Wilmer Flores
The Mets have many tough offseason decisions to make. Right now the most pressing decision is Daniel Murphy. The Mets have until Friday to offer Murphy a qualifying offer of a one year $15.8 million offer.
In my opinion, the Mets need to offer Murphy the qualifying offer. The worst case scenario is Murphy accepts the deal. Yes, you could argue he’s not worth $15.8 million. However, it’s a slight one-year overpay considering he was projected to receive a 4 year $52 million contract ($13 million a year). That was before his huge postseason. In any event, it seems the Mets will extend the offer.
Based upon the prospective offers Murpy will receiving, he’s likely to reject the qualifying offer. If so, and Murphy signs elsewhere, the Mets get another team’s first round pick (top 10 protected). If and when he rejects it, things will begin to get interesting because the Mets need to make a tough decision. Do you re-sign Murphy?
If he departs, Murphy will be leaving a sizeable gap behind him. He was the number three hitter on a pennant winner. On a high strikeout team, he is a contact hitter. His power has increased while working with Kevin Long.
Murphy is also the starting second baseman. Now, second is a position where the Mets may have options. The first option is the 21 year old Dilson Herrera. Reading all the scouting reports, he’s a younger Murphy with potential to be more. Herrera has hit at every level. He has more speed. He is raw defensively and has the tools be be good at second, but right now he isn’t.
Now, Herrera struggled during his call-up this year. He hit .211/.311/.367. It doesn’t mean he won’t eventually hit at the big league level. It may just mean it was a short sample size or he’s not ready. In the event he’s not ready, the Mets could elect to shift Wilmer Flores from SS to 2B.
For his career, Murphy has hit .288/.331/.424. His UZR at second was -1.3, which was by far his best year. In the two years prior, he was around a -5.0 player, which means he’s a below average defensive player, which is a shock to no one.
This past year, his first full season in the majors, Flores hit .265/.302/.425. Overall, Flores is not the hitter Murphy is, even if he shows some promise. His UZR in his limited time at second was 1.7, which means he’s average defensively, better than Murphy, but still average. It also leaves a gap at SS. Flores improved as the year progressed. Additionally, we still don’t know how well Ruben Tejada is going to bounce back.
Despite possibly being the best second base option, the Mets may benefit from his versatility. Murphy can play first and third. With David Wright‘s back, he’s limited. He can’t play more than four games in a row. Also, Lucas Duda is prone to some dry spells. Murphy could offset the gaps created by Wright’s back and Duda’s dry spells.
On the flip side, fellow Mets free agent Kelly Johnson does the same thing. He has the added benefit of playing the corner OF positions. He’s also a left handed bat like Murphy. He’s a .251/.331/.424 hitter, which again is worse than Murphy. However, Johnson is seen as a bench bat that won’t cost much money.
That’s the thing. Johnson is a bench player that won’t cost much money. The Mets should bring him back, but it shouldn’t have any impact upon their Murphy decision.
The main reason I keep thinking that Murphy needs to come back is the fact that the Mets just lost the World Series. They were so close. We know the pitching will be there, and it will be even better. However, the Mets have to keep a competitive offensive team on the field.
We don’t know what the Mets are going to get from Wright over 162 games. Many assume Yoenis Cespedes is all but gone. The Mets will be losing their third and fourth place hitters. Why should anyone expect this team to be any better next year?
There’s not really any upgrades over Murphy on the market. If you won’t spend on Murphy, why are we to believe they’ll sign someone like Ben Zobrist. Yes, Zobrist is the better player now, but he’s going to get a similar contract. Also, he’s five years older than Murphy. Murphy is in his prime. Zobrist is close to retirement.
If someone steps up and offers Murphy a stupid amount of money, you have to let him walk. He’s a nice, not great, player. I’m qualifying a stupid amount as a contract around four years $70 million. Eventually, you’re going to have to pay these pitchers, and Murphy can’t stand in the way of that.
However, if the market is reasonable, Murphy has to return. Hopefully, the qualifying offer will keep it reasonable. I say hope because the market rarely is. I mean, did you see the contract some team gave Michael Cuddyer last year? That’s the thing. All it takes is one team to do something irrational to turn Murphy into an ex-Met.
I’m hoping it doesn’t happen. Im hoping the Mets have the money. If they don’t, maybe they can offset some of the cost by getting a Chapstick sponsorship deal?
All jokes aside, the Mets need to re-sign Murphy.
Tonight is Halloween, and we’re saying goodbye to the incredible month of Murphtober. If this game goes into the late evening hours, it will be the second time the World Series will go into November (it will anyway).
After Daniel Murphy dominated October, it’s time for a Met to take up the mantle for November. Here are some suggestions:
Curtis Granderson – Grandvember
David Wright – Davember
Daniel Murphy – Murphvember
Yoenis Cespedes – Yovember
Travis d’Arnaud – Travember
Wilmer Flores – Wilvember or Flovember
Juan Lagares & Juan Uribe – Juanvember
Matt Harvey – Harvember
As usual, I’m open to any suggestions you may have.
Lets Go Mets
Remember when #PanicCity was a thing? I do too. It was justified then. When Sandy Alderson bestowed the moniker on Mets fans, here was the previous night’s starting lineup:
- Curtis Granderson
- Ruben Tejada
- Lucas Duda
- Michael Cuddyer
- Wilmer Flores
- Darrell Ceciliani
- Kevin Plawecki
- Jacob deGrom
- Dilson Herrera
Look at that lineup. The number two and five hitters rotate in the eighth spot, at least until Tejada went down. The number three hitter bats fifth. The cleanup hitter is on the bench. The seventh hitter is a backup. The sixth and ninth hitters are not on the playoff roster.
This is a different team than that one. This team was one out away from winning Game One. They had a bad game against an erratic pitcher, who has pitched well against the Mets in the past. Why must it be more than that?
We just watched our young pitchers now down an incredible Cubs offense. We know good pitching beats good hitting. It’s the reason the Mets are in the World Series. This isn’t the same old Mets offense. They can actually hit now.
The Mets are getting a needed day off to collect themselves. They’re going to set things straight. They’re going out tomorrow, and they’re going to play their best game of the year. Then they’ll go out in Game 4 and do the same thing, and so on and so on.
Ya Gotta Believe!
The Royals named Edison Volquez as their Game One starter. The Volquez-Johnny Cueto decision wasn’t like what the Mets faced before in the playoffs. However, it merited consideration, and the Royals went with Volquez.
This year Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.308 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. That’s where the good ends for Volquez. In his career, he is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s been slightly better this postseason going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.1 K/9. In the end, what matters most is how he’s pitched against the Mets:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB and 2 K
Combined 18-99 (.182 BA), 12 BB (.270 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.253 slugging), 11 RBI, and 22 K
Here’s how the bench has fared against Volquez:
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kelly Johnson 4-14 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-0
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench 6-23 (.263) with 3 BB (.346 OBP), 2 double (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, 1 K
In essence, Volquez had pitched well against the Mets. However, the Mets players have gotten to him. When the Mets have made contact, they’ve hit homeruns. It’ll be tough to hit homers in a stadium like Kauffman.
Fortunately, the Mets have better pitching than the Royals. If the Mets pitch how they should, they will need just one of those blasts to win the game, similar to the NLDS.
Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst.
With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings.
Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?
Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K
Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:
Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K
In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:
Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K
Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this? Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow? It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:
March/April .208/.269/.349
May .222/.282/.364
June .235/.298/.367
July .252/.324/.365
August .243/.305/.412
September/October .275/.335/.426
Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will.
Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:
April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0
- Juan Lagares CF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- John Mayberry, Jr. RF
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Dilson Herrera 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Matt Harvey P
July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Ruben Tejada SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Wilmer Flores 2B
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
- Juan Lagares CF
August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Michael Conforto LF
- Bartolo Colon P
September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
October 21, 2015 (estimated)
- Curtis Granderson RF
- David Wright 3B
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Steven Matz P
Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight.
I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series.
Normally, if I said to you there was a run scored on an out, you’d assume a fielder’s choice or a sacrifice fly. You’d see the occasional suicide squeeze. In this strange postseason where you don’t have to touch a base to be safe and Daniel Murphy became Babe Ruth, the Mets scored the go-ahead run on a two out strikeout.
In the sixth, Yoenis Cespedes lead off with a single, and he moved to second on a Lucas Duda sac bunt. I thought he was going for a hit against the shift, but they awarded him with a sac bunt. Cespedes would steal third. Michael Conforto came up with two outs and would strike out:
.@ynscspds and @mconforto8 proved three strikes doesn't necessarily mean you're out: https://t.co/Jj12nYEGnV pic.twitter.com/9jj0tMhPzW
— Cut4 (@Cut4) October 21, 2015
Then the inning got strange. Wilmer Flores went the other way and hit a sinking line drive to right. It went under the glove of Jorge Soler. Conforto was already around third by the time the ball disappeared in the ivy.
The common joke all over the place was Bartolo Colon could’ve scored on the play if he hit it. However, because of ground rules written in 1912, it was ruled a groundrule double. No runs scored. Conforto to third and Flores to second. They would be stranded, but the Mets escaped with a 3-2 lead.
That lead would expand in the seventh. Cespedes knocked in David Wright, who had a great game, with a single off of Kyle Schwarber‘s glove. For the second time this series, Schwarber’s inexperience in the outfield cost the Cubs a run. Later in the inning, Murphy would score on a Duda groundout.
On the mound, Jacob deGrom finally had a good start in Wrigley Field. His final line was 7.0 innings, two earned, one walk, and seven strikeouts. Tyler Clippard held down the eighth, and well Jeurys Familia got the save again.
In other news, we care about from this game, Murphy did this in the third inning:
He’s now the Mets all time and single postseason homerun leader with six. He also tied a major league record by hitting a homerun in five straight postseason games.
Wright was terrific. He went 3-4 with two runs, a walk, and a double. Duda snapped out of his funk a bit by going 1-3 with an RBI and no strikeouts. There something else I’m forgetting.
Oh yeah, after the 5-2 win, the Mets are now one win away from the World Series. I can’t believe it. I can’t wait for tomorrow.
I really thought Matt Harvey was going to pitch a no-hitter. He had the Cubs batters off balance. It seemed he already got his tremendous defensive play with Wilmer Flores leaping to snare a sure to be line drive base hit. He had all the run support he needed from a Daniel Murphy first inning homerun (of course) off of Jon Lester.
Then the fifth inning happened. By the way, the fifth inning is the reason why I think the Mets are going to win the World Series this year.
Harvey started the inning by plunking Anthony Rizzo. He then let up a line drive to Starlin Castro. Immediately off the bat I thought right to Juan Lagares, easy out. Lagares misplayed it into an RBI double. The score was tied 1-1. Then the Javier Baez got the Cubs first true hit off of Harvey:
It was Yoenis Cespedes with the “Throwing Out of Baserunners.” The Cubs rally was over.
The Mets responded in the fifth. Flores and Lagares got basehits. Harvey botched a sac bunt attempt leaving runners on first and second. The Mets were lucky Kris Bryant dropped the ball on what could’ve been an inning ending double play. Curtis Granderson then hit an RBI single to reclaim the lead.
The Mets responded to the Cubs run. They would score in three consecutive innings. In the sixth, Travis d’Arnaud hit a homerun into the homerun apple. In the seventh, Lagares would single, and this time, Harvey would bunt him over. Lagares was gradually expanding his lead, and then he took off and stole third. This allowed him to score on a shallow fly ball to left.
It was a tremendous slide by Lagares to just beat the tag. Tim Teufel was smart to send Lagares because he was taking advantage of Kyle Schwarber‘s inexperience in LF (he was a catcher in the minors). It was a good throw, but it took him a while to throw it. Schwarber would be heard from again in the eighth when he hit a homerun to CF, London, or Vancouver. I can’t tell because he hit it so far I think it crashed through a window on a flight out of Laguardia.
The Schwarber homerun knocked Harvey out of the game. It took that long homerun to do it. The Cubs couldn’t even knock him out of the game when a comeback line drive hit Harvey in his pitching arm. His final line was 7.2 innings, four hits, two earned, two walks (one intentional), and non strikeouts. He walked off the mound to a well earned standing ovation. Terry Collins brought in Jeurys Familia, who recorded the four out save.
The save was punctuated by a Murphy sliding stop and throw to first. He looks like he can do everything right now. So do the Mets. They beat the Cubs 4-2, and they’re up 1-0 in the series. They looked like a pennant winner. They looked like a champion.
In order for the Mets to win tonight, Jacob deGrom needs to be great, and he will be. However, at some point, the Mets will need to get a big hit. Anyone is possible. Here’s why everyone on this roster is capable of it:
Yoenis Cespedes because he’s already homered off of Zack Greinke in this series
Michael Conforto because like Cespedes he has too.
David Wright because he already has a big hit in this series.
Curtis Granderson because he’s been the best Mets hitter in this series
Wilmer Flores because it’s an emotional game, and he’s at his best when he’s emotional
Lucas Duda because he’s due, he’s hit Greinke, and because he knows how to clinch things
Daniel Murphy because he’s clutch, and he knows how to give deGrom run support in this series
Travis d’Arnaud because he’s had one big game in this series and is due for another
Kirk Nieuwenhuis because he already has a huge pinch hit homerun in a big spot this year
Juan Lagares because he’s more than a glove, and he’s already hit a homerun in Dodger Stadium
Michael Cuddyer because he still has something up his sleeve
Kelly Johnson because we knew the Mets were onto bigger and better things when he homered in his first game as a Met (against the Dodgers)
Kevin Plawecki and/or Matt Reynolds because you never know who’s going to get the big hit
It’ll happen tonight. If you need more inspiration to believe it’s true just remember what happened 19 years ago today:
LETS GO METS!
There appears to be two types of Mets fans: (1) those who love Daniel Murphy; and (2) those who don’t. I’m in the former camp. Gary Cohen is in the latter (full audio).
Now, it is way too early to do a postmortem on the Mets season. It’s too early. There’s still an important Game 5. However, I can’t fault Joe & Evan for addressing the topic with Gary Cohen. You don’t get him everyday, so when you get him, you want to address everything with him. That includes addressing the free agency situations of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy.
I don’t disagree with Gary regarding how the Mets will treat the Cespedes and Murphy situations. I agree that neither one will be back. Where I disagree with Gary is his statements about Murphy.
First, he called Murphy a “net negative.” Frankly, that’s nonsense. I understand Murphy’s flaws. He’s not a high .OBP guy. He sometimes makes curious fielding and baserunning mistakes. However, calling Murphy a net negative is a gross overstatement.
If you’re using WAR, he’s generally been between a 2.5 – 3.1 player, which means he’s a solid starter. That’s nothing to sneeze at. If you’re using weighted runs created, or wRC+, his range is between 107-126 in the years he’s been a starter meaning he’s an above average player. Basically, Murphy’s a good player; not a “net negative.”
My other dispute with Gary is that Wilmer Flores and/or Dilson Herrera can take Murphy’s spot. First of all neither of them is the hitter Murphy is now. Murphy is a career .288/.331/.424 hitter. This year he hit .281/.322/.449. This year Flores hit .263/.295/.408, and Herrera hit .211/.311/.367. These two are young (22 and 20 respectively) with potential, but they’re not in Murphy’s league as a hitter yet.
This is a playoff team now. Next year regardless of their free agency maneuvers, they will be a possible contending team with their pitching staff. It would be better to have some proven hitters like Murphy. It would also be nice to have Murphy as an insurance policy.
This year the SS situation was never fully resolved. It seemed like Ruben Tejada finally wrestled the position away until Chase Utley‘s dirty “slide.” It’s the second time he’s broken his right leg. Flores may be forced to play more SS than anyone would like next year.
Also, who knows about David Wright? The Mets want to limit him to four games in a row. That means you need someone capable of playing third base on a semi-regular basis. It would be preferable to have someone like Murphy who can move other there and competently play the position.
That doesn’t mean I think the Mets should give Murphy a huge free agent deal. Rather, I would start by offering him the $15.8 million qualifying offer. If he accepts it, great. You have him for one year while you wait for Herrera to develop and you find out about Wright’s back over a 162 game season. It’s an expensive insurance policy, but it may be a necessary one.
If he rejects it, you at least get a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere. Alternatively, it will limit is market allowing the Mets to negotiate with him on their terms. With all that said, I don’t want to be talking about this. I want to talk about his two homeruns this postseason. I want to talk about Game Five. I want to be talking about the NLCS.
So, let’s focus on what’s important here. That’s Game Five. The only Murphy discussion now should be how he can help the Mets win that game.