The Mets have a lot of needs this offseason. The only thing everyone seems to know is the Mets aren’t going to spend money or re-sign their third place hitter, Daniel Murphy, or their clean-up hitter, Yoenis Cespedes.
Here’s the thing. The only free agent who has signed a deal was Rich Hill. The only major trade was the Andrelton Simmons deal, and we know Simmoms wasn’t going to be traded to the Mets. With all the rumors flying around, one thing is for certain. Nothing has been decided yet.
It’s an important offseason for the Mets. They were just in the World Series. If they want to return and/or win there’s work to do. The Mets also have to make good on some promises. They always said if fans came to the ballpark, they would have money to spend on payroll. Well, the Mets had a 19.5% increase in attendance. SNY ratings are up 60%. The Mets are increasing ticket prices. There should be more money to spend. In fact, there is. There’s about $45 – $60 million extra revenue from 2015.
No, that’s not what we’re hearing. We’re hearing free agents are costing too much. We’re reminded small market teams outspend them. The reason might be because the Wilpons and their entities have significant debt payments due. There’s supposedly more than $29 million due. If the Mets don’t do anything, that will be the story and deservedly so.
Personally, I don’t think there is much out in the free agent market. I advocated letting Cespedes walk. However, there are realistic avenues to spend money. They can bring back Murphy. They can create a dominant bullpen. They could also start trying to extend their starting pitchers. There’s room to spend money.
I’m frustrated with the Mets right now because they’ve done nothing, but then again, there’s been very little movement in the offseason. It’s also frustrating not being able to vent about what most Mets fans feel is inevitable. We all assume the Mets won’t spend, but we can’t exactly call them out on something that hasn’t happened yet because the possibility remains they might.
All in all, it all just creates a very irritating and frustrating offseason. By the way, the offseason has only been a little over two weeks old. There’s the definite possibility it’s going to get worse.
Simply put, the free agent market for shortstops isn’t good when there is no clear-cut upgrade over Wilmer Flores. Accordingly, the Mets will probably have to get creative if they want a new shortstop.
With the Reds having a fire sale, there is plenty available. They have quality major leaguers at a number of positions. Of all of these players, the most expendable and easy to obtain player should be Zack Cozart. Due to his injury last year, the Reds saw their shortstop of the future, Eugenio Suarez, play everyday and earn a spot as the Opening Day shortstop in 2016.
Cozart would be an interesting addition for the Mets. For a team looking to add offense this season, he’s a player whose value is almost solely derived from his defense. It better be because he’s not a good hitter, not even in a hitter’s park like the Great American Ballpark. He’s a career .245/.284/.375 hitter with an OPS+ of 79. That’s bad. To put it in perspective, Juan Lagares struggled at the plate last year, and his OPS+ was 80.
So if the Mets are adding Cozart, they will be adding him solely for his defense. During his five year career, his average UZR is 6.5, which means he’s above average. Not great, but above average. If you remove his injury shortened 2015, the average rises to a 7.6, which is better, but it still does not put him in any Gold Glove discussions.
It’s a risk even before taking his knee injury into account. He’s also a terrible hitter who probably doesn’t have the glove to justify the bat. So why take a risk? Easy, he’s going to come cheap. That’s important for a team with limited resources.
Assuming he’s tendered a contract by the Reds, he’s projected to make $2.9 million. With Ruben Tejada also on the mend, the Mets could carry both of these players into the spring, and see who is healthier and/or better. If Cozart reaches his potential, he may one day become a Gold Glover. If he can’t play, the Mets can simply cut him before the start of the season. It that case the Mets would owe either him or Tejada 30-45 days of salary.
Ideally, the Mets should wait for Cozart to be non-tendered. If he’s not, it would be prudent to add him to the shortstop mix.
With the Mets most likely losing Daniel Murphy in free agency, there is a hole at second base. The Mets seem comfortable with Dilson Herrera in his place. With that said, Herrera is 21 and may need some more time before being able to take over the position full time.
The problem is the second base free agent market is devoid of stopgap options. When that is the case, you can either stick with what you have, or you could look to trade for a stopgap option. Right now, the Cincinnati Reds are conducting a fire sale and have Brandon Phillips. Would Phillips be worth pursuing?
For his career, Phillips has hit .273/.320/.421. Last year, Phillips hit .294/.328/.395. Now, most of these stats come from his hitting at the Great American Ballpark, which is a hitter’s park. His career OPS+ is 96. Last year, it was at 97. Basically, Phillips is around a league average hitter who shows he’s not in decline offensively despite being 34 years old.
He has an average UZR of 5.8, which makes him an above average second baseman. Like his offense, Phillips has shown that he’s not declining defensively. In the last five years, his respective UZRs have been 11.1, 8.7, 8.6, 8.1, and 2.0. Last year was a drop defensively, but he’s also the best defensive option.
There are two hurdles to him becoming a Met. The first is you need to trade for him (I don’t try to guess what’ll take). The next is his contract. He still has two years and $27 million left on his deal. That’s a lot for a team with limited resources, but still less than what the free agent second baseman are commanding. If the Mets want to add a second baseman, Phillips might be the cheapest option.
Phillips might be the best second option the Mets have right now.
Let me start off by saying, I’m not in favor of trading the Mets starting pitching. They’re still cheap, and they’re the main reason the Mets won the NL East and went to the World Series.
With that said, everyone wants at least one of the Mets young starters. It at least appears the Mets are shopping Zack Wheeler. There’s a lot of smoke surrounding the Mets moving Matt Harvey. It’s probably due to the double standards applied to him. It’s more likely that it involves him being arbitration eligible with the Mets having limited resources.
In any event, the Harvey rumors and trade suggestions are abound. At my cousin’s wedding on Saturday (congratulations Brian and Alison), my brother and I discussed the Mark Simon article regarding the proposed Harvey for Mookie Betts trade. My brother’s main objection to the idea of trading Harvey was his value will only increase next year. If we’ve seen anything with pitcher’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s they are better in Year 2.
My brother is right in principle. You want to trade players at their peak value. Right now, that pitcher is Jacob deGrom. For much of the season, he was a Cy Young candidate. He was the story at the All Star Game. He had a terrific postseason. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2018, and he can’t be a free agent until 2021. His value may be at its absolute peak.
He will also be 28 years old next year making him the oldest Mets starting pitcher, at least the oldest amongst those who the Mets have control over past 2016. In some ways, he emerged as the staff ace rendering him untradeable. In other ways, it makes it the right time to trade him.
You don’t trade someone like Harvey who is still building up his trade value. You trade the player who you believe is at peak value. Again, while I don’t advocate trading a starting pitcher, we should at least identify the one who will bring back the most value and be at the most risk for regression.
That player is deGrom.
Last summer, the Mets understandably almost traded Zack Wheeler. They thought they were getting Carlos Gomez, an All Star Gold Glove CF with another year of control. They were trying to make a playoff run by trading an injured pitcher. Ironically, the deal fell apart due to Gomez’s, not Wheeler’s, medical records.
Once the trade was undone, it seemed like the Mets were primed to create an even deeper super rotation. The only thing that stands in that way is the amount of holes this Mets team has coupled with the financial constraints. The Mets have roughly $18 million in the budget to get a second baseman and a shortstop. Depending on your point of view, the Mets also need a centerfielder and a reliever. Good luck filling all of those needs with that little money.
If you want to do it, you’re going to have to make a trade or two. With the Mets unloading their best trade chips, they’re going to have to trade from their major league talent pool to improve their roster. Everyone wants the Mets young pitching. Perhaps the best way to do that would be to trade Wheeler. He’s still highly regarded, but he also wasn’t there for the run to the World Series. Only the Mets say they’re not shopping him.
That’s what they say. In actuality, they are shopping Wheeler around to teams. Here was Assistant GM John Ricco’s quote about the prospect of trading Wheeler:
We’re not actively shopping Zack by any stretch. But as with the other starters, if something came up that we thought would make us better, we’re going to talk about it.
***
If there’s a deal that we think really makes us better, I can’t say we would [trade Wheeler again].
Here’s the thing about these quotes: there have been no Wheeler trade rumors. None! This is a salvo from the Mets to let people know they Wheeler is there for the taking . . . again.
It’s a smart move. He’s probably at his peak value. People remember his terrific stuff. They just saw the Mets young pitching go to the World Series. Wheeler was good enough to fetch an All Star CF with a reasonable contract last year, and that was when Wheeler was at least a year away.
Wheeler hasn’t had a set back during his rehab. He hasn’t come back and faltered. Neither of these may happen, but they are certainly possibilities. It’s also important to remember that Wheeler has a wealth of talent, but he has only been an average pitcher.
With that said, it’s a good time to shop Wheeler to see if you can get even more than the All Star CF they were set to obtain. This was the first time Wheeler’s name has been mentioned by anyone as a trade candidate. You’ll probably start to hear it a lot more. The Mets put his name out there to field offers.
They should start coming in. That’s what happens when you shop a player around. That’s what the Mets started doing by saying they’d consider trading him.
You know who used to be awesome? Tim Lincecum. In 2008 and 2009, he won back-to-back Cy Young Awards. In 2010, he helped pitch the Giants to their first Workd Series title since they moved to San Francisco.
After 2010, things have not gone well for Lincecum. His ERAs have been over 4.00, he’s had injuries, and he hasn’t been able to stay in the rotation. He was in the bullpen for the 2012 title run. He had only one relief appearance in the entire 2014 postseason. Last year, his year ended early because he needed hip surgery. He’s now a free agent.
There’s a number of red flags. I look at that, and I see discount signs. It’s where you need to go if you truly have limited resources to improve in the offseason. You need to take what will hopefully be low cost, high reward signings. Ultimately, what the Mets would be looking for is the 2012 postseason version of Big Time Timmy Jim.
Somewhat surprisingly, Lincecum was in the bullpen making six appearances (one NLCS start). He had a 2.55 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, and a 10.2 K/9. He showed a glimpse of having the ability to be great in the bullpen. What he hasn’t shown is the ability to be durable or good enough to make 32 starts per year.
Long lost in baseball is the true long man. The player who could make a few appearances one week and make a start the next week. It’s something the Mets needed last year, and if they’re honest, they will want one next year with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard throwing more innings last year than they’ve thrown before in their careers.
With all the troubles he’s had recently, it might be good to convince Lincecum he needs a new start. Convince him he could use a one year contract to re-establish his value so he may become the next Dennis Eckersley or John Smoltz. With two Cy Youngs and three World Series rings, you’re selling him on his Hall of Fame chances. His best chance would be moving to the bullpen.
There’s one spot left in the bullpen. Why not offer it to Lincecum? It may seem Freaky, but it may be equally beneficial to all involved.
After we found out Daniel Murphy rejected the qualifying offer, there were many people saying good bye to Murphy. Others celebrated his departure. These were all premeditated even if Murphy’s return is unlikely:
For those wondering, was told contract extension talks with Murphy never became serious. Again, all signs point to him going elsewhere.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) November 14, 2015
Yes, it’s likely Murphy leaves, but it’s not definitive. Murphy could still sign with the Mets. This is one of many misconceptions out there:
Mets Are Better Without Murphy
I really don’t understand this one. I’m well aware of his faults. He’s not a good baserunner. He’s not good defensively at second. He doesn’t walk a lot, and he doesn’t have a lot of power.
Well he is a second baseman, and he is one of the top hitters at that position. He hit .281/.322/.449 last year. Amongst second basemen:
- Batting average ranked ninth in the majors and fourth in the NL.
- OBP ranked twelfth in the majors and fifth in the NL. He was
- Slugging ranked fourth in the majors and first in the NL.
He had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. He’s making more and better contact. He’s clutch. Very clutch! Losing Murphy would be a big blow to the 2016 Mets, and that’s before you take into account if Dilson Herrera is ready or if David Wright can play everyday over 162 games.
The Money Can Be Better Allocated
This one is just wrong. With Murphy presumably gone, the Mets at least have issues to address in the middle infield. Some believe the Mets need another CF. Others want to get some more relievers. There’s also a group that wants to get an insurance option for Wright at third.
That’s a lot to add, especially for a team that only has about $18 million in their budget to resolve all of these problems. If you re-sign Murphy, you have at least address second base and the Wright insurance plan. With Murphy pegged to receive around $12 million annually, there is sufficient funds to add another reliever and/or a backup CF.
The only other free agent who can check these boxes is Ben Zobrist, who is a mistake signing waiting to happen. He’s 35 and in the midst of a three year decline. Last year, he was actually WORSE than Murphy defensively. I can’t believe the Mets will walk down this path again after signing a 35 year old Michael Cuddyer last year.
The Mets Have Better Internal Options
This is just ponderous. If you go the Wilmer Flores route, you’ve eliminated the Mets best possible shortstop option. Also, if you’re beating up Murphy for low OBP and the like, here’s Flores’ stats from last year: .263/.295/.408. He’s right handed and not even in the same league as Murphy as a hitter.
The other option is Dilson Herrera, who I think has a promising future. However, he’s still only 21. In limited major league duty over the past two years, he’s hit .215/.308/.383. Are we really confident he’s going to be handle the job next year? He will eventually, but this is a team that was just in the World Series. You should go with players who you know you can trust, not ones you hope can.
He’s a Net Negative
This is actually an oldie, but it is a good place for summation. Overall, for all of Murphy’s faults, he’s been a good guy that has performed well in New York. He was bounced all over the place, and he never complained. That’s important to have on any team, especially when it comes from a veteran.
More importantly, we should look at how he responded to the comment. He went on a homerun tear in the playoffs like we’ve never seen. Most people wilt under the bright lights of New York. He rose to the occasion.
Can you win a World Series with Murphy being the best player on your team? Probably not. However, as he showed this postseason, you’re probably not getting to the World Series without at least one Murphy in your team. Whoever signs Murphy is going to get a very good baseball player. A player who is versatile, hits well, and does not complain.
Until such a time as Murphy signs with another team, I’m not writing an obituary on his Mets career. I’m not saying good-bye yet. Instead, I’m holding out hope the Mets can push the misconceptions aside and re-sign Murphy.
Unsurprisingly, the Mets have interest in both Darren O’Day and Joakim Soria. If you’re looking for an elite setup guy, you’re going to be interested in both players.
Soria is now three years removed from Tommy John surgery. In the four seasons prior to the one he was injured, Soria was an elite closer recording 132 saves with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.988 WHIP. He got injured, and he became a different player. Still a good closer/reliever, but not an elite closer.
After coming back from surgery, he went to Texas where he recorded 17 saves with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP in two years. He then signed with the Tigers, who seem desperate for relief help every year (sound familiar?). In two years, he recorded 24 saves with a 3.29 ERA and s 1.115 WHIP. When he was traded to the Pirates, he was terrific in the bullpen because he’s a good pitcher and everyone is terrific in the Pirates bullpen. In 29 games he had a 2.03 ERA with a 1.163 WHIP.
With the Mets seeking an eighth inning reliever, Soria would be an upgrade over Addison Reed, who has a career 4.01 ERA and a 1.261 career WHIP. Soria is a huge upgrade. Soria is expected to receive a 2 year $14 million contract or $7 million per season. Reed is slated to receive $5.7 million in arbitration. Soria would be worth the $1.3 million increase.
O’Day appears like he will command a 3 year $21 million contract or $7 million per year. While I think the $7 million per year on both O’Day and Soria are fair estimates, the increased interest may bump those numbers up to around $8 million per season.
Right now, the Mets projected payroll is around $92 million with about $18 million left in the budget. Would it be wise to blow almost all of it on relievers? I think so. The current free agent market lacks the elite second base, shortstop, or center fielders who would improve the Mets offense. The Mets don’t seem inclined to bring back Daniel Murphy.
The best solution might be to create an absolute shut down pitching staff. Going from the Mets elite starters to O’Day-Soria-Jeurys Familia will hold up any lead the Mets can muster. Also, keep in mind, the Mets will have full years from David Wright, Michael Conforto, and Travis d’Arnaud, which should offset the losses of Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes.
The Mets best approach to this offseason might be to create a shutdown bullpen to match their starting pitching. Bring on both O’Day and Soria.
After one uneven season and a poor throw in the World Series, Mets fans seem ready to move on from Lucas Duda. Some see it as an avenue to keep the very popular Daniel Murphy. Others just don’t seem to like him.
While I tend to think this is overplayed, I wanted to do a Player A and Player B comparison. I used the last two years because those are the years Duda has been an everyday first baseman. Player A and Player B are both first baseman. They are both the same age. Both players are left-handed hitters.
Player A
2014 – .196/.300/.404, OPS+ 96, WAR 1.8
2015 – .262/.361/.562, OPS+ 146, WAR 5.2
Player B
2014 – .253/.349/.481, OPS+ 137, WAR 3.6
2015 – .255/.352/.486, OPS+ 132, WAR 3.0
Which player would you rather have? It’s certainly debatable.
Well, Player A is Chris Davis, who is expected to receive a free agent contract in the area of 5 years $100 million or $20 million per season.
As you guessed, Player B is Lucas Duda, who cannot be a free agent until 2018. Lucas Duda is projected to receive $6.8 million in arbitration. Even if you picked Player A above, would you have paid him $13.2 million more a year? Of course not, regardless of the Mets financial situation.
I already know the following arguments:
- I’m omitting Davis’ 2013 season; and
- Davis has hit more homeruns over the last two years.
That’s fine. I am. However, Davis gets to play half his games in Camden Yards over Citi Field. Last year, Davis hit .285/.376/.650 at home and .241/.348/.482 on the road. Davis’ road numbers look awfully similar to Duda’s .255/.352/.486 from last year. This just shows that Lucas Duda is a very good baseball player. Mets fans should appreciate him. He’s got enormous value.
Move Duda to Camden Yards and maybe he’s the guy getting a $100 million contract.
With the Mets having limited money to spend, they seemingly have two options: (1) improve a strength; or (2) address a weakness. With the Mets have holes at both middle infield spots and centerfield, depending on your point of view, the Mets may be looking to improve a strength:
Sounds like Mets like O’Day too, which is obvious. But easy to see his market heating up and being out of reach.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
Without making a move, the Mets already have a good bullpen. Why improve it with all the other holes? Why address the bullpen when the Mets are losing Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes? The reason is you can’t bring back both. Therefore, no matter what happens you’re going to be playing in tight games next year. The best way to handle those games is with great pitching.
The Mets have great starting pitching, but only a good bullpen. The addition of Darren O’Day would make the bullpen great. In six of the eight years he’s pitched, he has had an ERA of 2.28 and below. For his career, righties hit .193/.261/.279. Lefties hit him better to the tune of .235/.294/.409. As you would expect, lefties hit the submarining O’Day better than righties, but they don’t exactly hit him well. Furthermore, O’Day has been improving against them while he’s been in Baltimore:
- 2014: .189/.264/.368
- 2015: .210/.293/.333
O’Day has become a terrific set-up man. Combining him with Jeurys Familia would make every game a seven inning game with the Mets. With their starting pitcher, that’s a dangerous proposition for the Mets opponents.
It may also be what the Mets need with what promises to be a diminished Mets offense.