Kelly Johnson
Growing up, watching those 80’s teams I remember going to a game or two when Gary Carter would get out from behind the plate and play on the field. It was a way to give him a day off while keeping his bat in the lineup.
I was thinking of that when I saw a report the Mets were not considering moving either Travis d’Arnaud or Kevin Plawecki out from behind the plate. Personally, I agree that they both help the Mets as catchers. d’Arnaud has hit well, especially for a catcher, while Plawecki has offensive potential. They are also excellent pitch framers. However, I still think it’s important d’Arnaud gets some work to let him play some games at third.
The Plawecki Reason
The first reason is Plawecki is still developing. You don’t want him languishing away on the bench as a backup for 162 game season.
Looking over the 2015 season, the catchers who caught most caught between 112 – 139 games this year. The average amount of games caught between them is about 125 games a season. This leaves Plawecki with only 37 games. If you could find another spot for d’Arnaud once a week, you could have Plawecki catch about two times per week. There’s 26 weeks in the MLB season. If Plawecki can play two games per well, that’ll get him an additional 15 games
It’s still not enough for a developing player, but it’s a lot better.
Injury Factor
d’Arnaud has been named the Mets 2014 and 2015 Opening Day catcher. He didn’t make it through either season without a trip to the DL.
In 2015, they were fluke injuries that landed him on the DL. One injury was a broken pinkie on a hit by pitch. The other was a strained elbow on a play at the plate. I don’t believe d’Arnaud is injury prone. However, it’s getting harder and harder to say that.
Truth is last year he had two separate DL stints costing him around 50 games. With a dismal Mets offense, they had to turn to Plawecki, especially with Anthony Recker and Johnny Monell doing nothing offensively. It’s that reason the Mets will use Plawecki as the backup next year. You don’t want to stunt Plawecki’s development, but d’Arnaud has a bat you don’t want to take out if the lineup.
The best solution is to allow d’Arnaud to play some games at another position to get him some at bats while letting him rest a bit by bit being behind the plate.
The David Wright Factor
Ultimately, I think the reason you let d’Arnaud play some third is because of David Wright. He can’t play more than four games in a row. Assuming he has to take off a game at least once a week, that’s 26 games. He still may need more than that as he re-adjusts to playing over 162 games.
When he returned, he had similar numbers to his whole career. Last year, he hit .289/.379/.434 (yes that includes the right games he played in April). For his career, he has hit .298/.377/.493. Sure, there’s less power, but he’s still a good hitter. It’s a bat they’ll miss when he’s not in the lineup. Right now, it seems the Mets have interest in bringing back Kelly Johnson as a utility player. Presumably, he will play the majority of games Wright doesn’t play.
Johnson is a career .251/.331/.424 hitter. Last year, he hit .250/.304/.414. d’Arnaud hit .268/.340/.485 last year. He’s a better hitter than Johnson. If you’re concerned about defense, Johnson isn’t exactly a Gold Glover. He’s average. There’s no reason d’Arnaud can’t be average out there with some work.
Overall
I think it would help d’Arnaud to stay healthy to get out from behind the plate. It would help Plawecki’s development to get some extra reps out there. It would help the Mets offense to have d’Arnaud’s bat out there when Wright can’t play. This move will help the Mets in 2016 and beyond.
By any measure, the Mets had a pleasantly surprising run this year capturing the 2015 National League pennant. The 2015 Mets weren’t perfect. They had some holes to fill. On top of that, new holes were created by free agency. Can the Mets fill in those holes?
The answer to that question begins with another question – do the Mets actually have money to spend? There are reports out there that suggest they don’t despite the additional postseason revenue. There are various reasons why. However, as a Mets fan, all you care about is what can they spend. The answer may not be what you want to hear:
Alderson pegged this year's opening day payroll at $103M and said 2016's should be "somewhat" higher, with room to add at trade deadline.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) November 4, 2015
Now, the Mets 2015 payroll was $120.4 million. However, a significant portion of that was covered by insurance due to David Wright‘s back injury. By my estimation, the Mets saved about $10 million. If we back that out, it means the Mets paid roughly $110.4 million in salary. Given Sandy Alderson’s statements that the Mets payroll will increase from the 2015 Opening Day payroll of $103 million, we should see the 2016 Opening Day payroll to be around the $110 million it was at the end of last year.
Right now, the Mets payroll obligations are estimated to be at $92 million for 25 players. Note, not all of these players will be on the Opening Day payroll due to various reasons from trades to the fact that the list has eight relievers on it. However, if the Mets keep all of these players, they’re paying them regardless if they’re playing in New York or Las Vegas.
In any event, that means the Mets have roughly $18 million to build the major league roster. That may be a problem because the Mets have question marks at 2B, SS, and/or CF. They also need a versatile player that is competent enough at third to play there semi-regularly. Effectively, this puts an end to my relatively modest Daniel Murphy–Dexter Fowler–Kelly Johnson plan.
That’s problematic because all three were expected to get somewhat reasonable deals Murphy and Fowler were only pegged to get four year deals. It’s not like the plan was Jayson Hayward and Zack Greinke. The plan was Murphy and Fowler. It’s absurd and depressing when you think about it.
It’s even worse when you consider an elite young starting rotation is slated to be paid a combined $7.1 million or $3.9 million less than what they paid for Bartolo Colon last year. It’s worse when you consider there’s no need for a bullpen upgrade.
Honestly, after seeing that comment from Sandy Alderson, I felt deflated a bit. After a pennant, the Mets will not be able to address their issues. It means if their cheap young pitching keeps them in it again, they’ll have to grossly overpay again at the trading deadline.
I’m sorry, but this isn’t how a pennant winner responds to falling just short. This isn’t how a New York team should operate, especially in an uncapped sport. There is no reason the Opening a Day payroll can’t be at least $120 million, which by the way, would’ve ranked them 15th, middle of the pack, last year.
Now, I truly can’t get upset until I see what the Mets do this offseason. They very we may spend more than they’re alluding. The payroll may not significantly rise, but they could pull off some shrewd trades to offset that. With that said, I’m not too enthusiastic at the moment.
We were promised if attendance went up the Mets would spend. Attendance went way up. It’s time for the Mets to finally spend some money.
He’s worked hard to get to this point, and the Mets have rewarded the work by adding Juan Uribe to the World Series roster:
Juan Uribe is on the #Mets World Series roster. Matt Reynolds is off.
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) October 27, 2015
The Case for Uribe
This team turned around with the Uribe trade. He’s been on World Series winners in 2005 and 2010. You’re hoping for a little five year luck there.
Unlike most teams, the Royals have two lefties in the pen with Danny Duffy and Franklin Morales. Adding Uribe gives the Mets an extra right handed bat off the bench. After Michael Cuddyer the Mets can turn to Uribe. This allows Juan Lagares to be a defensive replacement, and Kevin Plawecki to be ready for a Travis d’Arnaud injury. Don’t worry I tapped on every piece of wood within the nearest square mile after typing that.
Additionally, it lengthens the bench. In a way, it’s amazing the Mets playing with a 24 man roster never caught up with them. In actuality, there was no way Matt Reynolds was going to play. At least now, the Mets don’t have a dead roster spot.
I have to say it’s a pretty convincing case. I still don’t like the move.
The Case Against Uribe
The last time the Mets thought Uribe could go, he exacerbated his chest injury. If that happens in the World Series, the Mets will be burning through 3-4 players in one at bat (original player, Uribe, new batter, defensive replacement). If this happens in Citi Field, this team is in real trouble.
The next reason is your backup SS is now Kelly Johnson. He’s only played one game at SS, and that was this year. He’s the DH in Game One. If anything happens to Wilmer Flores, the Mets have a terrible choice to make. Do you lose the DH? Do you move David Wright and his back there? Do you put Uribe there? Or my personal favorite:
Is everyone forgetting they can put Jacob deGrom at SS in a pinch?
— Joe DeMayo (@PSLToFlushing) October 27, 2015
Yes, the Mets can put Reynolds on the roster for the injured player, but that’s only AFTER the game. If anything happens to Flores, you’re playing a game without a SS [insert Flores isn’t a SS jokes here]. How quickly the Mets have forgotten that Flores almost had to leave Game 4 of the NLCS after hitting his head.
Furthermore, you’re risking a lot for someone who’s not a terrific hitter. In his playoff career, he has hit .204/.241/.338. As a Met, he has hit .219/.301/.430. As a pinch hitter this year, he has hit .190/.320/.333. He’s 0-4 this year as a DH. It’s just too much to risk for someone that really only plays third and just doesn’t hit the way you think he does.
Yes, he can change a game and a series with one swing of the bat. It still doesn’t change the fact that this move is extremely risky. I hope he does not only because he’s a Mets fan, but also he’s a big part of this team.
The Royals named Edison Volquez as their Game One starter. The Volquez-Johnny Cueto decision wasn’t like what the Mets faced before in the playoffs. However, it merited consideration, and the Royals went with Volquez.
This year Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.308 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. That’s where the good ends for Volquez. In his career, he is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s been slightly better this postseason going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.1 K/9. In the end, what matters most is how he’s pitched against the Mets:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB and 2 K
Combined 18-99 (.182 BA), 12 BB (.270 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.253 slugging), 11 RBI, and 22 K
Here’s how the bench has fared against Volquez:
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kelly Johnson 4-14 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-0
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench 6-23 (.263) with 3 BB (.346 OBP), 2 double (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, 1 K
In essence, Volquez had pitched well against the Mets. However, the Mets players have gotten to him. When the Mets have made contact, they’ve hit homeruns. It’ll be tough to hit homers in a stadium like Kauffman.
Fortunately, the Mets have better pitching than the Royals. If the Mets pitch how they should, they will need just one of those blasts to win the game, similar to the NLDS.
Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst.
With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings.
Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?
Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K
Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:
Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K
In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:
Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K
Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this? Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow? It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:
March/April .208/.269/.349
May .222/.282/.364
June .235/.298/.367
July .252/.324/.365
August .243/.305/.412
September/October .275/.335/.426
Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will.
With the Mets playing in Kansas City to begin the World Series, they will have to choose a player to DH. There are a number of options.
Best Defensive Lineup
Late in games this postseason, the Mets have inserted Juan Lagares into the game for defensive purposes. This has moved Yoenis Cespedes to left and Michael Conforto to the bench.
With a spacious Kaufman Stadium outfield, the Mets could start the game with this defensive alignment and move Conforto to DH. This becomes more of an option because Lagares is having a good postseason. It’s a way to maximize the defense while getting Conforto’s bat into the game.
Left-handed Bats
The Royals have all right handed starters. If past history is any indication, Terry Collins will try to get as many lefties in the lineup as possible.
That would eliminate the Lagares option but keep Conforto in the lineup. The lefties on the bench now are Kelly Johnson and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Given the choice for a first choice off the bench, Collins has consistently gone for Johnson over Nieuwenhuis. Neither has much experience against presumptive Game One starter Johnny Cueto (Johnson 1-6; Nieuwenhuis 1-3).
In this circumstance, Collins would go with Johnson, who is his only backup infielder with major league experience. If something happens, Matt Reynolds will be playing his first career game in the World Series.
Michael Cuddyer
Unlike most of the Mets roster, Michael Cuddyer has played extensively in the AL. However, despite playing 10 years in the AL, he’s only played 37 games at DH.
As a DH, he has hit .265/.344/.402. This is similar to his career numbers of .277/.344/.461. At Kaufman Stadium, he’s hitting .281/.371/.531. One note of caution there is that was against some terrible Royals teams. The Mets are not facing a terrible Royals team in the World Series.
Overall, he’s waited the longest of all the Mets position players to play in his first World Series. I’m sure he wants to contribute and may have a big hit in him. Sometimes that makes a dangerous player.
My Pick
At the end of the day, I want the best team out there. In my opinion, that is Lagares in CF and Conforto at DH. The Royals put a lot of balls in play, so the Mets will need an OF that covers a lot ground.
Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:
April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0
- Juan Lagares CF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- John Mayberry, Jr. RF
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Dilson Herrera 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Matt Harvey P
July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Ruben Tejada SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Wilmer Flores 2B
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
- Juan Lagares CF
August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Michael Conforto LF
- Bartolo Colon P
September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
October 21, 2015 (estimated)
- Curtis Granderson RF
- David Wright 3B
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Steven Matz P
Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight.
I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series.
It’s no secret that Lucas Duda is struggling at the plate. Instead of sticking with him, like the Mets have with David Wright, the team is actively considering benching Duda in favor of Kelly Johnson against righties. I’m baffled.
Yes, Duda hasn’t been good, but neither has Johnson. He’s gone 1-4 with two strikeouts in his pinch hitting attempts with two strikeouts. His career triple slash line in the postseason is .182/.250/.364 with no RBIs. I know Duda hasn’t been great, but it’s not like Johnson is even a good option.
Furthermore, let’s look at Johnson’s numbers against the Cubs starters:
Jon Lester 1-15 with one RBI, two walks, and four strikeouts.
Jake Arrieta 0-6 with three walks and four strikeouts.
Kyle Hendricks 1-2 with one RBI and one strikeout
Jason Hammel 9-30 with one double, two homeruns, six RBIs, one walk, and 10 strikeouts.
Looking over these numbers, you can only justify starting him against Hammel. I’m discounting the Hendricks stats to an extent because it’s only been three plate appearances. Besides Hammel, Johnson has no place in the starting lineup. He isn’t the hitter Duda is, and he’s historically been a poor postseason performer.
The Mets need to get Duda going. With the weather blowing out in Wrigley Field, it should be ripe for Duda to breakout. He better because Kelly Johnson isn’t the answer.
With all of Daniel Murphy‘s heroics, everyone is questioning whether the Mets will re-sign him. As the Mets entered the playoffs, the same question surrounded Yoenis Cespedes.
They are just two of the pending free agents on the Mets roster. The full list:
- Daniel Murphy
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Kelly Johnson
- Juan Uribe
- Bartolo Colon
- Tyler Clippard
Six free agents. On the one hand, we can all safely assume they’re all gone. They very well might. Their departures may hurt for different reasons. Personally, I’ll miss Murphy most of all.
However, I’m not focused on that number six. I’m focused on the six wins the Mets need to win the World Series. What happens after that, happens. There’s no control over that. The only thing we can control is our focus. I’m choosing to enjoy this now and worry later. Let’s celebrate first and deal with everything else later.
Lets Go Mets!
In Game One of the NLCS, the Mets benched Lucas Duda in favor of Michael Cuddyer. They did this even though Duda has gone 3-8 with a homer off of Jon Lester. They did this even though Cuddyer is 5-19 off Lester with no extra base hits. It gets better:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/655472440089427968
Seriously? Kelly Johnson has been good since coming here. However, he’s not Duda. Furthermore, this doesn’t address the real drain on the lineup – David Wright.
Wright is hitting .053 in the playoffs. Let that sink in .053! Yes, he’s played well defensively, and he’s drawn some walks. But .053 is .053. He’s currently 0 for his last 16. Are the Mets talking about moving him down in the lineup? He is batting second. Are they talking about sitting him in favor of Johnson? No.
Nor should they. The idea of sitting your best players in October is absurd unless they are injured or if a particular pitcher just had their number. None of that was present last night.
Duda needs to stay in the lineup the rest of the playoffs. Same goes for Wright. You don’t overreact to a cold streak like the Mets did yesterday.