Michael Conforto
Last year, Michael Cuddyer was signed by the Mets to be that missing offensive piece. The Mets were so confident he would help them they were willing to forfeit their first round pick. It turns out they were wrong.
Cuddyer had the worst year of his career. He’s a career .277/.344/.461 hitter mostly playing in hitter’s parks like the Metrodome and Coors Field. Last year, he only hit .259/.309/.391. What was the reason for the decline? It could’ve been the switch to Citi Field. It could’ve been free agents the Mets sign always have a poor first year (see Beltran, Carlos and Granderson, Curtis). It could’ve been his turning 36. It could’ve been the injuries.
Cuddyer had a knee injury that compromised him for much of the year. He required surgery on his core. Either one of these injuries could reasonably explain the down year. At the very least, we can expect a healthier Cuddyer in 2016. With him being a bench player now, we can also expect a fresher Cuddyer too.
Mostly, you can expect Cuddyer to take some at bats against tough lefties with Granderson, Lucas Duda, and Michael Conforto. For his career, Cuddyer has hit .290/.377/.494. Even in a down year last year, he hit .273/.357/.343. These are good numbers against lefties. He’s important because the Mets best hitters are all lefties. This will help curb the effects of the Mets facing a tough lefty during the regular season.
Cuddyer’s other duties will include pinch hitting. For his career, Cuddyer has hit .355/.431/.548 in 72 pinch hitting attempts. Considering Cuddyer will be the team’s presumed top pinch hitter, these numbers are encouraging. Even more encouraging was his numbers as a pinch hitter last year. In 22 plate appearances, Cuddyer hit .316/.364/.316. Even in a down year, Cuddyer had good at bats as a pinch hitter.
Lastly, the Mets have a David Wright problem. Wright showed last year, he can still be an effective player. However, he can still only play only four days in a row. With Daniel Murphy, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson being free agents, the Mets don’t have a definitive answer for Wright’s days off. Cuddyer has played some third in his career, but not with any regularity since 2005.
However, Cuddyer is now a bench player. He has to be ready to pinch hit and play multiple positions. If Cuddyer is even a hint of the player he once was, the Mets will have a strong bench in 2016. They will have an insurance policy for first, third, left, and right. Signing Cuddyer may have been a mistake, but it doesn’t mean he won’t be a useful player.
He’s going to have to play a big role in 2016, even if it’s a role neither he nor the Mets thought he would play.
There are many thoughts about this offseason that baffles me. One is this notion that since the Mets offered Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, it doesn’t matter if the Mets sign a player whose received a qualifying offer. The premise is the two moves cancel each other out.
For the uninitiated, the way the qualifying offer system works, if you sign a player who was offered a qualifying offer by another team, you forfeit your first round pick. In exchange, the team that lost a player has a pick tacked on to the end of the first round.
The only exception to this is if you have a Top 10 pick. In that instance, you forfeit your second round pick. The team losing the player still has a pick added to the end of the first round.
Right now, the Mets have the 24th pick in the 2016 draft. That pick will go higher if someone between 11-23 signs Murphy. In addition, the Mets will get another pick somewhere after the Cardinals and the start of the second round.
Now, I don’t buy the cancel each other nonsense. People are saying moving down a few slots is not a big deal. What’s the difference between picking 24th and say 33rd. That’s flawed thinking for a few reasons.
The first is their focus is misplaced. Say Murphy signs with the Rockies as reported. This means the Mets keep their 24th pick and receive the 31st pick (depending on how many teams lose a player in free agency and their W-L records). That’ll give you two picks in the top say 35. If the Mets forfeit their first round pick, their second pick will be in the 50’s to 60’s.
Now, draft picks aren’t a guarantee, but I’d assume that the player picked at 24 will be thought of as a better player than the player picked at 33 and the player picked 52. In addition, wouldn’t you rather have three picks in the top 60 as opposed to two?
This also brings me to my second point. The Mets farm system is decent, but it’s taken some hits lately:
- There was no 2015 first round pick due to the signing of Michael Cuddyer;
- Trading potential future ace Casey Meisner for Tyler Clippard; and
- Trading an even better pitcher in Michael Fulmer for Yoenis Cespedes.
In essence, the Mets could benefit from bringing in some more talented players. The idea here is to create a flow of prospects to the major league level. If you lose someone, you want to have a player waiting in the wings. If you need to make a trade, you want a well regarded prospect to make the trade you need to make.
Now, if the Mets feel they are one player away, sign that player. The goal is to win the World Series, and the Mets are so close. However, you have to be right. The Mets thought they were close to becoming a contender coming into the 2015 season, so they signed Cuddyer. Turns out they were right, but only after trading for Cespedes and calling up Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto.
Moral of the story is you have to be right otherwise you have a $12 million bench player instead of a first round pick who could’ve been a stud. Remember, prospects are always worth more than aging, expensive bench players. That’s why you don’t just sign someone with a qualifying offer attached to him.
You only sign that player if they’d be worth a big prospect because that’s what you’re doing.
Well it was bound to happen sooner or later. Tonight, my son wanted to watch the Mets. I figured the best bet was SNY for a classic game. Nope. I then went to MLB Network. Mistake.
I turned it on just to watch Michael Conforto hit his second homerun off of Danny Duffy. As my son was cheering homerun, I was despondent. All the pain from last week came rushing back again. I remembered how I sat there helplessly through Games Four and Five. As he fell asleep, I kept playing it all over and over in my head again. Just replaying these two games that should’ve sent the Mets back to Kansas City with a 3-2 lead.
Well, I think I found something that will let me get some sleep tonight. It isn’t Conforto’s two homeruns in Game Four. It was his meaningless single at the end of Game 5. The Mets were down to their last out. Wade Davis had two strikes on him. Instead of giving in to the inevitable, Conforto battled in that at bat (as every Met batter did that inning). He eventually hit an opposite field single.
Yes, in the grand scheme of things it was a really meaningless single. The Mets were down five and were not coming back. However, Conforto got that basehit. It speaks a lot about him, and it tells you what type of player he will be. He’s never giving up, and he will do what he can to give his team a chance to win.
So if you are a Mets fan still in mourning over the World Series, take solace in that Conforto at bat. It’s a sign of good things to come.
A large part of what happened in the second half of the season was the Mets obtaining Yoenis Cespedes. I’m not in the camp that the Mets wouldn’t have won the division without him. However, I do believe it prevented a dog fight for the division.
While it was a wild ride, it came at a cost. A huge cost. I remember being vilified for suggesting the Mets would not sign him. Now, it seems like after an awful World Series, fans are on board with the sentiment. There seems to be a multitude of reasons why people do or do not want Cespedes to come back to the Mets. For what it’s worth, it appears he will not return.
I know its academic, but it’s the right decision. There’s no room for him on the roster. Michael Conforto will be the everyday leftfielder. Curtis Granderson has two more years on his contract to be the rightfielder. The Mets are set at the corner outfield positions. As for centerfield, Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder. I know he played there for the Mets, but it wasn’t a great decision. It was a decision to increase offense.
Looking over his career, Cespedes has poor range in centerfield. His UZR in centerfield this year was a -3.2, which equates to being a below average centerfielder. It just wasn’t those lazy World Series plays, it was the entire second half. By the way, this was the worst he’s been in three years in centerfield. His prior UZRs were -1.3 and -1.7. It’s the reason three teams didn’t see him as a centerfielder. People didn’t notice it as much because he was impossibly hot at the plate.
Look at it this way, everyone jumped all over Juan Lagares for having a down year defensively. His UZR was 3.5, which equates to him being an above average centerfielder. So to get this straight, Lagares was bad, and Cespedes was good? No, Cespedes hit, and Lagares didn’t.
I do think Cespedes will continue to hit for power. In his four year career, his 162 game average is .271/.319/.486 with 30 homers and 106 RBI. Whether or not he’s a poor on base percentage player, he will continue to mash. That still doesn’t make him a CF. It makes him a terrific left fielder. The Mets have one of those.
So we should all thank Cespedes for what he’s done for this team because he won’t be back. It was a wild ride, and I wish him the best at his next stop.
Goumg into last year, the Mets thought they had sufficiently addressed the offense by signing Michael Cuddyer to play LF and John Mayberry, Jr. to bat against lefties and pinch hit.
Well Mayberry was so bad he was released, and Cuddyer had a disappointing season even before the knee injury. Cuddyer hit .259/.309/.391 this year. He looked old and slow during the postseason. He will enter the 2016 as a $12.5 million bench player. Just keep that in mind as you watch the Mets moves this offseason.
The reason Cuddyer will be a bench player is Michael Conforto. Due to Cuddyer’s knee injury and a historicall inept offense, Conforto was called up to the majors from AA in late July. He would play in 56 games hitting .270/.335/.506 with 14 doubles, 9 homers, and 26 RBIs. Also, he was much better than advertised defensively:
In the limited time Conforto was with the Mets, his UZR was 7.5, which means he is an above average to great defensive left fielder. As he learns the position, he could one day compete for a Gold Glove. With an accurate arm like his, he may very well replace Curtis Granderson in a few years.
At the plate, we saw the promise he has, and how he’s delivering on that promise. This upcoming year, the Mets will make him an everyday player and not just a platoon player. He’s shown he can handle lefties and righties in the minors. We saw him do it in the World Series:
All postseason he took good at bats even if the results weren’t there. He did have three homeruns. One was in his first postseason at bat against Zack Greinke of all people.
Conforto has what it takes to be just not just a great hitter but a great overall player. If you had Conforto for the whole year, his numbers would’ve averaged out to .270/.335/.506 with 41 doubles, 26 homers, and 75 RBI. Those are All Star numbers. If Conforto improves just a little next year, he will be a star in this league. He will be the best player on the Mets.
He’s the reason no matter what the Mets do in the offseason, the biggest upgrade they make is in left field.
Honestly, I hate wasting my breath. I mostly write this blog late, late at night when everyone is in bed and I’m still up pondering what the heck did Terry Collins just do. However, this World Series has bothered me so much I’m not going to sleep anytime soon. One of the main reasons is Yoenis Cespedes.
Be honest. After seeing his play over the last four games, do you have more faith in him than Michael Conforto? Do you have more faith in him than Juan Lagares? You shouldn’t. Conforto and Lagares are playing better offensively and defensively. It’s mostly because they hustle. Cespedes hasn’t. In fact, Cespedes has been lazy out there at best, a quitter at worst.
As a fan, I have found his play in the World Series to be offensive. As you can tell from his .176/.167/.176 triple slash line, I don’t mean offensive to be his at bats. No, I mean his lack of hustle and his poor judgment on the field. He deserves to ride the bench. He won’t because Terry Collins doesn’t have the nerve to do it. I’m not even sure he’s upset with Cespedes’ play. That bothers me more.
I know he has a shoulder problem. The only thing that should effect is his at bats, which the stats suggests it might. It shouldn’t affect his legs, head, and or desire to win. Does his bum shoulder explain this play:
I know it’s painful, but look at that play again. He claimed he didn’t call for it, but he certainly looked like he was taking command of the play by his route. He said he lost the ball looking for Michael Conforto. Look it happens, but what happens next shouldn’t happen. The ball hits him on the leg, and he just stops. Stops! The only guy with an arm strong enough to maybe keep Escobar from scoring just gives up right then and there.
Another “favorite” play of mine was the Salvador Perez double last night. At the time, it was 2-0 in the fifth. Steven Matz was cruising. Rewatch what happened next:
That ball SHOULD’VE been caught. Admittedly, I thought differently last night, but I just re-watched the play. Cespedes’ top gear is a sight to behold. That was nowhere near it. As a result, he didn’t get there, and he kicked the ball again. To make matters worse, HE DIDN’T run after it. Where’s the hustle? The sense of urgency?
That brings me to his at bats. He’s struck out six times in the World Series. It’s going to happen. I’m not even upset that he keeps chasing and getting himself out with the pitches in the dirt. I’m upset because when he strikes out, he doesn’t bother to run to first. If it happens on July 20th in the third inning, I get it. It’s a long season you got to conserve energy to get through a 162 game season.
This is the World Series! You’ve got to give it your all. Cespedes clearly isn’t. The Royals are. The Royals are everything Cespedes isn’t. Am I blaming Cespedes? No. There are other problems. However, his lacksadasical play led to two outs becoming runs.
If he’s not going to give it his all, why is he out there? If Conforto and Lagares are playing better on both sides of the ball, why is he out there? The Mets are on the brink of losing the World Series. It’s a time for urgency. A time to run out the players who want it most. A time to run out the players who give you the best chance to win. That’s not Cespedes. At least not when he’s doing this on the base paths:
He needs to sit.
The Mets were humming along through five innings. Steven Matz was good through five innings. At that point, he allowed five hits, one earned, no walks and five strikeouts. Watching the game, he was out of gas. It was a tremendous effort.
In the bottom of the fifth, Michael Conforto would hit the second of his two homeruns. This one coming off a lefty. The Mets had a 3-1 lead. The Royals only run to that point was the result of Yoenis Cespedes not hustling for a ball hit by Salvador Perez. I’m not saying it should’ve been caught. I’m saying it could’ve been caught. To make matters worse, he kicks it making a possible out a double.
Things were humming along, and then Terry Collins let the gassed Matz hit for himself. No one in the ballpark, not even Matz’s grandfather knew what he was thinking.
In a surprise to no one, a double and a single to start the sixth and the Royals narrowed the gap to 3-2. Collins had to burn through Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon. Actually, he didn’t need to use Colon there, but Colon got the big strikeout to end the inning with the tying run at third. Seeing how Colon pitched, did he come on for the seventh? No, of course not. It’s the postseason, so you manage like its paint by numbers.
He used Addison Reed for the seventh. He got the Royals out 1-2-3 in quick fashion. Then Collins brings in Tyler Clippard. A man he had so much faith in in this pivotal inning that he started warming up Jeurys Familia immediately. By the way, you can’t have faith in Clippard. He’s been terrible lately. All postseason Collins has skipped him or quickly go to Familia.
Look if you have faith in Clippard, you don’t warm up Familia before he throws a pitch. You may ask why not Familia for six outs if you have him warming up so soon. The reason was Collins felt it important to have him close out a game with a six run lead last night. It compromised his ability to go six outs. It cost the Mets.
Clippard recorded the first out, but then he lost control. He then walked the next two batters. Familia came on and got a ground ball that Daniel Murphy booted. Tie game. A rejuvenated Royals team then starts hitting Familia. Two hits later and it’s a 5-3 game.
Now because Ned Yost didn’t waste his closer for useless innings last night, he could use Wade Davis for two innings. The Mets still had a chance. Murphy singled and then Cespedes singled. They’re in business. Tying runs on with Lucas Duda coming up. This is where Cespedes would put the capper on a lazy, baffling game.
Duda got one in his kitchen. He swung and hit a low bloop to Mike Moustakas. Everyone saw it was going to hold up for him, even the notoriously bad Baserunners Murphy. Not Cespedes. He’s almost on second when the ball is caught. Easy double play. Game over.
Another quick note on Cespedes that sums up his World Series perfectly: he constantly strikes out on balls in the dirt. Once he strikes out, he goes to the dugout. He doesn’t bother to look to run to first. He doesn’t adapt to how he’s being pitched. He won’t hustle after a strikeout.
Series isn’t over yet. The Mets still have their three best pitchers lined up. The three best starters in the series. Hopefully, Cespedes will actually hustle tomorrow. Hopefully, Collins will figure out how to become a good in game manager. Hopefully, the Mets can pull this off.
Coming into the postseason, Juan Lagares was nothing more than a defensive replacement. In Game 1 of the NLDS, the Mets went with Michael Cuddyer over Lagares and Michael Conforto against Clayton Kershaw.
Cuddyer was so bad in the field that the Mets haven’t given him another start. The next three times an opponent started a lefty, the Mets would go with Lagares. This is in addition to his appearances as a defensive replacement. While Lagares has not played to his usual defensive standards this postseason, he’s shined offensively.
Lagares has a triple slash line of .368/.400/.474 with six runs, two doubles, and two stolen bases. In Game 1, he created a run by singling after an extended at bat, stealing a base, and scoring on an error by Eric Hosmer. Conversely, Conforto has struggled.
After homering in his first postseason at bat against Zack Greinke, he hasn’t hit. Literally. After that homerun, Conforto is 0-19 with a walk and six strikeouts. It looks like he’s having good at bats. He’s hit some balls hard, but the results aren’t there. Yes, he’s a much better hitter than Lagares. However, Lagares is hot, and he’s cold.
Normally, Lagares would sit against the Royals Game 3 starter, Yordano Ventura, because he’s righty. However, Terry Collins doesn’t seem inclined to sit Lagares:
Terry Collins indicates good chance of Juan Lagares in CF with Yoenis Cespedes in LF, but lineup not written yet.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) October 29, 2015
Here, I can’t fault Collins either way. On the one hand you go with the hot bat and better glove, even if he’s not producing as much defensively as you would like. On the other you have a good hitter who just can’t buy a hit, but you know he will be good to very good defensively.
In the end, I’d lean towards Conforto. It’s what you’ve done all year. Lagares has shown he can impact a game late by coming in for defense or by being a spark plug. Also, I like Conforto’s approach right now. He’s not getting hits, but he’s working the count and varying his deliveries.
Whatever the decision, the Mets will be fine. They’re both very capable players, who have a lot to offer a team. I’m confident either or both will have a big hit it defensive play b
The Royals named Edison Volquez as their Game One starter. The Volquez-Johnny Cueto decision wasn’t like what the Mets faced before in the playoffs. However, it merited consideration, and the Royals went with Volquez.
This year Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.308 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. That’s where the good ends for Volquez. In his career, he is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s been slightly better this postseason going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.1 K/9. In the end, what matters most is how he’s pitched against the Mets:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB and 2 K
Combined 18-99 (.182 BA), 12 BB (.270 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.253 slugging), 11 RBI, and 22 K
Here’s how the bench has fared against Volquez:
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kelly Johnson 4-14 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-0
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench 6-23 (.263) with 3 BB (.346 OBP), 2 double (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, 1 K
In essence, Volquez had pitched well against the Mets. However, the Mets players have gotten to him. When the Mets have made contact, they’ve hit homeruns. It’ll be tough to hit homers in a stadium like Kauffman.
Fortunately, the Mets have better pitching than the Royals. If the Mets pitch how they should, they will need just one of those blasts to win the game, similar to the NLDS.
Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst.
With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings.
Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?
Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K
Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:
Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K
In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:
Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K
Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this? Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow? It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:
March/April .208/.269/.349
May .222/.282/.364
June .235/.298/.367
July .252/.324/.365
August .243/.305/.412
September/October .275/.335/.426
Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will.