David Wright
There are many out there calling the Mets offseason a success so far. Personally, I don’t see it. Yes, I know the offseason isn’t over, but we’re also pretty sure the Mets aren’t replacing Yoenis Cespedes‘ bat.
Overall, the Mets as constituted now are not better than the team that lost the World Series. Here was the lineup for the team that just lost the World Series, with their respective WAR from the 2015 season:
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- David Wright 0.5
- Daniel Murphy 1.4
- Yoenis Cespedes 6.3
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
Combined 20.9
If the Mets make no other additions this offseason, which still remains a possibility, here’s the Mets 2016 starting lineup with the player’s WAR from last year.
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- Neil Walker 2.4
- David Wright 0.5
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Asdrubal Cabrera 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 17.1
On paper, barring any further additions the 2016 starting lineup is worse than the 2015 World Series team. This is despite how more “athletic” the Mets are in the middle infield. In response, the argument is the Mets are now deeper. Are they? Let’s compare the 2015 and 2016 benches.
Before comparing, it should be noted I’m going to use a traditional 13 position players and 12 pitchers split. That means I will have to eliminate once bench player from the 2015 Mets. I’m choosing to remove Kirk Nieuwenhuis from the roster as he was called up in September.
I’m also dropping Juan Uribe from the 2015 roster. When building a team, you’re going to want a backup shortstop. Uribe doesn’t fit the bill. Since Ruben Tejada was injured, and thus unavailable, I’m replacing him with Matt Reynolds, whom I’m assigning a 0.0 WAR since he didn’t play at all last year.
Here’s the modified 2015 World Series bench:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Matt Reynolds 0.0
- Michael Cuddyer 0.5
- Kelly Johnson 0.3
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 2.3
Here’s the current bench, which would be subject to change with a free agent signing:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
- Ruben Tejada -0.1
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.7
- Eric Campbell -0.5
Combined 1.8
Now to be fair, the 2016 bench will mostly likely not have Eric Campbell on the Opening Day roster. Eliminating his -0.5 would balance out these benches.
Here’s one big problem, if not Campbell then who? Let’s assume Mets fans get their way, and the team signs Denard Span. Span had a 0.7 WAR last year. Yes, that’s the same as Kirk’s. Slotting Span into the everyday lineup has this effect:
- Starting Lineup WAR increased from 17.1 to 17.2
- Bench WAR decreased from 1.8 to 1.7
- Eric Campbell or Kirk Nieuwenhuis is still on the Opening Day roster
Now, first counter-argument will be the offseason isn’t over, so the Mets can still make additional moves. Currently, without any other moves, the Mets payroll stands around $105.7 million. Let’s assume for arguments sake, the Mets have around $10 million to spend. With that $10 million, the Mets are looking to add a reliever, a CF, and another bat.
Span is estimated to receive about $12 million a year. Well, that blows the whole budget. Even assuming the Mets could get Span for less, they’re not going to have enough money for a reliever and another bat after that. So again, chances are either Campbell or Kirk will be in the Opening Day roster.
The next counter-argument is last year’s WAR doesn’t account for full years from Wright, d’Arnaud, or Conforto. This point-of-view is acceptable. However, you also have to acknowledge Granderson may be due for a regression at 35 years of age with a repaired torn ligament in this thumb. Also, based upon their histories, you can’t rely on Wright or d’Arnaud to last a full season. Essentially, while you can expect some players to improve or play more often, you can expect others to regress and/or suffer injuries.
Overall, the Mets still might be able to win the NL East and return to the playoffs in 2016. They will do so because of their pitching. However, objectively speaking, you have to admit the 2016 Mets are and will be weaker than the 2015 Mets team that lost the World Series.
That is unacceptable.
I remember when my wife and I were doing the baby registry, I began having a bit of nostalgia. Apparently, things like the Teenager Mutant Ninja Turtles were popular again. He-Man? Not so much. One show that apparently disappeared from our collective consciousness is Inspector Gadget. I guess Matthew Broderick ruined it for everyone.
In any event for those too young, too old, or somewhere else when I was growing up, Inspector Gadget was a cyborg. Not a Terminator mind you. He was more of a Ray type of cyborg in that he still maintained his human form. Now, he was a cyborg police officer not nearly as effective as Robocop. No, Inspector Gadget was quite the opposite.
Inspector Gadget could summon a helicopter from his head by saying, “Go, go, gadget helicopter.” When the helicopter would actually appear, he’d usually fly into the side of a building or something. Yet, he always got the job done. The reason is his niece, Penny, and her dog, Brain, would solve the crime, and Inspector Gadget’s faults would be covered up. It didn’t matter. Good guys win, bad guys lose. All is right in the world.
I feel that way now about Wilmer Flores. He’s a nice guy with some talent who was able to be the shortstop on an NL Pennant winning team. Suffice it to say, the Mets didn’t win because he excelled at shortstop. In fact, he had to be removed from the position. Seeing how he’s not a SS, or maybe even an everyday player, the Mets obtained two switch hitting middle infielders, who are better from the left side of the plate.
In essence, Flores is now a utility player. He’s not particularly good (or bad) at either middle infield position. With David Wright‘s back, he’ll need to play some third. With Michael Cuddyer’s retirement, he may also need to learn to play first and outfield. Basically, he may have to cover every position except pitcher, catcher, and center.
Essentially, Terry Collins will start a game with, “Go, go, Wilmer shortstop.” The Mets then hope the team manages his missteps and can win the game. During a game, Terry can select, “Go, go, Wilmer pinch hit” and we’ll hope for a big basehit. Overall, we’re hoping Flores doesn’t stand in the way while at the same time hoping he’ll succeed because deep down, we all love Wilmer Flores. Again, he really is the New Murphy.
Ultimately though, I like to think of him as Inspector Gadget. He’s the love able guy that brings out the best in everyone. He’s the guy that is all over the place while everyone else works to help defeat the bad guys. It mostly worked in 2015. I’m curious to see how it’ll work in 2016.
Go, go, New York Mets.
Once Michael Cuddyer‘s retirement was confirmed, seemingly everyone sought out the best way to spend his $12.5 million forfeited salary. The prevailing thought was that the Mets should re-sign Yoenis Cespedes. I do admit for a time being the Mets could’ve better spent their money.
These are interesting and worthwhile discussions, but they also neglect the void Cuddyer leaves behind. I know he was slated to make a lot of money. Money, frankly, that could be better spent elsewhere. Put that aside for a second. That money was already budgeted. Instead, let’s focus on the role Cuddyer was going to play:
- Veteran presence in the clubhouse;
- Solid pinch hitter; and
- Right handed bat against tough lefties.
At a minimum, you knew you could slate him in to give Lucas Duda an occasional day off while having a credible bat and glove at first base. He could take some at bats from Curtis Granderson against lefties. Remember, Granderson has definitive platoon splits, and he will be 35 years old next year. He can also ease the transition of Michael Conforto into his role as an everyday player.
Now, many people will naturally call for Juan Uribe to take his place. It seems like a fit. Uribe was a great addition to the clubhouse, and can spell David Wright at third on occasion. Last year, Uribe was uncomfortable playing first, but he may have more aptitude after having an offseason to prepare for the role. He will also cost much less than $12.5 million.
However, Uribe is not the player Cuddyer is or was. Cuddyer is a career .277/.344/.461 hitter. Last year, Cuddyer hit .259/.309/.391. As a pinch hitter, Cuddyer hits .355/.431/.548. Conversely, Uribe is a career .256/.303/.421 hitter. Last year, he hit .219/.301/.430 with the Mets and .253/.320/.417 overall. As a pinch hitter, Uribe has hit .281/.363/.461.
For the money, sure, you’d probably rather have Uribe. However, that first implies the Mets will reallocate the money (not a given). Second, it ignores the fact that Cuddyer also plays the outfield, which Uribe doesn’t. Lastly, Uribe would be redundant as he would just be signing on to play Wilmer Flores‘ role.
No, to fully replace Cuddyer the Mets need a right handed 1B/OF who can serve as a mentor to the players on the team. Looking at the free agent market that player doesn’t exist. Therefore, finding a replacement for Cuddyer will be next to impossible. The Mets are not a better team after his retirement.
I suppose the biggest testament to the type of player and Cuddyer is is noting that the 2016 Mets are worse off for his retirement.
Frankly, I’m stunned Michael Cuddyer retired. There were 12.5 million reasons not to retire. However, I suppose he knew it was his time to retire. I guess we shouldn’t be surprised a team first guy like him didn’t just go out there to go through the motions.
You see while there are many different ways you to describe Cuddyer’s tenure with the Mets, on a. day like today, the one that resonates with me is Class Act. He was a one from his first moment with the Mets until his very last.
It’s easy to envision it now, but Cuddyer came to the Mets to “win the NL East and hopefully do some damage in the postseason as well.” At times during the season, this seemed impossible. As Mets were dropping like flies, he fought through a knee injury to be one of the few credible major league hitters in what was at times a AAA lineup. During this time, he would have an impact helping the Mets stay afloat including a game winning hit a game winning hit when the Mets season seemed its bleakest:
He played until he could play no more. This led to his eventual replacement, Michael Conforto, getting called up. Cuddyer was replaced. He responded like the class act he was. He became a mentor to Conforto. He was helping the player who was forcing him to the bench. It probably was a factor in Conforto’s meteoric rise. Cuddyer was content to help in the clubhouse and on the field as much as he could.
Unfortunately, Cuddyer had a rough postseason. His last ever game was Game One of the World Series when he struck out in all three of his at bats. He deserved to go out better. During the postseason it was easy to forget Cuddyer was a lifetime .277/.344/.461 hitter with 197 homers and 794 RBI. In his career, he averaged 21 homers and 84 RBIs a year. He was a two time All Star with a Homerun Derby appearance, a batting title, and a Silver Slugger.
He will forever be linked with the Twins. However, it was with the Mets he won a pennant and played in the World Series. While his play with the Mets wasn’t up to his usual standard, he was still the high quality character he always was. In many ways, I thought a healthy and rested Cuddyer could’ve helped the Mets next year.
Maybe there still is a way for him to do that. With Bob Geren going to Los Angeles, there’s a spot on the coaching staff. Considering his positive impact on the Mets young players, he just might be a good fit. Besides, he came here to wear the same uniform as his friend David Wright and win a World Series. In that sense, there is a bit of unfinished business.
Whether Cuddyer returns or not, the Mets players and organization were better for having him on the team. I wish him luck in whatever his next move will be. I appreciate all that he did with the Mets even if much of it was things we could not see.
Congratulations on a terrific career Michael Cuddyer!
I am reminded of being in the seventh grade. I grew a lot, especially my feet. It must’ve been beyond annoying and expensive for my parents. My mother always insisted on good footwear. My father on the other hand always looked for a deal.
We went to Fayva Shoes (remember that place?). There was some insane sale where if you purchased one shoe, you got the next one half off. The strange thing about this sale was if you got a third it was half-off the half-off price (for example, a $20 sneaker cost $5). Basically, every sneaker after the first one followed this computation.
Anyway, my father made me pick out a shoe that I liked (or hated least). He then literally purchased that sneaker in every half size up to a size 13. His theory was he’d never have to buy me another sneaker again. Plus, he got me a sneaker that cost $0.30. Not an exaggeration. Side note to this story is his plan never would’ve worked as my feet are about a size 14.
Guess how well this worked out? C’mon, we were able to purchase a sneaker for $0.30. They were flimsy sneakers. I was playing football, juked, rolled my ankle, and broke my foot. We may have had a sneaker that cost $0.30, but now there was also medical bills. It was penny wise, pound foolish.
The Neil Walker trade is the Mets $0.30 pair of sneakers. We can reasonably argue over whether Walker or Daniel Murphy is the better player. You want to tell me it’s Walker, fine. However, as a result of obtaining Walker for Niese, the Mets now have to look to acquire a fifth starter. By the way, you’re looking for a fifth starter who will agree to only pitch for half the year because at that point Zack Wheeler will return. Good luck with that.
I know Murphy is a free agent, but Ben Zobrist‘s deal was for an average annual value of $14 million a year. Murphy will probably get $2 million less a year than Zobrist. Yes, it would probably be $2 million more than Walker will receive in arbitration. However, Murphy can serve as insurance for David Wright‘s back, whereas Walker can’t.
Sure, the Mets did sign Asdrubal Cabrera. Whether you like the move or not, we should all be able to agree $12 million to Murphy and $9 million to Niese shouldn’t have precluded that signing especially since the Mets aren’t pursuing Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes. Instead, the Mets need to convince a starting pitcher to start for only half a year and an everyday player to accept being in a centerfield platoon with Juan Lagares.
This is ultimately why the Walker deal was a bad trade. The Mets weakened themselves in the rotation without a clear cut replacement in a market where pitchers are getting big deals. Ultimately, the Walker deal had to be about money as he and Niese are going to make similar money, give or take a million.
My $0.30 sneakers? Well, they would have to donated, i.e. we got rid of them. That’s what the Mets will do with Walker after this year. I just hope Walker will be a better fit before he’s gone.
The Mets lost out on Ben Zobrist, and now they’re back to square one. There are two choices:
- Go with Dilson Herrera; or
- Sign a free agent
Naturally, the logical place to look is Daniel Murphy. He carried the Mets offensively in the postseason. He was an All Star. Seemingly, Kevin Long helped Murphy unlock some power in his swing. He’s among the top offensive second baseman in the game even with his low OBP.
Now, I disagreed with the Zobrist pursuit, but I understood it. Historically, Zobrist is the much better player. What I don’t understand is the Mets distaste for Murphy:
Mets' interest in Daniel Murphy at this point is limited to if they can get him on a 1-2 year deal, which is probably not happening.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) December 9, 2015
Why is Murphy worth two years less than Zobrist? Murphy is four years younger. He’s versatile. He’s a team player. He doesn’t complain. He does what’s necessary to help the team win. There a lot of value in that. Plus, he’s insurance for David Wright‘s back.
Look, if you have that much faith in Herrera, great! However, I don’t get the disparagement of Murphy. Yes, only offering him two years after offering Zobrist four years is disparaging. Murphy was a good Met who did a lot of good for the team. He deserves to be treated better on the way out.
Like everyone else, I’ve gone on and on about Ben Zobrist, Daniel Murphy, and the whole second base situation. Now, Zobrist seems to be close to making a decision, and many have speculated he may just become a Met. Honestly, why would he do that?
First and foremost, the obvious reason is the Mets may be offering the most money, which frankly, is a rarity in these situations. Other than that, I can only think of five other reasons Zobrist would want to be a Met:
Sure, the Mets are an NL East team closer to Zobrist’s Tennessee home than an NL West team, and they intend to put him at second where he prefers. The Mets did win the pennant establishing they are ready to win now. There are other nice pieces on the team, but they carry question marks: Curtis Granderson (age), David Wright (back), Travis d’Arnaud (injury history), and Juan Lagares (right handed pitching).
Zobrist would be joining a team losing its #3 and #4 hitters and replacing them both with just him. The Mets also have a bottom third payroll with apparently not much room to increase it despite the additional playoff revenue. Sure, every team has problems, but the other two teams interested in Zobrist will go out and spend. The other options may be more attractive than the Mets.
Washington Nationals
Keep in mind, the Nationals remain a dangerous team. They still have Max Scherzer (who no-hit the Mets) and Stephen Strasburg headlining the rotation. Bryce Harper took his game to the next level and won the MVP award. Anthony Rendon is a very good young player, who may very well be a Top 5 Third Baseman. There are exciting young players like Michael Taylor and Trea Turner.
The Nationals also had the third highest payroll in the sport last year (no one was going higher than the Dodgers and Yankees). They already addressed their biggest problem from last year by firing Matt Williams and hiring Dusty Baker. Dusty has his flaws, but he always seems to get the most out of his players. Lastly, the Nationals have already stated they want Zobrist to play second base.
Overall, the Nationals are still poised to win a lot of games next year, have a lot of terrific pieces, and have the ability to spend the money necessary to be a contender to win the World Series.
San Fransicso Giants
Speaking of contenders to win the World Series, next year is an even numbered year, which means the Giants are due to win the World Series. The Giants were the other team that no-hit the Mets this year.
Overall, there is a lot to like with the Giants. Madison Bumgarner is the best money pitcher in the sport. Buster Posey might just be the best position player in the NL (if it’s not Harper). Bruce Bochy is the best manager in all of baseball as well. There’s also the matter of the Giants hitting coach, who has been doing wonders with some of their younger players.
Gold Glover Brandon Crawford has increasingly hit for more power. Joe Panik has become an underestimated high OBP second baseman (sound familiar?). Matt Duffy showed increased power while finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Seriously, so what if the Giants want Zobrist to play LF? This is a team built to contend for the long and short team. They also have the sixth highest payroll in baseball. This team has an eye for young talent and is willing to spend to either keep their players or bring in new ones to fill their holes. The Giants have truly created a wonderful organization.
The Decision
If you’re being honest with yourself, and the money is even, why would you pick the Mets? They don’t have the wherewithal to spend the other teams do. The other teams have been addressing needs this offseason, while the Mets have yet to bring someone in to improve their team. It’s still debatable if the Mets have enough money to make another significant move if Zobrist becomes a Met.
If it was me, I’d always pick the Mets because I’m a die hard fan. However, if we’re looking at these teams on paper, I’m not sure the Mets are the most attractive option for any free agent. You have to know that going to the Mets may mean you’re going to be the only major league signing. That’s been pretty much true of ever offseason for the Sandy Alderson regime.
Given the fact that Zobrist wants to win, play second, and stay closer to home, why shouldn’t he pick the Nationals? They have pitching and an arguably better lineup then the Mets. They also have the ability to spend more money than the Mets.
While I would always choose to be a Met, if I’m being honest, a sure with no such loyalty could/should choose differently.
There’s a free agent out there who fits the Mets needs quite well. He’s a career .281/.365/.479 hitter. He hits lefty and he plays well defensively at first, second, and third. He only wants a one year deal making him a good stopgap until Dilson Herrera is ready.
In case you haven’t already guessed, the player is Chase Utley. When you think of potential free agents the Mets would consider, he checks all the boxes:
- Left handed bat
- Versatile
- Good defender
- High OBP
- Cheap
Unfortunately, you can’t add a player like him to this team, not after this:
Sure, he’s at least close enough to David Wright to have his cell phone number. cell phone number. So maybe there’s a chance things could be smoothed over with the team. However, it never will with the fans. It just would never sit right with them. I will admit a small part of me would be amused by the Mets defending Utley at the suspension appeal hearing because they took the cheap way out.
Ultimately, Utley would be a nice fit on the Mets in 2016 if he wasn’t Utley. Maybe the Mets can consult with Bobby V to get a disguise to make this happen. Other than that, it looks like it’ll be Herrera next year without a safety net.
Scratch Utley as a cheap option the Mets could chase.
Here’s a question for you. If you had a GM that gave a bad contract to a 35 year old, forfeiting a pick in the process, and depleted it’s farm system of its top end starting pitching prospects for rentals, what would you call that GM? Apparently, you call Sandy Alderson the Executive of the Year.
Before proceeding, I’d like to note Alderson has generally done a good job with the Mets. The R.A. Dickey trade was a stroke of genius. However, that happened three years ago, and this is a 2015 award.
Alderson made two major league free agent signings for the 2015 season. The first was Michael Cuddyer. It was immediately panned by everyone. Alderson was out-maneuvered there by the Rockies of all organizations. With the Mets all but declaring they were signing David Wright‘s friend, the Rockies gave Cuddyer a qualifying offer. The Mets then gave Cuddyer a two year $21 million contract. Cuddyer was hurt, and he regressed as 35 year old players do. He’s now a $12.5 million bench player.
The other free agent deal was John Mayberry, Jr. Mayberry hit .164/.227/.318. He was released at the end of July. Overall, Alderson’s free agent acquisitions were complete busts.
His trades weren’t much better. Do you realize for a team touted with organizational starting pitching depth, Alderson depleted much of it. He traded eight minor league arms in total. For all the pitchers that were traded, Addison Reed is the only player the Mets could keep in 2016. By the way, Reed is a non-tender candidate.
Yes, the Mets made the World Series. They also lost it. For all the moves and sacrificing the future, the Mets still fell short. Further, it does not appear the moves generated enough revenue to sufficiently increase payroll. In the end, the Mets have up two big pitching prospects for rentals. If you’re saying it was worth it, I ask you if John Smoltz was worth it?
In 1987, Smoltz was traded for Doyle Alexander. Alexander went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA for the Tigers. His fantastic run certainly mirrors the run Yoenis Cespedes had this year. Like the Mets, the Tigers won their division. Like the Mets, the Tigers didn’t win the World Series. The Tigers lost out on a Hall of Fame career. Time will only tell with Michael Fulmer. However, we do know he’s a highly rated prospect the Tigers believe can contribute very soon.
It’s the reason I said it was a bad trade from the beginning. It’s even worse when you consider the Tigers had to trade Cespedes because they were about to lose him for nothing.
Then there’s the issue of giving up another well regarded prospect in Casey Meisner for Tyler Clippard. Clippard was a rental. Yes, Clippard was terrific early on with the Mets, and he helped the Mets win the division. Addison Reed was even better, and the Mets obtained him for much less. Again, this was a bad trade.
No, Alderson won this award for his earlier work and the system built by Omar Minaya. Alderson weakened the farm system in 2015, and he may now need to trade away major league talent rather than minor leaguers to improve the team in 2016. After all his moves, the Mets still don’t have a shortstop. There may also be new holes in center and at second.
Alderson has had a good run here, but he was not good in 2015. He certainly wasn’t the best executive in 2015. Unfortunately, this should bear out in the oncoming years.
With every team seemingly interested in Ben Zobrist, it appears the almost 35 year old is going to get a four year deal. Good for him.
The good news is that the Mets have no interest in giving him a four year deal. It’s the prudent move especially when you consider he’s in the midst of a four year decline. Based upon Adam Rubin’s article, the Mets may now turn to either Daniel Murphy or Asdrubal Cabrera to play second and occasionally spell David Wright at third base. I’ve written enough about Murphy, but it’s the first time I’ve seen the Mets linked to Cabrera.
For starters, Cabrera is not the hitter Zobrist or Murphy is. Last year, Cabrera hit .265/.315/.430 with 15 homeruns and 58 RBIs. For his career, he’s a .267/.329/.412 hitter, who averages 15 homeruns and 75 RBIs a year. He’s been good for an OPS+ of 104 meaning he’s a league average hitter. Overall, his career averages are skewed by his career year in 2011 when he hit .273/.332/.460 with 25 homeruns and 92 RBIs. This was also before his getting busted for steroids.
As we’ve seen with the Mets, the steroids issue won’t preclude them from signing Cabrera. Assuming it’s behind him, his .265/.315/.430 batting line would be an upgrade over an internal option like Wilmer Flores and his .263/.295/.408 batting line with an OPS+ of 95.
That’s where Cabrera becomes a little more interesting. Over the course of his career, he’s been a SS. However, he’s been a bad one. His UZR last year at short was -6.0, which was his best defensive year in five years. Over his career, he’s averaged a -6.2 UZR. Plain and simple, he’s a bad SS. In fact, he’s worse than Flores. At second and third, he’s had limited time, but he’s shown to be nothing more than average.
Ultimately, the prudence of signing Cabrera comes down to the contract. On a one year deal, he makes a lot of sense. As a replacement for Murphy’s bat, the signing doesn’t make sense no matter how good the terms of the deal are. Given the state of the free agent market, I’m not sure it’s wise to go after Cabrera and a centerfielder. As suggested by Ken Davidoff, the Mets will turn to center if they can’t sign Zobrist.
At this point, the best move might just be signing their young pitchers to extensions. The free agent market is poor, and the pitching is the Mets path to success. With that said, the Mets better kick them up.