Yoenis Cespedes

Cespedes Is Cooking

What did you have for breakfast today? 

Me? I had my usual bottle of Diet Coke or Diet Pepsi. I would’ve grabbed something on the way into work, but I didn’t have time to stop. I really could’ve gone for some waffles, but there’s no waffle iron at the office:

I know what I’ll do. I’ll give someone the keys to my Lamborghini to pick up a waffle iron. 

Just think about that for a second. Think about loving waffles so much you toss your keys for a car worth about $400,000 to make a Target run. Check that. You are so particular about your waffles that you’re willing to give the keys to that car to someone to get a round waffle maker because you don’t particularly like square waffles. 

I have to admit that year two of Yoenis Cespedes has been terrific thus far. Once Cespedes has arrived he has been the constant topic of conversation. 

We’re not talking about Terry Collins’ decision in Game 5 of the World Series. We didn’t freak out when Jacob deGrom tweaked his groin. There are a number of other issues that may have arisen that we’re not aware, or if we’re aware, we’re not focused upon them. 

Instead the talk is Cespedes’ cars and his breakfast options. It’s keeping Spring Training light and fun thus far. Instead of discussing what went wrong last year or what issues this team may have this year, we’re focused upon Cespedes. That’s a good thing. He was here to be the focal point of the Mets. He’s doing that. 

If I have one issue with Cespedes right now, it’s this – how could you not have a round waffle clause in your $27 million contract?  

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My Son is Cooler Than Cespedes

It has been less than a week, but Yoenis Cespedes has been the talk of the town again. Last year, it was because of the homeruns. This week, the buzz started when Cespedes’ rolled into camp with a Polaris Slingshot:

Looking at it, it’s nothing more than a tricycle. If all it takes to be cool is to ride a tricycle and hit homeruns, my son’s got that:

  
   
On top of all of that, he just looks like one “cool guy” whatever he does:

  
 

So while, Cespedes is cool, while he’s got that swagger, he’s got nothing on my son. 

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The Mets Took Over New York Because They’re Awesome

No matter how you slice or dice it, the Mets have gone from an under .500 team to taking over New York in one year. How did they do it?  

For starters, the Mets went to the World Series. They went on a magical run and came up just short. Additionally, they have assembled a roster that is more than capable of returning to the World Series this year, but also in years to come. Just as important as all of this, the Mets have a team that is good to the fans. Even after a loss in the World Series, they came out to share the moment with the fans. The fans love this team, and the feelings seem mutual. 

One major reason why the fans love the team is the larger than life personalities on the team. 

Matt Harvey travels across the talk show circuit like he’s got a movie about to be released even though “The Dark Knight Rises” was released in 2012. No, it’s not a coincidence that the movie was released the year he was first called up to the majors. 
After the World Series, Noah Syndergaard took his own victory tour going to each New York stadium letting them know he owned the city. He actively accepts and plays off the Thor superhero moniker bestowed upon him. He knows what everyone thinks about when they think if him, and then he goes about playing along on Twitter:

By the way, before he came to the majors, he was thought of as the quiet one. 

Overall though, no one moves the needle more than Yoenis Cespedes. He’s got swagger. Say what you will about him, but he is just cool. There are people and players that have that aura. Whatever you want to call it, Cespedes had it. Speaking of which, did you see that car?!?!?

Harvey has a Maserati, and people don’t even notice it. For what it’s worth, Harvey could’ve driven a Honda Civic today. No one noticed. Do you realize how big of a person or personality you need to be to make people not notice Matt Harvey?  

That’s why the Mets own New York. They get it. They accept and return the fans’ love. They have a certain cool about them. They’re confident. They’re fun. They’re awesome on and off the field. 

That’s why the Mets own New York. 

(Photo from Mets Twitter account)

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USA Today Got It Wrong

There are legitimate reasons why you would say the Mets will not win the NL East. Fangraphs used its projection system to predict the Mets will finish behind the Nationals in the NL East. 

Agree or disagree, at least we know Fangraphs has a rationalization for its conclusions. On the other hand, USA Today proudly flaunts they have no such projection formula. They just use the “human element” necessary in such projections to proclaim not only that the Nationals will win the NL East, but also that the Mets will miss the playoffs altogether. 

Mets Aging Offense

One reason why USA Today sees the Mets falling behind the Nationals is an aging lineup with “six regulars on the wrong side of 30.”  For what it’s worth, here’s a look at the Mets 2016 Opening Day starters:

  1. Travis d’Arnaud (27)
  2. Lucas Duda (30)
  3. Neil Walker (30)
  4. David Wright (33)
  5. Asdrubal Cabrera (30)
  6. Michael Conforto (22)
  7. Yoenis Cespedes (30)
  8. Curtis Granderson (35)

If we adhere to the axiom that a player’s prime is between 27-32, another way of saying what USA Today said was six of the eight Mets regulars are in their prime. Another way of saying what USA Today said is six of the eight Mets regulars are 30 and younger. 

To put this in perspective, lets look at the Nationals 2016 projected lineup:

  1. Wilson Ramos (28)
  2. Ryan Zimmerman (31)
  3. Daniel Murphy (30)
  4. Anthony Rendon (25)
  5. Danny Espinosa (28)
  6. Jayson Werth (36)
  7. Ben Revere (27)
  8. Bryce Harper (23)

Three of the Nationals players are “on the wrong side of 30.”  The average age of the eight Nationals regulars is 28.5. The Mets is 29.6. According to USA Today, that extra year is an indication that the Mets are in decline and the Nationals are on the rise. 

Bartolo Colon: Fifth Starter

Personally, I am not the biggest Bartolo Colon fan. With that said, I can’t think of him making around 15 starts next year as a reason why the Mets will miss the playoffs. 

Last year, Colon had an ERA+ of 89, and an FIP of 3.84. This makes him a below average starter.  Keep in mind, he will only be in the rotation until July when Zack Wheeler has completed his rehab from Tommy John surgery. 

The Nationals counter-part?  Tanner Roark   Roark is thrust into the starting rotating from the bullpen as the Nationals lost their second best starting pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann, to free agency. Roark had an ERA+ of 92 and a 4.70 FIP.  In theory, Roark is keeping the spot warm for uber-prospect, Lucas Giolito. However, it should be noted Giolito has not yet pitched above AA. 

Considering which statistic you choose, you can argue Roark is either just as bad or worse than Colon. As such, Colon is not a reason to say the Mets will finish behind the Nationals. 

Thor’s Innings

One factor USA Today cited in saying the Mets should finish behind the Nationals is the scary prospect of Noah Syndergaard having to throw 50% more innings.

This is plain wrong. Last year, Syndergaard threw 150.0 innings in 24 major league starts. In the minors, he threw 29.2 innings in five starts. Does USA Today reay believe Syndergaard will throw 359.1 innings next year?  The last pitcher to throw over 300 innings was Steve Carlton, and that was 36 years ago. The last pitcher to throw over 350 innings was Wilbur Wood in 1973. 

No, Syndergaard threw 179.2 innings in 29 starts. If he averages roughly the same 6.1 innings per starts next year, and he makes 32 starts next year, he will only throw 19 more innings or 10% more innings. 

Instead of Syndergaard’s innings, USA Today should’ve focused on Nationals starter Joe Ross. Last year was Ross’ first year in the majors. He made 13 starts with three relief appearances throwing 76.2 innings. In the minors, Ross made 14 starts and threw 76.0 innings. Between the two stints, he made 27 starts while pitching 152.2 innings. Next year, he will see a much greater percentage work increase than Syndergaard will. 

Overall, if the increased workload is an issue for Syndergaard, it’ll be a bigger issue for Ross. 

Matz’s Durability

Another factor mentioned for the Mets apparent downfall is the fact that Steven Matz has never thrown more than 140 innings in a season. 

Well that is true. You know what else is true?  In his entire pro career, Matz has a 2.25 ERA, including a 2.27 ERA in six starts with the Mets last year. Keep in mind, this is the Mets fourth starter and a favorite in the Rookie of the Year race. 

Overall, USA Today is throwing cold water on the Mets rotation while ignoring the Nationals rotation issues. There are the aforementioned problems with Roark and Ross. Additionally, the Nationals saw Gio Gonzalez being to regress with a 1.423 WHIP last year. That’s an ugly number for a guy who has a reputation for struggling with command. Furthermore, he just hit that dreaded age 30 season. 

Also, while Max Scherzer had an outstanding year last year, it should be noted it wasn’t perfect. Scherzer went 10-7 with a 2.11 ERA in the first half of the year. In the second half, he went 4-5 with a 3.72 ERA. Also, at age 31, he’s “on the wrong side of 30.”  

Dusty Baker is a Magician

Last year, Matt Williams was worse than Jimmy Dugan was before he got into that fight with Dottie Henson as to whether or not Marla Hooch should bunt. Note, Jimmy Dugan was right.  It very rarely makes sense to have a position player lay down a sac bunt. 

Baker had earned the right to be a well regarded manager.  However, he’s not a miracle worker. 

He doesn’t make Anthony Rendon healthy for a full year as USA Today suggests. He also doesn’t make Steven Strasburg completely fulfill his potential making him a Cy Young winner.  He doesn’t make Zimmerman or Werth healthy and productive. Yes, he can get the most from this admittedly talented Nationals team, but no, his presence alone doesn’t help this team overcome all of its issues. The only thing I would hazard a guess at is he would probably prevent Jonathan Papelbon from choking anyone in the dugout. 

Picking Nits

Overall, USA Today has teams having a combine record of 2347-2430. Since baseball has no ties, any projection system should have teams as a whole with a .500 record. It’s an error. We all make them.  With that said, with the decidedly one-sided analysis of the NL East, I believe it shows the attention to detail provided. 

Conclusion 

I’m not the typical Mets fan. The Nationals do scare me. You can concoct many a scenario in which the Nationals win the division. I just don’t think the one-sided analysis USA Today did was one of them. 

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Thank You Carlos Torres

We are all guilty at times of becoming too focused on statistics when it comes to determining a player’s worth. Sometimes we overlook the value of being able to take the ball whatever the situation. Ultimately, that was Carlos Torres‘ greatest attribute. 

Over the past three years, Terry Collins stretched that rubber arm of his to a breaking point. Torres served as a spot starter, long man, and set-up guy in his three years with the Mets. In his time with the Mets, he averaged over 1.1 innings per appearance. Torres’ rubber arm allowed Collins to rest the other arms in the Mets bullpen. There is immense value in a pitcher that can constantly take the ball in a variety of spots. 

However, saying Torres’ value was taking the ball whenever needed is underselling him. Torres was an effective pitcher with the Mets. Torres had a 3.59 ERA, a 1.253 WHIP, and an 8.2 K/9 in his three years in Flushing. He was a good pitcher. Unfortunately, after all the time and hard work he put in with the Mets, Torres was hampered by a hamstring injury which prevented him from pitching in the postseason. 

However, that’s not to say he didn’t have an impact on the 2015 season. He started and finished the most amazing defensive play of the season:

We also discovered he might’ve been the fastest Met on the team. Finally, he gave up his number 52 for Yoenis Cespedes. I expected nothing less from someone who was a team first guy. 

With the Mets signing Antonio Bastardo, there wasn’t any room for him left on this Mets team. It’s a cruel twist of fate we see all too often in sports. A guy gives everything he has to help a losing team, and when things begin to turn around, he is sent packing. It’s unfortunate, but it’s the way things work. Sure, Torres deserved better, but that still doesn’t mean there was room for him on the 25 man roster. 

With that said, it shouldn’t come as no surprise that Torres didn’t return to the Mets. Not even on a minor league deal. Instead, Torres signed a minor league deal with the Braves. He should have no problem making their Opening Day roster as Torres can fill any role he teams needs. 

Teams always need a player like Torres, and I’m sure at varying points of the season, so will the Mets. He was a player who brought real value to the team. It certainly leaves a hole in the organization not having him and his rubber arm around anymore. He was a good Met, and he will be missed. 

Thank you Carlos Torres. 

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How Much Money Will the Mets Have to Re-Sign Their Pitching?

One of the many blurbs that have surfaced from Yoenis Cespedes press conference is the Mets believe they can keep this young rotation together:

Now, the $200 million is conjecture. To be fair, if you polled most Mets fans, or really anyone for that matter, they would agree with this assessment. Rather than take it at face value, I figured it would be better to actually try to figure out if it’s possible.

Of all of the Mets pitchers, Matt Harvey has reached the arbitration stage of his career, and he agreed to $4.325 million to play in 2016. He will be a free agent in 2019. That’s the key timeframe because that’s the point when these starting pitchers will start receiving large free agent deals. 

Right now, the Mets payroll stands around $140 million.  Before figuring out how much these pitchers will cost, we should figure out which of the players on the payroll whose contracts will expire by the time Harvey first reaches free agency along with their 2016 salaries:

  1. Yoenis Cespedes $27.5 million (free agent 2019)
  2. Curtis Granderson $16 million (free agent 2018)
  3. Neil Walker $10.55 million (free agent 2017)
  4. Asdrubal Cabrera $8.25 million (free agent 2018)
  5. Bartolo Colon $7.25 million (free agent 2017)
  6. Addison Reed $5.3 million (free agent 2018)
  7. Antonio Bastardo $5.375 million (free agent 2018)
  8. Jeurys Familia $4.1 million (free agent 2019)
  9. Jerry Blevins $4 million (free agent 2017)
  10. Lucas Duda $6.725 million (free agent 2018)
  11. Jenrry Mejia $2.47 million* (free agent 2019)
  12. Ruben Tejada $3 million (free agent 2018)

Before proceeding, it should be noted the Mets only owe Mejia a pro-rated portion of the $2.47 million due to his suspension. Mejia served 62 games of his 162 game suspension last year meaning the Mets will owe him roughly $945,000 next year.

Without factoring in arbitration increases and the like, the Mets payroll will decrease by $98,995,000. That means the Mets payroll obligations would be around $41 million. When you look at David Wright‘s salary, it will actually decrease by an additional $5 million to reduce obligations to $36 million. On the other side of that coin, Juan Lagares‘ $2.5 million 2016 salary jumps to $9.0 million in 2019. That’s a $6.5 million increase. As a result, the Mets 2019 payroll obligations will be $42.5 million. 

If payroll remains stagnant, that means the Mets will have $97.5 million to fill out their roster and pay their starting pitchers. 

Part two will analyze how much of this money will be attributed towards position players. 

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NYC Can’t Cure Baseball’s Problems

This is a whole new generation. When I was growing up, we had candy cigarettes (gone) and Big League Chew (still around). While playing baseball, we used to have the candy cigarettes so we could smoke like Keith Hernandez, or we would shove a ton of Big League Chew in our mouths to look like Lenny Dykstra. Dykstra was such a legendary chewer that he was said to have stained the AstroTurf at the old Vet. 

As kids, we used this stuff because we thought it was cool to look like ballplayers. Did we try to real stuff?  Well, not as kids. It’s s good thing too because it would’ve been like that scene in The Sandlot:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CAxuXNxsNMk

Personally, I never really had any interest. Part of the reason was my parents. Another part was I was a catcher. I’ve seen catchers who have used chewing tobacco, but to me that was a pain. I tried seeds, which is similar in principle, but it annoyed me. So I went without any of it for most of my baseball life. 

Then I got older, got big, and was moved out from behind the plate. Part of “rookie” hazing was getting them to throw in a dip and watch the hilarity ensue. It wasn’t pleasant. 

In any event, I found myself playing that dreaded DH position more and more, which means you spend a lot of time on the bench. Many of those guys throw one in, so you usually do as well. You practice that finger motion with your index finger so you can pack it better and tighter. One day, it all becomes second nature. 

When I was in college, it was great. There were a couple of nights, it helped me get through the all-nighters. Also, there were some bars in the area where if you didn’t throw one in, you were out of place. Honestly, I wasn’t so much addicted to it as I loved doing it.  

A good friend of mine and me used to love dipping while watching baseball games. We would not only watch the games, but we would also keep an eye out for who was dipping. You would see the finger going in the dugout. The circle shape in the player’s uniform pants. That ever so slight bump in the bottom lip. If you ever saw it in the top lip, you knew that guy was having real problems. Looking at the Mets now, I can tell you who does and who doesn’t dip. I can do that for any team if I watch them long enough. 

Eventually, I quit. It really is a nasty habit. More importantly, it’s dangerous. We saw Tony Gwynn die too young because of it. We saw Curt Schilling battle cancer. As much as I enjoyed it, it really wasn’t worth it. 

The strange part is I never would’ve started had it not been part of baseball’s culture. No sport is as associated with smokeless tobacco than baseball. I thought about all of this when I saw Tim Rohan’s New York Times article about New York City looking to ban smokeless tobacco from being used in places like Citi Field and Yankee Stadium. 

There’s a lively debate to be had here about whether this law is a good idea or not. It’s a debate that should occur. However, at the end of the day, I’m more concerned for that two year old of mine that loves baseball. I realize that NYC can put every law in place they want, but it won’t matter.  It doesn’t matter because the problem is baseball. 

The city bans smoking, but we hear about Yoenis Cespedes smoking between innings. We see players using smokeless tobacco all over the field. As we see with Cespedes, a player will find a work-around. You should hear how they work around smokeless tobacco bans and stigmas in other sports. Overall, players will always find a way to do it. 

If that’s the case, it’ll always be associated with baseball, and that’s not a good thing. Baseball needs to help find a reasonable solution to this because what they have so far isn’t working. They need to figure it out because one day that Big League Chew becomes Skoal or Red Man. That needs to stop before another generation of players starts using it. 

I don’t want to see another Tony Gwynn. 

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Cespedes Wasn’t the Plan

At the press conference today re-introducing Yoenis Cespedes, the issue of what Alejandro De Aza‘s role will be. Naturally, he’s expected to be on the bench ready, willing, and able to play all three outfield positions. Perhaps, that is jumping the gun a bit:

https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/694964819003359232

This really just confirms what every Mets fan thought when De Aza came aboard. De Aza signed with the Mets to share centerfield duties with Juan Lagares. The move was made because the Mets never thought they were going to be able to sign Cespedes. Yet, somehow, Cespedes returned to the Mets leaving behind Lagares and De Aza platooning on the bench. 

Now, we are not privy to what, if any, promises were made to De Aza.  We do know at the time De Aza was signed, the Mets were fairly steadfast they were not re-signing Cespedes. With that said, it’s fair to say, De Aza came to the Mets to be at worst their fourth outfielder. At a minimum, it appeared he was going to have a legitimate shot to get the bulk of the at bats in centerfield. Now, he’s the team’s fifth outfielder. I’m sure he’s not happy with being pushed down the depth chart without even playing one game, especially when he could’ve signed anywhere. 

Now, De Aza can’t be traded until June 15th unless he consents to a deal, which he very well might. While every player wants to win, every player also wants to play. Right now, De Aza’s at bats will be few and far between as he’s the left-handed option off the bench, and the corner outfielders hit left-handed as well. He could be buried on the bench for a while. It’s not exactly an exciting proposition for a 31 year old utility outfielder. 

So yes, we understand why De Aza would want to be traded, but why would the Mets want to trade him?  With the Brandon Nimmo injury and the Darrell Ceciliani trade, De Aza is it when it comes to organizational centerfield depth. Well, there are a few good reasons. 

First, De Aza may not be happy on the bench for long stretches, especially after he thought he could be a starter with the Mets. Having a disgruntled player is never good for your clubhouse.  While Terry Collins was quite adept at handling the clubhouse last year, it doesn’t mean you should introduce a potential problem from the start. No, I’m not suggesting De Aza is a bad guy. Rather, I’m saying any player not getting sufficient playing time is an issue that will eventually come to a head. 

Another reason you trade De Aza now is this might be the time when he has his most value. As teams look to fill out their rosters as Spring Training and/or the regular season approaches, De Aza may become a more attractive option. The Mets aren’t likely to get much in return, but whatever they do get is most likely to be better than what they get around the trade deadline. 

Whether or not the Mets trade De Aza, we should be able to agree on one thing. De Aza is here because the Mets never expected Cespedes to be here. Now the Mets need to find playing time for FIVE major league caliber outfielders. This really is a nice problem to have after the problems we saw with the Mets last year. 

Sometimes, it’s great when the plan doesn’t come together. 

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Wilpon’s Finances Isn’t the Story Anymore

When is a story not a story?  I found myself asking that question when I read Deadspin‘s account on the current state of the Wilpon’s real estate business. 

For the relatively uninformed Fred Wilpon made his money in the New York City real estate market. He is seen as a shrewd investor and a respected member of the industry. Say what you will about Fred Wilpon and his running of the Mets, but up until this article, his real estate acumen has not come into question. 

Normally, I think Deadspin’s article would have been very important and enlightening. As we’ve seen from Howard Megdal’s reporting, the Mets other business interests have affected their ability/willingness to put the most competitive Mets team on the field as possible. However, with the Yoenis Cespedes signing, and the payroll hovering around $140 million, I’m not sure the Mets payroll is a story anymore, at least not with respect to the 2016 season. 

While we can quibble with any particular move, it’s hard to attack the Mets for this roster as a whole. They have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball. Of the eight everyday position players, five are former All Stars while the other three could reasonably be All Stars within the next year or so. The bullpen has many pitchers who can handle both righties and lefties well, and it is headlined by a dominant closer. 

So yes, the Deadspin report is very newsworthy. However, at least with respect to the 2016 season it’s not really a baseball story. It’s not a reason for any snarky comments. The Mets have spent the money, and they have a complete roster to make another run towards winning the World Series. 

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Buying the Right Player Jersey

In my life, I’ve actually purchased very few Mets players jerseys. The first was Mike Piazza. After that it was David Wright and then Matt Harvey. I’ve received others as gifts (some requested), but those are at that I’ve purchased. 

The one player jersey I always wanted was Daniel Murphy. I never purchased it. It seems that each and every year Murphy was a Met, he was rumored to be out the door. For various reasons a trade never materialized. I didn’t want to buy the jersey only for him to be traded the next day. Well, a funny thing happened. Murphy lasted seven years. He had a signature postseason game. He had the greatest postseason run for any Mets hitter ever. None of that should surprise us because Murphy was always incredibly clutch. 

The time to purchase his jersey has passed because he’s gone. Sure, I could purchase one hoping I’ll see him again one day to get that autograph. I could wear it for the day he comes back to Citi Field. The thing is it wouldn’t make sense. Thinking about it, the Wright jersey, albeit outdated, is still good 11 years later. I could purchase another like a Yoenis Cespedes‘ jersey. However, he presents the same problems:

So right now, I have two Mets jerseys that’ll serve well for the 2016 season. The aforementioned Harvey jersey and the Lucas Duda jersey my son got me. If I’m going to purchase another, I’ll make sure it’s a player who will likely be around for more than one year. 

Hopefully, that player will be with the Mets for at least seven years. 

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