Can the Mets Take Back New York?

After two consecutive sweeps, the Mets are rolling. With the Nationals loss last night, the Mets increased their lead in the NL East. Not only do the players seem confident, the Mets fans also feel confident. So confident they have resumed the taking over New York talk. 

When I grew up, the Mets owned New York . . . it was the first and only time. The reason the Mets owned New York was not only because they were the winning team, but also the sheer caliber of their star power with Strawberry, Gooden, Carter, and Hernandez. It was a fun team and it was a fun time to be a Mets fan. 

It all came crashing down with the Worst Team Money Can Buy. The Mets were no longer likeable and they no longer winning. The Yankees then had a dynasty featuring the Core Four and the disturbingly forgotten Bernie Williams. Seriously, Yankee fans who refer to the Core Four do not deserve those championships. 

Seemingly, the Mets are primed yet again to take back New York. They have star power with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. When David Wight comes back, we can include him. It also helps that Matt Harvey and Steven Matz are local kids. 

The last time we had this conversation was 2006. The Mets were the best team in the regular season that year. They had star power with Wright & Reyes, the two Carloses, and Pedro. That was an immensely likeable team. Their attempt to take over New York ended with that Adam Wainwright curveball. 

After the 2007 & 2008 collapses and the Yankees’ 2009 World Series title, the possibility of taking over New York was dead. You see it’s not enough the Mets be really good; it’s also important they’re clearly better than the Yankees. Right now, the Yankees are also in first place. 

We Mets’ fans quickly forget most people now were raised Yankee fans, who worshipped the temple who was Derek Jeter. I’ve heard people like Mike Lupica say New York is a National League town. He’s obviously referring to the ghosts of the Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Giants. 

My grandfather was a New York Giants fan. He passed away almost thirty years ago. Initially, my father was a Brooklyn Dodgers fan. The Dodgers moved to LA when he was eight years old. When the Mets came into existence, the Yankees were the only team in town for five years. Effectively, it was for another seven as the Mets were mostly awful and always sub .500 prior to 1969. The New York is a National League town was either a myth or an outdated fairy tale. Long story, short, most people now have no concept of New York as a National League town. 

With that said and looking at everything, the Mets can potentially START taking over New York. Much of that will depend on the young pitching this year and in the ensuing seasons. Even if the Mets were to win the World Series this year, I’m not convinced the Mets take over New York. It will, however, accelerate the process. It’s not important to me that the Mets take over New York. However, I would still like to see it. 

I want to see it because it means we’ll see a stretch of baseball like we did from 1984 – 1992. It also means the Yankees fell on hard times, which is always good for the soul. Most importantly, it’s easier to raise my son a Mets’ fan when the team is actually good. I’d love for him to see Mets’ teams like the ones I had growing up. 

Why Was Harvey Pitching That Long?

The way the Mets have been playing, and with the way the Narkins have been playing, this game was effectively over after the Mets four run third. Once Juan Uribe hit a three run homerun in the fifth, the game was over. By the way, this park is so cavernous thst Uribe’s homerun was that much more impressive. Lucas Duda, himself tried to hit two out to CF and only came up with a SF in the ninth. 

Rather than lifting Matt Harvey after five, when he was essentially assured the win, he came out for the sixth and the seventh. You don’t throw him those additional unnecessary innings. Why even have Carlos Torres or Sean Gilmartin on the team if they can’t eat up some innings in a laugher?

I hate to be negative after two sweeps and the Mets in first place, but I just don’t understand what the Mets are doing. If Harvey has a no-hitter going, I understand.  Absent that, he should’ve been pulled. It makes me question how many innings the Mets have wasted with him, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. 

Further on the negative, Bobby Parnell was not good again. At least, Eric O’Flaherty came in and got out the lefty to snuff out the Markins only threat. He then let up two hits to lefties in the ninth to allow a run and give up the shutout. He let up a second run on an Ichiro RBI single. Collins’ then had to use Hansel Robles, who threw gasoline in the fire. 

Collins saw enough and was forced to bring in Jeurys Familia in a save situation in an inning that started 8-0. Talk about wasting a pitcher.  Familia let up an RBI single to Dee Gordon to make it 8-6.  By the time I was having Padres flashbacks, Familia induced Yelich to groundout to Duda to save the game. Again, if Torres and Gilmartin can’t pick up these innings, I have no idea why they’re on the team. By not using them, the Nets burned through a lot of arms. 

In other Mets news, we may have seen the first cracks in the platoon system with Uribe playing and Kelly Johnson sitting against a righty. 

I do want to focus on the Dee Gordon groundout to Daniel Murphy. He always comes to play. The Mets were up 7-0, and yet he’s hustling on a routine ball to second. When he was initially ruled safe, he made Murphy look bad (correction: Murphy made himself look bad).  Credit is due to Murphy there for immediately accepting responsibility for being lackadaisical. It reminded me of the famous George Brett quote:

I want to hit a routine grounder to second and run all out to first base, then get thrown out by a half step. I want to leave an example to the young guys that that’s how you play the game: ALL OUT. 

As a “Mets Daddy,” I appreciate Gordon and Murphy there. It’s great to be able to show him someone who not only plays the right way, but also someone who never gives up. I appreciate Murphy there because rather than make a scene because Gordon should’ve been called out (which he was after replay), he accepted responsibility. I know there was a lot better parts of the game to focus upon, but as a Dad and baseball fan that was my favorite play if the game. 

Knee Jerk Decisions

After the end of his stay on the 15 day DL, Michael Cuddyer says he will return to the Mets this Friday. This leaves Terry Collins and the front office with crucial decisions to make. 

The first is who gets sent down to make room for Cuddyer?  The two most obvious candidates are Eric Campbell and Michael Conforto because they both have options. The argument for Campbell being sent down is he’s not playing much. The argument for Conforto is Cuddyer may not be ready to play everyday. If Cuddyer is not ready to play, Conforto, similar to Kevin Plawecki, will stay in the majors. 

The second issue is what will Cuddyer’s role be?  To his credit, Cuddyer had said his main focus is to win, even if that means he’s on the bench. If Collins follows his lead, Cuddyer will play as often as his knee will permit and for as long as he’s effective. Since the acquisitions, Collins had implemented a platoon system

This means Cuddyer could be used to give Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson a day off against tough lefties. I would argue it should only be against tough lefties as they’ve been the two best hitters all year (trade acquisitions excluded). Collins could use Cuddyer in a LF platoon with Conforto, which unfortunately, is something Collins looks like he’s doing with Cuddyer and Juan Lagares now. 

The last question: is this the right time?  If Cuddyer is healthy, he should be on this team, and he should play. If he’s not, taking him off the DL is premature. Now, he could ease his way back by DHing against the Rays. The Mets will not a DH again for another week and a half. 

However, he could also ease his way back by playing rehab games and seeing how the knee responds. That is the more prudent move. I know it may be tough for Cuddyer to accept, but the team doesn’t need him right now. Now, if he’s healthy, he’s an upgrade to the roster and should be added immediately. I appreciate him wanting to come back and help, but the Mets need to protect him from himself. They also need to protect this roster from dead weight. 

I hope Cuddyer comes back soon and contributes. I hope the Mets send down Conforto. I hope the Mets continue to win. 

Cespedes Will Leave for Greener Pasture$

I don’t understand who came up with the rumor that Yoenis Cespedes could resign with the Mets. It’s not going to happen. I don’t care that he said:

Keep in mind, the Tigers are optimistic the can resign him:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNightengale/status/627222615459958785

The thing is Cespedes has said he wants to stay with the Mets and Tigers long term. You know where he really wants to go?  The same place every player wants to go . . . the team that offers him the most money. Think about it. Why would a Cuban defector want to go to Oakland?  It’s because they offered the most money. How much does Cespedes want?  Think big:

https://mobile.twitter.com/marccarig/status/628735472664227840

Even if this is what it’ll take to resign him, the Mets need to agree to that deal within five days after the World Series. My impression is if the Mets do offer it, Roc Nation will shop it around and get a better deal for Cespedes. 

Keep in mind the Mets didn’t magically become flush with cash. They’re actually going to have to pay David Wright next year. I can’t imagine the Mets going from asking the Athletics (twice) and Braves to kick in money on a trade and then spending like drunken sailors next year. 

Also, the Mets have a pending logjam in the outfield next year. Curtis Granderson will be making $16 million. Michael Cuddyer will be making $12.5 million. Juan Lagares will be making $2.5 million. Michael Conforto has already found his way to the majors and may be in the mix next year. Plus, Brandon Nimmo is not far away. 

They’ll have to move someone to make room for Cespedes, and they won’t have enough time to do it. They’ll also have to determine what to do with Daniel Murphy, who is a free agent. I think the Mets might’ve initially been inclined to let him walk. However, with the second base uncertainty and David Wright’s back, they may look to bring him back. 

So, Mets’ fans need to enjoy Cespedes now because he won’t be back. Hopefully, he will get a bump in salary after a good postseason, maybe even a World Series title.  That is our best case scenario. 

What’s the Wright Timeline?

When David Wright first started baseball activities, I offered as to what the timeline for his return would look like. Now we know, if all goes well, he’ll start minor league games on Monday. 

Using the proposed 41 day parameter, Wright would be ready to be called up by Saturday, September 19th in a game against the Yankees. That would leave Wright with 15 major league games to get ready for the postseason. 

However, MLB rehabilitation rules limit a position player to a maximum of 20 days. Therefore, barring any setbacks, David Wright should be back in action on Sunday, August 30th against the Red Sox. Since this game will not be moved, it’s a good time to bring the family to a game during a pennant race. 

It would be nice to have a Mr. Met Dash again where you can run by the position David Wright most recently played. 

O’Flaherty Our New Lefty Man

Finally, the Mets are addressing their second biggest roster hole: the lack of a LOOGY.  The Mets have added Eric O’Flaherty for a player to be named later. I’m assuming the prospect will be of no consequence (although I’m leery with the Mets receiving cash), and accordingly, I love the trade. 

Jerry Blevins had been brilliant to start the year. However, he broke his arm, and it took longer to heal than anticipated. He’s finally been cleared to throw, but there is no timetable for his return. If he does come back, it’ll give the Mets two LOOGYs. That’ll be a nice weapon when you still have six games remaining  against Bryce Harper and the Nationals. 

For his part, O’Flaherty should only be used against lefties. He’s holding lefties to a triple slash line of .186/.286/.209. He has not given up a homerun to a LHB. Conversely, he’s gotten mauled by righties to the tune of .420/.491/.620. 

This is also addition by subtraction because the Mets designated Alex Torres for assignment. At first glance, Torres‘ 3.15 ERA suggests he’s pitched well. However, his peripherals are scary. He has an FIP of 5.68 and a 1.515 WHIP. Furthermore, he’s a lefty who can’t get out lefties. They’re hitting a triple slash line of .268/.406/.393. 

Overall, this is a good trade that addresses a real team need. The only downside is that it’ll drive me even crazier that I can’t get a personalized jersey. 

Outta Hand

Now, we’ve seen these Mets for the past 50 plus seasons. They face a spot starter, emergency starter, or rookie pitcher, and they struggle at the plate. Tonight, it was Brad Hand. 

Personally, I knew the Mets were in for a tough night when I saw Angel Hernandez on the mound. For the uninitiated, the Mets have a history with him. This is mostly because he’s a bad umpire. 

Luckily, Jon Niese pitched very well. He kept this team in the game while they struggled against the 1-2, 5.12 ERA Hand.  In fact, the Mets didn’t score until Adam Conley came in the game. It took a Wilmer Flores [standing ovation] double and nice slide (good job by Niese directing him where to slide) to tie the game on the Ruben Tejada single. 

For the second time this year, Eric Campbell bailed out Terry Collins for some questionable moves. Collins had Flores bunt with two on and no out in the eighth. Flores popped out [polite applause], and Tejada couldn’t deliver. Campbell then got the go-ahead bloop hit, right over the outstretched hands of Hechavarria, scoring Lucas Duda.  Juan Lagares gave some breathing room with a two run RBI triple. The rally ended with a Curtis Granderson RBI double, which stretched the lead to 5-1. 

Tyler Clippard and Jeurys Familia had a bumpy eighth and ninth respectively. However, they didn’t give up a run. 

Despite winning this game, Collins’ decision making was very questionable. Look, I know I’ve been the one pounding the drum that Terry Collins has been using the platoon system; however, you cannot use it to sit Michael Conforto. When he was called up, the Mets took on the responsibility of playing him everyday. If he’s not going to play everyday, they should bring up Darrell Ceciliani. 

No matter what the Nationals do tonight (they’re currently tied at three in the eighth), the Mets will remain in sole possession of first place. Just don’t tell Bryce Harper. 

Mets Shouldn’t Matz with the Rotation

The Mets have a real problem with their rotation right now . . . and I don’t just mean Bartolo Colon.  No, I’m referring to the innings limit problem

I was naively hoping the Mets were going to ignore the limitations while being smart about how they use their pitchers. For example, if any of the stud muffins are having a rough start, they would pull them a little early. If there is a large run differential, the pitcher could sit down earlier. 

I was wrong. It appears the Mets still intend to manage the innings of the stud muffins by having spot starters during the rest of the season. In fact, Terry Collins stated the Mets will soon use a spot starter

However, the Mets still ultimately want to go with a six man rotation. The most likely candidate is Steven Matz, who was reported to have begun throwing yesterday.  If all goes according to plan, Matz will rejoin the rotation for the September stretch run. While we all enjoyed his first two starts, I’m not anxious for his return. 

It is too late in the season to mess around with the pitching rotation, which has carried the team thus far. Furthermore, the statistics are not kind to six man rotations. In fact, pitchers’ ERA increases with the extra day of rest. 

This begs the question: why would you mess with your biggest strength?  We all know it’s pitching that will carry the Mets into the playoffs. The new offense is performing well, but it’s pitching that will help the Mets win now, and we know pitching wins in October. 

I already know your answer: we want to protect the young arms. Mets fans have scars from Generation K.  Younger fans may remember Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. I think everyone knows the story of Stephen Strasburg sitting out the 2012 postseason

The end result?  The Nationals lost in the NLDS to the eventual World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals three games to two. Strasburg’s replacement in the rotation was the immortal Edwin Jackson.  Now Strasburg is injured again (not the elbow) and many question his mental makeup, fairly or unfairly.  Thankfully, Terry Collins has assured us we will not see a repeat of the Strasburg incident  as the stud muffins will pitch in the playoffs

However, I’m still troubled by the innings limits. The main reason is because it is based upon the disproven “Verducci Effect.”  I’m not willing to risk a whole season on faulty logic.  Furthermore, I think the six man rotation overtures are disingenuous. 

If the Mets were truly serious about the six man rotation, Dillon Gee would be in the rotation now. Over his last five starts, he’s 4-0 with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and two consecutive complete games. He’s doing this in an extreme hitter’s league. I know he was not good this year while he was being jerked around regarding his role with the team and the organization. However, I must ask, if the Mets are truly concerned with results, why is Colon in the rotation?

I’m not going to belabor the point, but he’s been awful this year. I’m not going to turn in the blinders because he had a good start against the worst offensive team in baseball, who is without Giancarlo Stanton. Overall, Colon has the fifth worst ERA in the NL. Even with a revived offense, is this the guy you want to run out there every fifth day?  If you tell me you want to replace Colon with Matz, I’d say it would be a great move. 

Furthermore, if you want to protect the arms, it’s simple. The Mets need to fire Dan Warthen.  First, in 2013, Harvey was permitted to make multiple starts with forearm tightness. Harvey had Tommy John surgery. Second, Zack Wheeler pitched with ligament damage last season. Zack Wheeler had Tommy John surgery. Finally, Warthen, himself, declared Steven Matz fit to pitch. Matz then went on the DL. 

If it’s not Warthen’s fault, fine. Who is it?  The Mets need to root out the cause for the ignored aches and pains of their prime young pitchers. These problems became major injuries. If the Mets are really concerned with their young pitchers, they should start looking there instead of instituting another version of the six man rotation. 

Diversity Tomorrow?

One of the funniest and most absurd episodes of The Office was “Diversity Day.”  In this episode, Michael Scott tries to prove he’s not a racist by holding his own diversity seminar entitled “Diversity Tomorrow.”  The highlight of the episode is when Michael encourages/forces the employees to celebrate the melting pot of America by acting as the stereotypical versions of a particular race and guessing what race that particular person is. 

The reason why this episode was great, other than the genius of that show, was showing how even the most innocent of us carries or knows of biases. I don’t think it’s always purposeful, intentional, or with malice. Sometimes, it’s something we have been told is always true and had no reason to deny.

That’s why today’s Fangraphs’ post “Examining Latino Hitters’ Plate Discipline” is so thoughtful and provocative. We’re all familiar with the phrase, “you never walk off the island.”  It’s meaning is fairly innocuous. It just means in order to get noticed by scouts, you need to hit the ball. A scout will be more impressed with power and plate coverage than the ability to draw a walk. 

However, the correlation is that Latino baseball players don’t draw walks. You can get them out with pitches outside the zone because they’ll swing at everything. Its not just that they need to hit to get noticed, it’s also that they’re undisciplined, at least at the plate. It’s like a perceived flaw with a whole group of people. It just seems true, doesn’t it?  

Well, it turns out that Latino players do “‘indeed swing their way off the island.'”  However, it’s not true that they are less disciplined as American players. Latino players strike out less frequently and walk just as frequently as American players. Frankly, I was somewhat surprised by the result. I don’t have the time on my hands that Fangraphs does, so I limited my sample size to one player: Vladimir Guerrero

In my opinion, he is the stereotype that fits the bill. He was an incredible baseball player. Everyone thought he was a wild swinger. His plate coverage reputation was Ruthian in scope. This video perfectly represents what we believe about Guerrero (and to a lesser extent Latino ballplayers):

It’s absurd, isn’t it?  In one sense, it shows his greatness. In other, it highlights the undisciplined stereotype. But was Guerrero really undisciplined?  The answer is a resounding NO.  Guerrero had a career .379 OBP. That’s better than renown American players like: Derek Jeter, Pete Rose, Willie McCovey, Paul Molitor, and Craig Biggio (to name a few). 

So like Michael Scott, Vladimir Guerrero shows that there may be some truths to reputations others have, it does not make them inferior. 

This is important to me as a “Mets Daddy.”  My grandfather had a saying, my father always repeated, which goes something like “every generation should do better than the one before.”  It’s why my grandfather was a construction worker, who insisted his son go to college. It’s why a DAV insisted his children go to graduate school. 

In my opinion, it means more than that. We also need to be smarter and more enlightened than the prior generation. Please note, this is not saying my father and grandfather were racists. They were far from it. Rather, this is merely an acknowledgement that each generation views race differently.

I think now we need to be open and honest as to what makes us different and unique. A child growing up in the Dominican Republic will have a different life and baseball experience than my son.  By extension, I want him to be open and honest enough that there are differences between different people. I want him to be able to realize that while Latino players hit their way off the island, it doesn’t mean there’s something inherently wrong with Latino players. 

I’m not going to be a phony and say I want his group of friends to resemble the United Nations. I’m saying I want him to have no issue or problem befriending anyone of any race or culture. I’d like for him to celebrate the similarities, like baseball, rather than treating people differently due to their different background. 

I acknowledge that starts with me. In a small way Fangraphs helped with that. So to that, I say, “thank you.”

This Is Wild

Hearing Curt Schilling talk about waking up the Mets’ fan base brought me back to 1993. It was a great time to be a baseball fan, except if you were a New York Mets fan. The Mets finished the season with a 59-103 record, good enough for seventh (last) place in the NL East. 

Seventh?  Yes, seventh. This was the last year of divisional baseball. It was known as the last great pennant race as the 104-58 Atlanta Braves won the NL West on the last day of the season over the 103-59 San Francisco Giants (who lost to the Dodgers on the last game of the season). Naturally, the Braves would go on and lose to the NLCS to the Phillies, while the Giants were playing golf. 

That’s right. The Giants didn’t make the playoffs. I remember hearing this on the radio. My Dad thought it was ridiculous the Giants missed the playoffs while the Phillies made the playoffs. Sure enough, my Dad and most baseball fans got their wish with the institution of the Wild Card in 1994. We don’t need to talk more about that season right now. 

If the current rules were in place, the Giants and Braves would’ve coasted to division titles. The Cardinals would’ve won the Central (what else is new?). The Phillies would’ve played the Wild Card Game against the Montreal Expos. It’s strange to think how different things wer back then. 

It also made me think about this year. The Mets are not in seventh; they’re in first. However, what if this season was played under the 1993 format?  Here’s what it would look like:

  1. Cardinals 67-38
  2. Pirates     61-43  
  3. Cubs         57-47
  4. Mets         56-50
  5. Expos       54-50
  6. Marlins     43-68
  7. Phillies      41-65

Wow!  This suddenly fun season would’ve been completely different. The Mets would’ve been seen as a .500 team with promising pitching. The Mets also would’ve been without Yoenis Cespedes. Why make the trade?  It would’ve had no impact on the Mets playoff chances. 

Instead, the Mets are ahead in sole possession of first place over the Nationals. If the Mets weren’t in first, they’d only be two games out of the second Wild Card. 

People ask all the time, “how do we get more young fans interested in baseball?”  The Wild Card and current divisional format allows for more excitement. I’m excited about baseball. By extension, my son is excited. There’s also interest in D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. 

This is good for baseball. This is good for Mets’ fans. I’m happy the Mets are in the middle of a pennant race rather than languishing in the middle of a .500 season. Also, we would’ve missed out on the 1999 and 2000 playoffs. Teams like the Pirates and Royals would still be without a playoff berth. 

Twelve years ago, there wasn’t much hope. Now because of the change in format, the Mets have hope. Lets Go Mets!