David Wright
With every team seemingly interested in Ben Zobrist, it appears the almost 35 year old is going to get a four year deal. Good for him.
The good news is that the Mets have no interest in giving him a four year deal. It’s the prudent move especially when you consider he’s in the midst of a four year decline. Based upon Adam Rubin’s article, the Mets may now turn to either Daniel Murphy or Asdrubal Cabrera to play second and occasionally spell David Wright at third base. I’ve written enough about Murphy, but it’s the first time I’ve seen the Mets linked to Cabrera.
For starters, Cabrera is not the hitter Zobrist or Murphy is. Last year, Cabrera hit .265/.315/.430 with 15 homeruns and 58 RBIs. For his career, he’s a .267/.329/.412 hitter, who averages 15 homeruns and 75 RBIs a year. He’s been good for an OPS+ of 104 meaning he’s a league average hitter. Overall, his career averages are skewed by his career year in 2011 when he hit .273/.332/.460 with 25 homeruns and 92 RBIs. This was also before his getting busted for steroids.
As we’ve seen with the Mets, the steroids issue won’t preclude them from signing Cabrera. Assuming it’s behind him, his .265/.315/.430 batting line would be an upgrade over an internal option like Wilmer Flores and his .263/.295/.408 batting line with an OPS+ of 95.
That’s where Cabrera becomes a little more interesting. Over the course of his career, he’s been a SS. However, he’s been a bad one. His UZR last year at short was -6.0, which was his best defensive year in five years. Over his career, he’s averaged a -6.2 UZR. Plain and simple, he’s a bad SS. In fact, he’s worse than Flores. At second and third, he’s had limited time, but he’s shown to be nothing more than average.
Ultimately, the prudence of signing Cabrera comes down to the contract. On a one year deal, he makes a lot of sense. As a replacement for Murphy’s bat, the signing doesn’t make sense no matter how good the terms of the deal are. Given the state of the free agent market, I’m not sure it’s wise to go after Cabrera and a centerfielder. As suggested by Ken Davidoff, the Mets will turn to center if they can’t sign Zobrist.
At this point, the best move might just be signing their young pitchers to extensions. The free agent market is poor, and the pitching is the Mets path to success. With that said, the Mets better kick them up.
At this point, I don’t know if any fan can honestly tell you what the Mets will do this offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make no major additions. If they don’t, the Mets should still be favorites to repeat as NL East Champions. The main reason is an already weak NL East keeps getting worse.
The Braves major offseason addition was to re-sign A.J. Pierzynski. Other than that, they traded away their young SS Andrelton Simmons. They’re threatening to do the same with Freddie Freeman.
The Phillies have made no major moves, and do not appear to be doing so. Sure, they may have cleaned up the front office, but that will not have any impact upon their 2016 season.
The Marlins brought in a very average manager in Don Mattingly, and then immediately threatened to get rid of anyone if any value. Whether it’s Jose Fernandez and his hoodies or Marcel Ozuna and his accumulation of service time, the they’re looking to get rid of anyone not named Giancarlo Stanton or Ichiro Suzuki.
Then there are the Nationals, who just lost Jordan Zimmermann in free agency. I’m not sure how they replace him with their payroll issues. Essentially, they’re relying on Anthony Rendon being healthy, and the switch from Matt Williams to Dusty Baker vastly improving a team losing its CF and SS. It’s possible they will be better, but that’s a lot to ask considering Bryce Harper was the MVP, and Max Scherzer had a Cy Young caliber season.
The Mets have holes, but they return a young rotation poised to be deeper and better. They’ll presumably have a full year of Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Conforto, and David Wright. At the end of the day, it just might be enough offense to offset the losses of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy. Ultimately, it may not matter with the NL East regressing.
The Mets need to just play to their potential to repeat in the NL East for the first time in their history.
In case you missed it, the Mets are having a Bobblehead giveaway. You just need to re-tweet the Tweet and vote for the player you want:
RT to enter to win a bobblehead of the player that wins the poll below! #Mets #PickAPrize https://t.co/0K3M6ip6Bt
— New York Mets (@Mets) November 23, 2015
David Wright is crushing Tom Seaver with 65% of the vote. Seriously? I know it’s a popularity contest, but there is no way you should want a bobblehead of Wright over Seaver. Seaver is the greatest Met ever. He just might be the greatest right hand pitcher of all time. There should not be any Met more popular than him.
Frankly, the result of this poll is embarrassing to Mets fans. It shows we can’t respect what little history we have. It’s a shame.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
After we found out Daniel Murphy rejected the qualifying offer, there were many people saying good bye to Murphy. Others celebrated his departure. These were all premeditated even if Murphy’s return is unlikely:
For those wondering, was told contract extension talks with Murphy never became serious. Again, all signs point to him going elsewhere.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) November 14, 2015
Yes, it’s likely Murphy leaves, but it’s not definitive. Murphy could still sign with the Mets. This is one of many misconceptions out there:
Mets Are Better Without Murphy
I really don’t understand this one. I’m well aware of his faults. He’s not a good baserunner. He’s not good defensively at second. He doesn’t walk a lot, and he doesn’t have a lot of power.
Well he is a second baseman, and he is one of the top hitters at that position. He hit .281/.322/.449 last year. Amongst second basemen:
- Batting average ranked ninth in the majors and fourth in the NL.
- OBP ranked twelfth in the majors and fifth in the NL. He was
- Slugging ranked fourth in the majors and first in the NL.
He had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. He’s making more and better contact. He’s clutch. Very clutch! Losing Murphy would be a big blow to the 2016 Mets, and that’s before you take into account if Dilson Herrera is ready or if David Wright can play everyday over 162 games.
The Money Can Be Better Allocated
This one is just wrong. With Murphy presumably gone, the Mets at least have issues to address in the middle infield. Some believe the Mets need another CF. Others want to get some more relievers. There’s also a group that wants to get an insurance option for Wright at third.
That’s a lot to add, especially for a team that only has about $18 million in their budget to resolve all of these problems. If you re-sign Murphy, you have at least address second base and the Wright insurance plan. With Murphy pegged to receive around $12 million annually, there is sufficient funds to add another reliever and/or a backup CF.
The only other free agent who can check these boxes is Ben Zobrist, who is a mistake signing waiting to happen. He’s 35 and in the midst of a three year decline. Last year, he was actually WORSE than Murphy defensively. I can’t believe the Mets will walk down this path again after signing a 35 year old Michael Cuddyer last year.
The Mets Have Better Internal Options
This is just ponderous. If you go the Wilmer Flores route, you’ve eliminated the Mets best possible shortstop option. Also, if you’re beating up Murphy for low OBP and the like, here’s Flores’ stats from last year: .263/.295/.408. He’s right handed and not even in the same league as Murphy as a hitter.
The other option is Dilson Herrera, who I think has a promising future. However, he’s still only 21. In limited major league duty over the past two years, he’s hit .215/.308/.383. Are we really confident he’s going to be handle the job next year? He will eventually, but this is a team that was just in the World Series. You should go with players who you know you can trust, not ones you hope can.
He’s a Net Negative
This is actually an oldie, but it is a good place for summation. Overall, for all of Murphy’s faults, he’s been a good guy that has performed well in New York. He was bounced all over the place, and he never complained. That’s important to have on any team, especially when it comes from a veteran.
More importantly, we should look at how he responded to the comment. He went on a homerun tear in the playoffs like we’ve never seen. Most people wilt under the bright lights of New York. He rose to the occasion.
Can you win a World Series with Murphy being the best player on your team? Probably not. However, as he showed this postseason, you’re probably not getting to the World Series without at least one Murphy in your team. Whoever signs Murphy is going to get a very good baseball player. A player who is versatile, hits well, and does not complain.
Until such a time as Murphy signs with another team, I’m not writing an obituary on his Mets career. I’m not saying good-bye yet. Instead, I’m holding out hope the Mets can push the misconceptions aside and re-sign Murphy.
Today is the deadline for Daniel Murphy to accept or reject the $15.8 million qualifying offer. While I anticipate he will reject it, the possibility remains that he could accept it:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/665195238332452864
Sooner or later, the Mets will have to give the second base job to Dilson Herrera. He’s got the potential to be an All Star one day. He hit .327/.387/.511 in AAA this year. He might not have been ready when he was called up this year, but he’s only 21 years old. He may need another year to be ready. Another year of Murphy helps that.
This will be David Wright‘s first full season after his spinal stenosis diagnosis. We will find out how much he can play. If he’s limited in how much he can play, Murphy has shown he’s more than capable of playing at third for a stretch. It’s possible the Mets could let Wright go on the DL to rest permitting Murphy to play third and get Herrera comes time at second to see if he’s ready. Having Murphy around another year is a nice insurance policy.
It would also give Murphy more time to work with Kevin Long. I’m not expecting Murphy to repeat Murphtober, but it should be noted he had the most homeruns he’s ever had. He did this while hitting 38 doubles, the second highest he’s ever had. It was the highest slugging percentage he’s ever had over a full year. Another year with the Mets should let us know if it was a career year or something else.
I can understand not wanting Murphy on a multi-year deal. He’s still not good defensively at second. You might be paying him for postseason performance rather than what he has been his whole career. However, on a one year deal? It makes too much sense.
I’m not worried about it “ruining” the Mets offseason plans. The bullpen is in good shape. The rotation should be better with a full year of Steven Matz, no Bartolo Colon, and Zack Wheeler scheduled to return. The shortstop options out there aren’t better than Wilmer Flores. The CF market is full of players who shouldn’t play in center. Therefore, Juan Lagares is probably their best option. So with that said, how does Murphy “ruin” their offseason?
It doesn’t. Murphy taking the qualifying offer is the Mets best case scenario. As Sandy Alderson stated himself, you only make the offer if you want the player back. Well, the offer was made. Hopefully, Murphy comes back for 2016.
Unsurprisingly, the Mets have interest in both Darren O’Day and Joakim Soria. If you’re looking for an elite setup guy, you’re going to be interested in both players.
Soria is now three years removed from Tommy John surgery. In the four seasons prior to the one he was injured, Soria was an elite closer recording 132 saves with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.988 WHIP. He got injured, and he became a different player. Still a good closer/reliever, but not an elite closer.
After coming back from surgery, he went to Texas where he recorded 17 saves with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP in two years. He then signed with the Tigers, who seem desperate for relief help every year (sound familiar?). In two years, he recorded 24 saves with a 3.29 ERA and s 1.115 WHIP. When he was traded to the Pirates, he was terrific in the bullpen because he’s a good pitcher and everyone is terrific in the Pirates bullpen. In 29 games he had a 2.03 ERA with a 1.163 WHIP.
With the Mets seeking an eighth inning reliever, Soria would be an upgrade over Addison Reed, who has a career 4.01 ERA and a 1.261 career WHIP. Soria is a huge upgrade. Soria is expected to receive a 2 year $14 million contract or $7 million per season. Reed is slated to receive $5.7 million in arbitration. Soria would be worth the $1.3 million increase.
O’Day appears like he will command a 3 year $21 million contract or $7 million per year. While I think the $7 million per year on both O’Day and Soria are fair estimates, the increased interest may bump those numbers up to around $8 million per season.
Right now, the Mets projected payroll is around $92 million with about $18 million left in the budget. Would it be wise to blow almost all of it on relievers? I think so. The current free agent market lacks the elite second base, shortstop, or center fielders who would improve the Mets offense. The Mets don’t seem inclined to bring back Daniel Murphy.
The best solution might be to create an absolute shut down pitching staff. Going from the Mets elite starters to O’Day-Soria-Jeurys Familia will hold up any lead the Mets can muster. Also, keep in mind, the Mets will have full years from David Wright, Michael Conforto, and Travis d’Arnaud, which should offset the losses of Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes.
The Mets best approach to this offseason might be to create a shutdown bullpen to match their starting pitching. Bring on both O’Day and Soria.
Mark Simon had a thought provoking article about moving David Wright off of third base.
His reasoning was sound. Wright’s defense has taken a noticeable step back. It played a part in costing the Mets two World Series games. While his throwing was never a string point, it’s gotten worse, and he throws more side armed now. Whether it’s his age or the stenosis, there may be a point in time when the Mets may have to move him off of third.
I just don’t think first base is the best option. Spinal stenosis is exacerbated by the typical twisting and turning actions you see on a baseball field. The stretching and turning at first would only exacerbate Wright’s stenosis. It may limit him further. I don’t think first is an option.
I’ve seen people suggest second. There’s no way I put him in the middle infield. Just remember what happened with Ruben Tejada. As a second baseman, Wright will have his back turned on many double play chances. I can’t put him in that position especially since he’s got limited mobility with his back.
There’s no good option in the infield. It’s why you might look to moving him into the outfield. Wright still has some speed and athleticism to cover the ground. He has shown the ability to track fly balls well, even if it has been at third base. His arm might be a liability in left, but it may be at third as well.
The Mets have a spot coming up in the outfield within the next few years. Curtis Granderson has two years left on his deal, and as good as he’s been, I can’t see the Mets re-signing him at 36 years old. From what we’ve seen so far from Michael Conforto, he should be able to handle RF. We don’t know what Brandon Nimmo or any other prospect will be.
We do know Wright will be around for another five years. Maybe he can stay at third. Whatever the case may be, the Mets should explore the possibilities.
I’m sure I’m not breaking any new ground when I say the Mets are not going to re-sign Daniel Murphy. However, it wasn’t until I read the tea leaves that I lost hope.
Look who the Mets have interest in signing as free agents:
My sense of the free agent CF types who are on the Mets’ radar at this point: Span, Fowler, Parra.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
They’re going after two left-handed and one switch hitting CF. Sure, it’s an indictment on how the Mets feel about Juan Lagares because you can’t expect these players to all of a sudden sign on to become a platoon player. It’s also a sign the Mets are not re-signing Murphy.
When and if the Mets lose Murphy, they’re losing a left-handed second baseman and presumably replacing him with one of two right-handed bats: Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores. This will make the Mets lineup right handed dominant with only three lefty hitters. This takes away the L-R-L switching in the lineup that Terry Collibs likes to do.
To keep the L-R-L in place the simple solution would be to keep Murphy. He’s seeking comparable money to the free agent CF. He’s insurance against David Wright breaking down, Lucas Duda slumping, Herrera not being ready, and/or Ruben Tejada being physically ready and able to play shortstop.
No, the Mets have announced they want to go with a left-handed CF. That’s how they’ll keep the L-R-L in the lineup. Things could change, but I doubt it. It’s a shame because Murphy was a good Met and the CF options aren’t that great.
So I will begin to make my piece with Murphy going to another team. I wish him the best.
Last year, Michael Cuddyer was signed by the Mets to be that missing offensive piece. The Mets were so confident he would help them they were willing to forfeit their first round pick. It turns out they were wrong.
Cuddyer had the worst year of his career. He’s a career .277/.344/.461 hitter mostly playing in hitter’s parks like the Metrodome and Coors Field. Last year, he only hit .259/.309/.391. What was the reason for the decline? It could’ve been the switch to Citi Field. It could’ve been free agents the Mets sign always have a poor first year (see Beltran, Carlos and Granderson, Curtis). It could’ve been his turning 36. It could’ve been the injuries.
Cuddyer had a knee injury that compromised him for much of the year. He required surgery on his core. Either one of these injuries could reasonably explain the down year. At the very least, we can expect a healthier Cuddyer in 2016. With him being a bench player now, we can also expect a fresher Cuddyer too.
Mostly, you can expect Cuddyer to take some at bats against tough lefties with Granderson, Lucas Duda, and Michael Conforto. For his career, Cuddyer has hit .290/.377/.494. Even in a down year last year, he hit .273/.357/.343. These are good numbers against lefties. He’s important because the Mets best hitters are all lefties. This will help curb the effects of the Mets facing a tough lefty during the regular season.
Cuddyer’s other duties will include pinch hitting. For his career, Cuddyer has hit .355/.431/.548 in 72 pinch hitting attempts. Considering Cuddyer will be the team’s presumed top pinch hitter, these numbers are encouraging. Even more encouraging was his numbers as a pinch hitter last year. In 22 plate appearances, Cuddyer hit .316/.364/.316. Even in a down year, Cuddyer had good at bats as a pinch hitter.
Lastly, the Mets have a David Wright problem. Wright showed last year, he can still be an effective player. However, he can still only play only four days in a row. With Daniel Murphy, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson being free agents, the Mets don’t have a definitive answer for Wright’s days off. Cuddyer has played some third in his career, but not with any regularity since 2005.
However, Cuddyer is now a bench player. He has to be ready to pinch hit and play multiple positions. If Cuddyer is even a hint of the player he once was, the Mets will have a strong bench in 2016. They will have an insurance policy for first, third, left, and right. Signing Cuddyer may have been a mistake, but it doesn’t mean he won’t be a useful player.
He’s going to have to play a big role in 2016, even if it’s a role neither he nor the Mets thought he would play.