I’m sure I’m not breaking any new ground when I say the Mets are not going to re-sign Daniel Murphy. However, it wasn’t until I read the tea leaves that I lost hope.
Look who the Mets have interest in signing as free agents:
My sense of the free agent CF types who are on the Mets’ radar at this point: Span, Fowler, Parra.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
They’re going after two left-handed and one switch hitting CF. Sure, it’s an indictment on how the Mets feel about Juan Lagares because you can’t expect these players to all of a sudden sign on to become a platoon player. It’s also a sign the Mets are not re-signing Murphy.
When and if the Mets lose Murphy, they’re losing a left-handed second baseman and presumably replacing him with one of two right-handed bats: Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores. This will make the Mets lineup right handed dominant with only three lefty hitters. This takes away the L-R-L switching in the lineup that Terry Collibs likes to do.
To keep the L-R-L in place the simple solution would be to keep Murphy. He’s seeking comparable money to the free agent CF. He’s insurance against David Wright breaking down, Lucas Duda slumping, Herrera not being ready, and/or Ruben Tejada being physically ready and able to play shortstop.
No, the Mets have announced they want to go with a left-handed CF. That’s how they’ll keep the L-R-L in the lineup. Things could change, but I doubt it. It’s a shame because Murphy was a good Met and the CF options aren’t that great.
So I will begin to make my piece with Murphy going to another team. I wish him the best.
The free agent market is thin, but there are players out there who could help the Mets. One player who is out there that will not help the Mets is Denard Span.
Look, Span can still handle the bat. The last two years were his best in terms of OBP. These past two years, he’s had two of his three best batting average and slugging percentage seasons. You know what else happened over the past two years:
- He got older;
- He’s become injury prone; and
- He can’t play CF anymore.
Over the past year, he’s had three surgeries. The last one was to fix a torn labrum in his hip. Span will require 4-6 months of rehab meaning he won’t be ready to resume baseball activities until March. He will be 32 going on 40 to begin the 2016 season. He’s predicted to receive a 3 year $36 million deal in free agency.
Putting his injuries aside, he’s not worth that. Span puts up good CF numbers offensively, but he can’t play CF anymore. In 2013, he had the best defensive year of his career with a UZR of 10.2. That is great range. After that, the aforementioned surgeries started, and he hasn’t been the same player in the field.
In 2014, his UZR was -4.7. In 2015, it dipped even lower to -4.9. Both numbers rate him as being a bad defensive CF. A down year is a blip. Two straight down years is a trend. Two straight down years with hip surgery is cause for alarm. Reality is Span WAS a good CF. Now, he’s not.
I keep hearing that Span is a good risk. Why? It’s not like you’re signing a player off a down year. You’re signing a player off two consecutive down defensive years, with three surgeries, and you get the privilege of paying him $12 million a year to find out if he can turn it around.
And note, Span has been an everyday player his entire career. He’s not coming to the Mets to platoon with Juan Lagares. The Mets are not giving a player $30+ million to platoon with Lagares. If you’re signing Span, it’s to be the everyday CF.
No thank you. I’d rather see if the Mets injured 27 year old incumbent CF can do the job. I’d rather let Juan Lagares get healthy and get a chance to re-establish himself. He’s got a Gold Glove. He’s got time to work with Kevin Long. He’s got promise.
Span? He’s done. At least as a CF. If I’m taking a risk on an injured player, I’m taking the risk on the player five years younger with a good hip. I’m going with the player who played his best baseball in the postseason.
It’s still might be possible to upgrade CF. Denard Span is not that upgrade.
Judging from what I’ve read, the Mets seem most interested in adding a CF in free agency. However, what I mostly see is the Mets are interested in lefty bats:
My sense of the free agent CF types who are on the Mets’ radar at this point: Span, Fowler, Parra.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, and Dexter Fowler are everyday players. They’ve been everyday players for several years. They’re expected to receive 3+ year contracts for $8 – 13.8 million a year. There should be a reasonable market for these players meaning they’ll have an option to go where they want to go.
This means they won’t go to the Mets, at least not as a platoon player. Therefore, if any of these players comes to the Mets it will mean they have assurances that they’ll be the everyday CF. They should make them the everyday CF if the Mets are going to spend what’s necessary to bring them into the fold.
So if the Mets sign a CF, it means the Mets have moved on from Juan Lagares. I’m not sure it’s a wise move. Not just yet (even if I think Fowler gives them the best chance to win). He’s a year removed from a Gold Glove season. He’s got an elbow injury that just requires rest. Isn’t it the best case scenario for everyone that Lagares is the everyday CF. After partly losing a World Series due to defense, why downgrade the place where you’re best defensively?
So, while I’m hopeful the Mets will make improvements, I’m not sure it’ll be in CF. This means Lagares will receive one last chance to be an everyday player. I hope he rewards the Mets for their confidence in him. Otherwise, the Mets will bring someone else to do the job.
This will be a big year for both the Mets and Lagares. I’m hoping Lagares will be a part of the Mets plans.
There’s no nice way to put it. Juan Lagares did not have a good 2015. He took a step back offensively and defensively. He basically forced the Mets to go out and get Yoenis Cespedes and play him out of position.
The Mets made it work in July and August. However, when you play with fire you eventually get burned, and the Mets got burned in the World Series. It showed the need to have an actual centerfielder in centerfield. On the flip side, Lagares started to play much better in the postseason, even if he wasn’t all the way back defensively.
The Mets now have two options. They can go with Lagares or they can go out and sign someone. The argument for Lagares is:
- He was injured and may be better with an offseason to heal;
- Even in a down year, he was an above average defensive centerfielder; and
- He will have more time to work with Kevin Long to get better at the plate.
The argument against Lagares was he regressed in every way possible. He had real platoon splits, and if you can’t hit righties, you can’t play everyday in the majors. Also, this is a championship contending team. You need to be ready to compete day one, especially when you’ve lost your two biggest trade chips on rental players.
The cheapest option, and possibly the best, is to carry Kirk Nieuwenhuis as your 4th outfielder. After an abysmal 2015, he will be cheap. He’s also an every other year player:
- 2012 – .252/.315/.376
- 2013 – .189/.278/.337
- 2014 – .259/.346/.482
- 2015 – .195/.270/.375
Sometimes things don’t make sense. That goes doubly for every other year players, but it seems to be a thing. If it continues, Nieuwenhuis is primed to be better in 2016, which would be good news.
For all his faults, Nieuwenhuis is a useful player. He can play all three OF positions. He’s got some pop in his bat and some speed. Looking over his UZR, he grades out as average at all three positions (making him a much better CF than Cespedes). That’s important because very few big league teams carry a legitimate CF on the bench.
It’s important because if Lagares can’t hit righties again, the Mets need to figure something out quickly. We saw the platoon work in 2015, and it should in 2016:
- Lagares vs. Lefties – .279/.325/.427
- Nieuwenhuis vs. Righties – .245/.314/.423
The numbers aren’t tremendous, but keep in mind this comes with good to great defense. It also comes with a presumably improving Lagares and the good year Nieuwenhuis. Also, this is going to presumably come from the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup.
If the Mets don’t like these numbers, they have a baseline for external options. Right now, here are the free agent centerfielders:
- Rajai Davis career .269/.316/.387 hitter with a 3.4 UZR last year
- Dexter Fowler career .267/.363/.418 hitter with a -1.7 UZR last year
- Austin Jackson career .272/.333/.399 with a 7.5 UZR last year
- Justin Maxwell career .220/.303/.399 with a -1.6 UZR last year
- Colby Rasmus career .245/.313/.443 hitter with a 2.1 UZR last year
- Shane Robinson career .237/.302/.313 hitter with a 0.9 UZR last year
- Denard Span career .287/.352/.395 with a -4.9 UZR last year
- Drew Stubbs career .244/.313/.395 with a -0.2 UZR last year
Looking over the list, the only players that could be an improvement are Fowler, Jackson, or Span. I’ll address them in reverse order.
Span is the best offensive player of the group and could leadoff. He is projected to receive a three year $36 million offer. It’s 50/50 if he’ll receive a qualifying offer. However, in a large outfield, it is not wise to go with a centerfielder with poor range. He’s a definite no if he gets a qualifying offer. You do not want the Nationals getting your first round pick.
Jackson is the best defensive player. He is projected to receive a three year $30 million contract, but he probably won’t receive a qualifying offer. However, isn’t he essentially an older, more expensive Lagares? I’m not sure this is the way to go.
That leaves Fowler. The benefit of Fowler is he’s a switch hitting leadoff hitter. He’s in the middle of his prime. He just played well for a playoff team, even if he did not have a good postseason. He will receive a qualifying offer, and he’s projected to get a 4 year $56 million contract.
There’s no doubt in my mind Fowler would improve this team. Realistically, the Mets should be able to get him and re-sign Daniel Murphy, who is projected to receive 4 year $48 million contract. To put it in perspective, Fowler and Murphy are worth a combined $26 million a year or just $4 million more than what Cespedes is slated to receive. If the Mets have money, this is the way to go.
However, my Fowler/Murphy choice presumes they can sign them and give arbitration raises to everyone. If Fowler or Murphy prevents you from signing one pitcher, you go with Lagares. I’d be comfortable going that way.
Ultimately, centerfield is one of the positions the Mets can improve easily in 2016. If the Mets can’t bring in Fowler, they’ll need it to come from Lagares.
Goumg into last year, the Mets thought they had sufficiently addressed the offense by signing Michael Cuddyer to play LF and John Mayberry, Jr. to bat against lefties and pinch hit.
Well Mayberry was so bad he was released, and Cuddyer had a disappointing season even before the knee injury. Cuddyer hit .259/.309/.391 this year. He looked old and slow during the postseason. He will enter the 2016 as a $12.5 million bench player. Just keep that in mind as you watch the Mets moves this offseason.
The reason Cuddyer will be a bench player is Michael Conforto. Due to Cuddyer’s knee injury and a historicall inept offense, Conforto was called up to the majors from AA in late July. He would play in 56 games hitting .270/.335/.506 with 14 doubles, 9 homers, and 26 RBIs. Also, he was much better than advertised defensively:
In the limited time Conforto was with the Mets, his UZR was 7.5, which means he is an above average to great defensive left fielder. As he learns the position, he could one day compete for a Gold Glove. With an accurate arm like his, he may very well replace Curtis Granderson in a few years.
At the plate, we saw the promise he has, and how he’s delivering on that promise. This upcoming year, the Mets will make him an everyday player and not just a platoon player. He’s shown he can handle lefties and righties in the minors. We saw him do it in the World Series:
All postseason he took good at bats even if the results weren’t there. He did have three homeruns. One was in his first postseason at bat against Zack Greinke of all people.
Conforto has what it takes to be just not just a great hitter but a great overall player. If you had Conforto for the whole year, his numbers would’ve averaged out to .270/.335/.506 with 41 doubles, 26 homers, and 75 RBI. Those are All Star numbers. If Conforto improves just a little next year, he will be a star in this league. He will be the best player on the Mets.
He’s the reason no matter what the Mets do in the offseason, the biggest upgrade they make is in left field.
In June if you told Mets fans Ben Zobrist would be traded, and his new team would make the World Series, they would’ve been excited. At one point, it seemed a foregone conclusion Zobrist would be a Met. Thankfully, that deal fell apart, and the Mets made better trades that provided the Mets with better talent and depth.
In any event, Zobrist became a Royal for a hefty price. It’s no surprise the Royals were going for it after losing the World Series last year by 90 feet. Since this trade, Zobrist has played LF and 2B for the Royals. As a Royal, he has hit .284/.364/.453. These are good numbers, but the Mets were better off without Zobrist.
If he played second base, he would have surplanted Daniel Murphy at second base. That would’ve mean no #Murphtober, and quite possibly, the Mets lose the NLDS.
If the Mets moved him to LF, that probably would’ve meant no Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes was an immediate spark plug after the trade. He was so good early on, there was talk of him becoming the NL MVP. The Mets went on 37-22 after the trade, which is a .627 winning percentage or a 102-60 pace.
Zobrist in LF also would’ve meant no Michael Conforto. He made the jump from A ball to the majors. He hit .270/.335/.506. He was much better than advertised defensively. He had good range with a strong, accurate arm. He’s got a bit of the clutch gene homering in his first postseason game off of Zack Greinke.
Also, you don’t know what the A’s were asking for Zobrist. Some of the other deals that took place may not have happened. One of the strengths of the Mets have bee a deep bench giving Terry Collins the ability to platoon.
There was a time if Mets fans had heard Zobrist was traded in season and helped his new team into the World Series, they would’ve been giddy. It was largely assumed he would wind up with the Mets. He didn’t.
Because of that, both the Mets and the Royals made the World Series.
With the Mets floundering offensively earlier in the season, we were repeatedly told by the front office Michael Conforto wasn’t ready. Then Michael Cuddyer got hurt. Finally, the Mets had no choice but to call up Conforto. The Mets couldn’t send him back down.
It turns out Conforto was ready, and he was better than advertised. In his rookie season, he hit .270/.335/.506 with 14 doubles, nine homeruns, and 26 RBIs. We were told he was weak defensively, but that turned out to be wrong:
The Mets entered the playoffs facing a number of lefties in the NLDS. He sat in Game One against Clayton Kershaw because this year he is a platoon player. He finally got to play in Game Two, and he gets to face Zack Greinke, who is a Cy Young candidate. No problem:
Last night, he comes up in a big spot and strikes out:
Even when he strikes out something good happens. Turns out he was ready. Turns out he was better than we thought. Right now, he can do no wrong.
There has been understandable handwringing over the Mets refusal to play Michael Conforto against lefties. THE handwringing turned into a public outcry after Michael Cuddyer‘s awful game in LF in Game One of the NLDS.
Instead of switching to Conforto against lefties, the Mets went to Juan Lagares. Lagares was the 2014 Gold Glove winner. He was once thought to be the leadoff hitter this year. However, he was injured and underperformed. At the trade deadline, the Mets sought out a CF and landed on Yoenis Cespedes. It made Lagares a platoon player only batting against LHP.
After Game One of the NLDS, he returned to that role starting in Games Three and Five. In the NLDS, he hit .429/.500/.714. He had three runs, two doubles, and a walk. Last night against Jon Lester, he went 2-3 with two runs and a stolen base. In some ways, he’s been the Mets best offensive player not named Daniel Murphy.
In particular last night, he showed us why Collins once thought of him as a leadoff hitter. He started off the inning with a single and moved to second on a sac bunt. He then watched Lester and was timing his jump. You could see from the seats he was itching to run. He took off and stole third. He then scored on Curtis Granderson‘s sac fly. Lagares manufactured that run with his legs.
He’s finally showing us why everyone thought he had all of this offensive potential. He’s doing it in the most important time of the year. Even with last night’s misplay, he’s still been a great defensive player. He’s finally putting it all together. You wouldn’t know it because he’s been overshadowed by great pitching and Daniel Murphy.
He’s quietly having a great postseason.
I’m sure you’ll hear several times over the next week that the Mets are 0-7 against the Cubs. It’s not indicative of what will happen in the NLCS.
First off, the 1988 Mets beat the Dodgers 10 out of 11 times. Secondly, this is a completely different Mets team. Here is a breakdown of the players who have played against the Cubs this year:
Juan Lagares 1-9 with 1 BB, 1 double, 2Ks
John Mayberry, Jr. 2-12 with 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 K
Daniel Murphy 9-25 with 1 BB, 3 doubles
Michael Cuddyer 2-17 with 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K
Lucas Duda 7-25 with 3 R, 2 BB, 2 RBI, 3 HBP, 1 double, 1 HR, 12 K
Wilmer Flores 4-23 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Kevin Plawecki 3-17 with 2 RBI, 4 K
Curtis Granderson 5-24 with 3 BBs, 2 RBI, 1 double, 6 K
Dilson Herrera 2-11 with 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
Ruben Tejada 1-18 with 1 BB, 8 K
Johnny Monell 1-8 with 4 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0-7 with 2 K
Anthony Recker 2-4 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR, 2 K
Darrell Ceciliani 1-7 with 3 K
Eric Campbell 0-3 with 1 BB, 1 K
Overall, the Mets had a combined 70 ABs from players not on the playoff roster. They went 9-70 against the Cubs this year. There were an additional 50 ABs from players on the playoff roster, who are either on the bench or are platoon players. Those players went 6-50. Of a total of 171 ABs, 120 of them went to players who will not be in the starting lineup in the NLCS. Therefore, how can you glean anything from these games.
As you may notice, there are no ABs from David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, or Travis d’Arnaud. That’s half of the position players in the current Mets starting lineup. This is more than enough to turn an 0-7 deficit to a winning record.
I’m confident the Mets changes will be enough to make it to the World Series.
An unfortunate part of Mets history is Willie Mays falling down in the outfield during the 1973 World Series. It was a sign Mays was done in his last season.
Michael Cuddyer had a similar experience last night. He misplayed two potential flyball outs into doubles. He struck out on a pitch that almost bounced in the grass in front of home plate. It was an ugly game for him. Fortunately, his teammates bailed him out. He would come out in the seventh for defense. His nightmare game ended.
It also may have ended his chances to be a starting outfielder in this series. His only chance was to be the right handed bat in a LF platoon with Michael Conforto. After last night, I’m assuming Cuddyer stays on the bench against lefties, and Juan Lagares starts in center. Since Lucas Duda was in the lineup against Clayton Kershaw, he’s not sitting against lefties in the playoffs.
Cuddyer has excelled in that role. It’s where he’s needed right now. Cuddyer didn’t cost the Mets on Friday, but if he keeps getting on the field, he eventually will hurt them. However, Cuddyer is still a big asset as a PH and a mentor. He could still get some playing time in a double switch.
Cuddyer is still a big part of this team. I look forward to him getting a big pinch hit this postseason to prove it.