Initially, Hansel Robles was supposed to be a stop gap when Jerry Blevins was injured. He was only supposed to be up until the Mets could find a left-handed replacement. He was only supposed to be up until Vic Black and Bobby Parnell was ready.
He was recommended by Wally Backman because he was “really throwing the ball good.” Terry Collins liked him from Spring Training because he had a good arm, and how he responded to his demotion. It’s probably why he was promoted over seemingly more logical options like Jack Leathersich and Zack Thornton.
Well, Robles has stuck. He’s shown a 94+ MPH fastball. He’s striking out a little more than one batter per inning. He’s 1.014 WHIP is pretty good. However, none of that is his trademark. His trademark is his quick pitch. A page right out of the LaTroy Hawkins handbook. There’s no stopping him, not even his catcher, Travis d’Arnaud.
Once the batter is in the box, he’s pitching. There’s nothing illegal about it, but boy dies it get the opposition hopping mad. He’s psyching out the opponents. He’s getting better.
Robles was good in the first half limiting batters to a triple slash line of .214/.287/.321. In the second half, he’s only allowed a triple slash line of .171/.236/.427. His WHIP dropped from 1.191 to 0.845. He’s gone from 7.5 K/9 to 11.8. What’s even better is he has no platoon splits. That’s not true. He had a bit of a reverse platoon split. Righties are hitting .215/.300/.430, and lefties are hitting .153/.190/.271.
If not for the Addison Reed addition, Robles would be the leading candidate for the seventh inning. Now? He’s the top guy in the pen in the sixth inning and pressure situations. He’s pretty much a lock for the postseason roster. Not too bad for a guy who was never supposed to be here and never was supposed to stick.
I’m looking forward to him quick pitching the Mets to a World Series title.
Regardless of whether I like it or not, Michael Conforto is a platoon player. Despite my problems with Terry Collins’ recent decision making, I understand his philosophy. He wants to get Michael Cuddyer‘s bat and Juan Lagares‘ glove out there. In the short term, it’s the right decision.
I also like the idea that Collins seems to be having auditions for spots on the playoff roster. There’s a delicate balance right now between these auditions, keeping players healthy, getting the team ready for October, and protecting a large six game lead. Part of getting the Mets ready for the playoffs is getting the players who will be on the playoff roster ready for what they’ll see in the playoffs.
The Mets should start with getting Conforto ABs against lefties. With Murphy and Michael Cuddyer injured, it’s a good time. Last night was a good start when Collins let Conforto face Mike Dunn. Conforto didn’t get a hit, but he also didn’t look overmatched.
On Saturday and Sunday, the Marlins may start a LHP (although there are rumblings Sunday’s starter may change). Conforto should play in one of those games. It’s a good idea because there will come a point in time in October that a team will bring in a lefty to face Conforto. If it’s late in the game or extra innings, Collins may not have the luxury of pinch hitting for him in that spot. With that being said, it’s a good time to get Conforto some ABs against lefties now.
To make room for Conforto in the lineup, the Mets could sit Curtis Granderson against a lefty. First, he isn’t hitting lefties well at all. Second, it would be good to get him a day off before a big series against the Nationals. Finally, it would be a good idea to let someone else get some reps in RF. I don’t care if it’s Conforto or the better suited Yoenis Cespedes with his strong arm. Failing to do this might’ve cost the Mets the game last night.
Overall, let’s get this team ready for what they’ll see in October. This includes letting Conforto see some lefties before the season is over.
It’s no secret the Mets have a hole in their bullpen. They need a LOOGY. With Dario Alvarez getting the call-up, the competition for the spot officially begins.
In actuality, the competition may have begun last night. With one out in the seventh, Terry Collins brought in Sean Gilmartin to face the left-handed Odubel Herrera and Ryan Howard. Herrera singled and Howard hit into a double play. If this was indeed the start of the competition, Gilmartin threw down the gauntlet.
Gilmartin has found a nice role for himself in the Mets bullpen as the long man. He has appeared in 42 games going 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and a 2.46 FIP. In sum, he’s been fantastic. I’m sure he’s been considered for the long man role in the postseason. It appears he’s being considered for the LOOGY role as well.
The problem is the Mets are potentially looking to avoid a season’s worth of data. They’re also neglecting the adage that you never trust September results. The reason I mention this Gilmartin succeeds as a long man because he doesn’t have severe platoon splits. In fact, he’s slightly worse against lefties:
- RHB .215/.288/.280
- LHB .222/.282/.310
With that said, those are good numbers against lefties. Those numbers are on par with Eric O’Flaherty‘s career numbers against lefties: .209/.272/.272. Unlike Gilmartin, O’Flaherty can’t pitch to righties. O’Flaherty gets pummeled by righties in his career to the tune of .277/.356/.392. Also unlike Gilmartin, O’Flaherty has been terrible this year and worse so with the Mets.
O’Flaherty has a 14.14 ERA with the Mets with a 2.429 WHIP and a 5.28 FIP. He’s getting pummeled this year too. Righties are hitting .413/.496/.651. He hasn’t been impressive as a LOOGY going .262/.333/.308 against lefties. If he’s on the postseason roster and the opposition pinch hits a right when he comes into the game, watch out! That’s the strength of using Gilmartin as a LOOGY. If there’s a pinch hitter, he can handle it.
However, Gilmartin’s ability to give you multiple innings cannot be ignored, and that is why, September or no September, Alvarez needs a good, hard look. He’s pitched extremely well in AAA. Lefties and righties are batting .167 off of him. Given the fact that the PCL is a hitter’s league this is all the more impressive.
So we know Alvarez has the talent. It’s now an issue of whether his talent and AAA success translates to the majors. He has a lot riding on this, as do the Mets.
In 2008, the Milwaukee Brewers went all-in. They traded their best prospects for CC Sabathia. They rode him hard down the stretch. They were doing everything to make the playoffs. They even fired their manager with 12 games left in the season. It might’ve been reactionary to a late losing streak. It might’ve been a response to their current manager being over his head.
Before continuing, I feel it’s important to note that Terry Collins is a good man. I also need to note, Collins should be commended for holding this team together when the season was seemingly falling apart. However, this is a different roster. There are different stakes.
The first issue is the lineup construction. Here’s last night’s lineup with their OBPs for this year and their career:
- Curtis Granderson .352/.340
- Yoenis Cespedes .328/.318
- Daniel Murphy .332/.333
- David Wright .377/.377
- Kelly Johnson .303/.330
- Travis d’Arnaud .348/.310
- Michael Conforto .360
- Ruben Tejada .331/.328
- Pitcher’s Spot
Note, I gave Johnson’s numbers against RHP because he’s being used as a platoon player. Due to the small sample size, I gave Conforto’s total OBP even though he’s a platoon player.
This lineup doesn’t make sense. You want higher OBP hitters ahead of the big bats. That’s why Cespedes should hit cleanup with Wright batting second. Wouldn’t you rather have Wright on base for one of Cespedes’ “Feats of Strength“? The answer is yes. It makes sense. Look at it this way: if Wright is going to single or double and Cespedes is going to hit a homerun, in which order would you like that to happen?
Now, I’ve heard the argument that the Mets have won seven in a row scoring a lot of runs; why change anything? My first response is that’s not a good reason. Just because the Mets scored a lot of runs doesn’t mean you couldn’t have scored more runs with a better lineup. My next response is you beat the two worst teams in the NL in their bandbox ballparks. They’re one and two in most runs allowed in the NL. OF COURSE YOU’RE GOING TO SCORE RUNS!
My other problem with Collins is the in-game strategy. He’s had some problems this season, but last night was a new low. It’s like he didn’t know you could double switch. When Logan Verrett could’ve given multiple innings with a short bullpen and no Tyler Clippard, Collins didn’t double switch him into the game. As a result, Verrett went one inning and was pinch hit for as we was due up second. This led to some more odd decisions.
With Sean Gilmartin due up third in the tenth, and Collins wanting multiple innings from him, he let Gilmartin bat even though he still had Wilmer Flores [standing ovation], Juan Uribe, and Anthony Recker on the bench. By the way, they never entered a game in which two relievers got an AB.
Then in the same inning it was so important to have Gilmartin in, Collins brought in Carlos Torres. I can’t imagine any situation in which it was alright for Gilmartin to bat and that includes his .400 batting average. The Mets won despite Collins’ terrible managing. Could you imagine if that happened in October against a much better team? The Mets probably won’t be as lucky as they were last night.
Look, Collins has done a nice job here. He was handed a thankless job, and he did a good job. In most seasons, the Mets outperformed their expectations. A few times, they were competitive to the point where we actually considered that they may make a deadline trade. Now, they have a real roster, and they may need a better manager.
The problem is who becomes the next manager. No, it’s not Wally Backman. You don’t turn to someone with no major league managerial experience now. I think the answer is Bob Geren. He has prior managerial experience, and he’s the bench coach. It would be a smoother transition.
Now, I understand if people want to keep Collins. As I’ve said, he has some positive attributes. However, if your reason is you want to keep the status quo because things are working now, I can’t agree with you. You make decisions to try to win the World Series, not seven games against bad baseball teams.
Seriously, when people are now advocating for Collins to be named the Manager of the Year, we should really be talking about if a change is necessary. When Collins can’t double switch and lets his relievers bat with good options in the bench, the time for a switch may have arrived.
Today is the day David Wright comes off the DL. We know he will play 3B. We don’t know much more than that.
Actually that’s not entirely true. We know Curtis Granderson will hit leadoff except when there’s a lefty in the mound. Then Juan Lagares will hit leadoff. We also know Terry Collins wants Wright batting second. We know there’s a platoon system. I also assume we know the pitcher is batting ninth. I also assume Collins will try to alternate lefties and righties in the lineup. We’ll see later today, but I presume the lineup against righties would look like this:
- Granderson RF
- Wright 3B
- Murphy 1B
- Cespedes CF
- Johnson 2B
- d’Arnaud C
- Conforto LF
- Tejada SS
- Pitcher
Against lefties, the lineup may look like this:
- Lagares CF
- Wright 3B
- Murphy 2B
- Cespedes LF
- Granderdon RF
- Cuddyer 1B
- d’Arnaud C
- Tejada SS
- Pitcher
Of course, Collins likes to tweak it here and there to get Wilmer Flores [standing ovation] some ABs. I can also see him batting Granderson second against lefties with Wright third and Murphy fifth. I also assume Anthony Recker bats eighth when he plays.
Anyway, with the rough time Collins has been having, it’s hard to completely judge how he’ll map up the lineup. This is especially evident with him batting Juan Uribe cleanup. With Wright only playing four games in a row, there will be plenty of chances to do that. Overall, the challenge is not just setting the lineup, but it’s also keeping everyone engaged. Furthermore, it’s about keeping Wright healthy.
When Lucas Duda comes BACK, there will be some real challenges getting ABs for Uribe and Johnson. If argue the real challenge them would be making sure Collins doesn’t give them regular ABs and let the best players play.
Last week, I wrote about how I thought with Michael Cuddyer coming off the DL, the Mets should’ve sent Michael Conforto down to AAA.
My belief was that a Kelly Johnson/Juan Lagares platoon would be more effective than Comforto is right now. However, with some intensive work in AAA and some adjustments, Conforto would be a terrific option in September and beyond. Overall, however, my conclusion is if Cuddyer’s healthy, he should play everyday.
I never framed my opinion as a referendum between Conforto and Eric Campbell. The first reason is my argument focused around letting Conforto play everyday. He’s not going to get better on the bench. Campbell isn’t keeping Conforto in the bench; Terry Collins is. I understand why people saw it this way because the choice was between sending down Conforto or Campbell.
My issue was what would benefit Conforto the most. I’ve had some interesting conversations since the post. I’ve found many have misstated Conforto’s stats and impact. I’ve found many who are alright with disregarding his development for the sake of 2015. Interestingly, I’ve found at least one Mets fan that believed Conforto being in New York was better for his development:
@MetsDaddy2013 @mikehiel If everyone else is going good, I would think Long would definitely have more time for young rook.
— Metstradamus (@Metstradamus) August 10, 2015
On Wednesday, I think we saw there was merit to the argument. Metstradamus made a superb point about Kevin Long, and it does seem Conforto is learning something. I mention Metstradamus here because he deserves due credit for giving an original, well thought out response as to why Conforto should stay in the majors.
However, I’ll be honest; I am still convinced I was right in calling for Conforto to be called down. I think two weeks in the minors would’ve done a great deal of good for Conforto and the Mets in September and October. Through all of this, I still maintain Conforto needs to be on the postseason roster.
The reason I think I’m still correct is Conforto barely played last week. Here is his past week:
8/11: DNP
8/12: 0-1 (PH appearance)
8/13: 2-3 with a walk and a double
8/14: 0-1 (PH appearance)
8/15: 1-4 with a homerun
8/16: DNP
8/17: off day
In a one week span, he only got 10 plate appearances, and two of those were PH opportunities. It looks like he will play Tuesday and Wednesday against the Orioles. They’re off on Thursday, and then they go to Colorado, who has three LHP in their rotation. It looks like next week could be more of the same.
Overall, I’m not shying away from my opinion even if there is a possibility I could be wrong. The funny thing is we may never know if I was wrong or right. I don’t care as much in being right as I am in Conforto’s development. He looks like a star, and I want him to be given every opportunity to become that star.
In the future, I invite everyone to debate me whether it be in the comments, on Twitter, or anywhere else. Thank you again for taking the time to read.
It may be hard to believe this, but this is the second time, Daniel Murphy is in a pennant chase. The first time was in 2008, when the Mets desperately needed another bat (sound familiar?).
In 2008, the Mets had various injury issues (sound familiar?), and they rushed Murphy to the majors (sound familiar?). If you remember, this wasn’t a fun season. They were coming off a historic collapse, fired Willie Randolph after flying out to California, and they hired the man who back stabbed him to get the job. Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse, there were the press conferences (that the Mets couldn’t stop hyping):
One of the few bright spots of that season was Murphy. As we now know, he was a terrific hitter. In 2008, he hit .313/.397/.473. With this he got his foot in the door, and he was named the starting LF the next year. We know how that worked out.
However, we also know he’s a good hitter. Ironically, with him presumably having one foot out the door, he’s finally in a pennant race again. Again, he’s producing. In the second half he’s hit .292/.330/.448 (as compared to .277/.331/.405 in the first half). He’s also answered the call to play all over the infield due to injuries to different players or platoon splits.
Ultimately, Murphy is going out the way he came in . . . by doing everything he can to get the Mets into the playoffs. I hope he succeeds this time.
If it wasn’t so hot hot tonight, I swear it was October. Tonight’s game just had that feel to it.
Speaking of October, we got a glimpse why the Pirates may be better suited to go deeper in the playoffs – their bullpen. Top to bottom, it’s terrific. The Mets bullpen is top heavy with Tyler Clippard and Jeurys Familia. I’m not saying I felt like the game was in the balance when Bobby Parnell was announced. I am saying I have no confidence in him.
He did give up hard hits, and he left the game with no outs, runners on first and second, and the Mets down 2-1 in the tenth. Carlos Torres did his best to get out of it, but at the end of the top of the 10th, the Mets trailed 3-1.
That insurance run was a doozy. Juan Lagares had a terrific AB against Pirates closer, Mark Melancon, before hitting a double to right center. He would advance on a wild pitch and score on Curtis Granderson‘s sac fly. Cespedes would meekly strikeout. in fact, he failed to run with strike three in the dirt. That’s inexcusable. Juan Uribe would groundout to end the game. Final score was 3-2.
It’s too bad the crowd wasn’t paying attention to the game. You CANNOT do the wave in a tight, well played baseball game between two terrific teams. I’m not for outlawing the wave. There is a time and place for everything. There was no room for the wave tonight.
If they were actually paying attention to the game, they would’ve noticed Bartolo Colon‘s great performance. [I can admit it when he pitches well]. He only allowed a first inning homerun to Neil Walker. Sure, he was occasionally helped by his defense, but he got the groundballs to induce those double plays to get him out of trouble. Amazingly, J.A. Happ was just as good.
If not for that Yoenis Cespedes‘ sixth inning homerun, I’m positive the Mets would’ve lost 1-0 in an excellently played ballgame by both teams. Needless to say, it turned out all for naught.
In terms of the lineup, the Mets have shown Michael Conforto should’ve been sent down. They’re making him a platoon player, which could be detrimental to his career. He’s didnt start in 3/4 games against the Rockies, and he won’t start in 2/3 games against the Pirates. Monday is an off day. That means in one week he got one start and two PH appearances. Would it really have been that bad if those six plate appearances were divvied up between Eric Campbell, Kelly Johnson, and Juan Lagares?
With all of the hand-wringing over Michael Conforto, we’ve ignored other puzzling decisions by the Mets, namely:
https://mobile.twitter.com/msimonespn/status/631287918150049794
That’s right. Even though Curtis Granderson has had a real nice year, he’s not hitting lefties. This shouldn’t surprise anyone because he’s effectively been a platoon candidate throughout his career:
vs. RHP .269/.356/.504
vs. LHP .224/.294/.398
Now, since Terry Collins has an infatuation with leading off Juan Lagares, I would say this is a natural platoon. However, I shudder to think of Collins putting him in RF again with Yoenis Cespedes in center. Plus, Lagares is in that platoon with Conforto.
Last night, Michael Cuddyer played his first game since coming off the DL, and he played well. He was 2-4 with two runs scored. On the first run, he scored from second on Carlos Gonzalez’s strong arm. In the eighth, he stole a base. In sum, he looked healthy. If he’s really healthy, he creates a good problem to have.
He’s a professional hitter (an “ultimate pro“) with a career triple slash line of .277/.344/.462. Arguably, if healthy, he’s the best hitting OF currently on the team (I think it’s Cespedes). In his career, he’s been deadly against lefties to the tune of .288/.376/.495. I think it’s a no-brained for him to platoon with Granderson, at a minimum.
For his career, Cuddyer hits righties to the tune of .273/.330/.447. He’s much better against lefties. Here’s the Mets other OF options against righties (Granderson is above)
Yoenis Cespedes .277/.317/.478
Michael Conforto .206/.317/.382 (SSS)
Juan Lagares .253/.285/.336
What this tells us, is if Cuddyer is healthy, he needs to play everyday. I think it would be wise to ease him back, but I would not limit him to a strict platoon. This means, on offense alone, the OF against righties should be: Cuddyer LF, Cespedes CF, Granderson RF. Again, this indicates Conforto should be demoted.
If Cuddyer’s not healthy, then the Mets need to figure something out with Granderson in RF. He did come through the past few nights against a lefty, but that was more about the reliever than him.
I hope Cuddyer’s really healthy because he’ll be a huge boost to the offense as he was last night. If not, he should be Granderson’s caddy against lefties.
Right now, with all of these interchangeable parts, Collins has to earn his money by putting the best team on the field. He can’t gamble because there is so much to lose right now. If Cuddyer’s healthy, a lot of the risk is removed and it makes Collins’ job a lot easier. It also makes the Mets a better team.
Befote tonight, even though Mets starters have thrown more innings than any other team, and yet, have no complete games to show for it. So much for innings limits, huh?
Tonight, Matt Harvey was yet again the real Matt Harvey. He could’ve gone for the complete game after having thrown only 97 pitches over eight innings. All night, there was only one hard hit ball against him. He had a 1-0 lead. He was lifted for Curtis Granderson.
Granderson made Terry Collins looke good by drawing a bases loaded walk off of Boone Logan. Juan Lagares, who was seemingly stranded on base in every inning, followed Granderson with a two RBI double expanding the lead to 4-0.
There were other highlights tonight other than Harvey. Lagares had a great game going 3-5 with two doubles and two RBIs. Michael Cuddyer‘s knee looked healthy scoring a run from second on Ruben Tejada‘s sixth inning RBI single. He also had an eighth inning stolen base. He also looked alright in the OF.
There was some bad news. First, Lucas Duda missed the game with a stiff back. Second, Michael Conforto sat showing Collins’ is going to platoon him (exactly why he should’ve been sent down).
On another note: over the years, Mets fans have been hard on Collins. Much of it was justified. However, he was never as bad as Walt Weiss has been these past two games.
Earlier in the game, he ordered Tejada be intentionally walked to bring up Harvey. In the sixth, with the game getting tighter, he had Chris Rusin try to pitch around him. Tejada was wise to him and knocked the go-ahead run to the right side. Also, in two straight games, he got stuck with Logan against a RHB. It didn’t burn him last night, but it did burn him tonight.
Anyway, tonight was about Harvey, who is still getting better. That’s scary. On a personal note, I’d like to thank him for capping off a wonderful birthday with a tremendous pitching performance and a win.