Travis d’Arnaud
Believe it or not, the Mets have actually made two moves this offseason. Both were minor league deals. The first was to utility man Ty Kelly. The second was to Stolmy Pimentel. How will they fare? Who knows?
That’s the thing. You never quite know what to expect when you bring a player in on a minor league deal. Sometimes it’s a veteran just looking for one last shot. It can be a young player just looking to get an opportunity in another organization. Ultimately, these are players that just want a job, and they’re going to give it everything they have because if they don’t, their career might be over.
Mets fans and the organization need not look any further than R.A. Dickey. When Dickey signed the deal he was coming off a then career year that him have a 4.62 ERA and 1.617 WHIP in 35 games (only one start). There was no reason to believe the signing would amount to anything more than minor league depth even if knuckleballers tend to figure things out later than more “conventional” starting pitchers. He came to it even later as an adjustment because he was born without a UCL.
Well, you know the rest. He went 39-28 as a Met with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.150 WHIP. In 2012, he was an All Star and won the Cy Young Award going 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.053 WHIP. Because of that year, and the fact the Mets still had him under contract for another year, the Mets made perhaps the best trade in franchise history acquiring Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard along with Wuilmer Becerra and John Buck.
Speaking of John Buck, he would be traded by the Mets the following year along with Marlon Byrd. Byrd was also signed to a minor league deal. When these two were traded together, the Mets acquired Vic Black and Dilson Herrera. Black was effective did the Mets out of the bullpen for a year and a half before he was injured. Herrera is the second baseman of the future.
Now, there are a million minor league deals that don’t amount to anything. However, those players are released in Spring Training or spend the year in the minors. You don’t spend much money to acquire them, so it’s not a big deal. This happens in the vast majority of signings.
Still, there are always needles like Dickey and Byrd in the free agent haystack. If you’re able to find them you can turn your franchise around. Now, it’s not likely that either Kelly or Pimentel will make that type of contribution. If they make any positive contribution, the signing is a homerun because nothing is really expected from them. The bar for success is very low, but the sky’s the limit.
It’s why I love minor league deals.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
Unsurprisingly, the Mets have interest in both Darren O’Day and Joakim Soria. If you’re looking for an elite setup guy, you’re going to be interested in both players.
Soria is now three years removed from Tommy John surgery. In the four seasons prior to the one he was injured, Soria was an elite closer recording 132 saves with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.988 WHIP. He got injured, and he became a different player. Still a good closer/reliever, but not an elite closer.
After coming back from surgery, he went to Texas where he recorded 17 saves with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP in two years. He then signed with the Tigers, who seem desperate for relief help every year (sound familiar?). In two years, he recorded 24 saves with a 3.29 ERA and s 1.115 WHIP. When he was traded to the Pirates, he was terrific in the bullpen because he’s a good pitcher and everyone is terrific in the Pirates bullpen. In 29 games he had a 2.03 ERA with a 1.163 WHIP.
With the Mets seeking an eighth inning reliever, Soria would be an upgrade over Addison Reed, who has a career 4.01 ERA and a 1.261 career WHIP. Soria is a huge upgrade. Soria is expected to receive a 2 year $14 million contract or $7 million per season. Reed is slated to receive $5.7 million in arbitration. Soria would be worth the $1.3 million increase.
O’Day appears like he will command a 3 year $21 million contract or $7 million per year. While I think the $7 million per year on both O’Day and Soria are fair estimates, the increased interest may bump those numbers up to around $8 million per season.
Right now, the Mets projected payroll is around $92 million with about $18 million left in the budget. Would it be wise to blow almost all of it on relievers? I think so. The current free agent market lacks the elite second base, shortstop, or center fielders who would improve the Mets offense. The Mets don’t seem inclined to bring back Daniel Murphy.
The best solution might be to create an absolute shut down pitching staff. Going from the Mets elite starters to O’Day-Soria-Jeurys Familia will hold up any lead the Mets can muster. Also, keep in mind, the Mets will have full years from David Wright, Michael Conforto, and Travis d’Arnaud, which should offset the losses of Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes.
The Mets best approach to this offseason might be to create a shutdown bullpen to match their starting pitching. Bring on both O’Day and Soria.
Growing up, watching those 80’s teams I remember going to a game or two when Gary Carter would get out from behind the plate and play on the field. It was a way to give him a day off while keeping his bat in the lineup.
I was thinking of that when I saw a report the Mets were not considering moving either Travis d’Arnaud or Kevin Plawecki out from behind the plate. Personally, I agree that they both help the Mets as catchers. d’Arnaud has hit well, especially for a catcher, while Plawecki has offensive potential. They are also excellent pitch framers. However, I still think it’s important d’Arnaud gets some work to let him play some games at third.
The Plawecki Reason
The first reason is Plawecki is still developing. You don’t want him languishing away on the bench as a backup for 162 game season.
Looking over the 2015 season, the catchers who caught most caught between 112 – 139 games this year. The average amount of games caught between them is about 125 games a season. This leaves Plawecki with only 37 games. If you could find another spot for d’Arnaud once a week, you could have Plawecki catch about two times per week. There’s 26 weeks in the MLB season. If Plawecki can play two games per well, that’ll get him an additional 15 games
It’s still not enough for a developing player, but it’s a lot better.
Injury Factor
d’Arnaud has been named the Mets 2014 and 2015 Opening Day catcher. He didn’t make it through either season without a trip to the DL.
In 2015, they were fluke injuries that landed him on the DL. One injury was a broken pinkie on a hit by pitch. The other was a strained elbow on a play at the plate. I don’t believe d’Arnaud is injury prone. However, it’s getting harder and harder to say that.
Truth is last year he had two separate DL stints costing him around 50 games. With a dismal Mets offense, they had to turn to Plawecki, especially with Anthony Recker and Johnny Monell doing nothing offensively. It’s that reason the Mets will use Plawecki as the backup next year. You don’t want to stunt Plawecki’s development, but d’Arnaud has a bat you don’t want to take out if the lineup.
The best solution is to allow d’Arnaud to play some games at another position to get him some at bats while letting him rest a bit by bit being behind the plate.
The David Wright Factor
Ultimately, I think the reason you let d’Arnaud play some third is because of David Wright. He can’t play more than four games in a row. Assuming he has to take off a game at least once a week, that’s 26 games. He still may need more than that as he re-adjusts to playing over 162 games.
When he returned, he had similar numbers to his whole career. Last year, he hit .289/.379/.434 (yes that includes the right games he played in April). For his career, he has hit .298/.377/.493. Sure, there’s less power, but he’s still a good hitter. It’s a bat they’ll miss when he’s not in the lineup. Right now, it seems the Mets have interest in bringing back Kelly Johnson as a utility player. Presumably, he will play the majority of games Wright doesn’t play.
Johnson is a career .251/.331/.424 hitter. Last year, he hit .250/.304/.414. d’Arnaud hit .268/.340/.485 last year. He’s a better hitter than Johnson. If you’re concerned about defense, Johnson isn’t exactly a Gold Glover. He’s average. There’s no reason d’Arnaud can’t be average out there with some work.
Overall
I think it would help d’Arnaud to stay healthy to get out from behind the plate. It would help Plawecki’s development to get some extra reps out there. It would help the Mets offense to have d’Arnaud’s bat out there when Wright can’t play. This move will help the Mets in 2016 and beyond.
Today was supposed to be the day I was able to put baseball aside for a little bit. Game 7 was supposed to be last night. However, I was reminded of the Mets blowing the World Series because:
Today is the day. Wake up and get your free A.M. Crunchwrap between 7-11 a.m. Rules: https://t.co/yyutdNEGEA pic.twitter.com/iNv9pDuaxY
— Taco Bell (@tacobell) November 5, 2015
The reason for the free AM crunch wraps? It’s because the Royals were able to steal a base during the World Series. The steal that got us free breakfast was Lorenzo Cain stealing second in the sixth inning of Game 1 of the World Series. He would score to bring the game to 3-2.
Overall, the Royals were 6/6 stealing bases off of Travis d’Arnaud in the World Series. This includes a whopping 4/4 in the deciding Game 5. It caused me to sarcastically text my Dad and brother during the game that when we say we wanted d’Arnaud to be like Mike Piazza this isn’t what we meant. Look, I know there are many elements to what causes stolen bases, but a catcher loses the benefit of the doubt when he can’t reach second base.
In any event, it’s hard to say the Mets lost the World Series because of d’Arnaud. There were so many different elements that it’s hard to point a finger at d’Arnaud. I also don’t think it’s a reason to move him out from behind the plate because he does everything else well.
He’s a terrific pitch framer, who makes sure his pitchers get that borderline strike call. As the stats suggest, his work behind the plate gets his pitcher not just the corner but a little off of it. Also, he’s a good hitter. His triple slash line this year was .268/.340/.485. To put that in perspective, another great Mets catcher, the late great Hall of Famer, Gary Carter, hit .262/.335/.439 for his career.
Is d’Arnaud as good as Piazza or Carter? No, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good catcher for the Mets. All he needs is a little health and to work on his throwing mechanics a bit. (Note: I’m not comparing him to Mackey Sasser. Not going to happen).
In any event, I had my AM crunch wrap courtesy of a stolen base in the World Series. A World Series the Mets should’ve won. Hopefully, I’ll have one next year because of a Juan Lagares‘ stolen base.
In late August, I began to panic. I thought Terry Collins was cost the Mets either a playoff spot or a series with his in game management. Sometimes it sucks to be right.
He had a terrible World Series. Just terrible. As a wise and independent Keith Law verified, Collins managing really cost the Mets in Games 3 & 4. The full details are here. The quick synopsis is from Game 2 on Collins grossly mismanaged his bullpen. He had the wrong guy in the wrong spots, and then he asked Jeurys Familia to bail the Mets out of an impossible situation.
Now, it should be noted the players on the field win and lose games. Collins didn’t force Daniel Murphy to miss the grounder in Game 4. He didn’t force Lucas Duda to choke on a throw home for the last out when Eric Hosmer was dead to rights. With that said, Collins didn’t put his team in the best position to succeed. His mistakes cost the Mets the series.
I’m not going to regurgitate everything from Games 1 – 4. I’m not going to go into the Game 1 & 2 pitching strategy again. I just want to focus on Game 5 here. This game highlighted every weakness he has as a manager.
The first big decision was in the sixth inning. In actuality, it wasn’t a big decision. It was a no brainer that Collins blew. Yoenis Cespedes fouled a ball off his kneecap and went straight down. He was down for a while. He was limping even when he finally got back up. For some reason, Collins let him hit.
Yes, it was a two strike count. You could anticipate that a cold hitter off the bench, presumably Juan Lagares, would’ve struck out or made an out there against Edison Volquez. Instead Cespedes hit. He was given a pitch to hit, and he popped it up. The Mets are lucky he did because the way he was limping, it would’ve been an automatic double play if the ball was hit in the ground.
We all know the next mistake. He left Matt Harvey in too long. Personally, I would’ve pulled Harvey after right, but admittedly, my heart wanted Harvey out for the ninth. Apparently, Collins had the same issue. He pulled Harvey until Harvey talked his way back into the game. Like the rest of the planet, I thought Harvey had to be removed after he walked Lorenzo Cain.
A double by Eric Hosmer later, and the game was 2-1. Collins then lifted Harvey with one out with the tying run on second with no outs. He again put Familia in a bad spot. Again, the defense blew it. Royals tied the game.
The lady fateful decision is one that had t gotten much discussion. I had no problem with Addison Reed in the 12th, even if he’s the only one that had pitched in every game in this series. My problem was how long he stuck with Reed. Reed has been terrific with bases empty, not so much with runners on base.
Once Jarrod Dyson pinch ran for Salvador Perez, after his leadoff single, you knew Reed was in trouble. There’s holding on a runner and there’s being distracted. Reed was distracted and lost the zone. Predictably with Travis d’Arnaud‘s arm, Dyson stole the base. No one was up at this time.
No one would be ready until two runs were home and the bases were loaded. He brought in Bartolo Colon. Now, while this was happening he never thought to warm up Hansel Robles even though: (1) he would get warm quicker; and (2) he’s been terrific. Colon allowed a bases clearing double to Lorenzo Cain. What was a 3-2 or 4-2 game was now a 7-2 game.
Collins’ inaction in the 12th led to a situation where the Royals had an insurmountable lead. Game 5 and the series was over.
My heart does break for Collins. He’s shown himself to be a good man. He waited his whole life for this moment. He’s been good with the clubhouse. With all that said, he cost the Mets the World Series.
The Mets lost the World Series 4-1. The Mets easily could’ve won the series in the reverse. The difference? The Royals executed in late innings. Terry Collins was terrible. The Royals got a little luck. It wasn’t supposed to go this way. Not this series. Not tonight.
This was the moment Matt Harvey we all imagined when he first came up and pitched against the Diamondbacks. This is the moment we anticipated when Harvey started the All Star Game at Citi Field. We were left dreaming of it when he missed all of 2014 while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
My God was he awesome. Awesome may be overused, but I can’t think of a better word. I’m not sure a word exists to describe how incredible Harvey was. He went 8+, five hits, two earned, two walks, nine strikeouts.
For all the narrative thrown his way during the innings limit drama, he promised he would be here when the time called for it. Terry Collins tried to take him out of the game before the ninth. Harvey heard the news from Dan Warthen, and he went over to Collins and told him he’s not coming out of the game. He then threw in a lipper and charged out to the mound. You don’t get more old school than that.
Unfortunately, it was the wrong decision. Harvey allowed a leadoff single to Lorenzo Cain followed by a stolen base and a Eric Hosmer double. Familia got a groundout sending Hosmer to third. Then the Mets late inning defense showed its ugly face again. Salvador Perez hit a groundball to David Wright. Wright looked back at Hosmer, but it wasn’t enough. Hosmer took off with Wright’s throw, and he scored on a poor Lucas Duda throw. Blown save. Tie game.
It certainly highlighted the fact that Terry Collins left Harvey in a better too long. It highlighted the poor offense with four double plays off of the grieving Edison Volquez. The only offense the Mets could muster was a Curtis Granderson leadoff homerun and a Duda sacrifice fly. The latter being the only run scored when the Mets had the bases loaded and no out. The first out of that inning came on a Yoenis Cespedes popout after he fouled a ball off his knee. He would have to leave the game after the AB.
For the second straight game Familia got hit with the blown save that wasn’t his doing. He got the groundball. He did buckle down, got out of the ninth, and shut down the Royals in the tenth. Jon Niese kept it tied. Addison Reed didn’t.
Perez leadoff with a single that dropped right on the right field line. Jarrod Dyson pinch tab and stole second. Travis d’Arnaud had no shot. With the way he’s throwing right now, he couldn’t throw out Sid Bream. Dyson would score on a Christian Colon single. Naturally, it was Colon’s first at bat in the playoffs.
Of course Daniel Murphy made another error. Of course Hansel Robles went unused again.of course Collins would wait for it to be 4-2 before lifting Reed. Of course Bartolo Colon would allow a bases clearing double to Lorenzo Cain. The game was out out of reach at 7-2.
Wade Davis came in, and the Mets went quietly into that good night. Duda struck out. d’Arnaud struck out. Michael Conforto singled leaving Wilmer Flores to make the last out. He struck out. Fittingly, it was his final at bat that left us all in tears.
Tonight is Halloween, and we’re saying goodbye to the incredible month of Murphtober. If this game goes into the late evening hours, it will be the second time the World Series will go into November (it will anyway).
After Daniel Murphy dominated October, it’s time for a Met to take up the mantle for November. Here are some suggestions:
Curtis Granderson – Grandvember
David Wright – Davember
Daniel Murphy – Murphvember
Yoenis Cespedes – Yovember
Travis d’Arnaud – Travember
Wilmer Flores – Wilvember or Flovember
Juan Lagares & Juan Uribe – Juanvember
Matt Harvey – Harvember
As usual, I’m open to any suggestions you may have.
Lets Go Mets
The Mets threw their two best pitchers to start the World Series, and things didn’t go as planned. There were some suggestions that Jacob deGrom was tipping his pitches. For what it’s worth, Dan Warthen disagrees.
Now, there is a way that the Royals knew what was coming without deGrom tipping his pitches. It’s the art of sign stealing. There’s no definitive proof right now, but we know it’s something everybody tries to do. I think there might be something to it because some the Royals seemed paranoid about it in the ALCS. To be fair, the Blue Jays do have a history.
Right now, there’s nothing definitive to prove this is happening. The only thing we can really look at is the team’s home and away splits. At home, the Royals hit .279/.334/.426 averaging 4.6 runs per game. On the road, they hit .259/.310/.399 averaging 4.3 runs per game. There’s a definitive contrast there.
Now, there are many logical explanations other than sign stealing. Teams are built for their ballpark. Players are more comfortable at home. However, the Royals are noted as comparatively free swingers. Kauffman Stadium is a pitcher’s park. Despite that, the Royals have a better OBP and slugging percentage at home.
There’s smoke, but you can’t definitely prove there’s fire. I don’t have a problem with the Royals doing it. It just means the Mets have to be smarter. They have to change up their signs. Travis d’Arnaud has to hide the signs better.
Whatever it is the Royals are doing is having an effect. However, the Mets are coming back to Citi Field. Things should be different the next three games. The Royals won’t be stealing anything here.
Pursuant to Rule 3.01, no player may put any substance on the ball. That includes pine tar. That includes catchers.
Was it pine tar on Salvador Perez‘s shinguard? With it being a wet night with the rain, it probably was. It wouldn’t surprise me. Elston Howard used to cut the balls off his shin guard for Whitey Ford. It’s what catchers do for their pitchers. I’m sure he was using it not only to help his pitchers, but also to help his throwing against would be base stealers.
It is widely assumed that it’s something everyone does. However, as we saw last year with Michael Pineda, you can’t make it obvious. While it wasn’t a giant glob on the neck, it was on the outside of Perez’s equipment. Now that the cameras caught it, it’s obvious. I can understand Terry Collins saying it’s no big deal, but it is. We should also note, it is a big deal. The common denominator here is the pitching coach Dave Eiland. It seems his players have a history of this now.
The reason is because it’s an opportunity. Perez is important to the Royals. If he’s caught, at a minimum, he had to change his gear. Without the pine tar, the Royals pitching from the starters to the bullpen suffers. More likely, he’s ejected and could face a possible suspension.
The goal here is to win the World Series. As long as things are on the up and up with Jacob deGrom and/or Travis d’Arnaud, you have to try. The only reason not to try is because you’re doing the same thing. If you don’t try, it’s not doing everything to win. I saw enough of that.
It’s time to do everything you can do to win.