Jacob deGrom
Look, this is Sandy Alderson’s team. He decided to keep the players he kept and trade the players he traded. He pulled off the trades and signed the free agents. However, he was able to do a lot of what he did because he was left with good players after Omar Minaya was terminated.
Here are the players in the 40 man roster who have a link to Omar Minaya (asterisked players are players obtained with players combined by Minaya and Alderson):
Jerry Blevins – obtained for 2010 draft pick Matt den Dekker.
Eric Campbell – 2008 draft pick.
Darrell Ceciliani – 2009 draft pick.
Travis d’Arnaud – part of the R.A. Dickey trade. Dickey was a free agent signing. Josh Thole was a 2005 draft pick. Mike Nickeas was initially obtained by trade in 2006.
Jacob deGrom – 2010 draft pick.
Lucas Duda – 2007 draft pick.
Jeurys Familia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Wilmer Flores – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Erik Goeddel – 2010 draft pick.
Matt Harvey – 2010 draft pick
Dilson Herrera* – part of Marlon Byrd/John Buck trade. Buck was part of the Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Juan Lagares – 2006 amateur free agent signing.
Steven Matz – 2009 draft pick.
Jenrry Mejia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Akeel Morris -2010 draft pick.
Daniel Murphy – 2006 draft pick.
Bobby Parnell – 2005 draft pick.
Addison Reed* – obtained in exchange for Matt Koch and Miller Diaz (signed by Mets in 2009).
Hansel Robles – 2008 amateur free agent.
Noah Syndergaard – part of Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Ruben Tejada – 2006 amateur free agent.
Again, these players are in the roster because Alderson kept them. The decision of who to keep and trade is important. That is what makes them Alderson’s players and team. Additionally, while It was Alderson that hired Terry Collins, it was Minaya who brought him into the Mets organization.
However, it is important to truly acknowledge Minaya’s role, especially when he has been unfairlyand wrongly marginalized.
You see I was on the same Jet Blue flight as Omar Minaya. The photo with this post was Minaya and me in the terminal before the flight. He was accessible to Mets fans who wanted to shake his hand and take a picture. No one, and I mean no one, had the “courage” to mock him on the flight.
Additionally, this should dispel the notion that Minaya left the Mets with a depleted farm system. On the contrary, he built a strong farm system that helped make up this team. Minaya had his faults, and he probably deserved to be fired when he was. That doesn’t mean we should ignore his work.
It doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t extend our gratitude to him for what he left behind.
Now that the Mets have clinched the NL East, the time is fast approaching to set the NLDS roster. Keep in mind, this is for the NLDS only. The Mets can the roster if they advance to the NLCS.
I’ve made some changes to my prior analysis. The reason is due to injuries to players like Juan Uribe. Another reason was the possibility that Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon may move to the bullpen.
Note, this is not what I would do, but rather, what I think the Mets will do. I am taking into consideration the Dodgers lefty heavy starting rotation and lineup. Without further ado, here’s my best guess:
Catchers
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
Outfielders
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Rotation
15. Matt Harvey
16. Jacob deGrom
17. Noah Syndergaard
18. Steven Matz
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Tyler Clippard
21. Addison Reed
22. Hansel Robles
23. Sean Gilmartin
24. Jon Niese
25. Bartolo Colon
I’m not 100% confident in this. I could see Uribe getting healthy enough to play knocking EY, Lagares, or Johnson out of the lineup. With all the lefties, I could see Eric Campbell or Dilson Herrera (3-4 with a walk, a homer, two runs, and a two RBIs on Sunday) making the team as well.
I also think there is real competition and consideration for the last three bullpen spots. Erik Goeddel has been great all year (when healthy). Carlos Torres is a Terry Collins’ favorite, who may make the team if healthy. Logan Verrett has made his car all year bouncing between starting and reliever. If Colon takes Matz’s spot in the rotation, there will be more bullpen spots because the Mets won’t put Matz in the bullpen.
No matter who is on the roster I’m excited for the playoffs again. Lets Go Mets!
Its fitting that Matt Harvey is taking the mound today with the Mets having an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot. His absence last year was presumed to be a reason why the Mets didn’t go all out last year to try to get into the playoffs.
With Harvey healthy, along with the emergence of Jacob deGrom last year and Noah Syndergaard this year, the Mets will be going to the playoffs. No matter what you think of Harvey, and how everything has gone down, you can’t deny the wonderful season he’s had.
In his first post-Tommy John season, he’s gone 12-7 with a 2.80 ERA, 171 strikeouts (8.7 per nine), and a 1.019 WHIP in 176.2 innings. Keep in mind that today he’s going over 180 with a other start in the season before the playoffs. If the Mets go to the World Series, he may very well go over the 200-215 “loose cap” Sandy Alderdon wanted.
In any event, Harvey gave the Mets their first glimmer of hope in 2013. His absence was a dark cloud over the 2014 season. His return was a big part of the 2015 turn around. After last year, he promised the playoffs to Terry Collins:
Terry Collins said after the game @MattHarvey33 came up to him & said "We're going to do it next year." Terry added "Matt doesn't lie to me"
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 28, 2014
Harvey can now make good on that promise today. With his hard work and dedication, Harvey has earned this. There’s no one I would rather have on that mound to start the game.
Lets Go Mets!
Terry Collins is 100% correct that you worry about getting to the playoffs, and then you let the chips fall where they may. I know I’m in the minority on this, but I don’t want the Mets fighting for homefield in the NLDS.
The first reason is the rotation. We may not know who the fourth starter is, but we do know that Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard will get starts. We also know Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke will start Games 1 & 2. With Syndergaard’s home/road splits, I don’t want the Mets to have a reason to start Thor in Game 2 to keep him at Citi Field over Harvey. I like the idea of coming home and having a huge edge in the pitching matchup with Thor at home.
The second reason is the Mets offense. Kershaw and Greinke are hard enough to hit. I know the Mets will be hitting in the shadows at Dodger Stadium, but the Mets hitters are better on the road. Yoenis Cespedes hits .220/.283/.484 at Citi Field. Daniel Murphy is hitting .256/.296/.429. Curtis Granderson is hitting .236/.331/.415 (although his Dodger Stadium numbers are similar). Travis d’Arnaud is .252/.320/.461. The Mets offense travels better. Let the have a better shot at getting going early in the playoffs than struggle at home.
The final and most important reason is the importance of Games 3 & 4. The Mets would be coming home either down 0-2, tied 1-1, or up 2-0. If you’re down 0-2, there’s no place you’d rather be at home to stave off elimination. You’d also rather be home tied so you have a shot to go up 2-1 in front of a rabid fan base. If the Mets come home up 2-0, after beating Kershaw and Greinke, series over.
Therefore, I don’t think homefield advantage is something you don’t want to get. Just get the team healthy and ready for the NLDS.
Even though the Mets lost, the Mets Magic Number is now 6 because the Nationals lost to the Orioles. With the Mets having two Rule 5 picks pitching in a game, and both of the Mets young catchers getting into the game, I thought the best choice for magic number 6 would be Kelly Shoppach:
In 2012, the 74-88 Mets traded for the impending free agent Shoppach for a player to be named later. The idea was to get a good look at him to see if the team wanted to re-sign him and/or to get him to work with Josh Thole. Neither one would be back.
Shoppach only hit .203/.276/.342 in 28 games. His play did not inspire the Mets to re-sign him. Thole would be moved in the famed R.A. Dickey trade that netted the Mets 2015 cornerstones, Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud.
The player to be named in the Shoppach deal was Pedro Beato, a former Rule 5 draft pick like Sean Gilmartin is this year. We did learn this year the player to be named later was almost Jacob deGrom, which would’ve been disastrous. Note, Sandy Alderson was reported to be alright with trading deGrom at the time until one of his advisors warned him not to make the deal.
But I digress. The seeds of the 2015 Mets were laid in the 2012 offseason. Much of the way the roster is currently constituted has to do with the Shoppach trade and his faired as a Met. If he succeeded, it’s possible he stays, and who knows what happens with d’Arnaud from there? Maybe nothing changes? Maybe Shoppach isn’t as effective a mentor as John Buck. My doctor won’t let me address the deGrom possibilities.
So as the Shoppach trade arguably set the wheels in motion, let’s offer a hat tip to Magic Man Number 6 Kelly Shoppach.
When the Mets added Addison Reed right before the waiver trade deadline, the Mets had their sights set on a shutdown 7-8-9 featuring three closers. So far, each of them have performed extremely well.
You know what’s shocking? Even though the Mets have had the Addison Reed-Tyler Clippard–Jeurys Familia triumvirate together for three weeks, they only appeared together in the same game only three times. They’ve never collectively blown a lead, but the tandem has only resulted in one save. Like last night, it had more to do with the Mets tacking on eighth inning runs more than anything.
In any event, Mets fans can be confident the bullpen can hold leads and/or keep the Mets in a game. I also believe the Mets will ride this trio hard because the Mets starters go deep into games. Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey average 6.1 innings per start (average rounded down to nearest third of an inning). Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz average 6.0 innings per start (major league starts only). Bartolo Colon averages six innings per start. Jon Niese isn’t going to start in the playoffs.
If you’re starters are going at least six, you only need your triumvirate. If your starters are going less than five, you’re in trouble anyway. Even if you need to pull a starter early, there are viable options. Hansel Robles has been terrific, especially in the second half with a 2.60 ERA, 0.904 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, and a triple slash of .173/.250/.429. He’s been good enough to consider him as part of a 6-7-8-9 shut down bullpen.
In a do or die game, Terry Collins has shown he will manage accordingly. He will have a quick hook and trust his key bullpen arms. If he will lean heavily on these three or four guys that’s good news. Familia for one has shown the ability to go multiple innings. I imagine Collins is going to ride him like Joe Torre rode Mariano Rivera (calm down, it’s only a usage comparison).
For people worrying about the 11 runs allowed by the bullpen on Sunday, don’t. Robles had a hick up. He’s allowed. Eric O’Flaherty pitched in that game while the game was still in the balance. He won’t pitch in the playoffs. I’m going to discount this game especially with the rough Robles outing and the relievers that appeared in the game.
Overall, the Mets bullpen is in great shape heading into the playoffs. They can stretch out their main four guys in a do or die game. These guys can keep a game close or hold a lead. I’m even confident after the last Nationals series, Collins will deploy them properly and out them in a position to succeed.
Surprisingly, the bullpen is a major strength of this team . . . even if no one is saying it.
Even after all the trades, Mets fans knew/believed that the Mets would only go as far as their young pitching would take them. Mr he main focus was on the Matt Harvey–Jacob deGrom 1-2 punch.
The problem is the rest of the NL has pretty good 1-2 punches in their own right, and that’s before you take Harvey’s innings limits into account. Let’s see who the NL playoff teams have:
Dodgers
Cardinals
Cubs
Pirates
With these matchups, you’d imagine the NL playoffs will be all about pitching. You can imagine the Mets being anywhere from up 2-0 to down 0-2. This is what makes Noah Syndergaard so important. He can give the Mets a lead in the series, put the other team on the brink, or get the Mets back in a series.
Thor has answered every call thus far in a stellar rookie season. His games against the Nationals are much bigger than what he’ll experience this afternoon. Although, I suspect the crowd may have a little more juice. I’ll have faith in him no matter what happens today.
October is going to become Hammer Time!
This is a huge start for Steven Matz. As a local kid from Long Island, it’s his opportunity to stand up and proclaim, this is the Mets town. It’s time for a man named Steven to stand up and declare:
In all seriousness, Matz has something more important to stake his claim – a postseason roster spot. Right now the postseason rotation is still in flux. It seems the only one assured of a spot is Jacob deGrom.
Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard both have innings limit issues. Jon Niese has been utterly ineffective. Bartolo Colon has beaten up on the NL East and sub-.500 teams. Logan Verrett is nothing more than a spot starter. There’s an opening for Matz, and frankly a left handed starter, with the Dodgers coming up in the NLDS.
The Dodgers feature a number of big left handed bats with Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, and Chase Utley, who you know is chomping at the bit to beat the Mets again. It would be great if the Mets could throw a lefty starter out there to neutralize those bats. It’s all the more important without a lefty in the bullpen. Niese has shown it shouldn’t be him.
This will be the last Mets opponent over .500 until the last series of the season. The Yankees are in a dog fight in the AL East and Wild Card. They need the series a lot more than the Mets do. Most likely, he will face Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Greg Bird. It’s a good primer.
Matz needs to step up. He needs to go out there tonight and pitch like the ace the Mets fans think he is. I want to see his grandfather celebrating all game long. If we see it, it means Matz is pitching well. It means he’s securing a postseason start. It means the Mets will have a better chance of winning the NLDS.
It may lead further towards the Mets taking back New York. It may see mad, but it may become Steven’s Island.
Let me start with the preface that the Mets are going to win the NL East, and they may still get homefield advantage in the NLDS against the Dodgers. However, doesn’t September losses to the Marlins just seem bigger?
It just seemed like this was another poor start for Jacob deGrom in what not too long ago seemed like a potential cyGrom season. Tonight, he gave up 10 hits and six earned in only five innings. deGrom is the key to a Mets possible World Series run, and it appears like he’s falling apart at the seams. I checked Twitter during the game, and I found out he really wasn’t:
First time deGrom has allowed double-digit hits this season and just the second time in his career. (12 last year vs. Cardinals).
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) September 16, 2015
https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/643948706375561217
However, I still felt like Chicken Little, so I checked Baseball Reference. Aha! deGrom has been worse in the second half. He was a superhuman deGrominator going 9-6 with a 2.14 ERA, 0.924 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9 in the first half. Coming into tonight, he was 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, and a 10.4 K/9 in the second half. So yeah, he’s been pretty much the same pitcher in both halves of the season.
That’s the thing with losses like tonight. You tend to overreact. You make deGrom’s outing out to be worse than it was. You focus on another poor Eric O’Flaherty outing. You miss things like David Wright hitting an RBI double and going 1-2 with two walks, a run scored, and an RBI. You miss Michael Conforto going 2-3 with a walk, an RBI, and a run scored. You grumbled when Bobby Parnell came into the game while neglecting the fact that he had a good, scoreless inning.
The Mets won eight straight. They were due for a clunker. That was tonight. It seemed like they could do nothing right, including but not limited to Erik Goeddel pulling a Shawn Estes when he seemingly was trying to plunk Tom Koehler as retaliation for him plunking Yoenis Cespedes. This was further compounded with my man, Dario Alvarez limping off the field after allowing a Dee Gordon homerun.
The Mets just need to put this ugly 9-3 loss behind them. I know I’ll forget about it by tomorrow morning.
The New York Times has an excellent piece today on Yoenis Cespedes. There were some things we learned or were reaffirmed:
- Cespedes desperately wants to win;
- Cespedes was the only OF available for the Mets on the eve of the trade deadline; and
- It’s going to be very expensive to re-sign him.
In reading the article, there are some things I personally interpreted.
The Tigers Were Desperate
The Tigers used Jim Leyland to take advantage of his relationship with Terry Collins to tell him Cespedes was available. I’m not an expert, but I presume trade negotiations are not normally done between a manager and a former manager.
This was a way to put pressure on the Mets to go get Cespedes, a player with whom the Mets had reservations. Everyone on the planet knew the Mets offense was terrible. Collins must’ve been going crazy filling out a lineup card that included John Mayberry, Jr. in the cleanup spot. I’m sure when Collins found out the Mets could get Cespedes, I’m sure he ran through the Mets offices telling anyone who would listen to get the deal done.
Again, the Mets were split. Maybe this Leyland-Collins conversation is what finally pushed the Mets to go out and get Cespedes.
The Mets Have Soured on Juan Lagares
One of the key aspects of the decision to get Cespedes was whether or not he could play CF. This was after the Mets failed attempts to get Carlos Gomez. Remember in that deal, the Mets were pushing to trade the Brewers Juan Lagares and his contract. It’s apparent the Mets didn’t just want a bat; they wanted a CF.
I’m shocked as the Mets were high on him as long as a year ago when they gave him the extension. Now it seems, they want to move on. That’s a huge fall out of favor for a gold glove CF.
The Mets Only Saw Cespedes as a Rental
As noted in the article, the Mets knew about the five day clause in Cespedes’ contract. They knew it would be difficult to bring him back to the fold in 2016 and beyond. The article further notes that Alderson doesn’t typically give out contracts to players of Cespedes’ age because Alderson likes his teams to have payroll flexibility. Cespedes will more likely recieve than David Wright‘s $138 million. That really restricts the Mets payroll flexibility when they will have to eventually pay these young pitchers.
This May Be a Test Case for Future deGrom Negotiations
As luck would have it, Cespedes shares the same agent as Jacob deGrom. Their agent, Roc Nation, and chief negotiator, Brodie Van Wagenen, are known to be tough and to be able to get the maximum value for their clients. The Mets dipped their toes on what it will be like when Robinson Cano was a free agent. The Mets came off as looking like they weren’t serious.
Whether the Mets eventually re-sign Cespedes or not, they need to put their best foot forward here. It’s possible the Mets will be outbid while still making a real, viable attempt to keep him. Remember there’s always a crazy team out there. Just look at contacts given to Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard.
The point here is to look like a serious team that can and will spend money.
Sandy Alderson Wants to Win Now
There was every reason not to make this trade. Cespedes was not the type of player the Mets sought out under Alderson’s regime: he swings wildly and doesn’t walk enough. The fact that Michael Fulmer could turn out to be the Mets best pitching prospect, current Mets pitchers included. There was dissension within the Mets front office whether to proceed.
Alderson saw an opportunity, and he went for it. Sure he took advice from his advisors, but he made the final call. It was gutsy and risky. Whether or not you agree with the trade, you have to respect how Alderson made the call.
There are some other nuances that are there, but these are the main ones in my opinion. In any event, while I disagreed with the trade, I’m loving the Cespedes ride. I’m not so excited about how the offseason will shake out. I’m putting that out of my mind right now.
I’m just enjoying the ride for now. Lets Go Mets!