Dilson Herrera
There’s a free agent out there who fits the Mets needs quite well. He’s a career .281/.365/.479 hitter. He hits lefty and he plays well defensively at first, second, and third. He only wants a one year deal making him a good stopgap until Dilson Herrera is ready.
In case you haven’t already guessed, the player is Chase Utley. When you think of potential free agents the Mets would consider, he checks all the boxes:
- Left handed bat
- Versatile
- Good defender
- High OBP
- Cheap
Unfortunately, you can’t add a player like him to this team, not after this:
Sure, he’s at least close enough to David Wright to have his cell phone number. cell phone number. So maybe there’s a chance things could be smoothed over with the team. However, it never will with the fans. It just would never sit right with them. I will admit a small part of me would be amused by the Mets defending Utley at the suspension appeal hearing because they took the cheap way out.
Ultimately, Utley would be a nice fit on the Mets in 2016 if he wasn’t Utley. Maybe the Mets can consult with Bobby V to get a disguise to make this happen. Other than that, it looks like it’ll be Herrera next year without a safety net.
Scratch Utley as a cheap option the Mets could chase.
There may be a new second baseman on the free agent market with reports that Jose Fernandez has defected from Cuba.
In the Cuba, he was a .319/.403/.423 hitter. Personally, I don’t know how well stats from the Cuban leagues translate, do for comparison purposes here are the MLB numbers versus the Cuban league numbers of two well known successful Cuban players:
- Yoenis Cespedes MLB .261/.319/.486 Cuba .319/.404/.585
- Yasiel Puig MLB .294/.371/.487 Cuba .302/.398/.504
So, we can see there is a a drop in numbers from the Cuban leagues to the majors, but that is to be expected. Therefore, the best estimate of how Fernandez will play in the majors.
According to Baseball America, Fernandez is the third best prospect from Cuba who hasn’t signed a MLB contract. He’s a contact hitter that doesn’t strike out. He doesn’t hit for much power. He doesn’t have a lot of speed, and he’s not a good defensive second baseman. Fernandez has not played baseball in over a year because he was suspended for trying to defect. This begs the question why would the Mets go that route?
From the description, he’s no better than Daniel Murphy. Murphy is a contact hitter that’s not great defensively at second. Yes, Fernandez is three years younger, but he also hasn’t done it in the majors. With that said if you’re inclined to go that route you’re better off re-signing Murphy or giving the position to Dilson Herrera, who is also just as much of a question mark.
When it comes down to it, Fernandez may be the Cuban version of Daniel Murphy. If that’s the case, I’d rather have the real Daniel Murphy.
Believe it or not, the Mets have actually made two moves this offseason. Both were minor league deals. The first was to utility man Ty Kelly. The second was to Stolmy Pimentel. How will they fare? Who knows?
That’s the thing. You never quite know what to expect when you bring a player in on a minor league deal. Sometimes it’s a veteran just looking for one last shot. It can be a young player just looking to get an opportunity in another organization. Ultimately, these are players that just want a job, and they’re going to give it everything they have because if they don’t, their career might be over.
Mets fans and the organization need not look any further than R.A. Dickey. When Dickey signed the deal he was coming off a then career year that him have a 4.62 ERA and 1.617 WHIP in 35 games (only one start). There was no reason to believe the signing would amount to anything more than minor league depth even if knuckleballers tend to figure things out later than more “conventional” starting pitchers. He came to it even later as an adjustment because he was born without a UCL.
Well, you know the rest. He went 39-28 as a Met with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.150 WHIP. In 2012, he was an All Star and won the Cy Young Award going 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.053 WHIP. Because of that year, and the fact the Mets still had him under contract for another year, the Mets made perhaps the best trade in franchise history acquiring Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard along with Wuilmer Becerra and John Buck.
Speaking of John Buck, he would be traded by the Mets the following year along with Marlon Byrd. Byrd was also signed to a minor league deal. When these two were traded together, the Mets acquired Vic Black and Dilson Herrera. Black was effective did the Mets out of the bullpen for a year and a half before he was injured. Herrera is the second baseman of the future.
Now, there are a million minor league deals that don’t amount to anything. However, those players are released in Spring Training or spend the year in the minors. You don’t spend much money to acquire them, so it’s not a big deal. This happens in the vast majority of signings.
Still, there are always needles like Dickey and Byrd in the free agent haystack. If you’re able to find them you can turn your franchise around. Now, it’s not likely that either Kelly or Pimentel will make that type of contribution. If they make any positive contribution, the signing is a homerun because nothing is really expected from them. The bar for success is very low, but the sky’s the limit.
It’s why I love minor league deals.
No matter how you slice and dice it, the Mets will have to replace Daniel Murphy. The Mets could stay in-house with Dilson Herrera. They could sign a free agent like Ben Zobrist. They could look to make a trade. In the year after the World Series, why not just go for it?
If you want to go for it, the player you want is Robinson Cano, who reportedly wants to leave Seattle and come back to New York. Of course, he does even if the news didn’t come from him. The Mariners are a mess. Their coaching staff ripped him on the way out the door. Safeco Field is a nightmare for hitters much in the same way Citi Field used to be. I suspect Cano meant he wanted to go to the Yankees, but who knows, maybe he’ll accept a trade to the Mets.
He can be teammates again with Curtis Granderson, who seems from afar to be a terrific teammate. He can be reunited with Kevin Long. Between that and a move out of Safeco, he may get back to or close to the statistics he used to have. He will be back in a city that he was comfortable playing. It begs the question, do you want Cano?
First off, that contract is a nightmare. He’s due $24 million each year for the next eight years. This contract carries forward into his age 40 season. He’s been accused of being a lazy player, even if the accusation was unfair. He’s been recently described as a cancer in the clubhouse. Last year, he hit .288/.334/.446. It was easily his worst season. It just so happened that this occurred when Cano may be at the end of his prime.
However, I think a return to New York to a contending team would rejuvenate his career. Cano is a career .307/.356/.494 hitter. He is an average second baseman (-0.4 average UZR per season). He still hit 21 home runs last year despite playing at Safeco. Overall, he’s been an effective hitter there, even if he was a much better hitter while with the Yankees. He’s the best second base option out there. He may still be the best second baseman in the game. He is the best second baseman available either free agency or trade. At one time the Mets were interested in signing him.
Ultimately, we know the real reason this is unrealistic. Money. Cano would not only eat up practically all of the Mets remaining budget (or put them over budget), he would also eliminate payroll flexibility. Remember, Sandy Alderson doesn’t give out second generation contracts like this. This is what makes Cano unrealistic before we even get an idea of the Mariners ask.
So while Cano would be a fit, there is no way the Mets would pursue trading for him.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
Tomorrow is the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft by adding them to your 40 man roster. If they are not added, another team may select that player and add them to their 40 man roster. To keep that player, the new team must keep the new player in the majors all year. If not, that player must be offered back.
That was the odyssey of Logan Verrett last year. He started out as a Rule 5 pick of the Baltimore Orioles, and his rights would subsequently be picked up by the Texas Rangers. He struggled in his limited time with Texas going 0-1 in four appearances with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.667 WHIP. With the Mets needing relief help at the time, the Mets took him back when he was offered.
It was the best thing that happened to both him and the Mets. Verrett made 10 relief appearances with the Mets. In those appearances, he had a 2.20 ERA and a 0.674 WHIP. Overall, as a reliever, he had a 3.55 ERA and a 1.060 WHIP. Batters were only able to hit .198/.205/.352. This makes him a good reliever, who is all the more valuable when everyone else is out of reach.
He has increased value because he’s an effective spot starter. When he was making spot starts giving the starters test before the postseason, he went 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.030 WHIP. Batters only hit .208/.291/.338 against him. He was extremely valuable as a Met last year. He came back at the right time.
So for every Brad Emaus, there’s a Verrett who is able to contribute. It sometimes shows the best way to help your roster is to properly value what you have in house. That doesn’t mean you thrust players like Dilson Herrera out there before they’re ready. It means you properly value and protect your assets.
Verrett has deserved consideration for the major league roster in 2016. He’s also showed the players that got you there last year also deserve to be kept around to make another run next year.
MLB Trade Rumors updated where the Mets are this offseason. Unsurprisingly, the prognosis isn’t good. Despite the overtures that increased attendance will mean increased payroll, it appears the Mets won’t make good on that promise.
In the post, it discussed how the Msts appear unwilling to make the type of contract it would take to sign the following players:
The Mets just came off of an NL Pennant. There’s more money. There are holes in this roster. Instead of filling the holes, the Mets are creating new ones. It’s making an already frustrating offseason even more so.
If the Mets choose not to spend any money on these players, who are they going to pursue? Jason Heyward? Not likely. Instead the Mets will turn to the likes of Dilson Herrera, Matt Reynolds, and whatever other cheap players they could acquire. This is what the Mets seem to believe is the appropriate course.
By not negotiating with Murphy inseason, the Mets have put themselves in the predicament of having to overpay for a player. They didn’t mind it last year with Michael Cuddyer. However, now it’s a problem with Murphy and Tejada. It’s a problem with two players that helped bring you to the postseason and the World Series. I’m still perplexed this team isn’t going to spend to try to bring this team right back to the World Series.
I guess that just means all Mets fans are Charlie Brown and the Mets are like Lucy. They give us hope and taking it away laughing. We’re just flat on our backs looking like idiots.
In 2013, the Red Sox signed Stephen Drew to a one year deal. In that year, Drew presumably built up his value in a year the Red Sox won the World Series. The Red Sox and Drew at least thought so. The Red Sox offered him a Qualifying Offer, and Drew rejected it. His career has never been the same.
Drew just kept on waiting for a deal commensurate with his perceived value. He waited and waited and waited. He waited into the 2014 season. At that point the Red Sox knew no one was signing him, so they were not going to get draft pick compensation. They had injuries and a need for an infielder. They brought Drew back on a prorated portion of the Qualifying Offer.
He wasn’t good, and he hadn’t been good since. In 2014, he hit .162/.237/.299 in 85 games. He was so poor the Red Sox had no problem trading him to a Yankee team still hoping to make the playoffs. In 2015, the Yankees brought him back to play second. He hit .201/.271/.381 in 131 games. If he’s been this bad, why should the Mets sign him?
For starters, he’s a left handed bat that can be plugged into the middle infield. For his career, Drew hits righties to the tune of .260/.329/.436. While he had a disappointing year last year, he did hit 17 home runs with 14 coming against righties. Only nine of the homers were at Yankee Stadium, so it’s not like he’s completely a creation of that bandbox.
He’s also been a decent fielder. The last three years he’s recorded UZRs of 5.3, 3.0, and -0.6. In a full season at second last year, his UZR was -0.2. Basically, if he played for the 2015 Mets, he clearly would’ve been their best defensive middle infielder.
No, I’m not expecting him to be an everyday player. He’s going to be 33 years old next year. His best baseball is behind him. At best, I think he’s a platoon player at either second or short. He allows Dilson Herrera extra time in the minors if needed. He’s an insurance policy against Ruben Tejada‘s injured leg. He’s also bound to come cheap.
Honestly, I can’t imagine it would take more than a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training to obtain Drew. If that’s the case, it’s a no lose proposition. If he’s terrible or the younger players are ready, cut him or send him to the minors as an insurance policy. If he’s good or the younger players aren’t ready, you have a player who can contribute next year.
With the available free agents and the Mets budgetary constraints, these are the type of signings that will be most likely for the middle infield.
With the Mets most likely losing Daniel Murphy in free agency, there is a hole at second base. The Mets seem comfortable with Dilson Herrera in his place. With that said, Herrera is 21 and may need some more time before being able to take over the position full time.
The problem is the second base free agent market is devoid of stopgap options. When that is the case, you can either stick with what you have, or you could look to trade for a stopgap option. Right now, the Cincinnati Reds are conducting a fire sale and have Brandon Phillips. Would Phillips be worth pursuing?
For his career, Phillips has hit .273/.320/.421. Last year, Phillips hit .294/.328/.395. Now, most of these stats come from his hitting at the Great American Ballpark, which is a hitter’s park. His career OPS+ is 96. Last year, it was at 97. Basically, Phillips is around a league average hitter who shows he’s not in decline offensively despite being 34 years old.
He has an average UZR of 5.8, which makes him an above average second baseman. Like his offense, Phillips has shown that he’s not declining defensively. In the last five years, his respective UZRs have been 11.1, 8.7, 8.6, 8.1, and 2.0. Last year was a drop defensively, but he’s also the best defensive option.
There are two hurdles to him becoming a Met. The first is you need to trade for him (I don’t try to guess what’ll take). The next is his contract. He still has two years and $27 million left on his deal. That’s a lot for a team with limited resources, but still less than what the free agent second baseman are commanding. If the Mets want to add a second baseman, Phillips might be the cheapest option.
Phillips might be the best second option the Mets have right now.
After we found out Daniel Murphy rejected the qualifying offer, there were many people saying good bye to Murphy. Others celebrated his departure. These were all premeditated even if Murphy’s return is unlikely:
For those wondering, was told contract extension talks with Murphy never became serious. Again, all signs point to him going elsewhere.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) November 14, 2015
Yes, it’s likely Murphy leaves, but it’s not definitive. Murphy could still sign with the Mets. This is one of many misconceptions out there:
Mets Are Better Without Murphy
I really don’t understand this one. I’m well aware of his faults. He’s not a good baserunner. He’s not good defensively at second. He doesn’t walk a lot, and he doesn’t have a lot of power.
Well he is a second baseman, and he is one of the top hitters at that position. He hit .281/.322/.449 last year. Amongst second basemen:
- Batting average ranked ninth in the majors and fourth in the NL.
- OBP ranked twelfth in the majors and fifth in the NL. He was
- Slugging ranked fourth in the majors and first in the NL.
He had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. He’s making more and better contact. He’s clutch. Very clutch! Losing Murphy would be a big blow to the 2016 Mets, and that’s before you take into account if Dilson Herrera is ready or if David Wright can play everyday over 162 games.
The Money Can Be Better Allocated
This one is just wrong. With Murphy presumably gone, the Mets at least have issues to address in the middle infield. Some believe the Mets need another CF. Others want to get some more relievers. There’s also a group that wants to get an insurance option for Wright at third.
That’s a lot to add, especially for a team that only has about $18 million in their budget to resolve all of these problems. If you re-sign Murphy, you have at least address second base and the Wright insurance plan. With Murphy pegged to receive around $12 million annually, there is sufficient funds to add another reliever and/or a backup CF.
The only other free agent who can check these boxes is Ben Zobrist, who is a mistake signing waiting to happen. He’s 35 and in the midst of a three year decline. Last year, he was actually WORSE than Murphy defensively. I can’t believe the Mets will walk down this path again after signing a 35 year old Michael Cuddyer last year.
The Mets Have Better Internal Options
This is just ponderous. If you go the Wilmer Flores route, you’ve eliminated the Mets best possible shortstop option. Also, if you’re beating up Murphy for low OBP and the like, here’s Flores’ stats from last year: .263/.295/.408. He’s right handed and not even in the same league as Murphy as a hitter.
The other option is Dilson Herrera, who I think has a promising future. However, he’s still only 21. In limited major league duty over the past two years, he’s hit .215/.308/.383. Are we really confident he’s going to be handle the job next year? He will eventually, but this is a team that was just in the World Series. You should go with players who you know you can trust, not ones you hope can.
He’s a Net Negative
This is actually an oldie, but it is a good place for summation. Overall, for all of Murphy’s faults, he’s been a good guy that has performed well in New York. He was bounced all over the place, and he never complained. That’s important to have on any team, especially when it comes from a veteran.
More importantly, we should look at how he responded to the comment. He went on a homerun tear in the playoffs like we’ve never seen. Most people wilt under the bright lights of New York. He rose to the occasion.
Can you win a World Series with Murphy being the best player on your team? Probably not. However, as he showed this postseason, you’re probably not getting to the World Series without at least one Murphy in your team. Whoever signs Murphy is going to get a very good baseball player. A player who is versatile, hits well, and does not complain.
Until such a time as Murphy signs with another team, I’m not writing an obituary on his Mets career. I’m not saying good-bye yet. Instead, I’m holding out hope the Mets can push the misconceptions aside and re-sign Murphy.