Ruben Tejada

Tejada May Be Limping Away

Through everything that has happened with Ruben Tejada this postseason, one thing gets lost in the shuffle. He’s not a good SS and he’s starting to get expensive. With these things in mind, he’s not a lock to return in 2016:

Tejada is expected to receive $2.5 million in arbitration. He cannot be a free agent until 2018. He may have poor range (-5.6 UZR), but he catches everything hit to him. He’s a career .255/.340/.323 hitter. Long story, short. He’s a major leaguer. Maybe not a great one, but a major leaguer nevertheless. 

It also means he’s as asset. Yes, this is the second time he’s broken his right leg. I know he’s not what everyone imagined he would be when the other shortstop left in free agency. However, he’s a competent player who is not making that much money. Last time the Mets made a penny wise, pound foolish decision like this was Justin Turner, and we know how that worked out. 

Tejada is about to turn 27, so you can argue he’s about to be entering the prime of his career. The Mets seem to be letting Daniel Murphy walk and installing Dilson Herrera at second. If Herrera isn’t ready, Wilmer Flores (the lesser of all evils at SS) would be the most likely candidate to play second. Except he can’t in that situation because the Mets non-tendered Tejada. Also, what happens if Flores repeats his early season SS struggles?

I’m sure the Mets will look to get someone to replace Tejada, but it’s slim pickings. Do you really want to see Jimmy Rollins or Alexei Ramirez there everyday?  It’s one thing to bring them in and give them a chance, it’s another to have to rely upon them. This more than anything is the reason why Tejada is so important. 

The Mets need to keep Tejada. 

Flores > Aybar

Well now that the Andrelton Simmons drama is over, you would think the idea of a Mets-Braves trade would go away. At least you would think it would go away after the Braves overreach in their asking price. It turns out the asking price was even worse than we all thought:

You would think that this would put an end to any idea that the Mets and Braves would enter into a trade for a everyday player. Nope because the Braves received Erick Aybar as part of the trade. Naturally, everyone sees the name and goes there’s a fit:

It’s at this point it should be noted Jim Bowden was a terrible GM in more ways than one. There’s a reason why he hasn’t had a front office job since 2009. If you didn’t have any reason to call his judgment into question, look no further than his idea that the Mets obtain Aybar. 

 Aybar is coming off a year where he hit .270/.301/.338. For his career, he is hitting .270/.316/.378. He will be 32 years old on Opening Day. He’s in the last year of his deal, and he’s owed $8.5 million. That’s a lot of money for a guy that’s not a good hitter. However, the Mets have a need for a defensive SS, so maybe you bite the bullet here. Aybar has won a Gold Glove. 

Except, it was just the one, and it was five years ago. Now, he’s got horrible range. His UZR this past season was -7.1. If you want to argue that UZR can change from year to year, and he was much better in 2014, I agree. However, he was also a -6.6 in 2013. Essentially, in two of the last three years, his range is close to fall down left – fall down right. 

Let’s put it another way, we all agree Wilmer Flores was good defensively last year. Well, at a -2.5 UZR, he had much better range than Aybar. As we saw after Ruben Tejada went down in the postseason, Flores was much better at SS. Gone were the wild throws and awkwardness in turning the double play. 

Now, what is more likely?  Is it more likely that Aybar suddenly rediscovers his range from five years ago at the age of 32, or is it more likely that the 24 year old Flores is improving at SS?  Would you want to pay Aybar $8.5 million against Flores’ $500-600 k salary to find out?  Is Aybar really worth $8 million more plus prospects?  Isn’t Flores the better bet, especially with his 16 homeruns last year?

Look, if you’re not comfortable with Flores, I get it. However, that does not mean you make a bad trade for a bad player who plays a bad SS. The fact of the matter is there are no good shortstop options. You can stick with Flores and/or wait to get a veteran insurance policy on the cheap. You could also trade for a SS. 

The trade route is fine as long as you’re not trading for Aybar because he’s no longer a good SS. I’d rather stick with Flores. 

Shortstop is a Conundrum

The recent Andrelton Simmons trade rumors suggests again the Mets know there is a hole at shortstop. 

Last year, Wilmer Flores showed he wasn’t an everyday shortstop. On top of that with Daniel Murphy likely departing, he may be needed at second if Dilson Herrera isn’t ready. On top of that, Ruben Tejada once again exhibited limited range for the position, and that is before taking into account his broken leg. You’d like to say Matt Reynolds is an option, but he regressed at the plate last year in a hitter’s league and park. Furthermore, he, like Flores, is someone who may not profile as a major league shortstop. 
The Mets have two well regarded shortstop prospects with Gavin Cecchini and Ahmed Rosario. Both played in AA for the first time last year. While Michael Conforto made the jump from AA to the majors, it would be unfair to presume these two could. Conforto did something rare. Accordingly, it’s safe to assume Cecchini and Rosario are at least two to three years away from playing with the big league club. 

The free agent market is thin at shortstop with the best option being a high priced player in decline for the past two years. Furthermore, the Mets unloaded their best trade pieces on rentals to go all-in last year. This begs the question, what do you do?

Well, there’s only one thing to do. You let the free agent market shake out. You look to take on one of the remaining shortstops on either a minor league deal or a cheap major league deal. I’m sure a player like Jimmy Rollins is looking for one last chance to win a World Series. Alexei Ramirez may want a one year deal to re-establish his value. 

No, I’m not excited about these players either. However, it’s the reality of the Mets situation.  Much like they wanted to catch lightning in a bottle with Flores last year, they’re looking to do it again next year with Flores or whoever else it may be. 

It’s difficult knowing the Mets real shortstops are two plus years away, but the team is ready to win now. 

Do You Move Wright Off Third?

Mark Simon had a thought provoking article about moving David Wright off of third base. 

His reasoning was sound. Wright’s defense has taken a noticeable step back. It played a part in costing the Mets two World Series games. While his throwing was never a string point, it’s gotten worse, and he throws more side armed now. Whether it’s his age or the stenosis, there may be a point in time when the Mets may have to move him off of third. 

I just don’t think first base is the best option. Spinal stenosis is exacerbated by the typical twisting and turning actions you see on a baseball field. The stretching and turning at first would only exacerbate Wright’s stenosis. It may limit him further. I don’t think first is an option. 

I’ve seen people suggest second. There’s no way I put him in the middle infield. Just remember what happened with Ruben Tejada. As a second baseman, Wright will have his back turned on many double play chances. I can’t put him in that position especially since he’s got limited mobility with his back. 

There’s no good option in the infield. It’s why you might look to moving him into the outfield. Wright still has some speed and athleticism to cover the ground. He has shown the ability to track fly balls well, even if it has been at third base. His arm might be a liability in left, but it may be at third as well. 

The Mets have a spot coming up in the outfield within the next few years. Curtis Granderson has two years left on his deal, and as good as he’s been, I can’t see the Mets re-signing him at 36 years old. From what we’ve seen so far from Michael Conforto, he should be able to handle RF. We don’t know what Brandon Nimmo or any other prospect will be. 

We do know Wright will be around for another five years. Maybe he can stay at third. Whatever the case may be, the Mets should explore the possibilities. 

Murphy Won’t Be Back

I’m sure I’m not breaking any new ground when I say the Mets are not going to re-sign Daniel Murphy. However, it wasn’t until I read the tea leaves that I lost hope

Look who the Mets have interest in signing as free agents:

They’re going after two left-handed and one switch hitting CF.  Sure, it’s an indictment on how the Mets feel about Juan Lagares because you can’t expect these players to all of a sudden sign on to become a platoon player. It’s also a sign the Mets are not re-signing Murphy. 

When and if the Mets lose Murphy, they’re losing a left-handed second baseman and presumably replacing him with one of two right-handed bats: Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores. This will make the Mets lineup right handed dominant with only three lefty hitters. This takes away the L-R-L switching in the lineup that Terry Collibs likes to do. 

To keep the L-R-L in place the simple solution would be to keep Murphy. He’s seeking comparable money to the free agent CF. He’s insurance against David Wright breaking down, Lucas Duda slumping, Herrera not being ready, and/or Ruben Tejada being physically ready and able to play shortstop

No, the Mets have announced they want to go with a left-handed CF. That’s how they’ll keep the L-R-L in the lineup. Things could change, but I doubt it. It’s a shame because Murphy was a good Met and the CF options aren’t that great. 

So I will begin to make my piece with Murphy going to another team. I wish him the best. 

Ian Desmond Is Not the Answer

Last year, Terry Collins did a masterful job juggling the shortstop position between Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada. Looking over the free agent list, the Mets might be wise to go with Flores at SS next year. 

The proverbial class of the SS market is Ian Desmond. He’s anticipated to receive a four year $60 million contract in free agency. He’s likely to receive and reject a qualifying offer meaning signing him comes with forfeiting your first round draft pick. The narrative is he’s coming off a down year. I’m not sure that’s true. 

Yes, Desmond was not good in the first half hitting .211/.255/.334. He picked it up in the second half hitting .278/.310/.444. Overall, he finished 2015 hitting .233/.290/.384. In 2014, he hit .255/.313/.430. I could argue last year was just symbolic of a declining player as he hit .280/.331/.453 in 2013. For his career, he’s a .264/.312/.424 hitter. He’s hit .255/.329/.440 at Citi Field. 

The thing is he’s going to have to hit to stay at SS. Last year, his UZR was -3.7 meaning he’s a below average SS. The prior year his UZR was 0.1 meaning he was average. Two years ago, his UZR was 4.4 meaning he was an above average SS. Again this is further evidence that Desmond is amidst a three year decline. 

I can accept the argument that he had a down year last year due to his impending free agency. However, how do you explain his 2014?  I’d rather take my chances with Flores, who is younger, has more potential, and surprisingly, is better defensively. The Mets have several areas to address, and they can’t wrap up all their money in a declining player. 

There are ways to upgrade this team. Ian Desmond is not one of them. 

Flores is a Better SS than Tejada

Going into the 2015 season, the Mets were determined to make it work with Wilmer Flores at SS. It was rough. Flores had trouble turning the double play. He made some routine throwing errors. He seemed to press from day one. 

Eventually, the Mets had to abandon the plan. Not only was Flores struggling in the field, he was also struggling at the plate. At the end of June, he was hitting .236/.267/.390. At that point, Flores wasn’t the only one struggling. The whole team was, especially with David Wright out indefinitely. Therefore, Daniel Murphy would move to third, Flores would move to second, and Ruben Tejada would once again become the Mets SS. 

From June 30th on, Tejada was the everyday SS. Flores would eventually be relegated to the bench first with the trade for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. That went doubly so when Wright came off the  DL. Soon Tejada was going out there everyday and Flores was on the bench. 

At that point, the Mets got healthy and got Yoenis Cespedes. They just needed defense from Tejada. The narrative was Tejada was a good defensive SS, and Flores wasn’t. Looking over the stats, I believe the narrative was wrong. The narrative should’ve been, Tejada is more steady than Flores. It’s a slight difference, but it’s an important one. The difference is because Flores has better range at short than Tejada. 

In fact, in terms of range, Tejada isn’t a SS. He never was. His UZR this year was a -5.6. This translates to him being a below average SS.  Throwing away last year, Tejada’s average UZR is 0.8, which means he’s, at best, an average SS. 

On the other hand, Flores did come into 2015 with some promise. His 2014 at SS was 4.0 rating him as an above average defensive SS. However, this year he had a UZR of -2.5 which rates as being a slightly below average SS.  It makes him better than Tejada, but still below average. However, the flaw with UZR is it doesnt judge throws or the ease in which a player turns a double play. 

It’s the attempt at turning the double play that might’ve cost Tejada a chance at being the SS in 2016. Going into the playoffs, Tejada really seized his chance to be the everyday SS. He was making the routine plays, and he was hitting. In September and October, he hit .297/.357/.496. For the year, he hit .261/.338/.350. This is compared to Flores’ .253/.287/.386. 

Tejada really became the better of two bad choices. He had the leg up in the competition until Chase Utley took Tejada’s legs right out from under him. Mets fans were initially nervous with Flores really being the only SS. He performed admirably. 

Flores did show off that range, but now he was making all the throws. He showed no signs of hesitation on the double plays. He only hit .195/.298/.294 in the postseason, but he was taking better at bats. He showed why the Mets wanted him to be the SS over Tejada. 

Accordingly, Flores is the better SS, and if the Mets make no additional moves, he should be the 2016 Opening Day SS. 

Stop the 2016 Predictions

Did you know the Mets are 10-1 to win the 2016 World Series?  Did you know people are speculating that the Mets could do what the Royals just did?  Really?

It’s too early to start this nonsense. People playing this game is the reason casinos and bookies made so much money. If the 2015 Mets return, I can see you taking the bet. If the 2016 Mets are a better team than the 2015 Mets on paper, I can see you taking the bet. However, it’s way too early to determine what will happen next year. 

We have no idea what the Mets are going to do. We don’t know if the Mets have money to spend. The Mets got rid of their two best trade chips. Would it shock anyone to see the Opening Day double play combination be Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada?  Would that combination give you confidence that the Mets can return to the playoffs let alone the World Series?  Me neither. 

With the pitching staff, it’s easy to get excited. However, it wasn’t enough in June and July. I need to see more before I get excited for 2016. I’m curious to see what will happen. 

No Need to Panic

Remember when #PanicCity was a thing?  I do too. It was justified then. When Sandy Alderson bestowed the moniker on Mets fans, here was the previous night’s starting lineup:

  1. Curtis Granderson
  2. Ruben Tejada
  3. Lucas Duda
  4. Michael Cuddyer
  5. Wilmer Flores
  6. Darrell Ceciliani
  7. Kevin Plawecki
  8. Jacob deGrom
  9. Dilson Herrera

Look at that lineup. The number two and five hitters rotate in the eighth spot, at least until Tejada went down. The number three hitter bats fifth. The cleanup hitter is on the bench. The seventh hitter is a backup. The sixth and ninth hitters are not on the playoff roster. 

This is a different team than that one. This team was one out away from winning Game One. They had a bad game against an erratic pitcher, who has pitched well against the Mets in the past. Why must it be more than that?  

We just watched our young pitchers now down an incredible Cubs offense. We know good pitching beats good hitting. It’s the reason the Mets are in the World Series. This isn’t the same old Mets offense. They can actually hit now. 

The Mets are getting a needed day off to collect themselves. They’re going to set things straight. They’re going out tomorrow, and they’re going to play their best game of the year. Then they’ll go out in Game 4 and do the same thing, and so on and so on. 

Ya Gotta Believe!

Rios Standing in the Way of Mets History Again

On one warm May nightMatt Harvey took the mound. I had never seen anyone as dominant as Harvey was that night. To say he was perfect was an understatement. 

Through 6.2 innings, no one could touch him. He had already struck out nine batters. He walked no one. Then Alex Rios stepped to the plate. I remember leaning over to my brother and saying, “this is it right here. He’s the only one that can do it.”  Then he did. 

Actually, it wasn’t that simple. Rios hit the ball to an out of position Ruben Tejada, who couldn’t get enough on the ball to throw out a speedy Rios. That was all Harvey allowed. After that, he would strike out another three and pitch nine innings needing just 107 pitches. Believe it or not, it was a no decision as the Mets couldn’t score until the tenth inning. 

A lot has happened since then. Harvey had Tommy John. He went from fan favorite to villain to fan favorite again. Rios has changed teams twice in the hopes of making the postseason. He did this year. In Game One, he faces off against Matt Harvey for the first time since that fateful at bat. 

Yet again, Alex Rios stands in the way of the Mets making history. It’s time to rewrite the ending.