Jacob deGrom
Everyone is expecting great starting pitching in the NLDS. As seen earlier today, Jacob deGrom is as good against the Dodgers as Clayton Kershaw has been against the Mets. Potentially, this means the starting pitching will cancel each other out creating a battle of the bullpens.
Working backwards (using ESPN’s depth chart) the Mets and Dodgers each have terrific closers:
Jeurys Familia 2-2, 43 saves, 1.85 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 (.207/.261/.309)
Kenley Jansen 2-1, 36 saves, 2.41 ERA, 0.783 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 (.176/.215/.298)
However, after that, the Mets have the better set-up men (note these numbers are the numbers with the team only):
Addison Reed 1-1, 1 save, 1.17 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 (.200/.267/.273)
Tyler Clippard 4-1, 2 saves, 3.06 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 (.200/.287/.336)
Jim Johnson 0-3, 1 save, 10.13 ERA, 2.036 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 (.381/.422/.524)
Carlos Frias 5-5, 4.06 ERA, 1.468 WHIP, 5.0 K/9 (.297/.356/.405)
This is a major advantage. If the Mets can stop the game from getting from the starter to Jansen, they can put runs on the board. However, according to Baseball Reference, the Dodgers have reshuffled their bullpen:
Juan Nicasio 1-3, 1 save, 3.86 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 (.263/.358/.384)
Yimi Garcia 3-5, 1 save, 3.34 ERA, 0.953 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 (.209/.249/.346)
Pedro Baez 4-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 (.247/.288/.405)
These are much better, but hittable right handed pitchers. The Dodgers only have one left handed reliever right now, J.P. Howell, which means Terry Collins will get to pick and choose his spots with Michael Conforto, Kelly Johnson, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. The Mets have a major matchup advantages in the late innings.
The bullpen disparity and Mets roster construction is the biggest reason I believe the Mets can and will win this series.
Update: Johnson is not on the roster.
Reliever Jim Johnson won't be on roster. Has been sent home "out of respect." "Didn't see him as next man up" so not sent to complex in AZ
— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) October 7, 2015
Earlier today, I covered how the Mets have fared against Clayton Kershaw. In Game One, Kershaw is going up against Jacob deGrom, and we’re expecting a pitcher’s duel.
From the earliest post, we learned that while Kershaw has dominated the Mets, like he does every other team, the Mets have fared better against him than the average team. Here’s how the Dodgers have fared against deGrom:
Starting Lineup
Carl Crawford 0-3 with 2 BBs and 1 K
Howie Kendrick 0-3 with 1 K
Adrian Gonzalez 3-8 with 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, 1 BB, and 3 Ks
Yasiel Puig 1-6 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, and 3 Ks
Andre Ethier 2-6 with 1 triple and 1 K
Corey Seager 0-0
Justin Turner 0-5 with 1 K
Yasmani Grandal 0-3 with 1 K
Combined 6-38 (.158 BA) with 2 BBs (.200 OBP) with one triple, three HRs (.447 slugging), 6 RBIs, and 12 Ks
Bench
A.J. Ellis 0-2 with 2 BBs
Jimmy Rollins 1-8 with 1 BB and 2 Ks
Chase Utley 3-10 with 2 BBs and 1 K
Enrique Hernandez 0-0
Joc Pederson 0-3
Ronald Torreyes 0-0
Combined 4-23 (.174 BA) with 5 BBs (.321 OBP), no extra base hits (.174 slugging), and 3 Ks
Team Totals 10-61 (.164 BA) with 7 BBs (.250 OBP), 1 triple, 3 HRs (.344 slugging), 6 RBIs, and 15 Ks
So overall, the Dodgers have not hit deGrom well with the exception of Gonzalez, Ethier, and Utley. It also seems that when the Dodgers get to deGrom, they hit him hard. As long as deGrom can keep the ball in the ballpark, the Dodgers are going to really struggle to score runs.
deGrom was amazing this season. He was the Mets ace. He’s shown he’s unhurt able when he’s amped up. He’s limited hitters to .215/.255/.318. He’s primed and ready to hold up his end of the bargain in an anticipated Game One pitcher’s duel.
Against Kershaw, you normally do not have much hope. The Mets will because their pitcher is just as deGrominant.
Earlier posts addressed the Mets postseason pitching experience as well as the Dodgers postseason offense. While it is interesting to see how theses players fared in October’s past, I’m more interested in seeing how the Mets pitchers have performed against the Dodgers (* – not on team, ** – not on projected roster):
July 3, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Noah Syndergaard ND, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Hansel Robles W, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jeurys Familia S, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K
July 4, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Matt Harvey L, 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4
Alex Torres* 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres** 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
June 5, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Steven Matz W, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Logan Verrett** S, 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
July 23, 2015 Citi Field
Bartolo Colon L, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Sean Gilmartin, 0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres** 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
July 24, 2015 Citi Field
Jon Niese L, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Carlos Torres** 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Hansel Robles 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Alex Torres* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
July 25, 2015 Citi Field
Matt Harvey W, 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Jenrry Mejia* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jeurys Familia 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
July 26, 2015 Citi Field
Jacob deGrom ND, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Jeurys Familia, BS, 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Jenrry Mejia, W, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Cumulative
Here are the cumulative stats for the pitchers who are projected to make the playoff roster:
Noah Syndergaard, 0-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Matt Harvey 1-1, 12.0 IP, 13 H, 5 ER, 6 BB, 8 K
Steven Matz 1-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Bartolo Colon 0-1, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Jon Niese 0-1, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Jacob deGrom 0-0, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Hansel Robles 1-0, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Jeurys Familia S, BS, 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Overall, with the exception of Niese, who will not start in the NLDS, have pitched well against the Dodgers. The Mets pitchers faced most of the Dodgers batters they will face in the playoffs. These stats give me confidence the Mets can win this series.
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
In actuality, these tickets were a birthday gift from my wife and son. My wife said she might be getting me tickets, and I requested a Sunday game so I might be able to bring my son into the field for the Mr. Met Dash.
I’m happy she picked the last game of the season. Tomorrow, I get to go to Citi Field and salute the improbable 2015 NL East Champions. Even after an ugly loss, the mood should still be jubilant. This team should be saluted for an incredible season. I’m happy that I’ll be able to get this snapshot to remember this year by.
The problem is that unless the Mets win the World Series, their year will end on a down note. I remember 1999 for the Kenny Rogers‘ walk. I remember 2000 for Timo Perez not running, Roger Clemens‘ [alleged] roid rage, and a Mike Piazza ball that did not travel quite far enough. I remember 2006 for the Adam Wainwright curveball.
It’s a shame because those were terrific Mets seasons. What they did is no small feat, especially for a franchise that has gone to the playoffs eight times in 53 years. I want to remember 2015 for more than just how the season ends, even if the Mets win the World Series.
There was the 11 game winning streak. There was the return of Matt Harvey from Tommy John surgery. There was the deGrominance of Jacob deGrom including his amazing All Star Game appearance. There was the amazing rookies seasons of Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto. There was “A Cespedes for the Rest of Us.” There was the David Wright homerun on his return from spinal stenosis.
On a personal note, it’s the year I finally came to love Citi Field. I brought my son to a few games. He got to meet Mr. Met TWICE! He got to play baseball. He had Shake Shack. He learned the Mets lineup. He watched games with me. He saw the Mets celebrate a division title. I may have loved the 1999 and 2006 teams more, but this has been my favorite season.
The Mets had a lot to do with it by winning. However, to me, this year has been about my son and I bonding over baseball. It started with a Spring Training Game with him imitating Gary Cohen’s excited, “LUCAS DUDA!” call. He’s learning the game. He loves the Mets.
I want to go to the game to celebrate all of that. The icing on the cake would be if we can run the bases. I know he will love it much like he loved this season. This is the last game of the year we can go to and just enjoy the day. We’re going to. I hope you will too. It was a great season.
Lets Go Mets!
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
Quick question for everyone: what is the Mets goal for the rest of the season? Wrong. It’s not getting Homefield advantage. It’s getting the team ready for the playoffs.
In order for that to happen, here’s what needs to get done:
- Steven Matz needs to get five innings on Saturday or Sunday meaning a short start for either Jacob deGrom or Matt Harvey;
- You don’t risk David Wright‘s back playing on a sloppy or wet field;
- Yoenis Cespedes needs to be in Germany or anywhere that can aggressively treat a bruise;
- Jon Niese needs to pitch in two games this weekend;
- Play Dilson Herrera at multiple positions to see if he can make the playoff roster;
- No wasted at bats to Eric Campbell, Anthony Recker, Johnny Monell, or anyone that the Mets are not considering putting on the playoff roster;
- Same goes for the relievers even if there is a blowout. They need to stay fresh;
- Get Travis d’Arnaud back on track;
- Allow Michael Conforto to hit against some lefties because he’s eventually going to have to face one in October; and
- Get out of the weekend healthy.
If the Mets accomplish the above, they will be in a strong position entering the playoffs. Homefield advantage is secondary to this. If the Mets get it, great. If they don’t, it may inure to their benefit. Overall, I’m absolutely convinced the Mets do not need homefield advantage in the NLDS to win.
In 2013, Michael Wacha burst on the scene in the playoffs, and it was declared “Wachtober.” If the Mets go far in the postseason, here are some suggestions for the new Wachtober:
Matt Harvey – Mattober or Dark Knightober
Jacob deGrom -Jaketober
Noah Syndergaard – Thortober
Steven Matz – Matztober
Bartolo Colon – Bartober
Curtis Granderson – Curtober
Daniel Murphy – Murphtober
David Wright – Wrightober
Michael Conforto – Confortober
Yoenis Cespedes – Yotober
Of course, this is dependent on the Mets making a deep run and one, or more of these guys being a major contributor. I hope I get to use these.
If you have a suggestion (even to an existing one), please pass it along. If I like it, I will update the list and credit your Twitter handle.
Overall, Matt Harvey may be the best pitcher on the Mets. He may have the best stuff he may have that clutch gene. However, he had not been the Mets pitcher this year. That honor goes to Jacob deGrom.
deGrom leads the Mets in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, ERA+, WHIP, and hair. By every measure, he is the logical choice to be the Game One starter. He’s the guy the Mets want on the mound to start the playoffs. He’s the guy you want in Game a Five if I comes to it. However, it sounds like he’s getting it by default:
Terry also said Harvey will not be making six playoff starts so don't expect a Bumgarner redux.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) September 29, 2015
No one except the Game One NLDS starter could possibly pitch in six postseason games. The only other way it could happen is if the Mets started someone on three day’s rest, which is something the Mets are probably not going to do. The effect of this statement is to say Harvey’s our best pitcher, but with innings limits, we’re going with deGrom.
That’s not fair to deGrom, who has had a great year. He was an All Star. He leads the Mets in almost every statistical category. He’s earned the Game One start.
The Mets should just come out and say that.
If rumors are correct, the Mets will go with the four man rotation of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz. I put them purposefully in that order because that’s how the Nets intend to line them up in the playoffs.
These four pitchers have had zero postseason appearances. In fact, as a group, they have less than five years of experience. This just highlights the total lack of postseason experience for the entire Mets staff. Overall, there are only three pitchers on the Mets who have any playoff experience:
- Bartolo Colon (10 starts) 2-4, 3.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 1.389 WHIP
- Tyler Clippard (3 appearances) 0-0, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 0 SV, 0.667 WHIP
- Eric O’Flaherty (1 appearance) 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0 SV, 2.00 WHIP
Unless his back prevents him, Clippard will be on the postseason roster. I believe the Mets will find a spot for Colon even if he isn’t starting. There’s no shot that O’Flaherty makes the team.
I’m not concerned at all. This was the case with the 1991 Braves rotation,nand they went to the World Series. The same goes for the 2003 Marlins. The 2008 Giants had a young core of starting pitchers they relied upon to win their first World Series in San Francisco. K-Rod burst on the scene on the 2002 Angels World Series Championship team. There’s another, better example for Mets fans. 1986.
In 1986, the Mets had Dwight Gooden (3 major league seasons), Ron Darling (4 major league seasons), Bobby Ojeda (7 major league season), and Sid Fernandez (4 major league seasons) make starts. Combined they had more than triple the major league experience of this current group of pitchers. However, they were still young and had zero postseason experience. The lack of postseason experience didn’t hold them back. The reason was their talent.
That’s right. For all the talk about what wins in the playoffs, we always forget the talent gap. This Mets rotation is the most talented in the NL, most likely all of baseball. If I have to choose between experience and talent, I pick talent every time.
It looks like the Mets are as well. Then again what choice do they have?