run here, but he was not good in 2015. He certainly wasn’t the best executive in 2015. Unfortunately, this should bear out in the oncoming years. 

Let’s Not Throw Away Draft Picks

There are many thoughts about this offseason that baffles me. One is this notion that since the Mets offered Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, it doesn’t matter if the Mets sign a player whose received a qualifying offer. The premise is the two moves cancel each other out. 

For the uninitiated, the way the qualifying offer system works, if you sign a player who was offered a qualifying offer by another team, you forfeit your first round pick. In exchange, the team that lost a player has a pick tacked on to the end of the first round. 

The only exception to this is if you have a Top 10 pick. In that instance, you forfeit your second round pick. The team losing the player still has a pick added to the end of the first round. 

Right now, the Mets have the 24th pick in the 2016 draft. That pick will go higher if someone between 11-23 signs Murphy. In addition, the Mets will get another pick somewhere after the Cardinals and the start of the second round. 

Now, I don’t buy the cancel each other nonsense. People are saying moving down a few slots is not a big deal. What’s the difference between picking 24th and say 33rd. That’s flawed thinking for a few reasons. 

The first is their focus is misplaced.  Say Murphy signs with the Rockies as reported. This means the Mets keep their 24th pick and receive the 31st pick (depending on how many teams lose a player in free agency and their W-L records). That’ll give you two picks in the top say 35. If the Mets forfeit their first round pick, their second pick will be in the 50’s to 60’s. 

Now, draft picks aren’t a guarantee, but I’d assume that the player picked at 24 will be thought of as a better player than the player picked at 33 and the player picked 52. In addition, wouldn’t you rather have three picks in the top 60 as opposed to two?  

This also brings me to my second point. The Mets farm system is decent, but it’s taken some hits lately:

  1. There was no 2015 first round pick due to the signing of Michael Cuddyer;
  2. Trading potential future ace Casey Meisner for Tyler Clippard; and 
  3. Trading an even better pitcher in Michael Fulmer for Yoenis Cespedes.

In essence, the Mets could benefit from bringing in some more talented players. The idea here is to create a flow of prospects to the major league level. If you lose someone, you want to have a player waiting in the wings. If you need to make a trade, you want a well regarded prospect to make the trade you need to make. 

Now, if the Mets feel they are one player away, sign that player. The goal is to win the World Series, and the Mets are so close. However, you have to be right. The Mets thought they were close to becoming a contender coming into the 2015 season, so they signed Cuddyer. Turns out they were right, but only after trading for Cespedes and calling up Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto

Moral of the story is you have to be right otherwise you have a $12 million bench player instead of a first round pick who could’ve been a stud. Remember, prospects are always worth more than aging, expensive bench players.  That’s why you don’t just sign someone with a qualifying offer attached to him.  

You only sign that player if they’d be worth a big prospect because that’s what you’re doing. 

Reading Between the Lines

The New York Times has an excellent piece today on Yoenis Cespedes. There were some things we learned or were reaffirmed:

  1. Cespedes desperately wants to win;
  2. Cespedes was the only OF available for the Mets on the eve of the trade deadline; and 
  3. It’s going to be very expensive to re-sign him. 

In reading the article, there are some things I personally interpreted. 

The Tigers Were Desperate 

The Tigers used Jim Leyland to take advantage of his relationship with Terry Collins to tell him Cespedes was available. I’m not an expert, but I presume trade negotiations are not normally done between a manager and a former manager. 

This was a way to put pressure on the Mets to go get Cespedes, a player with whom the Mets had reservations. Everyone on the planet knew the Mets offense was terrible. Collins must’ve been going crazy filling out a lineup card that included John Mayberry, Jr. in the cleanup spot. I’m sure when Collins found out the Mets could get Cespedes, I’m sure he ran through the Mets offices telling anyone who would listen to get the deal done. 

Again, the Mets were split. Maybe this Leyland-Collins conversation is what finally pushed the Mets to go out and get Cespedes. 

The Mets Have Soured on Juan Lagares

One of the key aspects of the decision to get Cespedes was whether or not he could play CF. This was after the Mets failed attempts to get Carlos Gomez. Remember in that deal, the Mets were pushing to trade the Brewers Juan Lagares and his contract. It’s apparent the Mets didn’t just want a bat; they wanted a CF. 

I’m shocked as the Mets were high on him as long as a year ago when they gave him the extension. Now it seems, they want to move on. That’s a huge fall out of favor for a gold glove CF. 

The Mets Only Saw Cespedes as a Rental

As noted in the article, the Mets knew about the five day clause in Cespedes’ contract. They knew it would be difficult to bring him back to the fold in 2016 and beyond. The article further notes that Alderson doesn’t typically give out contracts to players of Cespedes’ age because Alderson likes his teams to have payroll flexibility. Cespedes will more likely recieve than David Wright‘s $138 million. That really restricts the Mets payroll flexibility when they will have to eventually pay these young pitchers. 

This May Be a Test Case for Future deGrom Negotiations

As luck would have it, Cespedes shares the same agent as Jacob deGrom. Their agent, Roc Nation, and chief negotiator, Brodie Van Wagenen, are known to be tough and to be able to get the maximum value for their clients. The Mets dipped their toes on what it will be like when Robinson Cano was a free agent. The Mets came off as looking like they weren’t serious. 

Whether the Mets eventually re-sign Cespedes or not, they need to put their best foot forward here. It’s possible the Mets will be outbid while still making a real, viable attempt to keep him. Remember there’s always a crazy team out there. Just look at contacts given to Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard

The point here is to look like a serious team that can and will spend money. 

Sandy Alderson Wants to Win Now

There was every reason not to make this trade. Cespedes was not the type of player the Mets sought out under Alderson’s regime: he swings wildly and doesn’t walk enough. The fact that Michael Fulmer could turn out to be the Mets best pitching prospect, current Mets pitchers included. There was dissension within the Mets front office whether to proceed. 

Alderson saw an opportunity, and he went for it. Sure he took advice from his advisors, but he made the final call. It was gutsy and risky. Whether or not you agree with the trade, you have to respect how Alderson made the call. 

There are some other nuances that are there, but these are the main ones in my opinion. In any event, while I disagreed with the trade, I’m loving the Cespedes ride. I’m not so excited about how the offseason will shake out. I’m putting that out of my mind right now. 

I’m just enjoying the ride for now. Lets Go Mets!

Glimpse of the Cespedes Trade Debacle

We may soon find out how bad the Yoenis Cespedes trade was. With an injury to Daniel Norris, the Tigers are pondering calling-up Michael Fulmer

This is salt in the wound after watching Terry Collins throw away the last game in Baltimore. In part, that is because of the ineptitude of the Mets front office in handling the innings restrictions. If Fulmer is truly ready, he could have been used for a spot start over Logan Verrett. This way the Mets bullpen, in the middle of a pennant race, wouldn’t be understaffed for a full week. 

There’s also the possibility if Fulmer stayed with the Mets organization, he wouldn’t be called up to make a spot start. Correction, there is no way they would call him up. Considering they won’t consider Steven Matz in the bullpen, they wouldn’t consider Fulmer there either; especially with the intriguing possibility of Vic Black

Also, don’t misconstrue this as me saying I don’t want Cespedes. It was a sign to the Mets fans and players the team was all-in. The Mets took off since that time. However, this is a question of whether the Mets had to give up Fulmer. I still say they didn’t. Sandy Alderson balked and the departing GM didn’t.  This trade could very well haunt them. 

So in the history of John Smoltz and Jeff Bagwell, the Mets may get a glimpse of what could have been part of their future. 

Mets Lost the Cespedes Trade

I know Yoenis Cespedes is a huge upgrade for the Mets. He provides power, speed, and good defense. However, unless the Mets win the World Series, this trade is a failure. 

Actually, no. This is a bad trade regardless of the outcome of the Mets season.  The reason why I say this is because Sandy Alderson had the leverage and he caved. 

Cespedes is a unique rental player because he has a clause in his contract that requires his team [the Tigers] to release him once his contract expires.  This prevents the Tigers from extending him a qualifying offer to receive draft pick compensation in the event he signs with another team. A player wants this to prevent what happened to Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales (even if Cespedes’ contract was signed prior to these holdouts). 

Now, because Cespedes would be a released player, as opposed to a free agent, the Tigers would only have five days after the World Series to sign him. If they cannot sign him within that time period, they lose the chance to sign him until after the season starts. 

Cespedes’ agent is Roc Nation, who also represents Robinson Cano and Rusney Castillo. Roc Nation has obtained deals that have been perceived as above the market. In both instances, Roc Nation really let the market develop and bid teams against one another. I know Cespedes wants to resign with the Tigers, but he’s not leaving money on the table. Keep in mind Robinson Cano wanted to remain a Yankee.

This is where it gets interesting. Dave Dombrowski was left with three options: 1) make no deals and try to get into the playoffs; 2) work out a deal now for Cespedes or 3) trade him and be in a better position to sign him in the offseason.  Once the Tigers traded David Price it confirmed they were selling. I’m sure Dombrowski inquired as to whether Cespedes would sign a deal, but I’m equally as sure Cespedes wants to test the market. That means Dombrowski HAD TO TRADE CESPEDES. If he didn’t, he risked losing him for nothing. 

Admittedly, Alderson was in a tough spot. The Carlos Gomez trade fell apart and things got ugly. Wilmer Flores was crying in the field. There were accusations the Mets really nixed the deal over finances. Then Gomez goes to the Astros, who have no problem with his hip. The fans and media were getting tense, if not angry. 

So, we’re left with one GM who must make a deal, and one GM that has pressure but isn’t required to make a deal. Sandy Alderson is the one who blinked. 

It seems all along Dombrowski “badly wanted” Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa.  Fulmer was the Mets’ 2011 supplemental draft pick (#44 overall). Currently, he is Baseball America’s 98th best prospect. Reportedly, the Mets were willing to part with Zack Wheeler in the Gomez deal due to the emergence of Fulmer. Fulmer has a 96-97 MPH fastball with a good slider and good command of both sides of the plate. He has recently been compared to Matt Garza and Garrett Richards. This is another way of saying he’s a #2 starter with a real competitive streak. 

Cessa is a project. He’s converted to pitcher and he is developing his repertoire in AAA. He can throw 95 MPH and is working on his off speed stuff. As you can see, there may be promise here, but he’s probably a bullpen arm, at best. He’s not the player that haunts you in a deal like this. 

The player that haunts you is Fulmer, who has already been described as an “unbelievable get for a rental.”  Not just a rental, but a rental the Mets probably can’t resign (financial issues aside). I’ve seen the Mets and their fans argue Fulmer is not part of the Mets’ core talent, whatever that means. I’ve seen Fulmer described as not being one of the Mets top five prospects. So what?  You trade value for value. 

It’s funny. I don’t see these same people noting the Mets just gave the Tigers their 5th and 9th best prospects. I don’t think I would’ve been happy with just Fulmer in the deal. Keep in mind this is the Mets gave up for a rental.  In fact on Baseball Tonight, Keith Law stated the Mets gave up their two best pitching prospects left in the farm system. 
I understand you have to give value to get value. That’s why I initially supported the Gomez trade and like the proposed Jay Bruce deal (I also agreed with the Mets that once the Reds ask for more, you have to walk away). However, Cespedes had dwindling value to the Tigers. He was more valuable to them with another team at this time.

Frankly, Alderson either blinked, panicked, or didn’t judge his prospects properly. This is unacceptable when you have the leverage.  I think Cespedes is a great addition, but the Mets gave up way too much. I don’t see why the Mets are going all-in when:

  1. They are in second place to a healing Nationals’ team;
  2. They are behind the Pirates, Giants, and Cubs in the Wild Card race; and
  3. Their pitchers are nearing their innings limits.

This was not the season to go all-in. Sure, you try to improve, but you don’t give up trade assets you’ll need next year, when you’re presumably a better team, to take you to the next level. Also, keep in mind they went all-in without shoring up all of their holes. They still need a SS and a LOOGY. Plus, they’re still a healthy David Wright from being a good offense. Can we trust he’ll come back this year and produce like David Wright?  

I really hope they win the World Series because if they don’t, they took what could’ve been a year to build on to a complete failure.