Wilmer Flores
After we found out Daniel Murphy rejected the qualifying offer, there were many people saying good bye to Murphy. Others celebrated his departure. These were all premeditated even if Murphy’s return is unlikely:
For those wondering, was told contract extension talks with Murphy never became serious. Again, all signs point to him going elsewhere.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) November 14, 2015
Yes, it’s likely Murphy leaves, but it’s not definitive. Murphy could still sign with the Mets. This is one of many misconceptions out there:
Mets Are Better Without Murphy
I really don’t understand this one. I’m well aware of his faults. He’s not a good baserunner. He’s not good defensively at second. He doesn’t walk a lot, and he doesn’t have a lot of power.
Well he is a second baseman, and he is one of the top hitters at that position. He hit .281/.322/.449 last year. Amongst second basemen:
- Batting average ranked ninth in the majors and fourth in the NL.
- OBP ranked twelfth in the majors and fifth in the NL. He was
- Slugging ranked fourth in the majors and first in the NL.
He had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. He’s making more and better contact. He’s clutch. Very clutch! Losing Murphy would be a big blow to the 2016 Mets, and that’s before you take into account if Dilson Herrera is ready or if David Wright can play everyday over 162 games.
The Money Can Be Better Allocated
This one is just wrong. With Murphy presumably gone, the Mets at least have issues to address in the middle infield. Some believe the Mets need another CF. Others want to get some more relievers. There’s also a group that wants to get an insurance option for Wright at third.
That’s a lot to add, especially for a team that only has about $18 million in their budget to resolve all of these problems. If you re-sign Murphy, you have at least address second base and the Wright insurance plan. With Murphy pegged to receive around $12 million annually, there is sufficient funds to add another reliever and/or a backup CF.
The only other free agent who can check these boxes is Ben Zobrist, who is a mistake signing waiting to happen. He’s 35 and in the midst of a three year decline. Last year, he was actually WORSE than Murphy defensively. I can’t believe the Mets will walk down this path again after signing a 35 year old Michael Cuddyer last year.
The Mets Have Better Internal Options
This is just ponderous. If you go the Wilmer Flores route, you’ve eliminated the Mets best possible shortstop option. Also, if you’re beating up Murphy for low OBP and the like, here’s Flores’ stats from last year: .263/.295/.408. He’s right handed and not even in the same league as Murphy as a hitter.
The other option is Dilson Herrera, who I think has a promising future. However, he’s still only 21. In limited major league duty over the past two years, he’s hit .215/.308/.383. Are we really confident he’s going to be handle the job next year? He will eventually, but this is a team that was just in the World Series. You should go with players who you know you can trust, not ones you hope can.
He’s a Net Negative
This is actually an oldie, but it is a good place for summation. Overall, for all of Murphy’s faults, he’s been a good guy that has performed well in New York. He was bounced all over the place, and he never complained. That’s important to have on any team, especially when it comes from a veteran.
More importantly, we should look at how he responded to the comment. He went on a homerun tear in the playoffs like we’ve never seen. Most people wilt under the bright lights of New York. He rose to the occasion.
Can you win a World Series with Murphy being the best player on your team? Probably not. However, as he showed this postseason, you’re probably not getting to the World Series without at least one Murphy in your team. Whoever signs Murphy is going to get a very good baseball player. A player who is versatile, hits well, and does not complain.
Until such a time as Murphy signs with another team, I’m not writing an obituary on his Mets career. I’m not saying good-bye yet. Instead, I’m holding out hope the Mets can push the misconceptions aside and re-sign Murphy.
Through everything that has happened with Ruben Tejada this postseason, one thing gets lost in the shuffle. He’s not a good SS and he’s starting to get expensive. With these things in mind, he’s not a lock to return in 2016:
Also, it doesn't sound as if Ruben Tejada is a slam dunk to be tendered a contract. Could be Matt Reynolds for that spot, competing for SS.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) November 12, 2015
Tejada is expected to receive $2.5 million in arbitration. He cannot be a free agent until 2018. He may have poor range (-5.6 UZR), but he catches everything hit to him. He’s a career .255/.340/.323 hitter. Long story, short. He’s a major leaguer. Maybe not a great one, but a major leaguer nevertheless.
It also means he’s as asset. Yes, this is the second time he’s broken his right leg. I know he’s not what everyone imagined he would be when the other shortstop left in free agency. However, he’s a competent player who is not making that much money. Last time the Mets made a penny wise, pound foolish decision like this was Justin Turner, and we know how that worked out.
Tejada is about to turn 27, so you can argue he’s about to be entering the prime of his career. The Mets seem to be letting Daniel Murphy walk and installing Dilson Herrera at second. If Herrera isn’t ready, Wilmer Flores (the lesser of all evils at SS) would be the most likely candidate to play second. Except he can’t in that situation because the Mets non-tendered Tejada. Also, what happens if Flores repeats his early season SS struggles?
I’m sure the Mets will look to get someone to replace Tejada, but it’s slim pickings. Do you really want to see Jimmy Rollins or Alexei Ramirez there everyday? It’s one thing to bring them in and give them a chance, it’s another to have to rely upon them. This more than anything is the reason why Tejada is so important.
The Mets need to keep Tejada.
Well now that the Andrelton Simmons drama is over, you would think the idea of a Mets-Braves trade would go away. At least you would think it would go away after the Braves overreach in their asking price. It turns out the asking price was even worse than we all thought:
#Braves officials told #Mets it would take a young arm plus Conforto to do a deal. NYM never got back to Atl — as you would expect.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 13, 2015
You would think that this would put an end to any idea that the Mets and Braves would enter into a trade for a everyday player. Nope because the Braves received Erick Aybar as part of the trade. Naturally, everyone sees the name and goes there’s a fit:
Now #Mets and #Braves are set up nicely for an Aybar for prospects type trade.
— Jim Bowden⚾️ (@JimBowdenGM) November 13, 2015
It’s at this point it should be noted Jim Bowden was a terrible GM in more ways than one. There’s a reason why he hasn’t had a front office job since 2009. If you didn’t have any reason to call his judgment into question, look no further than his idea that the Mets obtain Aybar.
Aybar is coming off a year where he hit .270/.301/.338. For his career, he is hitting .270/.316/.378. He will be 32 years old on Opening Day. He’s in the last year of his deal, and he’s owed $8.5 million. That’s a lot of money for a guy that’s not a good hitter. However, the Mets have a need for a defensive SS, so maybe you bite the bullet here. Aybar has won a Gold Glove.
Except, it was just the one, and it was five years ago. Now, he’s got horrible range. His UZR this past season was -7.1. If you want to argue that UZR can change from year to year, and he was much better in 2014, I agree. However, he was also a -6.6 in 2013. Essentially, in two of the last three years, his range is close to fall down left – fall down right.
Let’s put it another way, we all agree Wilmer Flores was good defensively last year. Well, at a -2.5 UZR, he had much better range than Aybar. As we saw after Ruben Tejada went down in the postseason, Flores was much better at SS. Gone were the wild throws and awkwardness in turning the double play.
Now, what is more likely? Is it more likely that Aybar suddenly rediscovers his range from five years ago at the age of 32, or is it more likely that the 24 year old Flores is improving at SS? Would you want to pay Aybar $8.5 million against Flores’ $500-600 k salary to find out? Is Aybar really worth $8 million more plus prospects? Isn’t Flores the better bet, especially with his 16 homeruns last year?
Look, if you’re not comfortable with Flores, I get it. However, that does not mean you make a bad trade for a bad player who plays a bad SS. The fact of the matter is there are no good shortstop options. You can stick with Flores and/or wait to get a veteran insurance policy on the cheap. You could also trade for a SS.
The trade route is fine as long as you’re not trading for Aybar because he’s no longer a good SS. I’d rather stick with Flores.
The recent Andrelton Simmons trade rumors suggests again the Mets know there is a hole at shortstop.
Last year, Wilmer Flores showed he wasn’t an everyday shortstop. On top of that with Daniel Murphy likely departing, he may be needed at second if Dilson Herrera isn’t ready. On top of that, Ruben Tejada once again exhibited limited range for the position, and that is before taking into account his broken leg. You’d like to say Matt Reynolds is an option, but he regressed at the plate last year in a hitter’s league and park. Furthermore, he, like Flores, is someone who may not profile as a major league shortstop.
The Mets have two well regarded shortstop prospects with Gavin Cecchini and Ahmed Rosario. Both played in AA for the first time last year. While Michael Conforto made the jump from AA to the majors, it would be unfair to presume these two could. Conforto did something rare. Accordingly, it’s safe to assume Cecchini and Rosario are at least two to three years away from playing with the big league club.
The free agent market is thin at shortstop with the best option being a high priced player in decline for the past two years. Furthermore, the Mets unloaded their best trade pieces on rentals to go all-in last year. This begs the question, what do you do?
Well, there’s only one thing to do. You let the free agent market shake out. You look to take on one of the remaining shortstops on either a minor league deal or a cheap major league deal. I’m sure a player like Jimmy Rollins is looking for one last chance to win a World Series. Alexei Ramirez may want a one year deal to re-establish his value.
No, I’m not excited about these players either. However, it’s the reality of the Mets situation. Much like they wanted to catch lightning in a bottle with Flores last year, they’re looking to do it again next year with Flores or whoever else it may be.
It’s difficult knowing the Mets real shortstops are two plus years away, but the team is ready to win now.
One of the Mets biggest mistakes last year might have been passing on the opportunity to obtain Jung Ho Kang. The Rookie of the Year candidate hit .287/.355/.461 in 126 games at SS. His WAR was 4.0. His UZR was 1.6 making him an average SS with a good bat. Basically, he was what the Mets hoped Wilmer Flores would be.
The Mets may now have the opportunity to add a Korean player, who could help them in the bullpen. Seung-hwan Oh is coming to the United States next week in search of an offer to pitch in the majors next year. Unlike Kang, Oh is a free agent so the team interested in him does not have to pay a posting fee to obtain his rights. Even with success in the Korean and Japanese leagues, the 33 year old closer is an unknown commodity. An unknown commodity who has recorded a 1.81 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 11 professional seasons.
We don’t know how those stats translate to the majors. What we do know is his stuff. He has what he calls a “Stone Fastball” which has a velocity between 92-94 MPH. He can add a little to it to get it up to 97 MPH. He also has a slider that he deviates the speeds between 80-89 MPH. He also has a curveball he throws in the 70s.
He has the type of arsenal that should work well in the majors. Overall, he’s an unknown commodity who carries the burden of having had Tommy John surgery in 2001 and a second elbow surgery in 2010. His last contract earned him $4.15 million per season in Japan. If he asked for a similar contract, he would cost about half of what the elite set-up options cost in this market.
For what it’s worth, here’s some video of him pitching in Japan:
He certainly looks like he has the stuff to pitch in the majors. He’s a risk, but he’s got swagger. As stated above, he calls his fastball the “Stone Fastball.” He goes by the nickname “The Final Boss.” He at least sounds like the type of player and personality that could succeed in New York.
This Mets bullpen may just need one final boss. Oh is worth the risk.
I’m sure I’m not breaking any new ground when I say the Mets are not going to re-sign Daniel Murphy. However, it wasn’t until I read the tea leaves that I lost hope.
Look who the Mets have interest in signing as free agents:
My sense of the free agent CF types who are on the Mets’ radar at this point: Span, Fowler, Parra.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
They’re going after two left-handed and one switch hitting CF. Sure, it’s an indictment on how the Mets feel about Juan Lagares because you can’t expect these players to all of a sudden sign on to become a platoon player. It’s also a sign the Mets are not re-signing Murphy.
When and if the Mets lose Murphy, they’re losing a left-handed second baseman and presumably replacing him with one of two right-handed bats: Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores. This will make the Mets lineup right handed dominant with only three lefty hitters. This takes away the L-R-L switching in the lineup that Terry Collibs likes to do.
To keep the L-R-L in place the simple solution would be to keep Murphy. He’s seeking comparable money to the free agent CF. He’s insurance against David Wright breaking down, Lucas Duda slumping, Herrera not being ready, and/or Ruben Tejada being physically ready and able to play shortstop.
No, the Mets have announced they want to go with a left-handed CF. That’s how they’ll keep the L-R-L in the lineup. Things could change, but I doubt it. It’s a shame because Murphy was a good Met and the CF options aren’t that great.
So I will begin to make my piece with Murphy going to another team. I wish him the best.
Last year, Terry Collins did a masterful job juggling the shortstop position between Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada. Looking over the free agent list, the Mets might be wise to go with Flores at SS next year.
The proverbial class of the SS market is Ian Desmond. He’s anticipated to receive a four year $60 million contract in free agency. He’s likely to receive and reject a qualifying offer meaning signing him comes with forfeiting your first round draft pick. The narrative is he’s coming off a down year. I’m not sure that’s true.
Yes, Desmond was not good in the first half hitting .211/.255/.334. He picked it up in the second half hitting .278/.310/.444. Overall, he finished 2015 hitting .233/.290/.384. In 2014, he hit .255/.313/.430. I could argue last year was just symbolic of a declining player as he hit .280/.331/.453 in 2013. For his career, he’s a .264/.312/.424 hitter. He’s hit .255/.329/.440 at Citi Field.
The thing is he’s going to have to hit to stay at SS. Last year, his UZR was -3.7 meaning he’s a below average SS. The prior year his UZR was 0.1 meaning he was average. Two years ago, his UZR was 4.4 meaning he was an above average SS. Again this is further evidence that Desmond is amidst a three year decline.
I can accept the argument that he had a down year last year due to his impending free agency. However, how do you explain his 2014? I’d rather take my chances with Flores, who is younger, has more potential, and surprisingly, is better defensively. The Mets have several areas to address, and they can’t wrap up all their money in a declining player.
There are ways to upgrade this team. Ian Desmond is not one of them.
Going into the 2015 season, the Mets were determined to make it work with Wilmer Flores at SS. It was rough. Flores had trouble turning the double play. He made some routine throwing errors. He seemed to press from day one.
Eventually, the Mets had to abandon the plan. Not only was Flores struggling in the field, he was also struggling at the plate. At the end of June, he was hitting .236/.267/.390. At that point, Flores wasn’t the only one struggling. The whole team was, especially with David Wright out indefinitely. Therefore, Daniel Murphy would move to third, Flores would move to second, and Ruben Tejada would once again become the Mets SS.
From June 30th on, Tejada was the everyday SS. Flores would eventually be relegated to the bench first with the trade for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. That went doubly so when Wright came off the DL. Soon Tejada was going out there everyday and Flores was on the bench.
At that point, the Mets got healthy and got Yoenis Cespedes. They just needed defense from Tejada. The narrative was Tejada was a good defensive SS, and Flores wasn’t. Looking over the stats, I believe the narrative was wrong. The narrative should’ve been, Tejada is more steady than Flores. It’s a slight difference, but it’s an important one. The difference is because Flores has better range at short than Tejada.
In fact, in terms of range, Tejada isn’t a SS. He never was. His UZR this year was a -5.6. This translates to him being a below average SS. Throwing away last year, Tejada’s average UZR is 0.8, which means he’s, at best, an average SS.
On the other hand, Flores did come into 2015 with some promise. His 2014 at SS was 4.0 rating him as an above average defensive SS. However, this year he had a UZR of -2.5 which rates as being a slightly below average SS. It makes him better than Tejada, but still below average. However, the flaw with UZR is it doesnt judge throws or the ease in which a player turns a double play.
It’s the attempt at turning the double play that might’ve cost Tejada a chance at being the SS in 2016. Going into the playoffs, Tejada really seized his chance to be the everyday SS. He was making the routine plays, and he was hitting. In September and October, he hit .297/.357/.496. For the year, he hit .261/.338/.350. This is compared to Flores’ .253/.287/.386.
Tejada really became the better of two bad choices. He had the leg up in the competition until Chase Utley took Tejada’s legs right out from under him. Mets fans were initially nervous with Flores really being the only SS. He performed admirably.
Flores did show off that range, but now he was making all the throws. He showed no signs of hesitation on the double plays. He only hit .195/.298/.294 in the postseason, but he was taking better at bats. He showed why the Mets wanted him to be the SS over Tejada.
Accordingly, Flores is the better SS, and if the Mets make no additional moves, he should be the 2016 Opening Day SS.
Earlier, I had a case as to why I believed the Mets should try to re-sign Daniel Murphy. I think the Mets should bring him back. However, there are valid reasons why you don’t bring him back.
He’s not a good defensive second baseman, and that’s the only place to play him right now and in the near future. He’s prone to a base running gaffe or two. Re-signing him will be very expensive insurance option for David Wright, especially when you already have Wilmer Flores. You don’t want to create a log jam on the roster and in the infield for when Dilson Herrera is ready to play everyday in the majors.
Whatever the decision, I hope the process happens quickly. The longer it goes on, the more awkward it becomes for everyone. As a result, more questions get asked about why the Mets arent interested, or what’s wrong with Murphy that team’s aren’t interested? It’s better that the process happens quickly. The overall goal is to avoid the he said – she said that followed after Jose Reyes signed with the Marlins. The Mets were good to Murphy, and in return, Murphy was good to the Mets. There’s no need for anyone to look bad here.
As a parting gift, the Mets should get a first round compensation pick, and Murphy should get a huge contract.
Did you know the Mets are 10-1 to win the 2016 World Series? Did you know people are speculating that the Mets could do what the Royals just did? Really?
It’s too early to start this nonsense. People playing this game is the reason casinos and bookies made so much money. If the 2015 Mets return, I can see you taking the bet. If the 2016 Mets are a better team than the 2015 Mets on paper, I can see you taking the bet. However, it’s way too early to determine what will happen next year.
We have no idea what the Mets are going to do. We don’t know if the Mets have money to spend. The Mets got rid of their two best trade chips. Would it shock anyone to see the Opening Day double play combination be Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada? Would that combination give you confidence that the Mets can return to the playoffs let alone the World Series? Me neither.
With the pitching staff, it’s easy to get excited. However, it wasn’t enough in June and July. I need to see more before I get excited for 2016. I’m curious to see what will happen.