Jon Niese
Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:
April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0
- Juan Lagares CF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- John Mayberry, Jr. RF
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Dilson Herrera 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Matt Harvey P
July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Ruben Tejada SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Wilmer Flores 2B
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
- Juan Lagares CF
August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Michael Conforto LF
- Bartolo Colon P
September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
October 21, 2015 (estimated)
- Curtis Granderson RF
- David Wright 3B
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Steven Matz P
Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight.
I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series.
Over the past seven years, Jon Niese hasn’t become the pitcher we all thought he could be. The main reason is that he’s his own worst enemy. Whenever something went wrong, he would get angry and fall apart. It would lead to big innings. It made me believe he might not be good under pressure.
It turns out I might be wrong. So far this postseason, when things are the most pressure packed, Niese has been good. The issue all along might not have been the pressure but his anger. So far this postseason, he’s already got two big outs.
In Game Two of the NLDS, he came in with a runner in scoring position to face Andre Ethier (Justin Ruggiano pinch hit for him). In that horrendous inning, Niese was the only one who could get the big out to keep the Mets within striking distance. In an inning where everything went wrong, Niese was the one who kept his composure.
In Game Two of the NLCS, he came in during another pressure packed situation. Niese came on for Noah Syndergaard in the sixth inning. Anthony Rizzo stepped up to the plate. Niese struck him out on a full count preserving the 4-1 lead. For the second time in the postseason, Niese came into a pressure situation and came up big:
At least for the playoffs, Niese may be the LOOGY the Mets have sought all year. I give Niese credit for asking for the role. He’s going to be needed with Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber in this series. Rizzo is now only 2-18 with one huge strikeout against him. Schwarber is hitting .143/.213/.268 against lefties.
The Mets need Niese. They need him against lefties. They need him more now that he’s good under pressure.
The Mets are up 2-0 in this series because they repeated the same formula from last night: (1) great starting pitching; (2) Daniel Murphy hitting homers; and (3) Curtis Granderson being a table setter.
Noah Syndergaard used his fastball to overpower the Cubs lineup. On only two days rest from his relief appearance, he would pitch 5.2 innings allowing three hits, one earned, one walk, and nine strikeouts. The nine strikeouts but him in elite company:
https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/655932871832653824
Thor allowed his first and only run when Kris Bryant hit an RBI double. He walked off to a standing ovation and gave way to Jon Niese. Niese pitched today despite recently losing a family member. He summoned everything he had and struck out Anthony Rizzo. As he left the mound to cheers, he pointed to the sky as if to say thank you to the new angel who was at his side tonight.
Niese is NICE. #OwnOctober pic.twitter.com/wFZril6dP6
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) October 19, 2015
The Mets then went to the regular season bullpen formula of Addison Reed–Tyler Clippard–Jeurys Familia. The kept the Cubs at bay and preserved the 4-1 win.
The Mets got three of those four runs in the first. It started with a Granderson single. He scored on a . . . wait my notes can’t be correct . . . let’s me check the box score online. Wow, Granderson scored on an RBI double from David Wright. That is why you let your best players play. Speaking of your best player, Murphy hit yet another homerun.
He’s unconscious:
https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/655912985618161664
In the third, Granderson reminded everyone he should be in the way too soon MVP discussion. He walked and stole second. This gave the Cubs the opportunity to walk Murphy rather than let him hurt you again. Granderson then stole third and scored on the Yoenis Cespedes infield single. To further his MVP case, Granderson robbed Chris Coghlan of a homerun:
When you have great pitching and two players in a dogfight for NLCS MVP, you’re going to be up 2-0 in the series. After taking care of home field, the Mets travel to Wrigley with a significant advantage in the starting pitching matchup. Let’s let Bon Jovi take us out since the Mets are halfway there while living on a prayer:
There are two schools of thought in postseason roster construction: (1) don’t fix it if it’s not broken; or (2) you recalibrate your roster to maximize matchups in the next round. I’m in the later camp, however, my guiding principle is always to defer to the better player. I believe the Mets agree with this principle, and are reportedly considering roster tweaks.
Overall, I don’t think there will be any changes to the position players. Terry Collins announced Juan Uribe hasn’t had any baseball activities since the playoffs started. He won’t be on the NLCS roster, and if the Mets make it, he probably won’t be on the World Series roster.
Also, there won’t be a change in the rotation. The Mets will stay with the se four starters. This means if there is a change, it will be in the bullpen. With Bartolo Colon becoming a good setup man, anything is possible. However, I think most of the bullpen will remain the same.
Ultimately, the players on the bubble are most likely Jon Niese and Erik Goeddel. Neither pitched much in the NLDS. Niese pitched in Game 2 striking out the only batter he faced. Goeddel pitched in mop up duty in Game 3. He didn’t record an out. He allowed four hits and three earned. He was so bad, Collins was forced to bring in Jeurys Familia.
I think with Colon now being a valued set-up guy, it may open up a role as a long reliever. With Goeddel pitching so poorly in his only appearance, the Mets may look to add a set-up man instead. The two most likely candidates are Logan Verrett and Sean Gilmartin. Verrett has been pitching in the instructional league. Gilmartin has been idle, while traveling with the team.
Ultimately, I think no change is made. With Gilmartin being idle, I do not foresee him reprising his role as the long man. The role could go to Verrett, but I think the Mets want a lefty in the bullpen with Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber.
The Mets could consider swapping Goeddel for Verrett, but I’m not so sure it will help. Goeddel has gotten his feet wet in the playoffs, whereas Verrett hasn’t. Goeddel has pitched well against the Cubs, but that was only in two strong innings. It should be noted Verrett pitched well, but he has bounced back and forth between being a spot starter and the bullpen.
I’m starting to think will no changes will be made. I believe it’s the right choice.
As I pointed out earlier, the regular season numbers should be discounted coming into the playoffs. The Mets lineup is completely different. The pitching staff appears to be as well. Here is who pitched against the Cubs, and how they fared (* not on the postseason roster):
May 11, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Jacob deGrom L, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Hansel Robles 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Sean Gilmartin* 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Buddy Carlyle* 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Erik Goeddel 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
May 12, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Noah Syndergaard (first career start) L, 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Alex Torres* 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Sean Gilmartin* 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Hansel Robles 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
May 13, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Matt Harvey 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Carlos Torres* BS, L, 1.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Jeurys Familia 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
May 14, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Jon Niese L, 6.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Hansel Robles 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Jack Leathersich* 0.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Erik Goeddel 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
June 30, 2015 – Citi Field
Jon Niese L, 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Bobby Parnell* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Sean Gilmartin* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
July 1, 2015 – Citi Field
Bartolo Colon 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Bobby Parnell* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Jeurys Familia 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Hansel Robles 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres* L, 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Sean Gilmartin* 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
July 2, 2015 – Citi Field
Jacob deGrom L, 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Logan Verrett* 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Alex Torres* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
The Cubs beat the Mets seven times. Of those losses, two were by Jacob deGrom, two were by Niese, two were by Carlos Torres, and one was by Thor. Only deGrom and Thor remain in the rotation.
So to sum up, the Dodgers did do well against deGrom. Conversely, deGrom has reached another gear in the playoffs. The Cubs couldn’t hit Harvey. They never faced Steven Matz. They faced Thor in his first career start. Thor has gotten much better since that game:
#HammerTime. https://t.co/rUXBZyXYbA
— MLB (@MLB) October 16, 2015
Also, the Mets bullpen is significantly different. It’s important to note considering that Torres blew two games. They now have Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard.
While we know the Mets are a different team than, the Cubs are very similar. The only real change is Kyle Schwarber, who is just mashing the ball. However, I doubt he is enough to overcome the Mets pitching upgrades.
The Mets are vastly improved. I think it’s enough.
The focus on Game 2 was Chase Utley‘s dirty “slide” breaking Ruben Tejada‘s right leg. The focus was on MLB not knowing its own rules. The focus wasn’t on Collins.
Personally, I would not have started Noah Syndergaard in the seventh, but I can understand why Collins’ did it. I agree with Collins pulling Thor when he did. I can’t comprehend one decision he made after that.
First, let’s remember the situation. The Mets were leading 2-1. There were runners on first and second with one out. Sac fly ties the game. Collins goes to the bullpen to bring in Bartolo Colon?!?!?!? Sure, Colon is a veteran, and you want to trust your veterans, but Colon?
Colon doesn’t strike anyone out anymore. His K/9 is a very low 6.3. Also, he gives up a lot of flyballs. You don’t want that when the tying to is on third with less than two outs. Colon actually got the ground ball, and a terrific play by Daniel Murphy. However, we happened next.
In any event, Colon, your long man in the pen, was only used for one batter. He was then lifted, so Collins could bring in Addison Reed. This is the same Reed who two seconds ago was not good enough to bring in to get out of the inning. Now, you’re bringing him in to face Adrian Gonzalez, who is 1-2 with a walk against him.
Now, I know it’s a small sample size, but that’s part of the larger point. They played in the same division for two years. How is it possible they only faced each other three times. Someone, somewhere knew Reed couldn’t get Gonzalez out. Reed didn’t in Game 2. He gave up a two ru double to Gonzalez turning a 2-1 lead into a 3-1 deficit.
Still in the bullpen was Jon Niese, who has pitched well to Gonzalez. Gonzalez is 0-9 against Niese. If Niese isn’t pitching to Gonzalez than why is he in the bullpen? It dissent make sense especially when you consider Niese would eventually come on in that fateful seventh inning.
There was a lot going on at the time, but we all missed Collins make two huge gaffes in the seventh inning. That, along with the bad bullpen, the umpires, and the replay officials cost the Mets the game.
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
Quick question for everyone: what is the Mets goal for the rest of the season? Wrong. It’s not getting Homefield advantage. It’s getting the team ready for the playoffs.
In order for that to happen, here’s what needs to get done:
- Steven Matz needs to get five innings on Saturday or Sunday meaning a short start for either Jacob deGrom or Matt Harvey;
- You don’t risk David Wright‘s back playing on a sloppy or wet field;
- Yoenis Cespedes needs to be in Germany or anywhere that can aggressively treat a bruise;
- Jon Niese needs to pitch in two games this weekend;
- Play Dilson Herrera at multiple positions to see if he can make the playoff roster;
- No wasted at bats to Eric Campbell, Anthony Recker, Johnny Monell, or anyone that the Mets are not considering putting on the playoff roster;
- Same goes for the relievers even if there is a blowout. They need to stay fresh;
- Get Travis d’Arnaud back on track;
- Allow Michael Conforto to hit against some lefties because he’s eventually going to have to face one in October; and
- Get out of the weekend healthy.
If the Mets accomplish the above, they will be in a strong position entering the playoffs. Homefield advantage is secondary to this. If the Mets get it, great. If they don’t, it may inure to their benefit. Overall, I’m absolutely convinced the Mets do not need homefield advantage in the NLDS to win.
In an effort to pitch in the playoffs, Jon Niese volunteered to pitch in the bullpen. His first two appearances did not go well, but not all hope is lost. There are still some reasons why the Mets may want him on the NLDS roster, namely:
I think this is why Jon Niese will be on the postseason roster.
Chase Utley: 3 for 32 against him
Adrian Gonzalez: 0 for 9 against him
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 1, 2015
With those numbers against the Dodgers best hitter, there’s a spot for you on the team. He would most likely get the call when/if Gonzalez is up in a big spot.
Here’s his head-to-head data against some of the other Dodger players:
Jimmy Rollins 12-54, 3 doubles, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Carl Crawford 0-3
Andre Ethier 4-10, 2 strikeouts
A.J.Ellis 2-11, 1 double, two walks, 1 strikeout
Chris Heisey 3-10, 1 homerun, 1 strikeout
Howie Kendrick 1-7, 1 strikeout
Basically, he pitched pretty well against them. If not for 2015 arguably being his worst year and the presence of better options, you could make the argument he could start.
Besides his success against the Dodgers, Steven Matz has been dealing with a balky back. This means the Mets will need to have Bartolo Colon start Game Four or be ready to pitch in Game Four if Marz goes down. This means Niese may need to be ready as the long man in Colon’s stead
The other reason why he may be out there is the Mets don’t have a true LOOGY. They’re going to need someone to get those lefties out in the NLDS, and I’m not sure they’re going to trust Hansel Robles, even if he has the best numbers against lefties. If you’re going to insist on a lefty against a lefty, you might as well use one who’s had success against the Dodgers.
With three games left, there’s not much time to get him fully up to speed in the bullpen. At best, he probably can pitch in two more games. No matter what happens in those games, it will be a gamble to put Niese in the bullpen.
I’ll take that gamble over the gamble of having someone else pitching to Gonzalez in a big spot.