Juan Lagares
Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst.
With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings.
Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?
Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K
Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:
Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K
In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:
Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K
Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this? Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow? It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:
March/April .208/.269/.349
May .222/.282/.364
June .235/.298/.367
July .252/.324/.365
August .243/.305/.412
September/October .275/.335/.426
Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will.
With the Mets playing in Kansas City to begin the World Series, they will have to choose a player to DH. There are a number of options.
Best Defensive Lineup
Late in games this postseason, the Mets have inserted Juan Lagares into the game for defensive purposes. This has moved Yoenis Cespedes to left and Michael Conforto to the bench.
With a spacious Kaufman Stadium outfield, the Mets could start the game with this defensive alignment and move Conforto to DH. This becomes more of an option because Lagares is having a good postseason. It’s a way to maximize the defense while getting Conforto’s bat into the game.
Left-handed Bats
The Royals have all right handed starters. If past history is any indication, Terry Collins will try to get as many lefties in the lineup as possible.
That would eliminate the Lagares option but keep Conforto in the lineup. The lefties on the bench now are Kelly Johnson and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Given the choice for a first choice off the bench, Collins has consistently gone for Johnson over Nieuwenhuis. Neither has much experience against presumptive Game One starter Johnny Cueto (Johnson 1-6; Nieuwenhuis 1-3).
In this circumstance, Collins would go with Johnson, who is his only backup infielder with major league experience. If something happens, Matt Reynolds will be playing his first career game in the World Series.
Michael Cuddyer
Unlike most of the Mets roster, Michael Cuddyer has played extensively in the AL. However, despite playing 10 years in the AL, he’s only played 37 games at DH.
As a DH, he has hit .265/.344/.402. This is similar to his career numbers of .277/.344/.461. At Kaufman Stadium, he’s hitting .281/.371/.531. One note of caution there is that was against some terrible Royals teams. The Mets are not facing a terrible Royals team in the World Series.
Overall, he’s waited the longest of all the Mets position players to play in his first World Series. I’m sure he wants to contribute and may have a big hit in him. Sometimes that makes a dangerous player.
My Pick
At the end of the day, I want the best team out there. In my opinion, that is Lagares in CF and Conforto at DH. The Royals put a lot of balls in play, so the Mets will need an OF that covers a lot ground.
Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:
April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0
- Juan Lagares CF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- John Mayberry, Jr. RF
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Dilson Herrera 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Matt Harvey P
July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Ruben Tejada SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Wilmer Flores 2B
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
- Juan Lagares CF
August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Michael Conforto LF
- Bartolo Colon P
September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
October 21, 2015 (estimated)
- Curtis Granderson RF
- David Wright 3B
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Steven Matz P
Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight.
I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series.
There has been understandable handwringing over the Mets refusal to play Michael Conforto against lefties. THE handwringing turned into a public outcry after Michael Cuddyer‘s awful game in LF in Game One of the NLDS.
Instead of switching to Conforto against lefties, the Mets went to Juan Lagares. Lagares was the 2014 Gold Glove winner. He was once thought to be the leadoff hitter this year. However, he was injured and underperformed. At the trade deadline, the Mets sought out a CF and landed on Yoenis Cespedes. It made Lagares a platoon player only batting against LHP.
After Game One of the NLDS, he returned to that role starting in Games Three and Five. In the NLDS, he hit .429/.500/.714. He had three runs, two doubles, and a walk. Last night against Jon Lester, he went 2-3 with two runs and a stolen base. In some ways, he’s been the Mets best offensive player not named Daniel Murphy.
In particular last night, he showed us why Collins once thought of him as a leadoff hitter. He started off the inning with a single and moved to second on a sac bunt. He then watched Lester and was timing his jump. You could see from the seats he was itching to run. He took off and stole third. He then scored on Curtis Granderson‘s sac fly. Lagares manufactured that run with his legs.
He’s finally showing us why everyone thought he had all of this offensive potential. He’s doing it in the most important time of the year. Even with last night’s misplay, he’s still been a great defensive player. He’s finally putting it all together. You wouldn’t know it because he’s been overshadowed by great pitching and Daniel Murphy.
He’s quietly having a great postseason.
I really thought Matt Harvey was going to pitch a no-hitter. He had the Cubs batters off balance. It seemed he already got his tremendous defensive play with Wilmer Flores leaping to snare a sure to be line drive base hit. He had all the run support he needed from a Daniel Murphy first inning homerun (of course) off of Jon Lester.
Then the fifth inning happened. By the way, the fifth inning is the reason why I think the Mets are going to win the World Series this year.
Harvey started the inning by plunking Anthony Rizzo. He then let up a line drive to Starlin Castro. Immediately off the bat I thought right to Juan Lagares, easy out. Lagares misplayed it into an RBI double. The score was tied 1-1. Then the Javier Baez got the Cubs first true hit off of Harvey:
It was Yoenis Cespedes with the “Throwing Out of Baserunners.” The Cubs rally was over.
The Mets responded in the fifth. Flores and Lagares got basehits. Harvey botched a sac bunt attempt leaving runners on first and second. The Mets were lucky Kris Bryant dropped the ball on what could’ve been an inning ending double play. Curtis Granderson then hit an RBI single to reclaim the lead.
The Mets responded to the Cubs run. They would score in three consecutive innings. In the sixth, Travis d’Arnaud hit a homerun into the homerun apple. In the seventh, Lagares would single, and this time, Harvey would bunt him over. Lagares was gradually expanding his lead, and then he took off and stole third. This allowed him to score on a shallow fly ball to left.
It was a tremendous slide by Lagares to just beat the tag. Tim Teufel was smart to send Lagares because he was taking advantage of Kyle Schwarber‘s inexperience in LF (he was a catcher in the minors). It was a good throw, but it took him a while to throw it. Schwarber would be heard from again in the eighth when he hit a homerun to CF, London, or Vancouver. I can’t tell because he hit it so far I think it crashed through a window on a flight out of Laguardia.
The Schwarber homerun knocked Harvey out of the game. It took that long homerun to do it. The Cubs couldn’t even knock him out of the game when a comeback line drive hit Harvey in his pitching arm. His final line was 7.2 innings, four hits, two earned, two walks (one intentional), and non strikeouts. He walked off the mound to a well earned standing ovation. Terry Collins brought in Jeurys Familia, who recorded the four out save.
The save was punctuated by a Murphy sliding stop and throw to first. He looks like he can do everything right now. So do the Mets. They beat the Cubs 4-2, and they’re up 1-0 in the series. They looked like a pennant winner. They looked like a champion.
I’m sure you’ll hear several times over the next week that the Mets are 0-7 against the Cubs. It’s not indicative of what will happen in the NLCS.
First off, the 1988 Mets beat the Dodgers 10 out of 11 times. Secondly, this is a completely different Mets team. Here is a breakdown of the players who have played against the Cubs this year:
Juan Lagares 1-9 with 1 BB, 1 double, 2Ks
John Mayberry, Jr. 2-12 with 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 K
Daniel Murphy 9-25 with 1 BB, 3 doubles
Michael Cuddyer 2-17 with 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K
Lucas Duda 7-25 with 3 R, 2 BB, 2 RBI, 3 HBP, 1 double, 1 HR, 12 K
Wilmer Flores 4-23 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Kevin Plawecki 3-17 with 2 RBI, 4 K
Curtis Granderson 5-24 with 3 BBs, 2 RBI, 1 double, 6 K
Dilson Herrera 2-11 with 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
Ruben Tejada 1-18 with 1 BB, 8 K
Johnny Monell 1-8 with 4 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0-7 with 2 K
Anthony Recker 2-4 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR, 2 K
Darrell Ceciliani 1-7 with 3 K
Eric Campbell 0-3 with 1 BB, 1 K
Overall, the Mets had a combined 70 ABs from players not on the playoff roster. They went 9-70 against the Cubs this year. There were an additional 50 ABs from players on the playoff roster, who are either on the bench or are platoon players. Those players went 6-50. Of a total of 171 ABs, 120 of them went to players who will not be in the starting lineup in the NLCS. Therefore, how can you glean anything from these games.
As you may notice, there are no ABs from David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, or Travis d’Arnaud. That’s half of the position players in the current Mets starting lineup. This is more than enough to turn an 0-7 deficit to a winning record.
I’m confident the Mets changes will be enough to make it to the World Series.
In order for the Mets to win tonight, Jacob deGrom needs to be great, and he will be. However, at some point, the Mets will need to get a big hit. Anyone is possible. Here’s why everyone on this roster is capable of it:
Yoenis Cespedes because he’s already homered off of Zack Greinke in this series
Michael Conforto because like Cespedes he has too.
David Wright because he already has a big hit in this series.
Curtis Granderson because he’s been the best Mets hitter in this series
Wilmer Flores because it’s an emotional game, and he’s at his best when he’s emotional
Lucas Duda because he’s due, he’s hit Greinke, and because he knows how to clinch things
Daniel Murphy because he’s clutch, and he knows how to give deGrom run support in this series
Travis d’Arnaud because he’s had one big game in this series and is due for another
Kirk Nieuwenhuis because he already has a huge pinch hit homerun in a big spot this year
Juan Lagares because he’s more than a glove, and he’s already hit a homerun in Dodger Stadium
Michael Cuddyer because he still has something up his sleeve
Kelly Johnson because we knew the Mets were onto bigger and better things when he homered in his first game as a Met (against the Dodgers)
Kevin Plawecki and/or Matt Reynolds because you never know who’s going to get the big hit
It’ll happen tonight. If you need more inspiration to believe it’s true just remember what happened 19 years ago today:
LETS GO METS!
If you’ve read this site before, you know I’m a big fan of Lucas Duda. So is my son. I’m rooting for him even if he’s having a rough NLDS.
He’s 2-15 with two walks and nine strikeouts. That’s a triple slash line of .133/.188/.133. That’s ugly. It’s hard to justify giving him playing time. With that said, he has to start in Game Five tomorrow. Now, unlike most, I’ll admit my bias here. I like Duda as a player. However, that’s not the only reason I want him to start tomorrow.
He’s had some success against Zack Greinke. He’s 3-12 with one homerun, one RBI, and two walks. It is a small sample size, and he went 0-3 against him in Game Two. With his cold streak, you could argue it’s time to play someone else.
If you sit Duda, then who do you play? One popular opinion floating around is moving Daniel Murphy to first and starting Kelly Johnson at second. That shouldn’t be an option with Johnson going 0-9 against Greinke. He’s also 0-3 with two strikeouts in his pinch hitting appearances this postseason.
The next option would be Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer has had some success against Greinke as well going 10-40 with a double and a homer. He’s also struck out 10 times against Greinke. Given the comparability of Duda’s and Cuddyer’s numbers against Greinke you could argue the Mets should start Cuddyer, which is something no Mets fan is lobbying for right now.
However, I believe you have to start Duda over Cuddyer. If you don’t, this leaves your right handed pinch hitting options to Kevin Plawecki, your backup catcher, and Juan Lagares, the Mets defensive replacement. The Dodgers will have three lefties in the pen assuming Clayton Kershaw isn’t available. I’d prefer Cuddyer pinch hitting in this spot over Lagares or Plawecki.
Lastly, Duda has been extremely streaky this year. He can flip the switch at any moment. He did go 0-4 last night, but he also gave one a ride last night. Hopefully, it was a sign he’s coming out of it. It’s reason enough to play him tomorrow. I like focusing on this reason other than the lack of better options.
So, I’m hoping the Mets play Duda, and he gives one a ride. He’s done it before against Greinke. He can do it again.
An unfortunate part of Mets history is Willie Mays falling down in the outfield during the 1973 World Series. It was a sign Mays was done in his last season.
Michael Cuddyer had a similar experience last night. He misplayed two potential flyball outs into doubles. He struck out on a pitch that almost bounced in the grass in front of home plate. It was an ugly game for him. Fortunately, his teammates bailed him out. He would come out in the seventh for defense. His nightmare game ended.
It also may have ended his chances to be a starting outfielder in this series. His only chance was to be the right handed bat in a LF platoon with Michael Conforto. After last night, I’m assuming Cuddyer stays on the bench against lefties, and Juan Lagares starts in center. Since Lucas Duda was in the lineup against Clayton Kershaw, he’s not sitting against lefties in the playoffs.
Cuddyer has excelled in that role. It’s where he’s needed right now. Cuddyer didn’t cost the Mets on Friday, but if he keeps getting on the field, he eventually will hurt them. However, Cuddyer is still a big asset as a PH and a mentor. He could still get some playing time in a double switch.
Cuddyer is still a big part of this team. I look forward to him getting a big pinch hit this postseason to prove it.
Mets fans have been waiting nine years for this game. They were treated to a special, record setting game:
.@ClaytonKersh22 & @JdeGrom19 each have 11 Ks, making this 1st #postseason game for both starters to reach feat. pic.twitter.com/6OvT1zQGQG
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) October 10, 2015
Everyone expected a pitcher’s duel, and both teams delivered. Clayton Kershaw pitched 6.2 innings allowing four hits, three earned (two were inherited runners scored), four walks, and 11 strikeouts. Jacob deGrom was better. He threw 121 pitches over seven innings. He allowed five hits, one intentional walk, and 13 strikeouts. He was Tom Seaver-esque:
.@JdeGrom19's 13 Ks tie Tom Seaver's @Mets #postseason record (1973, #NLCS Game 1). pic.twitter.com/WAB9qkhXO0
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) October 10, 2015
This was the type of game if you have no rooting interest, you enjoy every minute of it. When you’re a Mets fan, you live and die with every pitch. It’s tense. It’s trying. It’s worth it. I actually checked with my Dad to see if his defribulator was working. I took it that since he replied it was.
Personally, I don’t think I was breathing until the seventh inning. deGrom and Kershaw, though dominant, were seemingly in trouble every inning. Michael Cuddyer, and his extra shoddy defense, made sure of that.
Up until the seventh inning, the only run was from a fourth inning Daniel Murphy home run. It was a special moment. Murphy was first around for the second collapse in 2008. He’s the second longest tenured position player. He fought to be an everyday player. With one swing of the bat, he showed everyone he deserved this chance.
Ironically, on a night the Mets sat Michael Conforto because of Kershaw, only the Mets lefties got hits off of Kershaw. However, the Mets batters did their job in the seventh. Lucas Duda walked. Ruben Tejada fought back from an 0-2 count to walk. After a deGrom sacrifice, Curtis Granderson battled to walk. The bases were loaded with two outs, and Mattingly panicked.
He lifted Kershaw and brought in Pedro Baez. He looked nervous. He got David Wright to a full count, and Wright delivered with a two RBI single. I screamed and woke up the house. It was worth it. My celebration was something like this:
One down. 10 to go. #LGM #Degrominant #PartyLikeIts1986 pic.twitter.com/JgilPHDLWn
— Brooklyn Cyclones (@BKCyclones) October 10, 2015
I breathed a little easier when Juan Lagares came in for Cuddyer shifting Yoenis Cespedes to left. Of course, Tyler Clippard allowed a run in the eighth giving me angina again. Terry Collins didn’t let it get out of control. He brought in Jeurys Familia, who got ended the rally, and earned the four out save preserving the Mets 3-1 victory.
Overall, this night wasn’t about Murphy, or Wright, or the fans who waited nine years for this moment. This was about deGrom. He has answered every call in his career. He was Rookie of the Year. He was an All Star. He earned this start, and he more than delivered. He was better than the Franchise.
The Mets are up 1-0 in the series. Later tonight, we’re expecting another pitcher’s duel, and the Mets are sending out the hottest pitcher in baseball. I like the Mets chances. Lets Go Mets!