Wilmer Flores
There appears to be two types of Mets fans: (1) those who love Daniel Murphy; and (2) those who don’t. I’m in the former camp. Gary Cohen is in the latter (full audio).
Now, it is way too early to do a postmortem on the Mets season. It’s too early. There’s still an important Game 5. However, I can’t fault Joe & Evan for addressing the topic with Gary Cohen. You don’t get him everyday, so when you get him, you want to address everything with him. That includes addressing the free agency situations of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy.
I don’t disagree with Gary regarding how the Mets will treat the Cespedes and Murphy situations. I agree that neither one will be back. Where I disagree with Gary is his statements about Murphy.
First, he called Murphy a “net negative.” Frankly, that’s nonsense. I understand Murphy’s flaws. He’s not a high .OBP guy. He sometimes makes curious fielding and baserunning mistakes. However, calling Murphy a net negative is a gross overstatement.
If you’re using WAR, he’s generally been between a 2.5 – 3.1 player, which means he’s a solid starter. That’s nothing to sneeze at. If you’re using weighted runs created, or wRC+, his range is between 107-126 in the years he’s been a starter meaning he’s an above average player. Basically, Murphy’s a good player; not a “net negative.”
My other dispute with Gary is that Wilmer Flores and/or Dilson Herrera can take Murphy’s spot. First of all neither of them is the hitter Murphy is now. Murphy is a career .288/.331/.424 hitter. This year he hit .281/.322/.449. This year Flores hit .263/.295/.408, and Herrera hit .211/.311/.367. These two are young (22 and 20 respectively) with potential, but they’re not in Murphy’s league as a hitter yet.
This is a playoff team now. Next year regardless of their free agency maneuvers, they will be a possible contending team with their pitching staff. It would be better to have some proven hitters like Murphy. It would also be nice to have Murphy as an insurance policy.
This year the SS situation was never fully resolved. It seemed like Ruben Tejada finally wrestled the position away until Chase Utley‘s dirty “slide.” It’s the second time he’s broken his right leg. Flores may be forced to play more SS than anyone would like next year.
Also, who knows about David Wright? The Mets want to limit him to four games in a row. That means you need someone capable of playing third base on a semi-regular basis. It would be preferable to have someone like Murphy who can move other there and competently play the position.
That doesn’t mean I think the Mets should give Murphy a huge free agent deal. Rather, I would start by offering him the $15.8 million qualifying offer. If he accepts it, great. You have him for one year while you wait for Herrera to develop and you find out about Wright’s back over a 162 game season. It’s an expensive insurance policy, but it may be a necessary one.
If he rejects it, you at least get a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere. Alternatively, it will limit is market allowing the Mets to negotiate with him on their terms. With all that said, I don’t want to be talking about this. I want to talk about his two homeruns this postseason. I want to talk about Game Five. I want to be talking about the NLCS.
So, let’s focus on what’s important here. That’s Game Five. The only Murphy discussion now should be how he can help the Mets win that game.
Mets fans had every reason to be pumped before the game. The fans came and they brought it tonight:
UTLEY SUCKS. #LGM pic.twitter.com/6tRWVQza5N
— In Mets We Trust (@InMetsWeTrust) October 13, 2015
From the first pitch to the last pitch, the crowd was amazing. I loved the Mets pausing introductions when Utley was introduced to prolong the booing. This is what happens when the Mets haven’t been in the playoffs for nine years. It’s what happens when Chase Utley injures Ruben Tejada on a dirty slide. It’s what happens when Matt Harvey finally gets to start in October.
After a smooth first, Harvey got into some trouble in the second. There were three soft singles, and Terry Collins brought in the corners with bases loaded and no out. Why? No one knows. In any event, Yasmani Grandal hit an RBI single to right. If the infielders were properly positioned, it would’ve been a 3-6-3 double play. Because they weren’t, it was a single.
The bases would clear on the single after a Curtis Granderson throwing error. It was 3-0 with a runner on second. Harvey struggled from that point forward, but he kept the Dodgers at bay. His final line was five innings, seven hits, three runs, two earned, two walks, and seven strikeouts. He kept the Mets in the game, and he gave them a chance to win.
The Mets seized that opportunity. Everyone reached base at least once. Travis d’Arnaud got the Mets on the board with an RBI single in the bottom of the second. The Mets loaded the bases and Curtis Granderson came up to the plate. He hit a double off the wall clearing the bases giving the Mets a 4-3 lead.
d’Arnaud would expand the lead with a third inning two run homer. The Mets would put the game away with a six run fourth capped by a massive three run Yoenis Cespedes homerun:
Mets fan @NYSportzNut is in Section 334 at Citi Field and captured Yoenis Cespedes' home run on video. Wait for it. http://t.co/ZI2x7XHgRj
— Eli Langer (@EliLanger) October 13, 2015
It’s officially Yotober.
In total, the Mets put 14 runs on the board. They were lead by three big bats:
- Granderson 2-5 with two doubles and five RBIs;
- Cespedes 3-5 with three runs, one homerun, and three RBIs; and
- d’Arnaud 3-4 with three runs, one homerun, and three RBIs.
The Mets also got big contributions from Wilmer Flores and Juan Lagares. Flores played well at short, and I’m not grading on a curve. Lagares went 1-3 with three runs, one double, and a walk. Neither player was thought to get any start in this series, and yet, due to extenuating circumstances, they came in and played extremely well.
Essentially, none of the Dodgers played well. Trash talking lefty starter Brett Anderson only pitched three innings allowing seven hits and six earned. The Dodgers bullpen went five innings allowing six hits, seven earned, and, five walks. On top of that the Dodgers and/or Chase Utley were gutless in not putting him in the game. They couldn’t find a spot for him in a 13-7 loss. Pathetic.
The Mets rallied around Ruben Tejada. The only downside was having to use Jeurys Familia after Erik Goeddel allowed three runs and couldn’t record one out.
The Mets are a win away from the NLCS. They’re one win away from exacting revenge on the Dodgers for what Utley did to Tejada. I can’t wait to be there tomorrow. Lets Go Mets!
Let’s be honest. We all knew Ruben Tejada earned the right to be the everyday SS in the playoffs with his incredible second half. However, we all knew deep down that it would come down to Wilmer Flores [standing ovation].
We knew it when he broke down into tears in the field when he thought he was leaving:
We knew it when he came back from that incredibly tough moment to do this:
Through everything that happened his teammates picked him up. With what happened to Tejada, the Mets need him to pick them up. They need his bat. They need his glove.
They need him to be Ruben Tejada.
Fifteen years ago today, I went to my first Mets playoff game. Somehow, even with Mike Piazza injured, the Mets lead the NLDS 2-1. They found themselves in a extra innings looking for just one big hit:
I don’t think there was anyone on the planet who thought Todd Pratt was going to hit a walkoff, series-clinching homerun.
The next year, the NLDS heroes would be Benny Agbayani . . .
. . . and Bobby Jones
Who’s it going to be this year? Could it be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who’s already had a huge pinch hit homerun this year:
How about Wilmer Flores:
Whoever it is, that player is about to forever become a part of Mets lore.
LETS GO METS!
Yesterdsy, I looked at how the Mets fared against Clayton Kershaw. Game Two promises to have its own pitcher’s duel between Zack Greinke and Noah Syndergaard.
That means if the Mets want/need to win Game Two, they will need to get some runs off of Greinke or get into the Dodgers bullpen. With that said, here’s how the Mets have fared against Greinke:
Starting Lineup
Curtis Granderson 10-52 with 2 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, and 11 Ks
David Wright 3-9 with 1 double and 2 Ks
Daniel Murphy 4-13 with 2 BBs and 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 1-5 with 1 BB and 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-12 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BBs, and 4 Ks
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-2 with 1 RBI and 1 K
Ruben Tejada 0-6 with 1 K
Combined 21-99 (.212 BA) with 5 BBs (.274 OBP), 3 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HRs (.343 slugging), 5 RBIs, and 21 Ks
Bench
Kevin Plawecki 2-6 with 1 double and 1 K
Wilmer Flores 3-8 with 1 K
Kelly Johnson 0-9
Michael Cuddyer 10-40 with 1 double, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 2 BBs, 10 Ks
Juan Lagares 1-8 with 1 HR, 3 RBIs, and 1 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-5 with 1 K
Combined 17-76 (.224) with 2 BBs (.244 OBP), 2 doubles, 2 HRs (.329 slugging), 10 RBIs, and 14 Ks
Team Totals 38-175 (.217 BA) with 7 BBs (.241), 5 doubles, 2 triples, 4 HRS (.337 slugging), 15 RBIs, and 35 Ks
Obviously, the .215/.241/.337 line indicates the Mets don’t hit Greinke well, but then again who does? Greinke has limited batters to .187/.231/.276 this year. So, the Mets do hit Greinke than the league as a whole.
This goes especially for the top of the Mets lineup. Granderson, Wright, and Murphy have historically hit Greinke very well. If the Mets want to score runs, it’s going to have to start at the top.
As far as Syndergaard goes, he’s only faced the Dodgers once, and it was at Dodger Stadium. In that game, he pitched six innings allowing two hits, one earned, two walks, and six strikeouts. He got a no decision, but the Mets went on to a 2-1 win. That game was against Kershaw.
Thor is certainly capable of repeating that performance. In his last four starts, he’s had a 2.93 ERA, a 0.651 WHIP, and a 12.0 K/9. In this stretch, he’s limited opposing hitters to .163/.188/.337. He’s the key to everything. He’s primed for this playoff run.
It’s strange to say I’m confident the Mets can pull a game out against Greinke, but Thor gives me that confidence. I can’t wait for him to take the mound Saturday night.
This series comes down to the Mets stud muffins against Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. There could be a lot of 2-1 and 1-0 games. After Kershaw’s last game against the Mets, it’s hard to believe they can even hit him.
However, that game was in July. The Mets clean-up hitter was John Mayberry, Jr. Since that time, the Mets have added Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud, and David Wright to the lineup. Here’s how the current Mets lineup has fared against Kershaw:
Starting Lineup
Curtis Granderson 1-10, 1 BB, 1 K
David Wright 3-14, 1 double, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 2 Ks
Daniel Murphy 3-10 with an RBI
Yoenis Cespedes 0-3
Michael Cuddyer 4-16 with 2 RBIs and 3 Ks
Lucas Duda 1-10 with 1 BB and 7 Ks
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Ruben Tejada 5-14 with 3 BBs and 3 Ks
Combined 17-77 (.220 BA) with 9 BBs (.302 OBP), one double (.234 slugging), 4 RBIs, and 16 Ks
Bench
Wilmer Flores 3-6 with 1 RBI and 1 K
Kelly Johnson 3-15 with 1 HR, 2 RBIs and 5 Ks
Michael Conforto 0-0
Juan Lagares 0-7 with 1 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0-0
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Combined 6-31 (.194 BA & OBP) with a HR (.290 slugging), 3 RBIs, and 7 Ks
Team Totals 23-108 (.213 BA) with 9 BBs (.274 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.250 slugging), 7 RBIs, and 23 Ks.
This season Kershaw allowed batters to hit .194/.237/.284. Therefore, arguably, the Mets as a team have hit Kershaw better than the rest of the league. However, the truth really is Kershaw has dominated the Mets.
Looking over the numbers, the Mets would be best served by sitting Duda, moving Murphy to 1B, and letting Flores play 2B. I’m not sure the Mets will do that. They se inclined to put Duda out there.
This leaves the Mets hoping they can work the count to get to an awful Dodgers bullpen. The other Hope is Kershaw reverts to being a bad playoff pitcher. Kershaw is 1-5 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP.
Either way, the Mets have as good a chance as anyone to beat Kershaw.
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.