Michael Conforto

Cueto is Hittable

Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst. 

With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings. 

Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?

Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:

Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double 
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K

Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:

Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double 

Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K

In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:

Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K

Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this?  Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow?  It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:

March/April .208/.269/.349

May .222/.282/.364

June .235/.298/.367

July .252/.324/.365

August .243/.305/.412

September/October .275/.335/.426

Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will. 

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Who Should DH?

With the Mets playing in Kansas City to begin the World Series, they will have to choose a player to DH. There are a number of options. 

Best Defensive Lineup

Late in games this postseason, the Mets have inserted Juan Lagares into the game for defensive purposes. This has moved Yoenis Cespedes to left and Michael Conforto to the bench. 

With a spacious Kaufman Stadium outfield, the Mets could start the game with this defensive alignment and move Conforto to DH. This becomes more of an option because Lagares is having a good postseason. It’s a way to maximize the defense while getting Conforto’s bat into the game. 

Left-handed Bats

The Royals have all right handed starters. If past history is any indication, Terry Collins will try to get as many lefties in the lineup as possible. 

That would eliminate the Lagares option but keep Conforto in the lineup. The lefties on the bench now are Kelly Johnson and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Given the choice for a first choice off the bench, Collins has consistently gone for Johnson over Nieuwenhuis. Neither has much experience against presumptive Game One starter Johnny Cueto (Johnson 1-6; Nieuwenhuis 1-3). 

In this circumstance, Collins would go with Johnson, who is his only backup infielder with major league experience. If something happens, Matt Reynolds will be playing his first career game in the World Series. 

Michael Cuddyer

Unlike most of the Mets roster, Michael Cuddyer has played extensively in the AL.  However, despite playing 10 years in the AL, he’s only played 37 games at DH. 

As a DH, he has hit .265/.344/.402. This is similar to his career numbers of .277/.344/.461. At Kaufman Stadium, he’s hitting .281/.371/.531. One note of caution there is that was against some terrible Royals teams. The Mets are not facing a terrible Royals team in the World Series. 

Overall, he’s waited the longest of all the Mets position players to play in his first World Series. I’m sure he wants to contribute and may have a big hit in him. Sometimes that makes a dangerous player. 

My Pick

At the end of the day, I want the best team out there. In my opinion, that is Lagares in CF and Conforto at DH. The Royals put a lot of balls in play, so the Mets will need an OF that covers a lot ground. 

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Conforto is a Winner

Good things have happened to the Mets since they called up Michael Conforto. He was called up on July 24, 2015. At that time, the Mets were 49-47, and they were three games back (four in the loss column) in the NL East. 

After Conforto’s call-up, the Mets went 41-25. That’s a .621 clip or a 100 win pace. Sure, there were other moves, but he was the first move. With the Mets now in the World Series, he’s putting together a Miguel Cabrera type of rookie year. He’s also looking to have a Jason Varitek type of year:

Varitek and Ed Vosberg were alone in that group until Tuesday when they were joined by Conforto. It should be noted that Varitek (2004 & 2009) and Vosberg (1997) won their World Series. It’s now Conforto’s chance to follow their lead. I like his chances. Conforto has been a winner all his life. He’s now helped make the Mets winners. 

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Back to the Mets Future 

Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:

  
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:

April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Juan Lagares CF 
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Michael Cuddyer LF
  5. Daniel Murphy 2B
  6. Eric Campbell 3B
  7. Kevin Plawecki C
  8. Wilmer Flores SS
  9. Jon Niese P

May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0

  1. Juan Lagares CF
  2. Wilmer Flores SS
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Michael Cuddyer LF
  5. Daniel Murphy 2B
  6. John Mayberry, Jr. RF
  7. Eric Campbell 3B
  8. Kevin Plawecki C
  9. Jacob deGrom P

June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Juan Lagares CF
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Michael Cuddyer LF
  5. Wilmer Flores SS
  6. Kevin Plawecki C
  7. Dilson Herrera 2B
  8. Eric Campbell 3B
  9. Matt Harvey P

July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Ruben Tejada SS
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Daniel Murphy 3B
  5. Wilmer Flores 2B
  6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
  7. Kevin Plawecki C
  8. Jacob deGrom P
  9. Juan Lagares CF

August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Daniel Murphy 3B
  3. Yoenis Cespedes CF
  4. Lucas Duda 1B
  5. Wilmer Flores SS
  6. Kelly Johnson 2B
  7. Travis d’Arnaud C
  8. Michael Conforto LF
  9. Bartolo Colon P

September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Daniel Murphy 3B
  3. Yoenis Cespedes CF
  4. Lucas Duda 1B
  5. Travis d’Arnaud C
  6. Kelly Johnson 2B
  7. Michael Conforto LF
  8. Wilmer Flores SS
  9. Jon Niese P

October 21, 2015 (estimated)

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. David Wright 3B
  3. Daniel Murphy 2B
  4. Yoenis Cespedes CF
  5. Lucas Duda 1B
  6. Travis d’Arnaud
  7. Michael Conforto LF
  8. Wilmer Flores SS
  9. Steven Matz P

Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight. 

I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series. 

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Conforto Can Do No Wrong

With the Mets floundering offensively earlier in the season, we were repeatedly told by the front office Michael Conforto wasn’t ready. Then Michael Cuddyer got hurt. Finally, the Mets had no choice but to call up Conforto. The Mets couldn’t send him back down. 

It turns out Conforto was ready, and he was better than advertised. In his rookie season, he hit .270/.335/.506 with 14 doubles, nine homeruns, and 26 RBIs. We were told he was weak defensively, but that turned out to be wrong:

The Mets entered the playoffs facing a number of lefties in the NLDS. He sat in Game One against Clayton Kershaw because this year he is a platoon player. He finally got to play in Game Two, and he gets to face Zack Greinke, who is a Cy Young candidate. No problem:

Last night, he comes up in a big spot and strikes out:

Even when he strikes out something good happens. Turns out he was ready. Turns out he was better than we thought. Right now, he can do no wrong.

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Poison Ivy Can’t Even Stop These Mets

Normally, if I said to you there was a run scored on an out, you’d assume a fielder’s choice or a sacrifice fly. You’d see the occasional suicide squeeze. In this strange postseason where you don’t have to touch a base to be safe and Daniel Murphy became Babe Ruth, the Mets scored the go-ahead run on a two out strikeout. 

In the sixth, Yoenis Cespedes lead off with a single, and he moved to second on a Lucas Duda sac bunt. I thought he was going for a hit against the shift, but they awarded him with a sac bunt. Cespedes would steal third. Michael Conforto came up with two outs and would strike out:

Then the inning got strange. Wilmer Flores went the other way and hit a sinking line drive to right. It went under the glove of Jorge Soler. Conforto was already around third by the time the ball disappeared in the ivy. 

   
The common joke all over the place was Bartolo Colon could’ve scored on the play if he hit it. However, because of ground rules written in 1912, it was ruled a groundrule double. No runs scored. Conforto to third and Flores to second. They would be stranded, but the Mets escaped with a 3-2 lead. 

That lead would expand in the seventh. Cespedes knocked in David Wright, who had a great game, with a single off of Kyle Schwarber‘s glove. For the second time this series, Schwarber’s inexperience in the outfield cost the Cubs a run. Later in the inning, Murphy would score on a Duda groundout. 

On the mound, Jacob deGrom finally had a good start in Wrigley Field. His final line was 7.0 innings, two earned, one walk, and seven strikeouts. Tyler Clippard held down the eighth, and well Jeurys Familia got the save again. 

In other news, we care about from this game, Murphy did this in the third inning:

He’s now the Mets all time and single postseason homerun leader with six. He also tied a major league record by hitting a homerun in five straight postseason games. 

Wright was terrific. He went 3-4 with two runs, a walk, and a double. Duda snapped out of his funk a bit by going 1-3 with an RBI and no strikeouts. There something else I’m forgetting. 

Oh yeah, after the 5-2 win, the Mets are now one win away from the World Series. I can’t believe it. I can’t wait for tomorrow. 

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Lagares Has Quietly Had a Good Postseason

There has been understandable handwringing over the Mets refusal to play Michael Conforto against lefties. THE handwringing turned into a public outcry after Michael Cuddyer‘s awful game in LF in Game One of the NLDS.

Instead of switching to Conforto against lefties, the Mets went to Juan Lagares. Lagares was the 2014 Gold Glove winner. He was once thought to be the leadoff hitter this year. However, he was injured and underperformed. At the trade deadline, the Mets sought out a CF and landed on Yoenis Cespedes. It made Lagares a platoon player only batting against LHP.
After Game One of the NLDS, he returned to that role starting in Games Three and Five. In the NLDS, he hit .429/.500/.714. He had three runs, two doubles, and a walk. Last night against Jon Lester, he went 2-3 with two runs and a stolen base. In some ways, he’s been the Mets best offensive player not named Daniel Murphy. 

In particular last night, he showed us why Collins once thought of him as a leadoff hitter. He started off the inning with a single and moved to second on a sac bunt. He then watched Lester and was timing his jump. You could see from the seats he was itching to run. He took off and stole third. He then scored on Curtis Granderson‘s sac fly. Lagares manufactured that run with his legs. 

He’s finally showing us why everyone thought he had all of this offensive potential. He’s doing it in the most important time of the year. Even with last night’s misplay, he’s still been a great defensive player. He’s finally putting it all together. You wouldn’t know it because he’s been overshadowed by great pitching and Daniel Murphy. 

He’s quietly having a great postseason. 

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Disregard Mets 0-7 Record Against the Cubs

I’m sure you’ll hear several times over the next week that the Mets are 0-7 against the Cubs. It’s not indicative of what will happen in the NLCS. 

First off, the 1988 Mets beat the Dodgers 10 out of 11 times. Secondly, this is a completely different Mets team. Here is a breakdown of the players who have played against the Cubs this year:

Juan Lagares 1-9 with 1 BB, 1 double, 2Ks
John Mayberry, Jr. 2-12 with 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 K
Daniel Murphy 9-25 with 1 BB, 3 doubles
Michael Cuddyer 2-17 with 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K
Lucas Duda 7-25 with 3 R,  2 BB, 2 RBI, 3 HBP, 1 double, 1 HR, 12 K
Wilmer Flores 4-23 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Kevin Plawecki 3-17 with 2 RBI, 4 K
Curtis Granderson 5-24 with 3 BBs, 2 RBI, 1 double, 6 K
Dilson Herrera 2-11 with 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
Ruben Tejada 1-18 with 1 BB, 8 K

Johnny Monell 1-8 with 4 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0-7 with 2 K
Anthony Recker 2-4 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR, 2 K
Darrell Ceciliani 1-7 with 3 K

Eric Campbell 0-3 with 1 BB, 1 K
Overall, the Mets had a combined 70 ABs from players not on the playoff roster. They went 9-70 against the Cubs this year. There were an additional 50 ABs from players on the playoff roster, who are either on the bench or are platoon players. Those players went 6-50. Of a total of 171 ABs, 120 of them went to players who will not be in the starting lineup in the NLCS. Therefore, how can you glean anything from these games. 

As you may notice, there are no ABs from David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, or Travis d’Arnaud. That’s half of the position players in the current Mets starting lineup. This is more than enough to turn an 0-7 deficit to a winning record. 

I’m confident the Mets changes will be enough to make it to the World Series. 

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Who’s Getting the Big Hit?

In order for the Mets to win tonight, Jacob deGrom needs to be great, and he will be. However, at some point, the Mets will need to get a big hit. Anyone is possible. Here’s why everyone on this roster is capable of it:

Yoenis Cespedes because he’s already homered off of Zack Greinke in this series

Michael Conforto because like Cespedes he has too. 

David Wright because he already has a big hit in this series. 

Curtis Granderson because he’s been the best Mets hitter in this series

Wilmer Flores because it’s an emotional game, and he’s at his best when he’s emotional 

Lucas Duda because he’s due, he’s hit Greinke, and because he knows how to clinch things

Daniel Murphy because he’s clutch, and he knows how to give deGrom run support in this series 

Travis d’Arnaud because he’s had one big game in this series and is due for another

Kirk Nieuwenhuis because he already has a huge pinch hit homerun in a big spot this year

Juan Lagares because he’s more than a glove, and he’s already hit a homerun in Dodger Stadium

Michael Cuddyer because he still has something up his sleeve

Kelly Johnson because we knew the Mets were onto bigger and better things when he homered in his first game as a Met (against the Dodgers)

Kevin Plawecki and/or Matt Reynolds because you never know who’s going to get the big hit

It’ll happen tonight. If you need more inspiration to believe it’s true just remember what happened 19 years ago today:

LETS GO METS!

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Replays Show MLB Doesn’t Know the Rulebook

It all came down to the seventh inning. Terry Collins pushed Noah Syndergaard a little too far. Thor left the game after 6.1 innings with runners on first and third. 

Puzzlingly, Collins would bring on Bartolo Colon. Colon induced a ground ball, and Daniel Murphy made a nice play. He flipped the ball to Ruben Tejada, and I’m not sure what happened next:

You see, the umps ruled Chase Utley safe. No, seriously. They called him safe. You see Tejada missed the bag. It doesn’t matter that Utley didn’t touch the bag. It doesn’t matter he didn’t begin his slide until after the out call was made. MLB will pick and choose which rules they will enforce:

https://twitter.com/chisportsfan03/status/653057143520686080

Here’s another angle:

https://twitter.com/athwayoflife/status/653063091614183424

That’s right, if the rule was properly enforced, it’s an inning ending double play. Instead, Utley is ruled safe, and Tejada is done with a broken right fibula. 

Speaking of a double play, the umpires ruled that it was not a neighborhood play because Murphy’s throw pulled Tejada off the bag. No, seriously. The fact that Tejada thought he touched second and began to spin to throw to first wasn’t indicative that there was a double play chance. 

Yes, I know the Mets bullpen, lead by Addison Reed imploded. The bullpen was handed a 2-1 lead courtesy of Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto homeruns. The game ended there. It became a 5-2 loss. 

The Mets bullpen failed. The umpires failed. Replay failed. MLB failed. 

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