Hot Stove
With the Mets on the verge of losing Daniel Murphy, there’s a lot of holes left behind: (1) a middle infielder; (2) a left handed bat; and a (3) middle of the order bat. With prospects like Dilson Herrera, you’d prefer the player to be on a short term basis.
Right now the Pirates are shopping a player that fits this mold: the switch-hitting Neil Walker. He’s a career .272/.338/.431. He has an OPS+ of 113. He has a career WAR of 16.4 or an average WAR of 2.3 per season. His wRC+ is 114. Long story short, he’s an above average baseball player. It makes you question why the Pirates are shopping the hometown kid?
Well, there’s two issues. The first is he’s not a good defensive second baseman. While he may be a better hitter than Murphy, he’s a worse fielder. Walker has averaged a -5.3 UZR, which means he’s definitively below average at the position. He’s also not getting any better posting consecutive -6.8 seasons.
After this the bigger issue is money, which is the same reason the Pirates are shopping him. He’s due to earn $10.7 million next year. He will be a free agent after the year. On top of that, you need to trade for him.
If the Mets interest in Ben Zobrist is real, they can afford Walker for a year. If the Pirates are reasonable, the Mets should trade for him. He will fit many needs, and he won’t block the path of the Mets prospects. Who knows? If he has a good year, the Mets could offer him a Qualifying Offer and met another draft pick thereby offsetting some of the cost it took to acquire him.
Overall, Neil Walker would be a good fit for the Mets no matter how unrealistic the possibility of his addition may be.
The facts are the facts. Eric Campbell is just not a very good Major League Baseball player. With that said, I’m alright with the Mets keeping him on the 40 man roster.
Over the past two seasons, the 28 year old Campbell has played 156 games. In those games, he has played every defensive position except centerfield and catcher, and he’s trying to become an emergency catcher. For a part time basis, he’s passable to barely passable at each of these positions. While he’s not great at any position, you can put him in for one game and feel like he’s not going to cost you a game.
Offensively, he’s hit .231/.317/.328. Not that good. His OPS+ is 84, which means he’s not a league average hitter. Looking at his wRC+, he’s at 88, which again means he’s below average. Add all this up, and he’s got a -0.1 career WAR again meaning he’s a below average player. Now that I’m done confirming everything you know about him to be true, here’s some additional information you may not have considered.
Campbell is actually a good pinch hitter. For his career, Campbell has had 54 plate appearances hitting .293/.426/.390. Remember that earlier this year, he had a key go-ahead pinch hit that helped the Mets win a game. He hits the ball hard (statistically speaking). He ran into some bad luck last year with a BABIP of .230, which suggests he hit into a lot of hard luck last year. If those base hits start falling in, his 2015 season looks much better. With BABIP typical being .300, you can expect that better outcome next year.
With all that said, Campbell was left off the roster for both Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. With the Mets, Johnson hit .250/.304/.414. His OPS+ was 99. His WAR was 0.3. His wRC+ was an 87. As a pinch hitter, he’s hit .209/.341/.309. This makes him a very average baseball player.
On the other hand, Juan Uribe hit .219/.301/.430 for the Mets. His OPS+ was 102. His wRC+ was a mere 104. His WAR was 108. However, unlike Johnson and Campbell, he really only plays third now. He did begrudgingly play some second, and he was uncomfortable playing first.
Campbell will most likely be paid something in the vicinity of $500,000 to $600,000. Johnson was just paid $1.5 million next year. I’m presuming Uribevwould fetch around the same amount now. For a bench player who is expected to pinch hit and be versatile, is Johnson really that much better than Campbell? Would you want a bench player who has little to no versatility like Uribe? Are Johnson and Uribe a million dollars or more better than Campbell? I’d argue no.
Even if you believe they are, that’s a reason you sign them to be a utility players on the major league 25 man roster. Campbell is going to be on the 40 man roster being stashed away in the minors in case of an injury. Overall, despite fans ire, Campbell has real value to this Mets team, and he has earned his spot on the 40 man roster.
Does that mean you put yourselves in a position to lose a potential star in the Rule 5 draft to keep Campbell? Of course not. A million times no. However, before getting upset about Campbell consider the following:
- The Mets still have one extra spot on the 40 man roster;
- Ruben Tejada is rumored to be a non-tendered candidate, but the Mets will keep him waste a spot on the 40 man roster; and
- There are other players like Darrell Ceciliani who are much worse than Campbell taking up roster spots.
So, yes, Campbell is a flawed player. That’s why he’s a minor league depth player. It’s why he’s a bench player at best. However, he’s not the worst player on the 40 man roster, and he’s not the reason that the Mets may lose Wuilmer Becerra and Matt Bowman in the Rule 5 draft.
The reason is because the Mets chose to gamble by exposing them or by keeping worse players like Ceciliani on the roster. Campbell has earned his spot on this roster and may yet help the Mets in 2016.
Yesterday, the Mets made their additions to the 40 man roster to protect their prospects from the Rule 5 draft. I can understand only having 39 players on the roster because if there’s a player available, you want the roster space to select that player. If you’re roster is at 40, you’re not permitted to make a Rule 5 draft selection.
What I can’t understand is if the Mets lose a prospect and non-tender Ruben Tejada later. The rumors have been circling the Mets want to non-tender Tejada because he’s too expensive. That merits its own separate argument (it’s a dumb move). I only bring it up here because if you know you’re not keeping him, why let him stand in the way of keeping a prospect?
For me personally, there were two players who were non-tendered that jumped right out: Wuilmer Becerra and Matt Bowman. Now, there are legitimate reasons to expose these players to the Rule 5 draft. Becerra has never played above A ball and is really two plus years away from being able to play in the majors. Bowman had a horrific year last year.
I also suspect both will be taken in the Rule 5 draft. They both could return to the Mets. However, if a team like the Braves picks them up, they’ll probably stay there all year as the Braves seem to be renting the 2015 Mets June offense. If either of these players are taken the Mets made a critical and unacceptable mistake.
Essentially, they’re sacrificing players for no good reason. If you’re non-tendering Tejada, do it now. Protect another player from the Rule 5 draft. Why let Tejada stand in the way of the Mets keeping Becerra who could be a fixture in the Mets outfield for years to come? Why let Tejada stand in the way of Bowman rebounding and becoming a big trade chip and/or a contributed in 2016? If the reports are true about Tejada, the handling of the 40 man roster is just negligent.
The Mets have created a situation where they need to keep Tejada, not just for an option at shortstop, but also as justification for losing two prospects for nothing. If they let Tejada walk, they may lose three players over $3 million. Absurd.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
The first ever draft pick by the Samdy Alderson regime with the Mets was Brandon Nimmo. Today, he should be added to the 40 man roster, and he looks like he will begin the year in AAA.
When the Mets drafted him, they were just drafting on potential. Sure, you could make that argument with any first round pick, but it really applied to Nimmo. He played in Wyoming, a state that produces very few major league players. He showed glimpses of being a give tool player, but in a state like Wyoming, who really knows?
The Mets knew he was a long term project. That’s fine. You draft the best talent. He’s definitely talented. He’s a Top 100 MLB prospect and the Mets number two overall prospect (behind Steven Matz). He’s shown he can handle centerfield everyday. He’s got good speed and a good arm. While he may not have 20 home run power, he’s got a good eye and he’s a contact hitter. In his minor league career, he’s hit .263/.383/.391. After his call-up to AAA last year, he hit .264/.393/418 in 32 games.
It’s possible he gets called up in 2016. It’s even more possible he gets called-up in 2017. Fact is, the sooner he’s ready the better. Right now, the Mets seem to want a platoon bat in CF for Juan Lagares. They deem this such a need they’re talking with players who can’t play the position. Personally, I’d let Kirk Nieuwenhuis be the platoon option until Nimmo is ready. It’s not like Kirk is any worse than the other options. I believe everyone in the Mets organization wants Nimmo to force them to make the decision.
That’s why the clock is ticking. Everyone is waiting for him to take over CF. We’re looking forward to seeing Nimmo and Michael Conforto continue to drive each other to become the best players they can be. If they bring out the best in one another just watch out when they’re reunited in the majors.
I’d like to see Nimmo get his chance. I’d hate to see him blocked by what will be an albatross of a contract. Right now, it’s up to him. Conforto forced his way to the majors. Nimmo has to be the same. He’s now on the 40 man roster, which means there’s one less hurdle.
Soon, it will be Nimmo’s time.
As the Mets are trying to make room on the 40 man roster to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft, there was always going to be a chance they’d expose someone valuable.
During this process, the Mets removed Jack Leathersich from the 40 man roster exposing him to waivers. It was certainly understandable considering he had Tommy John surgery in June meaning he probably won’t be able to pitch next year. It should be noted if the Mets wanted to keep Leathersich, they had to remove him from the 60 day DL and put him on the roster.
Not adding Leathersich back to the 40 man roster was a risk. It was a calculated risk. First, why would another team clog up a spot on the 40 man roster for a LOOGY who won’t pitch next year. Second, if you had him on the team next year, you’d have to put him on the 60 day DL next year. This would mean a higher salary for Leathersich and more MLB service time that the Mets will not benefit the Mets on the field. Finally, the Mets have plenty of bullpen options to get lefties out next year.
Next year, the Mets will have Dario Alvarez ready to go. Josh Smoker was just added to the 40 man roster. Josh Edgin is due to return from his own Tommy John surgery next year. The projected main setup men, Addison Reed and Hansel Robles, get lefties out and do not need a LOOGY to bail them out. This is all before the Mets possibly adding a LOOGY in free agency. Therefore, if you’re opening up a spot on the 40 man roster you look towards the LOOGY that won’t pitch next year. It’s a gamble, but it’s one worth taking.
Unfortunately, the Cubs claimed Learhersich. More power to them if they can carry an injured LOOGY on their 40 man roster for a full season. It wasn’t practical for the Mets to do it. It’s not practical for most teams. Sure, I could point to other players that should be removed, but truth be told they’ll be removed eventually to protect a player from the Rule 5 draft or to make room for a free agent.
The Mets made the right move here. Sometimes even when you make the right move, you’re going to get jacked.
Tomorrow is the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft by adding them to your 40 man roster. If they are not added, another team may select that player and add them to their 40 man roster. To keep that player, the new team must keep the new player in the majors all year. If not, that player must be offered back.
That was the odyssey of Logan Verrett last year. He started out as a Rule 5 pick of the Baltimore Orioles, and his rights would subsequently be picked up by the Texas Rangers. He struggled in his limited time with Texas going 0-1 in four appearances with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.667 WHIP. With the Mets needing relief help at the time, the Mets took him back when he was offered.
It was the best thing that happened to both him and the Mets. Verrett made 10 relief appearances with the Mets. In those appearances, he had a 2.20 ERA and a 0.674 WHIP. Overall, as a reliever, he had a 3.55 ERA and a 1.060 WHIP. Batters were only able to hit .198/.205/.352. This makes him a good reliever, who is all the more valuable when everyone else is out of reach.
He has increased value because he’s an effective spot starter. When he was making spot starts giving the starters test before the postseason, he went 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.030 WHIP. Batters only hit .208/.291/.338 against him. He was extremely valuable as a Met last year. He came back at the right time.
So for every Brad Emaus, there’s a Verrett who is able to contribute. It sometimes shows the best way to help your roster is to properly value what you have in house. That doesn’t mean you thrust players like Dilson Herrera out there before they’re ready. It means you properly value and protect your assets.
Verrett has deserved consideration for the major league roster in 2016. He’s also showed the players that got you there last year also deserve to be kept around to make another run next year.
MLB Trade Rumors updated where the Mets are this offseason. Unsurprisingly, the prognosis isn’t good. Despite the overtures that increased attendance will mean increased payroll, it appears the Mets won’t make good on that promise.
In the post, it discussed how the Msts appear unwilling to make the type of contract it would take to sign the following players:
The Mets just came off of an NL Pennant. There’s more money. There are holes in this roster. Instead of filling the holes, the Mets are creating new ones. It’s making an already frustrating offseason even more so.
If the Mets choose not to spend any money on these players, who are they going to pursue? Jason Heyward? Not likely. Instead the Mets will turn to the likes of Dilson Herrera, Matt Reynolds, and whatever other cheap players they could acquire. This is what the Mets seem to believe is the appropriate course.
By not negotiating with Murphy inseason, the Mets have put themselves in the predicament of having to overpay for a player. They didn’t mind it last year with Michael Cuddyer. However, now it’s a problem with Murphy and Tejada. It’s a problem with two players that helped bring you to the postseason and the World Series. I’m still perplexed this team isn’t going to spend to try to bring this team right back to the World Series.
I guess that just means all Mets fans are Charlie Brown and the Mets are like Lucy. They give us hope and taking it away laughing. We’re just flat on our backs looking like idiots.
Since Sandy Alderson has become the Mets General Manager, he has shown two weaknesses: (1) building a bench; and (2) building a bullpen.
The main reason for the bench issue is he doesn’t value what he has. A few years ago, he non-tendered a quality bench player in Justin Turner. Now, it appears the Mets will make the same mistake again with Ruben Tejada. The reason? Well essentially it boils down to the possibility Tejada may receive a raise in arbitration of about $1.2 million meaning he would earn around $3 million next year.
It’s penny wise, pound foolish. Tejada has his flaws, but he’s a capable bench piece. He can play a reasonable shortstop for one to two games at a clip. His bat isn’t awful. If his broken leg proves to be too much, the Mets could cut him before the season begins and only owe him 30-45 days worth of salary.
Remember, Mets fans were told that if we came out to the ballpark, the team would spend. Mets fans came to the park in 2015. Ticket prices are going up in 2016. There really isn’t a better option than Tejada in the trade market. Is this team really going to let $1 million stand in the way of building a credible major league bench?
The Mets should think about it this way. They paid John Mayberry, Jr. $1.45 million to hit .164/.227/.318 in 59 games. Wouldn’t the Mets be better served by giving Tejada that money to hit .261/.338/.350 in 116 games. Isn’t it better to keep Tejada around if he can’t be a free agent until 2018? Are we really to believe this money is what is going to stand between the Mets getting that one key player?
If $1 million stands in the way of anything, this team isn’t serious about adding payroll or competing. Yet again, they will not be serious about building a competent major league bench. This just exposes Sandy’s biggest weakness. It’s not just the ability to build a bench.
It’s the payroll given to him year in and year out to build a contender.