Juan Lagares
Judging from what I’ve read, the Mets seem most interested in adding a CF in free agency. However, what I mostly see is the Mets are interested in lefty bats:
My sense of the free agent CF types who are on the Mets’ radar at this point: Span, Fowler, Parra.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, and Dexter Fowler are everyday players. They’ve been everyday players for several years. They’re expected to receive 3+ year contracts for $8 – 13.8 million a year. There should be a reasonable market for these players meaning they’ll have an option to go where they want to go.
This means they won’t go to the Mets, at least not as a platoon player. Therefore, if any of these players comes to the Mets it will mean they have assurances that they’ll be the everyday CF. They should make them the everyday CF if the Mets are going to spend what’s necessary to bring them into the fold.
So if the Mets sign a CF, it means the Mets have moved on from Juan Lagares. I’m not sure it’s a wise move. Not just yet (even if I think Fowler gives them the best chance to win). He’s a year removed from a Gold Glove season. He’s got an elbow injury that just requires rest. Isn’t it the best case scenario for everyone that Lagares is the everyday CF. After partly losing a World Series due to defense, why downgrade the place where you’re best defensively?
So, while I’m hopeful the Mets will make improvements, I’m not sure it’ll be in CF. This means Lagares will receive one last chance to be an everyday player. I hope he rewards the Mets for their confidence in him. Otherwise, the Mets will bring someone else to do the job.
This will be a big year for both the Mets and Lagares. I’m hoping Lagares will be a part of the Mets plans.
Today was supposed to be the day I was able to put baseball aside for a little bit. Game 7 was supposed to be last night. However, I was reminded of the Mets blowing the World Series because:
Today is the day. Wake up and get your free A.M. Crunchwrap between 7-11 a.m. Rules: https://t.co/yyutdNEGEA pic.twitter.com/iNv9pDuaxY
— Taco Bell (@tacobell) November 5, 2015
The reason for the free AM crunch wraps? It’s because the Royals were able to steal a base during the World Series. The steal that got us free breakfast was Lorenzo Cain stealing second in the sixth inning of Game 1 of the World Series. He would score to bring the game to 3-2.
Overall, the Royals were 6/6 stealing bases off of Travis d’Arnaud in the World Series. This includes a whopping 4/4 in the deciding Game 5. It caused me to sarcastically text my Dad and brother during the game that when we say we wanted d’Arnaud to be like Mike Piazza this isn’t what we meant. Look, I know there are many elements to what causes stolen bases, but a catcher loses the benefit of the doubt when he can’t reach second base.
In any event, it’s hard to say the Mets lost the World Series because of d’Arnaud. There were so many different elements that it’s hard to point a finger at d’Arnaud. I also don’t think it’s a reason to move him out from behind the plate because he does everything else well.
He’s a terrific pitch framer, who makes sure his pitchers get that borderline strike call. As the stats suggest, his work behind the plate gets his pitcher not just the corner but a little off of it. Also, he’s a good hitter. His triple slash line this year was .268/.340/.485. To put that in perspective, another great Mets catcher, the late great Hall of Famer, Gary Carter, hit .262/.335/.439 for his career.
Is d’Arnaud as good as Piazza or Carter? No, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good catcher for the Mets. All he needs is a little health and to work on his throwing mechanics a bit. (Note: I’m not comparing him to Mackey Sasser. Not going to happen).
In any event, I had my AM crunch wrap courtesy of a stolen base in the World Series. A World Series the Mets should’ve won. Hopefully, I’ll have one next year because of a Juan Lagares‘ stolen base.
There’s no nice way to put it. Juan Lagares did not have a good 2015. He took a step back offensively and defensively. He basically forced the Mets to go out and get Yoenis Cespedes and play him out of position.
The Mets made it work in July and August. However, when you play with fire you eventually get burned, and the Mets got burned in the World Series. It showed the need to have an actual centerfielder in centerfield. On the flip side, Lagares started to play much better in the postseason, even if he wasn’t all the way back defensively.
The Mets now have two options. They can go with Lagares or they can go out and sign someone. The argument for Lagares is:
- He was injured and may be better with an offseason to heal;
- Even in a down year, he was an above average defensive centerfielder; and
- He will have more time to work with Kevin Long to get better at the plate.
The argument against Lagares was he regressed in every way possible. He had real platoon splits, and if you can’t hit righties, you can’t play everyday in the majors. Also, this is a championship contending team. You need to be ready to compete day one, especially when you’ve lost your two biggest trade chips on rental players.
The cheapest option, and possibly the best, is to carry Kirk Nieuwenhuis as your 4th outfielder. After an abysmal 2015, he will be cheap. He’s also an every other year player:
- 2012 – .252/.315/.376
- 2013 – .189/.278/.337
- 2014 – .259/.346/.482
- 2015 – .195/.270/.375
Sometimes things don’t make sense. That goes doubly for every other year players, but it seems to be a thing. If it continues, Nieuwenhuis is primed to be better in 2016, which would be good news.
For all his faults, Nieuwenhuis is a useful player. He can play all three OF positions. He’s got some pop in his bat and some speed. Looking over his UZR, he grades out as average at all three positions (making him a much better CF than Cespedes). That’s important because very few big league teams carry a legitimate CF on the bench.
It’s important because if Lagares can’t hit righties again, the Mets need to figure something out quickly. We saw the platoon work in 2015, and it should in 2016:
- Lagares vs. Lefties – .279/.325/.427
- Nieuwenhuis vs. Righties – .245/.314/.423
The numbers aren’t tremendous, but keep in mind this comes with good to great defense. It also comes with a presumably improving Lagares and the good year Nieuwenhuis. Also, this is going to presumably come from the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup.
If the Mets don’t like these numbers, they have a baseline for external options. Right now, here are the free agent centerfielders:
- Rajai Davis career .269/.316/.387 hitter with a 3.4 UZR last year
- Dexter Fowler career .267/.363/.418 hitter with a -1.7 UZR last year
- Austin Jackson career .272/.333/.399 with a 7.5 UZR last year
- Justin Maxwell career .220/.303/.399 with a -1.6 UZR last year
- Colby Rasmus career .245/.313/.443 hitter with a 2.1 UZR last year
- Shane Robinson career .237/.302/.313 hitter with a 0.9 UZR last year
- Denard Span career .287/.352/.395 with a -4.9 UZR last year
- Drew Stubbs career .244/.313/.395 with a -0.2 UZR last year
Looking over the list, the only players that could be an improvement are Fowler, Jackson, or Span. I’ll address them in reverse order.
Span is the best offensive player of the group and could leadoff. He is projected to receive a three year $36 million offer. It’s 50/50 if he’ll receive a qualifying offer. However, in a large outfield, it is not wise to go with a centerfielder with poor range. He’s a definite no if he gets a qualifying offer. You do not want the Nationals getting your first round pick.
Jackson is the best defensive player. He is projected to receive a three year $30 million contract, but he probably won’t receive a qualifying offer. However, isn’t he essentially an older, more expensive Lagares? I’m not sure this is the way to go.
That leaves Fowler. The benefit of Fowler is he’s a switch hitting leadoff hitter. He’s in the middle of his prime. He just played well for a playoff team, even if he did not have a good postseason. He will receive a qualifying offer, and he’s projected to get a 4 year $56 million contract.
There’s no doubt in my mind Fowler would improve this team. Realistically, the Mets should be able to get him and re-sign Daniel Murphy, who is projected to receive 4 year $48 million contract. To put it in perspective, Fowler and Murphy are worth a combined $26 million a year or just $4 million more than what Cespedes is slated to receive. If the Mets have money, this is the way to go.
However, my Fowler/Murphy choice presumes they can sign them and give arbitration raises to everyone. If Fowler or Murphy prevents you from signing one pitcher, you go with Lagares. I’d be comfortable going that way.
Ultimately, centerfield is one of the positions the Mets can improve easily in 2016. If the Mets can’t bring in Fowler, they’ll need it to come from Lagares.
A large part of what happened in the second half of the season was the Mets obtaining Yoenis Cespedes. I’m not in the camp that the Mets wouldn’t have won the division without him. However, I do believe it prevented a dog fight for the division.
While it was a wild ride, it came at a cost. A huge cost. I remember being vilified for suggesting the Mets would not sign him. Now, it seems like after an awful World Series, fans are on board with the sentiment. There seems to be a multitude of reasons why people do or do not want Cespedes to come back to the Mets. For what it’s worth, it appears he will not return.
I know its academic, but it’s the right decision. There’s no room for him on the roster. Michael Conforto will be the everyday leftfielder. Curtis Granderson has two more years on his contract to be the rightfielder. The Mets are set at the corner outfield positions. As for centerfield, Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder. I know he played there for the Mets, but it wasn’t a great decision. It was a decision to increase offense.
Looking over his career, Cespedes has poor range in centerfield. His UZR in centerfield this year was a -3.2, which equates to being a below average centerfielder. It just wasn’t those lazy World Series plays, it was the entire second half. By the way, this was the worst he’s been in three years in centerfield. His prior UZRs were -1.3 and -1.7. It’s the reason three teams didn’t see him as a centerfielder. People didn’t notice it as much because he was impossibly hot at the plate.
Look at it this way, everyone jumped all over Juan Lagares for having a down year defensively. His UZR was 3.5, which equates to him being an above average centerfielder. So to get this straight, Lagares was bad, and Cespedes was good? No, Cespedes hit, and Lagares didn’t.
I do think Cespedes will continue to hit for power. In his four year career, his 162 game average is .271/.319/.486 with 30 homers and 106 RBI. Whether or not he’s a poor on base percentage player, he will continue to mash. That still doesn’t make him a CF. It makes him a terrific left fielder. The Mets have one of those.
So we should all thank Cespedes for what he’s done for this team because he won’t be back. It was a wild ride, and I wish him the best at his next stop.
Honestly, I hate wasting my breath. I mostly write this blog late, late at night when everyone is in bed and I’m still up pondering what the heck did Terry Collins just do. However, this World Series has bothered me so much I’m not going to sleep anytime soon. One of the main reasons is Yoenis Cespedes.
Be honest. After seeing his play over the last four games, do you have more faith in him than Michael Conforto? Do you have more faith in him than Juan Lagares? You shouldn’t. Conforto and Lagares are playing better offensively and defensively. It’s mostly because they hustle. Cespedes hasn’t. In fact, Cespedes has been lazy out there at best, a quitter at worst.
As a fan, I have found his play in the World Series to be offensive. As you can tell from his .176/.167/.176 triple slash line, I don’t mean offensive to be his at bats. No, I mean his lack of hustle and his poor judgment on the field. He deserves to ride the bench. He won’t because Terry Collins doesn’t have the nerve to do it. I’m not even sure he’s upset with Cespedes’ play. That bothers me more.
I know he has a shoulder problem. The only thing that should effect is his at bats, which the stats suggests it might. It shouldn’t affect his legs, head, and or desire to win. Does his bum shoulder explain this play:
I know it’s painful, but look at that play again. He claimed he didn’t call for it, but he certainly looked like he was taking command of the play by his route. He said he lost the ball looking for Michael Conforto. Look it happens, but what happens next shouldn’t happen. The ball hits him on the leg, and he just stops. Stops! The only guy with an arm strong enough to maybe keep Escobar from scoring just gives up right then and there.
Another “favorite” play of mine was the Salvador Perez double last night. At the time, it was 2-0 in the fifth. Steven Matz was cruising. Rewatch what happened next:
That ball SHOULD’VE been caught. Admittedly, I thought differently last night, but I just re-watched the play. Cespedes’ top gear is a sight to behold. That was nowhere near it. As a result, he didn’t get there, and he kicked the ball again. To make matters worse, HE DIDN’T run after it. Where’s the hustle? The sense of urgency?
That brings me to his at bats. He’s struck out six times in the World Series. It’s going to happen. I’m not even upset that he keeps chasing and getting himself out with the pitches in the dirt. I’m upset because when he strikes out, he doesn’t bother to run to first. If it happens on July 20th in the third inning, I get it. It’s a long season you got to conserve energy to get through a 162 game season.
This is the World Series! You’ve got to give it your all. Cespedes clearly isn’t. The Royals are. The Royals are everything Cespedes isn’t. Am I blaming Cespedes? No. There are other problems. However, his lacksadasical play led to two outs becoming runs.
If he’s not going to give it his all, why is he out there? If Conforto and Lagares are playing better on both sides of the ball, why is he out there? The Mets are on the brink of losing the World Series. It’s a time for urgency. A time to run out the players who want it most. A time to run out the players who give you the best chance to win. That’s not Cespedes. At least not when he’s doing this on the base paths:
He needs to sit.
Tonight is Halloween, and we’re saying goodbye to the incredible month of Murphtober. If this game goes into the late evening hours, it will be the second time the World Series will go into November (it will anyway).
After Daniel Murphy dominated October, it’s time for a Met to take up the mantle for November. Here are some suggestions:
Curtis Granderson – Grandvember
David Wright – Davember
Daniel Murphy – Murphvember
Yoenis Cespedes – Yovember
Travis d’Arnaud – Travember
Wilmer Flores – Wilvember or Flovember
Juan Lagares & Juan Uribe – Juanvember
Matt Harvey – Harvember
As usual, I’m open to any suggestions you may have.
Lets Go Mets
Coming into the postseason, Juan Lagares was nothing more than a defensive replacement. In Game 1 of the NLDS, the Mets went with Michael Cuddyer over Lagares and Michael Conforto against Clayton Kershaw.
Cuddyer was so bad in the field that the Mets haven’t given him another start. The next three times an opponent started a lefty, the Mets would go with Lagares. This is in addition to his appearances as a defensive replacement. While Lagares has not played to his usual defensive standards this postseason, he’s shined offensively.
Lagares has a triple slash line of .368/.400/.474 with six runs, two doubles, and two stolen bases. In Game 1, he created a run by singling after an extended at bat, stealing a base, and scoring on an error by Eric Hosmer. Conversely, Conforto has struggled.
After homering in his first postseason at bat against Zack Greinke, he hasn’t hit. Literally. After that homerun, Conforto is 0-19 with a walk and six strikeouts. It looks like he’s having good at bats. He’s hit some balls hard, but the results aren’t there. Yes, he’s a much better hitter than Lagares. However, Lagares is hot, and he’s cold.
Normally, Lagares would sit against the Royals Game 3 starter, Yordano Ventura, because he’s righty. However, Terry Collins doesn’t seem inclined to sit Lagares:
Terry Collins indicates good chance of Juan Lagares in CF with Yoenis Cespedes in LF, but lineup not written yet.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) October 29, 2015
Here, I can’t fault Collins either way. On the one hand you go with the hot bat and better glove, even if he’s not producing as much defensively as you would like. On the other you have a good hitter who just can’t buy a hit, but you know he will be good to very good defensively.
In the end, I’d lean towards Conforto. It’s what you’ve done all year. Lagares has shown he can impact a game late by coming in for defense or by being a spark plug. Also, I like Conforto’s approach right now. He’s not getting hits, but he’s working the count and varying his deliveries.
Whatever the decision, the Mets will be fine. They’re both very capable players, who have a lot to offer a team. I’m confident either or both will have a big hit it defensive play b
Coming into this game, neither the Mets nor the Royals had won the first game in the World Series. Last night into this morning, they turned it into an art form.
This is now the longest Game 1 (innings-wise) in #WorldSeries history. #NYMvsKC
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 28, 2015
Ultimately, the game came down to Chris Young and Bartolo Colon. One was as tall as the other one was wide. While Young was mowing down the Mets, Colon was on a tightrope. He finally fell through allowing a sac fly in the 14th. The winning runner was on base after a Wright error and no challenge. The game was just sheer torture. Prior to this, there was an actual baseball game.
The game did not start the way Matt Harvey and the Mets wanted. Yoenis Cespedes misplayed a fly ball out into an Alcides Escobar inside the park homerun. The first in the World Series since a player named Mule Haas in the 1929 World Series.
This would kill most teams, but these Mets have shown themselves to be resilient. Travis d’Arnaud singled in Daniel Murphy in the fourth. Curtis Granderson homered in the fifth. Conforto hit a sac fly scoring Cespedes in the sixth.
Harvey was good tonight. Not great. Not bad. Just good. He pitched six innings allowing five hits, three earned, two walks, and two strikeouts. He was handed a two run lead in the sixth and couldn’t hold it.
After one run scored, he had a chance to get out of it with Mike Moustakas at the plate. Harvey stuck with the offspeed pitches and was seemingly pitching around him to get to Salvador Perez with first base open. A changeup caught too much of the plate, and Moustakas got the RBI single an inning after he made a diving stop to prevent a possible RBI double. From the seventh inning on, it was a battle of the bullpens.
Remember, the biggest advantage the Royals had this series was the bullpen and team defense. Kelvin Herrera was lighting up the radar gun. He had two outs in the eight when Juan Lagares came to the plate. He was in the game as a defensive replacement for Michael Conforto. Mets fans collectively groaned.
Lagares had a terrific at bat fighting off everything Herrera had. He got a single. He then barely stole second, and then this happened:
Actually, no, but it was close.
Wilmer Flores hit a chopper towards Eric Hosmer, who tried to backhand it. It went through him, and the Mets grabbed a 4-3 lead. In a shock to everyone, Jeurys Familia blew the save on a Alex Gordon to homer in the ninth. It was a rare blown save:
Jeurys Familia had converted 21 straight save chances entering day
Last one came day before Mets trade for Cespedes (July 30 vs Padres)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 28, 2015
Jon Niese came on to pitch in the game he was born to pitch in. Niese was born the day the Mets won the World Series. Well, he pitched like he was born for the moment. He went three innings holding the Royals at bay.
As we know it wasn’t enough. After watching it part of me wishes the TV stayed off.
However, the Mets hung in there. They’re resilient, and they have Jacob deGrom tonight. All they need is a split. It’s still on the table. I just hope Collins is better. The Mets generally need to be better.
They will. They just need to show the same resiliency they’ve shown in this game and all year.
He’s worked hard to get to this point, and the Mets have rewarded the work by adding Juan Uribe to the World Series roster:
Juan Uribe is on the #Mets World Series roster. Matt Reynolds is off.
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) October 27, 2015
The Case for Uribe
This team turned around with the Uribe trade. He’s been on World Series winners in 2005 and 2010. You’re hoping for a little five year luck there.
Unlike most teams, the Royals have two lefties in the pen with Danny Duffy and Franklin Morales. Adding Uribe gives the Mets an extra right handed bat off the bench. After Michael Cuddyer the Mets can turn to Uribe. This allows Juan Lagares to be a defensive replacement, and Kevin Plawecki to be ready for a Travis d’Arnaud injury. Don’t worry I tapped on every piece of wood within the nearest square mile after typing that.
Additionally, it lengthens the bench. In a way, it’s amazing the Mets playing with a 24 man roster never caught up with them. In actuality, there was no way Matt Reynolds was going to play. At least now, the Mets don’t have a dead roster spot.
I have to say it’s a pretty convincing case. I still don’t like the move.
The Case Against Uribe
The last time the Mets thought Uribe could go, he exacerbated his chest injury. If that happens in the World Series, the Mets will be burning through 3-4 players in one at bat (original player, Uribe, new batter, defensive replacement). If this happens in Citi Field, this team is in real trouble.
The next reason is your backup SS is now Kelly Johnson. He’s only played one game at SS, and that was this year. He’s the DH in Game One. If anything happens to Wilmer Flores, the Mets have a terrible choice to make. Do you lose the DH? Do you move David Wright and his back there? Do you put Uribe there? Or my personal favorite:
Is everyone forgetting they can put Jacob deGrom at SS in a pinch?
— Joe DeMayo (@PSLToFlushing) October 27, 2015
Yes, the Mets can put Reynolds on the roster for the injured player, but that’s only AFTER the game. If anything happens to Flores, you’re playing a game without a SS [insert Flores isn’t a SS jokes here]. How quickly the Mets have forgotten that Flores almost had to leave Game 4 of the NLCS after hitting his head.
Furthermore, you’re risking a lot for someone who’s not a terrific hitter. In his playoff career, he has hit .204/.241/.338. As a Met, he has hit .219/.301/.430. As a pinch hitter this year, he has hit .190/.320/.333. He’s 0-4 this year as a DH. It’s just too much to risk for someone that really only plays third and just doesn’t hit the way you think he does.
Yes, he can change a game and a series with one swing of the bat. It still doesn’t change the fact that this move is extremely risky. I hope he does not only because he’s a Mets fan, but also he’s a big part of this team.
The Royals named Edison Volquez as their Game One starter. The Volquez-Johnny Cueto decision wasn’t like what the Mets faced before in the playoffs. However, it merited consideration, and the Royals went with Volquez.
This year Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.308 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. That’s where the good ends for Volquez. In his career, he is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s been slightly better this postseason going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.1 K/9. In the end, what matters most is how he’s pitched against the Mets:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB and 2 K
Combined 18-99 (.182 BA), 12 BB (.270 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.253 slugging), 11 RBI, and 22 K
Here’s how the bench has fared against Volquez:
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kelly Johnson 4-14 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-0
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench 6-23 (.263) with 3 BB (.346 OBP), 2 double (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, 1 K
In essence, Volquez had pitched well against the Mets. However, the Mets players have gotten to him. When the Mets have made contact, they’ve hit homeruns. It’ll be tough to hit homers in a stadium like Kauffman.
Fortunately, the Mets have better pitching than the Royals. If the Mets pitch how they should, they will need just one of those blasts to win the game, similar to the NLDS.